Household level food security impacts (Module 5) Irini Maltsoglou, Bioenergy and Food Security Project

Transcription

1 Household level food security impacts (Module 5) Irini Maltsoglou, Bioenergy and Food Security Project BEFS Policy Training Dar Es Salaam January 2010

2 BEFS Analytical Framework 2: How? 1: Where? 5: Household impacts? (Short term) Bioenergy & Food Security 3: Policy impacts? 4: Economy impacts? Supporting national policy development 2

3 Module 5: Household level impacts Questions addressed Esempio titolo International & domestic shocks, including bioenergy Food price changes Vulnerable Groups Key Question: Which are the most vulnerable household groups? 3

4 Which commodities do we focus on in Tanzania? Ranking Commodity Calorie Share 1 Maize 33.4 Food security commodities: Selected based on calorie consumption data. Main focus on Maize and Cassava Cassava Rice (Milled Equivalent) Wheat Sorghum Sweet Potatoes Sugar (Raw Equivalent) Palm Oil Beans Beverages, Fermented Milk Excluding Butter Bovine Meat Pulses, Other Plantains Millet 1.4 Subtotal share for selected items Total Calories per capita Source: FAOSTAT 4

5 Short run effects on households access to food Households may produce and consume a crop at the same time Price increases will affect households in different ways: Net consumers: Those who buy more food than they sell will be hurt by higher prices. Net producers: Those who sell more food than they buy benefit from higher prices. Given a price change, we calculate the net welfare impact on the household based on the position of the household...data... 5

6 Kilimanjaro: Household welfare impacts by quintile (Rural households, 10% producer price increase) 0.6 Maize Welfare change (%) Quintile Cassava Welfare change (%) Quintile

7 Ruvuma: Household welfare impacts by quintile (Rural households, 10% producer price increase) 0.6 Maize Welfare change (%) Quintile Cassava Welfare change (%) Quintile

8 Maize and Cassava Price Changes Commodity and Marketing Level Real Percent Change Between 2003 and 2008 Domestic Retail Fresh Cassava Domestic Retail Dried Cassava Domestic Maize Wholesale Source: Ministry of Trade, Calculations by the authors 8

9 Crop price variation due to new market What to do to keep cassava prices stable? Ensure supply response: New Land (expansion) Investment in agriculture (yield increases) 9

10 Necessary steps forward Availability of detailed household data to ensure appropriate monitoring of vulnerable segments of the population The analysis can be applied to any crop of interest and other household data sets Capacity building to ensure that key policy makers can adequately monitor the implications of bioenergy developments. 10

11 THANK YOU! Irini Maltsoglou, BEFS FAO

12 Module 5: Household level impacts Esempio titolo Land Households Food Security: Availability & Access Income & labour Price of main food crops Price Bioenergy 12

13 Maize Price in Tanzania Domestic World Price (TZS/kg) Year 13

14 Cassava Price in Tanzania Price (Real TZS/kg) Cassava Fresh Cassava Dried maize and cassava market are interlinked Year 14

15 What is our domestic position (vulnerability)? Net trade position Items Production quantity (MT) Import quantity (MT) Export quantity (MT) Netimporter Netexporter Maize 3,288,000 44,500 98, Cassava 7,061, Rice 957,000 18,846 3, Wheat 87, ,732 36, Sorghum 653, Sweet potatoes 781, Sugar Cane 1,374, ,895 27, Palm oil 63, ,272 6, Beans 261, , Banana 2,007, Source: FAOSTAT 15

16 The access dimension of food security-- Food price increase Bioenergy Food Security- Access Bioenergy developments Food prices rise Households? (Domestic and international) (Short term) 16

17 PERU: Country level welfare impact for a 10% producer price increase for rice Arroz Urbano Arroz Rural Arroz Total

18 Short run effects on households access to food Changes in food prices can derive from international and domestic supply and demand shocks including biofuels demand. In the short run households will be hit by food price increases Initially, we need to understand how the price changes can impact the country as a whole and which price changes it is most vulnerable to 18

19 Policy implications AMMEND At the country level allows to understand if the country is particularly susceptible to price changes in any of the important food security commodities Clarifies how linked the commodity prices are to international price movements. Based on this the policy maker will be more aware of the impact of global market developments on domestic food prices. From a policy perspective this is important since international biofuel developments are taking place anyway and, if domestic prices are linked to international price movements, being aware of that will be important. For example if the poorer households in urban areas are net cassava consumers and the cassava price is linked to the maize price, maize price increases will translate to cassava price increases and hit the food security status of the poorest segment of the population in urban areas. Household level analysis allows the policy makers to identify the most vulnerable household groups. Therefore if from a medium term perspective pushing for bioenergy developments is welcomed, there might be some short term impacts that need to be mitigated. Following the example above, if in the medium term we show that employment also improves for the poorer urban quintile, this might not be immediate. 19

20 Which commodities do we focus on in Peru? Potential bioenergy feedstock-government s indications: Ethanol: Sugar and sweet sorghum Biodiesel: Palm oil and jatropha Food security commodities: Selected based on calorie consumption data. Main focus on rice, sugar and wheat Ranking Commodity Calorie share 1 Rice (Milled Equivalent) Sugar (Raw Equivalent) Wheat Potatoes Maize Cassava Soyabean Oil Milk - Excluding Butter Plantains Fish, Body Oil Poultry Meat Barley Beverages, Alcoholic Pulses, Other Palm Oil Fruits, Other 1.1 Subtotal share for selected items 84.4 Total Calories per capita 2176 Source: FAOSTAT 20

21 Overview of Energy and Economy in Peru PBI Percápita Porcentaje Tasa de Crecimiento del PBI Nuevos soles Años Año Participación del sector Agrícola respecto al PBI 9.5% Energy Matrix Petróleo y Gas Natural 67.6%, Biomasa 15 %, Hidroenergia 12%, Carbón Mineral 5%, Otros 0.4 % Fuentes: MINEM-OGP Porcentaje 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% Año 21

22 Producer price changes Wheat Potato Commodity Rice Sugar (White, brown) * White maiz Real percentage price changes , * Based on the wholesale price Source: Author calculations based on INEI data. 22

23 A list of requirements for the sustainability of bioenergy developments The preliminary conclusions drawn by the BEFS project indicate that bioenergy development which safeguards food security is only sustainable if it does not hinder the natural resource base involves smallholders, increases employment and takes into account the specific risks for subsistence farmers increases access to markets and infrastructure builds domestic skills and expertise ensures localized benefits and the long term sustainability of the industry monitors welfare impacts at the household level respects and protects the livelihoods of women strengthen farmers associations to ensure fair contract arrangements and full information further enhances institutional capacity to support the new industry The assessment results contain details on how to achieve this. 23

24 Concluding remarks BEFS can show which areas should be developed for biofuel production, whilst accounting for food production and environmental constraints BEFS can show implications for the economy, labour, poverty and which segments of the population will loose or will gain...nevertheless, the success of sustainable bioenergy developments will heavily rely on meticulous managements and, as generally for agriculture, on investment in infrastructure, agriculture R&D and human capital development... 24