Brexit and beyond: The changing world of Irish agrifood

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1 Brexit and beyond: The changing world of Irish agrifood ASA Ireland 2016 Annual Conference Kilkenny, September 9 Chris Horseman Agra Europe Part of: Informa Agribusiness Intelligence

2 After June , nothing will be quite the same again..

3 An Outline Brexit - what s happening now? What s going to happen next? Possible next steps The implications of Brexit - - for UK agri-food - - for Irish agri-food - - for the EU 3 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

4 Brexit means Brexit! (whatever that means.) Already sorted. Still to be resolved.. Dept for Exiting the EU created New Dept for International Trade created 4 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence Date for triggering Art.50 Timing of EU departure Desired model for future relationship with EU Domestic policy strategy (including agri-food) External trade policy (including agri-food) Decision on whether or not to remain within Customs Union Policy on immigration Degree of integration within EU single market Scottish opposition to Brexit Policy on N. Ireland / Rep of Ireland Pretty much everything else

5 Article 50 the formal trigger for Brexit Won t be triggered until early next year Not dependent on Parliamentary vote.. But Art. 50 is only the start of the process.. The end-point is: as yet ill-defined not solely dependent on UK (quite possibly) still some way into the future 5 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

6 What will Brexit mean for UK agri-food? (1) Probably lower overall levels of agricultural subsidy. and probably some redistribution of subsidies A unparalled opportunity to re-write domestic agricultural policy 6 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

7 Will farm subsidies be reduced post-brexit? The majority of Pillar 1 expenditure remains on direct payments, however there is little rationale for them. Direct payments are not targeted on any particular market failure, and provide little value for money for the taxpayer. Other forms of public expenditure can usually demonstrate greater benefit than direct payments. UK Government view of the SFP system DEFRA - Implementation of CAP reform in England. Evidence Paper October The direct payments to farmers in Pillar 1 of the CAP should be phased out, and there should be a parallel reduction in red tape and regulation in order to ensure a globally competitive farming sector. The Fresh Start Project: Manifesto for change. A new vision for the UK in Europe. January 2013 The truth of the matter is if we left the EU there would be an 18bn a year Brexit dividend, so could we find the money to spend 2bn a year on farming and the environment? Of course we could. Would we? Without a shadow of a doubt. George Eustice, Farming Minister, NFU Conference, February Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

8 What will Brexit mean for UK agri-food? (2) A very uncertain agri-food trading environment Full participation in the EU Single Market looking increasingly less likely Somewhere between EEA - and Canada + The FT 8 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

9 What will Brexit mean for Irish agri-food? (1) A significant risk to Irish agri-food export trade if the UK quits the Single Market. 9 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

10 Share of each EU member state s agri-food exports going to UK IR CY NL DK FR IT BE ES PO DE GR PT SW LT AS HU SK CZ BU MT LU FI RO LV HR SI EE 10 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

11 % of total Ireland s reliance on the UK market Beef Dairy Percentage of total exports, by value, 2015 Source: Agra Europe based on GTIS/Eurostat UK Rest of EU Rest of world 11 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

12 What will Brexit mean for Irish agri-food? (2) Disintegration of UK-Irish free trading zone (Very probably) reintroduction of controls on North-South border 12 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

13 What will Brexit mean for the EU and the CAP? (2) An existential challenge for the EU. Bigger budget contributions by every other member state (or a reduced budget) A Franco-German-Polish axis of influence? (Perhaps) a reversion to greater market & income support for farmers?... (Perhaps) funded by a scaling-down of Pillar Two 13 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

14 Thank you for your attention! 14 Agra Europe Agribusiness intelligence

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