FINAL REPORT. USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (USAID Mekong ARCC) SEPTEMBER 2016

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1 USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (USAID Mekong ARCC) FINAL REPORT SEPTEMBER 2016 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by DAI.

2 USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (USAID Mekong ARCC) FINAL REPORT Program Title: Sponsoring USAID Office: Contract Number: Contractor: Date of Publication: USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change Regional Development Mission for Asia AID-486-C DAI August 2016; September 2016 revised This publication has been made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of DAI and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

3 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank AF Adaptation Fund AMDI Asian Management and Development Institute ATWGARD The ASEAN Technical Working Group on Agriculture and Research Development BCCRF Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund CCIA Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study CCS Community Climate Story CDP Cambodian Government s Commune Development Plan CIP Cambodian Government s Commune Investment Programme COP 21 the 21 st Conference of the Parties CPEIR Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review CRPRI Cambodia Climate Resilience & Provincial Roads Improvement Project DFID U.K. Department for International Development D-FISH Vietnam Directorate of Fisheries ESV Ecosystem Service Valuation FABC Federation of Asian Bishops' Conferences FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FY Fiscal Year (the 12 months of October 1 through September 30) GCF Green Climate Fund GCM Global Climate Model GEF Global Environment Facility GIZ German Society for International Development, Ltd. GMS Greater Mekong Subregion Ha Hectare HH Household ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management IFAD International Fund for Agriculture Development IGES Institute for Global Environmental Strategies INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IP Implementing Partners ISET Institute for Social and Environmental Transition IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management LAPA Local Adaptation Plans for Action LDCF Least Developed Country Fund LMB Lower Mekong Basin LoCAL Local Climate Adaptive Living Facility FINAL REPORT i

4 LUSET Land Use Suitability Evaluation Tool MDB Multilateral development banks MRC Mekong River Commission NAP National Adaptation Program NCDD Cambodia s National Committee for Sub National Democratic Development NGO Non-governmental organization NTFP Non Timber Forest Products PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience SCCF Special Climate Change Fund SCS Scientific Climate Story SEI Stockholm Environment institute SLR Sea Level Rise UN United Nations UNCDF United Nations Capital Development Fund UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development USAID Mekong ARCC USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change Project USFS United States Forest Service VA Vulnerability Assessment VAA Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment VAR Values at Risk VNRC Vietnam Red Cross WFP World Food Programme W-VAA Watershed Level Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ii FINAL REPORT

5 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 A. UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY IN THE LMB... 3 B. LINKING SCIENCE AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE: THE APPLIED MODEL... 5 C. COMMUNITY ADAPTATION IN ACTION... 6 D. SCALING UP RURAL ADAPTATION SECTION I: UNDERSTANDING ECOSYSTEM & LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY IN THE LMB A. OBJECTIVES B. ACTIVITY REVIEW The Climate Study and Reports Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Synthesis Sectoral/Thematic Reports Values at Risk Report Ecosystem Service Valuation Online Ecosystem Valuation Estimator C. SUMMARY OF RESULTS D. LESSONS LEARNED SECTION II: LINKING SCIENCE AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE: THE APPLIED MODEL A. OBJECTIVES B. THE FRAMEWORK Stage 1: Local Level Vulnerability Analysis Stage 2: Community Climate Story Stage 3: Scientific Climate Story Stage 3a: Shared Understanding Stage 3b: Scenario Development Stage 4: Planning Adaptation Initiatives C. SUMMARY OF RESULTS D. LESSONS LEARNED SECTION III: COMMUNITY ADAPTATION IN ACTION A. OBJECTIVES B. ACTIVITY REVIEW C. COUNTRY SITES Thailand Lao PDR FINAL REPORT iii

6 Cambodia Vietnam D. ADAPTATION CATEGORIES Water Resources Management Integrated Farming and Diversified Livelihoods Ecosystem Management, weather monitoring and disaster preparedness E. SUMMARY OF RESULTS Improved Management of Assets Reduced Vulnerability/Good Development Adaptation Capacity F. LESSONS LEARNED SECTION IV: SCALING UP RURAL ADAPTATION A. GROUND-UP PATHWAYS Scaling Through National Frameworks in Vietnam Scaling Participatory Decision Making in Cambodia B. KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS C. FINANCING PATHWAYS Summary of Financing Research Paper Climate Financing Workshop Highlights D. THEMATIC SCALING E. SUMMARY OF RESULTS F. LESSONS LEARNED Packaging for Scale SECTION V: CROSS-CUTTING ELEMENTS A. GENDER IN ADAPTATION DECISION MAKING B. M&E SYSTEMS USAID Mekong ARCC Theory of Change M&E and Adaptation C. COMMUNICATIONS ANNEX I: STANDARD PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ANNEX II: ENDLINE REPORT iv FINAL REPORT

7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Components of Vulnerability... 4 Figure 2: USAID Mekong ARCC Adaptation Decision Making Framework... 6 Figure 3: Ecozones in the Lower Mekong Basin... 8 Figure 4: Poverty Rates in the Lower Mekong Basin... 9 Figure 5: USAID Mekong ARCC selected pilot communities Figure 6: Selected Hotspots in the Lower Mekong Basin Figure 7: Increase in LMB temperature, with Central Highlands, Vietnam and eastern plains of Cambodia expected to see largest absolute increases against baseline Figure 8: Increase in rainfall, with Northern Annamites in Lao PDR expected to see the largest increase against baseline Figure 9: Rubber Figure 10: Rainfed Rice Figure 11: Orchids are a commonly harvested NTFP Figure 12: Livestock and Housing Figure 13: Rural LMB Ecosystem Figure 14: Freshwater Fisheries Figure 15: Economic Values at Risk of Climate Change Figure 16: Types of Ecosystem Services Figure 17: ESV Country Guidelines Figure 18: USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework Figure 19: Village Transect Map for Kok Klang Village in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand Figure 20: Sample of drawing cards used in awareness raising activities Figure 21: The Farmer s Planning Dilemma: Weather vs. Climate Figure 22: Knowledge and Practice on Climate Change: Kien Giang, Chiang Rai and Sakon Nakhon Combined Figure 23: Number of respondents who knew at least one adaptation strategy at baseline (all), midterm (excluding Kampong Thom and Khammouan), and endline (all) Figure 24: USAID Mekong ARCC project sites and collaborating implementing partners Figure 25: Key Climate Impacts by Site Figure 26: USAID Mekong ARCC Resilience Framework Figure 27: Map of the Vietnam Mekong Delta Provinces Figure 28: USAID Mekong ARCC Theory of Change Figure 29: Resilience Domains and Sample Indicators Figure 30: USAID Mekong ARCC Endline Report FINAL REPORT v

8 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Seasonal Livelihood Calendar for Khoum Kouanesam, Lao PDR Table 2: Hazard Calendar of Kouanesam Table 3: Summary of Water Improvement Activities in Nakai District, Khammouan Province, Lao PDR54 Table 4: Summary of Community Adaptation Strategies Table 5: Improved Management of Assets: Illustrative Results Table 6: Reduced Vulnerability / Good Development: Illustrative Results Table 7: Increased Adaptation Capacity: Illustrative Results Table 8: USAID Mekong ARCC s Knowledge Products by Program Phase Table 9: Multilateral Climate Fund Characteristics Table 10: Project M&E System vs. Community M&E System Table 11: Indicator Achievements by Fiscal Year Table 12: Adaptive Capacity Scale Endline, Item I: Using climate information in decision-making Table 13: USAID Mekong ARCC Communications Strategy & Publications Table 14: List of Project Achievements by Standard Indicators vi FINAL REPORT

9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Rural peoples vulnerability to climate change is a growing issue of global importance. A recent World Bank report released in January 2016 titled Shock Waves Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty found that climate change has the potential to significantly increase poverty across the globe, with the magnitude of this increase dependent on development choices. The report states that a business as usual approach to climate change, in which inclusive and climate-informed development is absent, could increase poverty globally by between 35 million and 122 million people by 2030 a staggering figure juxtaposed to global progress in the fight against poverty achieved over the past 20 years. Agricultural vulnerabilities caused by the changing temperature and rainfall patterns are expected to play a significant role in pushing vulnerable people back into poverty, especially through higher food prices, crop and livestock losses, and reduced agricultural production. Countries in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam all have segments of their populations who are chronically poor or are vulnerable to falling into poverty and food insecurity. Many families within these groups still produce much of their own food and are acutely sensitive to adverse weather events, such as floods and droughts and extreme weather, with crop failures resulting in serious hardships. In recent years the LMB has experienced its fair share of such extreme events. In 2011, the worst flood in Thailand s history killed over 800 people across 86% of its provinces. The impacts of these floods resulted in a nearly 40% decrease in revenue generated from rice exports from the previous year. Heavy rains in Cambodia that same year affected over 1.5 million people, resulting in $624 million in economic losses by far the most expensive natural disaster in Cambodian history and damaged or destroyed 10% of the countries rice fields. Surface temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius and higher in 2015 and 2016 along with delayed starts to the rainy season upended traditional crop planting calendars in Lao PDR. The same extreme drought conditions contributed to severe food and water shortages in Vietnam, with saltwater intrusion also negatively impacting rice yields in Vietnam s coastal provinces In this global and regional context, the USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience the Climate Change (USAID Mekong ARCC) project, implemented by DAI from , set about to demonstrate highlevel climate science can be integrated into community decision making, and used to develop an evidence base of tested rural adaptation measures in the LMB. As rural adaptation strategies and financing are mainstreamed into national development planning in the region, approaches, experience and best practices established by the USAID Mekong ARCC project can help to lay this foundation. The USAID Mekong ARCC Project The key objective of USAID Mekong ARCC was to increase adaptation capacity and resilience of communities to the negative impacts of climate change. The project kicked off by performing downscaled climate science modeling and then interpreted what the data meant in terms of specific impacts on eco and agrarian systems across the Basin. Using the results of this scientific assessment, the project identified priority provinces that are projected to experience the greatest changes in temperature and rainfall over the next fifty years. Given the top-down nature of scientific projections, the USAID Mekong ARCC team sought input from communities to validate recent shifts in weather patterns and prioritize adaptation strategies in order to best address their needs in a locally suitable and FINAL REPORT 1

10 sustainable fashion. After establishing a framework for connecting science, local impacts, and decision making into the development of adaptation plans, the team supported community implementation of adaptation measures that benefited close to 30,000 rural people. These adaptation strategies also serve as a valuable evidence base of adaptation solutions tested by the project. The final push for USAID Mekong ARCC was learning and communicating strategies for scaling these rural adaptation measures through LMB governments and development partners, and then identifying their potential to attract global climate financing. The project team clearly documented the framework and results generated along the way to serve as proof that the USAID Mekong ARCC adaptation design can be used as a springboard for rural adaptation planning, design, and implementation in the LMB moving forward. Project Highlights Some notable highlights from the methods, lessons learned, and evidence base built over the project s five years include: A cutting edge basin wide climate impact study: USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong Key Final Results A pioneering flexible framework for connecting climate science and local knowledge: Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework Two papers approved for publication in leading peer reviewed scientific journals on climate change: Merging science- and community-led adaptation planning processes in the Lower Mekong Basin (approved for publication in Climatic Change ), and Adaptation planning in the Lower Mekong Basin: merging scientific data with local perspective to improve community resilience to climate change (approved for publication in Climate and Development ) An average of percent increase in awareness of climate change by participant villagers in USAID Mekong ARCC beneficiary communities 64 percent of community members report knowing at least one adaptation strategy (versus a baseline of 30 percent) 58 percent of community members report they are currently practicing adaptation (versus a baseline of 20 percent) 33 Climate Change Adaptation Tools or Technologies tested at five field sites across the LMB 44 strategies, plans or regulations implemented that address climate change or natural resource management officially proposed and adopted by communities Over 1,000 hectares of biological significance or natural resources under improved management. 8 regional platforms such as the Asian Development Bank, ASEAN, Mekong River Commission and UN World Food Programme strengthened through USAID Mekong ARCC climate science and community evidence base Scaling of techniques, lessons and experiences applied at a 54 hectare rice-shrimp climate smart pilot site under USAID Mekong ARCC to Vietnam national government policy and program and potentially impacting over 250,000 hectares across the Vietnamese delta Scaling of participatory planning process for climate change adaptation piloted in Chey Commune, Cambodia into the national commune investment planning process undertaken by the Cambodian government s National Committee for Sub National Democratic Development 2 FINAL REPORT

11 To best communicate the USAID Mekong ARCC story, this final report is laid out according to how the project itself unfolded, with key actions and their results detailed briefly in this section below and in more detail throughout the main text of the report: Understanding Ecosystem-Livelihood Vulnerability in the Lower Mekong Basin Linking Science and Local Knowledge The Applied Model Community Adaptation in Action Scaling Up Rural Adaptation A. UNDERSTANDING VULNERABILITY IN THE LMB Two-thirds of the people in the LMB countries of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam live in rural areas. Seventy percent of people in this region carry out agrarian or traditional livelihoods, making them highly reliant on the supply of services provided by stable ecosystems. Much of the literature on climate change at the time USAID Mekong ARCC started in the early 2010 s included statements about how vulnerable these communities are, which served to gain the attention of donors and policymakers in the region. The USAID Mekong ARCC project was designed to go a step further by first analyzing how exactly specific places in the LMB would be impacted by shifts in the climate, and then acting on this information together with vulnerable communities. Over a two-year period, the project undertook a Climate Change Impact and Adaptation (CCIA) Study of the LMB to gain a clear understanding of how the livelihoods and ecosystems of rural economies are vulnerable to the shifting climate. The Study team made up of scientists, modelers and livelihood sector experts from the International Centre for Environmental Management (ICEM), developed a modelling approach to define and quantify the changes in hydro-meteorological variables over time, and to apply changes in the global climate system down to zones at a subnational scale across the LMB. These factored changes include incidence, magnitude and duration of events such as floods, storms, rainfallrunoff relationships, evapotranspiration, and temperatures. The CCIA Study offers great detail in its findings that communities across the basin will have to cope with a range of threats including increased temperatures, higher variability in weather patterns, increasing incidence and severity of periodic droughts and floods, increasing frequency of stronger storms, and, in the Mekong Delta, sea level rise and corresponding increases in salinity. An important output of the CCIA study was the identification of climate change hotspots, which are specific locations projected to face the most extreme changes in temperature and rainfall patterns that will alter productivity of crops, livestock, and aquatic systems. The hotspot approach integrated and oriented study findings and provided a scientific basis for the selection of priority provinces for community adaptation work. To define how each hotspot would be vulnerable, the USAID Mekong ARCC team undertook a sectoral analysis that offered nuance and detail around how specific livelihood sectors, such as agriculture or fisheries, would be impacted. The analysis took into account that all natural species thrive in specific thermoneutral zones; crops, for example, are most productive in a comfort zone where temperature, rainfall, and soil conditions create a favorable growing environment. When these conditions change, the crops and animals in these areas struggle or fail. For example, a slightly warmer 2009 winter season when Litchi trees flower in Thailand s Chiang Rai province drastically lowered Litchi fruit productivity, with yields down 50 percent. Detailed linkages between climate shifts and crop suitability in the LMB FINAL REPORT 3

12 was critical to understanding local vulnerability under the USAID Mekong ARCC project, and was also considered pioneering research in the region. To then measure vulnerability in the hotspots, the USAID Mekong ARCC framework characterized community vulnerability by examining the three primary components (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity) as they relate to key livelihoods, community resources, and ecosystems. In both the CCIA and for science-based assessments at each of the community pilot sites, exposure was determined based on the climate projections for 2050 of multiple factors including average daily maximum temperature, seasonal rainfall, drought months/year, flood height and duration, and frequency of extreme weather events. Sensitivity was evaluated by determining researched climate threshold values for specific crops, species, ecosystems, etc. and comparing these tipping points to the climate projection data. Adaptive capacity was assessed by considering community-level factors such as climate change awareness, organizational structure, village assets, savings, diversification and access to outside resources. Ultimately, vulnerability was determined as a function of impact (the combined effects of exposure and sensitivity) reduced by adaptive capacity. Figure 1 below illustrates the USAID Mekong ARCC vulnerability framework. Figure 1: Components of Vulnerability 4 FINAL REPORT

13 As the adaptive capacity element is highly local, this is where climate science meets the community context. USAID Mekong ARCC invested two years of time and resources in understanding vulnerability from a sound science perspective generated by the CCIA, which then needed to be validated and applied on the ground with rural communities in the LMB. B. LINKING SCIENCE AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE: THE APPLIED MODEL For decades, the scientific community has used advanced technologies and downscaling techniques to generate knowledge on climate change impacts such as temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, etc. However, this ever-growing body of research is rarely utilized or applied directly to assist the people who need it most, such as rural communities in the LMB. When the USAID Mekong ARCC project launched in September 2011, its objective was to increase community resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change by bridging climate science with community knowledge. The project sought to combine two equally valid and necessary perspectives: the knowledge of rural farmers who have been working their land for generations, and that of scientists who offer historical climate data as well as climate models showing the conditions that farmers can expect to encounter with increasing frequency today and in the years to come. The USAID Mekong ARCC team referred to this bridging process as linking science and local knowledge to adaptation action. The process increased villagers understanding of climate change and how it related to weather patterns and their livelihood vulnerability, and then engaged farmers and local stakeholders in a visioning exercise to plan for generational, medium-, and short-term livelihood goals. Communities prioritized adaptation options based on their vision of what the changing climate means to them, and what the project could support vis-à-vis adaptive activities. USAID Mekong ARCC took these basic plans and passed them through various expert lenses to ensure that they were climate resilient, integrated, sound development, and economically sensible for the communities. Using the CCIA study as a foundation, the team tested evidence-based adaptation methods with communities across the LMB. But rather than determining the threats and impacts for these communities, the USAID Mekong ARCC team sought out local perspectives in a community-level adaptation decision-making process. This participatory process includes the following core elements: Community Climate Story self-mapping of resources, assets, and hazards, and ranking of weather threats and livelihood vulnerabilities. Scientific Climate Story informed projections to improve community understanding of how the future climate is expected to affect local livelihoods. Shared Understanding scenario planning workshops that identify community priorities and assist villagers to visualize their adaptation options in the context of the scientific climate story. Planning Adaptation Initiatives with cost-benefit analyses and assessments of sustainability and soundness, from both local development and climate change adaptation perspectives. Activity Implementation by Communities with community-level monitoring and evaluation to ground-truth livelihood impacts and facilitate adaptive management. This detailed process called the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework was used at the target project sites to ultimately select and design contextspecific technical solutions for strengthening livelihood resilience in the face of climate change. Under FINAL REPORT 5

14 this framework, science-based and community-based assessments are initially conducted as two distinct processes. Knowledge sharing ensues where results from both the top-down and bottom-up assessments are evaluated and compared. A more holistic understanding emerges, which accounts for the longer term trajectory of climate provided by the scientific projections, along with the on-theground observations of how climate change is unfolding to date and specific effects on people, their livelihoods, and community resources. This merged understanding serves as the basis for developing adaptation solutions that fit the context and needs of individual communities. C. COMMUNITY ADAPTATION IN ACTION LMB communities have long adapted to changing conditions and are well aware of their vulnerability. Residents know it can take years to recover from the damage inflicted in mere hours or days by floods and extreme weather events. However, over time the cumulative effects of climate change will bring about dramatic disruptions beyond the coping capacity of most local communities. The primary output from the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework stage (laid out in Figure 2 below) was a clear community adaptation plan. Community action plans facilitated by USAID Mekong ARCC vary widely, reflecting diverse contexts and priorities to protect important livelihoods and improve food security and wellbeing. As most villagers are risk averse due to having few resources to leverage, the measures do not represent radical changes, but show a willingness to strengthen existing livelihoods and diversify into new livelihood areas and absorb associated risks to support their resilience. Figure 2: USAID Mekong ARCC Adaptation Decision Making Framework 6 FINAL REPORT

15 Adaptation activities taken at USAID Mekong ARCC sites include improved rice-shrimp farming techniques, climate-smart pig raising, integrated farming and agriculture diversification, water storage and filtration initiatives, household frog and fish ponds, and small-scale water supply infrastructure. Each of these adaptation categories and others are summarized below. Prior to defining the adaptation categories, a snapshot of the USAID Mekong ARCC project sites is offered herein. USAID Mekong ARCC Rural Adaptation Sites in the LMB The selected USAID Mekong ARCC project sites provide a representative cross-section of the range in societal and ecological conditions present within the LMB (see Figure 3). Each site also falls within an identified hotspot zone that is projected to experience more drastic shifts in local climate patterns relative to other regions in the basin. FINAL REPORT 7

16 Eco-zones Chiang Rai 2. Sakon Nakhon 3. Khammouan 4. Champasak 5. Mondulkiri 6. Gia Lai 7. Kampong Thom 8. Kien Giang 8 Figure 3: Ecozones in the Lower Mekong Basin 8 FINAL REPORT

17 Poverty Rate Figure 4: Poverty Rates in the Lower Mekong Basin FINAL REPORT 9

18 Figure 5: USAID Mekong ARCC selected pilot communities 10 FINAL REPORT

19 As illustrated in Figure 5, the five USAID Mekong ARCC field sites within the LMB were located in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. More granular insights for each site are offered later in the report below are high-level snapshots of each: In Kampong Svay District of Kampong Thom Province, Cambodia, Chey Commune is situated within Cambodia s central lowlands and the Tonle Sap/Great Lake drainage basin. The six pilot villages within Chey Commune are quite impoverished in an area of poor sandy soils, and rely on remittances from migratory labor to supplement their inadequate income from rice farming. In Nakai District of Khammouan Province, Lao PDR, the pilot villages Ban Kouane and Ban Xong are remotely located within the Phou Hin Poun National Biodiversity Conservation Area of the Annamites Ecoregion. The communities are underdeveloped with high rates of poverty, illiteracy, and malnutrition and live within an area of rich ecology and globally unique species and habitats. In Mae Chan District of Chiang Rai Province, Thailand, the pilot villages of Loh Yo, Hae Ko and Huai Kang Pla are situated within a mixed agricultural and forested landscape of northern Thailand and are unique in supporting a culturally diverse population consisting of numerous Hill Tribe along with ethnic Thais. The communities are located within the Golden Triangle known for its historic role in the opium industry, near the tri-point border of Myanmar, Thailand, and Lao PDR. In Tao Ngoi District of Sakon Nakhon, Thailand, the pilot village of Kok Klang is highly connected to and dependent on surrounding community forestland that is a part of the Phu Pa Yon National Park. Overuse of the forest and land tenure issues are ongoing challenges. In An Minh District of Kien Giang Province, Vietnam, the pilot site of Thuan Hoa Commune is located within the Vietnam Mekong Delta, which is uniquely characterized by a vast system of canals influencing all aspects of local residents lives and livelihoods. Commune members are engaged primarily in a dual rice/shrimp farming practice that is the dominant livelihood option. USAID Mekong ARCC Adaptation Activity Categories Adaptation measures implemented in the USAID Mekong ARCC pilot sites spanned a range of strategies that generally fit into six broad categories: Water Infrastructure and Management, Climate Smart Agricultural Techniques, Livestock Management, Aquaculture, Forest Restoration and Management, and Community Organization and Capacity Building. Clear examples of each are presented in Section IV of this report. Here is how the USAID Mekong ARCC team defines each category: Water Infrastructure and Management involves activities geared toward the construction or rehabilitation of water supply systems including the installation of water filtration systems, and the use of water meters to monitor and respond to community water use. This category also includes irrigation and flood control projects, such as canal construction to supply water to agricultural fields during dry periods and dyke construction to mitigate flood events. Climate Smart Agricultural Techniques incorporate practices that build resilience into farming systems such as crop diversification to reduce reliance on monocultures and the use of native rice and other crop varieties that can handle more extreme climatic conditions. Integrated farming approaches are used to conserve valuable soil and water resources, enhance positive feedback loops, and foster sustainability. FINAL REPORT 11

20 Livestock Management activities include the construction of livestock housing that improves ventilation and drainage, and the incorporation of organic bed materials with enzymes to break down waste (bio-mattress). Activities also include the use of native chicken and pig species that can sustain higher temperatures. Vulnerable groups (women, ethnic minorities, and landless poor) in particular benefit from the supplemental income generated by livestock projects, thereby increasing their resilience to climate change. Aquaculture activities include improvements to the rice-shrimp rotational farming system in the Mekong Delta, such as installing shrimp nurseries to improve the productivity of the aquaculture ponds; monitoring water quality parameters including temperature, dissolved oxygen, and salinity levels to inform management decisions; and improving the selection, testing, and cooperative purchase of post larvae shrimp. Other aquaculture projects include small-scale frog and fish ponds to provide additional protein and income source for households. Forest Restoration and Management builds community organization and social capital by the formation of management committees that protect and regulate use of community forests. Activities also include forest restoration plantings, to reduce soil loss from heavy rains on steep slopes or help maintain the water table in areas expected to experience longer droughts, and training workshops on the use of mangroves to minimize erosion in coastal areas. Community Organization and Capacity Building activities include awareness-raising focused on climate change and adaptation, and monitoring the weather and interpreting weather forecast information. This category also includes the monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment of ongoing adaptation activities as well as the incorporation and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into planning structures and processes. Additional training on alternative livelihoods reduces risk by diversifying income generation potential. D. SCALING UP RURAL ADAPTATION The USAID Mekong ARCC proof of concept connecting climate science with local adaptation decision making unfolded with successes and failures at different sites, leading to a robust set of lessons learned and best practices for rural adaptation. While the proof of concept was the day-to-day focus, the USAID Mekong ARCC team realized early on that upscaling will be the key to mainstreaming rural adaptation into government planning across the LMB. The USAID Mekong ARCC project contribution toward scaling can be encapsulated through four primary strategies: knowledge products, ground-up pathways, financing pathways, thematic scaling. Knowledge Products: Many programs document knowledge framed in the context of their experience. While the project captured such context, the team focused on creating knowledge products that could be used by other program designers and practitioners as well. It takes creativity at times to uncouple a how to guide from its context, but it was time invested in making the proof of concept 12 FINAL REPORT

21 replicable and scalable. A good example is the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework, which offers a holistic step-by-step guide and tools for connecting sound climate science projections to community decision-making. While local context is woven in to express the various concepts, the document itself is laid out in a fashion that makes it easy for program designers/implementers to replicate in the future. This is but one example of the many knowledge products the project generated, a compendium of which is found in Section V below. Ground-Up Pathways: A key local scaling strategy aimed to work through existing government frameworks/processes, with the idea that well-informed national government adaptation programming will set the stage for those governments to build lessons and techniques into their larger programs and also, perhaps, access the climate financing mechanisms that are a key gateway to achieving true scale in rural adaptation. The USAID Mekong ARCC method engaged national and local government actors so that they were provided with opportunities to learn from adaptation activities on the ground. It is easy to focus 100 percent of a project s time in achieving on-the-ground success, so it took extra will (and time) to open up these important ground-up pathways. While not a failsafe approach, the time invested is fundamental to achieving scale. For example, the project s work in rice-shrimp integrated farming methods covered a trial area of 54 ha in a single coastal farming commune in Kien Giang Province of the Vietnam. By involving the Directorate of Fisheries (D-FISH), the national fisheries ministry in Vietnam, a new national climate-sensitive rice-shrimp model incorporating USAID Mekong ARCC lessons and experiences will be scaled across the Vietnamese delta in similar landscapes across five provinces and up to 250,000 ha of coastal farmland. Financing Pathways: While adaptation financing is still evolving, the USAID Mekong ARCC project sought to both simplify the description of the marketplace and identify practical lessons for LMB stakeholders in the paper titled Harnessing Climate Finance for Rural Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin: Opportunities, Constraints and Future Prospects. A key takeaway for accessing adaptation financing includes the paramount importance of packaging program proposals as well as aligning National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Conference of Parties, and the specific objectives of funding entities. Packaging multiple small projects with relatively standard designs could help officials achieve the scale, replicability, and impact needed to attract financing. Thematic Scaling: Site-based successes and stories are important for learning, however the USAID Mekong ARCC team believed that the decoupling of climate threats and adaptation strategies from their local context is critical for evidence-based scaling. The Climate Risks for Rural Livelihoods: Agriculture and Water Management in the Lower Mekong Basin produced under ARCC took this exact strategy by highlighting common risks faced (storms, droughts, etc.) with common adaptation strategies for livelihoods sectors present across the LMB (livestock, fisheries, etc.) and water resources management practices. The thematic axis of the analysis can easily be applied in adaptation program design efforts undertaken by LMB government officials and development partners. Altogether, the USAID Mekong ARCC team spent much of year 5 focused on enabling scale not only for the activities at project sites, but importantly for LMB governments and development partners in the region. While there are limits to scale for a modestly sized USAID project like USAID Mekong ARCC, the team s intent was to use the lessons and best practices derived as a springboard for rural adaptation planning, design, and implementation in the LMB moving forward. FINAL REPORT 13

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23 SECTION I: UNDERSTANDING ECOSYSTEM & LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY IN THE LMB A. OBJECTIVES Seventy percent of the people living in the LMB region rely on agrarian or traditional livelihoods. Together with the local ecosystems that sustain them, these communities make up the fabric of a regional economy that faces uncertainties due to the impacts of climate change and rapid economic development. While a broad understanding of climate vulnerabilities in the LMB existed at project initiation in 2011, the USAID Mekong ARCC project was designed to go a step further and analyze how exactly specific areas and livelihoods in the LMB would be impacted by shifts in local climate patterns. The overarching objective in this stage of the project was to translate the best downscaled climate models into regional and sectoral vulnerabilities within the LMB. Using ecosystems and livelihoods as key units of analysis, the team developed the most granular and clearly documented analyses to date of how climate change will impact the assets and incomes of communities across the basin. This sound science element of the USAID Mekong ARCC project became both a tool for communicating climate change to various audiences in the region, as well as the foundation upon which the community-based adaptation activities were built. B. ACTIVITY REVIEW 1. THE CLIMATE STUDY AND REPORTS The USAID Mekong ARCC CCIA Study quantifies specific shifts in climate and hydrology factors for the LMB by 2050, and projects some of the likely impacts to agriculture, fisheries, livestock and other important livelihood sectors resulting from future changes to the basin s hydroclimate. Statistical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) was used to regionalize global climate projections and estimate changes to temperature and precipitation across the LMB. An Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) model was also applied to the basin to determine related changes to hydrology such as the Mekong s mainstream flow rates, flood regime, and soil water availability. The International Rice Research Institute s Land Use Suitability Evaluation Tool (LUSET) model was adapted by the study team to determine crop suitability for a given area based on specific land unit characteristics and crop requirements. The model assessed the suitability of six crop species for the LMB under baseline climate conditions and compared that to future projected conditions for The crops chosen for this evaluation were: rainfed rice, soybean, maize, cassava, Robusta coffee, and rubber. Lastly, the AquaCrop yield model developed by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) was coupled to the IWRM model to estimate impacts of climate change on rice and maize yields in a number of more specific locations across the basin. FINAL REPORT 15

24 An important output of the study was the identification of climate change hotspots. By determining the ranges where temperature, rainfall, and soil characteristics at specific geographic locations create conditions that transform ecosystems and alter productivity of crops, livestock, and aquatic systems, a better understanding was gained of how climate change will impact community livelihood and subsistence options. The hotspot approach integrates and orients study findings and provides a scientific basis for the selection of focal areas for the community adaptation initiatives to be undertaken by USAID Mekong ARCC. The study team identified a subset of 8 priority hotspot provinces that are: 1) Representative of the ecosystems found across the LMB 2) Contain a mix of common staple and commercial crops, fisheries, and livestock 3) Projected to experience the greatest relative increase in temperature, rainfall, or sea level rise 4) In zones where such shifts would significantly impact a number of important livelihood/subsistence options for communities The selected hotspots, therefore, share common traits with other provinces in the LMB, which allows for replication and learning based on the new approaches to adapting generated from USAID Mekong ARCC field programs. The priority hotspot provinces identified by the CCIA Study are highlighted in orange in Figure 6: Figure 6: Selected Hotspots in the Lower Mekong Basin Chiang Rai - Thailand Sakon Nakhon - Thailand Khammouan - Lao PDR Champasak - Lao PDR Mondulkiri - Cambodia Kampong Thom - Cambodia Kien Giang -Vietnam Gia Lai - Vietnam 16 FINAL REPORT

25 2. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND ADAPTATION SYNTHESIS By 2050 the extent and distribution of rainfall and daily maximum temperatures will differ significantly from the LMB s historical trends. In terms of temperature, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate change models utilizing mid-range carbon emissions scenarios forecast the worldwide average annual temperature to rise 2 degrees Celsius by Based on a global 2 degree temperature rise by 2050, the USAID Mekong ARCC climate study forecasts far more extreme temperature shifts for certain regions in the LMB. As shown in the maps below, some parts of the basin may experience significant shifts in average annual temperature, particularly the eastern plains of Cambodia and parts of the Central Highlands of Vietnam. The annual temperature in this area could increase as much as 3 C to 5 C and cause dramatic changes in the ability of certain crops, fish, and livestock species to be productive and thrive (Figure 7). Such a temperature rise would seriously impact the livelihood, health, and food security prospects of the local communities in these areas. Annual precipitation is forecasted to rise throughout the LMB by anywhere from 35 mm to 365 mm, with the largest increases occurring in the northern Annamites mountain range in central Lao PDR (see Figure 8). Significant increases in dry season precipitation will also occur in northern Thailand. Additional hydrological effects associated with climate change in the LMB include increased flooding along the Mekong mainstream due to the overall higher rainfall; more frequent and severe extreme storm events; as well as a significant increase in flood depth and duration in the Mekong Delta due to the compounded effects of increased flooding in the Mekong mainstream and an estimated 0.3 m sea level rise (SLR). Increases in salinity will occur within parts of the Mekong Delta as a component of SLR, most significantly during the dry season. Figure 7: Increase in LMB temperature, with Central Highlands, Vietnam and eastern plains of Cambodia (circled) expected to see largest absolute increases against baseline FINAL REPORT 17

26 These expected basin-wide impacts on were then overlaid with LMB ecological and administrative boundaries around key sectors. This step takes vulnerability and adaptation responses to the species and habitat level, but still offers a basin-wide view. The study focused on five sectoral themes: 1) Agriculture 2) Capture fisheries and aquaculture 3) Livestock 4) Natural systems 5) Socio-economic dimensions The Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study laid the foundation for the USAID Mekong ARCC project by providing the scientific evidence base for identifying highly vulnerable and valuable agricultural and natural systems assets in the LMB, defining a range of adaptation options and priorities, and guiding the selection of focal areas for enhancing existing adaptation strategies and demonstrating and testing new approaches. Figure 8: Increase in rainfall, with Northern Annamites in Lao PDR (circled) expected to see the largest increase against baseline 3. SECTORAL/THEMATIC REPORTS To better capture the nuance of ecosystem and livelihood vulnerability across the basin, the project took a deep dive and developed sectoral reports in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, NTFPs and Crop Wild Relatives, and Protected Areas. The following captures highlights from the projected impacts on livelihoods sectors and recommended adaptation measures laid out in each of these detailed reports. 18 FINAL REPORT

27 Projected Impacts on Livelihoods Sectors Non Rice Crops Climate change may induce geographical shifts in the suitability of the LMB for several crop species assessed, including: Suitability of industrial crops like rubber, Robusta coffee, and cassava shifting to areas of higher altitude with optimal suitability in 2050 centered on northern Thailand and northern Lao PDR; Plains and lower altitude areas becoming less suitable for rubber, Robusta coffee, and cassava, especially in eastern Cambodia; Dramatic increases in precipitation in central Lao PDR affecting cassava, soybean, and maize culture. Rainfall suitability will decrease in the Vietnamese Central Highlands and eastern Cambodia; A general increase of crop suitability is projected for Northeast Figure 9: Rubber Thailand due to an increase of rainfall; and Maize yield projections show general decreases across the LMB, with Gia Lia (-12%), Mondulkiri (-6%), and Kampong Thom (-6%) Provinces being the most severely affected of the hotspot areas. Rainfed Rice Crops Climate change will have fewer effects on lowland rainfed rice than other crops; however rice is vulnerable to increased temperature in the wet season, decreased water availability in the dry season, and salinity intrusion in the delta. Other potential climate impacts, both positive and negative, include: Positive changes for crop yield in Sakon Nakhon Province in Northeast Thailand and negative changes in Gia Lai Province, Vietnam, Champasak Province, Lao PDR, Chiang Rai Province in northern Thailand, and Modulkiri Province, Cambodia; and The changes in projected yield are in part due to increased rainfall in the wet season resulting in a negative impact in already wet areas like Champasak and Gia Lai, and positive impacts in a dry area like Sakon Nakhon. Figure 10: Rainfed Rice Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) Productivity and fertility of NTFPs may be affected by increased temperatures, with dry season spikes impacting flowering, fruiting, and seed dispersal; and Increases in temperature predicted for Mondulkiri could push important livelihood products such as Cardamom and Paper Mulberry beyond their absolute temperature range. Figure 11: Orchids are a commonly harvested NTFP FINAL REPORT 19

28 Livestock Higher temperatures will have little measureable impact on individual animals in low-intensity systems but multiplied across villages to regions the impacts may be significant; Changes in rainfall will affect livestock units through feed and animal health issues. (Changes in the availability, quality, and price of feeds are fundamental to all livestock production systems, as feed costs typically account for between 65 and 80 percent of production costs); Pathogens will likely be affected in terms of viability outside hosts and rates of proliferation by humidity levels and the quality and quantity of vector breeding sites. Wetter periods increase the likelihood of disease transmission through fomites (i.e., non-living platforms such as mud that are capable of carrying and transmitting infectious organisms), increasing the importance of Figure 12: Livestock and Housing employing effective biosecurity measures; and Wild species in the LMB which are important genetic resources will be threatened by climate change directly and indirectly through loss of habitat, hunting, and the threat of infectious diseases. Ecosystems Climate change in the LMB will accelerate the loss of populations and species due to extreme temperatures, particularly during dry periods, and will be a significant driver of biodiversity loss; Reorganization of plant and animal communities will likely occur as a result of climate change, and new problem species will enter communities affecting overall structure and function; and Geographic ranges for both species and ecosystems will shift, and there will be an overall loss in habitat extent. Figure 13: Rural LMB Ecosystem Fisheries Black fish, which have limited migrations, appear more climate-proof than migratory white fish and upland fish and may be expected to increase in the proportion of fish catches as temperatures increase; Aquaculture could be more vulnerable to climate change than capture fisheries, with flash floods causing a sudden drop in salinity in the delta provinces and inviting disease in coastal shrimp ponds in Vietnam; 20 FINAL REPORT

29 Aquaculture infrastructure will be increasingly vulnerable to damage resulting from extreme events such as flash floods; Increasing temperatures throughout the LMB will result in greater eutrophication of aquaculture ponds and associated negative water quality effects on adjacent streams and river systems. Figure 14: Freshwater Fisheries Climate Study Recommended Adaptation Measures for the LMB Each sectoral report includes vulnerabilities and adaptation measures. The following is a simple example of how these reports connect projected impacts with adaptation solutions: Agriculture Traditional agro-systems throughout the LMB are diverse and as such offer greater flexibility in responding to the varying effects of climate change. Current basin-wide trends in agriculture, however, have resulted in greater intensification and the use of monocultures; these types of systems will require significant inputs and associated resources to respond to the pressures stemming from climate change. Agricultural sector adaptation measures include the development and use of new crop varieties; adjustment of the traditional cropping calendar; improved water conservation techniques; and improved soil management. Fisheries Capture fisheries adaptation approaches include the protection and rehabilitation of upland catchments, as well as measures to enhance stream habitat such as the creation/maintenance of deep pool refuges and the removal of obstacles for migration. Aquaculture systems should be protected from impacts associated with flashfloods, e.g., by improving the integrity of embankments and through construction of diversion canals to facilitate drainage of floodwaters during extreme events. FINAL REPORT 21

30 Livestock Increased resilience in livestock systems through better access to vaccination programs, improved feed and forage options, and improvement to housing structures will be critical to successful adaptation in this sector. These sectoral and thematic analysis reports were very detailed and taken with a basin-wide lens. These vulnerabilities were the transitional link between the scientific analysis and the community level context; in both cases vulnerability was determined by relating factors of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The CCIA Study determined exposure based on the climate projections for 2050 of multiple factors including average daily maximum temperature, seasonal rainfall, drought months/year, flood height and duration, and frequency of extreme weather events. The CCIA Study defined sensitivity by determining researched climate threshold values for specific crops, species, ecosystems, etc. and comparing these tipping points to the climate projection data. Adaptive capacity is highly local, and thus factors such as climate change awareness, organizational structure, village assets, and access to outside resources were determined at the site level using the foundational analysis from the CCIA Study. Ultimately, vulnerability in each USAID Mekong ARCC target community was determined as a function of impact (the combined effects of exposure and sensitivity) reduced by adaptive capacity. This local process is further detailed in Section III. 4. VALUES AT RISK REPORT The CCIA Study not only set the foundation for the project s site-level work, but was also in itself an important contributor to policymaker, researcher and practitioner understanding of climate impacts in the LMB. Various communications tools and knowledge management products were produced that aimed to gain the interest of diverse interest groups. A key example of this is how the project used the results of the CCIA study as the basis for development of a Values at Risk (VAR) analysis to further appeal to policymakers and the private sector. The VAR was designed to translate the sweeping but sometimes vague future impacts projected in the CCIA Study into present day economic values. Statements such as temperatures will rise, when annual rainfall increases, if flash flooding occurs more often that are based on timescales of years into the future can be challenging to comprehend today. This can be challenging for policymakers in the Mekong region, who must weigh short-term development gains with longer term economic and non-market costs. The VAR report analyzed key assets in the LMB using their present-day values to get a sense of the economic toll of anticipated changes in the region s A VAR analysis looks at the existing value of goods, services and infrastructure that are likely to be adversely impacted by climate change rather than making complex predictions about exactly how, when, and to what extent these resources will be impacted under various states of nature and policy scenarios in the future. It is a technique to help prioritize investments so they re not allocated to adaptation projects with minimal economic return. VAR Report Author, Dr. John Talberth 22 FINAL REPORT

31 climate. Rather than using a lens of climate impacts occurring incrementally from now until 2050, the VAR fast-forwarded those impacts to present the potential economic losses from climate risks if they all happened tomorrow. The USAID Mekong ARCC team applied three key steps in conducting the VAR analysis: 1) First, climate models are consulted to identify geographic areas that are likely to be affected most by climate change, such as extreme heat waves, drought, sea level rise, etc.; 2) Next, economic resources are identified in these geographic areas that are sensitive to these climate changes. Some crops may be adaptive, others may not be so adaptive; and, 3) Lastly, an economic value gets placed on those climate-sensitive resources using standard techniques, taking into account whether those resources are formally exchanged in markets or whether their value is mostly non-market in nature. The VAR report demonstrates that economic impacts of climate change in the LMB are expected to be wide-ranging, significant and mostly negative. Of most concern are significant reductions in the yield of crops, fish and non-timber forest products critical for livelihoods of over 60 million people, damages associated with floods and sea level rise, and an increase in the incidence and severity of heat-related illnesses for workers. Some Key Findings of the VAR report include: Based on current values, impacts from climate change could cost the economies of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam approximately US$34 billion per year. This includes at least US$16 billion per year in damages to natural resource assets and infrastructure services (which represents between 7 and 30 percent of rural GDP in the LMB), and an additional US$18 billion of potential infrastructure damage or loss from flooding and other extreme weather events (see Figure 15). Economists generally distinguish between impacts to infrastructure and the services they generate (such as crop production). Figure 15: Economic Values at Risk of Climate Change Built infrastructure services (US$3.42 billion), crop production (US$2.54 billion), ecosystem services (US$1.24 billion) and hydroelectric power (US$430 million) are also at risk from climate change impacts. Worker productivity across the LMB is significantly threatened by climate change, accounting for more than US$8 billion at risk annually in lost work days resulting from heat-induced illness. High temperatures, already affecting open-air workers such as farmers and construction workers, will likely increase as a result of climate change, causing spikes in cases of heat stress and other heatrelated illnesses in the dry seasons. While the economic numbers derived in the VAR can help orient sectoral adaptation investments in a big picture sense, the most significant key finding is the sizeable impact on worker productivity, where FINAL REPORT 23

32 people and the economy directly intersect. There has been little attention paid to losses in worker productivity in climate adaptation discussions in the region. Tens of millions of outdoor workers are likely to experience greater levels of heat stress and heat-related illnesses when temperatures start rising above 40 C. Much of the LMB s economy is based on labor helping humans themselves adapt to temperature extremes in terms of worker productivity is something national governments need to put on their adaptation radar. Adaptation measures to deal with worker productivity should be fast tracked, such as workplace heat assessments, guidelines for recognizing heat stress, strengthening national health systems to address heat stress, or changes to working hours. Overall, the VAR analysis became a useful method of orienting the CCIA Study towards a policymaking and private sector audience. The results can be applied to help prioritize national adaptation plans and investments, assess cost effectiveness of adaptation investments and inform land use and other development plans to avoid unnecessary exposure to climate risks. 5. ECOSYSTEM SERVICE VALUATION The USAID Mekong ARCC Ecosystem Service Valuation (ESV) activity is another strategy the team used to translate research into a tangible adaptation planning tool. Given the LMB is home to an estimated 40 million rural people whose livelihoods farming, raising livestock, growing rice, or fishing are ecosystem dependent, having a grasp on the value of those ecosystems is critical. The ESV analysis provides an overview of how the values of ecosystem services can be estimated, and how policy makers and planners can use ESV to strengthen investment analyses. USAID Mekong ARCC wrote Country- Specific Guidelines for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam to not only highlight policy avenues where ESV can play a role, but also to present several options for how ESV analysis can strengthen government capacity to conduct, review and analyze development investments in their respective countries. Societies of the Lower Mekong Basin are predominantly ecosystem dependent. But, despite this reliance on natural systems by tens of millions of people in the LMB, economic development is often given precedence over conservation. Large scale projects such as hydropower or commercial production are easily framed in terms of economic gains. For decision makers, the default position is to conduct a cost benefit analysis without consideration of the values of ecosystem services. From a pure economic perspective, countries would be wise to acknowledge and account for the value of these important ecosystem services or risk making development and investment decisions where long term costs exceed returns and eliminate future development options. While economic returns are often easily identified (i.e. value of timber that can be sold by clearing a forest), the lost value of one or more ecosystem services (erosion control, sustained water supplies from intact watersheds etc.) are often difficult to estimate and not included in an investments cost-benefit analysis. Ecosystem degradation implies the loss of ecosystem services, which offer high and often hidden economic value to human societies. Ecosystem services are typically categorized into direct and indirect services. Direct services include the provisioning, regulatory, and cultural services that directly benefit people. Indirect services include nutrient cycling or primary production that maintain the functionality of the ecosystem. Clean water and air, microclimates for vegetation and healthy aquatic and terrestrial systems are just a few benefits that ecosystems provide for human benefit. 24 FINAL REPORT

33 Figure 16: Types of Ecosystem Services Guidelines author Dr. Talberth explains, The importance of ecosystem services cannot be underemphasized. Roughly 80 percent of the Greater Mekong's 300 million people depend directly on the goods and services its ecosystems provide. Therefore, if decision makers want good information about economic wellbeing in the LMB, inevitably they must employ the tools of ecosystem service valuation. One of the main uses of ESV is to inform policy decisions, particularly those related to protected areas, agriculture and aquaculture, hydropower development and urban growth and green infrastructure. For example, a 2011 study indicates that the benefits from dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin were reduced from positive US$33 billion to a negative US$ 274 billion when accounting for the loss of critical ecosystem services from fisheries and wetlands. Such information is critical in policymaking and can help governments pursue green growth policies. Figure 17 offers a snapshot of the ESV country guidelines developed as part of the ESV analysis under USAID Mekong ARCC. FINAL REPORT 25

34 Figure 17: ESV Country Guidelines 6. ONLINE ECOSYSTEM VALUATION ESTIMATOR Since it can be costly and time-consuming to conduct a full ESV assessment, the USAID Mekong ARCC project and the Mekong Region Futures Institute developed a free, web-based Ecosystem Value Estimator The online tool enables decision makers to gain a rapid estimate of the financial value of a given ecosystem and better understand the tradeoffs of proposed land use change and the existing ecosystem functioning of an area. Being able to provide easily and quickly accessible information is critical for supporting more informed decision-making in a region that is rapidly developing. The ESV estimator summarizes the results of all credible economic valuation studies that have been conducted in the LMB since It allows decision makers to get a very first estimation on what might be economically at stake by considering financial benefits generated by the ecosystems. 26 FINAL REPORT

35 To use the tool, a user enters the number of hectares of five prominent ecosystems of the LMB (evergreen forest, deciduous forest, wetlands, mangroves, and coast/islands with coral reefs) and the tool generates an estimated range of values of the ecosystem based on the results of a large amount of empirical research conducted in the LMB. The tool further breaks down the value of provisioning and regulatory services that the ecosystem provides based on the available data. The user does have to be aware that the range could be misguiding, because the user s contextual situation could be different from the studies that have been done in the past. However, the value is a comparative range, which is important because on the economic growth side of the decision, considerations will concern jobs at stake, tax revenues, royalties, or any other number of economic arguments. The user has to have a pragmatic argument to help present the tradeoffs. The USAID Mekong ARCC team applied the ESV tool to project sites to help add another layer of context for decision makers. For example, the 16-hectare Non Sao Ae forest in Thailand s Sakon Nakhon province, where USAID Mekong ARCC supported community resilience initiatives, provides around US$224,000 (THB 7.84 million) annually in provisioning services (food, fuelwood and other products) to the local community and surrounding areas. When analyzing future development investments in Sakon Nakhon, these initial estimates from the ESV estimator tool will help inform decision-makers with a more accurate picture of the economic costs and benefits of environmental degradation and conservation. The ESV estimator tool was built for a policymaking and private sector audience, and the values derived can inform three types of situations: 1. When a foreign investor approaches one ministry and articulates an opportunity with incentives (e.g. jobs, royalties received, tax revenue) but should actually be involving multiple ministries, for example, Ministries of Planning, Mines, Agriculture or Forestry, in the discussion. What the investor does not present are the tradeoffs; the current benefits the country will actually lose. This tool empowers environmental ministries by providing a dollar figure showing what will be lost. This will benefit the decision making process by enhancing consideration of a wider range of consequences. 2. Ministries or NGOs with a stake in the environment often write large reports and make assessments. This tool can offer up simple economic estimates. Currently, indicators that are used to assess the environmental outcomes of specific activities focus on land use change for example the number of hectares a forest or wetland gains or loses given a certain activity. This tool can add an economic dimension to such assessments. 3. The intention of the Estimator is not only to demonstrate what you could lose, but also to show what you could gain by rehabilitating wetlands or investing in reforestation. For example, the tool could provide an initial estimate of what rehabilitation might cost and what the resulting future benefits could be. Though it is not a full economic valuation, the Estimator provides a starting point for understanding economic trade-offs and enables users to make more sustainable development decisions. FINAL REPORT 27

36 C. SUMMARY OF RESULTS The practical objective of this stage of the project was to translate the best downscaled climate models into regional and sectoral vulnerabilities within the LMB, with a focus on identifying sites to initiate the USAID Mekong ARCC rural adaptation proof of concept. The CCIA Study itself was considered one of the most detailed and scientifically rigorous research efforts of its time in the LMB, thus the USAID Mekong ARCC team put time and resources behind turning it into useful communications tools. Scientific research developed by a development project is most useful when it moves out of purely academic realm and becomes useful in a development context. The USAID Mekong ARCC project team recognized that given the breadth and innovativeness of the CCIA Study, this was a necessary step to increase its impact. Significant effort was then required to distill this dense research into accessible and readable communications documents, and then to disseminate these widely by means of the global media, via web platforms, and through conference presentations and face to face meetings with regional actors. To illustrate how the CCIA Study made a positive impact on the development community, here are a few examples of how it was used: National Climate Change Committee for the Royal Government of Cambodia: Incorporated results from project Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study into Cambodia s Climate Change Strategic Plan ASEAN: CCIA Study results incorporated into chapter in the ASEAN Regional Guidelines for Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices, which was approved by the 10 ASEAN Ministers in Mekong River Commission (MRC): Datasets used in the MRC Council Assessment of Economic Development Impacts on the LMB and incorporated into 2014 assessment Crop production for food security and rural poverty Baseline and pilot modelling. Asian Development Bank (ADB): Cambodia Program Office Use of data in Climate Resilience and Provincial Road Improvement project to develop Cambodian National Vulnerability Map. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Case study example of vulnerability assessment in fisheries and aquaculture in 2015 Technical Paper Assessing climate change vulnerability in fisheries and aquaculture: Available methodologies and their relevance for the sector. World Food Programme of the United Nations: Incorporated CCIA Study data into a resilience mapping of livelihoods (Consolidated Livelihood Exercise to Analyze Resilience CLEAR) for Cambodia and Lao PDR. The World Bank: Cited the study in its 2013 paper Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience, which was the most downloaded publication ever on its website. D. LESSONS LEARNED The USAID Mekong ARCC team and development community learned a significant amount from a scientific and technical perspective after consuming the suite of knowledge products developed out of 28 FINAL REPORT

37 the CCIA, VAR and ecosystem valuation work undertaken by the project. This section focuses on a couple of programmatic lessons learned for future adaptation programs. The overarching lesson learned is a function of the program s theory of change, which challenged the team to develop a method to translate climate science into local adaptation decision making. To do so, the first fundamental step (beyond the research) is to package the why does it matter to me climate change story. The CCIA Study detail contains reams of granular information, but its utility can only be unlocked with the right translation for the appropriate audience. Two key lessons here are summarized as translation scientific projections and understanding the disconnect between science and local priorities. Translating Scientific Projections to Every Audience: Adaptation is national and local all at once. The policymaking and investment audience in the big cities need Values at Risk type reports that translate adaptation measures into broad-based economic terms that fit into their decision frameworks. At the local level, those same big numbers are meaningless so the CCIA Study had to be translated into micro-level impacts on a livelihood sector for it to resonate with a farmer s economic decision framework. Disconnect Between Science & Local Priorities: While scientific and economic analysis happens at the national level, adaptation strategies are owned by communities. Sometimes the economics or climate change directionality from scientific or economic analysis, such as the CCIA and VAR studies, say one thing, but the community perspective and their near-term economic incentives differ from the conceptual story they tell. For example, while crop suitability models show declining productivity of a common rice variety, rural farmers are often conservative since they incur financial costs when switching from one variety of crop or livestock to a new variety. Negotiating this impasse can be a challenge. Similarly, the CCIA focused on freshwater as an issue at the Kien Giang provincial level, which was the scale at which the analysis stopped, but this was not a concern for community beneficiaries living in coastal areas of Vietnam where sea level rise and salinity were larger threats. A further sitebased assessment of vulnerability was required to identify and design approaches to address the most critical threats faced at this very local level. Ultimately, the USAID Mekong ARCC project tested the limits of where the cutting-edge CCIA Study could take adaptation decision making. The next step was connecting it to community level decision making. FINAL REPORT 29

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39 SECTION II: LINKING SCIENCE AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE: THE APPLIED MODEL A. OBJECTIVES A legacy of the USAID Mekong ARCC project has been the pioneering of a packaged and replicable model that links downscaled climate science with local knowledge, which together enables ongoing adaptation decision making at the local level. The model developed titled the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework was used at pilot sites to select and design context-specific technical solutions for strengthening livelihood resilience in the face of climate change. The framework merges the best available climate science research with communities local experience and knowledge. Under this framework, science-based and community-based assessments are initially conducted as two distinct processes. A knowledge sharing process occurs when both the top-down and bottom-up assessments are evaluated and compared. A more holistic understanding emerges, which accounts for the longer term trajectory of climate provided by the scientific projections, along with the on-the-ground observations of how climate change is unfolding to date and specific effects on people, their livelihoods, and community resources. This merged understanding serves as the basis for developing adaptation solutions that fit the context and needs of individual communities. The ultimate objective of this element of the project the applied decision framework is to gain community buy-in and empower them to monitor, adjust, measure, learn and adapt to shifts in the local climate that impact their livelihoods and wellbeing. These skills are then manifested in the implementation of adaptation strategies in an ongoing and sustainable fashion. B. THE FRAMEWORK Based on the USAID Mekong ARCC Study, projections of the most significant changes for key hydroclimatic factors in the LMB, the program team selected five target locations to implement ecosystem and community-based adaptation initiatives (see Figure 5 on page 12). These hotspots represent some of the most threatened areas in the basin due to projected changes in temperature, drought, rainfall, and sea level rise. Listed from upper basin to lower, the pilot sites included villages in: 1. Chiang Rai, Thailand 2. Khammouan, Lao PDR 3. Sakon Nakhon, Thailand 4. Kampong Thom, Cambodia 5. Kien Giang, Vietnam FINAL REPORT 31

40 The USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework was applied at the community level at these sites, merging the best available climate science research with communities local expertise and knowledge. It consists of these four stages: Stage 1: Desk-Based Vulnerability Assessment (VA) Stage 2: The Community Climate Story (CCS) Stage 3: The Scientific Climate Story (SCS) Stage 3a: Shared Understanding Stage 3b: Scenario Development Stage 4: Planning Adaptation Initiatives The generalized process is depicted in Figure 18 and outlined in more detail below. Figure 18: USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework 32 FINAL REPORT

41 STAGE 1: LOCAL LEVEL VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS In the first step of the USAID Mekong ARCC Decision Making Framework, project implementers develop a desktop vulnerability assessment (VA) in which they gather data and conduct preliminary analyses around projected climate impacts and contextual factors influencing local adaptive capacity. This VA zooms down to the site level, which is finer scale than the CCIA where assessment of vulnerability that stopped its vulnerability analysis at the provincial level. Vulnerability is characterized by examining three primary components (climate threat exposure, sensitivity to those threats, and the adaptive capacity to respond) as they relate to key livelihoods, community resources, and ecosystems. In addition, implementers gave special consideration to understanding the differing vulnerabilities of men and women given their distinct gender roles in the community and household; as well as a given community s vulnerability to natural disasters, particularly within at-risk geographic areas. The project implementers at the pilot sites used a range of participatory tools and information including the following to support their desktop VAs: Climate Projections, Livelihood Threat Assessment Tables, Scientific Vulnerability Matrices, Gender Vulnerability Assessments, and Disaster Risk Assessments. More details on the VA toolkit used at USAID Mekong ARCC project sites can be found in the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework report. The VA considers the population and environment at a specific location as factors in vulnerability to climate change and other non-climate-related environmental and socio-economic factors. As explained in Section II of this report, vulnerability is commonly understood as a function of a population or system s Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity as detailed in Figure 1 on page 7. STAGE 2: COMMUNITY CLIMATE STORY Community Climate Story (CCS) activities are the next step to understanding vulnerability from the community perspective. Through a participatory process, this aspect of the USAID Mekong ARCC Decision Making Framework elucidates stakeholder concerns regarding their own experience and observations of climate change at the ground level. It also helps to characterize the community s biophysical and socioeconomic context, livelihood options, and decision-making processes. As a result, CCS activities facilitate community-based analysis of climate vulnerabilities at the village level, and provide a platform to engage people in the process of understanding and preparing for climate risks. Generally, the CCS process involves three steps. First, project implementers facilitate discussions among community participants around their key livelihoods, and help them to identify financial, physical, and natural assets contained within and around their villages. Second, the participants utilize vulnerability assessment tools to measure and consider the threats of changing climate to these key assets and livelihoods. Third, communities further refine and prioritize vulnerabilities by ranking livelihoods, resources, and threat severity, and by considering potential adaptive countermeasures. Specific tools used to achieve CCS outcomes include: Community/Village Mapping Exercises Prioritization of Livelihood Activities Seasonal Livelihoods Calendars Seasonal Hazard Calendars Historical Timelines referencing major events in the villages histories FINAL REPORT 33

42 Community Vulnerability Matrices Climate Hazards and Problems Ranking These participatory and practical tools are easily adapted and replicated, each being a tangible legacy USAID Mekong ARCC. Below is a small sample of these tools, for reference: Transect Walks & Mapping Transect maps provide an alternative snapshot of the community landscape, showing a rough approximation of topography, the location of natural resources, housing, crops, and other areas of importance. Project facilitators, village leaders, and other representatives of community members walk along a pre-defined transect to collect information and form a map. As geographic and human-built conditions change, these shifts in landscapes are noted along with their approximate distance along the transect line. The walk is also a good time to hold conversations and gather information from other community members who are engaging in their normal daily routines. Figure 19 provides an example of a transect map created for Kok Klang Village in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand. Figure 19: Village Transect Map for Kok Klang Village in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand (IUCN Thailand Kok Klang Village Community Climate Story Report, May 2014) 34 FINAL REPORT

43 Seasonal Livelihood Calendars Seasonal livelihood calendars show annual distribution of livelihoods within a community, for example, rice farming, livestock raising, gardening, fishing, and NTFP collection. The calendars include notes regarding planting cycles, resource prevalence, and gender roles. The following seasonal calendar (Table 1) shows the main livelihood activities of Khoum Kouanesam in Khammouan Province, Lao PDR throughout the year. Through village participation in constructing the calendar, the villagers noted livelihood activities applicable to men and women. Table 1: Seasonal Livelihood Calendar for Khoum Kouanesam, Lao PDR (IUCN Lao PDR, Community Climate Story Report, June 2014) Livelihood description Dry Season Rainy Season Dry Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1. Rice production PL 1 2. Livestock 3. Fishing xxx xxx 4. Grow Vegetables 5. Collect wild mushroom xxx xxx xxx 6. Collect bamboo shoot xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx 7. Rattan xxx Notes: Under rice production: PL-Prepare land; P-Planting; T-Transplanting; L-Look after crop; H-Harvest; M-predominant task by males; F-predominant task by females For items 4-7: Women collect wild mushroom, vegetable, bamboo shoot and rattan. XXX: Indicates heightened resource presence M P+T MF L MF L MF H 2 F H F H F Seasonal Hazard Calendars Seasonal hazard calendars list each of the hazards facing a community and note the prevalence and severity of such hazards on a month-to-month basis throughout the year. Hazard calendars also capture rough demarcation points between seasons at a given location (e.g., dry, rainy, hot, etc.). Table 2 below illustrates the main climate hazards for Khoum Kouanesam, Lao PDR. By comparing hazard calendars with seasonal livelihood calendars, communities can make observations regarding the seasonal timing of livelihood vulnerabilities. For example, while drought typically occurs between March and May in Kouanesam, if it extends into June or July (as occurred during the growing seasons of the 2014 and 2015 El Niño event) it can disrupt the normal planting and seeding schedule for rice cultivation with potentially significant impacts on overall crop productivity. 1 Land preparation includes plowing the soil and fencing which is the major task of men, however women also assist. 2 Harvesting is the major task of women; however men are responsible for collecting rice and bringing to the home. FINAL REPORT 35

44 Table 2: Hazard Calendar of Kouanesam (IUCN Lao PDR, Community Climate Story Report, June 2014) Dry Season Rainy Season Dry Events Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1. Flood ** ** ** ** 2. Drought ** ** ** 3. Rainfall ** ** ** ** ** ** ** 4. High Temperature ** *** Symbol Key: *: low; **: medium; ***: high STAGE 3: SCIENTIFIC CLIMATE STORY The third stage of the community adaptation planning process in the USAID Mekong ARCC Decision Making Framework involves three interrelated sets of activities: Stage 3) Scientific Climate Story (SCS) Stage 3a) Shared Understanding Stage 3b) Scenario Development In conducting these workshops, implementing partners (IPs) drew on the same pool of villagers that participated in the CCS activities so as to build off prior sessions and to continue engaging with participants who already committed time and energy to the process. The SCS workshop activities involve a two-step process of review and education. Key aspects include: An overview of the findings from the Climate Study including projections (temperature, rainfall, drought, flooding, etc.) to 2050 and the results of more localized VAs developed from the desktop VA using visual aids. A general climate education presentation, discussing and clarifying the difference between weather and climate, illustrating impacts of climate on livelihoods using video or drawings, and quizzing the participants in a game-like format to ensure understanding. STAGE 3A: SHARED UNDERSTANDING The Shared Understanding exercises provide a synthesis of the information gathered from the Climate Study, the VAs, and the CCS activities. The general workflow proceeds as follows: Facilitators present projected vulnerabilities based on the information gathered from the Climate Study and desktop VAs, and then review with the participants the community identified climate threats and livelihood vulnerabilities discussed in the CCS workshops. Next, in collaboration with the facilitators, participants explore the similarities and differences between the scientific- and community-derived vulnerability lists and discuss reasons for discrepancies. Facilitators give participants the option to re-rank or confirm their initial prioritization of climate threats and key vulnerabilities from the CCS. 36 FINAL REPORT

45 STAGE 3B: SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT Finally, following the Shared Understanding exercises, facilitators work with participants to identify problems and needs of their communities, and through Scenario Development exercises produce the following results: A detailed outcome map which establishes a long term community development vision and assesses short-, intermediate-, and long-term outcomes and activities they can implement now to achieve their vision. A rough roadmap listing adaptation measures designed to set each village on a sustainable course to a community-defined ideal future. The resulting community vision and outcome map developed through this stage becomes the basis of the community-driven adaptation plan. STAGE 4: PLANNING ADAPTATION INITIATIVES While the implementation stage, involving applied strategies, community learning, monitoring, and adapting further, is detailed in Section IV of this report, key cross-cutting elements that built the foundation for successful adaptation planning and implementation included raising awareness, community buy-in and women s empowerment. 1. Awareness Raising Because many rural villagers in the LMB have had relatively little formal education and are not accustomed to thinking beyond near-future timeframes, it can be challenging to improve awareness and understanding of potential climate change impacts on their communities. Participants work through these obstacles by discussing key terms and foundational concepts such as exploring the notion of shortterm weather conditions versus longer-term climatic patterns. Facilitators use a number of participatory tools to enable these discussions including videos, flip charts, drawings, and games. This approach helps community members evaluate how weather affects their work and lives on a daily, weekly, and even seasonal basis versus the bigger picture relevance of climate affecting larger livelihood options such as crop choices and other community investment decisions. Showing how climate is relevant to key crops (e.g., what can be grown given the usual temperature and rainfall patterns for a certain area) enhances community understanding of future implications when discussing climate change. Facilitators may quiz participants in a fun, game-like style to gauge the level of understanding and make adjustments to their workshop process as necessary. Drawings and cards also help to illustrate how specific climate factors influence community livelihoods or ecosystem vulnerability (Figure 20). In some communities in USAID Mekong ARCC sites for example, facilitators asked villagers to select a climate card and present to the group on how that climatic factor affected their livelihood. Awareness raising is not a one-off event but should be reinforced frequently throughout field activities so that villagers do not lose sight of their resiliency goals. The awareness step is critical not only for capacity building and encouraging the ongoing adapt-learnadapt again cycle, but also to establish community buy-in. FINAL REPORT 37

46 2. Community Buy-In Figure 20: Sample of drawing cards used in awareness raising activities The USAID Mekong ARCC Decision Making Framework is a foundational process in implementing rural adaptation programming. Beyond the technical and practical elements it entails, one of the most important outcomes from continuous local engagement is attaining community buy-in and ownership of adaptation planning and implementation. Kok Klang Village Vision: A harmonious community with clean and adequate water for consumption and agriculture, adequate rice and food for domestic consumption, a variety of beautiful natural assets, reduced agricultural chemicals uses, and restored ecosystems and biodiversity. Gaining community buy-in through direct engagement from the start in the decision making process is critical to the success of implementing adaptation actions. Rather than present a menu of adaptation options to a community, facilitators listen to the vulnerabilities that people experience and seek to understand how the changing climate is impacting their livelihoods. The USAID Mekong ARCC Decision Making Framework not only serves as a needs assessment but also as the first building blocks for participants to envision a desired future. The shared visions usually focused on access to clean water and air, abundance of trees and wildlife, and secure livelihoods through healthy crops and agriculture. Through the outcome mapping, communities' themselves actually gave the ideas for activities they wanted to implement. When the ideas come from them, it is already a foot hold into buy-in and sustainability (see box on the left). Through the participatory process, communities not only increase their awareness of climate change, but it provides a forum for their voices to be heard in the decision making process. When USAID Mekong ARCC arrived in Kampong Thom, Cambodia, the communities immediately reported to project partners, that they 'needed' roads. Through the USAID Mekong ARCC framework, which fully engaged commune leadership, villagers not only revealed that their most pressing needs were water infrastructure and agricultural techniques, but that appreciated the voice they had in the commune planning process. 38 FINAL REPORT

47 The USAID Mekong ARCC team found that communicating the complexities of climate projections and adaptation options worked best when using illustrations and games that allowed participants to connect their local experience to the concept of climate change. The human touch captured in Figure 21 below encouraged more participation at the local level, where planning was couched as an ongoing learning process rather than a pick one option dilemma. The Farmer s Planning Dilemma: Weather vs. Climate Figure 21: The Farmer s Planning Dilemma: Weather vs. Climate FINAL REPORT 39

48 3. Empowerment of Women Within the adaptation visioning and scenario planning, USAID Mekong ARCC teams took care to incorporate the local context in terms of gender norms, specifically as they pertain to the social and economic roles of women. Stress from climate change inevitably impacts women in a specific fashion based on their roles and rights within a community, so linking science to local knowledge also means linking it to gender roles. Two key areas incorporated in all adaptation planning processes were livelihoods and health concerns and the roles women play within each. Livelihoods While specific livelihoods and roles of men and women differed across the community sites, there were some similarities among them. Women were predominantly responsible for tasks such as collecting water, gathering NTFPs for consumption or sale, and caregiving. They also may have specific tasks related to rice cultivation and animal husbandry. Outside of the household, some women earned income running a small business or selling handicrafts, or working on plantations as casual laborers, in beauty salons, garment factories or construction. In several communities, it was more likely for men to migrate to a neighboring province or country for work than women. Climate change already does, and will continue to, impact local livelihoods and gender roles. Generally speaking, in settings where women s opportunities are more constrained than men s and their responsibilities are closely tied to natural resources, their livelihoods are more likely to be negatively affected by climate and non-climate-related changes in their environment. For example, water shortage during the dry season requires women and girls in Lao PDR s Nakai District to walk several kilometers and wait in long lines every day to collect water for household use. These prolonged chores take time and energy away from their several other daily responsibilities. Health Climate change impacts on key livelihood resources can also cause indirect health consequences. For example, if women are predominantly responsible for taking care of livestock when the livestock is unhealthy which is reportedly the case in community sites in Kampong Thom this may put them at disproportionate risk of exposure to zoonotic diseases. Another consideration is the additional burden that climate-related illnesses of relatives may place on women, who are often primary caregivers. Treating water for drinking purposes is not widely practiced, leading to higher prevalence of waterborne illness. In the project communities in Khammouan, 30 percent of children were considered underweight. Additionally, there is a reluctance to vaccinate children for childhood illnesses and no apparent efforts to raise awareness about vaccinations. Increased risk of heat stress and vector- and water-borne illness due to rising temperatures and other climate change impacts will likely exacerbate existing maternal and child health issues, and place further pressure on under-resourced healthcare facilities. 40 FINAL REPORT

49 With water shortages during the dry season, women who are primarily responsible for collecting water must travel further to find water, leaving less time for their other duties. If women must travel further afield to collect water or NTFPs, they may potentially be at higher risk of encountering unexploded ordnances (UXOs) left from the Indochina Wars. Some districts in Khammouan have a very high density of UXOs, and climate change may potentially increase people s risk as they push into new areas of land as land suitability changes. Source: Lao PDR Vulnerability Assessment, Lao PDR Draft National Disaster Management Plan C. SUMMARY OF RESULTS The overarching results achieved under the Linking Science and Local Knowledge element of the project can be summarized by two main outcomes. 1. USAID Mekong ARCC designed and documented a first generation how to framework for combining climate science with local community knowledge. The USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework, summarized above and detailed in the document titled Planning and Implementing Rural Adaptation Initiatives in the Lower Mekong Methods Applied to Integrate Climate Science and Local Knowledge, is an important legacy of the USAID Mekong ARCC project that can be replicated in future generations of rural adaptation programs. 2. A key objective of Linking Science and Local Knowledge is gaining community buy-in and infusing the core concepts of climate impacts and adaptation planning into community decision making. The project helped to educate communities on climate change and jointly design climate adaptation measures to implement going forward. To measure USAID Mekong ARCC s impact in this arena, community surveys illustrate a summary of the project impact. (See Annex II) FINAL REPORT 41

50 100% 90% 80% 87% 80% 93% 87% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 45% 38% 30% 20% 61% 64% 52% 58% 0% Mar 2014 (n=580) Nov 2014 (n=524) Feb 2016 (n=479) Know CC Know at least one adaptation strategy Have some understanding about CC Currently practicing adaptation Figure 22: Knowledge and Practice on Climate Change: Kien Giang, Chiang Rai and Sakon Nakhon Combined 42 FINAL REPORT

51 Baseline Midterm (excluding Kampong Thom and Khammouan) Endline Figure 23: Number of respondents who knew at least one adaptation strategy at baseline (all), midterm (excluding Kampong Thom and Khammouan), and endline (all) Ultimately, the time invested in participatory adaptation planning and decision making is reflected in terms of self-reported levels of understanding climate change impacts and adapatation strategies. Given adaptation planning is a very new and evolving proces, the USAID Mekong ARCC achievements in infusing climate change into local decision making were significant for a first-generation adaptation project. D. LESSONS LEARNED Through applying the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework, the team learned a number of lessons around the connectivity between scientific findings and community decision making structures. This section categorizes the lessons under community engagement; learning and communication; and methodology. Community Engagement Community ownership of adaptation planning is paramount to success. Direct and regular input and validation via the decision-making process allowed communities to developed community owned adaptation plans. By using a participatory process that utilized hands-on tools to help community members visualize and relate their climate experiences, they were empowered to develop an adaptation plan that was contextualized to local interests and needs. In Vietnam, for instance, partners utilized various visual techniques to help community members learn and discuss how shrimp farming will decrease due to temperature increase. FINAL REPORT 43

52 In Vietnam, villagers of Thuan Hoa commune, Kien Giang Province, are engaged by establishing a nexus between climate science and on-the-ground community-led adaptation responses through drawing cards. Awareness about local context is key to establishing effective participation and community level engagement. Local context can affect participation, such as culture and social tensions. How partners encouraged participation when merging CCS and SCS differed among the various sites. For instance, in Lao PDR, because women do not usually engage in public discussions, partners encouraged them to voice their concerns privately or among women groups. Although men and women are able to participate in public discussions freely in Thailand, social tensions between groups did not make participation easy for some. Thus, facilitators spoke to individual community members to avoid public confrontation. These examples demonstrate the importance of understanding local context that determines who can engage in developing adaptation plans as well as the importance of experienced partners who know the local context, can develop trust and rapport with community members, and can encourage participation accordingly. Learning & Communication Learning about climate change is a process. Learning about climate change and livelihood vulnerabilities does not happen in one session but over time. Repeated visits to field sites and using powerful communication methods remind community members what climate change means and why community members should continue to engage in the process. This is especially important in areas that have limited access throughout the year. Engaging 44 FINAL REPORT

53 community members in the learning process needs to be an ongoing activity so that community members do not forget what they have learned. Local champions from local organizations who would potentially be engaged in implementing the adaptation plan can also help refresh understanding of climate change and keep the project vision active. Making SCS credible and salient depends on communication methods. As climate science is new to most rural people, it can be challenging to make it credible and relevant. While community members deal with weather hazards on a regular basis, they are not used to technical terminology and planning far into the future. In order to overcome this challenge, it was important to localize the scientific information to make the SCS relevant to their experiences. For instance, IPs connected messages from the SCS to impacts on farming, which was relevant to participant s livelihoods. The use of communication methods such as the diagram on how shrimp production is affected by higher temperatures, videos and edu-tainment in Vietnam, helped create credibility and relevance of scientific findings from SCS while maintaining community engagement in the learning process. Methodology Local level climate studies are critical for designing adaptation plans. Although the CCIA Study downscaled climate science to the provincial level, this was still too high level to influence localized adaptation plans. Because communities have varying microclimates and each pursue differing food and income generating options, the CCIA Study was supplemented with a local community vulnerability and impact assessment. For instance, in Vietnam provincial level findings of the CCIA found that freshwater was an issue in Kien Giang province, yet at a local level this was not a concern for those project target villages living in coastal areas of Vietnam where sea level rise and salinity were larger threats. To supplement the CCIA, facilitators used local level vulnerability assessments and local scientific studies on present and future salinity, local participants then used to develop their adaptation plans. It is possible to plan for long-term adaptation if timeframes are broken down. Long term adaptation planning is a challenge. People face difficulties planning 5 years in advance let alone 35 years in advance. One way in which to address adaptation planning is to break down the planning into the present, intermediate future (5 years from now), and long term (35 years from now) when developing outcome maps. Most people are able to plan for the present and possibly the intermediate future but planning beyond 5 years requires people to connect the future with something tangible in the present: their children and immediate climate threats. It was important to facilitate discussion with community members around how they envisioned their children s future while thinking about climate hazards they face today. SCS projections provided community members further insight into significant climate hazards that community members may not have perceived to be a threat in the present and future. Therefore, connecting the future change to something tangible at the present is an effective way to plan long term. FINAL REPORT 45

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55 SECTION III: COMMUNITY ADAPTATION IN ACTION A. OBJECTIVES After the systematic and detailed process of linking climate science with community knowledge, the implementation of adaptation activities is where USAID Mekong ARCC sought direct impact on livelihood, ecosystem and health resilience strengthening at the community level. Bolstering the adaptation response of the 30,000 villagers in the pilot sites was the overarching objective at this stage, but a secondary but still highly important objective was building an evidence base of adaptation strategies that, together with the USAID Mekong ARCC Decision Framework, would serve as a proof of concept for how to carry out a rigorous and community-driven adaptation program. The community action plans facilitated by USAID Mekong ARCC varied widely in priority sites across the LMB, reflecting diverse measures to protect important livelihoods and improve food security and wellbeing. As most villagers are risk averse and have few resources to leverage, the measures were not necessarily radical changes, but did show a willingness to take risks, including both altering long-standing methods and trying new livelihood approaches, to strengthen their resilience. Adaptation activities taken at USAID Mekong ARCC sites include strategies such as improved rice-shrimp farming techniques, climate-smart pig raising, integrated farming and agriculture diversification, water storage and filtration initiatives, household frog and fish ponds, and small-scale water supply infrastructure. To set the context, prior to detailing the adaptation categories and specific activities, a snapshot of the USAID Mekong ARCC project sites follows. B. ACTIVITY REVIEW Consistent with the scientific findings from the CCIA Study, rural communities at the USAID Mekong ARCC sites reported vulnerabilities related to: Increasing temperatures Increasingly variable rainfall patterns from year to year More prolonged and severe periods of drought Increasingly frequent and intense storms and floods Rising sea level and corresponding salinity intrusion Of priority concern to communities regarding impacts to rural livelihoods were issues related to increasingly variable rainfall patterns first and foremost, although other issues including large storm events were also important. Sea level rise and salinity intrusion was very important to farmers in the Mekong Delta. Adaptation measures implemented at USAID Mekong ARCC pilot sites spanned a range of strategies all addressing shifts in climate projected through the CCIA which fit into these six broad categories: Water Infrastructure and Management FINAL REPORT 47

56 Climate Smart Agricultural Techniques Livestock Management Aquaculture Forest Restoration and Management Community Organization and Capacity Building. C. COUNTRY SITES Each USAID Mekong ARCC project site faced different projected impacts from climate change, and thus the work undertaken by project staff and implementing partners at each site (see Figure 24) reflects its distinct profile and local context. Below we give an overview of each site s provincial climate risk profile. Figure 24: USAID Mekong ARCC project sites and collaborating implementing partners 48 FINAL REPORT

57 THAILAND Chiang Rai, Thailand and surrounding provinces in the northwestern area of the LMB are expected to experience gradual increases in average daily temperatures by about 2 C and total annual precipitation is projected to increase by 9-18 percent by In addition, storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent. Heavy rains, especially those associated with tropical cyclones or typhoons, can cause dangerous flash floods and landslides in the mountains, and extensive and prolonged flooding in the plains. Related agricultural impacts include serious erosion problems especially on tilled land in the mountains and occasionally crops can be washed away. Flooding also can inundate and destroy crops in the plains or cause them to rot in the field. Corresponding problems with water quality and heightened water-borne disease transmission are anticipated, particularly in village water supply systems that today are underdeveloped and unable to provide clean water on a consistent basis. Larger and more frequent storms equate to more runoff carrying eroded materials, flooding, and landslides, all of which can compromise water infrastructure and its capacity to supply reliably clean water. Extended droughts, especially during and El Nino years, can result in reservoirs and aquifers not being fully replenished during the wet season, and then exacerbate water shortages during the subsequent dry season. Preparing water systems and conservation measures to handle the added stress on supplies especially late in the dry season is paramount to resilient adaptation. Sakon Nakhon is a northeastern province of Thailand, an area also known as the Isan region. Both increased temperature and rainfall are expected for this area with potentially negative effects on crop productivity. For example, increased precipitation during the typically wettest month of August in Sakon Nakhon could negatively impact rice culture if it exceeds the crop s upper limit of tolerance. A decrease in productivity has the potential to significantly affect the livelihoods and food security of farmers throughout the province. Increased temperature and rainfall will also affect yields of commercial crops widely grown in Sakon Nakhon, such as cassava, and rubber. Issues related to water quality during and following heavy rainfall events, and water quantity particularly toward the end of the dry season are also concerns for Sakon Nakhon and surrounding areas. Increasing temperatures in Sakon Nakhon may threaten various agricultural crops and other livelihood systems including reduced yields of subsistence crops, and reduced livestock reproduction rates and immunity to diseases due to heat stress. LAO PDR Khammouan is situated within mostly forested, mountainous terrain of Central Lao PDR, although the province also includes flatter, lowland areas to the west along the Mekong River. Through 2050, Khammouan and nearby areas are projected to experience an increase in average annual precipitation of 8-18 percent, exacerbating similar vulnerabilities related to agriculture and water quality as was described for Chiang Rai, Thailand in the preceding section. Khammouan and the surrounding area are projected to experience a temperature increase of roughly 2 C by 2050 which could have detrimental effects on agricultural production. The additional heat during the dry season will be problematic for water supplies, particularly in those areas that are already FINAL REPORT 49

58 underserved. In Lao PDR, many rural communities are at risk with the World Bank reporting that over 30 percent of rural populations in Lao PDR do not have access to an improved drinking water source. CAMBODIA Kampong Thom is located in the central part of Cambodia between the Tonle Sap Lake to the west and the Mekong River mainstream to the east. With climate change, daily maximum temperatures will increase significantly between 2 C and 4 C throughout the year by Central Cambodia is also one of the areas most threatened by increasing drought within the LMB, with the annual drought projected to increase percent, from months to months in duration. Extending the drought particularly at the end of the dry season will impact the availability of critical fisheries habitat components and will reduce water quality in aquaculture ponds. Increasing precipitation during the rainy season (approximately 14 percent higher for average years) will create problems related to waterlogging of crops and flood-related illness, which communities will need to prepare for along with the extended and drier dry seasons. Similar to Lao PDR, Cambodia s water sector is underdeveloped with over 30 percent of rural populations unable to access improved water sources. VIETNAM Sea level rise (SLR) will cause drastic changes in Kien Giang, Vietnam and surrounding provinces of the Mekong Delta, including the inundation and erosion of coastal areas, salinity intrusions into aquifers progressing further inland, and increased depth and duration of flooding following heavy rainfall events. Sea level rise and corresponding salinity intrusion is affecting all aspects of rural livelihoods in coastal areas of the Mekong Delta. Increasing salinity reduces yields of traditional rice varieties, puts stress on aquaculture systems such that certain cultured species are no longer viable, and infiltrates groundwater supplies. The rising sea level and storm surges erode the coastline, resulting in significant land loss. Land retreat in Kien Giang Province alone has been recorded up to 25m per year for certain sections of coastline. Meanwhile, the continuing construction of dams on the Mekong River and its tributaries is reducing the silt load delivered to the delta so that the normal land accretion is being reversed. This reduced deposition of silt in the delta also will increase the rate of coastal inundation due to sea level rise from climate change. Kien Giang and surrounding delta provinces will experience more moderate changes in precipitation and daily maximum temperature than other areas in the LMB, but not without the potential for significant impacts on livelihoods and human health. Annual precipitation will increase by 5-8 percent and daily maximum temperatures will increase 5-10 percent. Increasing drought is also projected for this area of the basin. 50 FINAL REPORT

59 Figure 25: Key Climate Impacts by Site D. ADAPTATION CATEGORIES The use of native chicken and pig species can handle higher temperatures in Thailand s north and northeastern provinces. FINAL REPORT 51

60 From the site level risk profiles, laid out above, the USAID Mekong ARCC team understood some overarching adaptation strategies around key sectors. For example, farmers will need to modify their production systems by adopting better adapted varieties of traditional crops, and in some cases shifting to completely different crops. Similarly, increased drought will mean exacerbating already tenuous water supply situations in a number of communities. As the project developed specific measures to address these sectoral vulnerabilities, they began to gravitate towards a set of similar adaptation categories that are relevant across the LMB. Adaptation activities implemented that generally fit into six broad categories: Water Infrastructure and Management, Climate Smart Agricultural Techniques, Livestock Management, Aquaculture, Forest Restoration and Management, and Community Organization and Capacity Building. Descriptions of each of these categories follow. Water Infrastructure and Management involves activities geared toward the construction or rehabilitation of water supply systems including the installation of water filtration systems, and the use of water meters to monitor and respond to community water use. This category also includes irrigation and flood control projects, such as canal construction to supply water to agricultural fields during dry periods and dyke construction to mitigate flood events. Climate Smart Agricultural Techniques incorporate practices that build resilience into farming systems such as crop diversification to reduce reliance on monocultures and the use of native rice and other crop varieties that can handle more extreme climatic conditions. Integrated farming approaches are used to conserve valuable soil and water resources, enhance positive feedback loops, and foster sustainability. Livestock Management activities include the construction of housing that improves ventilation and drainage, and the incorporation of organic bed materials with enzymes to break down waste (bio-mattress). Projects also include the use of native chicken and pig species that can handle higher temperatures. Vulnerable groups (women, ethnic minorities, and landless poor) in particular benefit from the supplemental income generated by livestock projects, thereby increasing their resilience to climate change. Aquaculture activities include projects that improve the rice-shrimp rotational farming system in the Mekong Delta, such as installing shrimp nurseries to improve productivity of aquaculture ponds; monitoring water quality parameters including temperature, dissolved oxygen, and salinity levels to inform management decisions; and improving the selection, testing, and cooperative purchase of post larval shrimp. Aquaculture systems in in-land areas include small-scale frog and catfish ponds to provide an additional protein and income source for households. Forest Restoration and Management builds community organization and social capital by the formation of management committees that protect and regulate use of community forests. Activities also include forest restoration plantings, and training workshops on the use of mangroves to minimize erosion in coastal areas. 52 FINAL REPORT

61 Community Organization and Capacity Building activities include awareness-raising on climate change and adaptation, and monitoring and interpreting weather forecast information. This category also includes the monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment of ongoing adaptation activities as well as the incorporation and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into planning structures and processes. Additional training on alternative livelihoods reduces risk by diversifying income generation potential. To capture a cross-section of adaptation categories and how specific strategies were applied at the site level, the following section highlights examples of each category implemented at USAID Mekong ARCC project sites. 1. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Key water resource vulnerabilities experienced by participating communities of the USAID Mekong ARCC project include crop water insufficiency, drinking water insufficiency, and degraded water quality. Crop water insufficiency is a key vulnerability identified by the majority of project villages and is consistent with other findings reported above. For example, in Koun Tnaot Village of Kampong Thom Province, in the central lowlands of Cambodia, villagers reported a percent loss in vegetable and rice paddy production as a result of not having sufficient water to maintain their crops during the intermittently dry 2014 growing season. Adaptation must address the challenge of having enough water at the right time for sustaining and improving crop production in coming years. Women and girls from Ban Xong Village, Khammouan, Lao PDR collect water and bath at the newly constructed water tank and piping. FINAL REPORT 53

62 Drinking water insufficiency was a key vulnerability across the project s pilot communities. In Sakon Nakhon Province of northeastern Thailand, Kok Klang Village depends on natural springs for their household water supply. Regular rainfall is needed to recharge the springs, and they are particularly vulnerable to drying up late in the dry season. Extended drought such as the El Niño event along with the higher temperatures and drier dry season months projected to worsen with climate change, place additional strain on the community s already insufficient water supply. Likewise, in Khammouan Province, Lao PDR, the pilot communities in Nakai District are prone to dwindling water supplies toward the end of the dry season due to inadequate water supply infrastructure. As such, these communities are particularly at risk due to the impacts of increasingly variable and delayed rainfall patterns that are now unfolding as a consequence of climate change. In addition to water quantity, water quality is also problematic and a key vulnerability for many communities in the LMB. In Chiang Rai Province, Thailand in the northern reaches of the basin, Huai Kang Pla and Hae Ko pilot villages have fairly reliable water sources although the quality is degraded by heavy rainfall events and villagers suffer from water-borne diseases and general health issues related to the poor drinking water quality. With the projected increasing magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events, more degradation of water supplies here and elsewhere is anticipated. Adequate filtration and other avenues for ensuring access to clean water are critical for LMB communities to prepare for the larger rainfall events associated with climate change. Small Scale Water Infrastructure Under the project, three Nakai District villages in Lao PDR successfully installed new and rehabilitated gravity-fed systems drawing water from local mountain streams to address their water supply deficit. They also constructed storage tanks, installed water distribution pipelines and taps, and improved wash platforms. Details of these initiatives are provided in Table 3. Table 3: Summary of Water Improvement Activities in Nakai District, Khammouan Province, Lao PDR Summary of Water Improvement Activities in Nakai District pilot villages Ban Xong Village Ban Yang Village Ban Donekeo Village Rehabilitation of existing pipeline in Ban Xong Village (approx. 593 residents) new intake structure with stone weir, reinforced concrete structure, and basic filtration; 15 reinforced concrete columns along unsupported sections of pre-existing pipeline; 10,000 L concrete storage tank with 3 taps; 5 m x 4 m concrete wash platform with improved drainage Rehabilitation of existing pipeline in Ban Yang Village (approx. 407 residents) relocation of intake structure with basic filtration; 20 reinforced concrete columns along unsupported sections of pre-existing pipeline; replacement of damaged and leaking pipe sections; retrofitting of pre-existing (but not yet used) 11,000 L concrete storage tank with 3 taps; 5 m x 4 m concrete wash platform with adequate drainage Construction of a new gravity fed water system in Ban Donekeo Village (approx. 396 residents) including construction of a stone masonry weir at the intake location, a reinforced concrete intake structure with basic filtration, a 3.4 km pipeline, a break-pressure tank, a 10,000 L concrete storage tank, and five distribution tap stands 54 FINAL REPORT

63 In Chey Commune of Kampong Thom Province, Cambodia, lack of water is a major concern in the community. Rice is their primary subsistence crop, and most villagers harvest one rain fed crop per year. With increasingly unreliable rainfall conditions, their yields have declined significantly in recent years. In addition, their water supply is also insufficient to support household or domestic uses and to provide for livestock. Two connected dykes in Areak Village, Chey Commune are constructed to control flood waters and also serves as road. To adapt to the increasingly unreliable rainfall, the pilot village of Areak has constructed two dykes that will help them manage the water in their fields. The dykes serve to reduce flooding during intense storms and double as roads with drainage ditches. The pilot village of Tha Teav constructed a canal, connected to a water source, to hold rain water for the rice crop during the dry season and channels that water to agricultural fields for irrigation. While the project originally approved a 700m canal, the community invested to extend the canal for an additional 700 meters for irrigation of cropland and community water storage. Water Meters, Filters and Community Management Committees Community members in Kok Klang village of north-eastern Thailand s Sakon Nakhon Province are acting now to improve their preparedness for the impacts of climate change. Already facing greater rainfall variability and more extreme dry seasons, Kok Klang identified their primary vulnerability as water scarcity, especially during the dry season, and its impacts on the health and livelihoods of their community. To address this vulnerability, villagers identified the need to improve water conservation and management as a means to confronting a key component underlying their deficit in water supply. With local administration support, a water tower was constructed, and another small reservoir was built nearby for the village water supply. FINAL REPORT 55

64 As a first step, the community established a water management committee of nine elected representatives, three from each of three water separate water supply sections of the village. The committee decided to install household water meters to measure water usage, and set appropriate limits, above which households will be required to pay for water use. The resulting fund is used to maintain water pipes and resolve other issues that arise with the community s water supply system. The village anticipates the primary benefit of the system is greater water conservation with a side-benefit of more equitable distribution of the resource throughout the community. Water filtration system installed at project site in Chiang Rai Province, Thailand In addition, Kok Klang Village has also established a forest management committee which has organized community tree plantings and other restoration activities. The management of the forest directly ties into the health of the watershed and maintaining a clean and abundant water supply. In the pilot village of Hae Ko in Chiang Rai Province, Thailand, the water source s turbidity levels increase significantly during heavy rainfall. Households have tried to address this issue by using a filter cloth at individual outlets. This strategy, however, does not fully mitigate the impacts of heavy rainfall on water quality, and the village has suffered from health issues related to water-borne diseases. As an adaptation strategy, Hae Ko installed a water filtration system to supply 49 households. Along with a filtration mechanism, the system includes a new tank, splash plate, flow meters, and protective fence. Hae Ko villagers also developed a monthly maintenance plan to flush the filter system and clear the weeds around the filter installation. They also started monitoring village health statistics to document changes before and after the filter system was installed to determine if additional measures are necessary to address public health concerns. 56 FINAL REPORT

65 2. INTEGRATED FARMING AND DIVERSIFIED LIVELIHOODS As shown above, by 2050 the LMB is projected to gradually become significantly warmer (by about 2 C on average) and wetter (with up to 18 percent more rainfall depending on the location), and to be subjected to more frequent and stronger storm events. The increasing average daily temperature is expected to have a significant impact on agricultural systems, changing the productivity of the traditional crop and livestock systems in many areas, making some areas less suitable for certain crops and more suitable for the introduction of other crops. These climate vulnerabilities of farm households and farming communities can be reduced by diversifying their production systems, which may include field crops, home gardens, livestock and/or aquaculture. Diversification does not guarantee that the farmers agricultural production will increase, or even be maintained at the same level over time; but it does reduce the risk of catastrophic crop failures resulting in farm families experiencing increasing hardships, or even being forced into bankruptcy. The USAID Mekong ARCC integrated farming and livelihood diversification work included the following strategies: Climate Smart Agriculture At Pa Tueng Sub District in Chiang Rai, Thailand, the USAID Mekong ARCC team introduced integrated farming systems to reduce erosion and increase production on steeply sloping mountainsides. The aim was to replace annual field crops such as maize for which the soil is turned over for each new planting, with perennial crops such as Assam tea and fruit trees that do not require the soil to be turned over annually. The practice helped maintain watershed integrity, improved soil quality, and reduced the soil erosion that is becoming more severe due to increased storm intensity. Livestock An improved system of small-scale household pig production was introduced in Pa Tueng Sub- District, Chiang Rai (Thailand), Kok Klang Village, Sakon Nakhon (Thailand) and Thuan Hoa Commune, Kien Giang (Vietnam) with mixed results. The system entailed raising pigs on a bio-mattress or compost bed that was inoculated with microorganisms to enhance the decomposition of the pig wastes and to create clean compost for application to home gardens and crop fields. The new system also eliminates foul odors emanating from the pigpens; reduces water wastage by eliminating the need to flush waste from the pigpens, and by installing taps that deliver drinking water only on demand; and reduces the likelihood of diseases by keeping water and feed cleaner. The system is working well in several villages in Pa Tueng Sub-District and in Kok Klang, but failed in other villages in Pa Tueng Sub-District and in Thuan Hoa Commune. The main reason for the lack of success is poor site selection and/or inadequate site preparation which led to waterlogging, resulting in the compost beds rotting and harboring fungus. In mountainous Pa Tueng Sub-District, some of the compost beds were located at the foot of steep slopes where rainwater runoff would flow into them; and in the villages of low-lying coastal Thuan Hoa Commune, the compost beds were not raised up high enough to prevent groundwater from entering (the bottom of the compost bed must be open to the ground, not sealed). The system still could be successful in those locations if the compost beds were located and constructed so as to eliminate flooding. The project provided additional training support through the local Livestock Department in Pa Tueng to address these challenges. FINAL REPORT 57

66 Aquaculture Household-level fishponds are a viable option for mitigating the loss in natural fisheries due to climate and other non-climate factors and can be part of the integrated farming system. Fishponds improve food security by providing a household protein source, and some of the fish also may be sold for household income. Having this household-based food source decreases the pressure on surrounding wetland areas, minimizing overharvest of natural aquatic populations. The pilot village of Ban Kouanesam, in Nakai District of Lao PDR, constructed 10 household-level fishponds at a depth of 20 cm and lined the beds with plastic sheeting. Removable shade cloths provide cooling during the dry season, but can be easily taken down during storms. The project provided common species to Lao PDR; Clarias sp. (catfish) and Rana rugulosa (common lowland frog) to stock the ponds. The project partnered with the Department of Agricultural Extension and Cooperatives (DAEC), from the Lao Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, which provided staff to travel to Ban Kouanesam to instruct and monitor pond construction. DAEC staff also provided training on feeding and general pond maintenance. Utilizing government extension increased the potential for sustainability and scalability across other nearby villages in the region. Intercropping The Government of Vietnam promoted the rice-shrimp rotational system in the Mekong Delta in the early 2000s in a new food security-oriented agricultural policy that also intended to increase delta farmers income generation. In this dual system, shrimp are raised in brackish water during the dry season (February to June) and rice is grown during the rainy season (August to December). At the end of the shrimp crop, the saline water that accumulates during the dry season is flushed out of the shallow ponds through wet season rainfall (June to August) to prepare them for growing rice. Small-holder rice-shrimp farming field with deep channel just inside the bank, and a shallow area in the center where rice grows. 90 percent of rural land holdings in the Mekong Delta are under 5 ha. Rice-shrimp farmers now face less reliable rainfall patterns, higher temperatures in the dry season that negatively affect the shrimp, and sea level rise and salinity intrusion that force the rice-shrimp culture to move progressively inland. Due to these changing conditions, delta farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to sufficiently flush their ponds of saline water prior to planting rice. The functioning of the rice-shrimp system can also be impacted by socio-economic factors that amplify climate-driven problems such as: Financial pressure on farmers to delay shrimp harvest limiting transition period for rice crop Late shrimp harvest that exacerbates salinization issues, negatively impacting rice crops Poor quality post larvae shrimp used by farmers due to lack of adequate information 58 FINAL REPORT

67 The USAID Mekong ARCC project worked with Thuan Hoa pilot farmers during to improve the climate resilience of the rice-shrimp rotational system. Below are the main aspects of the adaptation solutions piloted. Salt-tolerant rice and sedge species: Farmers participating in the pilot projects in Thuan Hoa incorporated salt-tolerant rice into their systems as it is more resilient than traditional rice breeds to salt residue in the soil caused by the combined effects of inadequate and/or variable rainfall, rising sea levels, and the increased occurrence of storms and flash floods that cause saline water in canals to flood into rice fields more extensively. In locations where salinity levels were more extreme, farmers incorporated salt-tolerant sedge grass in place of the rice crop which provides valuable habitat for shrimp and reduces feeding costs. Shrimp nursery and improved post-larvae (PL) selection: Pilot farmers received training on shrimp nursery construction and how to select high quality PL for purchase. The typical shrimp pond configuration has a perimeter deep channel just inside the bank, and a shallow area in the center where vegetation grows. Rice-shrimp farming in Thuan Hoa commune, Vietnam Participating farmers constructed a shrimp nursery in the pond s perimeter channel using netting and stakes. They released PL into the nursery following disease testing and approval, and fed with shrimp starter commercial feed for three weeks before being released into the larger pond. The resulting boost in the early stages of their life cycle increases the robustness of the shrimp to more extreme temperatures and other stresses, including increased salinity levels. In addition, the Commune Agricultural Extension Officer was trained in water quality monitoring, and helped farmers to measure their pond water for salinity, oxygen, and temperature on a weekly basis. Despite an El Niño-induced heat wave that caused mass fatality of shrimp during April-May 2015, pilot farmers still approved of the nursery model. By the end of 2015, Seventy-five percent of pilot farmers reported increased PL survival rates relative to previous years. Furthermore, participants appreciated the minimal construction cost of the nurseries, which used locally available materials and low labor input, making this an adaptation option very much within the means of the average delta farmer. 3. ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT, WEATHER MONITORING AND DISASTER PREPAREDNESS As rural communities of the LMB are heavily dependent on their surrounding natural systems, many communities prioritize measures to adapt to how those ecosystems are shifting due to climate change. The health of the surrounding ecosystem is directly and indirectly tied to the health of the community and its capacity for adaptation. This is extremely important for water-related issues, as watershed protection (and rehabilitation if the watershed becomes degraded) is paramount to preserving reliable and clean water sources for the future. Maintaining ecosystem services through activities like soil- FINAL REPORT 59

68 erosion prevention or reforestation of mangroves to protect against storm surges are critical to the lives and livelihoods of communities in the LMB. Most ecosystem-based adaptation measures incorporate best practices for natural resource management, including forest rehabilitation and restoration, watershed planning, and flood risk management. Activities also include weather monitoring, interpreting weather forecasts, and integrating weather data into adaptation planning processes to, for example, shift planting calendars to fit shifting temperature and rainfall patterns. The following Natural Resources Management adaptation strategies were carried out across the USAID Mekong ARCC project sites. Forest Rehabilitation & Protection In Kok Klang village in Sakon Nakhon, Thailand the community planted about 5,000 trees in the 16-hectare Non Sao Ae community forest, as part of a larger community adaptation effort. The Non Sao Ae and other forests provide nearby communities with many valuable products and services, and therefore require careful management in the face of anticipated climate change impacts. Community members produce and sell primarily rubber, cassava, rice, livestock and non-timber forest products collected from the community forest areas and nearby Phu Pha Yon National Park. The community relies on surrounding forests for a number of products for their daily needs. While all community members gather food, fuelwood and medicinal plants from these areas for household use, collecting and harvesting products to sell or cutting trees and bamboo for construction requires the permission of the village forest committee. Women are the primary gatherers of forest products, and depend on the forests to supply ingredients for one to two household meals every day. However, recent changes in local rainfall patterns and higher temperatures now increase risk of crop failures and impacts of animal production, and are altering ecosystems that threaten economically and culturally important plants and animals. By coming together to strengthen forest management and governance, reforest degraded areas and improve forest protection, the Kok Klang community has taken significant steps toward ensuring their forests continue to supply valuable products and ecosystem services in a changing climate. Mangrove Awareness Raising and Planting Mangrove planting is an important adaptation strategy for local communities to protect themselves from rising sea levels and flooding, which are projected to worsen in the years ahead. A mangrove expert from Can Tho University, and a rural development specialist from the Vietnam Red Cross trained 55 coastal villagers from Xeo Quao and 10 Bien villages in land preparation, seed collection and planting techniques. This training built upon earlier workshops where the villagers learned about the importance of mangroves for climate change adaptation and sustainable aquaculture. Most villagers knew only how to plant mangroves using propagule seeds. Now they know how to plant using seedlings, which can be collected more easily from surrounding mangrove forest under the mother trees, thanks to the training and guidance from a local mangrove expert. Villagers were enthusiastic about applying their knowledge, and planned to plant supplementary mangroves around their houses to protect their homes and land from future sea level rise and more frequent flooding. 60 FINAL REPORT

69 With project support Thuan Hoa Commune villagers planted mangroves along an eroded canal in Kien Giang Province, Mekong Delta of Vietnam. Watershed Protection and Maintenance As detailed above adaptation initiatives in Lao PDR focused on small scale water infrastructure. While the construction design gave the technical details for water provision to the communities, it was equally important to consider how to establish responsible water management committees (WMCs) in each village to ensure proper maintenance of the system and provide additional protective benefits to the watershed. The villages, already located within a unique micro ecosystem in Phoun Hin Boun National Park, rely on the Nam Theun watershed to sustain their livelihoods. Before construction, as was the case with all project interventions in the field, the project submitted Environmental Documentation Forms to USAID which ensured not only that the implementation would have minimal environmental impacts but also that the system itself, after the project leaves, will be supported by the community. The responsible WMCs were designed to both minimize potential negative environmental impacts and improve management of the watershed in which the communities rely for water for their daily use. The WMCs were charged with regular maintenance/inspections of the water system and to organize villagers to monitor water use and maintain the catchment area around their primary water sources. Through village meetings, each community elected responsible members and decided and agreed on rules and regulations for the new systems. The rules stipulated a protective area three kilometers from the intake which prohibited deforestation, slash and burn agriculture and burning of the land. A fine of 1.5 million kip (~US$200) will be given if a person does not adhere to these watershed management rules. For these rural villagers in Lao PDR, over 300 who constructed the water system through their own labor, protecting the forest is vital to their life and livelihoods. There is a strong understanding in the FINAL REPORT 61

70 communities that forest protection and a healthy watershed can provide them with reliable water all year-round something they have not had the luxury to have for generations. Flood Management Irrigation schemes such as dams, canals and dykes, are adaptation strategies that can offer co-benefits of agricultural water management and flood management. As detailed in the Small Scale Water Infrastructure section above, in two villages in Kampong Thom, Cambodia the project helped construct two dykes to protect rice paddy fields during the wet season and store water for agricultural production during the dry season. The dykes serve to regulate irrigation water flows for the rice paddy and allow for proper soil moisture during growing season. In the face of increasing intensity of storms, the dykes also enable farmers to contain and divert water during heavy downpours that can flood rice paddy fields and destroy the crops. Weather Monitoring and Disaster Preparedness Weather data and graphs from Sakon Nakhon, Thailand are now available as part of a local USAID Mekong ARCC adaptation initiative. An expert from the Sakon Nakhon Provincial Agriculture and Cooperatives Office expressed interest in using weather graphs and crop data (e.g. critical months for rice growth in terms of water availability) to improve local selection of robust crops and rice varieties. Similarly, in Chang Rai Province, the project worked with the Huai Kang Pla community to install a weather station. With the local climate witness team as the lead, the information on rain events is regularly shared with villagers and is being used for decisions related to agricultural activities, such as the timing for spraying herbicides, and planting/harvesting calendars for NTFPs and other forest products. Weather station in Chiang Rai, Thailand In Kien Giang province the Commune proposed that the villages should be equipped with loudspeaker systems to update and broadcast information related to extreme weather events. The provincial department of communication approved the loudspeaker system, and the commune registered a frequency in with the Directorate of Information in Can Tho. The commune also agreed that staff communication officers in Thuan Hoa Commune should produce news on local agricultural activities and then broadcast through the loudspeakers. Table 4 below summarizes the primary adaptation strategies implemented in all sites for livelihood and resource resilience and the principal threats the strategy addresses. 62 FINAL REPORT

71 Table 4: Summary of Community Adaptation Strategies Country Livelihood/Resource Principal Threats Adaptation Strategy Vietnam. Thailand Livestock/Animal Husbandry Increasing temperature impacting livestock productivity and health Introduce more heat resistant breeds of pigs and chickens (i.e. black pigs and blackboned chickens) Introduce production techniques such as bio-mattresses for pigs that improve productivity, provide nutrient rich mulch and reduce pollution Vietnam, Lao PDR Aquaculture/Fisheries Increasing temperatures and changes in water quality impacting fisheries productivity Introduce better shrimp production techniques in rice-shrimp systems Diversification of livelihoods through frog and fish ponds Vietnam, Thailand, Lao PDR Agriculture Temperatures and changing water availability (particularly drought) impacting crop productivity Test more drought and heat resilient varieties of rice and fruits Diversify cropping pattern such as beans/maize, and intercrop rice/vegetables with rubber and coconuts Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam Water quantities and quality for household use and livelihoods Changing rainfall patterns and increasing duration and severity of dry seasons Improve local knowledge of weather patterns and water resources Improve water security through increased storage and source protection Negotiate/arbitrate between diverse water demands Thailand, Lao PDR and Vietnam Forest protection and land management Increase in forest fires and loss of species; Increased erosion during intense rainstorms Create firebreaks to protect forests Reforest degraded forestlands and mangroves Improve land management and cultivation practices to reduce erosion E. SUMMARY OF RESULTS Beyond the site-specific impacts and activity outcomes all captured in our PMP an important knowledge product produced out of this Community Adaptation in Action element of the program is the USAID Mekong ARCC Resilience Framework to measure impacts across diverse sites. The framework allows context-specific local indicators to be rolled up into three primary resilience measures: 1) Improved Management of Assets, 2) Reduced Vulnerability and 3) Increased Adaptation Capacity. While the framework and results are further detailed in Section VI, the following section details how USAID Mekong ARCC defined resiliency to measure community adaptation. 1. IMPROVED MANAGEMENT OF ASSETS Resources that provide a foundation for taking adaptation actions whether social, financial, physical, natural or technical can be thought of as assets for adaptation. Assets-based indicators reflect the stock of available adaptation resources. The USAID Mekong ARCC project considers Improved Management of Assets to consist of the following indicator areas: FINAL REPORT 63

72 1. Assets inventoried e.g. number of fish/chickens/pigs, new pig pen management and system undertaken. 2. Enabling conditions in place e.g. trainings, management committees, community regulations, water management plans. 3. Systems and guidance created e.g. guidelines implemented, climate friendly structures built. 2. REDUCED VULNERABILITY/GOOD DEVELOPMENT To analyze how activities result in actual reduction of vulnerabilities at the site level, the USAID Mekong ARCC team uses Good Development as an overarching resilience measure. Good Development reinforces activities that improve people s access to assets and wellbeing, both crucial elements for enabling communities and households to adapt. For this reason, development indicators can be used as proxies that contribute to overall adaptive capacity. Vulnerability reductions are commonly depicted using outcome indicators. Based on community vulnerabilities and activities identified under this project, below are indicator areas for reduced vulnerability: 1) Wellbeing: a. Economic wellbeing (e.g. pigs sale, weight of livestock). While economic wellbeing is closely linked to improved management of assets, it is also related to cash flow and the ability to manage financial resources. b. Health (e.g. availability of drinking water, reduced waste). 2) Social strengthening (e.g. pigs/breeding shared, sharing of knowledge and lessons among communities, organization of cooperatives). 3. ADAPTATION CAPACITY There are several frameworks and interpretations of capacity to adapt, but the key common components of these frameworks are knowledge and information and the ability to respond to evolving circumstances in a changing climate. 1) Knowledge of climate risks: a. Appropriate systems for collecting, analyzing and disseminating climate information. b. General awareness raising on climate change. c. Understanding how to use knowledge of climate risks to adapt. 2) Knowledge of what to do: a. Knowledge of adaptation options that communities and households can take. 3) Ability to adapt: a. Active steps taken to apply climate change adaptation knowledge e.g. building more heat resistant pig pens, improving aquaculture so that it is less temperature sensitive, better water management, collection and supply. b. Ability to monitor, learn and adjust; e.g. lessons learned generated and used for improving actions, leaders taking steps to learn and adjust. c. Status of social and logistical adaptation barriers: Many other barriers can impede the implementation of intended adaptation such as regulations, logistics and economic markets. There is a need to identify such barriers and track if collective action has been mobilized to address or even remove these barriers. 64 FINAL REPORT

73 The USAID Mekong ARCC Resilience Framework was developed to roll up multiple site-level impacts and outcomes into an overarching measure that can illustrate the success (or failure) of adaptation strategies that contribute toward the goal of building resilient communities. Improved Management of Assets Assets inventoried Enabling conditions in place Systems and guidance created Reduced Vulnerability/ Good Development Economic wellbeing Health wellbeing Social strengthening Adaptation Capacity Knowledge of climate risks Knowledge of what to do Ability to adapt Figure 26: USAID Mekong ARCC Resilience Framework Monk blessing at the Kok Klang Village s community forest ceremony, Sakon Nakhon, Thailand Table 5: Improved Management of Assets: Illustrative Results Locations Chiang Rai Sakon Nakhon Kampong Thom Khammouan Kien Giang Results o Water filtration management: Three operation and maintenance teams of Haui Ya No, Pa Bong Ngam Bo and Hae Ko villages established to manage the water filtration systems. o Forest management: A community forest management committee established for Ban Kok Klang with a community plan to register 106 ha of forest as community forests with the Royal Forest Department officially entitling the village to manage it in the future. o Water management: Community water committees established to manage community constructed dykes and canal. o Water management: Three village water management committees of Ban Donekeo, Ban Xong and Ban Yang established. Rules and regulations in place to manage and maintain the village water systems. Includes provisions on conserving 550 ha of forests in the water catchment areas to preserve water for the villages. o CCA-integrated commune socio-economic development: After AMDI trained local government officials on integration of CCA to the Thuan Hoa Commune Social and Economic Development Plan (SEDP), the commune chairman requested a draft SEDP with CCA for 2017 planning. FINAL REPORT 65

74 Table 6: Reduced Vulnerability / Good Development: Illustrative Results Locations Chiang Rai Sakon Nakhon Kien Giang Kampong Thom Khammouan Results o Diversification of subsistence and income sources: o Black pig raising: 66 HHs successfully raised black pigs (97% annual survival rate). Of these, 46 HHs sold the pigs at US$224 per pig on average. The average price per kg is US$3.4-40% higher white pig market price. 4 HHs sold pit manure for compost production worth US$63 per HH. Some HHs used the manure for gardening. o Integrated agriculture: 93 HHs of 5 villages planted seedlings of robust crops (fruit trees, Assam tea, pepper, bamboos, and edible rattan) in their gardens/orchards. Of these 46 monitored HHs showed 80% survival rate despite severe droughts from El Nino event. o Health and wellbeing: Approx. 900 villagers of Huai Ya No, Pa Bong Ngam Bon and Hae Ko villages benefit from clean water for HH use from water filtration systems. o Diversification of subsistence and income sources: o Native rice: 15 HHs successfully planted native rice varieties with 5.5 tons of annual yields (2.2 ha). o Layer chicken: 12 HHs successfully raise layer chicken (91% annual survival rate). On average, each HH collects 8 eggs a day, potential of 28,860 eggs a year which are a protein source and supplementary income source. o Pig husbandry in mulch pits: 13 HHs were given black piglets. From early 2015 to March 2016, 100% of the pigs survived. 12 HHs produced 20.5 tons of pit manure for composting. o Social strengthening o Water was the most concerned issue for the villagers. o We have developed water sources, improved the management system and set up the water management fund. For the first time, we have water to use in the dry season! o Water is crucial for us. [The project] has finally solved the problem we had had for a long time. o Improved shrimp size, income and survival rate: 33 HHs participated in the riceshrimp with nursery model. 58% of 31 surveyed project farmers reported an increase in income from using the model. 74% reported the increase in their post larvae survival rate. 84% will continue the new model. o Diversification of subsistence and income sources: o 72 fish ponds and 136 compost pits constructed through the Food for Assets (FFA) scheme. o Villagers reported that home gardens served as food and supplementary income sources. o Improved water management for agriculture: o 2 dykes and 1 canal constructed through FFA scheme o 6 Solar Power Stations installed, 125 Batteries, 125 Motor Pumps, 120 watering systems, 5 foot pumps, 6 ponds, 57 wells are supported under CCA in water sources management by end of June o Satisfaction of Water o On a scale of 1-4 (n=39), villagers reported an increased satisfaction of water cleanliness from 1.8 to 3.4 and clarity from 2.0 to FINAL REPORT

75 Table 7: Increased Adaptation Capacity: Illustrative Results Locations Sakon Nakhon Kien Giang Kampong Thom Results o At least 43 HHs took action steps to apply CCA knowledge. o A CCA community monitoring team was set up to monitor and adjust actions. o One weather station installed at Kok Klang School with two teachers trained on how to collect weather information and plan to disseminate information through children to parents. o 43 HHs took action steps to apply CCA knowledge. o As a part of the improved rice-shrimp system, local officials and shrimp farmers were trained on how to monitor water quality including salinity level. o A commune loud speaker system was installed to disseminate climate impact information and disaster warnings. o 55 farmers of Xeo Quao and 10 Bien villages have increased knowledge in mangrove benefits and practiced planting. o 564 villagers took action steps to apply CCA knowledge. o 420 villagers received continued climate change awareness training F. LESSONS LEARNED USAID Mekong ARCC s field-testing of integrative adaptation activities across five at-risk sites in the LMB revealed a number of important lessons for future programming. Practical adaptation is incremental, given the socioeconomic context of community leaders and the timeframes around how climate impacts unfold on the ground. For example, a 20 year precipitation projection is always secondary in a farmer s mind to what her experience has been the past three years. Climate science projections provide a baseline and directionality of impacts, but local adaptation happens incrementally and in response to changes in experiences on the ground. Small alterations to existing systems are more likely to be replicated as they generally involve less risk and are therefore more attractive to neighboring farmers and/or other communities. Larger scale infrastructure projects, for example, involve more substantial technical and financial assistance from outside sources (government agencies or international aid organizations), and thus may not gain full buy in from local communities. Community adaptation options must show an economic gain. This could take the shape of lower input costs into production systems and/or higher market value of products. Farmers incur financial costs when switching from one variety of crop or livestock to a new variety. Low return on investment when taking up a new agriculture practice due to low market prices for an agriculture product may be a barrier to adopting livelihood diversification. Therefore, activities must make financial sense to farmers. Co-benefits related to increased food security and nutrition are also important. For example, pilot farmers participating in chicken and small-scale aquaculture projects gained an additional and steady protein source through eggs, meat, frogs, and fish. Home gardens were also quite successful in some communities, enhancing the nutrition of diets at the household level. Training and capacity building are critical for enhancing community knowledge and adaptive behaviors. Farmer field schools and other educational platforms allow for continued adaptation FINAL REPORT 67

76 following project closeout. Involving model farmers and influential community members to help facilitate on-going training and dissemination of knowledge post-project enhances longer-term sustainability. Project cycle is a key factor influencing success. In the case of USAID Mekong ARCC, the adaptation implementation component of the project occurred in large part during the 2015 El Niño event, which resulted in drought and extreme heat across the region. Because most of the activities lasted for roughly one year, some of the projects failed due to the extreme weather scenario. A more suitable timeframe for many of the projects would be three years. This would also allow for continued monitoring and supervision of many of the shorter-term projects that would be good to follow-up on in order to enhance their sustainability. There are many other important co-benefits from the adaptation activities that were implemented in the target villages. For example, the sustainable land use practices applied in many of the pilot sites reduce reliance on monoculture systems and the associated impacts to soil fertility and agrobiodiversity. Examples of these sustainable practices include: the introduction of native rice species, the system of rice intensification, and the creation of organic pig pits that generate compost to fertilize fields. 68 FINAL REPORT

77 SECTION IV: SCALING UP RURAL ADAPTATION As discussed in Section II, the first two years of the USAID Mekong ARCC project were spent analyzing scientific projections to understand what to adapt to in the LMB hotspots. The second two years were wholly focused on working at project sites to determine how to adapt to projected climate impacts. In the final year, beyond consolidating local adaptation gains and capturing best practices, the project team spent considerable time testing how its strategies and the evidence base generated by results on the ground can be scaled in order to contribute more broadly to rural adaptation efforts regionally and globally. The scaling strategy honed in on working directly through existing government frameworks/processes, with the idea that well-informed local and national government adaptation programming will set the stage for those governments to build lessons and techniques into their larger programs and, perhaps, access climate financing mechanisms down the road. This strategy proved successful in some cases, but also required significant time, resources, patience, and some fortuitous alignment between program activities and the near term objectives owned by national government officials. During year 5, USAID Mekong ARCC s scaling strategy became clearer as the team sought to make a lasting impact that would amount to more than site-level gains. In doing so, the program s scaling work was encapsulated through four primary strategies: ground-up pathways, knowledge products, financing pathways, thematic scaling. A. GROUND-UP PATHWAYS Scaling from the ground level is a key objective of most development programming. How to achieve scale beyond local successes being replicated in neighboring municipalities, for example, can be a challenge. USAID Mekong ARCC s local scaling strategy worked through two specific avenues, national government frameworks (in Vietnam) and through participatory process (in Cambodia). The project team viewed ground-up scaling local stakeholders influencing national government planning as the predecessor to broader scaling via climate financing. 1. SCALING THROUGH NATIONAL FRAMEWORKS IN VIETNAM The linkage of successful models and lessons learned from rural climate change pilots to broader national climate strategies is a means for small-scale adaptation initiatives to generate significant impact across large landscapes. USAID Mekong ARCC and implementing partner NGOs Asian Management and Development Institute (AMDI) and Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) demonstrated this by working with the Vietnam national government to scale approaches on climate sensitive rice-shrimp techniques from a trial area of 54 ha in single coastal farming commune in Kien Giang Province to similar landscapes across five delta provinces. Through alignment with national policy in Vietnam, the evidence generated through a local, farmerfocused pilot has the potential to influence upwards of 250,000 ha of rice-shrimp farms that the FINAL REPORT 69

78 government plans to put into production by 2030, benefitting an estimated one million people who will rely on this system for their income. Rice-shrimp rotational farming the practice of shifting a farmed pond back and forth from rice to shrimp production based on seasonal characteristics is the primary livelihood in the Thuan Hoa commune of Vietnam, as it is in many coastal communities in delta provinces. Climate change is threatening this livelihood through higher temperatures, irregular rainfall, and increased salinity levels caused by sea level rise. In the USAID Mekong ARCC program implemented pilot rice-shrimp farming adaptation strategies within Thuan Hoa through such means as constructing shrimp pond nurseries, sourcing disease-free shrimp post-larvae, and planting salt-tolerant rice and sedge grass species (detailed in Section IV). The project exposed the Vietnam D-FISH to these initiatives at just the right time the national government was in the midst of a review of policies and practices to increase efficiency and resilience of rice-shrimp systems to climate change across the Mekong Delta. Through the project s partnership with D-FISH, successes and lessons learned from the pilot initiatives have served as building blocks to larger governmental policies and planning that reinforce climate sensitive management of rice-shrimp systems spanning the Mekong Delta provinces of Kien Giang, Ca Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, and Tra Vinh. (See Figure 27) Figure 27: Map of the Vietnam Mekong Delta Provinces 70 FINAL REPORT

79 2. SCALING PARTICIPATORY DECISION MAKING IN CAMBODIA Building on the achievements, experience and progress made under USAID Mekong ARCC in Chey commune, Kampong Thom in 2015, WFP Cambodia decided to institutionalize the community-based climate change adaptation and resilience planning approach the USAID Mekong ARCC proof of concept across its program portfolio, while simultaneously supporting the government strategy for decentralization and participatory planning in decision making. During implementation of the community decision making process (detailed in Section III) at the Chey commune site, it became apparent that significant gaps existed in the participation of village members in the commune investment prioritization and planning process. While current government guidelines from the National Committee for Sub National Democratic Development (NCDD) mandate a minimum level of community consultation during the formulation of the Commune Development Plan (CDP) and Commune Investment Programme (CIP), commune and village leaders do not usually engage the wider community. As part of the efforts to bring the lessons learned during project implementation to scale, USAID Mekong ARCC supported WFP, NCDD, subnational authorities and relevant local stakeholders to establish simple support tools based on the participatory planning process for climate change adaptation that mainstream community consultations into the investment planning process. The tools serve not only as a support guide for subnational leaders, but are used by WFP in their program implementation. With a current WFP target area for livelihood-support activities of nine provinces in Cambodia, the potential for employing the tools at scale are significant. With USAID Mekong ARCC support, WFP has already piloted the tools in three provinces, reaching hundreds of subnational officials, commune leaders and villagers. Based on these pilot experiences, WFP and NCDD will finalize the tools and use their own resources for full national roll out by the end of Through the request of NCDD, the Ministry of Interior (under which CDP falls) has expressed its intent to include climate change as an additional thematic area all communes must consider in their planning process. Gaining such government buy-in to a replicable and scalable framework for improved investment planning, contributes to sustainable climate change adaptation mainstreaming in the government planning process. While scaling through a process change is complicated and involves buy-in from multiple stakeholders, the time invested can be valuable if that process change is translated into an easy-to-transfer set of tools. Having support from a leading government institution, such as NCDD, is also key to enabling a process change to occur across a large scale. WFP s Cambodia tools represent a tangible method of turning participatory adaptation planning into a packaged tool that is relevant within the context of the existing CDP and CIP planning framework. B. KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS Many projects document knowledge products framed in the context of their experience. While USAID Mekong ARCC captured such context, the team focused on creating knowledge products that could be used by other program designers and practitioners, and then disseminating these via a range of regional and global knowledge platforms on climate change. The strategies and lessons learned under USAID Mekong ARCC can only be taken to scale if packaged in an easily replicable fashion. FINAL REPORT 71

80 It takes creativity at times to uncouple a how to guide from its context, but it was time invested in making the proof of concept replicable and scalable. A good example is the USAID Mekong ARCC Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework, which offers a holistic stepby-step guide and tools for connecting sound climate science projections to community decision-making. While local context is woven in to express the various concepts, the document itself is laid out in a fashion that makes it easy for program designers/implementers to replicate in the future. Table 8 below captures an overview of USAID Mekong ARCC s knowledge products, all packaged in a way that make the lessons and models easily transferrable to future adaptation program designs. Table 8: USAID Mekong ARCC s Knowledge Products by Program Phase USAID Mekong ARCC s Knowledge Products 3 by Program Phase Understanding Ecosystem-Livelihood Vulnerability in the LMB USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong Key Final Results USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong: Synthesis Report Headlines: USAID Mekong ARCC Climate Study for the Lower Mekong LMB Sectoral Vulnerability Reports: - Agriculture Sector Vulnerability Report - Fisheries Sector Vulnerability Report - Livestock Sector Vulnerability Report - NTFP (Non-Timber Forest Products) & CWR (Crop Wild Relatives) Sector Vulnerability Report - Protected Areas Vulnerability Report - Socio-Economics Sector Vulnerability Report Country-Level Climate Change Vulnerability Profiles: - Cambodia Climate Change Vulnerability Profile - Lao PDR Climate Change Vulnerability Profile - Thailand Climate Change Vulnerability Profile - Vietnam Climate Change Vulnerability Profile Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: An Analysis of Economic Values at Risk Overview: Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: An analysis of Economic Values at Risk Valuing Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong Basin: A Synthesis Report Valuing Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong River Basin: Country Reports - Country Report for Cambodia - Country Report for Laos PRD - Country Report for Thailand - Country Report for Vietnam Gap Analysis on Rice-Shrimp Aquaculture Systems in the Vietnam Mekong Delta Water Supply Feasibility Assessment in Khammouan, Lao PDR Water Supply Assessment in Kok Klang Village, Thailand Poster: It s Going to Get Hotter: climate change temperature impacts on the Lower Mekong Basin by 2050 Poster: It s Going to Get Wetter: climate change rainfall impacts on the Lower Mekong Basin by 2050 Linking Science & Local Knowledge Climate Risks for Rural Livelihoods: Agriculture and Water Management in the Lower Mekong Basin Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework Planning and Implementing Rural Adaptation Initiatives in the Lower Mekong: Methods Applied to Integrate Climate Science and Local Knowledge Lessons from Implementing Adaptation Plans in the Lower Mekong Basin 3 Download at or 72 FINAL REPORT

81 USAID Mekong ARCC s Knowledge Products 3 by Program Phase Adaptation planning in the Lower Mekong Basin: merging scientific data with local perspective to improve community resilience to climate change (to be published in Climate and Development) Merging science- and community-led adaptation planning processes in the Lower Mekong Basin (to be published in Climatic Change) Watershed-scale Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments (W-VAA): Regional Guidelines for Climate Change Adaptation Practitioners Lessons on Integrating Scientific and Community Knowledge of Climate Change to Develop Adaptation Plans in the Lower Mekong Basin Fact Sheet: Assessing Threats to the Lower Mekong Livelihoods, Communities and Ecosystems Poster: Linking Science and Local Knowledge to Adaptation Action (Thai language) Fact Sheet: Turning Science into Action: Applying Climate Change Projections to Decision Making Community Adaptation in Action Adaptation of Rice-Shrimp Farming in the Mekong Delta: How community adaptation solutions can inform landscape level change Fact Sheet: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options in North and Northeastern Thailand Integrating Gender Considerations into Community-based Adaptation in Agrarian Communities in the Lower Mekong Basin Fact Sheet: Chiang Rai and Sakon Nakhon (Thai language) Scaling Up Rural Adaptation USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change: Approach to Scaling and Partnerships Harnessing Climate Finance for Rural Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin: Opportunities, Constraints and Future Prospects: Key Findings Harnessing Climate Finance for Rural Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin: Opportunities, Constraints and Future Prospects Development of Rice-Shrimp Farming in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam Another knowledge product of note was developed through collaboration of the GMS Adaptation Roundtable that was established by the Asian Development Bank s regional Bangkok office. The Roundtable stimulates collaboration, documents lessons learned, and provides thought leadership on climate change adaptation and a community of practice. Partners in the Roundtable include the ADB- GMS Core Environment Program s Environment Operations Center; IGES; ISET; IUCN; SEI; UNEP; and USAID Mekong ARCC, USAID Adapt Asia-Pacific, and USFS. In the final year of the project, USAID Mekong ARCC was part of a core group of organizations driving the production of regional guidelines on a watershed level vulnerability and adaptation assessment (W- VAA). These guidelines synthesize the shared knowledge and experience of the Roundtable partners in developing frameworks for and implementing VAAs in the GMS over the past decade. Specifically, the guidelines focus on providing a flexible framework for future W-VAA that is based on the direct experience of recent projects that used a watershed as an organizing principle for VAA. C. FINANCING PATHWAYS While global climate adaptation financing is still in the early days, the USAID Mekong ARCC project worked to begin filling the gap between proven on-the-ground adaptation strategies and adaptation financing mechanisms. Large funds, like the Green Climate Fund (GCF), look for scale in the adaptation program designs that seek financing. National governments need scale for adaptation programming out of necessity, given they lack the resources to design and implement highly customized adaptation programming across their territory. FINAL REPORT 73

82 Since scaling adaptation strategies is in the interest of countries and the GCF, what are the existing barriers to achieving that scale? This is the question USAID Mekong ARCC set out to understand and report through the paper titled Harnessing Climate Finance for Rural Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin: Opportunities, Constraints and Future Prospects. The USAID Mekong ARCC climate financing workshop held in July 2016 brought together government officials from across the LMB, development practitioners, bilateral and multilateral donors, and development partners to address the path forward for scaling rural adaptation through climate finance. The key findings from the paper and highlights from the financing workshop are presented below. 1. SUMMARY OF FINANCING RESEARCH PAPER Scaling rural adaptation initiatives and demonstrating their value as related to large-scale infrastructure projects will require focus and determination at the national level. As the architects at the center of international financing (top-down) and local project development (bottom-up), national governments will play a crucial enabling role. Policy and strategy put in place over the next couple of years will set national trajectories for how much and where adaptation financing will flow. With this in mind, national-level policy makers must keep up with the evolving global climate financing marketplace and develop pipelines of robustly designed local adaptation projects. The Harnessing Climate Finance paper provides an overview of how the international climate funds work today, and covers common barriers faced when trying to access those funds. It also includes recommendations for national government actors on both policy and implementation some of which were learned by the USAID Mekong ARCC project to unlock rural adaptation financing. Adaptation Funding Streams Funding streams for climate adaptation programming are currently met through a mix of international sources such as donor and climate funding mechanisms and national government budgetary spending. International Sources. Donor countries support adaptation efforts through three main mechanisms: 1) their own development finance institutions such as USAID, and the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID); 2) contributions to multilateral development institutions such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and United Nations (UN) agencies; and 3) contributions to multilateral climate funds. Multilateral Development Organizations. In the LMB, this group includes two multilateral development banks (MDBs) (the ADB and World Bank Group) and several UN-affiliated agencies that finance climate change adaptation activities (the International Fund for Agriculture Development [IFAD], United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], United Nations Environment Programme [UNEP] and United Nations Capital Development Fund [UNCDF]). Approximately 23 percent of the US$2.8 billion in climate financing invested by MDBs in East Asia in 2014 focused on adaptation. Multilateral Climate Funds. The world community has established five Multilateral Climate Funds that fund adaptation activities. In the LMB, Cambodia has been the most successful in accessing these sources. To date, Cambodia has mobilized about US$166 million in adaptation financing followed by Lao PDR (US$25 million), Vietnam (US$21 million), and Thailand (US$1 million). Each Fund is designed to provide financing for new or add-on activities that address climate change risks. Each has specific characteristics summarized in Table FINAL REPORT

83 Fund Green Climate Fund (GCF) Table 9: Multilateral Climate Fund Characteristics Eligible LMB Countries All No. Projects Funded - LMB Readiness only Limitations Only indirect access currently available to LMB countries. Adaptation Fund (AF) All 1 (Cambodia) Only indirect access currently available to LMB countries. Least Developed Country Fund (LDCF) Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) Cambodia and Lao PDR 6 Proposal must be prepared and submitted by GEF partner. Only co-funds the adaptation elements of a project All 4 Proposal must be prepared and submitted by GEF partner. Only co-funds the adaptation elements of a project Cambodia 9 (Cambodia) Only indirect access currently available to LMB countries Source: (accessed 17 May 2016) and individual fund websites Bilateral Donors. Bilateral donors provide grants to finance projects supporting climate change adaptation that they have developed in consultation with developing country government agencies. Bilateral donors channel climate change-related funding through their development agencies (such as USAID, and DFID), which use the funding to finance technical support projects such as the USAID Mekong ARCC and as capital contributions to one or more international climate funds and/or through their own climate initiatives. National Sources. Each country has formed an interagency climate change coordination/leadership group whose membership includes ministries that oversee national planning, agriculture production and research, forest and coastal management, transportation, disaster management, and more. These committees lead climate adaptation planning and priority setting and play key roles in budget programming and activity implementation. Barriers to Accessing Climate Funding for Rural Adaptation Lack of Accreditation. As of mid-2016, no national organization within the LMB was accredited by any of the climate funds. This lack of accreditation can put countries in the position of being dependent on external proponents rather than setting, leading, and pursuing their own adaptation priorities. Unintended Bias toward Infrastructure. While not explicitly exclusionary, the multilateral climate funds are not structured to review and approve a multitude of small, community adaptation projects. While many of these infrastructure investments address structural climate risks, they tend to overlook the softer side of the adaptation equation such as building capacity in climate smart agriculture, actions to improve water and forest management, and improving broad access to weather and climate data. Unfortunately, quantifying these benefits and demonstrating scale can be complex, thereby influencing the immediate prospects of financing for many rural adaptation projects. Translating Policies into Budgets and Actions. Since adaptation is not itself a sector, lining up policies and budgeting from the national down to the local levels often requires integrating adaptation efforts across the health, agriculture, fisheries, water resource, and environment sectors. Across the FINAL REPORT 75

84 MDB region, each country is taking different approaches to address this challenge. In Cambodia and Lao PDR, the governments have established national coordination committees to manage climate change actions across multiple ministries. In Vietnam, the government is using a program approach to mainstreaming climate change into provincial development planning and budgets. In Thailand, the national government has created a unit within the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning, the Climate Change Management and Coordination Division, to lead coordination efforts and, with the help of GIZ, to support the integration of climate change adaptation into planning and priority setting into subnational government plans. While the trends are positive, these remain topdown driven processes. Challenges Scaling Up Rural Adaptation Actions. Numerous examples exist of rural adaptation approaches that work well in a specific community or cluster of communities but cannot be scaled up across a large region. As noted above, the multilateral climate funds want their investments to achieve a notable scale of impact. This means that rural adaptation projects must reach tens if not hundreds of communities to appeal to the Funds and proposing accredited entities. This demands a standardized design approach and, likely, a limited offering of what types of adaptation actions the project can finance. In the next section, we offer additional strategies to address this scaling challenge. Strategies to Unlock Rural Adaptation Financing The past five to seven years of adaptation finance has focused primarily on defining the rules of the game between global funding mechanisms and national governments. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) have started the march toward standardized documentation that clearly articulates national priorities and nests them within the objectives of international funds. While work remains, this top-down progress is evident. At the other end of the spectrum, it is still early days in terms of bottom-up connectivity between local and national government adaptation priorities. Transforming national conceptual frameworks and strategies into high-impact local programming for rural adaptation is no easy task. The experience through the USAID Mekong ARCC project suggests that this is a crucial next step toward unlocking rural climate adaptation finance and achieving significant gains in rural resilience. National governments can play an important intermediary leadership role between international funding stream actors and local actors (subnational governments, NGOs, and community organizations), setting standards and expectations, and insisting that implementing entities demonstrate how proposed projects will address rural adaptation needs and be scalable across large landscapes. Policy Framework for Adaptation Finance The evolution of national adaptation strategies and, now, National Adaptation Program (NAP) documents has been a learning experience, and one of the first attempts to rationalize local and international priorities of any kind on a global scale. The recent INDCs submitted by each LMB country provide the first concerted effort to outline near-term adaptation needs for the international climate financing community. While a country NAP or strategy provides the long-term adaptation vision, the INDCs provide the framework for an initial operational plan that provides a tangible connection between local adaptation needs and national priorities within the context of an international framework. As such, countries can 76 FINAL REPORT

85 use them as guiding documents for national adaptation policy frameworks that connect global and local priorities. The UNFCCC guidance for designing a robust INDC suggests building in a clear logical framework that includes Outcomes and corresponding Actions, with the latter divided into Policies and Projects. These organizing principles can serve as a roadmap for local actors (governments and NGOs) to follow in packaging adaptation projects. Further, the simpler a country s INDC logical framework, the easier it will be to align with funding streams. A clear outcomes-actions framework makes aggregating and packaging small projects into scaled approaches more feasible a key theme reiterated by the international climate funds (see box on the right). If national governments can use the INDC as a standard operational framework that connects local-national-international objectives, these can enable scalable programming that will facilitate the flow of financing for rural adaptation. Practical Measures and Lessons from the Field Between aligning adaptation priorities with international funds and establishing an enabling environment for local adaptation actors to access climate finance, national governments have their work cut out for them. Out of the experience gained through the USAID Mekong ARCC project, the following are practical measures to enhance the enabling environment for rural adaptation finance. Project Design Getting funded by GCF really depends on how the proponent packages the proposal. Proposing to do pilots and innovations will not fly because we have been doing that with other money. Proposals need to move beyond pilots and innovations to scaling up proven techniques and CBA is a proven technique. Advisor to GCF Readiness Support Program Hold Rural Adaptation Design Workshops. Identifying ready-made projects will be easier when local stakeholders understand the rules of the game. To demystify adaptation finance and encourage open collaboration, governments should coordinate with external accredited organizations to conduct local adaptation design workshops with local government officials, NGOs, and community groups. Package Adaptation Projects. The term packaging is a reoccurring theme in the access-to-climatefinance community. By packaging, we mean the presentation of a product in a particular fashion that makes it more attractive. A GCF Advisor stated directly that getting funded by GCF really depends on how the proponent packages the proposal. Often project designers are so focused on local priorities and objectives that they overlook the importance of aligning the project with national and even international adaptation objectives. With this in mind, national governments should consider adopting methods of making it easy for rural adaptation project designers. This means developing standard templates to share at rural adaptation design workshops. Efficiently packaged project designs will make life easier at the national and local levels, and enable the aggregation of smaller-scale projects into scaled up efforts that deliver significant impact. Consider Scale; It Cannot Be an Afterthought. The central challenge in rural adaptation financing is often scale. When analyzing value for money, metrics such as population or assets at risk often put rural adaptation initiatives at the back of the line. Similarly, the perceived management burden of FINAL REPORT 77

86 multiple small projects versus one large one can undermine the viability of rural climate change adaptation projects. To enable scalability, government officials should consider replicability of adaptation project designs from the outset. Multiple small projects with relatively standard designs could help the cost of technical support to communities. Project Financing Design a National Fund of Funds for Adaptation. A clear challenge facing most countries is the multitude of projects being developed and supported by bilateral and multilateral donors with differing objectives, financing modalities, conditions, and reporting systems. Bangladesh, with the assistance of several donors, addressed this issue by creating the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF). The BCCRF aggregates several international financing streams into a single fund. This strategy empowers the Government of Bangladesh to align funding with its national climate change strategy and action plan. The Government of Bangladesh sets overall direction and investment priorities while the World Bank provides technical support, and carries out financing and fiduciary functions to ensure projects are implemented with regard to economy, efficiency, and effectiveness. Set Rural Adaptation Funding Targets. Measuring impact and return on investment on adaptation programming can be complex. As traditional prioritization approaches can favor urban and infrastructure investments, national governments should consider establishing targets specific to rural climate change adaptation in their adaptation budgeting policies, similar to what the Government of Nepal implemented (see box below). A rural adaptation budget allocation could enhance the fairness factor in a country s climate policy, one element noted as critical to a strong INDC. In 2011, the Government of Nepal created Local Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA) and committed to providing at least 80 percent of total funds available for climate change activities flow to the local level. The LAPA intends to facilitate mainstreaming through the integration of climate change resilience into local-tonational development planning processes. (Fenton et al. 2014) Revisit National Classification of Adaptation Projects. As the definition of climate change adaptation has been fine-tuned, so too have the outlines of what can be considered an adaptation project. A key recommendation of the CPEIRs (Climate Public Expenditures & Institutional Review) involves ensuring that countries develop a clear classification of what constitutes climate change spending. The author of the Cambodia CPEIR goes on the say the classification should pay special attention to local infrastructures and economic development activities and provide clear distinction as to when these are related to climate change and when they are not. As government leaders revisit this classification system, it is highly likely that a revised taxonomy of adaptation projects will help drive additional financing both international and national to rural adaptation activities. 2. CLIMATE FINANCING WORKSHOP HIGHLIGHTS To present our climate financing report findings, and more importantly to engage national adaptation stakeholders, USAID Mekong ARCC held a Climate Financing workshop on July 6-7, FINAL REPORT

87 The workshop strategy included pairing development partners with government officials in breakout session to encourage documentations and follow through with ground covered during the two-day event. The breakout sessions covered these areas: Session 1: Policy Enabling Conditions All participants were divided into four groups by country (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam) to align USAID Mekong ARCC field tested rural adaptation initiatives (summarized below) with national adaptation policy planning goals and strategies, presented by the Government representatives. The results were reported back by each facilitator to the floor and continued working in the Country Breakout Session 2. A. Water Resources a. Small scale water infrastructure (gravity fed systems, dyke, canal) b. Water filtration c. Water meters d. Water management committees B. Integrated Farming and Diversified Livelihoods a. Climate resilient pig and chicken husbandry b. Improved/diversified crop/agriculture (native rice, SRI, vegetable gardens, rice/sedge) c. Composting d. Small/medium frog/fish ponds e. Improved rice-shrimp farming techniques f. Exchanges on climate smart techniques (study tours, farmer field schools) C. Weather & Climate and Natural Resources Management a. Community loudspeaker & weather monitoring stations b. Mangrove training and planting c. Forest management through planting and rehabilitation D. Participatory Community Decision Making for CCA Session 2: Scoping Exercise Breakout session two took the next step, encouraging attendees from each country to begin outlining program designs for adaptation programs in their respective countries. Facilitated by development partners, each country outlined a draft program design to report back in during Session 3. Session 3: Project Development Facilitated by Alex Smajgl of the Mekong Region Futures Institute, each country breakout group presented the broad outlines of their program designs to the group. The session included a piece called From Concept to Funding: Identification of Suitable International and National Financing Mechanisms during which representatives from development partners such as USAID, FAO, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the ADB responded to the preliminary designs and how they might move forward in terms of accessing adaptation finance. FINAL REPORT 79

88 Overall, the workshop went beyond sharing results and ideas, to actually putting pen to paper on adaptation program design and access to finance. This set the ball rolling for sustainability beyond the USAID Mekong ARCC program, with leaders in Cambodia moving ahead with a program outlined at the workshop (see box below). ADB Draws from USAID Mekong ARCC to Advance New Adaptation Program Financing Design in Cambodia Cambodia is currently developing a National Environmental Strategy and Action Plan (NESAP). ADB GMS Core Environment Program is supporting the government by drawing from USAID Mekong ARCC s evidence-based rural adaptation results to develop an investment concept on livelihoods and resilience as a part of NESAP project pipeline. Cross-ministerial discussion initiated at the Harnessing Climate Finance workshop brought key concepts to the forefront, most critically how to scale small and dispersed climate change adaptation interventions, and develop a sustainable financing and implementation mechanism the involves the private sector and develops a programmatic approach to adaptation action in country. Demand is high in Cambodia for adaptation program designs that can access funding. The fragmented field of adaptation strategies can be a challenge to roll up into a compelling design. The ADB seized the opportunity at the workshop to package USAID Mekong ARCC concepts on rural adaptation measures, and push them into a financing facility model that, once implemented, will be replicable and scalable across Cambodia. One well-received panel discussion at the workshop was titled Project Design: What are Common Elements Financiers Look for in Project Concepts? A few highlights of messages from this panel include: If you need a billion dollars, put together a billion dollar project. The funds are out there. Don t think small, think big. - Dr. Peter King, Team Leader, USAID Adapt Asia-Pacific We are now working in one sector, but remember you are part of a larger system. How is your work going to impact by others? What is the hook that you can use to garner interest of private foundations such as Rockefeller? Some institutions like to talk about log-frame in terms of theory of change. Budgets tell the story monitoring is essential. It cannot be a 2 percent line item in the budget. - Natalie Phaholyothin, Associate Director, Rockefeller Foundation If you don t speak the language of the private sector, you exclude the private sector. You need to start speaking their language. Public goods may not be the only language. We need triangulation with instruments, like microfinance, to consider how to add other elements that make this much more tempting/appealing to donors. - Alex Smajgl, Mekong Region Futures Institute Keep the project simple, but the implementation flexible. If the project is implemented too rigidly, that is a recipe for disaster. If it is implemented too flexibly, that is also a recipe for disaster. Let innovation flourish during implementation give a space to whoever is implementing the project to test those new ideas. - Yusuke Taishi, Regional Technical Specialist, Climate Change Adaptation, Communications and Knowledge Management, UNDP 80 FINAL REPORT

89 D. THEMATIC SCALING The idea of thematic scaling under USAID Mekong ARCC arose during efforts to translate the program s evidence base to stakeholders in the LMB. The team knew that sharing experiences is a valuable way to learn, however it relies on the audience to unpack the local context and carry the thematic strategies with them to apply in their own domain of expertise. With this in mind, the USAID Mekong ARCC team made the effort to go beyond site-level stories by decoupling climate threats and adaptation strategies from their local context and packaging them together in broad themes with relevance across the basin as a means of promoting evidence-based replication and scale. Thematic scaling was largely manifested through the project s knowledge products. The Climate Risks for Rural Livelihoods: Agriculture and Water Management in the Lower Mekong Basin produced by the project took this exact strategy by highlighting common risks faced (storms, droughts, etc.) with common adaptation strategies for livelihoods sectors present across the LMB (livestock, fisheries, etc.) and water resources management practices. The thematic axis of the analysis can easily be applied in adaptation program design efforts undertaken by LMB government officials and development partners. By reading the titles of the suite of USAID Mekong ARCC knowledge products (Table 8 above), the thematic packing strategy is clear analysis written to be applicable across the LMB will be relevant and useful beyond the life of this project. E. SUMMARY OF RESULTS The USAID Mekong ARCC project contribution toward scaling can be encapsulated through four primary elements of our work as discussed in detail above: ground-up pathways, knowledge products, financing pathways, thematic scaling. Ground-Up Pathways: USAID Mekong ARCC aimed at a starting point to scale through existing government frameworks/processes, with the idea that well-informed national government adaptation programming will set the stage for those governments to access the climate financing mechanisms down the road, a key gateway to achieving true scale in rural adaptation. Our method was to ensure national government actors were informed and provided with the chance to participate and learn from adaptation activities on the ground. It is easy to focus 100 percent of a program s time in to achieving on-the-ground success, so it took extra will to push to open up the important ground-up pathways. Plugging in to national government strategy can take some stars aligning in terms of timing, priorities, and relationship building. While it does not always work, the time invested is fundamental to achieving scale, as laid out above in the USAID Mekong ARCC work in Vietnam (rice-shrimp scaling) and Cambodia (process scaling). Knowledge Products: Many programs document knowledge products framed in the context of their experience. While USAID Mekong ARCC captured such context, our team focused on creating knowledge products that could be used by others working in the field of adaptation. Financing Pathways: While adaptation financing is still evolving, the USAID Mekong ARCC project sought to both simplify the description of the marketplace and identify practical lessons for LMB stakeholders in our paper titled Harnessing Climate Finance for Rural Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin: Opportunities, Constraints and Future Prospects. Key takeaways for accessing adaptation financing include the paramount importance of packaging program proposals as well as aligning national NAPs, INDCs, FINAL REPORT 81

90 and objectives of funding mechanisms. It may be a complicated next step for adaptation, but pairing development partners with national governments to enhance packaging and alignment will set the pace at which rural adaptation financing begins to flow. Thematic Scaling: Site-based successes and stories are important for learning, however the USAID Mekong ARCC team believed that separating climate threats and adaptation strategies from their local context is critical for evidence-based scaling. By working in five sites across the LMB, the project was able to identify and analyze common adaptation strategies that arose organically through the community work. By categorizing strategies in response to common threats, the team could present evidence-based knowledge products to inform design efforts undertaken by LMB governments or development partners. F. LESSONS LEARNED Scaling rural adaptation will have to be a key focus of the next generation of adaptation programming. While a groundswell of interest in accessing finance from global adaptation funds is mounting, the details of how to achieve scale a fundamental need of those funds across a disperse rural population is complicated. The key USAID Mekong ARCC lesson learned is an extremely logical, but tricky, strategy: packaging for scale. PACKAGING FOR SCALE Speaking the language of the funding entities in a clear fashion is critical to accessing adaptation finance. When analyzing value for money, metrics such as population or assets at risk often put rural adaptation initiatives at the back of the line. Similarly, the perceived management burden of multiple small projects versus one large one can undermine the viability of rural climate change adaptation projects. To enable scalability, government officials should consider replicability of adaptation project designs from the outset. Multiple small projects with relatively standard designs could help officials achieve the scale and impact needed to attract financing. Often project designers are so focused on local priorities and objectives that they overlook the importance of aligning the project with national and even international adaptation objectives. With this in mind, national governments should consider adopting methods of making it easy for rural adaptation project designers. This means developing standard templates to share at rural adaptation design workshops. Efficiently packaged project designs will make life easier at the national and local levels, and enable the aggregation of smaller-scale projects into scaled up efforts that deliver significant impact. We can learn from Cambodia, the LMB country that has had the most success in accessing GEF-Small Grants funds by adopting a standard design format (see box below). Cambodia owns the greatest number of projects funded by the GEF-Small Grants Program. Part of its success is due to the adoption of a standard design format, one that contains the core elements forming management committees, capacity building, rehabilitating/climate-proofing essential local infrastructure, and forming local savings groups to spur diversified livelihood opportunities. This application of a common design approach was also observed by other countries with a successful record of accessing climate finance for small-scale rural adaptation projects. 82 FINAL REPORT

91 SECTION V: CROSS-CUTTING ELEMENTS Key cross-cutting elements of USAID Mekong ARCC include gender in adaptation decision making, M&E systems and how to measure resilience to climate change, and communications. A. GENDER IN ADAPTATION DECISION MAKING The USAID Mekong ARCC project produced a comprehensive guide to gender-sensitive adaptation programming titled Integrating Gender Considerations into Community-based Adaptation in Agrarian Communities in the Lower Mekong Basin. It offers a detailed overview of how gender roles and social constructs influence vulnerability of particular social groups to climate risks. The common narrative driving the focus on women s human rights and gender equality is that women in developing countries are among the most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change, but are simultaneously change agents for their communities and environmental conservation. Access, control, use and knowledge of resources are gendered, meaning that women and men are likely to have different priorities and perceptions about socio-ecological changes. A key issues for climate change adaptation interventions at the village level is that the way that community members and their knowledge are engaged may not fully reflect this in adaptation strategies. The guiding principle of a gender-responsive approach to climate change adaptation is social inclusivity. In addition to gender, other overlapping social dimensions influence the adaptive capacity of an individual, a family, and even an entire community, including age, ethnicity, citizenship status or disability. Using an approach geared toward social inclusivity and participation may then also support the engagement and contribution of marginalized sections of a community in adaptation planning. A Snapshot of Gender Dimensions across the LMB Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam have all committed to the advancement of gender equality and women s human rights in their national policy and legislative frameworks. Gender-sensitive land reforms in Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam provide for legally required equal access to land and ownership between men and women. The Government of Cambodia recently committed to achieving percent representation of women in decision-making positions within its civil service by In addition to having specialist laws on gender equality and domestic violence, gender equality is a guiding principle in Vietnam s National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. In practice, however, ability to access land and economic resources, and participate in community and household decisionmaking remains uneven between men and women. Within the communities in Chiang Rai, a highly tribal and ethnically diverse province of Thailand, sociocultural norms regarding gender differed across ethnic groups. Gender roles and responsibilities were rigid and traditional in some villages, and looser in others. But generally, opportunities and constraints related to individuals mobility and ability to access education, healthcare, economic opportunities and assets such as land were not as divided by gender as by ethnicity or Thai citizenship. FINAL REPORT 83

92 In contrast, the community in Sakon Nakhon, Thailand had notably high levels of gender and income equality. Women and men were almost equally represented in community leadership, and community meetings had as active participation from women as men. In Kampong Thom, Cambodia, as in much of Cambodia, seasonal migration patterns mean there are intermittent periods of several de facto female-headed households in the villages. Women continue to manage domestic and agricultural tasks, although men return occasionally to help during more laborintensive periods. As such, women appear to have more regular control over resources and household financial decisions than men. During community meetings, women and men were equally vocal about their needs and views on community vulnerability although ultimately, men dominated overall decision making. In Thuan Hoa Commune in Vietnam s Kien Giang, equal access to political participation and community decision-making was an issue. Women only accounted for 25 percent of the commune government and none were in positions of leadership, except for the local chapter of the Women s Union. When the village representative of the Women s Union joined USAID Mekong ARCC workshops, women appeared more encouraged to participate and share their opinions. In the village with no local Women s Union, women were less likely to leave their home and actively participate in the workshops. While gender equality in literacy and school enrollment is a national priority for Vietnam, the situation in rural areas is different. While girls may complete secondary school, cultural norms encourage them to find a job, get married and start a family, whereas boys are allowed to move outside the village for work or perhaps further schooling. Additionally, as discussed further in the next sub-section, certain livelihoods are considered less appropriate for women. Traditional gender stereotypes and norms hold fast in many rural areas of Lao PDR, especially within certain ethnic groups. A vast majority of the population in Lao PDR live in rural areas governed by a village chief and council. A little over one percent of village chiefs are women. The situation in the target community in Khammouan reflected this, as no women held leadership roles. Sociocultural norms defined the roles and responsibilities of women and men in the community. Early marriage (below the age of 18) is common within rural communities, and domestic violence is a concern, despite the existence of preventative laws. In Khammouan, women did not appear to have prior experience participating in community politics or decision-making certainly not alongside male community members and leaders. Typically the male member attends as the household representative. The USAID Mekong ARCC workshops were in a majority of cases the first women had ever attended, and it was a challenge to encourage their active participation. Livelihoods & Gender across the LMB While specific livelihoods and roles of men and women differed across the community sites, there were some similarities among them. Women were predominantly responsible for tasks such as collecting water, gathering NTFPs for consumption or sale, and caregiving. They also may have specific tasks related to rice cultivation and animal husbandry. Outside of the household, some women earned income running a small business or selling handicrafts, or working on plantations as casual laborers, in beauty salons, garment factories or construction. In several communities, it was more likely for men to migrate to a neighboring province or country for work than women. As such, there were some de facto femaleheaded households (e.g. husband migrates for work or is elderly or disabled), in addition to a few de jure female-headed households (e.g. single, separated or widowed women). These households typically carry a double day burden, meaning the heads must handle domestic work and the role of 84 FINAL REPORT

93 breadwinner. Men in the communities generated income from agriculture or aquaculture, or professions such as teaching. Climate change does now, and will continue to, impact local livelihoods and gender roles in these areas. Generally speaking, in settings where women s opportunities are more constrained than men s and their responsibilities are closely tied to natural resources, their livelihoods are more likely to be negatively affected by climate and non-climate-related changes in their environment. For example, water shortage during the dry season requires women and girls in Lao PDR s Nakai District to walk several kilometers and wait in long lines every day to collect water for household use. Women responsible for collecting NTFPs such as mushrooms, bamboo shoots or ant eggs face a similar situation. These prolonged chores take time and energy away from their several other daily responsibilities. Outward migration for work opportunities in neighboring provinces or countries may increase, particularly among younger generations, shifting social structures in the community. Remittances may help prevent households from falling into poverty. In places where women s access to assets, credit, labor markets or insurance markets is restricted; where there is a gender-based wage differential; and where social capital is determined by marital status, female-headed households may be more vulnerable to poverty compared to male-headed households. INFOCUS: KIEN GIANG, VIETNAM During the early 2000s in Vietnam, the government initiated a rice-shrimp rotation system in the Delta under their land use planning policy. The rice-shrimp system did not demand as much labor as the previous rice intensive farming, which required both women s and men s involvement. Men continued the rice-shrimp rotation system while women were able to spend more time on other household tasks. Shrimp farming is considered to be more physically and culturally appropriate for men, and as such, men dominate this livelihood. While women s opportunities to earn income through laboring in rice fields decreased, the rice-shrimp system brings in more household income so generally, this shift appeared to be perceived positively for both men and women in Thuan Hoa Commune. Health & Gender across the LMB Climate change can directly and indirectly impact human health. Increasing average temperatures, particularly during the dry season, heighten the risk of heat-related illness such as heat stroke and exhaustion. At least 20 percent of community members across all project sites (and up to 50 percent in Kampong Thom, Cambodia) noted increased incidence of illness, including stress and mental health, as one of the main impacts of changing weather and climate patterns. For rural communities that produce most of the food they consume, climate change and environmental degradation that negatively affects crop productivity, livestock health, and access to NTFPs and animal protein sources are major food security concerns. Where household food hierarchies exist, food scarcity may mean that women forego or reduce their portion so their spouse or children may have more. FINAL REPORT 85

94 Maternal and child health and water-borne illness are major health concerns in Khammouan s Nakai District. Khammouan has one of the highest child mortality rates in Lao PDR, with 138 deaths per 1,000 live births. There is a local health clinic with medical personnel and basic equipment but the nearest hospital is virtually inaccessible for the average villager. Whether by culture or by necessity, pregnant women commonly give birth in their own homes without the assistance of a skilled birth attendant or other health professional. Treating water for drinking purposes is not widely practiced, leading to higher prevalence of water-borne illness. In the project communities, 30 percent of children were considered underweight. IN FOCUS: KHAMMOUAN, LAO PDR With water shortages during the dry season, women who are primarily responsible for collecting water must travel further to find water, leaving less time for their other duties. If women must travel further afield to collect water or NTFPs, they may potentially be at higher risk of encountering unexploded ordnances (UXOs) left from the Indochina Wars. Some districts in Khammouan have a very high density of UXOs, and climate change may potentially increase people s risk as they push into new areas of land as land suitability changes. Source: Lao PDR Vulnerability Assessment, Lao PDR Draft National Disaster Management Plan Gender, Education, & Climate Change Awareness Generally, across the four countries, higher education levels correlated with concern about climate change. Across all USAID Mekong ARCC sites, women were nearly twice as likely as men to lack formal schooling. A majority of the women however did complete at least primary school. While men were more likely to have completed secondary schooling, the numbers of men and women who completed tertiary-level schooling were both low. More women than men reported not knowing where to access information about the weather or not having/seeking access. The difference between men and women was notable in the Cambodia, Lao PDR and Vietnam sites. Men in the USAID Mekong ARCC communities were more knowledgeable about climate change prior to project implementation. Among the respondents who reported hearing about climate change in Kien Giang, Kampong Thom and Khammouan, men far outnumbered women although generally, awareness among both men and women was low. Over 80 percent of women surveyed in Thuan Hoa Commune had not heard of climate change though they reported noticing changes in weather patterns. Following the pilot adaptation activities and awareness raising workshops in the communities, knowledge of climate change and adaptation strategies increased overall, with a balanced distribution across men and women. For example, climate change awareness among women increased over 60 percent in Kampong Thom. Advancing Gender-Responsive Rural Adaptation: Lessons & Recommendations Early Planning The project s approach to be gender-aware from the outset had a notable influence on the planning and implementation phases of the community adaptation pilots. Recommended by many studies and resources on gender-responsive climate change adaptation processes, the project s monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework integrated gender-based outcomes from the very beginning. Sexdisaggregated data was collected from community members to better understand differing experiences. 86 FINAL REPORT

95 Among the metrics used to evaluate potential adaptation options was whether the activity would benefit women and other groups that may be marginalized. Participatory Approach Due to USAID Mekong ARCC s participatory approach to adaptation planning, women s representation in local decision-making was a priority. Project partners conducted vulnerability assessments using participatory methods and tools in each target community. Participatory tools used to capture the vulnerability of major livelihoods, natural resources and land use to climate and non-climate hazards included: a seasonal calendar, historical timeline, village mapping and a community vulnerability matrix. A series of community workshops and focus group discussions were dedicated toward these activities, with skilled facilitators consciously encouraging inclusivity and gender balance in the sessions. Engaging women in community workshops though sometimes challenging generally enriched the discussion as they contributed their knowledge and experiences. In Sakon Nakhon, for example, women led the project partners on transect walks through their community as part of the village mapping process. In Kampong Thom, women highlighted important connections between health and their responsibilities caring for livestock. Not only do participatory methods help address gender imbalances in decision-making, but a diversity of perspectives draws on the full community potential to support the development of more informed, effective and targeted activities. For example, in Kien Giang, USAID Mekong ARCC helped install a loudspeaker early warning system after women in the community highlighted the need for improved communications infrastructure in order to stay aware of weather-related events that may impact their safety or livelihoods. And in Khammouan, many of the women helped sustain the momentum to complete improvements to the water supply system, volunteering their own labor even when complications threatened to delay because they understood the community would benefit directly from the work. Gender Roles and Timing Both men and women in rural communities, such as the ones USAID Mekong ARCC worked with, have several daily tasks and responsibilities. Their participation in project workshops and training, or water or forest management committees may be an additional burden on their time. Timing is a key consideration in order to support an inclusive process. USAID Mekong ARCC partners tried to convene community members at convenient times of the day and season. Women s work schedules are often more flexible, allowing them to adjust their tasks around community workshops. In some communities, such as in Cambodia s Kampong Thom Province, seasonal migration patterns made it a challenge to collect data and engage the same household members over time. During the harvesting or planting seasons, workshop facilitators conducted sessions with community members in the evenings. In the community sites in Thailand, it was noted that the community workshops were often held at hours when youth were in school. Furthermore, many young adults work in urban areas or other provinces, meaning that generation of the community may be underrepresented in decision-making processes. Build Knowledge Where possible, aim to build knowledge across and among all stakeholders with an eye toward creating equal learning opportunities for men and women. In the communities, USAID Mekong ARCC provided training on climate change, adaptation strategies and agricultural techniques. Not only does this build FINAL REPORT 87

96 capacity among the community, but it also helps create buy-in for adaptation activities. Training materials were created with local conditions in mind and a little creativity often went a long way. Edu-tainment and visual aids were especially helpful in communicating projected climate change impacts on communities, particularly in communities where language or literacy posed challenges for some sections of the community. In some cases, it was more effective to hold awareness raising sessions separately for women. Special consideration must be given to ensure learning opportunities for women as well as men. For example, in Kien Giang, a major adaptation activity involved technical training to modify the riceshrimp system, which is dominated by male farmers. However, the project specifically targeted women and female-headed households in livelihood diversification through eco-friendly animal husbandry. Although this activity was less extensive than the rice-shrimp activity a major source of community and household income and could have benefitted from more technical training, many participants were positive about the learning opportunity and some took their own initiative to replicate the activity replacing the pigs for chickens. In this way, community members can not only build their own household adaptive capacity, but also serve as examples and resources for other community members. B. M&E SYSTEMS The USAID Mekong ARCC program s M&E systems were designed to capture various levels of outputs and outcomes, as well as empower local communities to incorporate adaptation monitoring and learning into their own ongoing governance processes. From a big picture perspective, the USAID Mekong ARCC goals and objectives were as follows: Goal To Increase adaptive capacity and resilience of communities to the negative impacts of climate change. Objectives 1. Increase human and institutional capacity to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans and strategies. 2. Strengthen policies, tools, methodologies and practices for ecosystem services valuation and climate resilience. 3. Demonstrate and scale-up model actions for integrated approaches to climate change adaptation. 4. Support and sustain regional learning networks to share and replicate best practices. 1. USAID MEKONG ARCC THEORY OF CHANGE A Theory of Change (TOC) shows a causal pathway by illustrating what conditions and actions are needed to reach specific goals, and requires the articulation of underlying assumptions that can be tested and measured. It encourages a project or program to focus on what needs to be changed, and from this basis, helps guide the identification of actions to bring about those changes. The USAID Mekong ARCC theory of change (Figure 28 below) provides a concise roadmap on how to reach project goals and helps the project map out key assumptions that will influence the level and quality of achievement of project activities. 88 FINAL REPORT

97 Figure 28: USAID Mekong ARCC Theory of Change FINAL REPORT 89

98 2. M&E AND ADAPTATION The USAID Mekong ARCC program s M&E framework tracked results at two levels, overall project and site-specific levels. The general purpose and design of the two levels of M&E systems are illustrated in Table 10 below. Table 10: Project M&E System vs. Community M&E System Project M&E System Ensures project outcomes as set out in the logical framework Captures project learning at the macro level Mostly managed by project staff Objective and accurate data for donor and external reporting and learning Within limited project timeline Community M&E System Builds the ability to reflect changes and inform decisions Measures community progress towards adapting to CC Participatory and managed by community and stakeholders More subjective data meeting community needs and relying on data with easy access Long term and aimed at sustainability At each level, the performance indicators varied and reflected what the program was attempting to measure, and how it could be accomplished. A snapshot of USAID Mekong ARCC overall performance indicators are laid out here. Illustrative site specific indicators are shown in Summary of Results of Section IV. Overarching Performance Indicators The USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators tracked included the following: 1.1 Number of laws, policies, strategies, plans, agreements, or regulations addressing climate change adaptation officially proposed, adopted, or implemented 2.1 Number of stakeholders with increased capacity to adapt to impacts of climate variability and change 2.2 Number of adaptation activities or strategies designed and implemented by communities to reduce genderspecific vulnerability to climate change 2.3 Number of people aware of climate-resilient livelihood strategies 3.1 Number of climate adaptation tools, technologies, and methodologies developed, tested, and/or adopted 3.2 Number of hectares of biological significance and/or natural resources under improved natural resource management Below is Table 11 indicated a breakdown of total achievement of project indicators by year. Additional detail about the life of project results for each of these standard indicators and sub-indicators is shown in Annex FINAL REPORT

99 Table 11: Indicator Achievements by Fiscal Year Indicator Baseline Total Target FY2012 Actual FY2013 Actual FY2014 Actual FY2015 Actual FY2016 Actual Total Achievement Total Achievement vs. Total Target (%) 1.1 Number of laws, policies, strategies, plans, agreements, or regulations addressing climate change (mitigation or adaptation) and/or biodiversity conservation officially proposed, adopted, or implemented as a result of U.S. Government assistance (STD: ) 1.1a Number of community strategies for community adaptation goals 1.1b Number of agreed community plans to implement adaptation strategies 1.1c Number of sets of community regulations to implement adaptation strategies 1.1d Number of community M&E plans to track progress on community plans 1.1e Number of ecosystem valuation guidelines supported at national level for policy discussion 1.1f Number of prefeasibility studies proposed at national-level 1.1 Other regional strategies/guidelines N/A % N/A % N/A % N/A % N/A % N/A % N/A % N/A % FINAL REPORT 91

100 Indicator Baseline Total Target FY2012 Actual FY2013 Actual FY2014 Actual FY2015 Actual FY2016 Actual Total Achievement Total Achievement vs. Total Target (%) 2.1 Number of stakeholders with increased capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change as a result of U.S. Government assistance (STD: ) Number of community members implementing adaptation strategies based on climate-integrated community plans Number of community members implementing M&E systems to track progress on activity implementation and/or climate conditions/impacts 2.2 Number of activities implemented by communities to reduce genderspecific vulnerability to climate change (CUSTOM) 2.3 Number of people aware of climateresilient livelihood strategies (CUSTOM) 3.1 Number of climate change adaptation tools, technologies, & methodologies developed, tested/or adopted as a result of USG N/A ,052 1, % N/A ,052 1, % 4 N/A % N/A % 201 (2014) % N/A % 4 We significantly exceeded the target due to our work with WFP. We did not include Cambodia in the PMP target as in the beginning we were not permitted to work there. We later collaborated with WFP and successfully implemented the field initiative in FY FINAL REPORT

101 Indicator Baseline Total Target FY2012 Actual FY2013 Actual FY2014 Actual FY2015 Actual FY2016 Actual Total Achievement Total Achievement vs. Total Target (%) assistance (STD: REO) 3.2 Number of hectares of biological significance and/or natural resources under improved natural resource management as a result of USG assistance (STD: ) 4.1 Number of regional platforms created or strengthened (STD: REO) N/A ,096 1, % N/A % 5 5 The Project could achieve more than its target because the Climate Study generated significant interest of various platforms. Additionally, USAID Mekong ARCC has put a great deal of effort to develop relationships with different platforms particularly with the ADB. FINAL REPORT 93

102 Site-Specific Performance Indicators At the site-specific level, the implementing partner for each field adaptation initiative also reported on a set of contextually appropriate indicators that reflected community capacity to adapt to climate variability and change. Those site-level indicators were designed to roll up under three domains of community adaptive capacity and resilience strengthening (See Section IV for illustrative results): 1. Improved management of assets 2. Reduced vulnerability/good development 3. Adaptation capacity (knowledge of risks, knowledge of what to do and actions taken to adapt) These site-specific indicators varied depending on local context and activities, and included indicators such as aquaculture and livestock survival rate, management committees of community assets, diversification of climate-resilient income sources, and access to water for household consumption. Measuring Adaptation and Resilience The USAID Mekong ARCC Endline Report (Annex II) captures the detail and data behind the program s rigorous M&E efforts. How to measure adaptation and resilience is an emerging science, with new models arising from experiences around the world. Beyond the specific data in the Endline Report, the best way to illustrate how the team measured adaptation and resilience is to provide highlights from project sites that are grouped by the USAID Mekong ARCC Resilience Framework Pillars highlighted in Figure 29 below. The illustrative results are described in Table 5-7 of Section IV. Figure 29: Resilience Domains and Sample Indicators 94 FINAL REPORT

103 The USAID Mekong ARCC team also surveyed local communities to measure the change over time in their adaptive capacity. The full data set can be found in the Endline Report, but to illustrate how the team measured adaptive capacity across communities, Table 12 provides a glimpse of community responses. Table 12: Adaptive Capacity Scale Endline, Item I: Using climate information in decision-making Site Progress marker Kok Klang, Sakon Nakhon Huai Kang Pla, Chiang Rai Hae Ko, Chiang Rai Loh Yo, Chiang Rai Thuan Hoa, Kien Giang Level 5: Regularly access and consistently integrate climate information and forecasts into decisionmaking Level 4: Often access and integrate climate information and forecasts into decisionmaking Level 3: Sometimes access and integrate climate information and forecasts into decision-making Level 2: Access to some climate information and forecasts but rarely or don t consistently integrate it into decision-making Level 1: No access to relevant and/or useful climate information and forecasts Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline Endline Baseline C. COMMUNICATIONS USAID Mekong ARCC, as a first generation adaptation program designed to develop and test a proof of concept, started as a small program with an ambitious objective. From early on, the team realized that the legacy of the program would be lost in the ether without a sound communications strategy. Along each stage of the program, the team thought closely about the knowledge gained, the audiences that would benefit from that knowledge, and how exactly to translate and package that knowledge in a useful fashion. This meant taking long and complex scientific reports, for example, and breaking them down into bite sized pieces focused on how specific audiences consume information. Table 13 illustrates USAID Mekong ARCC s overall communications strategy and corresponding publications: FINAL REPORT 95

104 Audience Consumption Preferences Illustrative USAID Mekong ARCC publications Table 13: USAID Mekong ARCC Communications Strategy & Publications Research & Academic Community Scientific reports, Peer-reviewed journal articles, Sectoral Analyses - Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong - Merging science- and community-led adaptation planning processes in the Lower Mekong Basin - Adaptation planning in the Lower Mekong Basin: merging scientific data with local perspective to improve community resilience to climate change Audience Consumption Preferences Illustrative USAID Mekong ARCC publications Audience Consumption Preferences Illustrative USAID Mekong ARCC publications LMB Sectoral Vulnerability Reports: - Agriculture Sector Vulnerability Report - Fisheries Sector Vulnerability Report - Livestock Sector Vulnerability Report - NTFP (Non-Timber Forest Products) & CWR (Crop Wild Relatives) Sector Vulnerability Report - Protected Areas Vulnerability Report - Socio-Economics Sector Vulnerability Report LMB Policy Makers & Private Sector Country vulnerability assessments, economic impacts and valuation, climate finance - Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong: Key Findings - Country-Level Climate Change Vulnerability Profiles - Valuing Ecosystem Services in the Lower Mekong Basing: A Synthesis Report - Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin: An Analysis of Economic Values at Risk - Harnessing Climate Finance for Rural Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin: Opportunities, Constraints and Future Prospects: Key Findings - Adaptation of Rice-Shrimp Farming in the Mekong Delta: How community adaptation solutions can inform landscape level change Development Partners & Practitioners Program design frameworks, Implementation lessons & models, Blog posts - Climate Risks for Rural Livelihoods: Agriculture and Water Management in the Lower Mekong Basin - Integrated Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Decision Making Framework - Planning and Implementing Rural Adaptation Initiatives in the Lower Mekong: Methods Applied to Integrate Climate Science and Local Knowledge - Kok Klang Community Members Pitch in to Preserve Valuable Community Forest - Lessons on Integrating Scientific and Community Knowledge of Climate Change to Develop Adaptation Plans in the Lower Mekong Basin -Integrating Gender Considerations into Community-based Adaptation in Agrarian Communities in the Lower Mekong Basin, -USAID Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change: Approach to Scaling and Partnerships - Fact Sheet: Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Options in North and Northeastern Thailand Overall, the team spent considerable time and resources curating publications, blog posts, and communication pieces in order to amplify the voice and impact of the relatively small team in Bangkok. The USAID Mekong ARCC team s vision is that the compendium of knowledge products sliced into multiple communications pieces can altogether serve as foundational documentation for future generations of adaptation programming work in the LMB. (See Table 8 in Section V for a compendium of knowledge products written under USAID Mekong ARCC) 96 FINAL REPORT

105 ANNEX I: STANDARD PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Table 14 below indicates life of project results for each of these standard indicators and sub-indicators. Table 14: List of Project Achievements by Standard Indicators USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators 1.1 Number of laws, policies, strategies, plans, agreements, or regulations addressing climate change (mitigation or adaptation) and/or biodiversity conservation officially proposed, adopted, or implemented as a result of U.S. Government assistance (STD: ) 1.1a Number of community strategies for community adaptation goals 1.1b Number of agreed community plans to implement adaptation strategies 1.1c Number of sets of community regulations to implement adaptation strategies Total Target Total Achieved Total Achieved vs. Total Target (%) % Specific Achievements community vision maps of: - 4 villages in Thuan Hoa Commune, Kien Giang - 3 villages in Pateung Sub-District, Chiang Rai - 1 Kok Klang village, Tao Ngoi District, Sakon Nakhon - 6 villages in Nakai District, Khammouan - 6 villages in Chey Commune, Kampong Thom climate change adaptation plans of: - 1 Thuan Hoa Commune - 3 villages in Pateung Sub-District, Chiang Rai - 1 Kok Klang village in Toi Ngoi District, Sakon Nakhon - 4 villages in Nakai District, Khammouan - 1 Chey Commune, Kampong Thom 8 8 sets of community regulations to implement CCA: - 1 set of regulations for community forests and fish conservation zone of Hae Ko Village, Chiang Rai - 3 sets of regulations for Kok Klang, Sakon Nakhon for the management of community forest, recyclable waste, and water supply - 4 sets of regulations for villages in FINAL REPORT 97

106 USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators 1.1d Number of community M&E plans to track progress on community plans 1.1e Number of ecosystem valuation guidelines supported at national level for policy discussion 1.1f Number of pre-feasibility studies proposed at national-level 1.1 Other regional strategies/guidelines 2.1 Number of stakeholders with increased capacity to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change as a result of U.S. Government assistance (STD: ) Number of community members implementing adaptation strategies based on climateintegrated community plans Total Target Total Achieved Total Achieved vs. Total Target (%) Specific Achievements Khammouan including 1 set of fish and frog pond management regulations for Ban Khouansam and 3 sets of water management regulations for Ban Xong, Ban Yang and Ban Donekeo 5 5 community M&E plans for CCA activities: - 1 plan of Thuan Hoa Commune, Kien Giang - 3 plans of 3 villages in Patueng Subdistrict, Chiang Rai - 1 plan of Kok Klang Village, Toa Ngoi District, Sakon Nakhon 0 Completed 4 country specific guidelines for ecosystem valuation and hosted a workshop in conjunction with the ADB to present ESV for national level government officials of 6 Mekong countries. The project followed up with attendees to understand if Guidelines were supported at national level but received few responses. 0 Not Applicable. Part of contract deliverable that was revised 03/21/16 to draft feasibility study on access to climate financing for community based adaptation projects in the Lower Mekong Basin. PMP was not revised at time of contract. 1 Alternate Wetting-Drying Technical Guidelines for Rice Production for ASEAN Technical Working Group on Agriculture and Research Development (ATWGARD) as a part of the ASEAN Guidelines for Scaling-Up Climate Smart Agriculture Practices 296 1, % 6 Among 29 persons implementing M&E of CCA, 23 of them also implemented adaptation strategies, so they were counted among the 1,371 persons under Only 6 persons solely implemented M&E resulting in the total of 1,377 persons under 2.1 (1,371+6). 1,371 Gender disaggregation: men women Location disaggregation: 6 Over-achievement for Indicators and 2.3 is primarily due to the addition of Cambodia after the PMP was approved. In 2013, USAID/Cambodia did not grant USAID Mekong ARCC permission to work in country. Only in June 2013, was USAID Mekong ARCC allowed to commence activities. 98 FINAL REPORT

107 USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators Number of community members implementing M&E systems to track progress on activity implementation and/or climate conditions/impacts 2.2 Number of activities implemented by communities to reduce gender-specific vulnerability to climate change (CUSTOM) 2.3 Number of people aware of climate-resilient livelihood strategies (CUSTOM) Total Target Total Achieved Total Achieved vs. Total Target (%) Specific Achievements persons in Chiang Rai - 81 persons in Sakon Nakhon persons in Kien Giang persons in Khammouan persons in Kampong Thom Strategy type disaggregation (there are overlaps in individuals among strategy types): persons implementing livestock husbandry persons implementing crop/agriculture persons implementing aquaculture/fisheries persons implementing water management persons implementing ecosystems management 29 Gender disaggregation: - 16 men - 13 women Location disaggregation: - 14 persons in Chiang Rai - 10 persons in Sakon Nakhon - 5 persons in Kien Giang Type of M&E disaggregation (there are overlaps in individuals among M&E types): - 27 persons tracking progress on CCA implementation - 9 persons tracking weather/climate conditions/impacts % 10 activities benefiting women by location: - 1 pig raising on bio-mattress, Kien Giang - 3 activities in 3 villages on livestock production for consumption and supplementary income, Chiang Rai - 1 activity in 1 village on livestock production for consumption and supplementary income, Sakon Nakhon - 3 water infrastructure systems for 3 villages in Khammouan - 2 activities on the system of rice intensification and integrated farming system, Kampong Thom % Gender disaggregation: men women Location disaggregation: persons in Chiang Rai FINAL REPORT 99

108 USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators 3.1 Number of climate change adaptation tools, technologies, and methodologies developed, tested/or adopted as a result of USG assistance (STD: REO) Total Target Total Achieved Total Achieved vs. Total Target (%) Specific Achievements - 38 persons in Sakon Nakhon persons in Kien Giang - 65 persons in Khammouan - 87 persons in Kampong Thom % 18 regional tools - 1 methodology for the Climate Change Impact and Adaptation (CCIA) Study - 4 climate change and adaptation study tools including 1) hydrological modeling-iwrm, 2) land use suitability model- LUSET, 3) modeling agricultural systems and crops-aquacrop and, 4) climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning (CAM) - 1 Baseline Climate Study - 1 Regional vulnerability assessment (CCIA Study) - 6 specific thematic regional vulnerability assessment (comparative analyses of the vulnerability of different sectors as a part of the wider CCIA Study) including 1) Agriculture Report, 2) Livestock Report, 3) Fisheries Report, 4) Protected Areas Report, 5) Non-Timber Forest Products and Crop Wild Relatives Report, 6) Socioeconomic Report - 4 guidelines for valuing ecosystem services in the Lower Mekong Basin: country reports for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam - 1 website-based ecosystem Value Estimator 15 site-specific tools - 5 for Kien Giang including 1) Participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment, 2) Scientific Climate Story, 3) standard operating procedure for shrimp with nursery, 4) water monitoring system, and 5) biomattress pig standard operating procedure - 2 for Chiang Rai including 1) Scientific Climate Story and Shared Understanding report and 2) Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment and Community Climate Story report - 3 for Sakon Nakhon including 1) Scientific Climate Story and Shared Understanding report, 2) Vulnerability 100 FINAL REPORT

109 USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators 3.2 Number of hectares of biological significance and/or natural resources under improved natural resource management as a result of USG assistance (STD: ) 4.1 Number of regional platforms created or strengthened (STD: REO) Total Target Total Achieved Total Achieved vs. Total Target (%) Specific Achievements and Capacity Assessment and Community Climate Story report, and 3) climate witness and weather monitoring guide - 2 for Khammouan including 1) Vulnerability Assessment and Community Climate Story report and 2) Scientific Climate Story report - 2 for Cambodia including 1) the Consolidated Livelihoods Exercises for Analyzing Resilience (CLEAR) created with WFP, a planning tool for understanding CC impacts on livelihoods in Cambodia and 2) Scientific Climate Story report for Kampong Thom - 1 CLEAR tool for Lao PDR created with WFP 805 1, % Disaggregated by location: ha of rice-shrimp pond area, Kien Giang ha in Chiang Rai (33 for integrated agriculture, 0.4 for fish conservation zone, and for community forests) ha in Sakon Nakhon (2.5 for native rice cultivation and for community forests) ha in Khammouan (300 of protected area for Ban Xong, 250 of protected area for Ban Donekeo) ha in Kampong Thom (farm areas that benefit from canal and dyke constructions) % 7 1. Federation of Asian Bishops' Conferences (FABC) 2. MRC 3. ADB Cambodia Climate Resilience & Provincial Roads Improvement (CRPRI) Project 4. ADB GMS Environment Operations Center mapping web platform 5. ADB Climate Risk Financing 6. ADB GMS Climate Change Roundtable 7. WFP 7 Over-achievement for indicator 4.1 is primarily due to the close partnerships and collaboration USAID Mekong ARCC developed through the ADB and Roundtable partners. FINAL REPORT 101

110 USAID Mekong ARCC Standard Indicators Total Target Total Achieved Total Achieved vs. Total Target (%) Specific Achievements 8. The ASEAN Technical Working Group on Agriculture and Research Development (ATWGARD) 102 FINAL REPORT

111 ANNEX II: ENDLINE REPORT The USAID Mekong ARCC Endline Report captures the detail and data behind the program s rigorous M&E efforts. You can download the Endline Report from Figure 30: USAID Mekong ARCC Endline Report FINAL REPORT 103