Agricultural Innovation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction in the 21st Century: Issues for Africa and the World
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1 Agricultural Innovation for Food Security and Poverty Reduction in the 21st Century: Issues for Africa and the World Issues Paper for State of the World 2011: Innovations that Nourish the Planet Annex 1. Overview of Hunger and Food Security Sara J. Scherr, Courtney Wallace, and Louise Buck Ecoagriculture Partners Contact: th Street, NW, Suite 301, Washington, DC USA Tel: (+1) ; Fax: (+1) ; April 2010
2 Table of Contents Introduction...1 Patterns of Hunger and Food Insecurity...1 Agricultural Production Trends...6 Environmental Threats to Food Security...11 Figures and Tables Figure 1. World Population Growth by Region, Figure 2. Countries Facing Food Crises, Figure 3. Countries in Crisis Requiring External Assistance... 2 Figure 4. Number of Undernourished People Worldwide, (millions)... 3 Figure 5. Share of Undernourished in sub-saharan Africa, by Subregion, Figure 6. Dietary Diversity in High- and Low-Income Countries, by Source (percentage)... 5 Figure 7. Children Aged 6 23 Months in sub-saharan Africa Receiving Appropriate* Number of Food Groups... 6 Figure 8. Global Agroecological Zones... 8 Figure 9. Share of Total Arable and Permanent Cropland Irrigated Figure 10. Total Production versus Per Capita Production in Africa, Figure 11. Projected Loss of Food Output Due to Climate Change, Figure 12. Projected Loss of Cereal Output in Africa, Figure 13. Global Change in Agricultural Productivity, Figure 14. Historical Livestock Losses in Africa as a Result of Drought Figure 15. Likely Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Forestry Table 1. Net Buyers of Staple Foods, by Country... 4 Table 2. Agricultural Extent by Agroclimatic Zone and Slope Class... 7 Table 3. Global Agroecosystems by Area and Population... 7 Table 4. Global Structure of Food Provision by Food Category and Ecosystem Type, Table 5. Estimated Rates of Return on Agricultural R&D Table 6. Impact of Sustainable Agriculture Practices on Food Production and Carbon Sequestration
3 Introduction This Annex provides an overview of the basic facts about hunger and food insecurity, to enable authors of State of the World 2011 to position their contributions within the broader context globally and in Africa. It can also help stimulate discussion among authors about which of these facts are indeed considered true and which are considered suspect, and where there are serious disagreements of fact or interpretation. This Annex considers three elements: patterns of hunger and food insecurity, agricultural production trends, and environmental threats to food security. Please note that the numbers provided in both the Annex and the Issues Paper represent best estimates; while not completely accurate, they are the best we have and reflect larger trends. Patterns of Hunger and Food Insecurity Currently, the world is home to an estimated 1 billion hungry people, up from less than 850 million in (See Figure 1.) Crucial to the task of reducing global hunger is understanding who the hungry are and how the characteristics of this cohort are changing in the face of issues such as food pricing volatility, climate change, conflict, and population growth. Figure 1. World Population Growth by Region, Source: UN; Binswanger-Mkhize 2009 The FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) continuously monitors countries in crisis; the countries that persist or are frequently on this list are regarded as hunger hotspots. As of August 2008, an estimated 33 countries in crisis required external food assistance. (See Figure 2.) In 2007, a record 47 countries required emergency assistance; of these, 27 were in Africa, 10 in Asia, and 10 elsewhere. 1
4 Figure 2. Countries Facing Food Crises, 2008 Source: FAO 2009a From the early 1990s to 2000, an average of 15 African countries faced food crises annually, and in 2000 that number reached about 25 (FAO 2009a). Kenya, Lesotho, Somali, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe all experienced exceptional shortfalls in aggregate food production and supplies due to factors such as adverse weather, lingering effects of civil strife, HIV/AIDS pandemic, low productivity, and problems of economic transition. War-related damage caused widespread lack of food access in Sierra Leone, and more than 10 countries, including Chad, Ethiopia, and Uganda, experienced severe localized food insecurity due to refugees, crop failure, and other factors (FAO 2009a). (See Figure 3.) Figure 3. Countries in Crisis Requiring External Assistance Source: FAO 2009b 2
5 Worldwide, 848 million people suffered from chronic hunger in , with the vast majority of these 832 million living in developing countries. (See Figure 4.) Of this subgroup, 65 percent live in just seven countries: India, China, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Ethiopia (FAO 2009a). Figure 4. Number of Undernourished People Worldwide, (millions) Source: FAO 2009a Substantial population increases in sub-saharan Africa from 200 million in the early 1990s to 700 million by have not been matched with equal developments in agriculture. But even as the total number of undernourished increased by 43 million, the share of people suffering from chronic hunger decreased from 34 to 30 percent. Most of the increase in hungry people occurred in a single country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, due largely to the widespread and persistent conflict in the country. (See Figure 5.) Figure 5. Share of Undernourished in sub-saharan Africa, by Subregion, * Excluding Democratic Republic of the Congo; Source: FAO 2009a 3
6 While the issue of hunger in Africa has garnered significant attention in recent years, it is important to note that malnutrition and hunger are also prevalent in South Asia, as well as in pockets of other regions (see the Millennium Hunger Report). Additionally, both rural and urban hunger persist in India, where the Green Revolution is considered to have been a success. A household is defined as a net food buyer when the value of food staples it produces is less that the value of food staples it consumes. Poor households tend to be net buyers of food, even in rural areas where agriculture and staple food production are major sources of livelihood (FAO 2009a). Table 1 illustrates that, for selected developing countries, approximately three-quarters of rural households and 97 percent of urban households are net food buyers. An important implication of this finding is the possible misconception that rural households can grow all of their own food, which may prevent a full understanding of how to most effectively alleviate hunger. Table 1. Net Buyers of Staple Foods, by Country Source: FAO 2009a Diet composition is also critical; simply eating and adequate amount of calories is not sufficient. Diverse diets are healthier, and the poor in developing countries often suffer disproportionately from malnutrition due in part to the fact that diverse, nutritionally well-balanced diets are unaffordable (FAO 2009a). Figure 6 illustrates the disparity in dietary diversity between lowand high-income countries. 4
7 Figure 6. Dietary Diversity in High- and Low-Income Countries, by Source (percentage) Source: FAO 2009a An improperly diverse diet leads to a host of deleterious effects, especially in children. A diverse diet includes not only staple crops but also vegetables and fruits, and traditional sources of protein. On average, only percent of sub-saharan African children under the age of two have an appropriately diversified diet. (See Figure 7.) In Togo and Niger, this number is as low as 10 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa has an undernourishment rate of 30 percent, compared to 17 percent in developing countries as a whole. It also has higher rates of stunting and low weights in children under 5. There is an often blurry discourse between achieving food security in terms of robust and reliable systems of food supply and distribution for the general population, versus achieving food security for impoverished populations that are experiencing or at imminent risk of hunger or inadequate food intake. This paper, and the SOW11 report, focus on the latter, but it is important to be explicit about how the two relate, and how strategies to achieve the two may be complementary or in conflict. 5
8 Figure 7. Children Aged 6 23 Months in sub-saharan Africa Receiving Appropriate* Number of Food Groups Source: FAO 2009a Agricultural Production Trends Strategies to nourish the world must take into account regional climatic and agroecological conditions and potential for example, the potential for droughts or hurricanes. Figure 8 gives a breakdown of global agroecological zones. Table 2 lists the land area within the agricultural extent for agroclimatic zone, and Table 3 presents the population shares (rural and urban) residing within the agricultural extent of the global agroecosystems. 6
9 Table 2. Agricultural Extent by Agroclimatic Zone and Slope Class Source: Wood et al 2000 Table 3. Global Agroecosystems by Area and Population Source: Wood et al
10 Figure 8. Global Agroecological Zones Source: Wood et al
11 Trends in agriculture production can help us to understand where food is going and where it needs to go. Table 4 shows annual and perennial crop production, irrigated and rain-fed production, and an assessment of the food and feed utilization of crops. Fifty-three percent of food crops, on average, end up as food, 21 percent is used for feed, and the remaining 26 percent is categorized as seed, waste, or other industrial processing. A significant quantity of the capture of wild fisheries is used for feed, mainly for aquaculture but also for livestock (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2008). Table 4. Global Structure of Food Provision by Food Category and Ecosystem Type, 2000 Source: Wood and Ehui 2005 Increasing the proportion of irrigated agricultural land has led to increases in productivity and reduced the volatility of yields. In about a quarter of the world s irrigated agricultural systems, the rate of water withdrawal exceeds the rate of water renewal. Land degradation is often the result of mismanaged water resources and irrigation practices, leading to losses in productivity and cropland. Growing demand for water resources coupled with climate change means that efficiency in the management of available water resources becomes a necessary condition for productivity increases in agriculture and for food security. (See Figure 9.) 9
12 Figure 9. Share of Total Arable and Permanent Cropland Irrigated Source: FAO 2009a Issues of food insecurity, widespread hunger, and undernutrition particularly affect sub-saharan Africa. Africa has large pockets of crisis where a complicated mix of non-economic and nonagricultural production factors couple with economic depression and low yields or drought. In general, Africa experiences high growth in production overall, but not per capita. (See Figure 10.) Infrastructure and urbanization play large roles in the nourishment of the continent. So too does eliminating conflict. Figure 10. Total Production versus Per Capita Production in Africa, Source: FAOSTAT
13 Environmental Threats to Food Security Extreme weather events, global average temperature increases, environmental degradation, increasing energy prices, and human settlement patterns such as urbanization or refuge seekers undeniably complicate the mission to nourish the world. Environmental degradation and other threats are projected to have large impacts on the global production platform, yet the natural environment and its ecosystem services is the very basis for all production. Around the world, cropland is increasingly being converted to other uses due to increasing urbanization, industrialization, energy demand, and population growth (UNEP 2009). Additionally, the effects of global warming are projected to take a significant toll on agricultural output potentials. Projections suggest that by 2080, output potential may be reduced by up to 60 percent for several African countries, with an average of percent dependent upon the effect of carbon fertilization. These effects are in addition to general water scarcity as a result of melting glaciers, change in rainfall patterns, and water overuse (UNEP 2009). (See Figures 11 and 12.) Figure 11. Projected Loss of Food Output Due to Climate Change, 2080 Source: UNEP
14 Figure 12. Projected Loss of Cereal Output in Africa, 2080 Source: UNEP 2009 Soil health is of paramount importance to agricultural production, but agricultural production often results in soil degradation. Figure 13 illustrates losses in land productivity due to land degradation. 12
15 Figure 13. Global Change in Agricultural Productivity, Source: UNEP 2009 Drought not only affects the production of cereals (as well as the availability of clean drinking water for human consumption) but also protein production. Figure 14 shows historical livestock losses in several African countries as a result of drought. Figure 14. Historical Livestock Losses in Africa as a Result of Drought Source: UNEP
16 Figure 15 provides another depiction of the projected impact of climate change on agriculture and forestry. While a 1 3 degree Celsius increase in global temperature is projected to cause slight increases in production at mid to high latitudes, production would be adversely affected if temperatures increase more than this (Binswanger-MKhize 2009). Additionally, extreme weather events are likely to reduce production below that which is predicted if mean temperature rises. Figure 15. Likely Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Forestry Source: Binswanger-MKhize 2009 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) summary report warns that climate change is likely to have severe impacts on Africa, probably more negative than positive. However, it cautions that findings are hampered by significant knowledge gaps for exampe of regional models and CO2 responses for crops other than cereals (IPCC 2007). Table 5 shows projected rates of return on agricultural R&D. Table 5. Estimated Rates of Return on Agricultural R&D Source: IPCC
17 The relevant questions pertaining to climate change include those of mitigation as well as adaptation. Table 6 provides a rundown of the impacts of sustainable agriculture practices on food production and carbon sequestration in soils and above-ground biomass, based on FAO farm typology. On average, global yields increased by 79 percent after the adoption of sustainable practices such as more efficient water use in both dryland and irrigated farming, improvements in organic matter and accumulation in soils and carbon sequestration, and/or pest, weed, and disease control emphasizing on-farm biodiversity and reduced pesticides through integrated pest management (IPM) or other techniques (FAO 2009a). Table 6. Impact of Sustainable Agriculture Practices on Food Production and Carbon Sequestration Source: UNEP
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