Market. Highlights. October 2012
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- Griffin Nicholas Morrison
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1 Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia October 212 Issued November 19 th, 212 Highlights Inflation: The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined in all Somali Shilling (SoSh) areas but remained steady in Somaliland Shilling (SlSh) regions. The CPI is significantly higher compared to the base period (March 27) in SoSh areas; it is moderately elevated in SlSh areas. Exchange rates between local currencies to the USD remained relatively stable with the SoSh losing slight ground while the SlSh extended signs of recovery in the last two months. Compared to the same period a year ago, SlSh depreciated against the USD, whereas SoSh gained considerable value. The appreciation of the SoSh is attributed to increased supply of dollars through humanitarian interventions, high livestock trade, increased investments and port activities (Mogadishu). The weakening of SlSh is due to increased supply and circulation of new currency notes. Local grain prices were mixed; remained stable in most markets, increased slightly in Juba regions, but declined significantly in the North SoSh areas and in Banadir. Compared to a year ago, cereal prices are significantly lower in the SoSh zones due to higher supplies from a combination of sources, including domestic production, commercial imports and humanitarian food; the prices were relatively stable in the North SlSh areas in the same period of comparison. Prices of most imported commodities were generally stable in most markets over the month of October 212, but declined in the port cities and in the surrounding markets. On the contrary, wheat flour prices went up in most markets as a result of high wheat price on the international markets due to tight global supplies. Compared to the same period last year, imported commodity prices are significantly lower due to the strengthened SoSh, higher supplies through Mogadishu port. This Market Data Update is a monthly report that presents a compilation of tabulated graphical market information produced regularly as part of the monthly monitoring process. Livestock prices increased in nearly all markets during October. Compared to the same month last year, livestock prices are significantly higher across all regions. The price appreciation was mainly due to improved body conditions, low supply of saleable stock and high export demand during Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage). Labour wages either remained constant or increased in all regions supported by ongoing Deyr seasonal preparations in the South-Central and Gu-Karan harvests in the Northern agro-pastoral livelihoods. Labour wages are significantly higher compared to their levels a year ago in most markets. The weekly price data is collected from 47 main markets throughout Somalia since 199. Market analysis is an integral part of all of FSNAU s Annual Food Security Projections and seasonal technical reports (Technical Reports on FSNAU Post Gu and Deyr Analysis). This data is available online on (ToT) between labour wage and cereals were mixed in October mostly remaining stable but significantly rising in Banadir and parts of Sorghum Belt. The purchasing power has significantly improved when compared to a year ago due to lower cereal prices, improved goat prices and higher labour wages (Table 1). Technical and Managerial Support Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
2 Regional Market Highlights Juba Valley: Imported food prices remained stable; the price of maize increased slightly; monthly livestock prices also increased. Prices are significantly lower than a year ago for imported food and local cereals, but significantly higher for livestock. Annual comparisons of ToT between labor and cereals indicate significant improvement in the purchasing power. The ToT (1Kg/daily wage rate) for October nearly sustained its previous month s level. Sorghum Belt: Sorghum and imported food prices remained stable while livestock prices increased. Prices of imports and local cereals are significantly lower compared to their levels a year ago while those of livestock are significantly higher. The ToT between labour and cereals rose from the previous month. The annual comparison indicates an almost five-fold increase (19kg/daily wage) in Bay region; the ToT is 1-2 times higher than last year in the rest of the Sorghum Belt regions. Shabelle Valley: Prices of local cereals were generally stable in October; livestock exhibited significant increases while imported food prices increased moderately. Stability in cereal and labor wages settled the monthly ToT to their September levels (12kg for a day s labour). Prices of most imported commodities and cereals are significantly lower while livestock prices, on the other hand, are significantly higher when compared to the same month a year ago. Central: Imported food and local cereal prices decreased slightly while those of livestock increased. Annual comparisons indicate significant lower prices for all items except livestock, which is significantly higher. ToT (rice/ local goat), currently standing at 62kg/local goat, is stable since September; it is higher when compared to the same month last year (October 211). Northeast: Reduction was recorded for the prices of imported food and sorghum while livestock prices appreciated. Annual price comparisons show significant decline for imported commodities and local cereals while those of livestock increased. ToT (rice/ local goat) is equivalent to 86kg/local goat, showing a marginal decline over the month of October; however, the ToT is significantly higher when compared to the same month last year. Northwest: The prices of white sorghum remained stable; the prices of imported commodities reduced slightly while livestock prices increased. Annual price comparison shows mixed trends for imported food, stability for locally produced cereals and considerably inflated prices for livestock. The monthly ToT between local white sorghum and wages decreased slightly from September 212 levels but is higher than the same month in 211, currently equivalent to about 11kg/daily wage rate. Banadir: In the last month, the prices of locally produced and imported food declined while those of livestock increased marginally. With the exception of highly valued livestock, prices of imported and locally produced food are significantly below their levels a year ago. Tot cereal (maize/ labour wage) increased by 4kg from 11kgs a month ago, and is twice as high as during the same month in 211. Table 1: ly and Annual Changes in Tot: MT of Cereals (kg) per Daily Labour Wage Rate Region Cereal used 11-Oct 12-Sep 12-October ly change Annual change (kg/daily wage) (kg/daily wage) (kg/daily wage) (%) (%) Banadir White Maize % 114% Bay Red Sorghum % 37% Bakool Red Sorghum 6 2% 2% Gedo Red Sorghum % 36% Hiraan White Maize % 7% Juba White Maize % 1% Shabelle White Maize % 71% Northeast Red Sorghum % 7% Northwest White Sorghum % 22% Central Red Sorghum 7 7 % 4% 2
3 International Market Highlights Diesel: Crude oil prices in Abu Dhabi (Dubai) 1 dropped in October by $2.3 to $18.7/barrel. This price is however percent higher than in the same month in 211. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ly Oil Market Report (November 212) attributes a steady decline for the better part of September-October period to the following factors: higher growth in crude supply, concerns on global economic slowdown as well as significant US crude stockbuilds drove oil prices on, overriding geopolitical supply fears 2. In Somalia Port Cities of Bossaso and Mogadishu, diesel prices declined marginally (3-%) when compared to September 212. However, the prices are significantly lower (2-3%) than the same month last year as a result of appreciated value of the SoSh against the USD as well as increased supplies through local ports. The differential between the prices of domestic diesel and global crude oil has shrank in the port cities over the past one year (since October 211): from 42 percent to 23 percent in Mogadishu; and from 19 percent to 4 percent in Bossaso. The price differential attenuation signifies the role of local factors in driving imported commodity prices on the domestic markets (Figure 1). Rice: The benchmark price of Thai rice (Thai A1 Super 1/ B), the major type of rice imported in Somalia, remained mostly stable in October 3, averaging USD 4 per tonne; but this price is still 8 percent higher than the same month in 211. The relative price stability was supported by anticipated rise in stocks in major exporting countries including in Thailand 4. Prices of imported rice in Bossaso and Mogadishu ports in October were largely stable but declined significantly (3-44%) when compared to the same month a year ago, supported by stronger domestic currency and improved port supplies. The gap between international and domestic rice markets narrowed down in both towns; from 2-77 percent in October 211 to 12-4 percent in the reporting month (Figure 2). Sugar: The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 288 points in October, up 4. points (1.6 percent) from September, and down 73 points (2.2 percent) from October last year. The recent trend in sugar quotations has two major drivers: short-term export tightness in Brazil, the world s largest sugar exporter; prospects of large overall availabilities in the current 212/13 marketing season. USD per Litre USD per Kilogram USD per Kilogram Figure 1: Diesel Prices: Dubai, Mogadishu and Bossaso Oct-8 Jan-9 International Mogadishu Bossasso Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Source: FAO Statistics, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Price Monitoring System, 212 Figure 2: Rice Prices: Bangkok FOB, Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Oct-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 International Mogadishu Bossasso Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Source: FAO Statistics, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Price Monitoring System, Oct-8 Oct-1 Figure 3: Sugar Prices: International, Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Jan-9 Apr-9 Jan-11 International Mogadishu Bossasso Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 July-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 Jan-12 April-12 Jul-12 Jul -12 Jul-12 Oct -12 ly sugar prices remained steady in Bossaso and decreased by 1 percent in Mogadishu. Due to higher supply through commercial imports and humanitarian assistance, annual price reductions were significant in both cities, in the range of 2-29 percent. Cooking Oil: the FAO Oils/Fats Price Index 6 averaged 26 points in October, dropping 18 points (8 percent) from September, and reaching its lowest level in two years. The slide in prices mainly reflects continued abundance in palm oil output in Southeast Asia, combined with weak world import demand. Higher than expected export availabilities of soy, rape and sunflower seed oil, and a general slowdown in global consumption growth also contributed to cooling in the market. In port cities of Somalia, vegetable oil prices remained relatively stable over the previous month in Bosasso and Mogadishu but showed a significant annual decline (13-2%) on the backdrop of on-going humanitarian interventions, improved port operations and international price trends. 1 the main source of Somalia s oil imports 2 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ly Oil Market Report (November, 212; downloads/publications/momr_november_212.pdf 3 The World Food Situation: The FAO Food Price Index November IGC GMR October 212 The World Food Situation: The FAO Food Price Index November Ibid 3 Source: International Sugar Organization, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Price Monitoring System, 212
4 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, Cereal Prices and Relative Purchasing Power Figure 4: between wage rates and selected cereals Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT Labour to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT Labour to Rice (NW) TOT Labour to Maize (Juba & Shabelle TOT Labour to Rice (Central & NE) Figure : ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) 4 8 SoSh per US Dollar Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa Figure 6: ly Trends in Consumer Price Index (CPI, March 27=1) 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 1, 12, 9, 6, 3, Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 SlSh per US Dollar Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul Central North(Sosh) North(SlSh) South somalia (SoShs) Mar-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug 1 Oct-1 Dec-1 April-11 June -11 J Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 CPI Figure 7: ly Trends in Local Cereal Prices Price per Kg (SoSH) Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) SorghumBelt(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) Price per Kg (SLSH) 4
5 Regional analysis: Juba Regions -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 14,11 44,67 33,36 32,971 1,87-26% % 134% Imported Red Rice 1kg 9,4 2,821 16,7 17,286 8,124-33% 3% 81% Petrol 1 litre 16,39 38, 34,214 34,286 16,213-11% % 19% Sugar 9,14 47,143 22,143 22, 1,367-3% -1% 144% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 2,734 8,643 38,714 39,6 18,741-32% 2% 91% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,667 24, 16,286 16,714 7,82-3% 3% 93% Wheat Grain 1kg 1,2 2, \ Red Sorghum 1kg 2,228-7,,6 2, % 11% White Maize 1kg 2,7 1,429 8,4 8,41 3,921-4% % 228% Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,222,4 7,936,667 1,127,83 9,44,471 4,493,887 19% -7% 193% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,688,44 2,91, 3,724,2 3,847,33 1,83,488 32% 3% 128% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 6,6 18,643 18,67 22, 1,367 18% 18% 231% Goat Export Quality (Head) 42,671 1,8,214 1,82, 1,97,114 97,271 8% 4% 348% Goat Local Quality (Head) 3,36 68,37 1,182,893 1,178,29 6,38 72% % 286% Charcoal kg 29,326 64,17 82,893 81,371 38,61 27% -2% 177% Cowpeas 1 kg,7 33,2 2,464 2,29 9,429-4% -2% 29% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 36,8 63,71 82,17 81,714 38,778 29% % 127% Firewood Bundle 2,23 6,71 9,17 8,714 4,46 33% -4% 287% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 21,379 91,393 72,36 69,429 32,933-24% -4% 22% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,71 29,37 22,332 22,83 1,64-23% 1% 41% Cement kg - 338,333 29,78 297, 141,44-12% 2% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 362, 284, , ,96-14% 1% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,83 122, ,114 8,91-3% 2% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 2, 1, 1, 7,37-2% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 3,2 34,7 3,417 16,71 % 2% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 3,333 31, ,429 13,782-36% 3% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 79, 793, ,87 389,973 4% 3% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 327, 276,7 273,2 129,97-17% -1% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 1, 66,667 71,7 34,37-2% 8% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -% -31% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -% 18% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 8: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 9: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 2 12 Labour Cereal (Maize) Labour/Cereal TOT Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 1: Goat Local Quality Figure 11: Exchange Rate Figure 12: Water Drum Figure 13: Firewood Bundle
6 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 12,6 42,19 31,818 32,836 1,23-22% 3% 163% Imported Red Rice 1kg 9,29 26,7 19,4 19,918 9,377-2% 2% 11% Petrol 1 litre 1,3 4, 33,23 32,927 1,66-18% -2% 119% Sugar 9,618 36,818 23,432 23,636 11,146-36% 1% 146% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 19,22 7, 43,727 4,4 21,1-2% 4% 133% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,8 23,29 18,68 18,727 8,81-2% 4% 112% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,72 14, 7,2 8,6 3,992-39% 19% 132% Cereal Prices Red Sorghum 1kg 2,27 12, 7,898 7,9 3,11-4% -4% 244% White Maize 1kg 2,812 13,614 8,864 8,88 4,12-3% % 216% Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,3,346 7,8,682 12,9,9 13,864,2 6,96,24 83% 7% 29% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,464,4 2,194,37 3,93,7 4,269,7 2,31,371 9% 8% 192% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 8,18 26,68 32,91 28,73 13,49 8% -11% 249% Goat Export Quality (Head) 47,37 1,387, 1,788,636 1,829, 87,16 32% 2% 3% Goat Local Quality (Head) 291, ,9 1,292,364 1,3,99 642,638 73% % 364% Charcoal kg 44,32 131,23 143,636 13,91 72,738 17% 7% 248% Cowpeas 1 kg 6,12 9,2 22,63 21,7 1,224-63% -2% 233% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 21,947 99,614 91,477 14,273 49,11 % 14% 37% Firewood Bundle 1,723,636 6,318 6,27 3, 16% 3% 279% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 23,268 82,643 6,833 69,117 32,78-16% % 197% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,297 29,618 22,34 22,471 1,91-24% 1% 38% Cement kg - 34,6 314,833 34,74 168,679 3% 13% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 278,889 24,167 37,2 146,6 1% 21% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga , ,7 177, 84,31-21% 2% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 11, 11,7 11,7,467 6% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 49,49 4,7 6,6 26,72 13% 4% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 33,7 297, 289, ,623 -% -3% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 839, 79, ,4 3,742-12% -3% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 219,17 293, ,37 1,91 4% 8% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 99, ,7 129,92 61,729 31% % - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % 19% 38% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % 9% 3% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 14: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates 14 Figure 1: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 2 Labour Cereal (Sorghum) Labour/Cereal TOT Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) 2 2 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 16: Goat Local Quality Figure 17: Exchange Rate Figure 18: Water Drum Figure 19: Firewood Bundle 6
7 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 1,72 38,417 3,48 29,767 14,63-23% -2% 182% Imported Red Rice 1kg 7,78 24,42 14,917 1,733 7,38-3% % 12% Petrol 1 litre 12,442 37,42 31, 29,633 13,999-2% -6% 138% Sugar 7,628 33,917 21, 21,367 1,66-37% -1% 18% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 14,86 48,42 34,48 34,33 16,33-28% % 137% Wheat Flour 1kg 7,429 21,167 14,792 18,167 8,44-14% 23% 14% Wheat Grain 1kg 2,499 23,417 8,333 6,667 3,72-72% -2% 167% Cereal Prices Red Sorghum 1kg 2,19 18,1 8,311 8,733 4, -2% % 247% White Maize 1kg 2,367 9,132,238,416 2,477-41% 3% 129% Camel Local Quality (Head) 4,12,98 13,92, 1,6, 17,98, 8,2,28 28% 1% 334% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,333,996 3,712, 4,83, 3,72, 1,769,81 % -23% 179% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre,723 19,21 21,292 23,22 1,83 18% 8% 32% Goat Export Quality (Head) 2,67 1,2, 1,76,2 2,369, 1,127,28 3% 3% 31% Goat Local Quality (Head) 361,273 1,88,7 1,24,83 1,3,667 71,318 38% 2% 316% Charcoal kg 4,1 128,444 17,43 134,33 63,98 % 2% 232% Cowpeas 1 kg,6,27 19,322 22,313 1,16-6% 1% 31% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 21,237 66,28 64, 64,2 3,44-3% % 22% Firewood Bundle 2,13,333 6,417,833 2,67 9% -9% 19% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 2,129 67,83 3,642 6,233 26,6-17% % 179% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,61 29,188 22,88 22,822 1,78-22% % 37% Cement kg - 31, 22, 212,2 1,861-3% -4% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 7, 692, 68, 323,432-3% -2% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,2 86,9 84,4 39,88-43% -3% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 12,667 12,7 12,6,89-1% -1% - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 49,12,62 48,2 22,86-2% -% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 31,833 22,83 26, ,921-17% 3% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 621,7 8, 94,6 282,8-4% 2% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 7,3 46,7 47,32 22,414-17% 1% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 67,83 76,667 68,667 32,71 2% -1% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -4% 32% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 16% 82% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 2: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 21: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Labour Cereal (Maize) Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2 2 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 22: Goat Local Quality Figure 23: Exchange Rate Figure 24: Water Drum Figure 2: Firewood Bundle 7
8 Regional analysis:banadir Region -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 9,8 36,6 26,667 26,33 12,286-29% -2% 172% Imported Red Rice 1kg 8,32 2,4 14,313 16,217 7,616-36% 13% 9% Petrol 1 litre 11, 34,2 26,87 2,867 12,27-24% -4% 12% Sugar 6,97 3, 19,667 18,7 8,797-38% -% 168% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 11,662 43,617 34,83 33,3 1,767-24% -2% 186% Wheat Flour 1kg 7,491 18,183 13,48 16,933 7,96-7% 26% 126% Wheat Grain 1kg 3,92 14, 11,283 11,289,271-19% % 188% Cereal Prices Red Sorghum 1kg 2,331 1,369,914,74 2,631-63% -3% 146% White Maize 1kg 2,427 11,874 9,96 7,363 3,43-38% -19% 23% Camel Local Quality (Head),67, 11,, Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,87, 3,, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 4,8 19,983 22,2 22,33 1,383 1% -1% 34% Goat Export Quality (Head) - 1,6, 2,6, 2,66, 1,26,481 66% 2% - Goat Local Quality (Head) 622, 1,36, 2,68,7 2,12, 1,8,8 6% 2% 241% Charcoal kg 1, 19,633 17,83 17,33 83,178 1% % 7% Cowpeas 1 kg 4,966 9,74 19,892 17,9 8,44-7% -1% 261% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 9, 87,917 12, 19, 1,76 24% 6% 83% Firewood Bundle 42,2 7,67 7,629 8, 3,76 6% % -81% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 18,9 66,483 8,12 7,7 27,33-13% -1% 2% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,829 28,19 22,27 22,48 1,8-2% % 33% Cement kg - 238,4 178,22 172,77 82,71-28% -3% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 32, 286, ,6 1,333-32% -23% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,33 88,8 86,67 4,849-38% -3% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 9,8 1,7 1,767,23 1% % - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 39,12 3,667,2 26,31 42% 6% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 33, , 193,667 92,43-4% 3% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 86,18 478,42 47, ,491-22% -4% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 144,8 123,467 12,8 7,32-17% -3% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 78,333 9, 1, 47,716 28% 6% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 31% -4% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 27% 12% Consumer Price Index % -1% - Purchasing Power Index % 1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 26: Bakara: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate Figure 27: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates, Staple Cereal Prices and Relative Purchasing Power Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Labour Cereal (Maize) Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 28: Goat Local Quality Figure 29: Exchange Rate Figure 3: Wheat Flour Figure 31: Fresh Camel Milk 8
9 Regional analysis: Central Regions -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 11,94 4,7 32,1 31,48 1,234-23% -2% 172% Imported Red Rice 1kg 9,36 3,9 2,6 21,28 1,266-31% 3% 136% Petrol 1 litre 12,743 3,1 27,4 26,4 12,76-2% -4% 17% Sugar 9,28 37,3 24,9 23,733 11,461-36% -% 16% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 18,92 6,3 46, 44,4 21,28-26% -3% 13% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,619 24,1 17,1 17,467 8,48-28% 2% 13% Wheat Grain 1kg 7, 17,688 1, 1,22 7,217-1% % 1% Cereal Prices Red Sorghum 1kg 4,87 18,6 11,9 11,8,41-38% -3% 141% White Maize 1kg 4,98 18,8 14,1 12,642 6,8-33% -1% 14% Camel Local Quality (Head) 2,411,84 8,31,2 1,32, 1,28,,9,824 28% % 326% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,72, 2,22, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 12,617 44,6 32, 29,88 14,4-33% -8% 137% Goat Export Quality (Head) 399,81 1,72, 1,2,833 1,634,167 79,919 4% 7% 39% Goat Local Quality (Head) 288,69 1,92, 1,266, 1,328,8 647,171 22% % 36% Charcoal kg 4,18 18,2 177, 189,267 92,94 % 7% 249% Cowpeas 1 kg 7,737 2,4 24,7 23,16 11,181-6% -6% 199% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 27,8 89, 83,7 81,6 39,648-8% -3% 194% Firewood Bundle 3,8 38,2 34, 39,2 18,99 2% 1% 99% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 27,642 96, 89, 88,8 43,1-8% % 221% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,42 29,72 22,2 22,22 1,724-2% 1% 39% Cement kg - 372, 282,788 28, ,81-23% 1% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 426, 372, 33, 171,8-17% -% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,4 122,27 116,667 6,73-29% -% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 17,438 1,7 1, 7,27-14% -% - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 2,7 47,9 47,8 23,184-9% % - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 341,7 292, 31,933 11,39-9% 6% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 834,2 68, ,8 33,446-17% % - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 12,4 113,7 86, 41,816-44% -24% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 131, 134, 128,133 62,31-2% -4% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -6% 2% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 2% 9% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Kg) % -4% 81% Consumer Price Index % -3% - Purchasing Power Index % 3% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 32: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 33: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 2 12 Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Labour Cereal (Rice) Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2 2 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 34: Goat Local Quality Figure 3: Exchange Rate Figure 36: Water Drum Figure 37: Firewood Bundle 9
10 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 1,43 3,12 24,7 23, 11,132-33% -% 134% Imported Red Rice 1kg 7,427 23,7 18,63 17,3 8,168-27% -4% 133% Petrol 1 litre 1,163 31,2 21,87 2, 9,722-34% -6% 12% Sugar 8,72 32,263 22,62 21, 1,176-33% -% 146% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 18,281 8,87 43,188 39,6 18,8-33% -8% 117% Wheat Flour 1kg 8,12 21,7 16,87 16, 7,71-26% -% 1% Wheat Grain 1kg 8,8 2,97 22, 28,12 13,342 8% 2% 22% Cereal Prices Red Sorghum 1kg 6,97 3, 22,12 2,333 9,618-32% -8% 192% White Maize 1kg 6,442 2, 19, 19,2 9,76-6% -2% 198% Camel Local Quality (Head) 3,193,611 14,42, 16,131,2 1,94, 7,618,211 11% -1% 399% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,94,2 7,6, - 7,, 3,84,42-1% - 28% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 14,94 39,1 39,292 3,9 17,82-8% -9% 141% Goat Export Quality (Head) 437,887 1,648,7 1,2, 1,616, 772,246-2% 6% 269% Goat Local Quality (Head) 399,933 1,341,2 1,42, 1,494, 713,937 11% % 274% Charcoal kg 8,8 37,37 362, 36, 172,196 1% -1% 3% Cowpeas 1 kg 1,338 66,833 38,667 34,933 16,96-48% -1% 238% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 4, 111,2 122, 122, 8,447 1% % 169% Firewood Bundle 7,18 29,2 4, 4, 21,47 4% % 27% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 3,93 96,63 87,813 88, 42,197-8% 1% 186% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 16,874 3,12 21, 21,34 1,99-29% 2% 26% Cement kg - 244,63 19, ,4 87,76-2% -4% - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 486,2 44,62 426, 23,1-12% -3% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,12 176,7 177,8 84,877-26% 1% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 12,62 12, 12,2,731-3% -2% - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 44,63 39,688 39, 18,779-1% % - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 192, 19, ,9 82,3-1% 8% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 497,2 83, , 291,919 23% % - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 23,2 168,12 169,9 81,12-28% 1% - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 271,2 223, , 17,197-17% 1% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 4% 16% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 9% 6% Consumer Price Index % -7% - Purchasing Power Index % 7% - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 38: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Figure 39: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power 14 2 Price per Unit (SoSh) SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR SOSH Labour Cereal (Rice) Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 2 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 4: Goat Local Quality Figure 41: Exchange Rate Figure 42: Water Drum Figure 43: Firewood Bundle 1
11 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions -Year Average (23-7) Nominal Price Real (Deflated) Price Same Year -year avrg (23-7) Diesel 1 litre 3,77,9 7,4 6,972,19 17% -1% 8% Imported Red Rice 1kg 3,7 4,84 4,99 4,96 3,897 2% -1% 62% Petrol 1 litre 4,77,9 7,29 7,284,77 23% % 9% Sugar 3,262 6,7 6,,984 4,722-11% -1% 83% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 7,489 11, 12,76 13,4 1,49 13% 2% 74% Wheat Flour 1kg 3,46 4,44 4,17 4,336 3,394-2% 4% 42% Wheat Grain 1kg 2,93 3,788 2,844 3,1 2,33-2% 6% 44% Cereal Prices White Sorghum 1kg 1,883 3,6 3, 3,68 2,77-2% 2% 89% Yellow Maize 1kg 1,914 3,762 3,73 3,832 2,988 2% 3% 1% Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,448,269 1,69,833 2,649, 2,792,67 2,249,936 6% % 93% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 96,368 1,313,7 1,89,333 1,896,967 1,28,64 44% % 19% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 4,24,16,4,1 4,34 7% 2% 3% Goat Export Quality (Head) 18,923 33,7 422,2 466,86 376,127 39% 11% 11% Goat Local Quality (Head) 144,367 23,9 286,27 313,76 22,749 24% 1% 117% Charcoal kg 2,899 34,7 4,3 4,2 32,4 19% 1% 94% Cowpeas 1 kg 4,94 8,38 9,388 9,7 7,717 21% 3% 98% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 26,784 33,4 4,4 4,444 32,492 21% % 1% Firewood Bundle 3,37 2,833 3,333 3,367 2,613 19% 1% % Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 17,371 24,37 2,63 24,72 19,82 1% -1% 42% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD) 6,3,49 6,31 6,27 4,93 14% -1% -4% Cement kg - 4,269 3,1 2,8 42,49 17% % - Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre - 19,9 87,1 9,88 73,137-17% 4% - Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga 26-44,,63 48,8 38,646 9% -4% - Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm - 2,781 3,2 4,1 3,24 47% 36% - Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre - 6,74 6,77 6,912,47 2% 2% - Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m - 7,17 91,7 94,64 76,167 26% 3% - Roofing Nails 1Kg - 176,1 193,1 189,4 12,644 8% -2% - Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft - 97, , ,16 12,374 31% % - Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm - 68,188 74,7 77,1 62,32 13% 3% - Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 1% -7% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 1% 34% Consumer Price Index % % - Purchasing Power Index % % - * Data has been collected since May 21 * Data has been collected since May 21 Price per Unit (SLSh) Figure 44: Imported commodity prices compared to exchange rates Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Jun-1 SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Figure 4: Trends in wage rates, staple cereal prices and relative purchasing power SLSH Oct-9 Dec-9 Feb-1 Apr-1 Labour Cereal (Rice) Labour/Cereal TOT Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 46: Goat Local Quality Figure 47: Exchange Rate Figure 48: Water Drum Figure 49: Firewood Bundle 11
12 Trends in Livestock Exports Table 2: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) (Jan-Sep)* Shoats 1,72,66 2,683,97 2,376,646 2,814,49 97,224 2,48,136 1,61,83 1,46 341,711 63,17 89,44 1,23,79 1,17,242 1,3,4 1,219,19 1,6,3 2,84,81 3,14,684 1,448,91 Cattle 173,4 167,128 6,127 66,939 92,213 89,967 63,263 2,973 37,47 84, ,82 148,11 8,631 88,143 8,1 88, 133,21 1, ,9 Camel 38,3 21,993 42,81,87 11,663 37,43 16,984 3,473 18,864 21,874,147,69 22,81 14,24 26,1 2,26 92,61 17,281 88,986 * Jan-Sep 212 cumulative livestock exports Figure : Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Ca?le Shoats YEAR Table 3: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) (Jan-Sep) Shoats 344, 24, ,47 494,32 17,2 633,669 71,4 48,83 1,412,4 1,483,49 1,166,48 1,94,89 1,777,283 1,22,8 1,236,77 1,19,44 1,333,478 1,26,3 796,921 Cattle 1,4 8,79 1,33 17,831 29,492 36,86 27,64 42,248 3,313 71,328 79,994 91,91 14,9 89,19 78,46 67,38 13,88 99,8 9,81 Camel,397 8,392 2,462 14,99 3,938 1,44 8,177 1,9 9,72 4,29 2,488 26,19 33,724 27,8 27,639 1,331 36,86 4,878 18,76 Figure 1: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR 12
13 Trends in Cereal Imports Table 4: Total Cereal Imports (Berbera,Bossaso,Elmaan) * Rice 66,419 43,41 63,464 7,687 74, ,6 18, ,67 1,17 198,11 166, ,7 171, ,41 272, ,94 Wheat flour 3,143 26,774,176 78, 134,42 128, ,442 11, 169,83 178,34 176, ,28 24, ,8 28, ,831 Pasta 2,1 2,4 8,44 11,71 26,72 3,42 29,273 38,749 39,13 2,81 41,331 38,441 86,372 12, ,849 19,78 Cereal Imports in Metric Tonnes Figure 2: Total Cereal Imports (Berbera,Bossaso and Elmaan) 3, Rice Wheat flour Pasta 2, 2, 1, 1,, Year * January-September 212 Cumulative Cereal Imports * Berbera data up to September 212 * Bossaso data up to September 212 * Elmaan data is up to July
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