2017 Tennessee Agricultural Outlook. Aaron Smith Crop Economist University of Tennessee Extension
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1 2017 Tennessee Agricultural Outlook Aaron Smith Crop Economist University of Tennessee Extension
2 Overview Review of the Tennessee Agricultural Economy Crops Livestock 2017 Estimated Net Returns Principle Row Crops Data Analysis Relative prices General price outlook
3 Tennessee Cash Farm Receipts and Share of Commodity Exports, Avg Growth ( ) Ranking in US 2015 Share of Commodity Exports 2015 Value of Cash Receipts (mill $) All Commodities 3,290 3,743 4,092 4,255 3, % 32 Crops 1,881 2,225 2,542 2,449 2, % % Animals & Animal 13.4% Products 1,409 1,518 1,550 1,806 1, % 32 Top 10 in 2015 Soybeans % % Cattle & Calves % % Broilers % % Corn % % Cotton % % Dairy Prod, Milk % % Wheat % % Hay % 20 n/a Tobacco % 3 5.7% Vegetables & Melons a % % Exports All Commodities 1,478 1,481 1,712 1,748 1,464 <1% 29
4 Indicators of the Tennessee Farm Sector s Financial Well-Being, (mill $) Value of Production $4,343 $4,370 $5,099 $4,885 $4,581 Net Farm Income $1,180 $752 $1,414 $694 $729 Interest Expense $250 $240 $191 $201 $211 Market Value of Farmland, Buildings, and Equipment $37,908 $38,368 $38,913 $39,240 $39,785 Capital Consumption $427 $637 $697 $920 $768 Total Expenses $3,303 $3,794 $3,834 $4,313 $3,916 Ratios Net Farm Income Ratio Capital Consumption Ratio Operating Expense Ratio Interest Expense Ratio
5 Scorecard Indicators of Positive Progress for Tennessee Agriculture Indicator Year 2 Year 1 Percent Change Goal Strategic Plan Recommendation Percent of Cropland that is Idled (%) 6.06% 6.88% -0.82% Decrease Index of Crop Yield Per Acre (6 major crops) a % Increase Storage Capacity (mill bu) % Increase 1 TAEP (mill $) $16.85 $ % Increase 2 Inflation Adjusted Values by CPI ( =100) $16.01 $ % Increase Economic Activity from Farming and Associated Activities (Million $) $4,694 $3, % Increase 3 Inflation Adjusted Values b $4,526 $3, % Increase Economic Activity from Food and Beverage Processing (Million ) $24,411 $21, % Increase 3 Inflation Adjusted Values $23,539 $21, % Increase Percent of Agricultural Commodity Exports to Out-of-State (%) 53.42% 55.13% -1.71% Decrease 3 % of Food and Beverage Processing Inputs Imported from Out of State 73.49% 65.52% +7.97% Decrease Graduates of Master Producer Programs (Cumulative total since 1993) 18,067 Increase Four Year Agricultural Degrees Awarded (No./Yr.) c % Increase 4
6 2017 Proposed Project: Quantifying the Economic Impact of Agriculture on the Local (County) Economy Total Economic Impact for agricultural by commodity (direct + indirect or spinoff) Number of Jobs (on and off-farm) Farmer and worker income (taxable income) Contribution to Gross County Product (Gross Domestic Product at the county level) Output (value of total sales or total revenue) Output multiplier at the county-level (i.e., $1 of revenue in soybeans generates $xx s of activity in the county economy). Results will be available to the public to highlight the importance of Agriculture to the county and state s economy!
7 LIVESTOCK
8 Fall 2016 Drought September 6, 2016 November 15, 2016 January 3, 2017
9 2,500 Tennessee Cattle Inventory Numbers, ,000 1,000 head 1,500 1, (1,000 head): Beef Cows 896 Dairy Cows 44 All cattle and calves 1, Beef Cows Dairy Cows All cattle and calves
10 Broilers (million head) Tennessee Poultry Inventory, BROILERS LAYERS ROOSTERS & OTHER Layers/Roosters (million head)
11 Mil. Head 140 JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual = 92 Million Head +3.2 Percent Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-01 08/04/16
12 $ Per Cow COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head Estimated Cow-Calf Returns Cattle Inventory Jan 1 80 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center C-P-67 12/29/16
13 $ Per Cwt TENNESSEE LB. STEER PRICES 2016, 2017 and 5-year average, Weekly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011/2015 Avg
14 $ Per Cwt. TENNESSEE LB. STEER PRICES 2016, 2017 and 5-year average, Weekly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2011/2015 Avg
15 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center P-P-02 12/30/16
16 Tennessee Livestock Summary Repercussions of the drought are yet to be fully realized Number of dairies has continued to contract Prices Cattle prices lower than 2016 Dairy prices steady to slightly higher Poultry prices steady
17 ROW CROPS
18 Tennessee Corn * 5-Yr Avg Change 5-Yr Avg to 2016 Change Harv Ac (mill) % 10% Prod (mill bu) % 1% Yield (bu/acre) % -8% Tennessee trend line yield is increasing at approximately 2 bu/acre/year
19 Price ($/bu) Jan-00 TN Monthly Cash Corn Prices, Feb-01 Mar-02 Apr-03 May-04 Jun-05 Jul-06 Aug-07 Sep-08 Oct-09 Nov-10 Dec-11 Jan-13 Feb-14 Mar-15 Lower-middle Memphis North west Upper-middle Apr-16 Data Source: USDA-AMS -
20 Price Change ($/bu) TN Cash Corn Price Change Jan to June (+ = Price Increase; - = Price Decrease) 9 years prices increased 4 years prices decreased 4 years mixed Average Price Change: LM: Memphis: NW: UM: Lower-middle Memphis North west Upper-middle
21 Change in Price ($/bu) Change in Cash Corn Price Jun to Dec (+ = Price Increase; - = Price Decrease) 7 years prices increased 8 years prices decreased 2 years mixed Average Price Change: LM: Memphis: NW: UM: Lower-middle Memphis North west Upper-middle Data Source: USDA-AMS -
22 Tennessee Soybeans * 5-Yr Avg Change 5-Yr Avg to 2016 Change Harv Ac (mill) % -5% Prod (mill bu) % -9% Yield (bu/acre) % -4% Tennessee trend line yield is increasing at approximately 0.4 bu/acre/year
23 Price ($/bu) Tennessee Monthly Cash Soybean Prices, Lower-Middle Memphis Northwest Upper-middle
24 Price Change ($/bu) Tennessee Cash Soybean Price Change Jan to Jun (+ = Price Increase; - = Price Increase) 10 years prices increased 3 years prices decreased 4 years mixed Average Price Change: LM: Memphis: NW: UM: Lower-Middle Memphis Northwest Upper-middle
25 Price Change ($/bu) Change in Cash Soybean Prices Jun to Dec (+ = Price Increase; - = Price Decrease) 6 years prices increased 10 years prices decreased 1 year mixed Average Price Change: LM: -$0.82 Memphis: -$0.66 NW: -$0.60 UM: -$ Lower-Middle Memphis Northwest Upper-middle
26 Tennessee Cotton * 5-Yr Avg Change 5-Yr Avg to 2016 Change Harv Acres (mill) % 79% Prod (thous 480 lb % 84% bales) Yield (lbs/acre) ,046 1, % 3% In 2016, Tennessee had an all-time record yield for cotton
27 Cotton Prices Cents/lb Jan-15 2-Mar-15 2-May-15 2-Jul-15 2-Sep-15 2-Nov-15 2-Jan-16 2-Mar-16 2-May-16 2-Jul-16 2-Sep-16 Southeast North Delta US Average 2-Nov-16 2-Jan-17
28 Tennessee Wheat * 5-Yr Avg Change 5-Yr Avg to 2016 Change Harv Ac (mill) % -15% Prod (mill bu) % -9% Yield (bu/acre) % 7% In 2016, good yields/low prices
29 Soybean/Corn Price Ratio Tennessee Price Ratios for Primary Spring Planted Row Crops, Soybean/Corn Soybean/Corn Avg Cotton/Corn Cotton/Corn Avg Cotton/Soybean Cotton/Soybean Cotton/Corn and Cotton/Soybean Price Ratio
30 2017 Tennessee Crop Summary Relative prices currently favor cotton and soybeans Soybean prices could change rapidly with South American harvest gearing up Cotton up Likely price range $0.65-$0.80 Corn flat potentially local pricing opportunities in early 2017 Likely price range $3-$4.50 Soybeans flat to down Likely price range $8-$10.50 Wheat flat Likely price range $4-$4.75
31 TENNESSEE ROW CROP SAFETY NET
32 Tennessee Farm Safety Net Payments Commodity program payments to Tennessee producers for the 2015 crop year were: $39.7 million from ARC $3.5 million from PLC up substantially from 2014 ($7.1 million for ARC and $0.2 million for PLC) For , Tennessee has 140,355 acres enrolled in the CRP program In 2015, the EQIP program had total obligations (payments and cost share) to Tennessee producers of $26.9 (up 5.5% from 2014)
33 Tennessee Crop Insurance For the 2016 crop year: 23,961 policies were sold covering liabilities of $846.7 million Total crop insurance premiums were $94.1 million ($62.6 million paid by the federal government and $31.5 million paid by producers) Crop insurance is an essential risk management tool used by producers to protect against price, revenue, and production risk during the growing season.
34 Tennessee Crop Insurance 2016 Policies Liabilities (million Premium (Total; million) Indemnity (million) Corn 1,980 $268 $28 $7.4 Cotton 2,707 $79 $7.8 $1.0 Soybeans 6,866 $324 $35 $5.6 Wheat 3,702 $57 $6.6 $2.6
35 2017 ESTIMATED NET RETURNS PRINCIPLE ROW CROPS
36 Data Management Primary Data Data collected by you Secondary Data Data from an alternative source and used to make a decision for your operation (USDA, Extension ) Data Management Steps: Collect Organize Actionable Decision Analyze Interpret Results are only as accurate as the underlying data!
37 Farm Financial Management and Benchmarking Why? Evaluate current financial health Tight margins Variability in input prices Assist in obtaining financing Plan for the present and future Capital expenditure planning Increased input efficiency Compare to industry peers
38 Benchmarking Reports
39 2017 Summary of Revenue, Variable and Fixed Expenses, and Profit or Loss for each Commodity and Production Method Variable Commodity & Revenue Fixed Expenses Expenses Production Process ($/Acre) ($/Acre) ($/Acre) Profit (Loss) Corn NT Non-Irr $ $ $56.13 $56.16 Corn CT Non-Irr $ $ $60.75 $43.77 Corn Irr $ $ $ $59.30 Soybeans NT Non-Irr $ $ $62.33 $33.99 Soybeans Irr $ $ $ ($26.46) Wheat & Soybean DC $ $ $98.58 $68.55 Wheat $ $ $65.17 ($137.68) Cotton CT $ $ $ $6.27 Cotton NT $ $ $ $25.78 Cotton IRR $ $ $ ($86.65) G. Sorghum NT $ $ $62.33 ($77.67) G. Sorghum CT $ $ $66.95 ($83.36) Canola $ $ $75.40 ($86.48) Cash prices projected at: corn = $3.65, soybean = $9.80, wheat = $4.25, cotton = $0.72.
40 % chance of NR over 0.60 specified costs being negative % chance of NR over 0.40 specified costs being less than $56/acre % chance of NR over 0.20 specified costs being less than $182/acre $400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 $600 Net Returns ($/acre) Probability (NR<X) 2017 Tennessee 150 bu No-Till Corn Net Return CDF (Price=$3.65)
41 % chance of NR over 0.60 specified costs being negative % chance of NR over 0.40 specified costs being between $0-$34/acre % chance of NR over 0.20 specified costs being less 0.10 than $193/acre $400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 NetReturns ($/acre) Probability (NR<X) 2017 Tennessee 45 bu No-Till Soybean Net Returns CDF (Price=$9.80)
42 % chance of NR over 0.60 specified costs being 0.50 negative % chance of NR over specified costs being less 0.30 than -$137/acre $500 -$400 -$300 -$200 -$100 $0 $100 $200 $300 Net Returns ($/acre) Probability (NR<X) 2017 Tennessee 65 bu Wheat Net Returns CDF (Price=$4.25
43 % chance of NR over 0.60 specified costs being negative %chance of NR over 0.40 specified costs being less than $26/acre % chance of NR over specified costs being less 0.20 than $190/acre $600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 $600 Net Returns ($/Acre) Probability (NR<X) 2017 Tennessee 950 lb No-Till Cotton Net Returns CDF (Price=$0.72)
44 Key Issues in 2017 Trade Agreements Agriculture Supplier Mergers Environmental Regulations Managing Data Next Farm Bill Nutrition and production ag Connections between commodity, crop insurance, and conservation titles Taxes and cash versus accrual accounting Means testing Income stabilization accounts
45 Thank You QUESTIONS
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