TERRELL H. HOLDER Kentucky State University

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1 TERRELL H. HOLDER Kentucky State University

2

3 Complete Diets Crop Yields Annual Per Capita Intake Per Capita Production Requirement Available Agricultural Land in Each Ecoregion 2010 Census Data

4 Two Complete Diets Diet 1 Vegetarian with Dairy Products Diet 2 8 oz Meat & Eggs per day with Dairy Products Basket of 41 food commodities 2,300 Kcal per day Commodities can be produced in Kentucky Some fresh & some preserved Both diets meet USDA My Plate Daily Serving Recommendations

5 Two Complete Diets Daily servings Diet 1 (Veg) Diet 2 (Meat) Grains 7 Vegetables 4 Fruit 4 Dairy 3 Pulses & Nuts 5 Grains 7 Vegetables 4 Fruit 4 Dairy 3 Pulses & Nuts 2.5 Meat 7 Eggs 0.5

6 Crop Yields Hierarchy of methods 1. Three year average USDA publications for KY 2. Three year average USDA publications from neighboring states 3. Other publications from KY sources 4. UK Crop budgets 5. Market garden approach Commodity Yield (lbs acre -1 ) Corn (for grain) 7,392 Snap Beans 6,000 Wheat 3,880 Cucumber 11,250 Sorghum (syrup) 1,746

7 Annual Per Capita Intake Daily ration best thought of as a stew. Daily ration for each food is calculated based on the number of servings and weighted by preference within each food group. Daily ration of each commodity * 365 = Annual Intake Sample from other vegetables food group : Commodity 1 Serving Size (g) Energy/serving (Kcal) Preference Energy serving Weighted (Kcal ) BROCCOLI CABBAGE CAULIFLOWER CUCUMBER EGGPLANT ONIONS PEPPERS SNAP BEANS BEETS TOMATOES USDA Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, 4.1 (2010)

8 Annual Per Capita Intake Diet 1 (Vegetarian) Annual Intake = 663 kg Diet 2 (Meat) Annual Intake = 707 kg

9 Total Per Capita Food Production Requirement Annual intake * Loss Conversion Factor / YPUW = Gross Production Required Loss conversion factor considers: Food service and consumer loss Inedible portion Cooking loss Retail loss Yield per Unit Weight of Farm Commodity Milk = 100% Beef = 44% Wheat = 86% Range from 1.16 to 2.16 Range from 100% to 18%

10 Total Per Capita Food Production Requirement Sample loss conversion data: Commodity Annual Intake (g) Loss Conversion Factor Yield / Unit Weight of Farm Commodity Gross Per Capita Production Required (g) Broccoli, Fresh ,668 Wheat 44, ,647 Beef, Regular 7, ,354 Cucumber, Fresh ,485 Snap Beans, Fresh ,017 Sweet Corn, Fresh ,753 Tomatoes, Fresh ,708

11 Total Per Capita Food Production Requirement Diet 1 Vegetarian with Dairy Products Diet 2 8 oz Meat & Eggs per day with Dairy Products Annual Intake = 663 kg Loss Adjusted Production Required = 964 kg Annual Intake = 707 kg Loss Adjusted Production Required = 1,188 kg

12 Available Agricultural Land for each Ecoregion Land aggregated into three agricultural categories Land suitable for all crops Land suitable for perennial crops and hay only Land suitable for pasture only Model applied using two data sources: Land cover data from USDA-NASS, Cropland Data Layers Soil classification data from SSURGO Thematic Soil Data Layer with Land Capability Class 2 1. U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Research and Development Division, Geospatial Information Branch, Spatial Analysis Research Section (SARS) URL: 2. Kentucky Division of Geographic Information. USDA/NRCS May, 2005 URL:

13 2010 Census Census Kentucky Summary File 1. Data files and shapefiles Census blocks clipped to ecoregions 1. Census.gov, Summary File 1, Kentucky (2010).

14 Millions Population of Kentucky Ecoregions, Census ne 71sw Ecoregion 0.001

15 Annual Agricultural Land Requirement Per Capita Potential Agricultural Land in Each Ecoregion Human Carrying Capacity in Each Ecoregion Net Importing and Exporting Ecoregions

16 Annual Per Capita Land Requirement Vegetarian Diet a h p Total (acres) Omnivorous Diet a h p Total (acres) A per capita = Where Q = Annual Intake, L = Loss Conversion Factor, Y= Yield, i = plant commodity, R = Animal Feed Requirements, j = animal product, k = feed ingredient. Summary Equation after Peters, et al, (2005)

17 Acres Millions Current agricultural land use, by category, in Kentucky ecoregions (Derived from NASS Cropland Data Layers) All Crops Perennial Crops 1.00 Pasture ne 71sw Ecoregion

18 Potential agricultural land, by category, in Kentucky ecoregions (Derived from NRCS Soil Thematic Data Layer). Acres Millions All Crops Perennial Crops Pasture ne 71sw Ecoregion

19 Carrying Capacity (K) A conditional function was used to determine which land category was the limiting resource and calculate K. K = Summary equation after Peters, et al. (2005)

20 Agricultural land base and Annual per capita land requirement Is best quality land the limiting resource? Yes Carrying capacity is determined by the area of best quality land. No Is pasture land the limiting resource? Yes Carrying capacity is determined by the total area of land available. No Carrying capacity is limited by the area of land suitable for perennial crops and hay.

21 Millions Population (red dots) and carrying capacity (K) of Kentucky ecoregions, assuming modeled vegetarian or omnivorous diets (Diet 1 & 2, respectively) grown on currently used agricultural land (USDA-NASS Cropland Data layers, ) K Diet K Diet 2 Population ne 71sw Ecoregions

22 Importing and Exporting Ecoregions Current Land Use (Both Diets) Food Exporting Regions Food Importing Regions

23 Millions Population (red dots) and carrying capacity (K) of Kentucky ecoregions, assuming modeled vegetarian or omnivorous diets (Diet 1 & 2, respectively) grown on all land with agricultural potential (USDA-NRCS National Soil Survey Handbook, title 430-VI. Part 22.02) K Diet 1 K Diet 2 Population ne 71sw Ecoregions

24 Importing and Exporting Ecoregions All potential land (Vegetarian Diet) Exporting Regions Importing Regions Marginal Regions

25 Importing and Exporting Ecoregions All Potential Land (Omnivorous Diet) Level III Ecological Regions of Kentucky Exporting Regions Importing Regions Marginal Regions Interior Plateau North East (71NE) Western Allegheny Plateau (70) Mississippi Valley Loess Plains (74) Interior River Valleys and Hills (72) Interior Plateau South West (71SW) Southwestern Appalachians (68) Central Appalachians (69) Mississippi Valley Alluvial Plain (72)

26 Importing and Exporting Ecoregions All Potential Land (Omnivorous Diet) Optimistic model design Meat diet requires more land Land conservation priority Ecoregional context Local food as interregional exchange

27 Questions? Acknowledgements KYSU and MES staff Dr. Michael Bomford Ken Bates Dr. Demetrio Zurakis

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