Brief on Food Security and Nutrition Conditions

Transcription

1 Brief on Food Security and Nutrition Conditions Eastern and Central African Region FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group Nairobi, 16 th

2 Stressed and Crisis food insecurity situation (IPC Phase 2 & 3) persists in the region. Pockets of Emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4) also evident.

3 Somalia 2012 Gu production is expected to be well below average in agropastoral areas of southern & central Somalia due to poor April-June rains, leading to huge consumption gaps. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) Nutrition situation among the IDPs and urban population in Mogadishu has improved considerably since July The progress is mainly attributed to the large-scale humanitarian interventions (feeding, health and food security), decreased morbidity levels and improved food security indicators. (Joint Assessment, 19 July 2012) Post-Gu Assessment is on-going. The IPC analysis results will be ready by end of (FSNAU, July 2012). Kenya Number of people in need is likely to increase from 2.2 million to at least 2.4 million as the lean season intensifies. Long Rains Assessment is on-going, the results will be ready in September. (KFSSG, 23 July 2012) Severe conflict and displacements occurring in marginal cropping areas bordering eastern pastoral areas due to escalating resourcebased conflicts as pastoralists invade farms. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) According to July 2012 nutrition surveys, most of northern Kenya districts have experienced significant improvement in nutrition situation compared to the June/July Turkana East, West, North and South all have reduced GAM & SAM rates. However, Wajir South is still critical, GAM of 23.1% & SAM of 4.6%. The situation has remained poor due to insecurity that impacted on nutrition activities in the area. (Unicef, 26 July 2012)

4 Sudan According to the latest IPC analysis, about 4.4 million people are food insecure (IPC Phases 3 & 4). (FSTS-IPC Analysis, 16 July 2012). Areas in emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4) include North Darfur, Red Sea & Kassala states. Main causes are civil unrest, internal displacements, poor access to food and water. (FSTS-IPC Analysis, 16 July 2012). Severe floods in eastern parts of Kassala State is causing displacements and loss of livelihoods, including crops and livestock. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) High malnutrition rates have been reported in Red Sea (35% GAM), North Darfur (22.9% GAM) and Blue Nile (16.1% GAM). (FSTS-IPC Analysis, 16 July 2012). South Sudan Emergency food insecurity (IPC Phase 4) persists in the border states of Northern Bar El Ghazal, Unity, Warrap, Upper Nile and Jonglei States. (FEWS NET, 6 Aug 2012) Harvesting of cereals going on in the bi-modal rainfall areas of Greater Equatoria (Western, Central & Eastern Equatoria states). In the uni-modal rainfall areas, crops are still at vegetative stage and harvest is expected to start at the end of October. (FAO-GIEWS, 26 July 2012) According to a July 2012 integrated nutrition & food security survey conducted in Yida refugee camp in Unity State, malnutrition and child mortality rates have risen to emergency levels (GAM of 21.8% & SAM of 6.1 %). As a result of conflict in South Kordofan in Sudan, the Yida camp in Unity State of South Sudan now hosts nearly 60,000 refugees, with new arrivals each day. (FEWS NET, 6 Aug 2012)

5 Burundi Crisis level food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) remains in the central plateau and the eastern areas bordering Tanzania. 76,450 households in need of special humanitarian assistance - support on livelihoods access. (WFP & IPC/FAO, 4 Aug 2012) Crop production of 2012B season crops, which contributes to about half of annual food production, is 3% better than for 2011B. Main constraints are low access to land and agricultural inputs, plant diseases and erratic rainfall. (CFSAM/MoA, 25 July 2012) Chronic malnutrition rates persist due to continued food deficits, among other factors. However, there has been a notable decrease in the admission numbers of malnourished children between January 2011 & June (UNICEF, Aug 2012) Ethiopia Stressed & Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phases 2 & 3) persist in the south & south east (Somali, Oromia & SNNPR regions) and in the north (Amhara & Afar) due to the delayed and belowaverage Feb-May Belg & Apr-June Gu rains. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) However, the pastoral areas of southern Somalia, Oromia lowlands and SNNPR have reported improved livestock productivity due to good pastures. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) The Belg 2012 Seasonal Assessment has been completed. The revised Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD) to be released any time soon.

6 Over 17.5 million people in the region are still in need of humanitarian assistance (as of July 2012) Country Local Somali refugees Other refugees Total Djibouti 180,000 16,750 3, ,067 Kenya 2,200, ,394 91,479 2,823,873 Somalia 2,510, ,106 2,512,106 Ethiopia 3,244, , ,356 3,581,504 South Sudan 3,733, ,587 3,937,009 Sudan 4,463,861 * 0 0 4,463,861 Total 16,331, , ,845 17,518,420 Sources : Djibouti: UNOCHA, 10 February 2012 Kenya: KFSSG (Short Rain Assessment, 12 March 2012) Somalia: FSNAU, April The number of local population includes IDPs Ethiopia: Humanitarian Requirements Document (HRD), Government of Ethiopia, November 2011 South Sudan: South Sudan Food Security Technical Secretariat, IPC analysis (20 April 2012) Sudan: Sudan Food Security Technical Secretariat, IPC analysis (16 July 2012). *Provisional estimates, final figures to be released later. Refugee figures : UNHCR, 30 June 2012 One year after the peak of the HoA Food Crisis that affected over 22 million people, lots of people are still in need of humanitarian assistance.

7 Global food prices rose twice as fast as inflation in the last decade According to a recent study by The Economist Intelligence Unit, the global food prices rose twice as fast as inflation in the last decade. These trends point to a deeper and more lasting concern of chronic food insecurity. (The Economist Intelligence Unit-EIU, July 2012) Huge price swings for the staple foods (wheat, maize and rice) made matters worse, disrupting markets and harming both producers & consumers. (EIU, July 2012) Sub-Saharan African countries are the most food insecure. Burundi, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) take the bottom three spots of the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). (EIU, July 2012) High oil & input prices, high production costs, climate change & variability suggests that high food prices and price volatility will threaten global food security for at least the next decade.

8 Global food prices increased sharply in July as lower yields are projected According to the FAO Food Price Index, global food prices rose sharply in July compared to their June level due to a jump in the grain and sugar prices. The July surge of the Index followed 3 months of decline. (FAO-GIEWS, 9 Aug 2012) Maize prices went up by 23% following lower yield prospects for the 2012 maize crop which could be affected by hot & dry weather conditions in the main producing areas in the United States. (FAO-GIEWS, 9 Aug 2012) International prices of wheat rose by 19% in July due to lower production prospects occasioned by dry & hot weather in the Russian Federation and reduced spring 2012 crop planted in the US. (FAO- GIEWS, 9 Aug 2012) However, rice prices remained relatively unchanged compared to June as the international supplies remained high with low demand. (FAO-GIEWS, 9 Aug 2012) Overall, the food prices remained higher than the 5-year average prices but lower than last year s prices. Source: FAO-GIEWS (9 August2012)

9 Regional food prices remained high in July as the world prices rose sharply Regional cereal prices continued to rise in July mainly because of low market supply in line with seasonal trends and strong regional demand. (FAO-GIEWS, July 2012) In Tanzania, maize prices remain high despite the newly harvested msimu crops as traders are holding stocks in anticipation of a strong demand from neighbouring countries (especially Kenya). Some decline in maize prices is expected with the arrival on markets of the bulk of masika crops in August. (FAO-GIEWS, 13 July 2012) Maize prices in Kenya continued to rise as the lean season progresses. Prices are expected to remain high until end of August when the newly harvested crops enter the market. (FAO- GIEWS, 16 July 2012) Since mid-2011, cereal prices have registered an increasing trend in most markets, reaching record prices in June/July In July 2012, price increase of % for sorghum & maize in Juba. Next harvests in Sept when prices could drop. (FAO-GIEWS, 26 July 2012)

10 The seasonal June-September rainfall is performing well Cumulated rainfall from 1 st June to 31 st July. Difference from long term average( ) Source: JRC - TAMSAT End of July marks the middle of the season for the uni-modal rainfall areas in Sudan, South Sudan, Djibouti and large parts of Ethiopia. The overall performance of the June-September rainfall is positive, despite erratic onset in some areas like the Central Ethiopian Highlands The previous season rainfall deficits remain a problem for the bi-modal areas such as large parts of Somalia and Coastal Kenya.

11 Rainfall importance for different parts of the region Uni-modal & Bi-modal rainfall areas in HoA Seasonal Rainfall Significance: Jun/Aug Cropping & pasture areas in HoA The June-Sept rains are particularly important in Sudan, South Sudan, western and northern Ethiopia, northern Uganda, coastal areas of Somalia and Kenya, as well as western Kenya (yellow areas of the Uni and bimodal rainfall maps, except Tanzania). June-Sept rains less significant in red shaded areas on the map (contribute less than 10% of annual rainfall).

12 Good vegetation conditions in the region, but eastern parts affected by low March- June rains Generally good vegetation conditions in Sudan and South Sudan, Northern Uganda, improving greenness over Ethiopian Highlands (more rain expected) The effects of the below average March-June rainy season remain clearly visible in Eastern Kenya, Southern Somalia and parts of Tanzania.

13 Generally good maize crop development except eastern Kenya & southern Somalia Crop Model (Maize) July 2012 Water satisfaction index for different vegetative stages of maize shows good vegetative conditions in South Sudan, Uganda, Eastern and Central Ethiopia. The red-shaded areas in Eastern Kenya and Southern Somalia refer to the final stages of the March-June season.

14 Enhanced rainfall forecasted in Sudan, South Sudan and the Ethiopian highlands Forecast Rainfall Anomalies (mm): Aug- Oct 2012 Source: ECMWF Basin Excess Rainfall Map-Catchments (August, Dekad 1, 2012) Source: FEWS NET Rainfall forecasts for the uni-modal areas in the region for the period August October are generally positive, mainly due to a new El Nino phase. More information will be provided by the next GHACOF taking place on of August. The 10 days forecast from ECMWF shows heavy rains continuing over large parts of Sudan and South Sudan as well as in the Ethiopian highlands. There is increased likelihood of flooding in eastern Sudan and northern Ethiopia.

15 Regional Seasonal Calendar Where we are now! Note: This calendar is for illustrations only as it is not yet updated to reflect current changes in Sudan and South Sudan Source:

16 Regional Food Security Outlook Somalia Poor households in lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Lower Shabelle and Bakool regions are expected to remain in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) through the year. Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) will likely remain for pastoralists in the northwestern Guban and Coastal Deeh regions through December. Food security is likely to improve to Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) for agropastoralists in the northwest, Middle Juba & Middle Shabelle following favorable production through December. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) Kenya Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) from July-September could be reversed to Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) for pastoralist in the east & northeast; and marginal agricultural farm households in the southeast & Coastal lowlands. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) Livestock prices are likely to remain above average, in most areas except the southeastern pastoral zone. In the southeastern pastoral, livestock prices will likely decline due to poor body conditions and low demand for these livestock. (FEWS NET, 23 July 2012) Ethiopia Pastoralists in the northern Somalia region and Afar anticipated to remain in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3). Near total crop failure of root crop in SNNPR and a delayed Belg harvest will maintain households in the Crisis phase (IPC Phase 3) through the rest of the year. Belg-dependent areas in eastern Amhara, northeastern highlands & southeastern SNNPR are anticipated to remain in Crisis food insecurity (IPC Phase 3). (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012)

17 Regional Food Security Outlook Sudan Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) will be sustained through September in the SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan, Blue Nile and most of Darfur through September. Improvements to Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) are anticipated from October through December, in most areas, after the crop harvests. GoS-controlled areas are expected to remain in Stressed food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) through December. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) South Sudan Crisis levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3) are anticipated to remain in border areas of Northern Bar ElGhazal, Unity, Warrap, Upper Nileand Abyei, through December. However, improvements to Stressed levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 2) are anticipated in most of Jonglei and Northern Bar El Ghazal and eastern parts of Western Bar El Ghazal. (FEWS NET, 16 Aug 2012) Burundi The overall food security conditions are expected to improve in the coming months as the bulk of the newly harvested crops begin to reach the main markets. (FAO-GIEWS, 25 July 2012) Food deficits will remain critical in the areas of concern towards the end of the year as the crop production from season 2012 B is anticipated to last for only 3-4 months. (FAO, Aug 2012)

18 Schedule of FSNWG monthly meetings in 2012 Month Meeting day and date January Thursday, 19 th January 2012 February Thursday, 16 th February 2012 March Thursday, 15 th March 2012 April Thursday, 19 th April 2012 May Thursday, 17 th May 2012 June Thursday, 21 st June 2012 July Thursday, 19 th July 2012 August Thursday, 16 th September Thursday, 20 th September 2012 October Thursday, 18 th October 2012 November Thursday, 15 th November 2012 December Thursday, 20 th December 2012

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