Drought Indices in Europe

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1 Drought Indices in Europe Gregor Gregorič Environmental agency of Slovenia Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe Stefan Niemeyer Joint Research Center Institute for Environment and Sustainability

2 IPCC 4th Assessment report

3 Spain National Drought Observatory - Brings together all hydraulic Spanish authorities with responsibility for water management - a Knowledge Center on mitigation and monitoring of the effects of drought in the country. - Stakeholders: The eight inter-basin agencies under the General State Administration, seven river basin administration units, autonomous cities and communities and local authorities

4 Extracted from: Elisa Vargas, Drought Management in Spain (Zaragosa, July 2008)

5 Extracted from: Elisa Vargas, Drought Management in Spain (Zaragosa, July 2008)

6 Extracted from: Elisa Vargas, Drought Management in Spain (Zaragosa, July 2008)

7 East Europe: Use of aridity type indicators Example from Moldova (extracted from: S. Ciolan, Analysis of Drought evolution in Moldova, JRC- DMCSEE workshop, September 2009)

8 HTC Hydrothermal Coefficient (Selianinov, 1928)

9 HTC Hydrothermal Coefficient (Selianinov, 1928)

10 Palfai aridity/drought index (Hungary) PDI=c t *c p *c gw *PDI o Evaluation of PAI-PDI in Hungary: c t : temperature correction factor 6-9 => mild, c p : precipitation correction factor 8-10 => medium, c gw : groundwater corr. factor => heavy, 12< => extereme

11 Palfai aridity/drought index (Hungary) 2003 PAI/PDI depends heavily on weights prescribed for temperature and precipitation sums (optimized for summer crops in Hungary) Can it be transferred?

12 Palfai aridity/drought index (Romania) Extracted from: Elena Savin, Drought monitoring in Romania, JRC-DMCSEE workshop, September 2009 PAI k t k p k gw PAI 0 kt - temperature correction-factor kp precipitation correction-factor kgw ground water correction-factor t IV VIII PAI P X VIII T IV-VIII = April-August mean air temperature P X-VIII = sum of precipitation amounts (mm), monthly corrected by a weight factor depending on the plant water-requirement 0.1 in October 0.4 in November 0.5 in December-April period 0.8 in May 1.2 in June 1.6 in July 0.9 in August

13 Soil moisture deficit or surface water balance deficit Example: Slovenia Alpine precipitation map (avg. RR / day)

14 Soil moisture deficit or surface water balance deficit Example: Slovenia RR ETP ref Averaged over whole territory

15 Drought aftermath (example from 2006): Soil moisture deficit or surface water balance deficit - Aggregation to administrative units and limited number of classes - > Preparation of report for Administration for civil protection and disaster relief Example: Water situation report Monthly bulletin for England and Wales

16 Drought monitoring in Europe Italy Environmental research institute (Rome)

17 Drought monitoring in Europe Italy Provincial environmental agency Emilia-Romagna drought observatory

18 Drought monitoring in Europe Croatia NMHS

19 Drought monitoring in Europe Serbia NMHS

20 The Institute for Environment and Sustainability a Research Based Policy Support Provider

21 Development of a prototype of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) Contribution to the development of a global Early Warning System (EWS) for Desertification Development of benchmarks and indicators for drought, water scarcity, and desertification Training (assessment, monitoring, mitigation drought and desertification) Networking, in-house research, policy advice

22 Platform for drought detection and monitoring, forecasting, and information exchange Commonly agreed products (e.g. drought indices) Joint comparison and analysis of information Mutual exchange of knowledge & methodologies Direct up- and downscaling Multi-scale approach, integrating Continental level MS level Regional level Respecting INSPIRE principles Subsidiarity principle A European Drought Observatory European level information (+ platform) to be developed and managed at JRC National datasets managed at MS level Regional information processed by river basin / regional environmental authorities

23 EDO monthly precipitation anomaly (SPI)

24 Regional SPI timeseries for multiple periods Time series are calculated for all NUTS3 regions.

25 JRC, 2008 Regional Soil Moisture Anomaly wetter normal drier

26 Drought Water Scarcity Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007)414final EDO JRC yearly water scarcity indicators yearly aggregated drought indicators EEA WS&D-IS Global Drought Monitoring System European Reporting and Information System (WISE) Network Network

27 WS&D: Water exploitation index (WEI) Water consumption index (WCI) The water exploitation index (WEI), or withdrawal ratio, in a country is defined as the mean annual total abstraction of fresh water divided by the long-term average freshwater resources. It describes how the total water abstraction puts pressure on water resources. Thus it identifies those countries having high abstraction in relation to their resources and therefore are prone to suffer problems of water stress. The long-term average freshwater resource is derived from the long-term average precipitation minus the long-term average evapotranspiration plus the long-term average inflow from neighbouring countries. Water consumption index is the total consumption divided by the long term freshwater resources of a country. This index highlights those regions where higher consumptive uses are predominant.

28 Drought Management Centre for South-Eastern Europe Background October 2004: A Balkan Drought Workshop in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD April 2006: 2nd technical workshop in Sofia (BG). Participants: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO Outcomes: 1) Framework for the preparation of a project proposal on the establishment of a Drought Management Centre for South- Eastern Europe (DMCSEE) within the context of the UNCCD, 2) Further steps towards the establishment of DMCSEE September 2006: Decision on DMCSEE host institution (procedure led by WMO as decided in Sofia).

29 Collaboration with JRC Agreement signed in 2008 Joint workshop on Drought monitoring was organized in September this year

30 Currently, DMCSEE is a TCP-SEE supported project! 15 partners from 9 countries Total project budget 2.2 M Not all countries participate! (not all countries are eligible) Project kick-off meeting: September 2009 Budapest Moving to implementation Environmental Agency of Slovenia Slovenia (lead partner) Slovenian Institute of Hop Research and Brewing Slovenia Hungarian Meteorological Service Hungary VITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Research Institute Hungary Directorate for Environmental Protection and Water Management of Lower Tisza District Hungary Institute of Soil Science Nikola Poushkarov Bulgaria National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgaria Agricultural university of Athens Greece GEORAMA (non- governmental and nonprofit organization) Greece Meteorological and Hydrological Service Croatia Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Serbia Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro Montenegro Hydrometeorological Service FYROM Institute for Energy, Water and Environment Albania

31 Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Overview of existing procedures for climatological mapping Can we do better than just using global datasets (such as GPCC)? (SPI calculated on GPCC data available on - Most countries have implemented climatological mapping procedures; can we use them for drought indices mapping? - Training in Budapest January/February

32 Foreseen outcomes of the TCP project Vulnerability assessment using interaction matrices method

33 Summary Locally developed indices are frequently used throughout European countries There is widespread use of common indices such as SPI, PDSI, soil moisture anomalies, precipitation deciles etc. JRC and EEA are preparing standardized common products DMCSEE assists in this efforts in order to include also SEE countries (mainly non-eu members)

34 DMCSEE dedicated session foreseen for next BALWOIS conference