Russian agricultural- food exports and food security: how two tasks are combined
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1 Dmitri Rylko General director IKAR LLC Russian agricultural- food exports and food security: how two tasks are combined Samarqand, November 2, 2016
2 Russian agriculture: changing paradigm of sector development Two- fold devalualon caused by falling crude oil and gas prices Counter sanclons ShiNing and modifying government support *** Net result : booslng short and medium term compellveness of domeslc ag on domeslc and internalonal marketplace
3 Russian cross : crude oil and ruble price indexes
4 Russian government Keeping nominally same support level to agriculture (against the background of general absolute budget shrinkage in rubles and two- fold devalualon ShiNing subsidy support to industries import killers (highest short/medium/long term import subsltulon potenlal): greenhouses, commercial vegetables, horlculture, dairy, beef cavle Launching new subsidy tools, such as direct subsidy to ag machinery manufacturers, project financing, parlal fixed investment compensalon
5 Russian agricultural growth rates, % (2004 = 100) 170,0 +8% 160,0 150,0 +5,5% 140,0 +3% 130,0 120,0 110,0 100,0 CAGR Agriculture: 3,3% Crop: 3,6% Livestock: 2,6% 90,0 Agriculture Crop Livestock
6 Russian ag and food processing growth rates, % (2004 = 100) ,0% +5,5% CAGR Food industry: 2,9% Agriculture: 3,3% * Food industry Agriculture
7 Russian foreign ag trade, $ bln $20,8 mln $17,0 mln IKAR FORECAST $24,4 mln $43,2 mln Other countries Import EU Import CIS Import Other Countries Export EU Export CIS Export Russia is quite aggressively moving to zero agricultural trade balance
8 Structure of ag export from Russia, $ mln % 15% 17% 16% % 62% 60% 60% Other categories Beverages and spirits Fish and seafood * Live animals, meat, dairy Tobacco Cereals and oilseeds, oils and fats, flour, meal and cake, ready- to- eat products
9 Import structure by macro origins to Russia, $ bln EurEcUnion Under sancvons Others 20,8 21,3 16,5 15,2 18,8 14,4 6,5 5,8 3,7 4,4 3,6 3, *
10 Structure of ag import to Russia, $ mln % 3% 8% 14% 5% 15% 26% 7% 6% 7% 6% 23% 17% 18% 19% 19% 22% 21% 22% 22% * Fruits and vegetables Meat and dairy Tea, coffee, cocoa, other grocery Oilseeds Spirits and beverages Tobacco Other products
11 Some sectoral insights
12
13 Growing export orientafon of Russian oilseed market Sunflower market Rapeseed market TMT % 43% 61% 80% TMT / / / / /17* / / / / /17* DomesVc market Export (seed and oil) DomesVc market Export (seed and oil) Flaxseed market 92% 91% 2012/ / / / /17* TMT Safflower market 94% 78% 2012/ / / / /17* DomesVc market Export (seed only) DomesVc market Export (seed only)
14 Meat import subsftufon, TMT % 27% 27% 24% % 12% 10% * ProducVon Import Import share, %
15 Cheese import subsftufon, TMT % 48% 45% 49% % % 25% * ProducVon Import (excl. Belarus) Belarus Import share, %
16 Cheese import subsftufon, TMT % 48% 45% 49% % 23% 25% * Cheese producvon Cheese products Import (excl. Belarus) Belarus Import share, %
17 Veg import subsftufon, TMT % 33% 35% Cucumbers 37% 36% 26% Tomatoes 82% 81% 83% 82% 81% 78% 61% 16% * * ProducVon Import (excl. Turkey) Turkey Import share, % ProducVon Import (excl. Turkey) Turkey Import share, %
18 Retail market: esfmated share of domesfc and imported products, $ mln 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 DomesVc products Imported products
19 Netback as applied to agricultural markets: lessons to be learned The netback is calculated by taking all of the revenues from the crude oil, less all costs associated with ge`ng the oil to a market. Netback as applied to agriculture: On import- oriented market the local price is world price PLUS (domeslc tariff and NTM barriers) transportalon cost On self- sufficient/export oriented market the local price is world price MINUS (imporlng country tariff and NTM barriers) and transportalon cost
20 Netback concept as applied to the Russian poultry meat market 3,0 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 35% 27% 19% 13% 14% 13% 10% 5% 4% Share of import Imported broiler to Russia price DomesVc Price
21 Some pre- final subjeclve notes Food security and/or food independence Self sufficiency of first level BeVer (for agriculture, and the government!) to keep some industries reasonably net imporlng, rather than boost full self- sufficiency, if there is no obvious (potenlal) natural export compellveness We need a good and strong scien3fic theory and apparatus to check and measure it
22 Москва: две концепции продажи орехов/сухофруктов
23 Import of raisins to Russia by origins and customs value per kilo (2015) 5, ,55 4, , ,50 3, ,00 2,50 2,00 1,93 1,88 1,73 1, ,50 1,00 1,35 1,14 0, ,50 0, RSA TURKEY IRAN CHILE CHINA INDIA UZBEKISTAN AFGANISTAN KAZAKHSTAN Import, Tons Average price, $/kg
24 Thank you! Рахмат! Skype: Dimash457
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