Outlook for the U.S. Florida and Manatee County January 11, 2018 Bradenton Area EDC
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1 Outlook for the U.S. Florida and Manatee County January 11, 2018 Bradenton Area EDC Hank Fishkind Fishkind & Associates, Inc Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817
2 How Do You Think Your Business Will Do in 2018? Log in to A = Better than 2017 B = Same as 2017 C = Worse than /11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 20 A B C
3 How Do You Think Your Business Will Do in 2019? A = Better than 2017 B = Same as 2017 C = Worse than /11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 30 A B C
4 Do You Think There Will Be a Recession in ? A = Yes B = No C = Do Not Know 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 40 A B C
5 Factors Shaping U.S. Outlook How much momentum? Tax Cuts and Jobs Act? Impact of structural change? Policies on trade and immigration? When will higher interest rates slow growth? 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 5
6 HOW MUCH MOMENTUM? 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 6
7 Why Care About GDP? Trajectory of GSP correlated with pathway of GDP Correlation = % of annual growth in GSP can be explained by growth GDP 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 7
8 RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATION 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 8
9 Forecasted 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 9
10 Change in Jobs Hiring up 87 consecutive months longest ever Job gains > 2M/Year for 7 years 3-Month average 203,700 highest since 9/2016 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 10
11 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 11
12 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12
13 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 13
14 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 14
15 Fed Target 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 15
16 TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 16
17 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act $1.5 trillion stimulus over 10 years Corporations 21% rate Shift to Territorial System taxed at U.S. rate (21%) on profits generated in U.S. and profits elsewhere taxed at rates in effect in those foreign countries and exempt from U.S. taxation Full expensing of investments for 5-years Expands areas for oil/gas exploriation Individuals Cut in rates and changes in brackets Double standard deduction $10,000 limit on SALT deductions $750,000 limit on mortgage interest deduction Repeals ACA Mandate to purchase insurance 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 17
18 Impact of Act on Your Business Now that the Act has passed, will you: Expand your business? Increase your investment? Hire more workers? If the answers to any of these questions is YES then vote A If not, vote B If you are unsure vote C 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 180 A B C
19 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 19
20 Impact on Households Source: Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 20
21 Composition of Net Tax Cuts Source: Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 21
22 Effects of the ACT Reform is needed, but stimulus is ill timed Economy operating at or near full employment Capacity utilization high Fed is embarked on program to raise interest rates and reduce money supply Add ½ % to GDP growth 2018 & 2019 Impact muted by composition of cuts which primarily go to higher income households with lower propensity to spend Investment impacts muted by structural changes Act cause interest rates to rise higher and faster Finance $1 trillion more debt over 10-years Fed is raising rates and shrinking money supply Ultimately, this will slow growth and lead to a recession 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 22
23 Policy Decisions Pending Major unresolved issues remain Debt ceiling Government budget Structural budget deficit Major unknowns and risks Foreign trade Immigration Mueller Investigtion Pander to the Base But Destructive Policies are Ultimately Unlikely NAFTA will be renewed Drastic immigration policies will not be imposed 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 23
24 STRUCTURAL CHANGE 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 24
25 Structural Change AI and Automation Globalization Immigration Income inequality Impact on real estate development Less demand for space Retail and office in particular Climate Change and Current Impacts 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 25
26 Low Growth Trajectory for Real GDP Growth Potential +/- 2% Growth GDP 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 26
27 Growth potential +/- 2% 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 27
28 Economic Policy Issues in a World of Structural Change Transformational forces Globalization/Trade Automation/Artificial Intelligence Migration Slow economic growth / low demand / low inflation / low wage growth Distributional issues for those left behind / political & economic issues Debt and structural issues in the budget 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 28
29 Current Impacts of Climate Change on Florida Increased frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones Increased nuisance flooding monthly in Miami Beach and the Keys Rising sea level and beach erosion Algal blooms and invasive plants/bugs Migration from Puerto Rico >500,000 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 29
30 $Billion Events Impacting the U.S. from Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). Florida subject to hurricanes which are the most damaging of events 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 30
31 Damage from Recent Florida Hurricanes 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 31
32 2017 Hurricanes in Perspective 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 32
33 U.S. FORECAST 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 33
34 What to Watch For 10-year Bond Rate Stock market and volatility Fed funds rate New claims for unemployment Policy decisions: immigration and trade 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 34
35 Up 15 BP since /11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 35
36 Low Volatility 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 36
37 INTEREST RATES 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 37
38 GDP Growth (Percent growth SAAR) 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 38
39 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 39
40 Florida Forecast
41 Average 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 41
42 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 42
43 Storm Caused 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 43
44 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 44
45 Gov Scott s Budget $87.3 B spending plan K-12 $7,497 a new high $180 tax cuts $800 M environmental programs Political budget designed to enhance run for Senate Offers something for most voters, but ultimately fails to meet State needs Spending up 2.9% Growth in population (2.2%) + inflation (2%) = 4.2% Budget results in a cut of 1.3% in real per capita terms K-12 spending will fall below $7,497 PR + enrollment growth Proposed constitutional amendment requiring a 2/3rds vote to raise taxes or fees 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 45
46 Existing Home Sales Sales volume up 2% Prices up 7% 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 46
47 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 47
48 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 48
49 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 49
50 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 50
51 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 51
52 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 52
53 MANATEE COUNTY FORECAST 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 53
54 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 54
55 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 55
56 Sales of Existing SF Homes 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 56
57 Sales of Existing Condos and Townhomes 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 57
58 Growth in Population and Jobs 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 58
59 Housing Starts 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 59
60 Non-Residential sqft 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 60
61 The End 1/11/2018 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 61
62 QUESTIONS?
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