World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing June 11, 2014

Transcription

1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing

2 World Wheat Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India

3 Wheat is grown across much of Europe, with the big hitters being France, U.K., Germany, and Poland. The EU collectively is the globe s largest wheat producer.

4 Rapeseed is also grown across much of central and northern Europe, and has expanded into the Balkans. The EU is the largest rapeseed producer globally.

5 Germany Daily Temperature Departure ( C) The unseasonable warmth prevailed across most of the continent, including Germany (shown here) as well as Poland and the U.K.

6 In Germany, a crop that normally flowers in June was flowering in mid-. ~ Flower Date Normal ~Flower Date

7 Ireland U.K. Neth. Poland Bel. Germany Czech Slovakia France Switz Austria Hungary Romania Italy Serbia Port. Spain Bulgaria Virtually every major wheat and rapeseed area received near- to abovenormal rainfall during. Greece

8 Ireland U.K. Neth. Poland Bel. Germany Czech Slovakia France Switz Austria Hungary Romania Italy Serbia Port. Spain Bulgaria Greece Currently, the VHI has improved markedly in most major wheat and rapeseed areas. Exceptions are Spain (early end to water year), Italy (planting intentions) and Serbia (flooding).

9 Change in Wheat Production In thousand tons Data Source: USDA Total EU production change +1.4 million tons

10 Rapeseed changes (1,000 tons) Europe: June 2014 Rapeseed Production Changes

11 World Wheat Supply and Use 2014/15 Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

12 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,130 1, Imports Total supply 3,018 2, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,244 1, Exports 1, Total use 2,424 2, Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

13 World Rice Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

14 World Rice Supply and Use 2014/15 Million Tons, milled Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks

15 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) 7,694 7, Million cwt Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Dollars per cwt Average market price 15.70/ /

16 World Corn Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union FSU Ukraine Russia South Africa China India

17 Ukraine: Estimated Corn Area and Abandonment 6,000 14% 12% 5,000 10% KHa 8% 3,000 6% abandoned 4,000 2,000 4% 1,000 2% Area harvested Source: State Statistical Committee Abandoned area % abandoned

18 Ukraine Corn Planting Progress MinAg reports sown area at 4.78 mha, virtually matching last year s level. Final sown area for 2013 was reported by SSC at 4.89 mha. Million hectares Apr Source: Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food June

19 Ukraine: Winter Wheat Yield on Agricultural Enterprises and of Total Output 30% % % % % 10% 20% % Yield (T/Ha) of wheat output on ag enterprises Wheat production is dominated by mid-sized agricultural enterprises % 5% 4% 6% 3% 0.5 5% 0% Below to to to to 1,001 to 1,000 2,000 Size of enterprise (Hectares) Pct of total output Source: State Statistical Committee 2,001 to 3,000 Over 3,000 Yield

20 Ukraine: Corn Yield on Agricultural Enterprises and of Total Output 7.0 Corn production is dominated by larger agricultural enterprises % % % 10% 16% 18% Yield (T/Ha) of total corn output on ag enterprises 25% 17% % 5% 9% 3% 1.0 4% 0% Below to to to to 1,001 to 1,000 2,000 Size of enterprise (Hectares) Pct of total output Source: State Statistical Committee 2,001 to 3,000 Over 3,000 Yield

21 Ukraine: Seed-Corn Imports and Total Corn Yield 60 Yield dipped in both 2010 and 2012 due to excessively high mid-summer temperatures as the corn crop was advancing through the heat-sensitive reproductive stage Yield (Tons per hectare) Seed imports (1,000 tons) Through March Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield) After March Yield

22 Russia Corn: Planting-Seed Imports 45,000 40, Hybrid seed imports through April have surpassed last year s level by 42 percent ,000 30,000 25, , Yield (T/Ha) Seed imports (tons) , , , Through April Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield) Yield (H)

23 World Corn Supply and Use 2014/15 Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply 1,12 1, Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

24

25 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Feed and residual Food, seed, and industrial Ethanol Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price Million bushels 821 1,146 13,925 13, ,781 15,111 5,300 5,250 6,435 6,435 5,050 5,050 11,735 11,685 1,900 1,700 13,635 13,385 1,146 1, Dollars per bushel 4.45/ /

26 World Soybean Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China

27

28 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Crush Seed and residual Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price 2014/ Million bushels ,289 3, ,519 3,775 1,700 1, ,795 1,825 1,600 1,625 3,395 3, Dollars per bushel /

29 World Cotton Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Bales World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Syria Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone

30 World Cotton Supply and Use 2014/15 Million Bales Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Consumption Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks

31 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Stocks/use Average market price 2014/ Million bales Cents per pound /

32 Texas Cotton Abandonment Source: USDA

33 Lubbock, Texas, Cumulative Rainfall (Inches) January Drought 2012 Drought 2011 Drought

34 Contiguous U.S. 48% D0 D4 37% D1 D4

35 Southwest Cotton Abandonment Based on Texas Drought Conditions Texas Drought Conditions Near June 1st y = e277x R² = y = x R² = Abandonment % % Severe + Drought

36 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand 2014/15 Thousand MT Beginning stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Total Use Ending stocks 1,460 6, ,786 4,690 2,278 6, , ,544 4,690 1,907 6,

37 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 2014/15 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks Production Beets Cane Imports TRQ Re-export Mexico High-tier Total Supply Exports Domestic deliveries Total use Ending stocks 2,158 8,490 4,800 3,690 3,585 1, , , ,051 12,376 1,857 1,857 8,355 4,750 3,605 3,783 1, , , ,835 12,085 1, Stocks/use ratio

38 U.S. Meat Production and Prices Production Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Steers Hogs Broilers Turkey Billion pounds Dollars/cwt Cents/lb

39 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand Dollars/cwt Average market price 1/ Class III Class IV All milk / Prices are mid-point of published s; milk of average fat test Production Imports Commercial use Exports Billion pounds

40 U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Class III Class IV All milk Dollars/pound Dollars/cwt

41 U.S. Production Summary Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 2014/15 2, , ,289 19,920 40, ,490 1, , ,635 19,810 40, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat

42 Domestic Demand Summary Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 2014/15 1, , ,795 18,450 29, ,051 1, , ,825 18,100 29, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat

43 U.S. Export Summary 2014/15 Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) 1, , ,600 1,750 11, , ,625 1,700 11, Meat (Million lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 2,508 4,860 7, ,504 2,425 5,035 7, ,

44 Price Summary Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt) 2014/