University of Hohenheim. The potentials of bio-energy production in Cameroon

Transcription

1 University of Hohenheim Master-thesis The potentials of bio-energy production in Cameroon Prof. Dr. Drs. h.c. J. Zeddies Institute for Farm Management, Department of Analysis, Planning and Organisation of Agricultural production Hohenheim, 2009 Percy Pingpoh Ndiennapoh This work was financially supported by Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ)/Eschborn

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement LIST OF TABLES... VI LIST OF FIGURES...VII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND MEASURES... VIII 1 INTRODUCTION Objectives of the study Structure of thesis AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN CAMEROON General overview Political framework conditions Agricultural sector Energy sector Economic performance of the agricultural sector Environmental impacts of agriculture METHODS AND ANALYTICAL APPROACH Description of study area Selection of study site Data collection Data analysis Conceptual frame work Analysis and projections Short comings of the research...26 II

3 4 NATIONAL FOOD SUPPLY VERSUS FOOD DEMAND Supply from the agricultural sector Available land area for agriculture Crop production Animal production Demand from the agricultural sector Export/import surplus in crop production Export/import surplus in animal production Consumption patterns 34 5 ESTIMATES AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS Current potentials for bio-energy production Changes in yield, land and per capita consumption Estimates of feed grain savings Summary of changes from 2010 to POTENTIAL IMPACT OF BIO-ENERGY EXPANSION CONCLUSIONS SUMMARY OF RESEARCH RÉSUMÉ DE LA RECHERCHE...58 REFERENCES...61 APPENDIX A: LIVESTOCK MAP OF CAMEROON...65 APPENDIX B: CAMEROON S VEGETATION...66 APPENDIX C: EXPERT QUESTIONNAIRE...67 III

4 APPENDIX D: FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS...79 APPENDIX E: AVERAGES OF THE TRADE BALANCE OF CROP PRODUCTION.79 APPENDIX F: AVERAGES OF THE TRADE BALANCE IN ANIMAL PRODUCTION...80 APPENDIX F: FAO ESTIMATES...81 IV

5 Acknowledgement Without the assistance of several individuals both in Germany and Cameroon, this study would never have been possible. The research study in Cameroon was supported by the German Technical Cooperation (GTZ), and their support for research through special grants for students is very inspiring. My interest in bio-energy was planted by Prof. Dr. Drs. h.c. J. Zeddies, to whom I am deeply indebted for his supervision and guidance. My gratitude also goes to my second supervisor, Prof. Dr. Volker Hoffmann, for all his corrections. To Nicole Schönleber, I am very grateful for all her constructive criticisms and remarks which helped me in fine tuning my research. I am also very indebted to the farmers, politicians, managers and researchers in Cameroon who willingly answered my questions. To my brothers: Clarence, Finlay and Clive, I would like to say thank you, not only for the lively discussions on my thesis, but also for the important logistical support while in Cameroon. For the detailed corrections, I would like to thank Florence Marie Milan. Special thanks to Donna Mae Pepito, for all her constructive feedbacks throughout the research as well as her constant support, love and friendship. Finally, to my parents who have always strived to provide me with the best opportunities in life, no matter the cost, my gratitude is simply too deep to express. V

6 List of tables Table 1: Relationship between household incomes and their cooking energy 14 Table 2: Arable land area in Table 3: Yearly harvested surface area for important crops 28 Table 4: Annual production of important crops 29 Table 5: Yearly yields of important crops 29 Table 6: Evolution of basic stocks 30 Table 7: Growth in meat and milk production 30 Table 8: Animal stocks, live stocks and the demand for roughage area in Cameroon 31 Table 9: Trade balance for crop production 32 Table 10: Trade balance for animal products 33 Table 11: Food consumption in Kg/capita/year 36 Table 12: Export (+)/Import (-) surplus in crop production 37 Table 13: Export (+)/Import (-) surplus in animal production 38 Table 14: Export (+)/ Import (-) surplus in meat production 38 Table 15: Grassland required from fallow land 39 Table 16: Potentials for bio-energy sources in 2005/ Table 17: Projected trend in the yields of developing countries 40 Table 18 : Food consumption in kg/capita/year in sub Saharan Africa 41 Table 19: Land released due to improved feed conversion 42 Table 20: Balance of all changes 43 Table 21: Changes in the demand of grassland 44 VI

7 List of figures Figure 1: National distribution of crops 4 Figure 2: Relationship between the objectives and strategies 7 Figure 3: Distribution of energy sources 11 Figure 4: Sources of electricity in Figure 5: Market share of kerosene in Figure 6: Energy sources within Cameroonian households 13 Figure 7: Direct contribution of the energy sector to the economic growth 15 Figure 8 : Contribution of the different sectors to the 2006 GDP 16 Figure 9: Matrix used in calculating the potential areas for energy crops 22 Figure 10: Agricultural land area in Figure 11: Trend in food consumption 34 Figure 12: Population growth 35 Figure 13: Impact of rise in crude oil prices 46 Figure 14: Action to reduce crude oil dependence 47 Figure 15: Current and future (5-10 years) importance of various energy sources 48 Figure 16: Current utilization and future growth potential of some biomass sources 49 Figure 17: Potential effect on domestic agriculture of a bio-energy expansion 50 Figure 18: Potential behaviour of small scale farmers to a bio-energy market 51 Figure 19: Potential for crops to be displaced by a bio-energy expansion 52 Figure 20: Ranking for diff. production and marketing systems for bio-energy production 52 Figure 21: Probable uses of bio-energy 53 VII

8 List of abbreviations and measures GDP Gross Domestic Product OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development UN United Nations MINADER Cameroon s ministry of agriculture and rural development RECIPES Renewable energy in emerging and developing countries: current situation, market potential and recommendations for a win-win-win for EU industry, the environment and local socio-economic development UNEP United Nations Environmental Program Sq.km Square kilometre FAO Food and Agricultural Organization Ha Hectare t Ton NIS Cameroon s National Institute of Statistics Kg Kilogram FAOSTAT Statistical database of the Food and Agricultural Organization AGRISTAT Statistical division of Cameroons ministry of agriculture and rural development t/ha Ton per hectare % Percent NGO Non Governmental Organisation Km Kilometre GE Grain Equivalent VIII

9 1 Introduction Cameroon s GDP is generated mainly from the production and export of petroleum and timber (OECD, 2008). However, both commodities are only available in limited amounts and are currently not being produced sustainably, especially timber. In 2006, agriculture and forestry made up 19% of the country s GDP (ibid) with traditional agriculture providing employment to 70% of the country s population (Jaza, 2005). According to the 2006 National Statistical Year book, 50% of Cameroonians presently live in rural areas, with farming as their primary source of income. Poverty has become an overwhelmingly rural phenomenon in Cameroon, with rural areas home to about 86% of the poor (United Nations, 2001). The increasing incidence of poverty in the rural areas coupled with rising food prices provoked riots and strikes in early The above scenarios create a need for a sustainable production system in order to enhance the reliability of both income and energy supply. The national government and the rural poor need a good and secure source of income to facilitate steady economic growth. In addition, a secure source of energy does not only serve as a stable source of income (through exports), for the national government, but also provides an affordable source of energy for the poor. In spite of food imports (food aid from third party countries), the favourable natural conditions make it possible for agriculture (through bio-energy production) to serve as that sustainable production system which could secure both income and energy supply. Given that bio-energy is currently being produced on a small scale in Cameroon and biomass production is expected to affect food security at the household, national and global levels (UN-energy, 2007), it is necessary to study the production potentials and possible effects of bio-energy on smallholder farmers. 1

10 1.1 Objectives of the study The main objective of this study is to determine the future production potential of agriculture in Cameroon with focus on bio-energy production from some agricultural commodities. The specific objectives are to: 1. Analyse the framework that affect agricultural production in Cameroon 2. Determine the current production structure, the usage and future outlook of bioenergy in Cameroon 3. Determine the potential agricultural areas for biomass production 4. Identify the impacts of agricultural biomass production at farm level (e.g. income and employment) 5. Suggest possible strategies to integrate small holder farmers in the bio-energy sector 1.2 Structure of thesis Chapter 1 provided a short introduction of the topic, together with the problem statement and the objectives of the research. Chapter 2 covers the background information and is an overview of the current frame works that affect agricultural production in Cameroon. Chapter 3 focuses both on the conceptual framework and research methods used in the research. The results are presented in chapter 4, with highlights on the current demand and supply situation of the different agricultural commodities being studied. Chapter 5 examines both the current and the future values of variables that affect the future potential of bioenergy production in Cameroon. Chapter 6 focuses on experts views with regards to the potential impact of a large scale bio-energy production. Chapter 7 and 8 are the conclusion and summary, and they examine how this research addresses its main and specific objectives. 2

11 2 Agricultural production in Cameroon In this chapter, an overview of Cameroons agricultural sector is presented, followed by the policies affecting agricultural production, its economic performance and the environmental impacts of agricultural production. 2.1 General overview Coffee and cocoa are the two main cash crops in Cameroon and the most dominant crops are maize, sorghum, rice, cassava, sweet potatoes, plantains, sugar cane, cotton, rubber and oil palms (MINADER, 2007). As illustrated in Figure 1, coffee and cocoa are mainly grown in the forest regions and the upper grassland areas of the western and northwest regions of Cameroon, where food crops are also important. A variety of ruminant live stocks can be found distributed all over the national territory (see Appendix A), with the major production regions for cattle being in the West, North West and the Northern regions. The Adamawa region and the western highlands are the major dairy production centres and cattle in these areas are not only a source of income or food but also serve as a source of social prestige (Pamo et.al, 2008). Cameroon has an extensive grazing system (ibid) with traditional dairy production supporting most of the milk production. Fulani herds provide the majority of cow milk production in Cameroon (Kameni et.al, 1994), with most of the milk coming from beef breeds. A majority of the milk consumption is within urban areas and the urban dwellers are served mainly by herds of cattle close to urban centres. Milk produced in remote areas seldom reaches the urban centres, due mainly to poor infrastructure (Pamo et.al, 2008). In spite of the limited number of commercial ranches in Cameroon (see Appendix A), state farms and other privately owned farms provide 20% of the country s agricultural production. The majority of the agricultural labour force is composed of smallholder farmers, contributing 80% of the total agricultural production and also assuring food security in the country (Muluh, 1995). 3

12 Figure 1: National distribution of crops Source: Les editions du jaguar,

13 Agriculture in Cameroon has the potential for steady growth and better performance. Amongst others, this is because: Cameroon has a favourable agro ecological and climatic condition, conducive for agricultural production. There is also, the possibility of expanding the surface area for agricultural production (FAOSTAT, 2008). This is because, of all the arable surface area that can be cultivated in Cameroon, only a small fraction is currently being cultivated (MINADER, 2006). There are 240,000 hectares of agricultural land that can be irrigated (MINADER, 2006).Of this vast potential only 33,000 hectares is currently being irrigated, thus leaving room for the possibility to increase the irrigated land area and consequently boosting the agricultural production. Cameroon which has a thriving sea port is surrounded by land locked countries that are not as fortunate to have the same favourable agro ecological and climatic conditions existing in Cameroon. As such, this land locked countries serve both as a permanent and reliable market for food crops from Cameroon. The resilient nature of farmers in Cameroon is remarkable. Despite the increase in the cost of agricultural production and a drop in the price of agricultural products, farmers have continued to farm their lands and have survived by diversifying (MINADER, 2006). In spite of all these potentials, Cameroons agricultural sector is still performing subpar. This is because of: The use of poor yielding varieties (less resistant to pests and diseases) and the poor management of natural resources have led to a decline in production within the agricultural sector. A deficient infrastructure, the lack of continuous and current information exchange and the poor organisations of farmers have made it difficult for farmers in Cameroon to market their products. Not only are there no appropriate institutions to train farmers but the fact that only the ageing population is interested in farming makes it difficult for Cameroons agricultural sector to be competitive. The necessary information on the latest management and farming skills are also missing (MINADER, 2006). 5

14 The steady decline of agricultural production over the years makes it difficult for most farmers to make enough profit from farming. As a result, there is very little capital available to re-invest in the farm and other external sources of finance are quite limited. 2.2 Political framework conditions Below, the different policies (in the agricultural and energy sector) affecting agricultural production, are closely examined Agricultural sector The main objectives of the present agricultural policy are (MINADER, 2006); 1) To reduce poverty especially in rural areas, 2) Improve on the level of food security, 3) Ameliorate the management of natural resources and finally 4) To enlarge the agricultural market Figure 2 shows the relationship between the specific objectives of the agricultural policy and the strategies currently implemented by the government of Cameroon, to attain the desired goals. The strategy aimed at developing in a sustainable way the production of agricultural commodities has its goal to increase by twofold, the production of the main agricultural products by This will be done by creating programs that enable farmers to acquire the latest farming technologies in order that they can improve on their yields. Furthermore, these programs will make available to farmers the necessary machines or tractors needed to increase their farming area. 6

15 Figure 2: Relationship between the objectives and strategies OBJECTIVES Improve on the food security situation STRATEGIES Develop in a sustainable way the production of agricultural products Contribute more to the economy through exports and job creation Increase the revenue of producers Manage in a sustainable way, the natural resources Encourage development at community or local levels Improve on the living standards of the rural population Improve on the management of natural resources Create financial mechanisms that address the needs of farmers Create jobs and provide agricultural training Minimize the risks of food insecurity Develop the necessary institutional frame works Source: MINADER,

16 In order that the natural resources are sustainably managed, suggestions on how to use the land in an optimal way by maintaining the soil fertility and better managing water resources will be provided to farmers. The government intends to increase by 50% the construction of new houses or community houses that will encourage people to stay and help in the development of rural areas. They also have as goal to improve on the conditions of existing roads and build new roads with a target of 1500 km of road per year. Considering the fact that most farmers do not make enough profit that will enable them to re-invest in their farms, the government intends to make available credits specifically tailored to the needs of these farmers. The ministry of agriculture also intends to create about 15,000 new jobs within the agricultural sector, especially for youths. They also plan to restructure the educational system within agricultural institutions, making them up to date, so that they can tackle future challenges. They intend to provide training to about 30,000 farmers per year. In order to contain the food insecurity risks, special programs will be implemented within the risk zones to increase food production. Also, an alert system will be in place within these vulnerable zones to detect early signs of food insecurity so that it can be dealt with appropriately. Finally, the government not only plans to create new institutions to deal with new challenges, but also intends to reinforce the ability of the existing public and private institutions to deal with the existing drawbacks within the agricultural sector. Given that there is a positive correlation between energy consumption and agricultural yields (FAO, 2000), the strategies aimed at improving agricultural transport and offering the latest farming technologies (drying equipment and irrigation pumps) to farmers, are all part of a policy intended to improve the level of energy consumption within the agricultural sector. 8

17 A point not sufficiently emphasized within this agricultural policy, is land tenure. The land tenure system in Cameroon has changed over time, as a result of colonial regimes, from the Germans, through to the French and the British. Just before independence in 1960, the territorial assembly under Law No of 17 June 1959, tried to re-establish the legitimacy of customary land rights, in order to gain the support of traditional leaders and village residents, but the post independence government repealed the 1959 law with Law No of January 1963 (Bruce and Hobbs, 1998). Law No removed the concept of customary land ownership in favour of occupation, and it also repealed the right of collective registration of customary land as was granted by the 1932 French legislation. This law further paved the way for future legislations like Law No of July 1973, which specifically mandates the president to redraft existing tenure legislation. Post independence, three major legislations have been passed regarding land tenure in Cameroon; they are the 1974, 1976 and 1994 legislations (Mansour, 2003). The 1974 and1976 laws have been the main formal tenure regimes. The 1994 legislation, also known as the Forestry, Wildlife and Fisheries Law, nationalized all natural resources, including all plants and trees and even those planted on privately owned forests. This legislation also divided the forest into 2, the national domain and the reserves. Forests under the category of reserves cannot be used for any agricultural purposes, whereas those of the national domain can be used. Article 16 of this legislation, also states that before any entrepreneur carries out any agricultural practice within the forest of national domain, they have to perform an environmental impact assessment. The 1976 legislation specified procedures for registration and outlined conditions for managing state and national lands. The 1974 legislation aimed to replace the traditional land tenure systems with formal land tenure and resource procedures. This was supposed to boost economic growth, through the granting of rights of land ownership through titling to village outsiders such as bureaucrats and entrepreneurs, in opposition to customary traditions, which tend to allocate land to members of the resident social group (Bruce and Hobbs, 1998). This legislation has worked out well in areas were cash crops like cocoa and coffee are the major components of agricultural production. In these areas, land tenure has been increasingly individualized with access to land, determined by the market. In other areas, there has been increasing 9

18 frustrations as community lands have been acquired by outsiders. This has led to protests within some communities for further decentralization of land tenure institutions and the discontinuation of the 1994 forestry, wildlife and fisheries law in favour of customary definitions. In spite of the 1974 Ordinance, the customary definitions of land tenure rights are predominant at the village level. Customary tenure arrangements are considered to be the de facto tenure system in Cameroon (Mansour, 2003), as such, a dual land tenure system currently exists (Mbome, Ndongo, and Poumie, 1995). They are the individuals or state ownerships with thriving land markets in coastal, central and southern Cameroon (particularly in urban areas) and a customary rule of access which is predominant in less inhabited and less commercially oriented rural areas. These rural areas are usually made up of settled, cultivating groups for whom the land is usually entrusted to the village chief, who is often the direct descendant of the first settler. Historically, village chiefs grant use-rights to male heads of household, who then decide upon questions of land access for their extended families. Inheritance of land is typically divided among male heirs. While this pattern tends to be the norm, however, regional and ethnic distinctions certainly exist. In less populated regions where subsistence production dominates, the customary land allocation role performed by village chiefs continues to be the major means of access Energy sector Energy is known to be a major player in agricultural production (UN-Foundation, 2008), as such to better understand Cameroon s agricultural production, it is necessary to have a closer look, at both the agricultural and energy policies and how these two sectors interact. Cameroon has a super abundant potential in the production of hydroelectricity, the second in Africa only to the Democratic republic of Congo (Recipes, 2005). As seen in Figure 3, there are quite a few numbers of hydro electric dams and thermal stations, distributed all over the country. 10

19 Figure 3: Distribution of energy sources Source: Les editions du jaguar,

20 Electricity generation in Cameroon comes from two main sources, notably from hydroelectric and thermal stations. Figure 4 shows the share each source has in the national supply. Figure 4: Sources of electricity in 2005 Source: Based on data from the National institute of statistics (NIS), 2006 Given the large potential to produce electricity, electricity in Cameroon is still not the most used source of energy. This limited access is partly as a result of the high cost of subscription from the main provider. About 5% of the rural population have access to electricity whereas 45%-50% have access in the urban areas (World Bank, 2005). Petroleum is also a major source of energy, with quite a good number of companies currently involved with the marketing and distribution of oil and domestic gas in Cameroon. Figure 5 gives an overview of their respective market shares with respect to a particular commodity. 12

21 Figure 5: Market share of kerosene in 2005 Source: Based on data from NIS, 2006 The solar energy potential is quite good, but wind energy has been found to have a very limited potential in Cameroon (World Bank, 2005). Wood is still the main source of energy in Cameroon (see Figure 6). Besides being used for cooking, it is also used for drying crops. Figure 6: Energy sources within Cameroonian households Source: World Bank, 2005 This traditional form of energy (wood) is used by all social demographics of the population (see Table 1). Its use is more prominent among the poorer section of the population. This is 13

22 partly due to the fact that, they have no other source of energy and cannot afford a different type of energy source. Table 1: Relationship between household incomes and their cooking energy Households Wood Domestic gas Kerosene Others 20% of poorest 98.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 20% of poorer 94.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.7% 20% of poor 89.4% 4.5% 4.9% 1.2% 20% of richer 78.4% 10.3% 10.0% 1.3% 20% of richest 48.9% 33.4% 14.4% 3.3% Source: World Bank, 2005 Poor investment in Cameroon s energy sector over the past ten years has made it difficult, for the sector to contribute meaningfully to the economic growth of the country (Figure 7). Given the importance of agriculture to the country, the level of energy consumption within the agricultural sector, is relatively low (FAO, 1995). The effects of this low energy consumption cannot be minimized, given that there is a positive correlation between energy consumption and agricultural yields (FAO, 2000). In Cameroon, the different energy options have not been fully exploited because besides the use of wood, hydro power, crude oil and sometimes solar energy, there is no other energy from renewable sources being used for agricultural purposes. In an attempt to address this problem and other challenges facing the energy sector, the government of Cameroon in collaboration with the World Bank and the United Nations development program, have come up with a national energy policy document. The policy has a dual purpose: addressing the problems of the energy sector and at the same time enabling Cameroon meet the millennium development goals. 14

23 Figure 7: Direct contribution of the energy sector to the economic growth Source: World Bank, 2005 The main objective of the policy is to make energy both affordable and accessible, to the poorer section of the population. Some specific objectives to be implemented over the next ten years include: Reducing the use of wood for cooking in favour of domestic gas Identifying and supporting micro hydroelectric projects in isolated rural areas Reducing the energy bills for households and institutions Supporting small and medium sized enterprises which are active in the energy sector Creating an environment favourable for the implementation of modern sources of energy, which could boost economic growth and Explore pilot micro projects which can help the energy sector and also reduce poverty 15

24 2.3 Economic performance of the agricultural sector As observed in Figure 8, agriculture and forestry account for 19% of Cameroon s GDP. This is a growth of 3% as compared to Figure 8 : Contribution of the different sectors to the 2006 GDP Source: OECD (2008) This sector was expected to expand by 3.8% in 2007 and forecasted to be 4.5% in This growth is primarily driven by the forestry and food crops subsectors, which have benefited from extension programs and the opening of cross-border roads (OECD, 2008). Food crop production grew by approximately 4% in 2007 and is expected to increase by 4.5% in 2008, provided there are favourable weather conditions. In 2007, the performance of cash crops (which accounts for 1% of the GDP) varied, with Cocoa production increasing by 4.5%, as a result of new plantations reaching maturity and world prices recovering (ibid). Coffee production was low, and farmers abandoned it for short-cycle crops, which are regarded as better return on investment. Rubber production rose in 2007 by an estimated 6.9% because weather conditions were favourable and world rubber prices rose by 43.2%. Cotton output fell in 2007 by an estimated 21.2%, due mainly to the low world prices which reduced both the earnings and the area under cultivation of cotton producers. Banana production has also declined since 2004, falling by 6.2% in Some growers have switched to pineapples because of uncertainty over the opening of the 16

25 European market to dollar bananas, produced by three US multinationals having a dominant 60% share of the world market. Industrial palm oil production grew by 8.3 %. Excluding good weather conditions, two factors account for this increase: production from new plantations, both small and large, and good performance of production facilities (OECD, 2008). The agro-food industry experienced slower growth (1.1% in 2007) than other manufacturing industries (2.1%). Cameroonian food products, such as edible oils, chocolate, pasta and canned goods, face strong competition vis-à-vis Asian products. Sugar production dropped by 6.2% in 2007, while cocoa and cottonseed oil production both fell by 4.1%. On a positive note, beers and carbonated beverages gained (up by 3.5% in 2007) after two consecutive years of downturn. 2.4 Environmental impacts of agriculture Land degradation and deforestation are the main effects that agriculture has on the environment in Cameroon (UNEP, 2008). During the 1972 Green Revolution, the government encouraged the use of chemical inputs. With the subsidies and credits, many farmers shifted towards producing export crops and became heavily dependent on external inputs. As a result of the economic crisis in the early nineties, these credits and subsidies were stopped. Consequently, most farmers could not afford the inputs on which they had based their cultivation. In those areas where the heavy use of external inputs was common, soils lost their fertility. It is worth noting that of all the commercialized fertilizers currently being used in Cameroon, 90% is being consumed by big agricultural exploiters who only occupy between 5-7% of the cultivated land (Jaza, 2005). The urban-rural migration, induced by the economic crisis of the nineties, coupled with an increase in population, has reduced the availability of land within certain communities. As is the tradition in some communities in Cameroon, women are not allowed to own land (Bruce and Hobbs, 1998) and they are the main producers of food crops. In areas where traditional shifting agriculture is predominantly practiced, both the urban-rural migration and the limited capacity of women to access bigger lands have dramatically reduced the fallow periods or in worst cases have become non-existent. Thus, soil fertility in the cleared areas suffers and cannot recover to optimal levels, prompting the use of the slash-and-burn farming systems, which contributes to deforestation. 17

26 A vast majority of crops are derived from individual smallholder farms, as such there is a significant competition in the demand for agricultural and forestland for crop production (Benhin and Barbier, 1999). Tenure arrangements and institutions do also contribute to deforestation. Farmers in forest frontier areas have few rights to the timber trees found in the land they work on, except the right to use some for individual and domestic purposes (Benhin and Barbier, 1999). Because, they neither receive any timber royalties earned from harvesting on their lands nor receive compensations if felled trees should destroy their crops, they are therefore keen to remove such trees because they feel their crops will do better without them, considering the negative effects of maintaining the trees. 18

27 3 Methods and analytical approach This chapter is divided into three main parts. The first part focuses both on the description of the study area and the selection of the different study sites. Within the first section, information on the type of data, the instruments used in collecting the data and those interviewed is also presented. The second and last sections describe the conceptual framework, the parameters used in analysing the collected data and the short comings of the research. 3.1 Description of study area Cameroon is located on the Central West African coast, bordered to the west by Nigeria, the north by Chad, the east by the Central African Republic, and to the south by Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. She lies between longitudes 8 and 16 east of the Greenwich Meridian and between latitudes 2 to 13 north of the equator (Jaza, 2005). This location accounts for the inter-tropical climates (equatorial climates) and tropical climates present in the country (Appendix B). There are four distinct seasons in the south and central regions of Cameroon, with the long dry seasons from December till March, the long wet season from September to December, the short dry season in August and the short wet seasons between March and June (Jaza, 2005). The North also has two distinct seasons: a dry season from November to April and a wet season from May to October. Yearly average temperature is between 20 to 28 C Selection of study site In order to have a better understanding of farmers and their problems, without applying any prior categorisation that may limit the research (Fontana and Frey, 1994) a detailed research on farmers producing potential bio-energy crops was carried out in 4 of the 10 regions of Cameroon. There are the South West and Littoral regions where oil palms are grown; the North West and West regions where rice and maize are cultivated. These four regions were chosen because they produce some of the potential energy crops. 19

28 3.1.2 Data collection The data was collected both from primary and secondary sources. For the primary sources, structured and semi structured questionnaires were the major instruments for gathering the data. The primary data was obtained through expert and farm interviews. A semi-structured questionnaire was used for the expert interviews, with the target groups being politicians or government workers, managers of companies producing energy crops, nongovernmental organizations currently involved in agriculture and researchers. The questions in the expert questionnaire (Appendix C) was focused on: the energy sector in Cameroon, the effect of the recent rise in oil prices, the possibility of bio-energy production, possible uses of bioenergy, its potential sources and impacts and the future projections of yield and agricultural land. In total 22 experts were interviewed. At the farm level, a purposive stratified random sampling technique was used. The strata were the selected provinces. Within the selected province, the sub stratums were the crops grown. In most cases, the crops were potential energy crops. The researcher visited the selected farmers at their homesteads / farmsteads and collected detailed information on their socio-economic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, household size, level of education), farming systems, and information related to farming experience, crops cultivated and area, sources of seeds, production constraints, production and use, cash expenditure, family labour input, and marketing outlets, etc In all, 13 crop farmers were interviewed in the selected provinces and for the selected crops. The secondary sources of data were mainly from the reports of; the ministries of agriculture and rural development, the ministry of state property and land tenures and the ministry of the environment and forestry. Also, research reports both from research institutes and the national institute of statistics were collected. The data collected ranged from agricultural policies, through national production to national imports and exports. FAO statistical data were also consulted, with most of the data limited to a five year period, ranging from 2000 to This is because these were the most current data. 20

29 3.2 Data analysis Data from the expert and farmers interview were both qualitative and quantitative. The data from the farmer s interview was mostly quantitative. These data were processed and analyzed using mathematical methods such as percentages and graphical representations, in order to have current information on the situation of farmers in Cameroon, such as their income levels and production problems. In analysing the data from the expert interviews, mostly graphics and frequency counts were used. Quantitative data, especially those on the national food production and food imports and exports were analyzed using mathematical methods. Most of these data were limited to a five year period, ranging from 2000 to The averages and the trends within this five year period, served as the bases for the estimation of current potentials. Future estimates on yield, land use change and per capita consumption are all based on FAO estimates of world agriculture towards 2015 and Conceptual frame work For the research, the agricultural potential is defined as the potential for bio-energy sources to be produced, provided that the current and future consumption (food/feedstuff) of some potential bio-energy crops have been achieved. In evaluating the agricultural potential, much emphasis is given on the possible land area (after food production) that could be used in the cultivation of energy crops using the current technical possibilities. The important crops or potential bio-energy crops considered in the research include: cereals, groundnuts, soybeans, palm oil fruits and sugar cane. The matrix used to summarize the conceptual frame work of the research is an adaptation from Thraen et al (2006). The available agricultural land, the agricultural policy, the yield increases, the population development and consumer behaviour are the different input quantities used to derive the present and future land area required for energy crop cultivation (see Figure 9). 21

30 Figure 9: Matrix used in calculating the potential areas for energy crops Input quantities Available Agricultural land Agricultural Policy Yield increases Population Development Consumer Behavior Animal Plant Plant Animals Demand for foodstuffs Calculation quantities Reduction of Surplus Plant Animal Required area for Foodstuff production Output quantities Usable areas for energy crop cultivation Source: Adapted from Thraen et al. (2006) 22

31 With the available agricultural land area known, the amount of fallow land or the usable area that could be used for energy crop cultivation is calculated using the formula below: Lf = La (CLp + PLp) where Lf is fallow land, La is agricultural land, CLp is permanent cultivated cropland and PLp is permanent pasture land. Cameroon s agricultural policy has as one of its goals, to increase the farm area in order to supply most of the country s food demand. We take this into consideration in calculating the usable areas for energy crop cultivation. The assumption is made that the country s agricultural policy is aimed at self sufficiency and is determined to reduce export and import surpluses of plant and animal products. In case of an export surplus (for crops for which Cameroon has no comparative advantage) some of the permanent cultivated land area occupied by these crops, is assumed to be given up as land that could be used to cultivate energy crops. For crops which Cameroon has a comparative advantage in production, an export surplus will not result in the permanently cultivated land area occupied to be given up. This is because farmers are better off producing these crops. With an import surplus (even for crops for which Cameroon has a comparative advantage) some of the fallow land that could be used to cultivate energy crops is reduced to make up for the insufficiency. Calculations on the quantity of land foregone or retained from the fallow land either because of import or export surpluses is aided by the values of the respective yields from the plant and animal productions. Yields for plants and animal production, from the current available crop and animal production data help determine the amount of area for feedstuff or foodstuff that is required to make up for either an import or export surplus. The present and future estimates of the yield could either decrease or increase the usable area for energy crops. 23

32 The population development refers to the rate of change of population over time, while the consumer behaviour shows the per capita consumption patterns for plants and animals 1. These two factors together help determine the total food consumption. With the total food consumption or the demand for foodstuff known, the present and future area required for foodstuffs or feedstuffs is determined. This is done by taking into consideration the changes in the rates of per capita consumption, population changes, the rate of yield change and the rate of land use change. The results of the present or future area required for foodstuffs or feedstuffs would either increase or decrease the usable area needed to cultivate energy crops Analysis and projections In order to better calculate the present and estimate the future potential for bio-energy production using the matrix in Figure 9, the following assumptions were made: Cultivated land, fallow land, harvest volume, average yields, imports, exports, degree of self-sufficiency of agricultural products for food production, agricultural land, population, and per capita consumption are based on official statistics (both national and FAO statistics). Also, natural forests and other wildlife areas are excluded from the present estimates. Land either made available for bio-energy sources, as a result of overproduction or taken away from the available land that could be used for bio-energy sources and as a result of under production, is calculated from the import-export surplus balance. Cane 2 production, is converted to potential land made available for sugar cane production, using the average sugar cane yield. Surplus production of milk and dairy products are converted to whole milk equivalents.1kg butter = 20 kg and 1 kg cheese = 10 kg of whole milk equivalent (Thraen et al, 2006). It is worth noting that import surpluses for pork and poultry are considered a reduction in the potential land for bio-energy sources. To get the land available for bio-energy sources from dairy and beef production, the roughage area (only grassland) is allocated to dairy, beef production, goats and sheep etc. This is done by using defined livestock units of the animal stock. The stock of livestock units consists of dairy cows, heifers over two years old, female cattle one 1 Animal consumption, is also considered because some of the food crops under consideration are used as feed 2 A factor of 8.62 is used to convert sugar to sugar cane (1ton sugar = 8.62 ton sugar cane). (This cane sugar ratio is derived from the newsletter of the South African cane growers association. This is because no reliable data could be obtained for the cane to sugar ratio in Cameroon.) 24

33 to two years old and female calves are allocated to milk production and veal calves, bull calves, male cattle one to two years old, male cattle over two years old, slaughter heifers and other cows for beef production. Available roughage area is distributed to dairy, beef and other animals including other grazers (sheep and goats). This information helps in converting milk export or import surpluses to land either made available for bio-energy sources or acquired from the fallow land that could be used by bio-energy sources. Feed savings due to improvements in feed conversion compared to a standard are based on the assumption that feed conversion in pork and poultry production has seen a comparatively uniform annual increase of approximately 0.5 % (Thraen et al, 2006). With, 3.75 times the amount of grain required for pork and 1.8 times as much required for poultry production (Thraen et al, 2006). Overall feed grain savings are converted for 2010 and 2020 to land made available for bio-energy sources taking into account the expected increase in yield at respective points of time. Land would be overestimated if the increase in yield were not taken into account. The effect of the changing population and per capita consumption is calculated by adding the rates of change of both. A positive balance indicates increased consumption and a decrease in the potential for bio-energy sources. This rate of change is adjusted using the change in yield factor because higher land yields are achieved in the projection of 2010 and 2020 potentials and because failing to correct for yield would underestimate the potential land made available for bio-energy sources. The future bio-energy production potential is determined by the following variables: Food consumption. Depending on the changes in population and per capita consumption, higher consumption decreases and lower consumption increases the potential for bio-energy sources. Expected re-designation of land. Any expected re-designation of land either for nature conservation or roads reduces the potential for bio-energy sources. An increase in arable land use as a result of deforestation increases the potential for bioenergy sources. Crop production. Increasing yields in crop production boosts the potential for bioenergy sources. 25

34 Animal production. Increased efficiency in animal production, reduces the amount of feed required, as such, increases the potential of bio-energy sources. The aggregated future potential of increased or decreased bio-energy production potential depends on the overall total of these variables. The resulting potential areas that can be used for bio-energy production are grouped as arable land and grassland using available statistical data. The land potentials for bio-energy sources are divided into arable land and grassland because; some animal products such as milk and beef are produced more on grassland than arable land. Consequently, grassland that is no longer needed could be converted to arable land. This division helps in calculating the present potential area of grassland that can be used for bio-energy production. The future potential area that can be used for bio-energy production is also determined by using information on the rate of grassland re-designation or increase in grassland due to land use change, total food consumption of bio-energy sources derived from grassland and the yield increase on grasslands 3.3 Short comings of the research The availability of the necessary country data was the biggest hurdle in carrying out the research. The absence of data for crop production, animal production, food consumption and import and export data were the main reason why in some cases, FAO data was used either solely or in conjunction with the available country data. Also, due to inadequate data a fewer number of crops were covered in the research, with noticeably starchy roots (a major food source) left out. 26

35 4 National food supply versus food demand Within this chapter, the quantities produced and demanded for the food crops under consideration is studied, in order to know if; the agricultural sector over the past years has been able to meet up with the demand for these important food crops. 4.1 Supply from the agricultural sector Below, data on the available agricultural land area and the yearly growth in crop and animal products are presented Available land area for agriculture Cameroon has a surface area of about 47.6 million hectares (475, 650sq.km). The mainland and maritime surface area occupies about 98% and 2% respectively, of the overall surface area. According to FAO estimates, 9.16 million hectares of the mainland area, is potential agricultural land of which, 2 million hectares, is permanent pasture land. The overall potential agricultural land area minus the value of the permanent pasture land equals 7.16 million hectares of potential arable land. Table 2 below gives approximate values on the surface areas covered by the permanent crop land and fallow land both of which make up the arable land area. Table 2: Arable land area in 2006 Type of Land In hectares Permanent crop land 1 3,966,778 Fallow land 2 3,193,222 Arable land 7,160,000 1 This value is the result of a six year ( ) average of area harvested 2 This value is derived by subtracting the value of the permanent crop land from that of the arable land Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 Below (Figure 10) is an overview of the composition of the total agricultural land area. 27

36 Figure 10: Agricultural land area in 2006 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, Crop production Over the past years, the areas harvested for the important energy crops, either as feed or food has been on the rise. As can be seen in Table 3, cereals and groundnuts have the highest average harvested surface areas. The average annual growth rates for the areas harvested for cereals 3 and palm oil fruits are about 9.7% each, soy beans is 1.2%, sugarcane 1.8% and ground nuts 2%. Table 3: Yearly harvested surface area for important crops Crops Unit Average(s) Cereals 1000ha Groundnuts 1000ha Soybeans 1000ha Palm oil fruits 1000ha Sugar cane 1000ha Source(s): Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, 2007 In regards to crop production, the majority experienced a raise in production (see Table 4). Cereals have an average annual growth rate of 4%, while ground nuts and soy beans have an annual growth rate of 3.5%. Sugar cane registered the least average annual growth of 1.8% whereas palm oil fruits had the highest average annual growth rate of 6%. 3 Cereals include: maize, sorghum, rice, millet and wheat 28

37 Table 4: Annual production of important crops Crops Unit Average(s) Cereals 1000t 1, , , , , , Groundnuts 1000t Soybeans 1000t Palm oil fruits 1000t Sugar cane 1000t 1,350 1,400 1,400 1,450 1,450 1,410 Source(s): Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, 2007 From the data in Table 5, the yields for cereals and palm oil fruits have been dropping over the past years, partly as a result of poor weather conditions. Cereals decreased by an annual average of 4.4% and palm oil fruits by 3.6%. On the other hand, the yields for ground nuts and soybeans grew by an annual average of 1.7% and 4.2% respectively, but sugar cane remained constant. The rate of change of the weighted means of the different yields grew by 0.18% annually. Table 5: Yearly yields of important crops Crops Unit Average(s) Cereals t/ha Groundnuts t/ha Soybeans t/ha Palm oil fruits t/ha Sugar cane t/ha Total t/ha Weighted mean 4 t/ha Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, Animal production Over time, the stocks of animal have experienced a decline in their growth rates (see Table 6). The herds of cattle (the most important livestock) and goat slumped yearly at an average rate of 8.2% and 9% respectively while the herd of sheep experienced an average annual decline of 10.4%. Due to very limited data on dairy cows, an estimate was made based on previous research and this value is assumed to be constant throughout the study period. The deduction of dairy cows from the stock of cattle facilitates the calculation of different livestock units and their demand for roughage area. 4 The proportion of the individual crop yields in the total, is used in calculating the weighted mean 29

38 Table 6: Evolution of basic stocks Unit Average(s) Cattle 1000herd 3, , , , , ,045.6 Dairy cows 1000herd Non-dairy cows 1000herd 3, , , , , ,785.6 Goats 1000herd 2, , , , , ,245.2 Sheep 1000herd 2, , , , , ,130.5 Source(s): Based on data from NIS, 2006 and FAOSTAT, 2008 As can be seen in Table 7, most of the animal products have experienced very limited variations over the past few years. This could possibly be as a result of a decline in the quantity of basic stocks overtime. As for meat production; beef and chicken are the most produced whereas; cow milk (which is the only milk source) has a fairly constant rate of production. Table 7: Growth in meat and milk production unit Average(s) Cattle meat 1000t Chicken meat 1000t Cow milk, whole, fresh 1000t Pig meat 1000t Sheep meat 1000t Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 Beef production accounts for 45.80% of the livestock units while milk production has 38.88% (Table 8). The other grazers (goats and sheep) accounts for 15.32% of the live stock units. Consequently, 45.80% of the 2 million hectares of land set aside as pasture land is allocated for beef production, while 38.88% is for milk production. A further differentiation of the remaining 15.32% between the other grazers is impossible because of limited data. 30

39 Animal stocks Proportion of cattle without dairy cows 5 Cattle without dairy cows Units 6 Livestock unit definition 7 Milk production Beef production Others Total livestock units Beef calves ,785, , , ,641.1 Calves Male ,785, , , ,101.5 Female ,785, , , ,444.0 Cattle 1-2 years Male ,785, , , ,692.4 female ,785, , , ,424.6 Cattle>2years Male ,785, , , ,965.1 Beef heifers ,785, , , ,853.2 Other heifers ,785, , , ,776.6 Dairy cows 260, , , ,000 Other cows ,785, , , ,119.8 Cattle without dairy cows 1 2,785, ,785, Goats 2,245, , ,520.1 Sheep 2,130, , ,047.6 Total 1,110, ,308, , ,856, Share% Roughage area(ha) 777, , ,400 2,000,000 Table 8: Animal stocks, live stocks and the demand for roughage area in Cameroon 5 These values or proportion keys are based on a similar calculation carried out by Thraen et al for the European Union 6 The units here are for the various animal stocks and are derived by multiplying the proportion key with the number of cattle minus dairy cows 7 The live stock unit definitions come from a similar calculation by Thraen et al for the European Union and when multiplied by the units of animal stock the result are the various livestock divisions (Beef, milk and others). 31

40 4.2 Demand from the agricultural sector Below, the demand for crop and animal products is analysed, in order to get what portion of the national food demand is provided by the local production Export/import surplus in crop production The trade balance from 2000 to 2004 (Table 9) reveals an import surplus for a majority of the crops under consideration. There is also very little surge in the number of imports or exports of most of the crops. A majority of the country s imports within this period came from cereals and refined sugar. Groundnuts and cereals are the sources of most exports. It could be deduced that Cameroon is unable to produce most crops that could be used for bio-energy production and as such it has to import most of them. Table 9: Trade balance for crop production Import(t) 394, , , , ,735 Cereals 8 Export(t) , Difference(t) -394, , , , ,647 Import(t) Soybeans Export(t) Difference(t) Import(t) 6, Ground nuts Export(t) 1, Difference(t) -5, Import(t) 48,593 37,678 55,129 38,048 41,950 Refined sugar Export(t) ,200 Difference(t) -48,579-37,678-54,979-38,046-40,750 Import(t) Palm kernels Export(t) Difference(t) Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, Cereals include; wheat, maize, sorghum, rice milled and millet 32

41 4.2.2 Export/import surplus in animal production Animal products experienced an overwhelming import surplus (Table 10), with the amount of chicken imports surging and contributing the most in the share of imports from animal products. There is very little data on cheese imports and exports, but besides chicken imports, cow milk products also accounts for a good portion of the imports from animal products. Table 10: Trade balance for animal products Cow milk Fresh Butter of Cow Milk Cheese (Skim Cow Milk) Cattle meat Pig meat Chicken meat Import(t) , Export(t) Difference(t) , Import(t) Export(t) Difference(t) Import(t) Export(t) Difference(t) Import(t) Export(t) Difference(t) Import(t) Export(t) Difference(t) Import(t) 13,481 6,717 14,858 21,795 34,397 Export(t) Difference(t) -13,480-6,717-14,856-21,786-34,394 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 There is a very limited amount of animal products being exported, with noticeably very little of beef either imported or exported. However, most of the animal products need to be imported to meet the national demand. As is the case with crop production, the national animal production, is not sufficient to meet the national demand for animal products. 33

42 4.2.3 Consumption patterns As evident in Figure 11, the consumption of cereals is considerably high and its consumption is above a million metric ton yearly. Of the nine food sources under consideration, cereals, whole milk products and sugar rank amongst the top most consumed food sources. Figure 11: Trend in food consumption Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 Cereals, whole milk products, vegetable oils and sugar, have average annual consumption rates of about 5.52%, 2.21%, 2.49% and 6.94% respectively. The consumption of chicken has the highest average growth rate of about 14.52% annually. This was accounted for by a rise in consumption from the year 2002 onwards (see Appendix D). The average annual consumption rate for bovine and pork are amongst the least, with both having values below 1%. 34

43 Ever since the population census in 1987, Cameroon has had only one other population census and that was in Using the estimates from Cameroon s national institute of statistics (NIS), between the years 2000 and 2004, there has been an average annual population growth of about 2.6 % (Figure 12). Figure 12: Population growth Source: Based on estimates from NIS, 2006 From the data in Table 11, a comparison between the consumption rates of the food items under consideration and the corresponding changes in population over the past few years reveals that between 2000 and 2001, there has been a plunge of 0.3% in the total per capita consumption. But, from 2001 to 2002 and 2002 to 2003, the total per capita consumption grew by 0.2% and 3.3% respectively. This indicates that there is a steady but gradual increase from the year 2000 onwards, in the per capita consumption of the different food items under consideration. In conclusion, there has been growth in population, food production and food consumption over the past few years, but in spite of this increases, especially in food consumption, the national food supply has not been able to bridge the food demand and food supply gap. Consequently, a sizable amount of crop and animal products have had to be imported in order to bridge this gap. 35

44 Table 11: Food consumption in Kg/capita/year Food Cereals Vegetable oil Bovine meat Pig meat Poultry meat Eggs Whole milk products Cheese Sugar Grain equivalent(g.e) Food G.E 9 factor Cereals Vegetable oil Bovine meat Pig meat Poultry meat Eggs Whole milk products Cheese Sugar Total Source: Based on data from NIS, 2006 and FAOSTAT, The grain equivalent(g.e) factors are derived from a similar calculation carried out by Thraen et al for the European Union 36

45 5 Estimates and future projections 5.1 Current potentials for bio-energy production Using the import-export balance in Tables 9 and 10, estimates are derived for the land area required either for food or bio-energy production. The quantities for crop or animal products are 5- year averages of the difference between imports and exports (see Appendix E and F). A negative quantity signifies an import surplus and a positive one an export surplus. A negative value for land area indicates the amount of land which would be subtracted from the potential area that could be used for bio-energy production, to meet food demands. A positive value for land area would mean the reverse. With a majority of import surpluses from crop production, some of the potential land allotted for bio-energy production (fallow land), would have to be reduced to make up for food production. Based on the calculations in Table 12, about 351,052 hectares of land will have to be reduced from the fallow land to make up for the under production of the important food crops. Table 12: Export (+)/Import (-) surplus in crop production Quantity(t) 1/Average yield(t/ha) Land area(ha) 10 Cereals , ,899.8 Soy beans Groundnuts -1, ,537.8 Sugar cane -360, ,085.3 Palm kernels Total(s) -883, ,051.7 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, 2007 From Table 13, there are 8,743 tons of import surpluses for whole milk equivalents, with no data for the import or export of cheese. As a result of the import surpluses about 52,283ha of land would have to be reduced from the fallow land, to make up for the deficiency in milk production. 10 Land area= Quantity x 1/Average yield 11 Cereals include: wheat, maize, sorghum, rice milled and millet 12 1metric ton of refined sugar = 8.62 ton of sugar cane 37

46 Table 13: Export (+)/Import (-) surplus in animal production Milk -923 Butter -7, Cheese 0 Quantity(t) 1/Average yield(t/ha) Land area(ha) Total(s) -8, ,283.1 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, 2007 Previous calculations in Table 7 show that the average total milk production in Cameroon is 130,000tons, with an import surplus of 8,743 tons; the percentage of under production equals 6.72%. Similarly, in Table 14, there are 18,655 tons of import surpluses of meat, with most of the import surpluses coming from chicken. Table 14: Export (+)/ Import (-) surplus in meat production Quantity(t) 1/Average yield(t/ha) Land area(ha) Beef Pork -395(-1, ) Chicken -18,247(-32, ) ,706.8 Total(s) -18,655-20,725.6 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, 2007 Using the cereal equivalents for pork and chicken, about 20,726 ha need to be subtracted from the fallow land to cover for feed production. Prior estimates in Table 7 put the total national productions of; beef at 92,160 tons, chicken at 28,240 tons and pork at 16,188 tons. Consequently, the percentage of under production for beef, pork and chicken equals 0.014%, 2.44% and 64.61% respectively. From Table 15, the total grassland reduced from the fallow land as a result of under production, equals 52,413 ha. That is 2.62% of the current pasture land and 1.64% of the overall fallow land. 13 Converted to whole milk equivalent(1ton butter = 20ton whole milk equivalent) 14 Data from tables7 and 8 show 130,000t of milk = 777,600ha of roughage area, with yield=0.167t/ha 15 Data from tables7 and 8 show 92,160t of beef = 916,000ha of roughage area, with yield=0.10t/ha 16 Cereal equivalent(1ton of pork = 3.75ton of cereal) 17 Cereal equivalent (1ton of chicken = 1.8ton of cereal) 38

47 Table 15: Grassland required from fallow land Unit Quantity Total grassland ha 2,000,000 Grassland for milk production ha 777,600 Under production of milk % 6.72 Quantity subtracted as a result of under production ha -52,283 Grassland for beef production ha 916,000 Under production of beef % Quantity subtracted as a result of under production ha -130 Total grassland subtracted ha -52,413 The above as % of grassland % 2.62 The above as % of fallow land % 1.64 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, 2007 Putting all the previous calculations into perspective; the data in Table 16 below shows that as of 2005/2006, 424,061 ha is needed from the total fallow land, to sustain food demand changes. So, about 2,769,161 hectares of land will be left as potential land that could be used for the production of bio-energy as of 2005/2006. This potential area for bio-energy production represents 30.23% of the potential agricultural land area in Cameroon. Table 16: Potentials for bio-energy sources in 2005/2006 Resources Land area(ha) % of potential agricultural land Fallow land 3,193, Reduction of under production Crop production -351, Milk -52, Animal production Beef Pork Chicken -19, Balance of potential area 2,769,161 Potential agricultural land 9,160,000 Balance as a % of potential agricultural land 30.23% 30.23% Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT,

48 5.2 Changes in yield, land and per capita consumption Agricultural land in sub Saharan Africa is projected to increase between the years 2000 and 2030 (FAO, 2002 and Rosegrant, M.et al, 2001). FAO projects an increase by 0.72% yearly between this period. Land expansion would result mainly because of shifting cultivation and deforestation. Specific values on the projected land expansion or land re-designation in Cameroon are difficult to come by, but what is evident in Cameroon is that, deforestation is still going on and will continue, and there is no government policy in place, aimed at reducing the agricultural land. Instead, Cameroons agricultural policy encourages the expansion of agricultural land. Even though Cameroon has unused agricultural land potentials, more potential land is expected to become available, as a result of deforestation. Based on FAO estimates (Appendix F), the changes in crop yield, is expected to increase by 15.21% between and 2010 and by 12% between 2010 and 2020 (using the weighted mean of the important crops in Table 17). As such, there is an expected slowdown in yield increase as we approach Specific estimates on yield increases in Cameroon is difficult to come by, because, it also depends on the performance over time of the agro research unit of the country. Table 17: Projected trend in the yields of developing countries 18 Unit Cereals t/ha Sugar cane t/ha soybeans t/ha Groundnuts t/ha Total t/ha Weighted mean t/ha Source: Own calculation Using FAO estimates (Appendix F), the per capita food consumption in sub Saharan Africa (Cameroon inclusive) will grow by 10.60% between and 2010 and by 8.71% between 2010 and 2020(Table 18). The consumption of both bovine meat and milk products is also expected to grow by 10.10% between and 2010 and by 8.34% between 2010 and According to the United Nations population division s report in 2008, 18 China is excluded from the group of developing countries 19 The values below are derived from a three year average of 1997,1998 and

49 Cameroon s population is projected to grow by 25.8% between 2000 and 2010 and by 22% between 2010 and Table 18 : Food consumption in kg/capita/year in sub Saharan Africa 20 Food Cereals sugar(raw equivalent) vegetable oils(oil equivalent) Bovine meat(carcass weight equivalent) pork(carcass weight equivalent) poultry(carcass weight) Milk and dairy(fresh milk equivalent)excluding butter Food GE factor Cereals sugar(raw equivalent) vegetable oils(oil equivalent) Bovine meat(carcass weight equivalent) pork(carcass weight equivalent) poultry(carcass weight) Milk and dairy(fresh milk equivalent)excluding butter Total Source: Own calculation 5.3 Estimates of feed grain savings The negative values in Table 19 below, indicates the amount of grain saved or land released as a result of a 0.5% annual improvement in feed conversion. Between 2010 and 2020, there would be a 50% increase in the amount of land released as a result of improved feed conversion both in pork and poultry production. Overall, in 2010 and 2020, 3,084 ha and 6,167 ha respectively will be made available for other purposes. 20 Cameroon is one of the countries in sub Saharan Africa, studied in the FAO report 41

50 Table 19: Land released due to improved feed conversion Product Basis Pork(t) 16,140.0 Feed grain consumed(t) 21 60, , ,052.5 Land equivalent(ha) 22 37, , ,782.8 Poultry(t) 21,200.0 Feed grain consumed(t) 23 38, , ,816.0 Land equivalent(ha) 22 23, , ,385.0 Total land equivalent(ha) 61, , ,167.8 Source: Based on data from FAOSTAT, 2008 and AGRISTAT, Summary of changes from 2010 to 2020 The absolute agricultural land in 2005/2006 was 9.16 million hectares, and from the calculations in Table 20, in 2010 and 2020, about 700,000 and 600,000 hectares respectively would be made available due to land use change. 3.2 million hectares and 2.7 million hectares would be required respectively in 2010 and 2020 to meet the projected increase in food demand. As a result of an increase in yield, 1.3 million hectares and 1 million hectares of land will be made available in 2010 and 2020 for other purposes. An additional 0.5% of land would be made available annually, as a result of improved feed conversion. In 2005/2006, 2.7 million hectares was the potential area for bio-energy sources, but after balancing the projected agricultural land in Table 20, it proves that there will be no new potential for bio-energy sources in 2010 and But rather, 1.1 and 1 million hectares will be required in 2010 and 2020 respectively to meet up with the increase in food demand. This reduces the future bio-energy production potential. Subtracting, the future land area necessary for food production from the current (2005/2006) potential for bio-energy production shows that the potential areas for bio-energy sources in 2010 and 2020 will be 1.6 million hectares and 600,000 hectares respectively. These potential areas in 2010 and 2020 represent 18% and 6.78% respectively of the agricultural land in Conversion rate :3.75t cereal=1t of pork 22 1ha=1.60t of cereal 23 Conversion rate : 1.8t cereal=1t of poultry 42

51 Table 20: Balance of all changes / Absolute population(million) 15,865,000 19,958,000 24,349,000 Changes up to (%) Per capita consumption(g.e) Changes up to (%) Changes in consumption (%) Potential agricultural land (ha) 9,160,000 9,885,472 10,544,992 Land use change up to (%) Yield(t/ha) Increase in yield up to (%) Land released due to land use change(ha) 725, ,972.0 Balance of agricultural land 24 Land subtracted due to changes in food demand(ha) -3,241, ,743,567.2 land released due to yield increase(ha) 1,393, ,099,200.0 land released due to improved feed conversion(ha) 25 2, ,438.0 Increase(+)/Decrease(-) bio-energy potential..(ha) -1,119, ,027,957.2 Potential for biomass in ha for the year. 2,769, ,649, ,246.2 The above as % of the available agricultural land in The values are calculated by multiplying the projected % change by the potential agricultural land in 2006 (9,160,000ha) 25 The portion contributed by an increase in yield has been subtracted 43

52 In order to know what portion of the overall land needed for food or bio-energy production is contributed by grassland, we assume that the percentage of grassland in the freed up land, due to land use change, is the same as that in the total agricultural land in Based on this assumption, of all the land freed up in 2010 and 2020, about 158,000 and 133,000 hectares respectively is grassland (Table 21). By 2010, there will be a 35.91% rise both in the population and the consumption of bovine meat and milk products. Consequently, 608,000 hectares of land will be needed to match up the growing food demand. Table 21: Changes in the demand for grassland 2005/ Rate of change in population (%) Rate of change in bovine and milk consumption (%) Change in consumption (%) Increase in crop yield up to (%) Balance of grassland 28 Land withdrawn(-) because of the demand for milk and beef (ha) -608, ,921 Land released(+) due to yield increase (ha) 257, ,232 Share of grassland in land released because of land use change (ha) , ,375 Total changes in grassland (ha) -52, , ,314 The above as % of extra land needed for food in year Accumulated grassland needed for food (ha) -244, ,884 The above as % of total grassland in Projected from the year Projected from the averages of the years The balance is calculated by multiplying the % of the projected changes by the amount of grassland needed in 2005/2006( 1,693,600ha) for beef and milk production 29 The share of grassland is assumed to remain the same (21.83%) throughout and this percentage is multiplied by the total land released (table 20) in the corresponding years 30 This is the extra grassland needed in 2005/2006 due to under production (table 15) 44

53 Due to yield increases in the grassland, 257,000 hectares will be freed up in 2010 and a further 203,000 hectares by In net terms, in 2010 and 2020, there will be no potential area from grassland areas that could be used for bio-energy production. Of the overall land needed to meet the future food demand in 2010 and 2020, 17.15% and 17.24% respectively, will be grassland areas. The accumulated grassland in 2020 totals 421,000 hectares; this is 21.09% of the grassland area in Conclusively, from 2010 onwards, no new potential areas for bio-energy sources will be available, but cumulatively, there will be potential areas for bio-energy sources beyond

54 6 Potential impact of bio-energy expansion In the course of this research, politicians, managers of companies producing energy crops, researchers and NGO s involved with agriculture were interviewed. Most agreed that the 2008 hike in oil prices was felt in more than one sector in Cameroon. As evident in Figure 13, most experts think this price rise has had a negative effect on the living standards, the transportation sector and the energy sector in Cameroon. A majority of them believe the transport sector has been hit most, with an observed drop in the frequency of travel and some car owners force to switch from gasoline to diesel. Figure 13: Impact of rise in crude oil prices Source: Own analysis A good majority of experts also think that because of the hike in oil prices, the use of fertilisers has dropped, and as a consequence; more fallow land is being used up, there is increased slash and burn and a reduction in cropping cycles. These changes have cumulatively led to increased food prices. Some experts do point out that, the use of organic waste (as fertiliser) by farmers has gone up, with every farmer trying to own at least a livestock, so they can use the droppings as fertilizer. More than 50% of experts surveyed (see Figure 14), sensed that both the government and local institutions are not doing enough to reduce the country s dependence on crude oil, either through better policies, new renewable energy sources or through increased energy 46

55 efficiency. For those who believe something is being done, they point out that there are some small projects ran by NGO s and some vegetable oil producing companies. They are all aimed at producing energy from new renewable sources. They (experts) also go further to state that following the president of Cameroon s commitment in his 2008 New Year speech, to engage in energy production from new renewable sources, his government is currently examining the prospects of producing energy from new renewable sources, in order to diversify the energy pool. Figure 14: Action to reduce crude oil dependence Source: Own analysis With regards to the current importance of some energy sources, more than 60% of experts gave a high rating for energy sources such as; biomass, water power and crude oil (Figure 15), and about the same number of experts, estimate that these three energy sources will be relatively important in the future. A fewer number of experts (when compared with the number who stated that it was important currently) think that biomass would be important in future. This is because, the main biomass source is wood and the government and local NGOs are currently intensifying their efforts to curb deforestation. For other energy sources such as coal, wind power and geothermal power, their current and estimated future importance in Cameroon is low. Natural gas may not change much between now and the future, whereas solar energy is expected to grow in importance in future. 47

56 Figure 15: Current and future (5-10 years) importance of various energy sources Source: Own analysis Concerning the current utilisation and future growth potential of some biomass sources, more than 50% of experts think the current utilisation of jatropha, manure, cassava and sugar cane is considerably low ( Figure 16). More than 80% see the current use of wood, as high, whereas, for palm oil, less than 50% think its use is low. For the future growth potential, more than 50% think wood has a high growth potential with a slightly higher percentage of the opinion that cassava has a low growth potential. For oil palm, the views of the experts are split, but a greater number of experts are of the opinion that sugar cane, manure and jatropha have a high future growth potential with a majority of experts staking for jatropha and manure. 48

57 Figure 16: Current utilization and future (5-10 years) growth potential of some biomass sources Source: Own analysis With regards to whether the current political framework has the potential to facilitate bioenergy production in Cameroon, about 80% of the experts consider it unfit. This is primarily because; there is no well defined government policy to promote this kind of energy program and much has still to be done in terms of improving land ownership rights in Cameroon. As to their views on a large scale bio-energy production in Cameroon, there are mixed responses, with those in favour, doing so on a precondition. As a precondition, they suggest that first, local farming techniques must be improved considerably and then a quota must be set by the government on the amount of land and crops that can be used for bio-energy production, mindful of how much land area and crop production is available for human and animal consumption. For the moderates and sceptics, they prefer the use of non edible crops that are cultivated on marginal sites. Summarily, majority of the experts all agree that, a large scale expansion could displace food production, help in the investment of infrastructures, help develop marginal sites, improve on farm income and finally increase soil intensification and land expansion (see Figure17). Very few think that any expansion could increase water scarcity or rural poverty. 49

58 Figure 17: Potential effect on domestic agriculture of a bio-energy expansion Source: Own analysis Small holder farmers in Cameroon (especially those producing bio-energy crops) are faced by the following problems; Low soil fertility and insufficient water during the dry season Expensive and inappropriate inputs (fertilizer, pesticides, organic manure) which are also not readily available within the farming locality Limited production credits and poor storage facilities both at farm gate and market Insufficient labour especially in peak periods and Difficulty transporting produce from the farm to the home and inputs from the home to the farm. In spite of all this, a good number of experts are of the opinion that small holder farmers will benefit from a large scale bio-energy production, especially in terms of farm income. Even the sceptics to the idea of a large scale production support this fact, but are at variance on the reliability of the income from bio-energy crops, with the example of coffee as a reference. All or a majority of experts agree that with any advent of a bio-energy market, small holder farmers in Cameroon will neither be sceptical to the idea of producing bio-energy crops or accept it 100 % (Figure 18). They all believe that small holder farmers will diversify and embrace the new crops while producing other crops, with very little migration from the cities. 50

59 Figure 18: Potential behaviour of small scale farmers to a bio-energy market Source: Own analysis As to which crops may be displaced by an expansion in bio-energy production, more than 50% of experts think that cassava, palm oil fruits, cereals and cocoa have a low potential to be displaced (Figure 19). But, more than half the number of experts say coffee may be displaced, because of the instability in the price of coffee at the world market. For some cereals, some experts believe it will be difficult for farmers to reduce their production in favour of bio-energy crops. This is because these cereals form the back bone of their diet. For palm oil fruits besides being used for food, they are also an important component in the local soap factories. 51

60 Figure 19: Potential for crops to be displaced by a bio-energy expansion Source: Own analysis In view of which production and marketing systems are preferable for bio-energy production, a bulk of experts give a high rating for cooperatives and plantations, whereas for contract farming they are evenly split (Figure 20). Neither small scale farming nor the free market has a high rating. Figure 20: Ranking for different production and marketing systems for bio-energy production Source: Own analysis With agriculture currently playing a major role in Cameroons economy, many experts believe this role will remain the same in future with forecasted increases both in yield and the use of fallow land. Also, a majority, support the national usage of bio-energy and preferably for electricity generation, due to the current under performance of the sector. 52

61 Most experts are also not very sure if this new form of energy should be used either as car fuel or for cooking (Figure 21). Figure 21: Probable uses of bio-energy Source: Own analysis 53

62 7 Conclusions The main objective of this research is to determine the future production potential of the agricultural system, if it has to produce bio-energy using some agricultural commodities. Taking into consideration, the current production, yields and food demand, it is estimated as of 2005/2006, that about 2.7 million hectares of land is fallow land or potential land that could be used for the production of bio-energy. This represents about 30.23% of the potential agricultural land in Cameroon. As to the future potential, there is a projected increase in yield, efficiency in animal production and land use change in agriculture. All these variables do increase the potential for bio-energy production far beyond But, the quantity of land made available by these variables is not enough to offset the estimated land required due to increased food consumption from 2010 onwards. Consequently, it is estimated that by 2010 and 2020, no more land will be released from the agricultural sector for bio-energy production, but instead, land will be required to meet, the expected growth in food demand. Thus, the current (2005/2006) potential for bio-energy production by 2010 and 2020 will be reduced, resulting to a lesser but considerable amount of land that could be used for bio-energy production in 2010 and

63 8 Summary of research In Cameroon, the food crisis in the early part of 2008 was an indication of an underlying problem plaguing the national production system. This crisis, highlighted the fact that, the agricultural sector which employs about 70% of the population is neither able to provide food nor income needed, to weather the effects of the rising food prices. As such, there is a need for a more sustainable production system that will not only provide income to the majority of the population who happen to be farmers, but could also enhance the capacity of the government to deal with future crisis. Given the favourable agro climatic condition and the possibility of agricultural land expansion in Cameroon (MINADER, 2006), bio-energy production, could possibly be that sustainable production system required to enhance both the capacity of the government (through exports) and farmers (through improved farm income), to deal with future crisis. Bio-energy production has the potential to affect food security both at the household and national level and it will be important (in the case of Cameroon) to know; the framework conditions that affect agricultural production, the food demand and supply situation, the current and future potential of bio-energy production and the potential effects in case of a bio-energy expansion. Cameroon s agricultural policy has as its main goals to; reduce poverty particularly in rural areas, improve on the level of food security, ameliorate the management of natural resources and finally to enlarge the agricultural market (MINADER, 2006).As one of the strategies, to achieve this goal, the government intends to improve on agricultural transport and offer the latest farming technologies (drying equipment and irrigation pumps) to farmers. In order to transport the farm goods or manage the farming technologies, farmers will need a reliable source of energy. Cameroon has a wide variety of energy sources, ranging from wood energy to solar energy, but outside wood and hydro power, enough is not currently being done to motivate the production of energy for agricultural use from diverse renewable sources. Nevertheless, the national energy policy supports, energy projects or companies that could provide a different form of energy and at the same time help in reducing rural poverty. 55

64 An issue not sufficiently highlighted within the agricultural policy is the land tenure policy. The 1974, 1976 and the 1994 legislations, are the policies governing land tenure in Cameroon. The 1974 legislation, which is the main legislation, was aimed at replacing the traditional land tenure systems with formal land tenure and resource procedures. This legislation has worked out well in areas were cash crops are grown (Bruce and Hobbs, 1998), but even so, a dual land tenure system currently exists in Cameroon (Mbome, Ndongo, and Poumie, 1995) with individual land markets thriving in urban areas while customary rule of access is predominant in rural areas. FAO estimates put the potential agricultural land at 9.16 million and as of 2006, 22% is permanent pasture land, 43% permanent crop land and 35% fallow land. Over the past years, the harvested area for crop production has been on the rise, with cereals and groundnuts having the highest average harvested surface areas. As to the quantity being produced, all crops under consideration experienced a boost, with palm oil fruit production experiencing the highest growth rate. The crop yields overtime has varied. The yields for cereals and palm oil fruits have decreased with that for ground nuts and soybeans rising and sugar cane remaining constant. Animal stocks also experienced declining growth rates over time. The herds of cattle (the most important livestock), goat and sheep slumped at annual average rates of 8.2%, 9% and 10.4% respectively. There have been very little variations as to the quantity of meat or milk being produced. Cameroon s population and food consumption over the past few years has also been on the rise and in spite of the slight gains over time in crop and animal production; the national food supply is still not able to meet the growing food demand. The evidence is that within the last 10 years, there has been an import surplus for a majority of crops and animal products. A majority of crop imports came from cereals and refined sugar. Chicken imports have surged over time and has contributed together with cow milk products, the most in terms of imports from animal products. Based on the available data, Cameroon is a major importer of food, with high levels of under production in crop and animal production. If Cameroon were to become self sufficient and produce all of its food 31 using the current local farming technology, then it will need to use up about 424,061 ha of the available fallow land, to achieve this goal. This is a reduction by about 13%, of the current (2005/2006) fallow land, thus leaving 2,769,161 hectares of fallow land as the current (2005/2006) potential for bio-energy production. The future bio- 31 This involves only the crops under consideration 56

65 energy production potential depends on the variation in food consumption, expected land redesignation and crop and animal yields. According to FAO estimates, there is a projected increase beyond 2010, in the amount of agricultural land, the yields of crop and animal products and the total food consumption. The projected increase in land and yields, raise the future potential for bio-energy production, whereas the increased total food consumption reduces its potential. From own calculations, there will be no new potential for bio-energy sources in 2010 and 2020, but rather, more land will be needed, to meet up with the projected increase in food demand. Balancing the current (2005/2006) potential area for bioenergy production with the future land area required for food reveals that the potential areas for bio-energy sources in 2010 and 2020 will be 1.6 million hectares and 600,000 hectares respectively. These potential areas for bio-energy sources in 2010 and 2020 represent 18% and 6.78% respectively of the potential agricultural land in A good majority of all the experts interviewed in the course of this research, agree that a large scale bio-energy expansion using agricultural products, could possibly displace food production, increase investment in infrastructures, and aid in the development of marginal sites. They also support the fact that, it could improve on farm income, increase soil intensification and land expansion, but will not increase water scarcity or rural poverty. As to how a large scale bio-energy production should be carried out, some experts propose that, local farming techniques first be improved considerably and then a quota set on the quantity of land and crops to be used, mindful of how much land area and crop production is available for human and animal consumption. Others suggest the use of non edible crops that are cultivated on marginal sites. 57

66 9 Résumé de la recherche La crise alimentaire du début de l année 2008 était un indicateur des problèmes structurels affectant le système de production national. Cette crise soutient l idée que le secteur agricole qui emploie plus de 70% de la population n est pas en mesure de procurer le besoin alimentaire non plus le revenu nécessaire pour réduire les effets due a la flambée des prix des denrées alimentaires. Cela implique la nécessite d un système de production plus soutenu qui non seulement assurera un bon revenu a la population mais aussi permettra de bien faire face aux crises futures. Au vue des conditions agro-climatiques favorables et la disponibilité des terres agricole au Cameroun, la production d énergie biologique pourrait être ce système de production soutenu, capable d augmenter la capacité du gouvernement (par l exportation) et des paysans (pas les revenus), à affronter les crises futures. Considérant aussi que la production de l énergie biologique à le potentiel d affecter en général, la sécurité alimentaire nationale et des ménages en particulier. Il est donc important de comprendre le cadre organisationnel affectant la production agricole au Cameroun, l offre et la demande des produits alimentaires, le potentiel actuel et futur et les effets futurs en cas d une expansion de la production d énergie biologique. La politique agricole camerounaise a pour objectif de réduire la pauvreté dans les zones rurales, améliorer la sécurité alimentaire, améliorer la gestion des ressources naturelles et enfin ouvrir la marche des produits agricoles (MINADER, 2006). L une des stratégies envisage par le gouvernement camerounais pour atteindre ce but est d améliorer les infrastructures et les techniques agricoles (matériels de séchages et d irrigation) pour les agriculteurs. Ces agriculteurs auront aussi besoins d une source d énergie sure et fiable afin de pouvoir transporter leur marchandise et aussi de bien faire fonctionner leur outils agricoles. Le Cameroun dispose d un large potentiel d énergie (solaire, hydriques etc.) mais malheureusement a l état actuel, rien n est fait pour utiliser le potentiel dans l usage agricole. Néanmoins, la politique énergétique du Cameroun soutient les projets d énergies ou les compagnies qui pourraient fournir cette énergie alternative et renouvelables et en même temps aider à la réduction de la pauvreté dans les zones rurales. Une question qui na pas du tout été bien élucidée est celle delà politiques foncier. La politiques qui régissent le 58

67 système foncier au Cameroun sont décrites dans les législations des années 1974,1976 et 1994.La principale législation est celle de 1974 ; elle a été décrète afin de remplacer les systèmes fonciers traditionnels avec des procédures formelles. Cette législation a surtout bien fonctionnée dans les régions ou les cultures de rente sont prédominantes (Bruce and Hobbs, 1998). Même si les deux systèmes fonciers (traditionnels et formels) continuent à Co exister malgré le souhait de formaliser le système (Mbomme, Ndongo and Poumie, 1995). Le potentiel agricole est estime à 9.16 million d ha et est reparti comme suit : 22% des terres pour élevage, 43% à la production agricole et 35% en jachère. Pendant les dernières années, la superficie des terre récoltes a significativement augmente avec les céréales et l arachide occupant la plu grande proportion de terre récoltées. Pour ce qui est de la quantité produite, toutes les plantes prises en considération ont connu une augmentation avec la production des noix d huile de palm occupant le plus grand taux d augmentation. Le rendement agricole a connu une variation au fil de temps. Le rendement des céréales et des noix d huile de palm a décru, avec un accroissement des arachides et du soja et la production de la canne à sucre est restée constante. Le stock animal a aussi connu un déclin. Les têtes de bovins, caprins et ovins a décru à un taux annuel de 8.2%, 9% et 10.4% respectivement. La quantité de viande et du lait produite a peu variée. Malgré le peu de gains observe au niveau de la production animale et végétale, la population camerounaise et la consommation n a fait que augmenter au cours de ces dernière années. L approvisionnement alimentaire n est toujours pas en mesure de satisfaire la hausse de la demande. L évidence est que pendant les dix dernières années, il y avait eu un surplus d importation pour la majorité de produits animal et végétal. La majorité des produit importes sont a base des céréales et le sucre raffine. L importation des volailles couple avec les produits laitiers ont augmente au fil du temps et ont le plus contribue a l importation des produits animaux Base sur les données disponibles, le Cameroun est un grand importer des produits alimentaires avec un niveau élevé de sous production animale et végétale. Si le Cameroun doit atteindre l autosuffisance alimentaire 32 avec les technologies locales actuelles, il y aura besoin de mettre en valeur à peu prés 424, 061ha des terres en jachère afin d atteindre ce but. Cela réduire de 13% la superficie des terres en jachère en 2005/2006, laissant 2, 769,161ha de ces terres comme un potentiel de production de l énergie biologiques. Le 32 Ces les plantes sur considération qui sont considèrent 59

68 potentiel futur de production de l énergie biologique dépend de la variation de la consommation alimentaire, la restructuration des terres et du rendement de la production végétale et animale. A l horizon 2010, les estimations de la FAO ont projeté une augmentation des terres agricoles, des rendements agricoles de la production animale et la consommation totale. Cette augmentation projetée des terres et de rendements implique l issue d un potentiel futur de la production de l énergie biologique d on l augmentation de la consommation soulevé la question et/ou l inquiétude sur son potentiel. D après des calculs personnels, il n y aura de nouveau potentiel de production d énergie biologique pour l années 2010 et 2020 mais au contraire il y aura besoin d un peu plus de terres cultivables pour remédier à l augmentation projetée de la demande alimentaire. La différence entre le potentiel actuel (2005/2006) des terres pour la production de l énergie biologique et la demande futur des terres pour la production alimentaire, montre que le potentiel nécessaire pour la production d énergie biologique en 2010 et 2020 sera respectivement 1.6million hectares et 600,000 hectares. Le potentiel de terres pour l énergie biologique en 2010 et 2020 représente respectivement 18% et 6,78% du potentiel de terre agricole en Une bonne majorité des experts interviewe au cours de cette recherche accepte que l extension des terres a large échelle pour la production de l énergie biologique utilisant des produits agricoles, pourra possiblement reculer la production alimentaire, augmenter les investissements sur les infrastructures, et aider a l amélioration des terres marginales. Ils supportent aussi le fait que cela pourra améliorer le revenu des paysans, augmenter l intensification des sols et l extension des terres mais n augmentera pas le problème de l eau et de la pauvreté rurale. Pour la production a grand échelle de l énergie biologique, certains experts ont propose a ce que les techniques agricoles locales soient d abord améliore considérablement et qu un quota soit mis par rapport a la superficie de terre a utiliser tout en ayant en mémoire la superficie nécessaire a la production alimentaire pour la consommation de la population et des animaux. D autres suggèrent l utilisation des plantes non-comestibles cultivées sur des terres marginales. 60

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73 Appendix A: Livestock map of Cameroon Source: Les editions du jaguar,