2014: Record Global Meat Trade

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1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service November 3 4: Record Global Meat Trade Million Tons 3 Exports 5 CWE/RTC 5 Poultry Pork 5 Beef Global meat (beef, pork, poultry) exports have grown over 4 percent in less than years, with 4 forecast at another record on rising incomes and stronger demand. Beef and broiler meat are expected to reach new records and pork is forecast at near record levels. Mounting demand from East Asia is expected to lift beef and pork significantly. For broiler meat, growth continues from the Middle Eastern and Sub-Saharan African regions. Broiler meat demand is expanding at a faster rate because it is highly price competitive with other meat proteins. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade November 4 Contents Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry Beef Beef and Veal: 4 Forecast Overview Beef Summary Tables Cattle Summary Tables Pork Pork: 4 Forecast Overview Pork Summary Tables Swine Summary Tables Poultry Meat Broiler Meat: 4 Forecast Overview Turkey Meat: 4 Forecast Overview Broiler Meat Summary Tables Turkey Meat Summary Tables Notes to Readers November 3

3 Production 9 3 (p) 4 (f) Percent Change 3 to 4 Beef and Veal / 57,376 57,567 57,4 57,558 58,485 58,65.% Pork /,33 3,88,85 5,65 7,54 8,94.3% Broiler and Turkey / 78,734 83,547 86,587 88,684 9,57 9,489.7% Consumption 36,433 44,3 46,8 5,893 56,56 6,38.6% Beef and Veal / 56,46 56,47 55,7 56,7 56,8 56,96.% Pork /,38 3,45,934 5,8 7,4 8,67.3% Broiler & Turkey / 77,67 8,47 85,6 86,758 88,9 9,89.5% Imports 34,34 4,79 4,75 47,893 5,9 55,9.5% Beef and Veal / 6,55 6,69 6,48 6,66 7,75 7, % Pork / 5,548 5,89 6,6 6,99 6,8 6,93.5% Broiler and Turkey / 7,76 8,3 8,63 9, 9,85 9,6.9% Exports 9,86,73,64,545 3,7 3,66.6% Beef and Veal / 7,449 7,8 8,86 8,46 8,93 9, 3.4% Pork / 5,63 6,3 6,948 7,54 7,58 7,43.6% Broiler and Turkey / 8,97 9,458,67,79,73, % U.S. Exports Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry,5 3,39 5, 6,9 7,34 7,9 3.% Beef and Veal / 878,43,63,3,5,43-6.5% Pork /,857,95,354,44,9,39 4.3% Broiler and Turkey / 3,335 3,33 3,48 3,66 3,69 3,779.4% 6,7 6,89 7,97 7,6 7,99 7,.6% U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders Beef and Veal / % 3% 6% 4% 3% % Pork / 33% 3% 34% 34% 3% 33% Broiler and Turkey / 37% 35% 34% 34% 33% 33% Combined 8% 7% 8% 8% 6% 6% Notes: /, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) /, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Note to Readers: s include only those countries that make up USDA s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically. November 3

4 BEEF AND VEAL: 4 FORECAST OVERVIEW Global production for 4 is forecast up marginally at 58.6 million tons as most major producers are expected to benefit from cheaper feed supplies and rising import demand (mostly from and Hong Kong). However, the is forecast to drop 6 percent because cattle inventories continue to shrink. Global consumption is forecast slightly above last year s record, at 57. million tons, while international trade is expected to continue reaching new records. Exports are forecast at 9. million tons, expanding 4 percent in just 5 years, with and India accounting for most of that growth. Although still the world s largest beef producer, production is forecast to plunge 6 percent to. million tons. Declining cattle inventories, spurred by lower calf crops in recent years, and fewer live cattle imports have resulted in tight supplies available for slaughter. Furthermore, 4 does not bode well for short-term recovery as heifer retention may further limit supplies of slaughter cattle. Consumption is forecast down 5 percent to. million tons. Million Tons 3 U.S. Beef Production: Declines Sharply CWE The is expected to remain a net beef exporter with exports forecast down 6 percent to. million tons and imports virtually unchanged at. million tons. Exports are constrained by tight domestic supplies and less competitive prices while import growth is limited by tight supplies from major suppliers (, Australia, and New Zealand). Production is forecast up 3 percent at a record 9.9 million tons, driven by an expanding herd, which is aided by government programs subsidizing interest rates to encourage pasture improvements and the use of higher quality genetics. Also contributing to larger beef supplies is an increase in feedlots. Higher cattle prices and moderating feed prices are expected to encourage producers to use more feed and other ingredients during the dry season to maintain weights. Consumption continues to modestly expand, reportedly constrained by inflation and rising consumer debt. Exports are forecast nearly 8 percent higher at over.9 million tons, mostly driven by increased competiveness from the depreciation of the Real. November 3

5 Beef production is forecast to rise slightly to 7.8 million tons as relatively low feed prices and high beef and milk prices support herd expansion and increased supplies of slaughter cattle. Beef consumption remains stagnant at just over 7.8 million tons. The additional domestic production is expected to be exported, with volumes projected nearly 4 percent higher to 7, tons. Imports are unchanged at 35, tons. Beef production is forecast up percent at nearly 5.8 million tons on increased slaughter and higher cattle weights due to stronger demand. High profit margins are attracting large investments from cattle and beef companies, while backyard producers continue to exit the industry because of lower efficiency and limited investment. Consumption is expected to continue outpacing production, with the recent surge in demand attributed to food safety incidents in other meat products (poultry and pork), which encouraged an increase in beef consumption. Imports are forecast at a record 475, tons, up 9 percent due to increased demand, favorable import prices, and high domestic prices. Along with Hong Kong, their imports account for two thirds of world import growth. 's Imports Surge to Meet Demand Thousand Tons 5 Percent CWE Imports Imports as a Percent of Consumption India Strong demand for dairy products encourages continued expansion in the bovine herd, as higher dairy prices spur the development of more commercial farms. As a result, the herd is forecast to grow percent to almost 33 million head. While a larger herd supports an increase in beef production (5 percent to a record of nearly 4. million tons), government programs also encourage production. For instance, The Salvaging and Rearing of Male Buffalo Calves Scheme and The Utilization of Fallen Animals improved carcass utilization. Both these programs were incorporated in the government s th Five Year Plan (7-) and will also be in included in the th Five Year Plan (-7). November 3

6 Indian Herd Expansion Supports More Meat Production Million Head 34 Million Tons CWE Bovine Herd Beef Production Beef exports are forecast 6 percent higher at a record of nearly.8 million tons, accounting for about percent of world trade. Supplying lower-quality, price-competitive halal meat are comparative advantages to expanding export sales to key Southeast Asian, African and Middle Eastern markets. However, lack of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) status classification with the OIE (World Organization for Animal Health) continues to constrain access to new markets. Argentina Production is forecast up slightly at over.8 million tons with increasing cattle herds supporting ample supplies for slaughter. Higher cattle prices are expected to improve returns that could help offset expected inflation. Government policies and market dynamics have contributed to falling carcass weights, which could limit the growth in production. Exports are forecast up percent at, tons on steady foreign demand and a devaluing Peso. Increased demand from and Hong Kong also supports expansion. Australia Production is forecast virtually unchanged at nearly.3 million tons. Exports are forecast up slightly at a record.5 million tons, supported by increased global demand for beef. However, tight supplies will limit export growth. Production is marginally higher at nearly.8 million tons as feeding practices and genetic improvements are slowly improving weight gains and carcass yields. However, drought conditions have resulted in reduced herds, and supplies of slaughter cattle are expected to be tight. Exports are forecast to rise 7 percent to a record, tons. The improved quality, safety and sophistication of beef operations have opened doors for increased exports over the past few years. However, the loss of the n market (based on concerns of ractopamine use) is a setback, although the industry is cultivating other markets. Imports are forecast up 4 percent to 35, tons. November 3

7 Production is forecast down modestly to just under.4 million tons on declining inventories, calf crops and slaughter, despite federal and regional government support programs to stimulate livestock development. Consumption is expected to remain at.4 million tons. Imports are forecast slightly higher at just over. million tons as traders are expected to better utilize available tariff rate quota (TRQ) volumes, and certain neighboring countries (such as Belarus) are able to export duty-free beef to. Production is forecast to remain near. million tons as cattle slaughter and carcass weights are not expected to change significantly. Supplies of slaughter cattle remain relatively tight, reflecting declines in calf production. Exports are expected to rise slightly to 35, tons, after decreasing the four previous years. Imports are forecast percent lower at 35, tons. New Zealand Production is forecast down slightly to 64, tons as the cattle sector continues to recover from drought. The beef production and processing industry is becoming increasingly reliant on the dairy sector, which contributes an estimated 7 to 8 percent of total slaughter. Exports are forecast to fall percent to 536, tons on lower production. Uruguay Production is forecast 7 percent higher at 59, tons, as cattle herd expansion will support ample supplies of slaughter cattle. The calf crop is expected to be a record 3 million head. Good weather and positive returns continue to encourage producers to improve herd management and output. Exports are forecast 9 percent higher at 45, tons, benefiting largely from increased Chinese demand. During January to August 3, became its top market, accounting for nearly 6 percent of exports compared to less than 5 percent during. Paraguay Production is forecast 8 percent higher at 54, tons supported by herd expansion. Improvements in herd management such as reproductive efficiency are still yet to be undertaken, although large investments are being made in the sector. Exports are forecast up 8 percent at a record 35, tons, although the trade is largely dependent on. Outbreaks of FMD in and cut its access to many markets and recovery has been slow, although access to Chile and Israel has been restored. Japan Production is forecast down percent at 495, tons on reduced slaughter due to tighter cattle supplies. Imports are forecast up slightly at 78, tons. Some of this growth is attributed to the new beef trade program (the Less than 3 months Quality System Assessment program [LT QSA 3] which was implemented in February 3). The program has expanded imports from the, displacing Australia. Growth in demand for U.S. beef is mainly driven by the food service sector (especially barbecue and beef bowl cuisine) and ready-to-eat food business (take-out meals and lunch boxes). November 3

8 South Korea Lower slaughter driven by reduced calf crops and inventories are expected to result in a 6 percent decrease in beef production, at 37, tons. Beef cattle inventories have begun to decline as smallsized breeding farms exit the sector due to high feed and low calf prices. As these farms (which account for about 9 percent of total calf production) cease operations, the foundation for raising Hanwoo (domestic) cattle could be adversely impacted. Imports are forecast to rise 8 percent to 398, tons to offset lower production. Domestic beef prices will continue to fall as the government and industry conduct aggressive marketing through discounted prices, whereas U.S. beef is becoming more competitive vis-à-vis other suppliers. November 3

9 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov Production 8,935 9,5 9,3 9,37 9,6 9,9 7,93 8, 8,4 7,7 7,69 7,76 5,764 5,6 5,55 5,54 5,637 5,75 India,54,84 3,44 3,45 3,75 3,95 Argentina 3,38,6,53,6,8,84 Australia,6,9,9,5,7,65,75,745,84,8,775,795 Pakistan,437,485,536,55,575,6,46,435,36,38,4,38,5,73,54,64,5, 9,9 9,76 8,976 9, 9,7 9,347 Foreign 45,485 45,5 45,47 45,79 46,783 47,67,89,46,983,849,7,8 57,376 57,567 57,4 57,558 58,485 58,65 Dom. Consumption 7,374 7,59 7,73 7,845 7,86 8, 8,84 8, 8,34 7,76 7,78 7,84 5,749 5,589 5,54 5,597 6,7 6,98 Argentina,76,346,3,458,6,6,55,487,343,395,39,39 India,95,95,976,4,,,976,938,9,836,795,8 Pakistan,4,45,53,5,57,55 Japan,,5,37,55,75,78,6,,9,3,8,5 9,986,64,467,565,88,4 Foreign 44,77 44,379 44,64 44,78 45,8 45,947,39,38,646,739,638,4 56,46 56,47 55,7 56,7 56,8 56,96 Note: May contain meat of other bovines. November 3

10 Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov Imports,53,57 99,3,, Japan Hong Kong Korea, South Egypt Venezuela ,6,86,83,85,89,88 Foreign 5,36 5,577 5,475 5,69 6,5 6,46,9,4 933,7,4,7 6,55 6,69 6,48 6,66 7,75 7,487 Exports,596,558,34,54,8,94 India 69 97,68,4,65,75 Australia,364,368,4,47,53,545 New Zealand Uruguay Paraguay Argentina Foreign 6,57 6,777 6,83 7,33 7,788 8,59 878,43,63,3,5,43 7,449 7,8 8,86 8,46 8,93 9, Note: May contain meat of other bovines. November 3

11 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov Cattle Beg. Stks India 39,9 36,4 3,8 33,7 37, 39,775 79,54 85,59 9,95 97,55 3,73 8,68 5,7 5,43 4,8 4,346 4,5 4,3 9,48 89,89 87,836 86,697 87, 87,6 Argentina 54,6 49,57 48,56 49,597 5,95 5,95 Colombia 3,775 3,845 3,97 3,9 3,576 3,5 Australia 7,3 7,96 7,55 8,56 8,48 8,365,4,677 9,97 9,695 9,58 9,,666,9,456,9 8,5 7,637 3,3,67,55,5,3,35 75,989 57,478 56,8 55,77 55,954 55,67 Foreign 93,65 97,643 9,749 99,3 938,7 945,857 94,5 93,88 9,68 9,769 89,3 88,3,5,7,,54,3,43,9,79,7,37,34,57 Production (Calf Crop) India 6, 6,7 6,5 63,5 64,5 65,5 49,5 49, 49,445 49,69 5,85 5,3 4,576 4,5 4,9 4,95 4,55 4,35 3, 9, 9,75 9,97 9,8 9,9 Argentina,,6 3, 3,7 4, 4,3 Australia,5 8,84 9,64 8,539 9, 8,75 7,389 6,95 6,8 6,95 6,9 6,8 6,875 7, 6,9 6,8 6,7 6,675 Colombia 5,3 5, 5,5 5,5 5, 5, New Zealand 4,53 4,53 4,786 4,945 4,893 4,985,37 5,97 6,3 5,964 5,878 6,95 Foreign 5,55 4,496 44,948 46,33 48,88 5,675 35,939 35,695 35,33 34,79 33,7 33,3 86,94 77,9 8,6 8,4 8,58 84,975 Notes: / May contain other bovines. / From, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded. November 3

12 Cattle Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov Imports Venezuela Egypt Japan Ukraine Belarus Argentina Foreign 8,4 74,5,7,54,,84,7,84,93,95,84 3,35,8 3,335 3, 3,4 Exports 98,6,435,539,,5,67, Australia Colombia Uruguay New Zealand Foreign 4,68 4,636 4,67 4,63 4,3 4, ,6 4,77 4,46 4,8 4,98 4,35 Notes: / May contain other bovines. / From, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded. November 3

13 PORK: 4 FORECAST OVERVIEW Global pork production for 4, continuing its decade long expansion at a fairly consistent rate, is projected at a record 8.9 million tons on lower expected feed costs and growing demand. Global trade has expanded by about 5 percent in just five years due to rising incomes and expanding import demand particularly East Asia and North America. Marginally higher import demand is expected to be met by several major suppliers and a growing number of nontraditional ones, with exports forecast at 7. million tons. 57 Now Accounts for Over Half of Global Pork Production 5 Record Global Production and Exports Forecast Million Tons CWE 8 CWE Rest of World Production Exports Production Exports Production is forecast moderately higher at.8 million tons on increased slaughter rates and heavier carcass weights. Growth is supported by lower feed costs and strong demand, although tempered by continuing reports of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) outbreaks. Hog producers are slowly expanding the breeding herd, with sow stocks and pig production forecast slightly higher. The is expected to remain the world s leading exporter, forecast slightly higher at.4 million tons. Rising consumer incomes in and lower tariff rates in South Korea are expected to help boost import demand. Exports to Japan are expected to remain stable, although more chilled product has recently been shipped. The remains ineligible to ship to in the absence of ractopamine-free certification. Imports are virtually unchanged at 39, tons. Production has consistently expanded over the past several years and is forecast at another record 54.7 million tons as lower expected input costs and increasing demand encourage growth. Government subsidies on sows encouraged hog producers to retain capacity despite poor returns November 3

14 in 3 resulting from high input prices and weaker demand growth. Imports are expected to grow slightly to a record 775, tons, yet still only account for just over percent of consumption. Swine exports are forecast up slightly to.8 million head on stronger import demand from Hong Kong and Macau. Production is expected to remain flat at.5 million tons despite lower feed costs, as fewer head slaughtered offset higher average carcass weights. Consumption is also expected to remain flat, as the economic slowdown may have caused some shift to lower priced poultry products. Exports are forecast to be unchanged at. million tons, with greater shipments to and South Korea offset by weaker n demand. Stagnant production in Denmark, the main pork exporter, is expected to limit future growth. Production is forecast marginally higher to a record 3.4 million tons on lower feed costs and higher pork prices. Stronger demand is expected from both domestic and export markets. Exports are forecast modestly higher to 6, tons. is expected to remain s top market, although sanitary-related plant delistings are still a concern. Greater sales are expected to Ukraine, which reopened to after temporary restrictions were lifted. recently gained access to the Japanese market, but could be pressed to compete in a mature market where competitors have established market positions. Production is forecast up slightly to.9 million tons on lower feed costs and stronger domestic demand. Higher slaughter is expected despite a slightly smaller forecast breeding herd and pig crop. Exports are expected to remain flat for the third consecutive year at. million tons despite a slightly weaker Canadian dollar. Higher volumes to Asia and Eastern European markets are expected to offset lower sales to and South Korea. Exports to the may grow slightly, but could be constrained by increasing U.S. domestic production. Production is expected to continue to expand, forecast up slightly at.3 million tons aided by government supports and lower feed costs. The government s pork support program is designed to subsidize interest rates for investments in hog production and pork processing. Imports are raised marginally to 9, tons with access restored to Belarusian pork. s ractopamine-free import certification requirements continue to limit purchases from and completely block those from the. is in the process of implementing a ractopamine-free certification system. November 3

15 Japan Production is unchanged at.3 million tons. Imports are forecast slightly higher at almost.3 million tons with stronger demand for chilled product offsetting weaker demand for frozen. Imports of frozen pork may be limited by increased availability of frozen beef, which can be substituted in ready-to-eat products. Production is forecast modestly higher at.3 million tons on rising domestic demand and more competitive pricing vis-à-vis beef. Producers continue to incorporate new breeding lines and improved farm management techniques. Imports are expected to grow slightly to a record 8, tons. The majority of imports are fresh hams, picnics, and mechanically deboned meat used for the preparation of sausages, deli hams, and cold cuts. Although is a net pork importer, exports are forecast at a record, tons, largely on their increasing duty-free quota with Japan. South Korea Production is forecast moderately lower at. million tons as a smaller breeding herd is expected to reduce supplies of slaughter hogs. Average carcass weights are expected to decline, as revised grading standards provide incentives for lower slaughter weights. With lower production, imports are forecast up to 45, tons. Korean Free Trade Agreements (FTA s) with the and the EU are resulting in lower tariff rates, encouraging additional purchases of frozen hams and shoulders. November 3

16 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov Production 54,7 53,8 5,35 49,5 5,7 48,95,45,45,56,953,67, 3,435 3,37 3,33 3,7 3,95 3,3,3,9,75,,9,844,6,,75,3,9,9 Vietnam,85,835,84,797,77,788,39,35,3,88,6,46 Philippines,35,35,97,67,9,3 Japan,9,7,39,,75,6,6,,86 837,,6 Korea, South Taiwan Ukraine Chile Argentina Belarus,984 3,3 3,7 3,5,9,8 98,39 97,6 95,96 9,954 93, 89,88 Foreign,785,58,555,33,86,44 8,94 7,54 5,65,85 3,88,33 Dom. Consumption 55,6 54,5 5,75 5,4 5,57 48,83,7,68,375,8,95,69 3, 3,9 3,45,97,835,79,86,77,67,644,577,43,555,553,557,5,488,467 Japan,45,5,6,3,7,7 Vietnam,97,945,85,7,784,77,6,598,546,487,539,48 Korea, South,573,533,446,43,48,356 Philippines,, Ukraine Taiwan Hong Kong Australia Chile 4,3 4,83 4, 3,93 3,756 3,65 99,886 98,66 96,677 93,594 94,39 9,5 Foreign 8,785 8,66 8,44 8,34 8,654 9,3 8,67 7,4 5,8,934 3,45,38 November 3

17 Pork Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent) Nov Imports,5,4,59,54,98,38 Japan 9 9, Korea, South Hong Kong Australia Ukraine Philippines Belarus Singapore Angola Colombia Taiwan ,53 6,4 6,555 6,47 5,5 5,7 Foreign ,93 6,8 6,99 6,6 5,89 5,548 Exports,,,7,5,75,366,45,45,43,97,59, Chile Belarus Australia Vietnam Ukraine ,853 4,766 4,83 4,594 4,6 3,775 Foreign,39,9,44,354,95,857 7,43 7,58 7,54 6,948 6,3 5,63 November 3

18 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov Beginning Stocks 46,93 469,96 477,5 473,34 474,9 475,898 53,77 5,78 5,36 49,79 47, 45,5 33,89 35, 36,65 38,336 38,578 38,648 6,65 7,36 7,3 7,58 8,793,5,7,465,69,78,668 3,8 9,3 8,979 9,7 9,76 9,5 9,85 Japan 9,899, 9,768 9,735 9,685 9,57 Korea, South 8,3 8,7 8,449 8,7 9,96 9, Ukraine 6,56 7,577 7,96 7,373 7,577 7,89 Belarus 3,74 3,78 3,887 3,989 4,43 4,344,4,3,89,85,38, Foreign 79,45 78,94 737,49 73, ,39 735,78 67,48 64,887 64,95 66,36 66,373 67, , ,8 8, ,695 8,4 83,557 Production (Pig Crop) 655,6 677,8 66,6 697,8 7,558 73,5 57,975 63,76 64,655 57,7 57, 58, 35,89 36,97 37,75 37,7 38, 38,795 8,798 9,47 3,65 33,3 35, 36, 9,4 8,688 8,58 8,48 7,9 7,7 Japan 7,7 7,5 7, 7,3 7,3 7,3 5,966 6, 6,35 6,5 6,8 6,85 Korea, South 4,96 4,93 3,38 6,34 6,3 5,8 Ukraine 7,4 8,76 8,9 8,538 9,63 9,58 Belarus 4,95 5,5 5,75 5,75 5,45 5,55 4,39 4,64 4,659 4,58 4,737 4,77 Foreign,73,5,,434,86,759,3,8,38,38,54,45 4,54 3,685 5,838 7,6 8,853,87,87,557,6,9,,597,4,883,57,6,75,95 November 3

19 Swine Selected Countries Summary (in, head) Nov Imports Ukraine , Korea, South 5 3 Belarus 5 Japan Australia ,35 Foreign 4,9 4,957 5,656 5,795 5,749 6,365 5,4 5,84 6,8 6,744 6,65 7,67 Exports 4,9 4,98 5,676 5,8 5,76 6,376,77,7,656,563,748, ,,, Belarus Australia Japan Korea, South 7,74 7,49 8,8 8,54 8,577 9,63 Foreign ,94 7,75 8,36 8,544 8,59 9,634 November 3

20 BROILER MEAT: 4 FORECAST OVERVIEW For 4, global production continues to hit new records surging 8 percent in just five years. But perhaps more importantly, the rate of growth is expected to rise for the first time in four years on declining costs and price competiveness vis-à-vis other meat proteins. Global exports have now expanded by over 5 percent in the past five years, with more than 8 percent of that growth attributed to Middle Eastern and Sub-Saharan African demand. Non-traditional exporters such as Turkey and Ukraine have a logistical and competitive advantage in those markets vis-àvis traditional exporters, and the. 7% Global Production Growth Rate Rebounds 88 Almost Half of World Broiler Meat Exports Directed to the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa Rate of Production Growth 6% 5% 4% 3% % % Million Tons Milion Tons Middle East & Sub- Saharan Africa Rest of World % Production is forecast to increase 3 percent to a record 7.5 million tons on lower input costs and greater domestic demand after prolonged supply discipline to maintain margins. Exports are forecast at a record 3.4 million tons with greater exportable supplies and growing demand from, Iraq and Sub-Saharan Africa. Production is forecast up slightly to a record 3. million tons as a result of ample feed supplies. However, domestic consumption is constrained by the high level of consumer debt and competition from beef and pork. Exports remain at a record 3.6 million tons with the weaker Real. Demand from the Middle East has been expanding because ian exporters can supply Halal-certified whole birds unlike other traditional competitors. India Production is forecast to rise 6 percent to 3.6 million tons fueled by escalating demand for animal protein and a rising preference for processed poultry products, an indication of changing tastes and preferences. The and continue to seek access to this closed and potentially lucrative market. November 3

21 Production has been expanding rapidly to a record 3.3 million tons based on government support to improve genetics, construct new enterprises and modernize existing ones. Government sales of low priced feed grains should reduce costs and help stimulate production. Imports are forecast to decline slightly to 53, tons with greater production and falling prices. Exports are up 8 percent to 65, tons driven by stronger demand from Kazakhstan. Production is forecast up slightly to a record 3.7 million tons due to new government subsidies for breeding stock purchases. Although Avian Influenza (AI) reemerged in Hebei and Guangzhou provinces during the summer, consumption is increasing gradually along with confidence in domestic poultry. Exports, primarily to Japan, are expected to remain flat at 45, tons. continues to seek eligibility to export processed poultry products to the. Production is forecast to expand to a record 9.9 million tons as a result of greater domestic demand for lower cost supplies of animal protein and reduced feed costs. Exports remain flat at. million tons. The recent suspension of export refunds for poultry meat is expected to diminish competiveness. Thailand Production is forecast to rise by 8 percent to a record.6 million tons due to greater demand and lower feed costs. Despite the recent exit of a major producer and processer (Saha Farm Group), and subsequent price increase, consumption is not expected to be constrained. Exports are up 7 percent to 58, tons on higher demand from Japan and the. Turkey Production is forecast up 3 percent to a record.8 million tons and exports are forecast to jump over percent to 44, tons on growing demand from Iraq and other Middle East markets. As a result of a logistical advantage and the ability to supply Halal-certified whole birds, exports have more than quadrupled over the past five years.. Production is slightly higher at about 3. million tons. Continued sector consolidation and improved efficiencies, along with declining feed prices are expected to help offset biosecurity costs related to AI. Imports, mostly from the, are forecast to expand to 69, tons. Argentina Production is projected up slightly at a record. million tons. Lower feed prices and growth in domestic demand will support the expansion. Exports are forecast up percent to 355, tons with greater demand from Venezuela, South Africa and Chile. November 3

22 Saudi Arabia Imports are forecast to expand to a record 85, tons on growing demand for ready-to-cook and processed poultry products, reflecting changes in tastes, preferences and demographics. Iraq Imports are forecast up 7 percent to a record 7, tons with a greater share of the market captured by Turkey at the expense of and the. November 3

23 TURKEY MEAT: 4 FORECAST OVERVIEW Production is forecast up 3 percent to a record.7 million tons on lower feed prices. Exports are forecast to rise 5 percent to 354, tons on expanding shipments to East Asia although remains the major market. Production is virtually unchanged as a result of lower profitability vis-à-vis broiler meat. Exports are forecast down by 7 percent to 3, tons due to less competitive prices. Production is forecast to rise 3 percent to 535, tons on continued expansion in domestic and foreign demand and lower feed prices. Exports are forecast up slightly to 8, tons due to growing demand, mainly from the, Angola and Chile. November 3

24 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov Production,,55 3, 3,7 3,5 3,7,3,3,863,645,77 3, 8,756 9, 9,3 9,55 9,75 9,9 India,55,65,9 3,6 3,4 3,65,6,3,575,83 3,5 3,3,78,8,96,958 3, 3,45 Argentina,5,68,77,4,, Turkey,8,4,69,77,76,8 Thailand,,8,35,55,5,65 Indonesia,49,465,55,54,55,565 3, 4,8 4,567 4,99 5,358 5,86 Foreign 57,78 6,77 64,585 66,583 67,68 69,56 5,935 6,563 6,694 6,6 6,958 7,456 73,76 78,335 8,79 83,4 84,64 86,98 Dom. Consumption,,457 3,5 3,543 3,345 3,555 8,77 8,955 9, 9,85 9,35 9,465 7,8 9,4 9,4 9,39 9,9 9,396,98,957 3,3 3,3 3,53 3,765 3,64 3,364 3,473 3,569 3,67 3,73 India,549,648,89 3,56 3,46 3,6 Japan,979,8,4,3,65,55 South Africa,443,54,687,756,757,755 Argentina,37,475,556,76,7,747 Indonesia,4,465,55,54,55,565 6,9 7,788 8,7 9,6 9,79,34 Foreign 59,84 63,754 66,388 68,3 69,36 7,988,946 3,47 3,665 3,345 3,656 4,87 7,76 77,6 8,53 8,655 83,7 85,75 Note: Chicken paws are excluded. November 3

25 Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov Imports Japan Saudi Arabia Iraq Angola South Africa Venezuela ,56,9 3, 3,6 3,89 3,5 Foreign 7,34 7,797 8,4 8,578 8,654 8, ,349 7,845 8,89 8,69 8,76 8,857 Exports 3, 3,7 3,443 3,58 3,58 3, ,44,94,95,5 Thailand Turkey Argentina Ukraine Belarus Chile Foreign 5,34 5,8 6,376 6,783 7,39 7,34 3,93 3,67 3,6 3,3 3,354 3,45 8,433 8,877 9,537,83,393,765 Note: Chicken paws are excluded. November 3

26 Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov Production,795,946,95,,985, South Africa Foreign,483,685,76,89,794,84,535,57,59,67,63,73 5,8 5, 5,38 5,48 5,47 5,57 Dom. Consumption,8,9,885,95,935, South Africa Foreign,547,75,735,8,89,86,363,36,73,8,93,353 4,9 5, 5,8 5,3 5, 5,4 November 3

27 Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary, Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent) Nov Imports South Africa Foreign Exports South Africa Foreign November 3

28 Notes to Readers The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview. Data Modifications Prior to Cattle/Beef: The cattle PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 8- period due to official trade data revisions: Belarus The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 99- period on additional production data available: Azerbaijan, Costa Rica, Cote d Ivoire, Dominican Republic, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Iran, Israel, Jamaica, Jordon, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa, Vietnam The cattle and beef PSD series for the has been modified to account for Croatia and now represents the EU-8 covering the period 999 onward. Swine/Pork: The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 996- period due to additional trade or production data: Armenia, Cote d Ivoire, Georgia, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Macau, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. The swine PSD for is revised for due to official production data revisions. The swine and pork PSD series for the has been modified to account for Croatia and now represents the EU-8 covering the period 999 onward. Broiler Meat: The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period on additional production data available: Angola, Azerbaijan, Benin, Cuba, Congo (Brazzaville), Congo (Kinshasa), Georgia, Guatemala, Ghana Haiti, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan. Kuwait, Malaysia, Moldova, Qatar, South Africa, Taiwan, Turkey and Vietnam. The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 3- period on additional trade data available:, Congo (Brazzaville),, Japan and Oman. Turkey Meat: The turkey meat PSD for the following countries are revised for particular years during the - period on additional trade data available:. Assumptions BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of November 7, 3. Other Diseases (AI, HN, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks as of November 7, 3. November 3

29 Conversion Rates Beef &Veal Pork Conversion Rate.4.3 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: Frozen: Processed: & 65 Fresh/Chilled: 3, 3, 39 Frozen: 3, 3, 39 Processed:,, 9, 64, 64, 649 Broiler Meat Turkey Meat Conversion Rate HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 7., 7.3 Frozen: 7., 7.4 Processed: 6.3 Fresh/Chilled: 7.4, 7.6, 7.3, 7.34, 7.35 Frozen: 7.5, 7.7, 7.33, 7.36 Processed: 6.3 Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included. Technical Notes CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since July 3 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: PSD Online The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through Additional Resources Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA- Economic Research Service at: Future Releases and Contact Information Please visit to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in April 4. Questions may be directed to the following staff: Lesley Ahmed () 7-78 Lesley.Ahmed@fas.usda.gov Swine and Pork Claire Mezoughem () Claire.Mezoughem@fas.usda.gov Cattle and Beef Lazaro Sandoval () Lazaro.Sandoval@fas.usda.gov Poultry Meat November 3

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