Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA

Transcription

1 Soy Canada SOYBEAN PROCESSING WORKSHOP PRESENTATION NOVEMBER 16, 2017 BRANDON, MANITOBA

2 Overview 1) Soy Canada & Mandate 2) Soybean Sector Update & Trends 3) Growth in Western Canada 4) Commodity Soybean Protein Levels 5) Canadian FTAs - Soy Products 6) Soy Canada s Strategic Plan 2

3 Soy Canada Members / Les membres de Soy Canada

4 Our Mandate TRADE POLICY & MARKET ACCESS GOVERNMENT RELATIONS & INDUSTRY PROFILE BUILDING COORDINATE RESEARCH & INNOVATION SUPPORT MARKET DEVELOPMENT Maintain and expand market access by working to remove barriers Seek improved trade policies/agreements Communicate and educate at all levels Build strong relationships Advocate for funding Align efforts across Canada Support and collaborate with research organizations Promote Canadian soybeans Develop new markets Promote new uses 4

5 Canadian Soybean Sector Snapshot Record high acreage and production levels across Canada: Acreage increased by 30% over the last year to 7.2 million acres Production to increase by 27% over the last year to 8.3 million tonnes 2016 exports reached 4.8 million tonnes valued at $2.8 billion 2016 Farm Cash Receipts climbed to $2.8 billion Soybean sector contributes $5.4 billion to Canada s GDP Over 31,000 farmers are growing soybeans Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables, 2016 Census, Soy Canada Economic Impact Assessment 5

6 Acreage & Yield Trends Acreage % Increase 6.5 Seeded Area (acres) 2,971,300 7,282, % % Increase 45 Average Yield Yield (bu/ac) % Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables 6

7 Production & Export Trends Production (MT) % Increase 3,335,900 8,321, % Production Exports (MT) (f) % Increase 1,910,600 6,000, % Exports (f) Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables 7

8 Soybean Processing Trends Processing (MT) (f) % Increase 1,296,412 1,900,000 47% 2 Volume of Canadian Soybean Processing ( ) Tonnes (millions) (f) Source: Canadian Oilseed Producers Association (COPA), AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, October 13,

9 Soybean Sector National Outlook Soybeans are forecast to be the 3 rd largest exported crop from Canada Domestic processing is forecast to rise marginally to 1.9 million tonnes Exports expected to rise to 6 million tonnes World supply of soybeans estimated to rise to 4.4 billion bushels Source: AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, October 13, 2017, USDA 9

10 Soybean Sector National Outlook (continued) 1,200 1, China U.S. Japan Top export markets: China, U.S., Japan, Europe, Asia EU decision on reregistration of glyphosate will have a significant impact on market access Increase in Chinese soybean imports expected to be modest resulting from domestic agriculture reforms Chinese efforts at encouraging the utilization of feed mixes with a large soy meal component may positively impact demand Source: Statistics Canada CATSNET Analytics 10

11 Soybean Sector National Outlook (continued) Soybean prices are forecast to decrease from last year to $390 to $430/t. Impacted by: Strengthening CDN Dollar Weaker USDA estimated weighted farm price Higher crude oil prices Key factors to watch: Harvest progress in Eastern and Western Canada US crop conditions and harvest progress US export sales South American planting conditions The strength of Chinese buying Source: AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, October 13, 2017, USDA 11

12 Western Canada Acreage Trend Fastest expanding crop in Western Canada Soybean seeded area has increased by 506% since 2010 to 3.1 million acres in 2017 Soybean acreage represents roughly 5 percent of principal field crop total planted acres Acres (Millions) WEST EAST Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables 12

13 Western Canada Production Trend (tonnes) Crop % Increase Soybeans 435, , ,200 1,186,600 1,271,000 1,570,300 1,971,500 3,029, % Lentils 2,004,800 1,573,500 1,537,900 2,261,700 1,987,000 2,540,500 3,248,200 2,438,600 22% Peas, dry 3,018,200 2,502,000 3,340,800 3,960,800 3,810,100 3,200,700 4,835,900 3,861,600 28% Canola 12,688,100 14,498,400 13,766,500 18,461,500 16,351,300 18,316,500 18,361,300 19,633,900 55% Wheat, all 21,062,200 22,715,900 25,115,100 34,911,900 27,413,900 25,687,700 28,803,800 24,477,400 16% Oats 2,071,200 2,839,200 2,512,300 3,606,800 2,676,700 2,974,400 2,837,000 3,546,100 71% Beans, all dry 107,900 85, , , , , , ,700 68% Barley 6,984,300 7,432,000 7,488,800 9,748,300 6,701,800 7,785,900 8,371,500 6,916,300-1% Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables 13

14 Increasing Protein Levels Major R&D priority of the Canadian soybean sector relates to increasing protein levels in commodity soybeans High protein soybeans command a premium in the marketplace because of the rich and nutritional value they offer in livestock feeds New variety technology exists to combine yield, maturity and protein characteristics into one Increasing protein level in the west has a large role in attracting regional processing investment 14

15 Increasing Protein Levels Western Canadian protein levels are on the rise and are competitive against the U.S. In 2016, the average protein level of commodity soybeans in Western Canada climbed to 38.7%. In 2016, the average protein level of commodity soybeans the U.S. was 39.5% 41.0 Average U.S. Soybean Protein Levels 41.0 Average Western Canada Soybean Protein Levels Protein % (dry matter) Protein % (dry matter) Source: Canadian Grain Commission Harvest Survey 2016, USSEC Soybean Quality Annual Report

16 Canadian Trade of Soy Oil & Meal Products Federal government recently concluded or in the process of pursuing multiple free trade agreements (FTA) with key export markets: CETA provisionally came into force this Fall, eliminating EU import tariffs on Canadian soybean oil and meal products TPP - currently under renegotiation - will reduce or eliminate all tariffs on soybean products exported to TPP countries, including existing tariffs on soybean oil in Japan, Australia, Malaysia and Vietnam, as well as soybean meal shipped to Vietnam NAFTA Existing agreement sets import tariffs on soy oil and meal products at zero. Canadian negotiators are seeking to maintain the existing tariff arrangement 16

17 Soy Canada Strategic Plan: 10 Million Acres of Opportunity Plan to double the growth of the soybean sector over the next decade Production targets, natural capital commitments, food-grade soybean production targets, processing and export targets Well on track to reaching production goals and targets 17

18 Soy Canada Goals & Targets Double production in the next decade TOTAL SEEDED AREA (ACRES) 5,467,100 10,000,000 Eastern Canada 3,592,100 4,000,000 Western Canada 1,875,000 6,000,000 YIELD (BUSHELS/ACRE) Eastern Canada Western Canada TOTAL PRODUCTION (TONNES) 6,462,700 13,000,000 Eastern Canada 4,491,200 5,750,000 Western Canada 1,971,500 7,250,000 Increase world-leading high-quality of food-grade production by 25% FOOD-GRADE PRODUCTION (TONNES) 1,250,000 1,800,000 SEEDED ACRES 1,000,000 1,250,000 Build on Canadian soybeans contribution to natural capital Canada s soybean sector will work to improve the natural environment that supports our industry Increase competitiveness, exports and processing of commodity soybeans PROTEIN CONTENT Dry matter basis (13% moisture) Be recognized in Canada and around the world as a global leader in sustainable production of high-quality soybeans Eastern Canada 40.6 (35.3) 41.1 (36) Western Canada 38.7 (33.7) 40.2 (35) Whole Soybean Exports (Tonnes) 4,500,000 10,500,000 Processing Capacity (Tonnes) 1,878,000 2,500,000

19 Thank You 19