Crops Marketing and Management Update

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1 Crops Marketing and Management Update Department of Agricultural Economics Princeton REC Dr. Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor -- Crop Economics Marketing & Management Vol (4) April 22, 2016 Topics in this Month s Update: 1. April 12 th WASDE Update: USDA Makes Minor Adjustments to Balance Sheets Prospective Plantings Report Stuns Corn Market 3. Price Risk Management Alternatives for 2016 Wheat 4. Price Risk Management Alternatives for 2016 Corn and Soybeans 5. Crop Moisture, Temperature Maps and Weather Outlook 6. Projected Returns to On-Farm and Off-Farm Storage for 2015 Corn and Soybeans 7. Potential Balance Sheets for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat 8. How Do I Get on the Distribution List to Receive this Newsletter? Topic 1. April 12 th WASDE Update: USDA Makes Minor Adjustments to Balance Sheets The April WASDE is usually quickly forgotten as the market places greater focus on the Prospective Plantings report, released March 31, that provided a surprising initial estimate of potential corn planted acreage (Topic 2). In light of sluggish demand and no production changes to the 2015 crop, the April report did not provide much information. Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Change from Estimated Projected Projected Planted Area (million) Harvested Area (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks ,232 1, Production 10,755 13,829 14,216 13, Imports Total Supply 11,904 14,686 15,479 15, Feed and Residual 4,315 5,036 5,315 5, Food, Seed & Industrial 6,038 6,501 6,568 6, Ethanol and by-products 4,641 5,134 5,209 5, Exports 730 1,917 1,864 1, Total Use 11,083 13,454 13,748 13, Ending Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1, Stocks/Use 7.4% 9.2% 12.6% 13.8% +1.2% Days of Stocks U.S. Marketing-Year Average Price ($/bu) $6.89 $4.46 $3.70 $3.55 $0.15 Source: April 2016 WASDE - USDA: WAOB. The report did not make any changes to the 2015 supply projections for corn. The report did reduce feed use by 50 million bushels but increased ethanol use by 25 million bushels to partially off-set this reduction. The net change in ending stocks was an increase of 25 million bushels to projected ending-stocks of billion bushels. This is a 131 million bushel increase over last year and is about a 50 day supply of corn available prior to the 2016 corn harvest The corn market continues to struggle with use which is projected to be 227 million bushels less than the previous marketing-year. Exports have been reduced by a strong US Dollar coupled with price competitive exports from Brazil. The U.S. marketing-year average (MYA) price is projected to be $0.15/bushel lower to $3.55/bushel. 1

2 The April report increased global corn stocks to million metric ton (MMT) from the March report. Changing policies in Argentina and China will provide both countries opportunities to diversify their crop production for the next growing season. Argentina s elimination of export taxes on all commodities except soy coupled with elimination in export restrictions and removal of currency restrictions should provide economic and agronomic incentives to expand in corn and wheat for their 2016 crops. Similarly, China s adjustment of their corn price support program should reduce corn planted area and motivate Chinese farmers to plant more soybeans. China will still be the export market for soybeans but could eventually increase corn imports. China currently holds 52% of the world s corn stocks which prompted the change to their corn price support policy to reduce this burdensome level. Table 2. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Change from Estimated Projected Projected Planted Area (million) Harvested Area (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks Production 3,042 3,358 3,927 3, Imports Total Supply 3,252 3,570 4,052 4, Crushings 1,689 1,734 1,873 1, Exports 1,317 1,647 1,843 1, Seed Residual Total Use 3,111 3,478 3,862 3, Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 4.5% 2.6% 4.9% 12.0% +7.1% Days of Stocks U.S. Marketing-Year Average Price ($/bu) $14.40 $13.00 $10.10 $8.75 -$1.35 Source: April 2016 WASDE - USDA: WAOB. The April report increased soybean exports by 15 million bushels from the previous estimate to a projected billion bushels. This is a response to a stronger than expected export pace. Exports are still down 138 million bushels from last year. The increase in projected exports reduced ending stocks to 445 million bushels from last month s estimate of 460 million bushels. Projected ending stocks are 254 million bushels greater than the previous year. The stocks-use ratio is projected to increase to 12% which is about a 44 day supply of soybeans on hand at the start of the marketing-year. The US MYA farm price is projected at $8.75/bushel down $1.35/bushel from the previous year. Table 3. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Change from Estimated Projected Projected Planted Acres (million) Harvested Acres (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks Production 2,252 2,135 2,026 2, Imports Total Supply 3,118 3,021 2,766 2, Food Seed Feed and Residual Exports 1,012 1, Total Use 2,400 2,431 2,014 1, Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 29.9% 24.3% 37.3% 50.1% +12.8% Days of Stocks U.S. Marketing-Year Average Price ($/bu) $7.77 $6.87 $5.99 $4.95 -$1.04 Source: April 2016 WASDE - USDA: WAOB. The April report made a very minor adjustment to the wheat feed use projection by reducing use by 10 million bushels. Total wheat use is projected to decline 66 million bushels from last year. Projected exports at 775 million bushels, if realized, will be the lowest level of exports since the marketing-year. Projected ending stocks at 976 million bushels are a stocks-use ratio of 50.1% or about a 183 day supply of wheat available at the start of the marketing-year. The projected stocksuse ratio of 50.1% is the largest since the marketing-year. The US MYA price is projected at $4.95 per bushel which is $1.04/bushel lower than the previous year. Besides having abundant stocks domestically, world stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat are projected to increase by 1.3, 1.3 and 24.5 Million Metric Tons (MMT), respectively from

3 USDA projects that China s corn stocks will increase by 9 MMT and that China holds about 52% of the world s projected corn stocks. China is also projected to increase wheat stocks by 20.2 MMT and is projected to hold about 40% of the world s projected wheat stocks. For soybeans, Argentina and Brazil are projected to have 37% and 22% of the world s ending-stocks, respectively. Both countries are storing as a hedge against inflation and a way to preserve monetary value. Both countries are experiencing weather stress. Brazil has a drought that may reduce the size of their second corn crop. Argentina is experiencing excessive rains and flooding. For some Argentine farmers, the best case scenario is a delayed harvest. For other farmers, their fields are flooded and an entire crop is lost. The impact on Argentine soybean production is uncertain but some analysts project the crop to be reduced by 4 million metric tons (MMT). Topic Prospective Plantings Report Stuns Corn Market The March 31 st Prospective Plantings report provides the first farmer based survey of potential 2016 planted area for the principle crops. Until this survey, USDA has been working with economic model based assumptions on planted area for This survey is conducted in the first two weeks of March contacting over 83,000 farmers in the primary producing states. Table 4 summarizes the potential 2016 planted are for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton and the change from 2015 planted area. The surprising result is the 5.6 million acre increase in corn area to a potential 93.6 million acres (Table 4). The survey suggests the largest increase in corn acres to come from Kansas (650 thousand), North Dakota (650 thousand), Illinois (400 thousand), Iowa (400 thousand) and Missouri (350 thousand). These five states compose about 43% of the potential increase in corn planted are in Of this increase, only Iowa and Illinois are core corn producing states while the rest of the potential increase is from the outer regions of the Corn Belt that has lower yield potential than in Iowa and Illinois. Soybean area is projected to be reduced slightly in 2016 by 414 thousand acres to a projected 82.2 million acres (Table 4). The biggest increase in soybean area is in Missouri (950 thousand), Illinois (200 thousand) and North Dakota (150 thousand) acres. The large increase in Missouri reflects the prevented planted are due to excessive rain in The largest potential reduction in soybean area is in Mississippi (300 thousand), Louisiana (280 thousand), Minnesota (200 thousand), Kentucky (190 thousand), South Dakota (150 thousand), Iowa (150 thousand) and Arkansas (150 thousand). Table 4 shows that the Midwest has the potential to increase soybean area by 790 thousand acres while the South is potentially planning on reducing planted area by million acres. Wheat planted area is projected to decline by million acres to a potential million acres (Table 4). Midwest states may potentially reduce wheat acres by million, the South by 1.93 million and the West by 930 thousand acres (Table 4). The largest potential reduction is in Texas (1 million), North Dakota (950 thousand), Kansas (700 thousand), South Dakota (472 thousand) and Oklahoma (300 thousand). As always, Mother Nature will dictate planted area in However this report is the first dose of new production information and the futures market responded. After the report release on March 31 st, the December 2016 corn futures contract fell $0.15 to $3.69/bushel. The contract traded in a 5-cent range until South American weather concerns spurred the contract to $4.03/bushel on April 20. That was the highest settlement for the contract since November 4, The December 2016 corn contract closed at $3.93 ½ on April 21, The November 2016 soybean futures contract closed $0.01 ¾ higher the day of the Prospective Plantings report. The contract began to factor in the weather problems in Argentina around April 8 as the contract closed 11 cents higher. Since then, the November 2016 contract has approached $10/bushel on April 20 th with a settlement of $9.99 ¾. The last time the November 2016 contract traded above $9.99 ¾ was on January 7, Risk management alternatives for the 2016 corn and soybean crop will be discussed further in Topic 4. Keep in mind that the December corn and November soybean contracts are at prices not seen since last fall for corn or January 2015 for soybeans. While there is a lot of uncertainty about the 2016 corn and soybean crop which could provide even better pricing opportunities, managers should pencil their break-evens and consider the potential benefits of protecting some of expected production if you are near your pricing objectives. 3

4 Table 4. Potential Corn, Soybean, Wheat and Cotton Acres for 2016 with Change from 2015 Acres (Thousands). Corn (1,000 Acres) Soybeans (1,000 Acres) Wheat (1,000 Acres) Cotton (1,000 Acres) Change from Change from Change from Change from Illinois 12, , Indiana 5, , Iowa 13, , Kansas 4, , , Michigan 2, , Minnesota 8, , , Missouri 3, , Nebraska 9, , , North Dakota 3, , , Ohio 3, , South Dakota 5, , , Wisconsin 4, , Midwest Total 77,200 3,400 66, ,654-2, Alabama Arkansas , Florida Georgia , Kentucky 1, , Louisiana , Mississippi , North Carolina , Oklahoma , South Carolina Tennessee , Texas 2, ,000-1,000 5, Virginia South Total 10,190 1,825 13,630-1,198 12,575-1,930 8, West Total 2, , East Total 3, , United States 93,601 5,602 82, ,559-5,085 9, Source: 2016 Prospective Plantings report. March 31, Topic 3. Price Risk Management Alternatives for 2016 Wheat Table 5 provides a snapshot of cash-forward contract (CFC) bids for June delivery for select locations in Western Kentucky as reported by DTN. Table 5. Cash Wheat Bids for June Delivery - Select Markets in Kentucky Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Livermore (Perdue) $4.43 $4.57 $4.47 $4.54 $4.71 $4.59 $4.66 $4.66 $4.40 $4.67 $4.79 Eddyville $4.72 $4.60 $4.69 $4.86 $4.73 $4.81 $4.56 $4.30 $4.94 Henderson $4.72 $4.60 $4.69 $4.88 $4.76 $4.83 $4.84 $4.58 $4.84 $4.97 Owensboro $4.73 $4.77 $4.64 $4.74 $4.91 $4.85 $4.55 $4.80 $4.96 Mayfield $4.57 $4.74 $4.62 $4.69 $4.69 $4.42 $4.69 $4.84 Hopkinsville (Elevator) $4.38 $4.42 $4.31 $4.42 $4.60 $4.48 $4.61 $4.59 $4.34 $4.60 $4.75 Hopkinsville (Siemer Milling) $4.67 $4.72 $4.59 $4.69 $4.85 $4.73 $4.56 $4.81 $4.54 $4.80 $4.94 Average $4.55 $4.65 $4.54 $4.62 $4.79 $4.65 $4.72 $4.69 $4.45 $4.73 $4.88 Source: DTN Cash Bids for Select Dates Listed Above. Average cash wheat prices for June delivery reached $4.79 on March 17 but transitioned lower to an average of $4.45 on April 11. The cash price for June delivery averaged $4.88 on April 19 which is the highest average so far this Spring. As always, managers should monitor the market for risk management opportunities prior to harvest. Figure 1 illustrates the ability of a cash-forward contract (CFC) at $4.88, a put with a $4.95 strike price that costs $0.25/bushel and cash sales at harvest to cover total variable cash costs excluding rent (red dash line at $3.54/bushel) and the total variable cash costs plus cash rent (black dash line at $6.21/bushel) targets. The 2016 wheat crop is going to provide a challenge for those who planted wheat on rented land as a price of $6.21/bushel is needed to break-even over total cash variable costs plus cash rent. Farmers who planted wheat on owned land and who are only worried about covering cash variable costs may be able to use CFC or put options to protect revenue 4

5 and meet cash cost obligations. Managers need to monitor pricing opportunities to protect their downside risk as best as possible. Remember that the July put option expires on June 24, Cash Price ($/Bushel) $6.50 $6.25 $6.00 $5.75 $5.50 $5.25 $5.00 $4.75 $4.50 $4.25 $4.00 $3.75 $3.50 $3.25 $3.00 $2.75 $2.50 Cash CFC Put TVC + Rent TVC $4.25 $4.50 $4.75 $5.00 $5.25 $5.50 $5.75 $6.00 Futures Price ($/Bushel) Figure 1. Comparison of Price Risk Management Strategies for 2016 Wheat. Topic 4. Price Risk Management Alternatives for 2016 Corn and Soybeans Sometimes the best pricing opportunities present themselves prior to planting or right at planting. Table 6 lists CFC corn bids for October delivery for selected markets in Western Kentucky. The average bids have been consistently between $3.68 and $3.83 for about the last month (Table 6). Table 6. Cash Corn Bids for October Delivery - Select Markets in Kentucky Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Livermore (Perdue) $3.57 $3.66 $3.53 $3.55 $3.64 $3.63 $3.65 $3.44 $3.44 $3.65 $3.71 Sebree (Tyson) $3.86 $3.95 $3.85 $3.84 $3.87 $3.92 $3.92 $3.73 $3.74 $3.95 $4.01 Pembroke $4.17 $4.25 $4.11 $4.14 $4.22 $4.23 $4.23 $4.04 $4.04 $3.65 $3.71 Eddyville --- $3.63 $3.47 $3.50 $3.57 $3.58 $3.57 $3.39 $3.39 $3.65 $3.71 Henderson $3.59 $3.68 $3.53 $3.54 $3.62 $3.63 $3.63 $3.44 $3.41 $3.66 $3.72 Owensboro $3.57 $3.65 $3.51 $3.54 $3.62 $3.63 $3.63 $3.44 $3.44 $3.65 $3.71 Mayfield $3.91 $4.00 $3.85 $3.89 $3.97 $3.97 $ $ $4.06 Average $3.78 $3.83 $3.69 $3.71 $3.79 $3.80 $3.80 $3.58 $3.61 $3.70 $3.80 Source: DTN Cash Bids for Select Dates Listed Above. Cash Price ($/Bushel) $4.80 $4.60 $4.40 $4.20 $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $3.00 $2.80 Cash CFC Put TVC + Rent $3.00 $3.20 $3.40 $3.60 $3.80 $4.00 $4.20 $4.40 $4.60 Futures Price ($/Bushel) Figure 2. Comparison of Price Risk Management Strategies for 2016 Corn. The average CFC bid for corn for October delivery reached $3.83/bushel on February 22 due to strong bids from processors/feed mills. Since then, the average bid has ebbed and flowed but has reached $3.80/bushel on March 21, March 28 and on April 19 with processors providing the highest bids. Figure 2 compares the effectiveness of a CFC at $3.80/bushel, a $4 Put that costs $0.33, and doing nothing in managing price risk for the 2016 corn crop. Assuming a per bushel total variable cash cost plus cash rent of $3.82/bushel, the CFC would lock in a loss of $0.02/bushel below the cash production costs and rent. Similarly, the $4 put would establish a price floor at $3.57/bushel which is a loss of $0.25/bushel. The value of the put exceeds the CFC when DEC corn is greater than $4.23/bu. At this time, risk management could be used to limit losses but are not at a level to protect profits. 5

6 Table 7. Cash Soybean Bids for October Delivery - Select Markets in Kentucky Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Livermore (Perdue) $8.66 $8.72 $8.56 $8.73 $8.88 $8.94 $9.01 $9.08 $9.19 $9.46 $9.74 Eddyville --- $8.77 $8.58 $8.78 $8.92 $8.98 $9.06 $9.16 $ $9.80 Henderson $8.74 $8.80 $8.56 $8.75 $8.95 $9.02 $9.09 $9.16 $9.29 $9.55 $9.83 Owensboro $8.76 $8.81 $8.63 $8.83 $8.97 $9.04 $9.11 $9.19 $9.29 $9.55 $9.84 Hopkinsville (Elevator) $8.51 $8.51 $8.34 $8.51 $8.66 $8.73 $8.91 $8.99 $9.10 $9.35 $9.66 Average $8.67 $8.72 $8.53 $8.72 $8.88 $8.94 $9.04 $9.12 $9.23 $9.48 $9.77 Source: DTN Cash Bids for Select Dates Listed Above. Cash Price ($/Bushel) $11.00 $10.50 $10.00 $9.50 $9.00 $8.50 $8.00 $7.50 $7.00 $6.50 Cash CFC Put TVC + Rent $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $9.00 $9.50 $10.00 $10.50 $11.00 Futures Price ($/Bushel) Figure 3. Comparison of Price Risk Management Strategies for 2016 Soybeans. The average CFC bid for soybeans is at a Spring high of $9.77 on April 19. The CFC bids have gained strength due to South American harvest issues and funds covering short positions. Managers should consider this rally as an opportunity to protect price risk on some of planned 2016 production. Figure 3 compares the effectiveness of a CFC at $9.77/bushel, a $10 Put that costs $0.57, and doing nothing in managing price risk for the 2016 soybean crop. Assuming a per bushel total variable cash cost plus cash rent of $8.50/bushel, the CFC would lock in a profit of $1.27/bushel above cash production costs and rent. The $10 put would establish a price floor at $9.33/bushel which is a $0.83/bushel return. The value of the option exceeds the CFC when NOV futures are above $ Currently, risk management opportunities exist to protect profit on some expected production Topic 5. Crop Moisture, Temperature Maps and Weather Outlook The following maps are provided to help gauge potential risks to the 2016 corn, soybean and wheat crops. The maps below are the 8 to 14 day outlook for precipitation (Left) and temperature (right). The current forecast is for a warm but wet spring for the Corn Belt and surrounding regions. The below normal temperature in the Southern Plains may raise some questions on wheat yield potential but those issues won t be resolved until harvest. 6

7 Topic 6. Projected Returns to On-Farm and Off-Farm Storage for 2015 Corn and Soybeans The projected returns over storage, shrink and opportunity costs for on-farm and off-farm storage for corn and soybeans are shown in Tables 8 11 to help guide the timing of marketing grain in storage. Historical basis for locations in Western Kentucky from 2001 to 2014 are used with current futures market quotes to develop price expectations for each month from November 2015 to July The basis information is provided by the Kentucky Farm Bureau Federation. To provide some sensitivity analysis, the basis is assumed to be one standard deviation higher and lower which would cover perhaps 68% of the potential basis outcomes. For even more sensitivity analysis, the basis is assumed to be two standard deviations higher or lower which might capture 95% of the potential basis variability. Don t worry about the statistics just think of the sensitivity analysis as considering basis that appreciates more than expected (+ standard deviations) or basis appreciating less than expected (- standard deviations). The projected returns to on-farm storage for corn are shown in Table 8. Remember that the returns in Table 8 that have the most certainty are the returns for the cash-forward-contract price assumptions as those prices can be guaranteed with certainty by a contract. The rest of the returns in Table 8 are subject to futures market and basis volatility. Table 8. Projected Returns to On-Farm Storage for Corn from October 2015 to July / Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Expected Basis +$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $0.085 CFC (DTN) +$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev +$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev +$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev +$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev +$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ / Expected basis is average from 2001 to 2014 for Western Kentucky locations. CFC (DTN) is cash-forward-contract prices as reported on DTN for Western Kentucky locations. Plus 1 std. deviation is the expected basis plus 1 standard deviation which could be considered an optimistic expectation for an appreciating basis. Plus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis plus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely optimistic basis appreciation. Minus 1 standard deviation is the expected basis minus 1 standard deviation which could be considered a pessimistic view of basis appreciation. Minus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis minus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely pessimistic view of basis appreciation. The only forecast which is certain is the CFC (DTN) as those are contracted prices. The rest are subject to market and basis volatility. The returns to storage include the opportunity cost of not selling corn at harvest. This cost is calculated at a 5% annual interest rate. Farms highly leveraged with higher interest rates also have larger opportunity costs. Using the CFC as a price forecasting tool, the potential for positive returns of $0.179/bushel exists for April delivery. The CFC prices currently do not show a premium for storage beyond April. Those hoping for greater returns to storage will need a stronger basis than currently exists. Table 9. Projected Returns to Off-Farm Storage for Corn from October 2015 to July / Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Expected Basis -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $0.173 CFC (DTN) -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ / Expected basis is average from 2001 to 2014 for Western Kentucky locations. CFC (DTN) is cash-forward-contract prices as reported on DTN for Western Kentucky locations. Plus 1 std. deviation is the expected basis plus 1 standard deviation which could be considered an optimistic expectation for an appreciating basis. Plus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis plus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely optimistic basis appreciation. Minus 1 standard deviation is the expected basis minus 1 standard deviation which could be considered a pessimistic view of basis appreciation. Minus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis minus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely pessimistic view of basis appreciation. The only forecast which is certain is the CFC (DTN) as those are contracted prices. The rest are subject to market and basis volatility. There is a lot more red ink for the projected returns to off-farm storage. The higher storage costs plus opportunity cost makes it difficult to pencil out a positive return to storage. Extreme basis appreciated is needed to cover all storage costs. Table 9 shows the projected returns to off-farm storage for corn from October 2015 to July The returns to off-farm storage are lower than on-farm storage due to the higher storage fee off-farm and a slightly larger shrink factor. Even an unusually strong basis will not provide positive returns given the current lack of carry in the market. Given that off-farm storage is more expensive than on-farm storage, managers need to pencil out the potential 7

8 return from the market for storing grain an additional month to guide sales. The projected margins, using CFC prices, suggests the smallest negative return is in April at /bushel (Table 9). The projected returns to on-farm storage for soybeans are shown in Table 10. The soybean futures market s rally since April 8 has finally provided positive potential returns to storage. Managers should pencil out their costs of storing soybeans (including quality loss) additional months. Then managers should consider CFC bids and consider taking advantage of profitable returns when available. Using CFC to lock in profitable margins is strongly encouraged. Table 10. Projected Returns to On-Farm Storage for Soybeans from October 2015 to July / Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Expected Basis -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $0.924 CFC (DTN) -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ / Expected basis is average from 2001 to 2014 for Western Kentucky locations. CFC (DTN) is cash-forward-contract prices as reported on DTN for Western Kentucky locations. Plus 1 std. deviation is the expected basis plus 1 standard deviation which could be considered an optimistic expectation for an appreciating basis. Plus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis plus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely optimistic basis appreciation. Minus 1 standard deviation is the expected basis minus 1 standard deviation which could be considered a pessimistic view of basis appreciation. Minus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis minus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely pessimistic view of basis appreciation. The only forecast which is certain is the CFC (DTN) as those are contracted prices. The rest are subject to market and basis volatility. Table 11. Projected Returns to Off-Farm Storage for Soybeans from October 2015 to July / Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Expected Basis -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $0.777 CFC (DTN) -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ std dev -$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ / Expected basis is average from 2001 to 2014 for Western Kentucky locations. CFC (DTN) is cash-forward-contract prices as reported on DTN for Western Kentucky locations. Plus 1 std. deviation is the expected basis plus 1 standard deviation which could be considered an optimistic expectation for an appreciating basis. Plus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis plus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely optimistic basis appreciation. Minus 1 standard deviation is the expected basis minus 1 standard deviation which could be considered a pessimistic view of basis appreciation. Minus 2 standard deviations is the expected basis minus 2 standard deviations which could be considered an extremely pessimistic view of basis appreciation. The only forecast which is certain is the CFC (DTN) as those are contracted prices. The rest are subject to market and basis volatility. If basis appreciates more than expected (+1 std. dev.), then the projected return to storage to May is a profit of $0.963/bushel. The CFC prices suggest profitable returns can be locked-in if managers can control quality. If basis appreciates more than expected (+1 std. dev.), the projected return to storage to May is $0.816/bushel. However, DTN CFC bids suggest that profitable returns can be locked-in after months of negative returns to off-farm storage. The projected returns to off-farm soybean storage are shown in Table 11. The greater fees associated with off-farm storage and lack of significant carry in the soybean futures market made it difficult to pencil out a positive return to storage until the recent rally in the futures market. The returns to off-farm storage projections have been negative until now. Managers should calculate their storage costs, look at CFC bids, and consider pricing at profitable levels. Topic 7. Potential Balance Sheets for Corn, Soybeans and Wheat The May WASDE will provide the first estimates of the supply and demand projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The market is currently digesting the Prospective Plantings report, weather during the planting and growing season, South American weather and political/economic uncertainty, and forecasting potential demand for the 2016 crops. The following preliminary analysis is an attempt to gauge the potential impact on ending stocks and price potential for different levels of production based on information from the Prospective Plantings report, and the 2016 Agricultural Baseline Projections with the author s assumptions included on acreage and use projections. First let s address the elephant in the room which is the projected 5.6 million acre increase for 2016 corn. Table 12 assumes two different potential increases in corn area for million and 3.5 million acres more than was planted in The 3.5 million acre increase assumes that spring rains in the Delta and forecasted rain in the Corn Belt forces intended corn acres to another crop. The 25-year trend yield is 165 bushels/acre and is varied by 2 8

9 bushels/acre for sensitivity analysis. The projected demand is held constant at billion bushels for all acreage and yield combinations. I am assuming that corn use will increase modestly by 229 million bushels over through modest growth in feed use and exports. The assumed projected use of billion is 25 million bushels larger than the USDA s Agricultural Baseline Projections of corn use for The potential 2016 corn production and prices are reported in Table 12. If 2016 planted area is increased by 5.6 million acres and above trend yields are obtained, the potential 2016 corn crop is projected to exceed 14.2 billion bushels. Without a strong increase in demand, corn stocks could increase to over 2.3 billion bushels with a projected U.S. marketing-year average farm price at $3.34 (with a 95% confidence interval of $2.64 to $4.04). Table 12. Potential U.S. Corn Balance Sheet for a 5.6 Million and 3.5 Million Acre Increase in Corn Planted Area from Projected Projected (DAVIS) Plt. Acre Change from 2015 (Million Acres) Planted Area (million) Harvested Area (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks 1,731 1,861 1,861 1,861 1,861 1,861 1,861 Production 13,601 13,868 14,039 14,209 13,557 13,724 13,890 Imports Total Supply 15,382 15,769 15,940 16,110 15,458 15,625 15,791 Feed and Residual 5,250 5,400 5,400 5,400 5,400 5,400 5,400 Food, Seed & Industrial 6,621 6,625 6,625 6,625 6,625 6,625 6,625 Ethanol and by-products 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 5,250 Exports 1,650 1,725 1,725 1,725 1,725 1,725 1,725 Total Use 13,521 13,750 13,750 13,750 13,750 13,750 13,750 Ending Stocks 1,861 2,019 2,190 2,360 1,708 1,875 2,041 Stocks/Use 13.8% 14.7% 15.9% 17.2% 12.4% 13.6% 14.8% U.S. Marketing-Year Average Price ($/bu) $3.55 $3.48 $3.40 $3.34 $3.65 $3.56 $3.48 Price Range ($/bu) $ $4.14 $ $4.11 $ $4.04 $ $4.25 $ $4.20 $ $4.15 Could the U.S. average yield reach 167 bushels/acre with much of the acreage increase occurring outside of the core production area? That would require a near perfect growing season across the country especially when the projected expansion is in Kansas, North Dakota and Missouri. Let s consider the scenario of 5.6 million additional corn acres with a 163 bushel/acre yield. The projected production at billion bushels would suggest a ending stocks at 2.01 billion bushels and a projected U.S. marketing-year average farm price of $3.48 (ranging $2.81 to $4.14). Why dwell on the unlikely potential increase of 5.6 million acres? Because you could reach a 2016 corn crop of billion bushels through multiple acreage/yield combinations with one combination being the scenario of a 3.5 million acre increase in area with a yield of 167 bushels/acre. The ending-stocks and projected prices are almost the same as the 5.6 million increase with 163 bushel/acre yield (Table 12). If corn area increases by 3.5 million acres with a trend yield then potential 2016 ending stocks are effectively the same as the current projections for the marketing-year. The midpoint price may be similar; however, my projections have a much wider price range from $2.92 to $4.20 (Table 12). Table 13 provides the projected supply and demand projections for soybeans. The 414 thousand acre increase is from the Prospective Plantings report while the 2.1 million acre increase assumes that some intended corn acres will switch to soybeans. The 25-year trend yield is 46 bushels/acre with sensitivity analysis of +/- 2 bushels/acre. Soybean use for is projected to increase slightly from Crushing use is projected to increase by 40 million bushels and seed/residual by 4 million bushels over the current projections. The wildcard is exports which are projected to increase by 55 million bushels which reflects the strong U.S. dollar, competition from South America and China s evolving corn policy which might stimulate more domestic soybean production than in previous years. The soybean market is assumed to face these headwinds for

10 Soybeans, like corn, really do not need any additional acres in If the acreage increase is modest, say 414 thousand acres, then trend-yields or lower could keep stocks near current level or even start to reduce stocks. If soybean acres increase by 2.1 million and Mother Nature blesses the crop with a 46 bushels/acre yield or larger, then use may not keep pace with the increased production and stocks could increase to burdensome levels. The most pessimistic price projections are for a 4 billion bushel crop with stocks-use over 18% (Table 13). Table 13. Potential U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet for a Million and 2.1 Million Acre Increase in Soybean Planted Area from Projected Projected DAVIS Plt. Acre Change from 2015 (Million Acres) Planted Area (million) Harvested Area (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks Production 3,929 3,615 3,779 3,943 3,688 3,856 4,023 Imports Total Supply 3,705 4,090 4,254 4,418 4,163 4,331 4,498 Crushings 1,870 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 1,910 Exports 1,705 1,760 1,760 1,760 1,760 1,760 1,760 Seed & Residual Total Use 3,705 3,803 3,803 3,803 3,803 3,803 3,803 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use 12.0% 7.5% 11.9% 16.2% 9.5% 13.9% 18.3% U.S. Marketing-Year Average Price ($/bu) $8.75 $9.59 $8.77 $8.21 $9.18 $8.49 $7.99 Price Range ($/bu) $ $10.22 $ $9.84 $ $9.59 $ $10.03 $ $9.71 $ $9.49 The marketing-year for wheat is almost here and there is less uncertainty on planted acreage for 2016 (Table 14). Planted area is assumed to be million acres based on the Winter Wheat Seedings report issued January 12 th plus the Prospective Plantings report from March 31. The average abandonment for the last four years was 15% which implies a harvested area projected at million acres. The author s projections assume a trend yield of 46 bushels/acre with yields ranging 1.5 bushels above and below trend. The author assumes a 2016 wheat crop of billion with a range of to billion bushels. Table 14. Potential U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet for Varying Production DAVIS Forecast Projected Above Trend Trend Below Trend Planted Acres (million) Harvested Acres (million) Yield (bushels/acre) Million Bushels Beginning Stocks Production 2,052 2,001 1,938 1,875 Imports Total Supply 2,924 3,097 3,034 2,971 Food Seed Feed and Residual Exports Total Use 1,948 1,990 1,990 1,990 Ending Stocks 976 1,107 1, Stocks/Use 50.1% 55.6% 52.5% 49.3% Days of Stocks U.S. Marketing-Year Average Price ($/bu) $4.95 $3.95 $4.05 $4.13 Price Range ($/bu) $4.95 $ $5.00 $ $5.05 $ $5.07 Trend yields and a billion bushel wheat crop suggest an average U.S. wheat price of $4.05/bushel with a range from $3.05 to $5.05. A 2016 wheat crop that is similar to the 2015 crop could push stocks above 1.1 billion bushels to a stocks-use ratio of 55.6%. At that stocks/use level, the average wheat price could be $3.95/bushel with a range of $2.90 to $5/bushel. Even if wheat yields are below trend and the 2016 crop is billion bushels, ending-stocks would grow slightly and the U.S. marketing-year average price could be $4.13/bushel. The lower prices reflect overall weakness in the grain/oilseed markets coupled with anemic demand for U.S. wheat. They say low prices cure low prices but that adjustment process is financially painful. 10

11 The demand side of the wheat balance sheet is projected to remain a problem for The author projects total use at 1.99 billion which is only a 42 million bushel increase in use from the April WASDE s projections for the marketing-year. Cheap corn may limit feed use and food use is very constant with population growth. While exports are a wild-card for corn and soybeans, they are at a crisis level for wheat. Global competition has turned the U.S. into a residual wheat supplier and the industry has not adjusted to this reality. Managers should take some comfort in that these projections will be proven wrong as far as the realized production, use, and stocks levels will vary by a few million bushels. For instance, the realized total corn use could be 13.9 billion instead of billion bushels. Everyone recognizes that the 2016 crops will experience the usual uncertainty prior to harvest and the post-harvest issues of export competition, exchange rates, and foreign policies that will impact the realized production, use and ending-stocks projections in this analysis. I don t worry about not forecasting exactly each component of the supply/use tables. I m more concerned that the spirit of this message will be proven right and stocks will continue to grow which will place further pressure on prices. At this point, price relief will require a significant production problem in an important domestic or global production region OR use will increase more than projected. An increase in use will require exports to perform better in than in Managers should continue to calculate their expected break-even prices and monitor the market for risk management opportunities. Remaining vigilant to pricing opportunities provides a more proactive management strategy than hoping for a production problem to provide better prices. Topic 8. How Do I Get on the Distribution List to Receive this Newsletter? If you would like to receive each month s newsletter by , send an to todd.davis@uky.edu and request to be added to the distribution list. The Crops Marketing and Management Update is published monthly usually after the release of the USDA: WASDE report. You can find this issue and past issue on the UK Agricultural Economics Department s website at: Todd D. Davis Assistant Extension Professor Extension Economist Crop Economics Marketing & Management Educational programs of Kentucky Cooperative Extension serve all people regardless of race, color, age, sex, religion, disability, or national origin. UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY, KENTUCKY STATE UNIVERSITY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, AND KENTUCKY COUNTIES, COOPERATING 11

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