2013 Outlook on China's Pork Consumption

Transcription

1 2013 World Agricultural Outlook Conference, June 6-7, Outlook on China's Pork Consumption Zheng Li, Lu Fengbin, Yang Cuihong 1 (presenting) Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences 1

2 Background Main contents China's pork consumption: characteristics & determinant factors China's pork consumption forecast for

3 Comparison: China s Pork consumption and other main countries China's pork consumption and production account for around half of world total Data source: USDA, FAS, China Statistical Yearbook, China Livestock Industry Yearbook, China Rural Statistical Yearbook 3

4 1000 Metric Tons Pork consumption: China, USA, EU-27( ) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, China EU-27 United States 4

5 Per capita pork consumption: China, World average, the United States, EU kg Per capita pork consumption China USA EU-27 The whole world China is larger than the world average, the USA Gap between China and EU is gradually narrowing 5

6 1000 Metric Tons Characteristics of China s pork consumption The total and per capita pork consumption in China goes up quickly on the whole per capita pork consumption % pork consumption

7 1000 Metric Tons China s pork imports grows rapidly, pork exports are steady, net imports rises quickly import export Pork import Pork export 7

8 Major Determinant Factors of China s Pork Consumption Demand: development of the catering trade, slaughtering and meat processing industry; Economic factors: per capita GDP, per capita household income, price of pork and related products(beef, lamb, eggs), feed price Population: urbanization ratio, population growth rate, average number of the household, share of population aged 15 to 65, average age Emergency, epidemic, government policies 8

9 1,000 Metric Tons China s outdoor pork consumption accounts for a high share in recent decades % Pork consumption at home Outdoor pork consumption The proportion of outdoor consumption 9

10 China's 2013 pork consumption forecast(1) Positive factors Increase of households' income Rapid urbanization Increasing population Drop in pork price in 2013 Substitution effect: pork substitution for poultry due to bird flu Negative factors Diversified meat consumption structure Epidemic (blue-ear disease, foot-and-mouth disease, etc) 10

11 China's 2013 pork consumption forecast(2) Forecasting methods Integrated Forecasting Method ( ARIMA, VAR, VEC, Multiple regression model ) Main dependent variables : Rate of population growth Per capita disposable income Per capita GDP Pork price Feed price Dummy epidemic variables Results:Total pork consumption in China will be 54.5 million tons in 2013, 1775 thousand tons or 3.37% higher than

12 2013 per capita pork consumption forecast Forecasting methods Integrated Forecasting Method ( ARIMA, VAR, VEC, Multiple regression model ) Main dependent variables : Rate of population growth Per capita disposable income Per capita GDP Pork price Feed price Dummy epidemic variables Result:Per capita pork consumption in China will be 40 kg in 2013, 1.1 kg more than 2012 with growth rate of 2.83% 12

13 Outlook on China's pork consumption Total consumption will continue to grow, but the growth rate will decrease. Outdoor and meat products consumption will dominate the mode of pork consumption. Rural pork consumption will have a higher potential to grow. Urban meat consumption structure tend to be diversified, pork consumption growth is slowing, and will be less than that of the rural. 13

14 Thanks for your attention! 14