The sheep and sheep meat trade market. Second EU Sheep Meat Forum Brussels, February 25, 2016

Transcription

1 The sheep and sheep meat trade market Second EU Sheep Meat Forum Brussels, February 25, 2016

2 Partnering your agribusiness development Market research 45 years Focused on agribusiness Worldwide coverage Experts in the 5 continents Market due diligence Consulting 2

3 GMC: Comprehensive Global Coverage REGIONAL MARKET INSIGHTS, DATA & FORECASTS BY SPECIES Socio-economic assumptions Pig Poultry Beef Sheepmeat North America South America EU Middle East / North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Asia Oceania USA Canada Brazil Argentina All 28 Members Saudi Arabia Turkey South Africa Nigeria China Japan Australia NZ Mexico Uruguay Chile Columbia CIS Russia Egypt UAE +16 others Angola Kenya +42 others India South Korea Philippines Paraguay Ukraine Vietnam Venezuela Belarus Thailand Peru + other CIS Malaysia Indonesia GLOBAL SYNTHESIS Socio-economics Production Consumption Trade Prices Industrial developments Total Meat Global Pigmeat Global Poultry Global Beef Global Sheepmeat 5

4 Agenda International trade in sheep & goat meat Production issues The profitability problem 6

5 Millions tonnes Meat international trade developments Very small expansion of sheep and goat meat trade compared to other meats World meat trade volumes, Beef Pork Poultry meat Sheep & goat meat Source: Gira, based on FAO Sheep & goat meat trade rose from c. 0.5 mio t in 1961 to 1.2 mio in 2013 (CAGR +1.8%) 7

6 Meat international trade developments The share of meat production which is traded increased, except for sheep and goat meat World meat trade as a % of production, 1961, % 14% % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Beef Pork Poultry meat Sheep & goat meat Source: Gira, based on FAO 8

7 Supply: sheep & goat meat exporters AU & NZ accounting for >90% of world exports Major sheep & goat meat exporters, , '000 t cwe 1200 S.Am AU NZ Others Source: Gira compilations CAGRs: AU +2.1% - NZ -0.2% No other significant exporter has emerged (yet?) 9

8 Mio head '000 t cwe Mio head '000 t cwe Basically 2 exporters Facing profitability and climatic issues Declining flocks AU: -3.7%/year NZ: -2.8%/year Sheepmeat production AU: slightly rising: +0.3%/year Changing orientation from wool to meat NZ: -0.4%/year Better alternative productions Exports AU: +2.1%/year % of production: from 40% to 64% NZ: +0.5%/year % of production: >90% (stocks?) AU flock, production & exports, Flock Production Exports 0 0 Source: Gira compilations NZ flock, production & exports, Sharp flock productivity improvements Impact of droughts on production + exports Flock Production Exports Source: Gira compilations 0 10

9 Lamb/mutton split More lamb and less mutton as AU flock switches from wool to meat focus Shares of lamb vs. mutton in sheep meat trade, , '000 t cwe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mutton Lamb Source: Gira compilations 11

10 Expenditure index, constant prices Sheepmeat demand Quite flat, except in China and Russia 300 Sheep Sheepmeat expenditure expenditure* index, index, f (f) (2004 local (2004 currencies) L.C.) Based on 2004 producer prices CHINA RUSSIA 150 USA SOUTH AFRICA E.U. 100 OCEANIA URUGUAY 50 Source: GIRA GMC * Expenditure = producer prices x total consumption Weighted (consumption) averages 12

11 Demand: sheep & goat meat importers Not a very dynamic demand market: sheepmeat trade is more supply-driven than demand-driven Major sheep & goat meat importers, , '000 t cwe 1200 EU SU/RU N.Am ME/NA CN F.East Others Source: Gira compilations CAGRs: EU: -1.3% - US/CA: +6.3% - MENA: +0.5% - CN: +11.5% CN developments: opportunities for other world exporters? Volatility dependency risks 13

12 MENA Competition of live trade Live imports often exceeded sheep & goat meat imports in the mid 1990s Sharply declined since Less supplies AW restrictions in exporting countries But demand remained buoyant in MENA Still accounting for 25-35% of total shoat and shoat meat imports in the area AU major supplier Others Horn of Africa (Sudan, Somalia) EU 14

13 Sheepmeat trade flows, 2015 Flows in '000 t cwe > 200 Net importer Net exporter 15

14 Sheep & goat flocks Most of world flock in developing countries Generally hardy multipurpose breeds: wool, dairy and meat Hard data is frequently lacking Sheep and goat flocks, 2014 (mio head, FAO data) 16

15 Mostly for subsistence and/or local trade Sheep & goat flocks With few exceptions, highest numbers/capita in developing countries Sheep and goat flock to population ratio, 2010/14 (sheep & goat head/capita, FAO data) 17

16 Sheep & goat flock growth Concentrated in developing countries Long term flock growth mainly in Africa and Asia But falling in the traditional meat market oriented countries Sheep and goat flock CAGR from 1990/94 to 2010/14 (FAO data) 18

17 Sheep & goat meat production Few countries producing more than 0.1 mio tonnes Data issues Productivity issues in many countries In many countries, shoat meat is not part of a structured market economy Mostly informal slaughterings Sheep and goat meat production, 2013 (FAO data) 19

18 AU & NZ, EU, US, RU CN (& IN) major exceptions Sheep & goat meat production Little growth in the traditional meat industry countries Sheep and goat meat production CAGR from 1990/93 to 2010/13 (FAO data) 20

19 A serious profitability issue

20 Price index, constant prices Sheepmeat producer price trend Flat in AU/NZ and EU Sheepmeat Sheepmeat producer prices producer indices, prices f indices, (f) (2004 = 100 (2004 in local L.C.) currencies) 250 Based on 2004 producer prices CHINA SOUTH AFRICA RUSSIA OCEANIA E.U. URUGUAY Source: GIRA GMC 2015 Weighted (consumption) averages 22

21 Trade of other sheep & goat products Volatility is the rule Indices of world trade in various sheep and goat products, (1961 = 100) Sheep & goat skins Wool Cheese, sheep milk Source: Gira, based on FAO Sharp decline in wool trade competition from synthetic fibres. Poor wool prices Rising trade in sheep skins But (very) high volatility and declining prices 23

22 Index:2006 = 100 Sheep meat vs dairy industry Same situation of no price/unit gains over time 200 Deflated milk prices in Local Currency, Indices of deflated milk prices in local currencies, (2006 = Indexed on base 100) year 2006 = 100 Volatility 21% 150 Volatility 14% 100 Volatility 9% Volatility 15% Source: Gira compilations EU US CN NZ Economic gains to be made through efficiency