Bord Bia DAFM Live Exporters Meeting

Transcription

1 Bord Bia DAFM Live Exporters Meeting Joe Burke January 2018 AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

2 Livestock Review and Outlook Export Performance 2017 Herd Profile / Calf Births Market Situation: Netherlands Italy Spain

3 2017 Live Exports reach 188,000 hd (+30%) 200,000 Finished/Adult Cattle 150,000 Weanlings/Stores 100,000 Calves 50, Calf exports 40% higher, at 101,600 hd Weanlings & stores up 20%, to 59,200 hd Adult cattle grew by 17%, to 27,100 hd

4 Live Cattle Exports 2017 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland to w/e. 30 th Dec. (head) % change Total NI GB Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Other EU Turkey Other int. mkt.s 145,437 24,531 6,785 18,558 37,008 27, ,212 19,269 2, ,870 26,073 5,851 19,441 50,451 41,848 5,525 5,709 30,562 2, % +6% -14% +5% +36% +55% +1500% -38% +60% -7%

5 Live Sheep Exports 2017 Distribution of Live Sheep Exports from Ireland 2016 vs 2017 (000 head) % change Total Belgium France Germany Italy UK Netherlands Singapore 48,036 8,507 21,142 4,901 1,677 2,094 7,844 1,871 35,349 4,653 15,837 5, ,109 8, % -45% -25% +5% -72% -47% +3% -100% 75% of live sheep exports (26,623) occurred in August Factory throughput of sheep reached a 10-year high of 2.95m.

6 Herd Profile / Calf Births AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

7 000 head National Cattle Herd ( ) 1,400 1,200 1, Dairy Cows Suckler Cows

8 2,400,000 Calf Registrations up 1.3% in 2017 (w/e. 15/12) +30,000 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200, , , , ,000 0 Source - ICBF / AIM Total Dairy Suckler

9 800, , , , , , , ,000 0 Source - AIM Calf Registrations by Breed Jan-Nov 2017 vs 16-6% +2% +11% -7% +18% % -10% FR LM CH AA HE SIM BB

10 Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1 st of November 1,200,000-9,000 1,000,000 +8, , ,000 Source: AIM , , ,

11 Female Beef Cattle No.s by Age Category on 1 st of November 800, , , , , , , , ,000 Source: AIM +5, ,

12 Average Prices: Weanling Bulls /kg LW Source - IFJ Martwatch Top 1/3 Average Bottom 1/ % +0.4% -2.2% Average Prices of male dairy calves /hd each spring Source - ICBF

13 The Netherlands AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

14 Live Calf Imports NL ( ) 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , *2017 (up to week 49) (source: RVO)

15 Live Calf Imports NL ( ) Origin Week Week %Change YOY Bel/Lux 44,995 59, % Germany 522, ,619 +2% Denmark 27,048 22,746-16% Ireland ,137 35, % Estonia 11,517 14, % Latvia 25,180 24,928-1% Lithuania 13,618 9,065-33% Poland 15,448 2,915-81% Czech Republic 14,905 17, % Slovakia 284 1, % Total , ,230 +3% (source: RVO) Ireland is the third largest exporter of calves to NL after Germany and Bel/Lux

16 Dutch Calves (50+kg) Prices YEAR HIGH LOW /head 123/head /head 105/head (source: De Kalverhouder)

17 Dutch White Veal Prices YEAR HIGH LOW /kg 4.05/kg /kg 3.85/kg (source: De Kalverhouder)

18 Dutch Rosé Veal (<8 months) Prices YEAR HIGH LOW /kg 3.38/kg /kg 3.20/kg (source: De Kalverhouder

19 Dutch Rosé Veal (>8 months) Prices YEAR HIGH LOW /kg 3.23/kg /kg 3.05/kg (source: De Kalverhouder)

20 Dutch Milk Powder Prices YEAR HIGH LOW /100kg 135/100kg /100kg 131/100kg (source: De Kalverhouder)

21 Dutch Whey Powder Prices YEAR HIGH LOW /100kg 57/100kg /100kg 49/100kg (source: De Kalverhouder)

22 The Netherlands 2017 Strong increase in calf purchase prices: average of 165/head vs 136/hd (2016). Veal prices have recovered strongly since autumn. Over the same period, milk powder and whey prices have fallen steadily. Dutch dairy herd had to reduce by 200,000 cows, as a result of environmental regulations. Advertising in De Kalverhouder & other producer publications

23 Italy AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

24 Italian Live Cattle Imports in 2017 million head % , (E)

25 Irish Live Cattle Exports to Italy ( ) 60,000 53,677 50,000 40,000 30,000 37,855 26,048 29,999 24,886 20,000 18,558 19,441 10,

26 Italian Live Cattle Imports by Country (Jan-Nov) 800,000 +5% 600, , , % -38% +5% -14% +21% -48% France Austria Poland Ireland Germany Romania Czech Rep. -22% Other

27 Italian Live Cattle Imports - % Market Share % 4.59% 1.31% 1.84% 2.14% 1.67% 0.32% 5.52% France Austria Poland Ireland Germany Romania Czech Rep.

28 800,000 Increase in Italian Cattle Slaughtering in , , % % % 2016 Jan - Aug 2017 Jan - Aug 200,000 0 Young bulls Heifers Cows Source ISMEA

29 Italian Market Summary Marginal increase in cattle imports of about 0.3% Cattle imports from Ireland up 5% French weanlings continue to dominate, with >82% of imports Increase in Italian beef production (~5%), while consumption is showing signs of signs of recovery. Strong increase in finished cattle prices in late 17. (U grade 4.42/kg in Dec. 17 vs in 16.) Italian livestock market outlook most positive in years

30 Spain AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

31 Spanish Market Performance 2017 Spanish beef production very similar to Spanish retail data shows beef sales falling (-4%) Cattle imports increased by nearly 10% and exports by 59% Beef exports increased by 4.7% to 87,000t (Jan-Jun) Calves <80kg imports are becoming even more relevant >70% of imports Irish exports to Spain up to November increased by 36%, reaching a figure of 50,451 heads.

32 3,000,000 Slaughterings (hds) & Production (tn) 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,506,734 2,013,745 2,314,752 2,222,003 2,333,895 2,373,850 2,378, % 1,500,000 National Kill (Heads) 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , , ,900 National Kill (tn) +0.6%

33 Imports by Origin

34 Spanish Exports to 3 rd Countries Jan-August (hds)

35 Crossed Male R-3 <331kg Carcass Weight Price Evolution ( /kg carcass)

36 2018 Outlook Outlook for the Spanish finishing sector is positive. Continued strong demand for calves Spain is increasinly positioning itself as a serious supplier of livestock into 3rd countries

37 Live Bovine Imports in MENA 2017

38 Live bovine imports Live bovine imports in North Africa in million USD $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $142 $141 $91 $96 $87 $58 $ ALGERIA EGYPT LIBYA MOROCCO $33

39 Morocco livestock business Live bovine imports in Morocco by country in % 5% 2% 3% 44% 46% France Germany Spain Netherlands Others Source: Moroccan customs

40 Algeria livestock business Live bovine imports in Algeria by country in % 6% 5% 2% 2% France Germany Austria Spain Netherlands 85% Source: Algerian customs

41 Libya livestock business Live bovine imports in Libya by country in % 11% 3% 2% 13% 71% Spain Romania France Ireland Croatia Source: Libyan customs

42 Egypt livestock business Live bovine imports in Egypt by country in % 8% 5% 7% 19% Spain Brazil Sudan Hungary 14% 19% Ukraine Germany Uruguay 13% Others 17% Source: Egyptian customs

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44 Summary AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

45 Summary Live exports recovered by 30% in Exports increased to most markets. Dutch veal market looking more positive: fewer domestic supplies; milk powder, calf and veal prices French weanlings highly dominant in Italy. Spain remains a key market for quality calves. EU beef demand, and prices, increasing. Continued focus on international markets

46 Bord Bia DAFM Live Exporters Meeting Joe Burke January 2018 AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009