John Deere. Committed to Those Linked to the Land. Market Fundamentals. Deere & Company June/July 2014

Transcription

1 John Deere Committed to Those Linked to the Land Market Fundamentals Deere & Company June/July 2014

2 Safe Harbor Statement & Disclosures This presentation includes forward-looking comments subject to important risks and uncertainties. It may also contain financial measures that are not in conformance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP). Refer to Deere s reports filed on Forms 8-K (current), 10-Q (quarterly), and 10-K (annual) for information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from information in this presentation and for information reconciling financial measures to GAAP. Guidance noted in the following slides was effective as of the company s most recent earnings release and conference call (14 May 2014). Nothing in this presentation should be construed as reaffirming or disaffirming such guidance. This presentation is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy any of Deere s securities. 2

3 Table of Contents Slide # Ag Fundamentals U.S. 4 Construction & Forestry Fundamentals U.S. 12 Other Regions 15 3

4 Ag Fundamentals United States

5 U.S. Farm Cash Receipts Projected total cash receipts remain at historically high levels $450 $400 $350 $300 $ Billions $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $ F 2014F Government Payments Total Cash Receipts Source: : USDA 11 February F 2014F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May

6 U.S. Farm Balance Sheet Strong $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% F 2014F $ Billions Farm Debt Farm Equity Debt to Equity Ratio (%) Debt to Asset Ratio (%) Source: : USDA 11 February F 2014F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May

7 Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Cotton Prices Nearby Futures: 3 June June 2014 Corn Soybeans Dollars Per Bushel /3/09 6/3/10 6/3/11 6/3/12 6/3/13 6/3/14 Dollars per Bushel /3/09 6/3/10 6/3/11 6/3/12 6/3/13 6/3/14 Dollars per Bushel Wheat /3/09 6/3/10 6/3/11 6/3/12 6/3/13 6/3/14 Dollars per Pound Cotton /3/09 6/3/10 6/3/11 6/3/12 6/3/13 6/3/14 Source: Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybeans & Wheat; Intercontinental Exchange Cotton 7

8 Uses of U.S. Corn Crop , % Bushels (millions) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, % 38.0% 35.0% 32.0% 29.0% 26.0% 23.0% % Exports Food, Seed, & Industrial (Less Ethanol) Ethanol & By-Products for fuel Feed & residual Ethanol & By-Products for Fuel as % of Total Corn Usage Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023, February

9 World Farm Fundamentals Global Stocks-to-Use Ratios 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cotton Wheat Corn Soybeans P Source: USDA 11 June

10 Agricultural Growth Energy U.S. Ethanol 6,000 U.S. Corn Used In Ethanol 5,000 4,000 Bushels (millions) 3,000 2,000 1, /00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14F 15/16F Source: Informa May

11 Daily Ethanol Margin Per Bushel Corn Grind Based on Nearby Futures Prices (Excl ITDA*) $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 6/3/2010 9/3/ /3/2010 3/3/2011 6/3/2011 9/3/ /3/2011 3/3/2012 6/3/2012 9/3/ /3/2012 3/3/2013 6/3/2013 9/3/ /3/2013 3/3/2014 6/3/2014 *Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization (ITDA) totals ~$0.50 and is often disregarded in margin calculations because it does not influence short term production decisions Source: Informa June

12 Construction & Forestry Fundamentals United States

13 U.S. Housing Starts Housing Starts (Millions of Units) Multi-Family Housing Starts Single-Family Housing Starts F Source: : U.S. Census Bureau April F 2014F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May

14 U.S. Construction Spending Billions, 2005 Chained $ s U.S. Construction Spending (Billions, 2005 Chained $ s) 2,300 70% 2,200 60% 2,100 50% 2,000 40% 1,900 30% 1,800 20% 1,700 10% 1,600 0% 1,500-10% 1,400-20% 1,300-30% 1,200-40% 1,100-50% 1,000-60% % % % % % % Residential Investment in Structures % Nonresidential Investment in Structures % Government Investment in Structures 100 Government Infrastructure Investment -150% 0-160% F 2014F % Total Construction Spend Source: : U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis April F 2014F: Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May

15 Other Regions

16 EU 28 Macroeconomic Data F GDP Growth (%) -0.3% 0.1% 1.5% Inflation (%) 2.4% 1.4% 1.0% Unemployment (%) 10.6% 11.1% 10.7% GDP Composition 25% 2% 73% Agriculture Industry Services Major Economies GDP Growth (%) Germany UK France Italy Spain F Source: The World Factbook, 2013 est. Labor Composition 23% 5% 72% Agriculture Industry Services Source: IHS Global Insight April 2014 Source: The World Factbook, 2012 est. 16

17 EU 28 Ag Economic Data Utilized agricultural area ~ 187 million hectares Arable land ~ 107 million hectares Growth potential for Ag equipment industry in Central & Eastern Europe Ongoing farm & Ag land consolidation and yield improvements Average farm size ~ 14 hectares Number of farms ~ 12 million Source: FAO, Eurostat Agricultural Census 2010 Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May 2014 $ Billions $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Crop Value of Production F Crops included: Wheat, Barley, Corn, Rapeseed, Sunflower Seed, Soybeans, Sugar Beet, Cotton and Rice Source: IHS Global Insight as of May 2014 Share of the World Market Production Net Exports Total Grains 15% 5% Wheat 20% 11% Barley 41% 22% Pork Meat 21% 30% Cow Milk 30% 19% Source: USDA, April 2014; average (Total Grains excl. Rice, Cow Milk: Net Exports of Dry Whole Milk Powder) 17

18 Economic Update EU 28 Fiscal 2014 Signs of economic stabilization and cyclical recovery Modest GDP growth expected Grain prices and farm income lower but to remain near long-term average Sound livestock margins Beef prices remain solid Near record milk prices will support dairy farmers Feed costs have eased Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May

19 EU 28 Government Support of Agriculture Common Agricultural Policy budget frozen at nominal levels (-14% in real terms) Portion of direct payments tied to environmentally-friendly farming practices Limited effects of direct payments redistribution in favor of new member states In nominal terms & over the full time period, Pillar I ~ constant but bigger cuts in Pillar II EUR bn (nominal prices) Pillar I (Direct Payments + Market Expenditures) Pillar II (Rural Development) Source: EU Commission, Agra Europe 19

20 Brazil Macroeconomic Data GDP Composition F Interest rate (%) 8.5% 8.2% 10.8% CPI Inflation (%) 5.4% 6.2% 5.9% Unemployment (%) 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% 25% 6% 69% GDP Growth (%) F Agriculture Industry Services Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 2013 Labor Composition 23% 17% 60% Agriculture Industry Services Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), 2012 Source: IHS Global Insight March

21 Brazil Ag Economic Data Gross Value of Agricultural Production Agricultural area ~ 275 million hectares 1 Planted area ~ 72 million hectares 2 ~ 17 million hectares brought into production from (~ half from pasture) Billions of Brazilian Real ~ 24 million hectares will be brought into production in next decade 3 ~ 4.5% CAGR in industry equipment sales through the end of the decade 3 Average farm size ~ 64 hectares Number of farms ~ 5 million 1 Includes pasture, excludes double crop 2 Includes double crop 3 Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May 2014 Source: FAO, Conab, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) F Crops included: Soybean, Corn, Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane, Coffee, Orange, and key Fruits & Vegetables. Source: Actual: MAPA (Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture), Mar : Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May 2014 Share of the World Market Production Net Exports Soybean 8% 19% Corn 28% 38% Sugar 21% 44% Beef 16% 17% Chicken 16% 36% Source: USDA, 2013; average

22 Brazil Government Support for Agriculture R$156 billion approved for 2013/2014 Agriculture and Livestock Plan* R$135 billion targeted towards Agribusiness mid/large-scale operations (17.4% higher than 2012/2013) R$21 billion targeted towards family agriculture (16.7% higher than 2012/2013). Special credit line for warehouse investments with 3.5% interest rate by year, 15 years of term and total budget of R$ 25 billion in 5 years. Government programs to support equipment purchases Tractor Engine Interest Grace Programs 1 hp Where Rate Period (Max) Term Maturity Mais Alimentos Brazil 2.0% 3 Years 10 Perennial Pró-Trator SP 0.0% 3 6 Not Defined Trator Solidário PR ~ 2.0% 2 10 Dec14 Finame PSI-BK Moderfrota All All Brazil Brazil 4.5%-6.0% 2 5.5% Dec14 Jun14 Combine Programs 1 Class Where Interest Rate Grace Period (Max) Term Maturity Mais Alimentos IV Brazil 2.0% 3 Years 10 Perennial Finame PSI-BK Moderfrota All All Brazil Brazil 4.5%-6.0% 2 5.5% Dec14 Jun14 1 Exclusively Finame qualified products. Minimum of 60% local content (weight and value) 2 Depending on Farm Size: 4,5 % if annual revenues < 90 million reais and 6% if annual revenue > R$90 million reais * Includes budget for financing input costs, investments and production trade. 3 Only used equipment 4 3 years if amount financed > R$100 million 22

23 CIS Macroeconomic Data F GDP Growth (%) 3.4% 2.0% 1.4% Inflation (%) 5.9% 6.4% 6.6% Unemployment (%) 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% GDP Composition (Russia) 38% 58% 4% Agriculture Industry Services Major Economies GDP Growth (%) F Source: The World Factbook, 2013 est. Labor Composition(Russia) 28% Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus 10% 62% Agriculture Industry Services Source: IHS Global Insight April 2014 Source: The World Factbook, 2012 est. 23

24 CIS Ag Economic Data Utilized agricultural area ~ 560 million hectares Arable land ~ 196 million hectares Significant opportunities exist to improve yield rates in all major crops Land under cultivation (sown crops) expected to remain flat over the next decade Deere estimates Western-style equipment used on <25% of farm land Average farm size ~ 995 hectares Number of farms ~ 0.5 million Source: FAO, CIS farm statistics (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) Deere & Company Forecast as of 14 May 2014 $ Billions $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Crop Value of Production F Crops included: Wheat, Barley, Corn, Sunflower Seed, Rapeseed, Soybeans, Sugar Beet Source: IHS Global Insight as of May 2014, Russia and Ukraine only Share of the World Market Production Net Exports Total Grains 9% 17% Wheat 14% 17% Barley 21% 24% Corn 4% 17% Sunflower 52% 32% Source: USDA, April 2014; average (Total Grains excl. Rice) 24

25 CIS Government Support of Agriculture Import policies affecting combine sales in Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus Increasing additional risks for Western competitors given the current Russia/Ukraine conflict and possible Western sanctions Restructured Russian National Ag Program expected to increase Ag support by ca. 50% by 2020 vs in nominal terms, but large annual fluctuations 2013 annual Ag federal budget increased by +18% vs. 2012, included additional regional subsidies 2014 annual Ag budget is moderating by -12% vs. 2013, esp. decreasing arable farms support (~-44%): reflecting overall budget sequestration trend Interest rate subsidies for Ag equipment largely eliminated, partly replaced with direct area payments to Ag operations and direct subsidies to domestic Ag equipment industry Ag equipment localization requirements re-considered/strengthened 25

26 China Macroeconomic Data F Interest rate (%) 6.3% 6.0% 6.0% Inflation (%) 2.7% 2.6% 2.0% Unemployment (%) 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% GDP Composition 9% 44% 47% GDP Growth (%) F Agriculture Industry Services Source: IHS Global Insight, 2013 est. Labor Composition 36% 35% 29% Agriculture Industry Services Source: The World Factbook, 2011 est. Source: IHS Global Insight

27 China Ag Economic Data $250 Crop Value of Production Utilized agricultural area ~ 520 million hectares Arable land & permanent crops ~ 126 million hectares 121 million hectares cultivated in 2011 Rural population % of total declined 9% Average farm size ~ 0.5 hectares Number of farms ~ 252 million $ Billions $200 $150 $100 $50 $ F Crops Included: Corn, Wheat, Rice, Oilseeds, and Cotton Source: IHS Global Insight 2013 Share of the World Market Production Source: USDA, 2013; average Net Exports Total Grains 20% 0.4% Wheat 17% 0.6% Corn 22% 0.1% Rice 30% 0.9% Cotton 28% 0.1% Source: FAO, IHS Global Insight, China National Bureau of Statistics 27

28 China Government Support of Agriculture 2014E Material Subsidy (basic subsidy for purchase of inputs) Grain Direct Subsidy (for growing encouraged crops) Seed Subsidy (for purchasing high-performing seed) Equipment Subsidy (for purchasing encouraged equipment) RMB (in billions) Source: China Ministry of Agriculture 28

29 India Macroeconomic Data F Interest rate (%) 10.6% 10.0% 10.1% Inflation (%) 9.7% 10.1% 7.7% GDP Composition 17% 18% 65% Unemployment (%) 8.8% 9.2% 9.2% GDP Growth (%) F Agriculture Industry Services Source: IHS Global Insight, 2013 est. Labor Composition 28% 53% 19% Agriculture Industry Services Source: The World Factbook, 2011 est. Source: IHS Global Insight

30 India Ag Economic Data Utilized agricultural area ~ 180 million hectares Arable land ~ 157 million hectares 140 million hectares net area sown (2007/08) Annual industry tractor sales > 600,000 units Average farm size ~ 1.2 hectares Number of farms ~ 129 million $ Billions $150 $120 $90 $60 $30 $0 Crop Value of Production F Crops included: Corn, Wheat, Rice, Oilseeds, Cotton Source: IHS Global Insight 2013 Share of the World Market Production Source: USDA, 2013; average Net Exports Total Grains 10% 6% Wheat 13% 4% Corn 2% 3% Rice 22% 25% Cotton 25% 19% Source: FAO, Tractor Manufacturers Association of India, Indian Ministry of Agriculture 30

31 India Government Support of Agriculture , , , , , , ,191 Fertilizer Subsidy Food Subsidy (for households) Interest Rate Subsidy (for farmers) Irrigation Subsidy Electricity Subsidy Other Subsidies (mainly for seeds) ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Rupees (in billions) Source: India Ministry of Agriculture ( ), India Ministry of Finance ( ) 31

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