ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES IN THE MEKONG DELTA, VIETNAM

Transcription

1 1 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONES IN THE MEKONG DELTA, VIETNAM Presenter: Dr. Le Canh Dinh Sub-National Institute of Agricultural Planning and Projection (Sub-NIAPP), MARD, Vietnam

2 Outline 1. Methodology: the AEZ model (FAO, 1996) 2. Application of the AEZ model in the Mekong Delta in the context of climate change adaptation 3. Discussion and conclusion 2

3 1.METHODOLOGY AEZ climate change application model (adapted from FAO, 1996)

4 2. APPLICATION: Lower Mekong Basin; The MD of Vietnam: 4 Mil. ha (12% area of Vietnam): - Agriculture land: 64.2%; - Forest land: 7.5%; - Special land: 6.4%; - Redential land: 3.0% - Unused land: 18.9%. Population (2013): 17.5 Mil (19,4% Population of VN).

5 13 p r o v i n c e s; 122 d i s t r i c t s/c i t i e s a n d 122 d i s t r i c t s a n d c i t i e s 13 p r o v i n c e s a n d 122 d i s t r i c t s a n d c i t i e s

6 Agro-ecological zones in the Mekong Delta Indicator for classifying: Water resources, sanility. Six Agro-ecological zones in the Mekong Delta: 1, Plain of Reeds 2, Long Xuyen Quadrangle 3, Central parts of the Mekong and Bassac rivers 4,Western areas of the Bassac river 5,Ca Mau peninsula 6, Coastal belt areas 6

7 Climate change scenario in the Mekong Delta Climate change scenario (B2): sea level rise 1m in the Mekong Delta (MONRE, 2012). 39% Areas inundated and 35% people are directly affected 7

8 Salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta Current 2010 Scenario 2030 (B2) Climate change 8

9 Scenario of flood inundation in the Mekong Delta 2000 Scenario 2030 (B2) Climate change 2nd Mekong Climate Change Forum 9

10 Land use types changing in six agro-ecological zones in the MD

11 LAND USE TYPES Irrigated land use rice crops (WS - SA) MONTH WS (a) (b) SA (a) (b) (a) (b) Note Deep flooded areas (a) (b) rice crops (WS - SA)/Fish WS/Fish SA/Fish rice crops (WS - SA - AW) WS SA AW Main land use types and crop calendar in the MD rice (WS - SA) - 01 upland crop (SS) upland crop (WS) - 02 rice crops (SA - AW) upland crops (WS - SS)- 01 rice crop (SA) rice crop (WS) - 01 industrial crop (Jute SA) Upland crop (WS) - rice crop (SA) rice crop (WS) - Prawn (SA) 10. Upland crops/ Cash crops 11. Coconut 12. Fruit trees Rainfed land use 13. High - yielding (RS) rice crop rainfed rice crops (SA-RS) upland crop (SA) - 01 rice crop (RS) SS SA WS WS SA AW WS SS SA WS SA SA WS WS Prawn 2 nd crop 3 rd crop 4 th crop 1 st crop Planting Planting High- yield RS SA RS SA RS rice (RS)/ Fish RS/Fish rice crop (RS)/ - Shrimp 2 RS Shrimp 1 Shrimp culture 18. Sugarcane 19. Pineapple 20. Shrimp culture (1 or 2 crops) 21. Melaleuca forest 22. Mangrove forest Planting Planting Shrimp 1st Shrimp 2nd Planting Planting Shalow flooded areas Shalow flooded areas Flooded areas WS : Winter - Spring crop ; SA : Summer - Autumn crop ; AW : Autumn - Winter crop ; SS : Spring - Summer crop ; RS : Rainy Season crop

12 3. CONCLUSION 1. Applying the AEZ model in the Mekong Delta in the context of climate change results in appropriate outcomes with related research. 2. In the context of climate change, flood inundation and salinity intrusion are two main indicators which affect agro-ecological systems in the Mekong Delta. 3. Proposed changes in land use types is one of strategies for adapting climate change as well as appropriate for socio-economic development scenario in the MD. 12

13 13 Thank you for your attention!