Estimated Employment Multipliers for the City of Johannesburg

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1 Estimated Employment Multipliers for the City of Johannesburg Undertaken by Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) for The City of Johannesburg Metro 2015 Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 1

2 THE CONTEXT EMPLOYMENT AND INCOMES Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 2

3 Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintil 4 Quintile 5 Estimated Average Monthly Income per Household December 2014 A profile of households in South Africa R 45,000 Household Quintile R 40,000 R 35,000 R 30,000 R 25,000 In kind Income Imputed rental income on owned dwelling Other Income Characteristic Estimated average number of people per household Estimated % of household income earned from employment 1 (Bottom 20%) (Top 20%) % 50% 60% 73% 77% R 20,000 R 15,000 R 10,000 R 5,000 R 0 Income Transfers from Individuals Pensions, Social Insurance, Family allowances Salaries and wages; income from business Estimated % of household income from transfers Estimated % of household income from imputed rent and in-kind income Estimated average monthly income per household December 2014 Implied average monthly income per household member December % 27% 17% 6% 1% 22% 17% 15% 15% 17% R R R R R R 449 R 975 R R R Source of basic data: Stats SA 2010/11 Income and Expenditure Survey, SARB Quarterly Bulletin Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 3

4 Total Employment Index: 1995 = 100 Average Annual Growth in Total Employment: 2003 to 2013 Trends in Metro Employment 170 8% 160 Buffalo City 6% Increasing Labour Intensity Cape Town Ekurhuleni 4% 130 ethekwini 2% 120 Johannesburg 0% 110 Mangaung 100 Msunduzi -2% Nelson Mandela Bay Tshwane -4% NOTE: Bubble size reflects total sector -6% employment in 2013 Decreasing Labour Intensity -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Average Annual Growth in Real GVA: 2003 to 2013 Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 4

5 Nature of employment in Johannesburg in 2013 Composition of total employment in Johannesburg in 2013 Informal 25% Un-skilled formal 25% 1.6 million people employed Highly skilled formal 14% Skilled formal 36% Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks Other non-metal mineral products Electricity Electrical machinery and apparatus Mining and quarrying Transport equipment Textiles, clothing and leather goods Food, beverages and tobacco Furniture and other manufacturing Wood, paper, publishing and printing Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber Agriculture, forestry and fishing Communication Metals, metal products, machinery and Catering and accommodation services Finance and insurance Transport and storage Construction General government Community, social and personal services Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg Water Business services Wholesale and retail trade 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Share of Total Employment in

6 THE PROCESS OF ESTIMATING EMPLOYMENT MULTIPLIERS Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 6

7 Induced Impact 5 Other Sector Sales Other Sector Sales Other Sector Sales Other Sector Sales The different multiplier effects arising from a sales stimulus Remuneration Spending Other Income (Interest, Rent, Profits) Labour Labour Inputs Labour Inputs Inputs Other Other Inputs Other Inputs Inputs Labour Labour Inputs Labour Inputs Inputs Other Other Inputs Other Inputs Inputs Labour Inputs Other Inputs Firm Firm Upstream suppliers Orders Firm Firm Upstream suppliers Orders Firm Sales Order Stimulus Indirect Impact 4 First Round Impact 3 Direct Impact Initial Impact 2 1 Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 7

8 Some points of departure Demand for labour is derived from the demand for the goods and services that labour is required to produce. Unless a sector is already operating at full capacity, sales support existing employment opportunities they don t create new ones. Those employment opportunities will only continue to be supported for as long as sales orders continue to be forthcoming. When a firm is operating at or near full capacity, the employment opportunities created will depend on the rates of technical substitution between labour and other factors of production and the relative costs or prices of the different factor inputs. Changes in the productivity of existing workers will also impact on the need to employ additional labour to meet sales orders over time Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 8

9 Basic approach to estimation Estimate sector sales (Intermediate input + GVA + Net indirect taxes) 1 Intermediate consumption 56.2% Labour remuneration 22.5% Gross operating surplus 20.4% Net indirect taxes 0.9% Labour remuneration 51.4% Gross operating surplus 46.6% Net indirect taxes 2.0% 2 Estimate labour intensity (labour remuneration share of GVA) by sector and skill level 3 Use shares of labour remuneration and of output to determine initial impact multipliers Highly skilled formal 39.9% Skilled formal 37.3% Un-skilled formal 15.0% Informal 7.8% 4 Determine wage differentials between Johannesburg and South Africa by sector and skill 5 Calculate first round, indirect and induced multipliers for Johannesburg Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 9

10 The composition of sales by sector in Johannesburg in 2013 TJ: General government [SIC: 99] TI: Community, social and personal services [SIC: 93-96, 98] TH21: Business services [SIC: 83-88] TH20: Finance and insurance [SIC: 81-82] TG19: Communication [SIC: 75] TG18: Transport and storage [SIC: 71-74] TF17: Catering and accommodation services [SIC: 64] TF16: Wholesale and retail trade [SIC: 61-63] SE15: Construction [SIC: 51-53] SD14: Water [SIC: 42] SD13: Electricity [SIC: 41] SC12: Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] SC11: Transport equipment [SIC: ] SC10: Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] SC09: Electrical machinery and apparatus [SIC: ] SC08: Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] SC07: Other non-metal mineral products [SIC: ] SC06: Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] SC05: Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] SC04: Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] SC03: Food, beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] PB02: Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] PA01: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 11-13] 0: Total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Intermediate Consumption Labour Remuneration Gross Operating Surplus Net Indirect Taxes Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 10

11 The composition of gross value added by sector in Johannesburg in 2013 TJ: General government [SIC: 99] TI: Community, social and personal services [SIC: 93-96, 98] TH21: Business services [SIC: 83-88] TH20: Finance and insurance [SIC: 81-82] TH: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [SIC: 8] TG19: Communication [SIC: 75] TG18: Transport and storage [SIC: 71-74] TG: Transport, storage and communication [SIC: 7] TF17: Catering and accommodation services [SIC: 64] TF16: Wholesale and retail trade [SIC: 61-63] TF: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [SIC: 6] T: Tertiary sector [SIC: 6-9] SE: Construction [SIC: 5] SD14: Water [SIC: 42] SD13: Electricity [SIC: 41] SD: Electricity, gas and water [SIC: 4] SC12: Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] SC11: Transport equipment [SIC: ] SC10: Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] SC09: Electrical machinery and apparatus [SIC: ] SC08: Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] SC07: Other non-metal mineral products [SIC: ] SC06: Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] SC05: Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] SC04: Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] SC03: Food, beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] SC: Manufacturing [SIC: 3] S: Secondary sector [SIC: 3-5] PB: Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] PA: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] P: Primary sector [SIC: 1-2] 0: Total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total Labour Remuneration GOS Net Indirect Taxes Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 11

12 % Share of GVA at Basic Prices Relative labour and capital intensities in the electrical machinery and apparatus sector in Johannesburg 120% 100% Labour GOS Need to look out for some quirks! 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database -20% Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 12

13 The skills composition of employment by sector in Johannesburg in 2013 TJ: General government [SIC: 99] TI: Community, social and personal services [SIC: 93-96, 98] TH21: Business services [SIC: 83-88] TH20: Finance and insurance [SIC: 81-82] TH: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [SIC: 8] TG19: Communication [SIC: 75] TG18: Transport and storage [SIC: 71-74] TG: Transport, storage and communication [SIC: 7] TF17: Catering and accommodation services [SIC: 64] TF16: Wholesale and retail trade [SIC: 61-63] TF: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [SIC: 6] T: Tertiary sector [SIC: 6-9] SE: Construction [SIC: 5] SD14: Water [SIC: 42] SD13: Electricity [SIC: 41] SD: Electricity, gas and water [SIC: 4] SC12: Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] SC11: Transport equipment [SIC: ] SC10: Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] SC09: Electrical machinery and apparatus [SIC: ] SC08: Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] SC07: Other non-metal mineral products [SIC: ] SC06: Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] SC05: Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] SC04: Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] SC03: Food, beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] SC: Manufacturing [SIC: 3] S: Secondary sector [SIC: 3-5] PB: Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] PA: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] P: Primary sector [SIC: 1-2] 0: Total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Highly Skilled Formal Skilled Formal Un-Skilled Formal Informal Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 13

14 THE RESULTS OF THE EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATION PROCESS Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 14

15 Estimated initial impact employment multipliers by sector and skills level in Johannesburg in 2013 Industry Estimated Initial Impact Number of Employment Opportunities Supported by a R1 million Sales Stimulus Highly Average Skilled Formal Skilled Formal Un-skilled Formal Informal 0: Total P: Primary sector [SIC: 1-2] PA: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] PB: Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] S: Secondary sector [SIC: 3-5] SC: Manufacturing [SIC: 3] SC03: Food, beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] SC04: Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] SC05: Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] SC06: Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] SC07: Other non-metal mineral products [SIC: ] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 15

16 Estimated initial impact employment multipliers by sector and skills level in Johannesburg in 2013 (continued) Industry Estimated Initial Impact Number of Employment Opportunities Supported by a R1 million Sales Stimulus Highly Average Skilled Formal Skilled Formal Un-skilled Formal Informal SC08: Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] SC09: Electrical machinery and apparatus [SIC: ] SC10: Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] SC11: Transport equipment [SIC: ] SC12: Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] SD: Electricity, gas and water [SIC: 4] SD13: Electricity [SIC: 41] SD14: Water [SIC: 42] SE: Construction [SIC: 5] T: Tertiary sector [SIC: 6-9] TF: Wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation [SIC: 6] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 16

17 Estimated initial impact employment multipliers by sector and skills level in Johannesburg in 2013 (continued) Industry Estimated Initial Impact Number of Employment Opportunities Supported by a R1 million Sales Stimulus Highly Average Skilled Formal Skilled Formal Un-skilled Formal Informal TF16: Wholesale and retail trade [SIC: 61-63] TF17: Catering and accommodation services [SIC: 64] TG: Transport, storage and communication [SIC: 7] TG18: Transport and storage [SIC: 71-74] TG19: Communication [SIC: 75] TH: Finance, insurance, real estate and business services [SIC: 8] TH20: Finance and insurance [SIC: 81-82] TH21: Business services [SIC: 83-88] TI: Community, social and personal services [SIC: 93-96, 98] TJ: General government [SIC: 99] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 17

18 Comparative initial impact employment multipliers Johannesburg and South Africa Sector Estimated Average Number of Initial Impact Employment Opportunities Supported by a R1 million Sales Stimulus Johannesburg South Africa 0: Total PA: Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] PB: Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] SC: Manufacturing [SIC: 3] SC03: Food, beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] SC04: Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] SC05: Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] SC06: Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] SC07: Other non-metal mineral products [SIC: ] SC08: Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] SC09: Electrical machinery and apparatus [SIC: ] SC10: Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] SC11: Transport equipment [SIC: ] Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 18

19 Comparative initial impact employment multipliers Johannesburg and South Africa Sector Estimated Average Number of Initial Impact Employment Opportunities Supported by a R1 million Sales Stimulus Johannesburg South Africa SC12: Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] SD13: Electricity [SIC: 41] SD14: Water [SIC: 42] SE: Construction [SIC: 5] TF16: Wholesale and retail trade [SIC: 61-63] TF17: Catering and accommodation services [SIC: 64] TG18: Transport and storage [SIC: 71-74] TG19: Communication [SIC: 75] TH20: Finance and insurance [SIC: 81-82] TH21: Business services [SIC: 83-88] TI: Community, social and personal services [SIC: 93-96, 98] TJ: General government [SIC: 99] Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 19

20 Estimated economy-wide jobs (formal and informal) supported by R1 million sales stimulus Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] Business services [83-88] Wholesale and retail trade [61-63] Community, social and personal services [SIC: 9] Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] Transport and storage [71-74] Catering and accommodation services [64] Communication [75] Electrical machinery and apparatus [ ] Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] Transport equipment [SIC: ] Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] Water supply [42] Finance and insurance [81-82] Electricity, gas and steam [41] Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] General government services [99] Food, Beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] Other non-metallic mineral products [SIC: ] Construction [SIC: 5] Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimated Economy-wide Jobs Supported by R1 million Sales Stimulus Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 20

21 Estimated maximum* formal highly skilled employment supported in Johannesburg by R1 million sales stimulus General government services [99] Business services [83-88] Wholesale and retail trade [61-63] Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] Finance and insurance [81-82] Electrical machinery and apparatus [ ] Communication [75] Community, social and personal services [SIC: 9] Water supply [42] Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] Transport and storage [71-74] Catering and accommodation services [64] Electricity, gas and steam [41] Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] Transport equipment [SIC: ] Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] Food, Beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] Other non-metallic mineral products [SIC: ] Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] Construction [SIC: 5] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimated Economy-wide Jobs Supported by R1 million Sales Stimulus Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 21

22 Estimated maximum* formal skilled employment supported in Johannesburg by R1 million sales stimulus Business services [83-88] Wholesale and retail trade [61-63] Catering and accommodation services [64] Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] Transport and storage [71-74] Communication [75] Finance and insurance [81-82] Electrical machinery and apparatus [ ] Community, social and personal services [SIC: 9] General government services [99] Transport equipment [SIC: ] Water supply [42] Electricity, gas and steam [41] Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] Food, Beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] Other non-metallic mineral products [SIC: ] Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] Construction [SIC: 5] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimated Economy-wide Jobs Supported by R1 million Sales Stimulus Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 22

23 Estimated maximum* formal semi- and un-skilled employment supported in Johannesburg by R1 million sales stimulus Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] Community, social and personal services [SIC: 9] Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] Business services [83-88] Electrical machinery and apparatus [ ] Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] Wholesale and retail trade [61-63] Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] Transport and storage [71-74] General government services [99] Catering and accommodation services [64] Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] Transport equipment [SIC: ] Communication [75] Electricity, gas and steam [41] Water supply [42] Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] Other non-metallic mineral products [SIC: ] Finance and insurance [81-82] Food, Beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] Mining and quarrying [SIC: 2] Construction [SIC: 5] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimated Economy-wide Jobs Supported by R1 million Sales Stimulus Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 23

24 Estimated maximum* informal employment supported in Johannesburg by R1 million sales stimulus Wholesale and retail trade [61-63] Agriculture, forestry and fishing [SIC: 1] Business services [83-88] Transport and storage [71-74] Community, social and personal services [SIC: 9] Communication [75] Catering and accommodation services [64] Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic [SIC: ] Wood, paper, publishing and printing [SIC: ] Textiles, clothing and leather goods [SIC: ] Electrical machinery and apparatus [ ] Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks [SIC: ] Food, Beverages and tobacco [SIC: ] Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment [SIC: ] Furniture and other manufacturing [SIC: ] Other non-metallic mineral products [SIC: ] Construction [SIC: 5] Water supply [42] Source of basic data: Quantec Standardised Regional Database Estimated Economy-wide Jobs Supported by R1 million Sales Stimulus Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 24

25 IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 25

26 Implications for employment Value of Sales Required to Support Indicated Number of Employment Opportunities R (billions) Number of Employment Opportunities to be Supported Initial impact First round Direct impact Indirect effect Direct & indirect impact Induced impact Economywide impact 100, , Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 26

27 Key assumptions affecting the ongoing validity of the employment multipliers The multipliers reflect the number of jobs supported by a R1 million sales order. Additional jobs will only be created if additional sales orders are received and the sector is currently operating at, or close to, full capacity. The multipliers are based on the estimated structure of the Johannesburg economy as it prevailed in Data from subsequent years should be deflated using relevant price deflators. The multipliers reflecting the initial employment-supporting impact relate specifically to data for Johannesburg. Subsequent employment-supporting effects (1 st round, indirect and induced impacts) are derived from national employment multipliers that were adjusted for labour remuneration differentials between Johannesburg and the national average. The reflect the theoretical maximum number of jobs that would be supported within the Johannesburg economy if the only leakages arose from imports from other countries. To the extent that subsequent orders with upstream suppliers (1 st round and indirect effects) and the induced spending that arises from these combined effects are not contained within the geographical boundaries of Johannesburg, the resulting jobs will be supported in other parts of South Africa. Estimation of employment multipliers for the City of Johannesburg 27

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