2010 Cost of Potato Production Comparisons for Idaho Commercial Potato Production

Transcription

1 2010 Cost of Potato Production Comparisons for Idaho Commercial Potato Production Prepared by University of Idaho Extension Agricultural Economist Paul E. Patterson Agricultural Economics Extension Series No November 18, 2010 Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Moscow, Idaho

2 2010 Cost of Potato Production Comparisons for Idaho Commercial Potato Production Conducted by: University of Idaho College of Agricultural and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics & Rural Sociology Paul E. Patterson Extension Agricultural Economist Revised Report Submitted to: The Idaho Potato Commission R & E Committee, Potato Processors, and Grower Organizations November 18, 2010 This project is funded in part by the Idaho Potato Commission, IPC Project No. 8742, UI Project No. BDK902, Cost of Potato Production. Copies of the report and earlier reports can be found at: Click Resources then Project Reports

3 ii Table of Contents Table of Contents Page ii Idaho Potato Production Costs Project: Goal and Objectives Page 1 Cost of Production Background Page Crop Input Costs Page 2 Potato Cost of Production Overview Page 3-6 Farm Size and Potato Acreage Input Costs Potato Yields Fumigation Yield and Cost Dilemma Page 6-7 Unresolved Yield Issue Page Cost of Potato Production Overview and Comparison Page 8-10 Cost Summaries Cost Comparisons Adjustments Tables: Page Table 1.Listing of 2010 Idaho potato costs and returns estimates by region Page 11 Table 2. Current & historical farm size and potato acreage assumptions by region Page 11 Table 3.Current and historical interest rates, labor charges and power rates used Page 12 in costs and returns estimates Table 4. Current and historical fuel, water assessments and fertilizer component prices 4-a Southwestern Idaho Page 12 4-b Southcentral Idaho Page 13 4-c Eastern Idaho Page 13 Table 5. Potato yields by region for published and unpublished University of Idaho Page 14 costs and returns estimates, both with and without fumigation Table 6. Historical potato yields published by IASS for and historical Page 14 3-year averages. Table 7. Historical potato yields reported by IASS for primary commercial Page 15 potato counties of eastern Idaho and historical 3-year averages. Table 8. Fumigation yield adjustment and percentage fumigation factors by region Page 15 Table 9. Cost changes per acre by region from 2009 to Page 16

4 iii Table of Contents (Cont.) Table 10. Cost changes per hundredweight by region from 2009 to Page 17 Table 11. Per acre and percentage change in costs from 2009 to 2010 for Page 18 Irrigated Russet Burbank potatoes: no storage costs Table 12. Per acre and percentage change in costs from 2009 to 2010 for Page 19 Irrigated Russet Burbank potatoes: with storage costs and no fumigation Table 13. Per acre and percentage change in costs from 2009 to 2010 for Page 20 Irrigated Russet Burbank potatoes: with storage costs and no fumigation Appendix Page 21 Table Southwestern Idaho commercial Russet Burbank: Page fumigation and no storage potato costs and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Southwestern Idaho commercial Russet Burbank: Page fumigation and storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Southcentral Idaho commercial Russet Burbank: Page no storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Southcentral Idaho commercial Russet Burbank: Page storage potato cost and returns and comparison with 2009 Table Southcentral Idaho commercial Russet Burbank: Page fumigation and storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Eastern Idaho- South commercial Russet Burbank: Page no storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Eastern Idaho- South commercial Russet Burbank: Page storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Eastern Idaho- South commercial Russet Burbank: Page fumigation and storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Eastern Idaho- North commercial Russet Burbank: Page storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009 Table Eastern Idaho- North Russet Burbank G3 seed: Page storage potato cost and returns with comparison to 2009

5 Costs of Potato Production in Idaho 1 The overall goal of this project is to provide the Idaho potato industry with an unbiased and consistently calculated estimate of the cost of producing potatoes in three regions of Idaho and to track the change in production costs per acre and per hundredweight over time. The following objectives are designed to meet the project goal: 1. To collect data from input suppliers, machinery and equipment dealers, and growers as appropriate. 2. To revise and update existing potato costs and returns estimates to reflect current input costs and production practices. 3. To develop cost of production estimates for new varieties or new or proposed production systems as needed or as requested. 4. To calculated changes in production costs per acre and per hundredweight and include both the detailed and summary cost changes in an annual report. 5. To make the annual report available to the Idaho potato industry and to present the information as requested. 6. To maintain a Cost of Production Advisory Committee representing the different segments of the Idaho potato industry and to meet with this group to review the CAR estimates and to obtain input on proposed revisions. I would like to acknowledge the cooperation and support that I receive from all segments of the Idaho potato industry, including growers, processors, and input suppliers. I would also like to thank the Idaho Potato Commission for the funding I receive to support this project, IPC Project Number 8742, UI Project number BDK902. Cost of Production Background The University of Idaho Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology (AERS) develops and publishes crop costs and returns (CAR) estimates also referred to as enterprise budgets or cost of production estimates -- for many of the major crops grown in Idaho. CAR estimates are revised and published every other year in odd-numbered years, typically in the early winter. Crop CAR estimates have historically been developed for four geographic regions of the state: southwestern Idaho, southcentral Idaho, eastern Idaho, and northern Idaho. Enterprise budgets are tied to region-specific production management systems that reflect climate and soil conditions as well as current cultural practices. Production practices depicted in the University of Idaho CAR estimates are typical or representative for that crop and region. recognizing that there is a wide range in production practices pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

6 among growers, or even between fields on the same farm. Primarily because of data collection limitations relating to sample size, these costs of production estimates do not represent a regional average. 2 Information used in developing production practices modeled in the CAR estimates comes from a variety of sources, including: surveys of individual growers, information from grower panels, industry fieldmen, as well as University of Idaho county Extension educators and production specialists. Both crop and livestock CAR estimates are available from the Internet at the following URL: Click on Resources and then either Crops or Livestock. The crop CAR estimates are organized by year and by region. Copies of this report and earlier reports on changes in potato production costs in Idaho can be found at the same web address. Click on Resources and then Project Reports Crop Input Costs The cost information used to value inputs in the 2010 potato CAR estimates came from the survey of input suppliers conducted annually by the University of Idaho. This information is published in the Agricultural Economics Extension Series. The Idaho Crop Input Price Summary for 2010 is available at Surveys were conducted between February and September and included irrigation districts and canal companies, agricultural lenders, crop insurance companies, trucking companies, aerial and other custom applicators, fuel suppliers, and chemical and fertilizer dealers. Information on seed potato prices and the cost to cut and treat potato seed was taken from a survey of Idaho seed potato growers and commercial growers. A charge for handling and transportation is added then added to the FOB seed farm-based seed potato prices to derive a seed potato cost for each region. Machinery and equipment prices were obtained from a survey of dealers conducted between August 2004 and May of These prices are adjusted using the annual change in USDA s Prices Paid Machinery Index. Irrigation equipment prices and costs were based on Extension Bulletin 788, Economics of Sprinkler Irrigation Systems: handline, solid set & wheelline, and Extension Bulletin 787, Economics of Low-Pressure Sprinkler Irrigation Systems: center pivot and linear move. Irrigation system costs were also adjusted using the USDA Prices Paid Machinery Index. Machinery prices have increased approximately two percent over the past year from 2008 to Potato Cost of Production Overview pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

7 3 Cost of production estimates are influenced by the assumptions made in depicting a representative or typical farm. The size of the farm and the acreage planted to different crops will influence costs, particularly machinery ownership costs. It is important to recognize this when making comparisons between regions where assumptions differ or within a region over time as the underlying assumptions change. The University of Idaho currently has ten potato CAR estimates. Nine CAR estimates are for commercial potato production and one is for seed production. A list of CAR estimates by region and variety is found in Table 1. Table 1 also indicates whether the CAR estimates include storage or fumigation costs. Farm Size and Potato Acreage Table 2 shows the farm size and potato acreage for each region s model farm for the five most recent years when cost of production estimates were made. For 2010 the model farm in southwestern Idaho is 1,200 acres with 300 acres in potatoes, while the model farms for southcentral and eastern Idaho are 1,800 acres with 450 acres and 600 acres in potatoes, respectively. In general, operating costs are not influenced by farm size. However, ownership costs do change with farm size, primarily because of economies of size and scale with equipment. Equipment ownership costs per acre are strongly influenced by the number of acres over which these costs are spread. The more acres, the lower the cost. In setting the farm size and selecting the machinery compliment, we attempt to achieve an economically efficient combination. Equipment that is under utilized has high ownership costs, while equipment with too many hours of use results in unrealistically low ownership costs. Input Costs Some input prices are region specific, while other input prices are standardized for the entire state since they don t vary consistently by region. Table 3 contains information on three such items: interest rates, labor costs and Idaho Power s irrigation power charges. Table 3 has values for 2010, the previous 3 years and the percentage change from 2009 to Interest is charged from the time an expenditure is made until the harvest month using the operating interest rate shown in Table 3. Operating interest is identified as a separate line item in the CAR estimates. The intermediate interest rate is used in calculating non-cash machinery costs. The labor used in crop production falls in one of three classes shown in Table 3. The labor used to operate machinery; tractor operators and truck drivers for example, receive a higher wage than unskilled (other) labor used during harvest to pick clods and rocks on a harvester and to help with storage and trans-loading operations. The labor costs include the base wage rate plus payroll taxes and benefit costs. These are shown as a percentage. Additional labor information is included in the background and assumptions page that accompanies each CAR estimate. While Idaho Power s service area does not extend to all irrigated areas of southern Idaho, it is by far the largest supplier of power to Idaho farms and ranches and that is why it is used in the CAR estimates. The power rates shown in Table pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

8 4 3 are used with a center pivot irrigation system to derive the cost per acre-inch of water applied. The power demand used in the calculation is for pressurization only. The standard assumption for each region is that surface water is delivered to the farm from a canal. Cost per acre-inch of water applied by different irrigation systems and with different pumping lifts are found in Table 10 of the Crop Input Cost Summary for 2010 referenced earlier. Tables 4-a, 4-b and 4-c contain cost information on commonly used inputs where prices generally vary by region. These include fuel, water assessment, and fertilizer. Table 4-a shows these costs for southwestern Idaho, Table 4-b shows the costs for southcentral Idaho and Table 4-c shows the costs for eastern Idaho. Prior to 2008, fuel prices were determined at a single point in time, typically August. Fuel prices since 2008 found in the Crop Input Cost Summary and used in CAR estimates are the simple average of prices collected at four times during the year: February, April, June and August. This change was made at the request of the cost of production advisory committee. Potato Yields The yield in a CAR estimate is used to calculate gross revenue and break-even prices needed to cover costs in different categories. Yield is also the basis for certain costs, such as promotion or inspection fees paid by growers. Yield also drives storage and transloading costs which are calculated on a hundredweight basis. Table 5 shows the potato yields used in the University of Idaho s 2010 commercial potato CAR estimates, as well as the previous four updates. Some values are shown only as a reference and indicate the value we would use if we published a CAR estimate for that area and with those production practices. Only those shown in bold type are used in CAR estimates. Prior to 1991 there was not a consistent method used to determine potato yields in CAR estimates for all three regions. Starting in 1991, yields in all three regions were based Idaho Agricultural Statistics Service county or regional-level yield data. From 1991 to 1995, the yield was calculated using a 5-year rolling average. From 1995 through 2003 the yields used were based on a projected yield using exponential smoothing with an alpha value of.20. This procedure eliminated the negative bias that resulted from using historical data to calculate averages when yields were increasing rapidly. Unfortunately, exponential smoothing also produced projected yields that varied widely from actual yield when potato yield variation from one year to the next was substantial. To avoid this problem, the yield calculation for CAR estimates was switched to a projected 3-year average starting in For 2006, the 3-year average consisted of two years of historical data and the third year was projected, based on the November USDA crop production report. Starting in pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

9 5 2007, the 3-year average was switched to the three most recent years of historical data. For the 2010 CAR estimates, yield data for 2007, 2008 and 2009 was used. The 2010 county-level data for Idaho will not be published until October 2011, so the yields used in calculating the average will always be lagged by one year. Yields used in the CAR estimates are rounded to the nearest 5 hundredweight. These base area yields are then adjusted to account for fumigation, a procedure described later. For crop reporting purposes, the IASS breaks Idaho into regions. The IASS calculates potato yields both for individual counties within a region and for the region itself. The yield estimates used in southwestern and southcentral Idaho CAR estimates are based on the IASS regions and includes all the counties in that region. Prior to 2001, yields in eastern Idaho CAR estimates were based on four major commercial potato counties: Bannock, Bingham, Bonneville and Power. Starting in 2001, separate CAR estimates were made for commercial potato production in the southern counties, Bannock, Bingham and Power, and the northern counties: Bonneville, Jefferson and Madison. (See Table 1.) Because of changes in how yields were calculated and other procedural changes, it can be difficult to make historical comparisons going back more than one year. When procedural changes occur in cost calculations, the previous year s CAR estimate is re-calculated using the new procedure so that the yearto-year change is based on the price and quantity change of inputs, not based on procedural changes. Because of this, the resulting costs for the previous year will be different than those published the previous year. The potato yields used in the 2010 CAR estimates are higher than those used in (See Table 5.) The yield was 5 hundredweight per acre higher in western Idaho and in southcentral Idaho, and 15 hundredweight per acre higher in eastern Idaho. The following section explains how the yield values used in the fumigation and non-fumigation CAR estimates are derived. Fumigation Yield and Cost Allocation Dilemma Fumigation has a significant impact on per acre production costs and can also have a large impact on potato yield and quality. For an individual grower, this is does not pose a problem because the cost and yield increases correspond. In budgeting procedures used to generate potato CAR estimates, the cost pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

10 6 increase is not a problem when fumigation is included. There are, however, two yield questions that must be considered. The first question: how much of a yield increase should be attributed to fumigation? The second question: what should the base yield in the non-fumigation CAR estimate be? Since the county and regional yields published by IASS contain both fumigated and non-fumigated potato acreage, IASS values are not appropriate for either a CAR estimate with fumigation or one without fumigation unless some attempt is made to identify and separate the fumigation yield impact in the IASS data. Historic yields based on IASS data are too low if used in a CAR estimate with the full cost of fumigation included. Historic yields are too high if used in a CAR estimate when no fumigation cost is included. Including only a partial cost for fumigation would be appropriate in calculating average production costs, but not for calculating typical costs where fumigation is either used or it is not. In addition, the methods used by the University of Idaho to obtain farmer production practice data is not consistent with calculating average production costs for a region. Using the IASS yield data and including a partial fumigation cost in a typical budget is not appropriate as it gives the appearance that fumigation is less expensive then it actually is. The IASS county-level or regional yield data are used to calculate an area 3-year average yield. These procedures were discussed in the previous section. This base area yield value is set equal to the weighted average of the fumigated yield and the non-fumigated yield as shown in the following formula. The weights are estimated percentages of potato acres in that region that are fumigated and not fumigate, respectively. The yield adjustment attributable to fumigation as well as the percentage of acres fumigated in each region is shown in Table 8. Fumigation Yield Adjustment Factor (% of acres not fumigated x Y) + (% acres fumigated x FY) = Area Average Yield, Where Y = non-fumigation yield, FY = fumigation yield, and FY = Y + fumigation yield adjustment The following example illustrates how the fumigation adjustment factor was used, given an area yield of 400 cwt, with 60 percent of the potato acreage fumigated and a fumigation yield adjustment of 50 hundredweight per acre. Set up the equation as shown below and solve for Y. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

11 7.4Y +.6 (Y+50) = 400.4Y +.6Y + 30 = Y + 30 = 400 Y = 370 And FY = 420 Check:.4 x x 420 = 400 Fumigation yield in this example is 420 and non-fumigation yield is 370, while the area average is 400. The fumigation CAR estimate would include the full cost of fumigation and the non-fumigation would have no fumigation costs. Thus, the costs and yields would correspond. Note: There are limitations to this type of adjustment and there is a lack of publicly available data on which to base fumigation estimates. While not perfect, using this methodology does reduce the previous negative bias that occurred when calculating costs per hundredweight when the benefit of fumigation on yield was included in the region or county yields, but the cost of fumigation was not. Comments from the potato industry on how to improve this procedure are encouraged, particularly on how to improve the values shown in Table 8. Using the percentages of acres fumigated from Table 8 and the number of potato acres grown in each region produces a statewide weighted-average of approximately 45 to 50 percent of the potato acreage being fumigated. This falls within the ranges of values of percent given by knowledgeable people in the industry. Unresolved Yield Issue Regardless of how the area potato yields are calculated, how does this yield compare to the grower s paid yield? The answer will vary depending on whether the potatoes are sold in the fresh or in the process market. The yield data from IASS includes all tubers greater than 1-1/2 inches. Since the University of Idaho CAR estimates do not segment the yield into size and grade components that would sell for different prices, the breakeven prices shown in the CAR estimates are what the grower would have to average in order to cover costs. The implicit assumption is that the yields shown in the CAR estimates are a paid yield. But with unusable averaging around 8 percent for processing potatoes, the yield shown in the UI CAR estimates is greater than what growers would be paid on. This issue may not be resolved in the CAR estimates, but it certainly needs to be addressed if the potato industry uses the values from these CAR estimates to justify contract base prices and incentives. The underlying issue is whether per the per acre cost and the changes in per acres costs from year-to-year is a better measure to use than cost per hundredweight and the change in per hundredweight costs from year-to-year. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

12 Cost of Potato Production Overview and Comparison Direct comparisons with previously published estimates should not be made without accounting for differences in procedures and assumptions. Procedural adjustments were made in several calculations between 2008 and These are discussed later. Note that beginning with the 2003 CAR estimates, the non-storage CAR estimates model a situation where potatoes are trans-loaded to a semi-trailer, rather than being hauled directly to the plant or processor storage in field trucks, which was the assumption prior to The semitrailer is hired, not owned, so it shows up as a custom hauling expense. The labor costs for the crew at the transloading point must also be accounted for. The assumption is that the transloading crew is the same as the cellar crew used when potatoes are placed in storage. The transloading labor is included in the trans-loading operating expense, not as a labor charge per se. There is also an ownership cost in the non-storage CAR estimates to account for depreciation, interest and insurance on the trans-loading equipment. The trans-loading equipment includes most but not all the equipment that is used in the storage CAR estimates and includes: conveyers, even-flow bin, eliminator/sizer, and piler. Information regarding the specific farm situation for each CAR estimate, i.e. farm size, tillage, cultivation, fertilization practices, irrigation method, etc., is discussed on the background and assumptions page that is included with published CAR estimates, but not included in this report. Cost Summaries Table 9 summarizes the dollar values per acre for operating, ownership and total costs for 2009 and 2010, as well as the change per acre from 2009 to 2010 measured both in dollars and as a percentage. Table 9 includes eight of the commercial potato budgets published by the University of Idaho. The CAR estimates in Table 9 are grouped by region. The changes in operating costs per acre were all negative, ranging from a minus $145 to a minus $205. Ownership costs increased for potato CAR estimates, ranging from $11 to $26 per acre. Total costs per acre decreased slightly for all the CAR estimates, ranging from minus $133 to minus $183. On a percentage basis, operating costs changes ranged from minus 6.7% to minus 10.2%. Percentage ownership costs per acre increases ranged from 1.0 to 2.3%, while total costs percentage decreases ranged from 3.9% to 5.9%. Table 10 is organized the same as Table 9, but shows the dollar and percentage cost change per hundredweight. When yield from one year to the next remains the same, the percentage change per acre pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

13 9 and per hundredweight are the same. But with yields used in the CAR estimates up in all regions of Idaho, percentage increases per hundredweight were smaller (or negative) and negative values were greater in comparison to percentage changes in costs per acre. The change in operating costs per hundredweight ranged from minus $0.34 to minus $0.66. The change in ownership costs per hundredweight ranged from plus $0.03 to a minus $0.08. Change in total costs per hundredweight ranged from minus $0.33 to minus $0.74. On a percentage basis, the operating costs per hundredweight decreases ranged from minus 7.6% to minus 13.2%. Percentage change in ownership costs per hundredweight ranged from an increase of 1.1% to a decrease of 2.8%, while total costs changes ranged from minus4.8% to plus 9.5%. Tables 11, 12 and 13 show the dollar and percentage changes per acre by major cost category for the nonstorage, storage and storage with fumigation CAR estimates, respectively. This allows for a side-by-side comparison across regions of potato CAR estimates in the same production category. Making cost comparisons between regions may not always be appropriate, however, because of difference in the assumed management practices and farm sizes. Management practices for southcentral and southeastern Idaho are fairly similar, making direct comparisons more meaningful. The detailed CAR estimates for each production system and region are shown in the appendix, starting on page 21. Cost Comparisons CAR estimates ranged from just under $2,300 per acre in eastern Idaho without storage or fumigation up to just under $3,900 in southwestern Idaho with 4-1/2 months of storage costs and fumigation. The range in values per hundredweight is not so extreme. Without storage costs, cost per hundredweight ranged from $$6.29 in eastern Idaho up to $6.50 in southwestern Idaho In storage CAR estimates, costs per hundredweight ranged from a low of $6.96 in eastern Idaho with fumigation up to $7.21 in southwestern Idaho where fumigation is the standard. Lower seed and fertilizer prices provided the biggest cost savings. The aggregate cost of chemicals and pesticides was down in all CAR estimates except in southwestern Idaho where a significant cost in the fumigant K-Pam more than offset cost savings in other products. Higher fuel costs and a small increase in machinery prices pushed up machinery costs across the board. Labor costs were also up very slightly as well. Depreciation and interest on equipment was higher because of the higher value of the equipment, while land values were flat. Because operating costs declined, overhead declined as well since it is calculated as a percentage of the overall operating expenses. The management fee was also up because the gross receipts on which it is based increased because of higher yields, and higher prices in the CAR estimates with storage. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

14 10 Adjustments for 2010 The cost of irrigation system repairs used in the 2010 CAR estimates in less than that used in The coefficient used to calculate repair costs as a function of the value of the irrigation system was lowered in comparison to what was used in the past. This reflects greater reliability than existed twenty years ago when these values were last computed. The new coefficients were used to recalculate irrigation system repair costs for This is why it appears in a green font in the detailed CAR estimates found in the Appendix. The quantities of fertilizer used in the southwestern Idaho 2009 CAR estimate were increased compared to what was published last year. This recognizes the substantial increase in the yield in the 2009 CAR estimate, but with no corresponding increase in fertilizer. Additional increases in fertilizer quantities were made in the 2010 CAR estimates for all regions in keeping with the yield increases. Another change made in all the potato budgets was splitting out the cost of cutting seed and treating seed. In previous years this has always been treated as a single cost item, the cost to cut and treat seed.. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

15 Table 1.Idaho potato costs and returns estimates by region for Region/Publication No. Variety Storage Fumigation Commercial Potatoes 11 Southwestern: EBB2-Po1-10 Russet Burbank No Yes EBB2-Po3-10 Russet Burbank Yes Yes Southcentral: EBB3-Po1-10 Russet Burbank No No EBB3-Po2-10 Russet Burbank Yes No EBB3-Po3-10 Russet Burbank Yes Yes Eastern South Counties: EBB4-Po1-10 Russet Burbank No No EBB4-Po5-10 Russet Burbank Yes No EBB4-Po6-10 Russet Burbank Yes Yes Eastern North Counties: EBB4-Po2-10 Russet Burbank Yes No Seed Eastern Seed Counties EBB4-Po4-10 G3 Russet Burbank Yes No Table 2. Model farm size and potato acreage assumptions by region: Farm Potato Farm Farm Farm Potato Farm Potato Farm Potato Southwestern Southcentral Eastern pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

16 Table 3. Interest rates, labor charges and power rates used in CAR estimates: and percentage change from 2009 to Change Operating Interest Rate 9.50% 7.0% 6.75% 7.0% +3.7% Intermediate Interest Rate 8.75% 7.5% 7.0% 7.5% +7.1% Labor Class (overhead) Machinery Labor (30%) $14.10 $14.95 $15.60 $ % Irrigation Labor (25%) $9.45 $10.20 $11.05 $ % Other Labor (15%) $8.35 $8.70 $9.20 $ % Power Rate: Idaho Power Irrigation Service Schedule 24 Monthly Service Charge $14.25 $15.00 $15.75 $ % Demand Charge: irrigation season $4.36 $4.67 $4.90 $ % Base Rate: per kwh % Power Cost Adjustment per kwh % Effective Rate: per kwh % Pumping Cost per Acre Inch $1.26 $1.48 $1.72 $ % Pumping cost is calculated using Idaho Power Company rates for a 160-acre center pivot with a corner system: 69% pumping plant efficiency and with zero lift. Pumping costs per acre-inch at different lifts (0-, 100-, 200- and 300-feet) and different irrigation systems (center pivots without corner systems and wheellines) can be found in the Idaho Crop Input Cost Summary for Table 4-a. Current and historical fuel, water assessment and fertilizer component prices for southwestern Idaho: and percentage change from 2009 to Change Gasoline $3.00 $3.65 $2.30 $ % Off-Road Diesel $2.65 $3.80 $2.00 $ % Road Diesel $3.10 $4.30 $2.50 $ % Water Assessment $37.40 $40.60 $43.25 $ % Dry Nitrogen (46-0-0) $0.50 $0.82 $0.50 $ % Liquid Nitrogen (32-0-0) $0.60 $0.84 $0.56 $ % P 2 O 5 Dry ( )* $0.38 $0.83 $0.46 $ % P 2 O 5 Liquid ( )* $0.37 $1.04 $0.63 $ % K 2 O (0-0-60) $0.25 $0.57 $0.69 $ % Sulfur $0.18 $0.43 $0.19 $ % *Nitrogen in and was valued at the price of N in urea and Solution 32, respectively. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

17 Table 4-b. Current and historical fuel, water assessment and component fertilizer prices for southcentral Idaho: and percentage change from 2009 to Change Gasoline $2.95 $3.60 $2.25 $ % Off-Road Diesel $2.55 $3.75 $1.95 $ % Road Diesel $3.05 $4.25 $2.45 $ % Water Assessment $38.20 $38.20 $38.20 $ % Pre-Plant N (46-0-0) $0.49 $0.82 $0.50 $ % Post Plant N (32-0-0) $0.58 $0.85 $0.56 $ % P 2 O 5 Dry ( )* $0.37 $0.75 $0.46 $ % P 2 O 5 Liquid ( )* $0.38 $0.94 $0.63 $ % K 2 O (0-0-60) $0.25 $0.46 $0.69 $ % Sulfur $0.15 $0.40 $0.19 $ % *Nitrogen in and was valued at the price of N in urea and Solution 32, respectively. 13 Table 4-c. Current and historical fuel, water assessment and fertilizer component prices for eastern Idaho: and percentage change from 2008 to Change Gasoline $2.90 $3.50 $2.20 $ % Off-Road Diesel $2.55 $3.70 $1.95 $ % Road Diesel $3.00 $4.20 $2.45 $ % Water Assessment $13.45 $13.55 $14.55 $ % E. Idaho South District $23.00 $23.00 $25.00 $ % E. Idaho North District $10.25 $10.40 $11.05 $ % Pre-Plant N (46-0-0) $0.49 $0.82 $0.50 $ % Post Plant N (32-0-0) $0.58 $0.85 $0.56 $ % P 2 O 5 Dry ( )* $0.37 $0.70 $0.46 $ % P 2 O 5 Liquid ( )* $0.38 $0.95 $0.63 $ % K 2 O (0-0-60) $0.25 $0.50 $0.69 $ % Sulfur $0.15 $0.34 $0.19 $ % *Nitrogen in and was valued at the price of N in urea and Solution 32, respectively. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

18 Table 5. Calculated potato yields used in published University of Idaho costs and returns estimates by region, both with and without fumigation: * Area cwt cwt cwt cwt cwt Southwest Region: Base Yield Russet Burbank: No Fumigation Russet Burbank: Fumigation Southcentral Region: Base Yield Russet Burbank: No Fumigation Russet Burbank: Fumigation Eastern Region: Russet Burbank: Base South Counties* : Base Yield South: No Fumigation South: Fumigation North Counties*: Base Yield North: No Fumigation North: Fumigation Note: Values in bold indicate published CAR estimates. There are no published CAR estimates for those not in bold. These are shown only for comparison. *Eastern Idaho North Counties: Bonneville, Jefferson and Madison. *Eastern Idaho South Counties: Bannock, Bingham and Power. 14 Table 6. Potato yields published by IASS for crop years and the most recent 3-year averages based on historical published data. 3-Year Area Average Southwest Region Southcentral Region Eastern Region South District North District Statewide IASS: Idaho Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Note that the southcentral region 2007 and 2008 values are the author s estimate. USDA changed their procedures so that the value they published was not consistent with earlier historical published data. pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

19 15 Table 7. Historical potato yields reported by IASS for the primary commercial potato counties in eastern Idaho for and historical 3-year averages. 3-Year Area Average North District Counties: Bonneville Jefferson Madison county Average South District Counties: Bannock Bingham Power county Average IASS: Idaho Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA. Blue is forecast or average based on forecast. Table 8. Fumigation percentage by region and yield adjustment factors by region. Region Acres Fumigated Fumigation Adjustment Southwest 60% + 65 cwt Southcentral 50% + 55 cwt Southeastern South District 45% + 45 cwt North District 30% + 40 cwt pcop-10.doc University of Idaho November 18, 2010

20 16 Table 9. Cost changes per acre by region from 2009 to 2010, University of Idaho. Revised 11/18/10 Southwestern Idaho Southcentral Idaho Eastern Idaho-South R. Burbank: Fumigation & No Storage R. Burbank: Fumigation & Storage R.Burbank: No Storage R.Burbank: Storage R.Burbank: Fumigation & Storage R.Burbank: No Storage R.Burbank: Storage R.Burbank: Fumigation & Storage Po1 Po3 Po1 Po2 Po3 Po1 Po5 Po Op. Cost $2,412 $2,631 $1,842 $2,013 $2,342 $1,601 $1,746 $2, Op. Cost $2,250 $2,435 $1,663 $1,808 $2,143 $1,456 $1,579 $1,856 $ Change -$161 -$196 -$179 -$205 -$199 -$145 -$166 -$168 % Change -6.7% -7.5% -9.7% -10.2% -8.5% -9.1% -9.5% -8.3% 2009 Own. Cost $1,208 $1,404 $1,005 $1,145 $1,181 $830 $960 $ Own. Cost $1,227 $1,423 $1,016 $1,171 $1,197 $842 $973 $996 $ Change $19 $19 $11 $26 $16 $12 $13 $17 % Change 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.8% 2009 Total Cost $3,620 $4,035 $2,848 $3,158 $3,523 $2,431 $2,706 $3, Total Cost $3,477 $3,858 $2,679 $2,980 $3,341 $2,298 $2,553 $2,853 $ Change -$142 -$177 -$169 -$179 -$183 -$133 -$153 -$151 % Change -3.9% -4.4% -5.9% -5.7% -5.2% -5.5% -5.6% -5.0% Note: rounded values may not add up. Op. = Operating and Own. = Ownership University of Idaho 11/21/2009

21 17 Table 10. Cost changes per hundredweight by region from 2009 to 2010, University of Idaho. Revised 11/18/10. Southwestern Idaho Southcentral Idaho Eastern Idaho-South R. Burbank: Fumigation & No Storage R. Burbank: Fumigation & Storage R.Burbank: No Storage R.Burbank: Storage R.Burbank: Fumigation & Storage R.Burbank: No Storage R.Burbank: Storage R.Burbank: Fumigation & Storage Po1 Po3 Po1 Po2 Po3 Po1 Po5 Po Op. Cost $4.55 $4.96 $4.49 $4.91 $5.04 $4.57 $4.99 $ Op. Cost $4.21 $4.55 $4.01 $4.36 $4.56 $3.99 $4.33 $4.53 $ Change -$0.34 -$0.41 -$0.49 -$0.55 -$0.48 -$0.58 -$0.66 -$0.60 % Change -7.6% -8.3% -10.8% -11.3% -9.5% -12.8% -13.2% -11.7% 2009 Own. Cost $2.28 $2.65 $2.45 $2.79 $2.54 $2.37 $2.74 $ Own. Cost $2.29 $2.66 $2.45 $2.82 $2.55 $2.31 $2.67 $2.43 $ Change $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.03 $0.01 -$0.07 -$0.08 -$0.05 % Change 0.6% 0.4% -0.2% 1.1% 0.3% -2.7% -2.8% -2.0% 2009 Total Cost $6.83 $7.61 $6.95 $7.70 $7.58 $6.95 $7.73 $ Total Cost $6.50 $7.21 $6.46 $7.18 $7.11 $6.29 $6.99 $6.96 $ Change -$0.33 -$0.40 -$0.49 -$0.52 -$0.47 -$0.65 -$0.74 -$0.65 % Change -4.8% -5.3% -7.1% -6.8% -6.2% -9.4% -9.5% -8.5% Note: rounded values may not add up. Op. = Operating and Own. = Ownership University of Idaho 11/21/2009

22 18 Table 11. Per acre and percentage change in costs from 2009 to 2010 for irrigated Russet Burbank potatoes: no storage costs. Southwestern Idaho Southcentral Idaho Eastern Idaho Item Change from 2009 Change from 2009 Change from 2009 Yield 5 0.9% 5 1.2% % Operating Inputs $ % $ % $ % Seed: -$ % -$ % -$ % Fertilizer: -$ % -$ % -$ % Pesticides & Chemicals: $ % -$ % -$ % Custom & Consultants: $ % $ % $ % Irrigation: $ % $ % -$ % Machinery: Fuel & Repairs $ % $ % $ % Labor $ % $ % $ % Transload $ % $ % $ % Other: Fees & Crop Insurance $ % $ % $ % Operating Interest -$ % -$ % -$ % Total Operating Costs -$ % -$ % -$ % Operating Costs per Unit -$ % -$ % -$ % Ownership Costs: Transloading Equipment $ % $ % $ % Tractors & Equipment $ % $ % $ % Land * $ % $ % $ % Overhead -$ % -$ % -$ % Management Fee $ % $ % $ % Total Ownership Costs $ % $ % $ % Ownership Costs per Unit $ % $ % -$ % Total Costs: Total Costs per Acre -$ % -$ % -$ % Total Cost per Unit -$ % -$ % -$ % Click on: Resources Click on: Project Reports No Stor % Change University of Idaho 9/10/2008

23 19 Table 12. Per acre and percentage change in costs from 2009 to 2010 for irrigated Russet Burbank potatoes: with storage costs & no fumigation. Revised 11/18/10. Southcentral Idaho Eastern Idaho Item Change from 2009 Change from 2009 Yield 5 1.2% % Operating Inputs $ % $ % Seed: -$ % -$ % Fertilizer: -$ % -$ % Pesticides & Cehmicals: -$ % -$ % Custom & Consultants: $ % -$ % Irrigation: $ % -$ % Machinery: $ % $ % Labor: $ % $ % Storage: -$ % -$ % Other: Fees & Crop Insurance $ % $ % Operating Interest -$ % -$ % Total Operating Costs -$ % -$ % Operating Costs per Unit -$ % -$ % Ownership Costs: Potato Storage System $ % $ % Tractors & Equipment $ % $ % Land * $ % $ % Overhead -$ % -$ % Management Fee $ % $ % Total Ownership Costs $ % $ % Ownership Costs per Unit $ % -$ % Total Costs: Total Costs per Acre -$ % -$ % Total Cost per Unit -$ % -$ % Click on: Resources Click on: Project Reports Stor % Change University of Idaho 11/21/2009

24 20 Table 13. Per acre and percentage change in costs from 2009 to 2010 for irrigated Russet Burbank potatoes: with storage costs & fumigation. Southwestern Idaho Southcentral Idaho Eastern Idaho Item Change from 2009 Change from 2009 Change from 2009 Yield 5 0.9% 5 1.1% % Operating Inputs $ % $ % $ % Seed: -$ % -$ % -$ % Fertilizer: -$ % -$ % -$ % Pesticides & Chemicals: $ % -$ % -$ % Custom & Consultants: -$ % $ % -$ % Irrigation: $ % $ % -$ % Machinery: $ % $ % $ % Labor: $ % $ % $ % Storage: -$ % -$ % -$ % Other: Fees & Crop Insurance $ % $ % $ % Operating Interest -$ % -$ % -$ % Total Operating Costs -$ % -$ % -$ % Operating Costs per Unit -$ % -$ % -$ % Ownership Costs: Potato Storage System $ % $ % $ % Tractors & Equipment $ % $ % $ % Land * $ % $ % $ % Overhead -$ % -$ % -$ % Management Fee $ % $ % $ % Total Ownership Costs $ % $ % $ % Ownership Costs per Unit $ % $ % -$ % Total Costs: Total Costs per Acre -$ % -$ % -$ % Total Cost per Unit -$ % -$ % -$ % Click on: Resources Click on: Project Reports Stor & Fum % Change University of Idaho 11/21/2009

25 Appendix 21

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27 Table Southwestern Idaho Irrigated Russet Burbank Commercial Potatoes: With Fumigation and No Storage. Comparison with Final 10/7/2010 Quantity Price or Value or Item Per Acre Unit Cost Cost/Acre Comparison Gross Returns 2009 Yield Change Potatoes 535 cwt $7.00 $3, % Operating Inputs $ Change % Change Seed: $ $ $ % G-3 Burbank Potato Seed 24 cwt $10.50 $ $ $ % Seed Cutting 24 cwt $1.60 $38.40 $36.00 $ % Seed Treatment 24 cwt $0.50 $12.00 $12.00 $ % Fertilizer: $ $ $ % Dry Nitrogen - Preplant 195 lb $0.47 $91.65 $ $ % Dry P2O5 200 lb $0.34 $68.00 $ $ % K2O 270 lb $0.43 $ $ $ % Sulfur 115 lb $0.17 $19.55 $ $ % Micronutrients & Foliars 1 ac $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $ % Liquid Nitrogen 195 lb $0.48 $93.60 $ $ % Liquid P2O5 65 lb $0.50 $32.50 $ $ % Pesticides: $ $ $ % K-Pam 35 gal $6.70 $ $ $ % Admire Pro 8.0 fl oz $3.50 $28.00 $ $ % Quadris (2x) 14.0 fl oz $2.45 $34.30 $ $ % Eptam 7EC 2.0 qt $10.55 $21.10 $19.80 $ % Sencor 75DF 1.0 lb $15.00 $15.00 $ $ % Prowl 3.3EC 2.0 pt $4.15 $8.30 $6.90 $ % Ridomil Gold MZ 2.5 lb $13.95 $34.88 $32.50 $ % Endura (2x) 7.0 oz $5.20 $36.40 $ $ % Dithane F45 Rainshield 1.6 qt $5.95 $9.52 $ $ % Asana XL 9.6 fl oz $0.70 $6.72 $7.20 -$ % Agri-Mek 8.0 fl oz $3.05 $24.40 $ $ % Reglone 1.0 qt $25.25 $25.25 $24.65 $ % Custom & Consultants: $ $ $ % Custom Fumigate: Deep Inject 1 ac $35.00 $35.00 $ $ % Custom Fertilize 2 ac $9.00 $18.00 $17.00 $ % Consultant 1 ac $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $ % Custom Air Spray-10G 3 ac $12.00 $36.00 $36.00 $ % Custom Hauling 535 cwt $0.30 $ $ $ % Irrigation: $ $ $ % Water Assessment 1 ac $45.55 $45.55 $43.25 $ % Irrigation Power-CP * 35 acin $1.65 $57.75 $ $ % Irrigation Repairs-CP * 35 acin $0.45 $15.75 $15.00 $ % Machinery: $ $ $ % Fuel - Gas 2.5 gal $3.00 $7.50 $5.75 $ % Fuel - Diesel 32.3 gal $2.65 $85.60 $64.60 $ % Lube 1 ac $13.95 $13.95 $10.55 $ % Machinery Repairs 1 ac $61.90 $61.90 $58.50 $ % Labor: $ $ $ % Labor (machine) 7.11 hr $15.80 $ $ $ % Labor (irrigation - cp) * 2.44 hr $11.25 $27.45 $26.96 $ % Labor (other) 3.4 hr $9.30 $31.62 $31.28 $ % Transload: $73.32 $62.55 $ % Transloading Costs 535 cwt $0.119 $63.67 $53.00 $ % Transloading Equipment Repair 1 ac $9.65 $9.65 $9.55 $ % Other: $ $ $ % Crop Insurance 1 ac $52.00 $52.00 $52.00 $ % Fees & Assessments 535 cwt $0.16 $85.60 $84.80 $ % Operating 7.0% $68.45 $ $ % Total Operating Costs $2,250 $2,412 -$ % Operating Costs per Unit $4.21 $4.55 -$ % Net Returns Above Operating Expenses $1,495 $1,586 -$91 22 SWI-Po1-10 University of Idaho

28 Table Southwestern Idaho Irrigated Russet Burbank Commercial Potatoes: With Fumigation and No Storage. Comparison with Final 10/7/2010 Quantity Price or Value or Item Per Acre Unit Cost Cost/Acre Comparison Ownership Costs: Transloading Equipment $53.55 $51.95 $ % Tractors & Equipment Insurance $7.10 $6.70 $ % Tractors & Equipment Depreciation & Interest $ $ $ % Irrigation Equipment Depreciation & Interest Land ** Overhead Management Fee $ $ $ % $56.00 $ $ % $ $ $ % 22 Total Ownership Costs $1,227 $1,208 $ % Ownership Costs per Unit $2.29 $2.28 $ % Total Costs per Acre $3,477 $3,620 -$ % Total Cost per Unit $6.50 $6.83 -$ % Returns to Risk $268 $378 -$110 Notes: * Center pivot. ** Includes irrigation system ownership costs. Blue font indicates an increase. A red font indicates a decrease. A green font indicates a change in product or procedure to derive the cost. Procedureal changes can result in different costs than were published the previous year. Breakeven Analysis: - Base + 10% 10% Yield Price Operating Cost Breakeven $4.67 $4.21 $3.82 Ownership Cost Breakeven $2.55 $2.29 $2.08 Total Cost Breakeven $7.22 $6.50 $5.91 Price Yield $6.30 $7.00 $7.70 Operating Cost Breakeven Ownership Cost Breakeven Total Cost Breakeven SWI-Po1-10 University of Idaho

29 Table Southwestern Idaho Irrigated Russet Burbank Commercial Potatoes: With Fumigation and On-Farm Storage. Comparison with Final 10/7/2010 Quantity Price or Value or Item Per Acre Unit Cost Cost/Acre Comparison Gross Returns 2009 Yield Change Potatoes 535 cwt $6.90 $3, % Operating Inputs $ Change % Change Seed: $ $ $ % G-3 Burbank Potato Seed 24 cwt $10.50 $ $ $ % Seed Cutting 24 cwt $1.60 $38.40 $36.00 $ % Seed Treatment 24 cwt $0.50 $12.00 $12.00 $ % Fertilizer: $ $ $ % Dry Nitrogen - Preplant 195 lb $0.47 $91.65 $ $ % Dry P2O5 200 lb $0.34 $68.00 $ $ % K2O 270 lb $0.43 $ $ $ % Sulfur 115 lb $0.17 $19.55 $ $ % Micronutrients & Foliars 1 ac $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $ % Liquid Nitrogen 195 lb $0.48 $93.60 $ $ % Liquid P2O5 65 lb $0.50 $32.50 $ $ % Pesticides: $ $ $ % K-Pam 35 gal $6.70 $ $ $ % Admire Pro 8.0 fl oz $3.50 $28.00 $ $ % Quadris (2x) 14.0 fl oz $2.45 $34.30 $ $ % Eptam 7EC 2.0 qt $10.55 $21.10 $19.80 $ % Sencor 75DF 1.0 lb $15.00 $15.00 $ $ % Prowl 3.3EC 2.0 pt $4.15 $8.30 $6.90 $ % Ridomil Gold MZ 2.5 lb $13.95 $34.88 $32.50 $ % Endura (2x) 7.0 oz $5.20 $36.40 $ $ % Dithane F45 Rainshield 1.6 qt $5.95 $9.52 $ $ % Asana XL 9.6 fl oz $0.70 $6.72 $7.20 -$ % Agri-Mek 8.0 fl oz $3.05 $24.40 $ $ % Reglone 1.0 qt $25.25 $25.25 $24.65 $ % Custom & Consultants: $ $ $ % Custom Fumigate: Deep Inject 1 ac $35.00 $35.00 $ $ % Custom Fertilize 2 ac $9.00 $18.00 $17.00 $ % Consultant 1 ac $20.00 $20.00 $20.00 $ % Custom Air Spray-10G 3 ac $12.00 $36.00 $36.00 $ % $0.00 Irrigation: $ $ $ % Water Assessment 1 ac $45.55 $45.55 $43.25 $ % Irrigation Power-CP 35 acin $1.65 $57.75 $ $ % Irrigation Repairs-CP 35 acin $0.45 $15.75 $15.00 $ % Machinery: $ $ $ % Fuel - Gas 2.5 gal $3.00 $7.50 $5.75 $ % Fuel - Diesel 32.3 gal $2.65 $85.60 $64.60 $ % Lube 1 ac $13.95 $13.95 $10.55 $ % Machinery Repairs 1 ac $61.90 $61.90 $58.50 $ % Labor: $ $ $ % Labor (machine) 7.11 hr $15.80 $ $ $ % Labor (irrigation - cp) 2.44 hr $11.25 $27.45 $26.96 $ % Labor (other) 3.4 hr $9.30 $31.62 $31.28 $ % Storage: $ $ $ % Storage Operating Costs 535 cwt $0.741 $ $ $ % Storage Repairs 1 ac $24.90 $24.90 $24.30 $ % Other: $ $ $ % Crop Insurance 1 ac $52.00 $52.00 $52.00 $ % Fees & Assessments 508 cwt $0.16 $81.28 $80.64 $ % Operating 7.0% $69.55 $ $ % Total Operating Costs $2,435 $2,631 -$ % Operating Costs per Unit $4.55 $4.96 -$ % Net Returns Above Operating Expenses $1,257 $969 $288 SWI-Po3-10 University of Idaho