Update on Cotton: Prices, Responsible Sourcing, and Resources for Your Business
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1 Update on Cotton: Prices, Responsible Sourcing, and Resources for Your Business Hosted by United States Fashion Industry Association (USFIA) & Cotton Incorporated August 30, :00 P.M. Eastern/11:00 A.M. Pacific
2 Today s Speaker Mark Messura Senior Vice President of Global Supply Chain Marketing Cotton Incorporated
3 Do you have a question? During the webinar, all attendees will be assigned to listenonly mode. Please use the Questions box on your dashboard to ask a question during the webinar.
4 Q u e s t i o n s? Please use the Questions box on your dashboard on the right side of your screen. You can also ask a question after the webinar. info@usfashionindustry.com Phone:
5 Update on Cotton Prices, Responsible Sourcing and Resources for Your Business
6 Cents/lb 250 World Cotton Price August August Aug-70 Aug-73 Aug-76 Aug-79 Aug-82 Aug-85 Aug-88 Aug-91 Aug-94 Aug-97 Aug-00 Aug-03 Aug-06 Aug-09 Sep-12 Sep-15 Source: Cotton Outlook
7 The Key Cotton Prices Cents per pound Mid-May 2015 Mid-June 2016 Mid-July 2016 August 24-29, 2016 A Index ICE U.S. Futures China India Sources: Cotlook, Chinese Auction Reserves Estimate
8 What factors determine the price for cotton? Planting estimates Weather Trade imports and exports Inventories Government policies Consumer demand Retailer/Brand demand Textile manufacturer demand Cotton Seed prices Corn prices Soybean prices Wheat prices Farm technology Technical Signals Cotton Price
9 A FEW THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT COTTON
10 Information Sources for Cotton 770 T-shirts or 220 Denim jeans Bremen Cotton Exchange International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) Cotlook Limited and Cotton Outlook Cotton Incorporated and Cotton University
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12 The Cotton Calendar Northern Hemisphere (approximately 90% of world production) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec PLANTING GROWTH 2015 HARVEST New Crop Cotton 2016 Mill Deliveries and Exports
13 The Cotton Calendar Northern Hemisphere (approximately 90% of world production) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mill Deliveries and Exports from 2015 Harvest PLANTING 2016 GROWTH HARVEST New Crop Cotton 2017 Mill Deliveries and Exports New Crop Cotton
14 FUNDAMENTALS OF SUPPLY/DEMAND
15 World Cotton Supply/Demand Balance Sheet Millions of bales Beginning Stocks 2015/ / Production SUPPLY Mill Use DEMAND Ending Stocks Source: USDA
16 World Cotton Production World Total China 2012/ / / / /17
17 World Cotton Production Millions of bales India % China United States Pakistan / /2016 Brazil Uzbekistan
18 World Cotton Ending Stocks China World Total 26% reduction over three years 2012/ / / / /17
19 Leading Cotton Exporters Burkina Faso 4% Mali 3% Rest of World 21% Brazil Australia 11% 8% Uzbekistan 7% India 12% USA 34%
20 UNDERSTANDING PRICE MOVEMENTS
21 Cents/lb World Cotton Price November May Source: Cotton Outlook
22 The Key Cotton Prices Cents per pound Mid-May 2015 Mid-June 2016 Mid-July 2016 August 24-29, 2016 A Index ICE U.S. Futures China India Sources: Cotlook, Chinese Auction Reserves Estimate
23 The Cotton Calendar Northern Hemisphere (approximately 90% of world production) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mill Deliveries and Exports from 2015 Harvest PLANTING 2016 GROWTH HARVEST New Crop Cotton 2017 Mill Deliveries and Exports New Crop Cotton
24 The A Index Best proxy for a world cotton price Survey of offering rates Memphis/Orleans/Texas Tanzanian Iv. Coast BEMA Brazilian Benin BELA Mali ROKY/KATI Memphis/Eastern Uzbek California/Arizona Burkina Faso RUDY Indian H4/MECH-1 Pakistani Australian Greek Mexican Syrian NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ NQ
25 The Key Cotton Prices Cents per pound Mid-May 2015 Mid-June 2016 Mid-July 2016 August 24-29, 2016 A Index ICE U.S. Futures China India Sources: Cotlook, Chinese Auction Reserves Estimate
26 Changing Estimates for Pakistani Production Affect Domestic Prices December 2015 August 2016 Production 2015/2016 Imports Domestic Price 61 cents/lb
27 The Cotton Calendar Northern Hemisphere (approximately 90% of world production) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Mill Deliveries and Exports from 2015 Harvest PLANTING GROWTH HARVEST World Price down 5% in 2 weeks New Crop Cotton 2017 Mill Deliveries and Exports New Crop Cotton
28 The Cotton Calendar Northern Hemisphere (approximately 90% of world production) Futures Contracts Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec PLANTING GROWTH 2016 HARVEST New Crop Cotton 2017 Mill Deliveries and Exports New Crop Cotton
29 U.S. Cotton Futures cents per pound Contract Month Price October December March May December Source: ICE December
30 RESPONSIBLE SOURCING
31 Sourcing Cotton The price of fiber can account for 60%-75% of the cost of manufacturing a pound of yarn. Once the cover of a bale is removed, there is essentially no way to determine the origin of the cotton or the type of production method used to grow the cotton (e.g., organically-produced cotton). Every bale of U.S. cotton has a unique bale identification number assigned to it. Cotton is traceable to the gin that processed it.
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