When is a digging stick better than a plow? Boserup s Theory of Population and Technology

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1 When is a digging stick better than a plow? Boserup s Theory of Population and Technology econ/demog 175 UC Berkeley Prof. Goldstein Week 4 Lecture A Spring

2 Agenda 1. Pull and push of technology and population 2. Two kinds of technological change ( new ideas and new uses of old ideas ) 3. Agricultural Intensification (with pictures!) 4. Paths to invention (necessity, geniuses, and agglomeration effects) 5. An ideal path of population growth? 2

3 As a pre-industrial human, what A. A plough would you rather have? B. A digging stick C. A bow-and-arrow D. Hard to say without knowing population density. 3

4 1. Technological Pull and Population Push 4

5 The Technology-Pull theory of population history (Malthus) Demog events per person b(w) Fertility (crude birth rate d(w) Mortality (crude death rate) P* Ind w* w = real wage Pop size P* Ag P* HG Industrial Settled agriculture Hunter-gatherer technology w* w = real wage 5 11 Courtesy of Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 2013

6 Technology-Pull interpretation unfolding in real historical time (Deevey diagram) Log 10 (pop size) The next tech revolution Log 10 (10 bill)=10 Industr equilib Log 10 (1 bill) =9 Agric equilib Log 10 (10 mill)=7 HG equilib See also Livi-Bacci, p Log 10 (years ago) Coutesy of Ronald Lee, UC Berkeley, 0=log(1 year ago) 6 12

7 The Boserup ian alternative Not Technology Pull Technological change à Pop growth Rather, Population Push Pop growth à Technological change 7

8 A technology-population model typology TECHNOLOGY exogenous endogeous exogenous POPULATION endogeous (2) Solow (3) Boserup (1) Malthus Endogenous growth (e.g., Kremer, 1993; Galor & Weil 2000) Note: A more complete typology would include ECONOMY (good to think about) 8

9 Boserup basics Population change is exogenous. A tendency for growth. Hardship in historical Europe the result of war, plague, and natural disaster (not overpopulation) Population increase drives agricultural and non-agricultural technological change A distinction between short-term and longterm technological change 9

10 2. Two kinds of technological change 10

11 How does population size drive 1. Intensification technology? No new ideas, just new applications Productivity per hour of work falls, so given same need for calories, must work harder. Is a plow better than a digging stick? (Depends on density) Dismal and Malthusian 11

12 Deeper technological change 2. Invention Some sticks better than others, some plows better than others Cumulative infrastructure (roads, metal industries, etc.) A virtuous circle (increasing density à better tech à increases surplus à increasing density à better tech à increases surplus à increasing density à ) 12

13 A picture distinguishes between the two Intensification Deeper invention total output per acre annual short-fallow forest-fallow hunting-gathering multicropping available labor (population) Note: Smoothness of curve: because can combine intensities AND because declining marginal returns within technologies 13

14 3. Agricultural Intensification How to be a farmer? 14

15 Intensification of vegetable food production Gathering Wild plants, roots, fruits, and nuts Forest-fallow 1 or 2 crops then years fallow Bush-fallow 2+ crops followed by 8-10 years fallow Short-fallow 1 or 2 crops then 2 years fallow Annual cropping 1 crop a year then few months fallow Multi-cropping More than one crop per year, little or no fallow Why FALLOW? Regenerates soil nutrients Can avoid weeding, just letting them grow Burn weeds (providing nutrients) 15

16 Agricultural intensification slides (Photos courtesy of Ralph Coolman) 16

17 VERY LOW DENSITY Extensive gardening, with easy access to forest for hunting and gathering 17 Brazil

18 SLASH AND BURN AGRICULTURE A farmer planting tubers in a forest cleared by fire Minimize labor: Don t clear logs, let weeds and bushes grow. Clear more land when overgrown, or no longer productive Brazil 18

19 MULTICROPPING (AN EXPERIMENT) Rice and several other plants Can work same land year-round Multiple harvests Makes labor and capital investments more worthwhile: weeding, irrigation, fertilizing, etc. 19 Brazil

20 INTENSIVE RICE AGRICULTURE Huge investment in terraces Labor intensive planting Can get a lot from land Need very high density (or markets) to justify labor investments 20 Philippines

21 THE JOY OF GATHERING 21

22 Does intensification mean more misery? Not in the Malthusian sense of higher mortality But yes, in our sense of having a lower amount of utility have to work more hours to survive "the plenty of labourers, and the necessity of an increased industry amongst them, encourage cultivators to employ more labour upon their land; to turn up fresh soil, and to manure and improve more completely what is already in tillage" 22

23 4. Population and Invention Necessity is the mother of invention? The "more geniuses" theory? Density? (Boserup's example of town-and-country) 23

24 Necessity as mother of More misery could inspire people to invent With higher population, we move not just along curve but also upwards? invention? total output per acre forest-fallow hunting-gathering short-fallow Still doesn't answer "why" 24 annual available labor (population) multicropping

25 "More geniuses" Say everyone has a small probability p of inventing something. More people = more inventions A(t) should scale with N(t) Here p depend on scale or density: is this right? 25

26 Boserup on density Higher density creates economies of scale human capital: itinerant craftsman becomes local specialist, universities, physical capital: water / animal milling instead of everyone milling at home by hand infrastructure: roads, canals Cities increase need for food from country increase returns on capital investments in agriculture (a precarious system bad times, high prices AND labor shortage in country) 26

27 Population growth and Boserup's Town and Country Country Pop growth in rural areas rural intensification and invention migration to cities markets, technology City economies of scale invention demand for food 27

28 5. Big Picture Conclusions 28

29 Intensification is not necessarily progress Hunters and gatherers work less, eat more meat à invention of agriculture 8000 BC perhaps more out of necessity Capital investment (draft animals, plows, harnesses) only make sense if frequent cropping No ratchet on intensive technology (For example, Europeans used slash and burn in New World) 29

30 Invention leads to progress Better tools More infrastructure (saving of surpluses) Rising standards of living Know-how is cumulative (is not forgotten) 30

31 An ideal path of population growth? Grow too slowly and never achieve densities required for deeper technical progress Grow too quickly and are under constant Malthusian pressure (small surpluses, little capital) Tech progress Europe between Africa and China? "Europe"?" "Asia"? "Africa"? Pop growth rate 31

32 Boserup (and Malthus) causes of differential population density (Environment) Positive check: Climate and disease? (Culture) Preventive check: European marriage pattern, not in China? (History) War and slavery: Boserup suggests that American slave raids à African low population density trap 32

33 Homeostasis or pathdependence? We asked earlier if current population size was an accident resulted from a series of unpredictable events (wars, famines, discoveries, etc.) Or, if it was endogenously determined by demographic functions of population density (Malthus) From Malthus we got homeostasis (a selfregulating system in equilibrium) 33

34 Path-dependence By combining Boserup and Malthus, we get a 3rd possibility: path-dependence Boserup Malthus Boserup Malthus Boserup Δpop à Δtech à Δpop à Δtech à Δpop à Malthus Boserup Δtech à Δpop à With Malthus, history is memory-less. But with Malthus and Boserup where you start matters. History remembers, and cumulates. Boserup 34

35 Next time "Are we doomed?" Population and Resources 35

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