Comments about the Beef & Sheep meat forecast
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1 Comments about the Beef & Sheep meat forecast AGMEMOD Workshop 26th February 2015 Philippe Chotteau Head Economics Dpt 1
2 Institut de l Elevage: a specialized R&D organization GENETICS HUSBANDRY & ENVIRONMENT FARM & PRODUCT QUALITY ECONOMICS FARMERS & SOCIETY LIVESTOCK INFORMATION SYSTEMS FARMING SYSTEMS & NETWORKS 2 2
3 Economics Dpt Markets analysis: 2 monthly publications 5
4 Markets analysis: 1 quaterly publication About animal production & Feed in China (collaboration with Ifip & Itavi = ABCIS) 6
5 Farm economics: Analysis of costs of production (based on farm networks) Revenue analysis & forecast International benchmarking: FADN, Agribenchmark, IFCN 7
6 Feedback on projections Focus on BEEF & SHEEPMEAT. -A regret: given to the form of the slideshow, country data are not easily readible. So comments are not easy to do either -So I shall be rather general myself: --- About the herds evolutions (Beef & Sheepmeat markets appears to be still «offer driven») --- About the impact of competition between different productions for factor allocation (mainly dairy or crops/meat ruminant productions) --- About the necessity to distinguish different markets either on the domestic & international markets 8
7 Feedback on projections Complexity of BEEF market: 1/ Herd forecast -As 2 EU cows about 3 are dairy, the first driver remains the dairy market (debate about yield/number of cows appears to be fundamental for a given production forecast). -For the suckler cow herd, the recoupled payment will play an important role, as, at a lower level, the greening obligation to maintain permanent grassland. 9
8 Most of the EU suckler herd get coupled payments But reference 3,8 M head 11
9 Erosion of the suckler herd since 2009 Suckler cows: -0,5 M head since
10 Necessity to have a deep analysis on production systems /country. Ex of France: Dairy farms produce 53% of beef: either from the dairy herd, or because combined production. Only 60% of dairy farms are specialized Impact of the end of the dairy quota on beef production 13
11 2020 French Beef production forecast Dairy cows Suckler cows + sex ratio evolution Store exports 14
12 2005 Study (EAAP based on FADN analysis) EU-15 Diversity of beef farming systems Share of different farming systems in farms and beef production Farms Beef production (in value) Small farms 1% Small farms 10% Pure CC 19% Pure dairy 24% Pure CC 24% Pure dairy 38% Dairy+beef 13% CC+fin 7% CC+sheep 5% Spec. Fin. 1% Small fin. 6% Fin.+ sheep 1% Dairy+beef 20% Fin.+ sheep 1% CC+fin 11% CC+sheep 6% Spec. Fin. Small fin. 6% 7% Source: GEB-Institut de l Elevage according to EU-FADN
13 Feedback on projections Key beef price in the EU is not the German one: - Italian for young bull beef + Impact of exchange rate even inside the EU market (UK, Poland ) U Young Bull R Young Bull 16
14 Feedback on projections Key beef price in the EU is not the German one: - French for cow beef + Impact of exchange rate even inside the EU market (UK, Poland ) 17
15 International beef prices 18
16 Feedback on projections Same pb with lamb market: Only 60% of EU ewes are suckler ewes, the other 40% are dairy, producing also light lambs (<13 kg cw), usually more expensive than heavy ones. But economic crisis effects on cheese + light lamb consumption in Greece, Romania, Italy, Spain On the other hand, despite historically high prices, sheepmeat production is decreasing nearly all over the World: pb of relative poor profitability + high labour demanding. Surprise about much higher Dutch sheepmeat forecast production 20
17 Feedback on projections Some ideas/proposals: Would it be possible to feed market model with systems analysis approach at each country level? We are working on demographic models for herd and production forecast at short + medium term (mixed with system analysis + market indicators). Which kind of cooperation? 21
18 Thanks for your attention! 22
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