BRAC's Contribution to Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh

Transcription

1 BRAC's Contribution to Gross Domestic Product of Bangladesh Debdulal Mallick Economist Research and Evaluation Division, BRAC August 20 Research Monograph Series No. 17 Research and Evaluation Division, BRAC, 75 Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. Fax: , Phones: , , (PABX)

2 ABSTRACT This paper estimates the contribution of BRAC programmes to the gross domestic product (GDP) of Bangladesh. BRAC's contribution to GDP of Bangladesh has been divided into four components. These are 1) Value added in BRAC as an organization in a given year, 2) Incremental value added in linked sectors due to input supply to BRAC in a given year, 3) Incremental value added in linked sectors attributed to loans disbursed by BRAC in a given year, and 4) Incremental value added in linked sectors attributed to nonfinancial development inputs (skill training, nonformal primary education, and health services) in a given year. BRAC contributed Tk. 8,215.3 million, Tk. 10,479.1 million, Tk. 13,558 million and Tk. 17,770.3 million to GDP of Bangladesh in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively. In 1995 BRAC's share to GDP was 0.7%, which increased to 1.15% in This shows that output of BRAC increased faster than GDP of Bangladesh. During the period output of BRAC increased, on average, at 29.1% annually. But estimating the contribution of education intervention was not possible due to lack of information on the sectoral wage differential of the BRAC graduates and those without any education. Therefore, the total output of BRAC is not fully captured in the present study. INTRODUCTION BRAC works for poverty alleviation and empowerment of the poor with special emphasis on women. BRAC views poverty in a holistic sense and regards it as a complex syndrome that requires extensive and innovative efforts to overcome. It tries to attain its objective through three major programmes, viz., Development Programme (RDP), Health, Nutrition and Population Programme (HNPP) and NonFormal Primary Education (NFPE). RDP covers all the 64 districts of Bangladesh with nearly 3.4 million borrowerhouseholds. BRAC is operating more than 34 thousand nonformal primary schools where children of poor households attend free of cost. Currently BRAC ' s health and population programme covers about 35 million people throughout the country. BRAC has several other programmes aimed to create income and employment opportunities for the poor and to support the vulnerable group. BRAC also has a number of income generating projects, profit of which is channelled to finance development works. 1

3 It has become a concern that whether such development interventions have impact on the macro economy of the country i.e., whether the standard macro variables like national income, savings, investment, employment are affected by NGO intervention. Contribution of some of the development interventions viz., credit and savings programme is observable while contribution of some other programmes viz., training, education, and health interventions is unobservable and difficult to estimate. Research on the above issues is almost nonexistent and also difficult to conduct mainly due to lack of an established methodology. Dr. Mohiuddin Alamgir pioneered such a study on the contribution of Grameen Bank to GDP 1 of Bangladesh. The study found that Grameen Bank contributed 1.1% of Bangladesh's GDP in 1996 (1). The present study which follows the same methodology employed by Dr. Alamgir, attempts to estimate the contribution of BRAC to GDP of Bangladesh. METHODOLOGY BRAC's contribution to GDP of Bangladesh, V b can be divided into four components. These are: First component (Direct): Value added in BRAC as an organization in a given year (V bi); Second component (Indirect): Incremental value added in linked sectors due to input supply to BRAC in a given year (V b2 ); Third component (Indirect): Incremental value added in linked sectors attributed to loans disbursed by BRAC in a given year (V b3 ); and Fourth component (Indirect): Incremental value added in linked sectors attributed to nonfinancial development inputs (skill training, nonformal primary education, and health services) in a given year (V b4). Therefore, V b = 4 Vbi i = 1 1 GDP is the value of final goods and services produced within the country (in a year). 2

4 First component Value added in BRAC in a given year is the sum of 1) wages and salaries paid by BRAC (Ybi), 2) net interest earned by BRAC (Yb2), 3) net profit earned by BRAC (Yb3) on nonloan activities, and 4) provision for depreciation (Yb4) during the period. Thus, V 4 b1 = Y bi i = 1 Second component Incremental value added in linked sectors due to input supply to BRAC in a given year is estimated by: V b2 Where, = [( aiib) vi] i Ib = Input supply to BRAC in a given year. ai = Input coefficient of sector (i). vi = Value added coefficient of sector (i). Third component Incremental value added in linked sectors attributed to loans disbursed by BRAC in a given year consists of four elements. Of these, three elements are from different uses of loan proceeds viz., i) capital investment of different types (K), ii) intermediate inputs purchase (I), and iii) wage payments (W). The fourth element is net profit of loanfinanced activities less income from alternative activities in the absence of BRAC loan (II). Vb3 = V(K)+V(I)+W+Π Where, V() = Incremental value added in supplying sectors due to loan proceeds in a given year. Therefore, total loan disbursed to sector (j), (C j) is the sum of 1) amount of investment in items supplied by different capital goods sectors out of loan disbursed to sector (j) in a given year (K j), 2) amount of intermediate input purchase out of loan disbursed to sector (j) in a given 3

5 year (I j), and 3) amount of wage payments out of loan disbursed to sector (j) in a given year (W j). C j=k j+i j +W j j = 1,, 9 The sectors are 1) Agriculture, 2) Fisheries, 3) Poultry and livestock, 4) Sericulture, 5) Cottage industry, 6) transport, 7) trading, 8) Food process, and 9) Housing. It is assumed that loanuse in sectors are distributed by a given coefficient c. This is given as follows: K j = c kj C j, I j = c Ij C j, and W j = c wj C j Or C j = c pjc j p = k, I and w p Where, c pj = Share of loan disbursed to sector (j) used for p th item. a) A number of steps have been followed to calculate total incremental value added due to increase in capital investment financed by loan proceeds to a receiving sector in a given year. First, the amount of purchase from each capital supplying sector has been estimated. Amount of capital purchased from sector (i) for sector (j) financed by loans (K ij) is estimated by K ij = k ijc kj Cj Where, k ij = Share of capital supplying sector (i) in the amount of capital investment in sector (j) out of loan proceeds. Second, each type of capital purchased by loan receiving sectors is added to estimate the total investment demand (D i) from each sector. D i = j k ijckjc j 4

6 Third, direct and indirect increases in output of all linked sectors due to increase in final demand of capital supplying sectors has been estimated through inputoutput inverse matrix. Q = [IA] 1 F Where, Q = output vector, [IA] 1 = Leontiff inverse matrix, and F = final demand vector. For sector (i), the estimated total output increase is given by X i = m Where, A midi Ami = the element of the inverse matrix showing output increase in linked sector (m) due to unit demand increase in D i. X i = total output increase due to increase in K in all sectors. To get value added in linked sector (i), X i has been multiplied by vector of sectoral value added coefficients (v i). Total value added V(K) is the sum of value added in all sectors. V(K) = X i ivi b) Incremental value added in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds to sector (j). V(Ij) is as follows: V(I j ) = i [(a ij ciicj)vi] Where, a ij = Input coefficient of sector (j) from sector (i). v i = Value added coefficient of sector (i) Therefore, incremental value added in sectors supplying intermediate inputs is estimated by: 5

7 V(I) = ( aijciic j ) vi j [ ] i (Secondary effects working through inputoutput relationship is ignored) c) Wage payments financed by loan disbursed to sector (j) create value added directly and this is given by the following: W j = c wj C j and W = j c wj C j d) Net profit from activities financed by loan proceeds of sector (j) less opportunity cost in a given year is estimated by: Π j = r j C j Y j and Π = ( r jcj Yj ) j Where, rj = Average return on investment in sector (i). Yj = Return from alternative activities. Fourth component a) Contribution of skill development training The potential earnings of the beneficiaries who received training from BRAC in year t 1 estimate the contribution of BRAC training to GDP in year t. Therefore, the contribution of BRAC's skill training, vt (s) is given by the excess of yt (s) over y o(s) less cost per trainee, Ct (capital and recurrent incurred by BRAC plus cost borne by the trainee). Thus, vt (s) = [yt (s) y0 (s)] Ct where, yt (s) = annual income in sectors of the beneficiary who received training from BRAC y 0(s) = annual income in sectors without any training A beneficiary can receive training for more than one sector and can be involved in the sectors in which she received training. A weighted 6

8 average of v t (s) has been taken as the unit value added of a beneficiary receiving training. v t = s a s v t (s) For a total number of N beneficiaries who received training and got themselves engaged in income earning activities, the contribution of BRAC training is estimated by V(T) = N v t b) Contribution of education intervention The potential wage earnings of the graduates of year t1 can estimate the contribution of education intervention of BRAC to GDP in year t. For example, if the BRAC school system produced only one graduate of level L (say primary) in year t 1 who joined the labour force in year t to earn an annual wage of wl(s) in sector s, then the contribution to GDP of BRAC's education intervention, vl(s) is given by excess of wl(s) over w o(s), wage in sectors without education less per student cost of education (capital and recurrent incurred by BRAC plus cost borne by the student), i.e., V 1 (s) = [w L (s) W 0 (s)] c L In calculating, wl(s) and w o(s), weighted average of male and female wage has been taken. Each level of graduate may be employed in more than one sector. A weighted average of vl(s) gives the unit value added of an L level graduate as shown below: v 1 = Σ s α s v 1 (s) For a total number of graduates of level L, NL, with labour force participation rate of 1 p and employment ratio of le, total contribution of education intervention of BRAC, V (E), is estimated by V (E) = Σ L N L v 11 P l e 7

9 c) Contribution of health intervention The contribution of BRAC's health intervention to GDP, V (H), is given by (a) value of the annual number of days saved (d 1) of working adults which would otherwise have been lost due to illness (V 1 = v 1 d 1), (b) value of the annual number of days saved (d 2) of working adults which would otherwise have been lost due to care of the sick (V 2 = v 2 d 2), and (c) incremental value added by health care beneficiaries due to improved health care (V 3), less total health care costs incurred by BRAC (C h). V 3 has been omitted since empirical work on the relationship between health and productivity is not firmly established in the Bangladesh context. Thus, V (H) = (V 1 + V 2 ) C h Where, V 1 = v 1 d 1 and V 2 = v 2 d 2 Sources of data Data on components of BRAC s direct contribution and input supply to BRAC have been collected from BRAC audit reports (24). Information on the amount of loan disbursed to different sectors and number of persons received skill training were collected from RDPMIS. Sectoral value added coefficients were taken from An InputOutput Table for Bangladesh Economy prepared by BIDS (5). The coefficients a, c, k, and v t (unit value added of a person receiving skill training) have been estimated based on Microenterprise Profiles contained in the ADB (7) and discussion with BRAC s RDP personnel. Income from alternative sources in the absence of BRAC loan was taken from a Grameen Bank study (1). Data on number of patients treated in the BRAC heath centres and cost per patient have been collected from BRAC s HNPP office. Value of the annual number of days saved of working adults which would otherwise have been lost due to illness was taken from a recent BRAC study (6). FINDINGS GDP is equal to total income earned domestically and is also equal to total spending. In this study some components of BRAC s contribution to GDP (net profit or net interest, for example) have been estimated based on income method while some others (value added in linked sectors due to input supply to BRAC or that due to loan disbursed by BRAC, for example) based on expenditure method. Findings on BRAC s contribution to GDP is presented in Table 1. 8

10 Table 1. Contribution of BRAC to GDP of Bangladesh Items Value added in BRAC Value added in linked sectors due to input supply to BRAC Value added in linked sectors due to BRAC loan ,492,504, ,840, ,948,726, ,306, Capital supplying sector 909,885,386 1,159,446, Input supplying sector Wage payment from loan Return on loanfinanced activities at 48% 1,093,348,9 443,307,937 1,770,692,509 1,570,855, ,761,252 2,450,528,763 Value added due to skill development training Value added due to health intervention 2,040,692,780 NA 2,252,037, ,419,458 Total contribution of BRAC to GDP of Bangladesh 8,215,271,330 10,479,081,692 Total GDP of Bangladesh (In million Tk.) 1,170,261 1,301,6 % contribution of BRAC to GDP of Bangladesh ,313,090, ,309,411 1,551,571,053 2,132,243, ,901,682 3,306,722,048 2,720,997,3 292,131,137 13,557,966,847 1,403, ,144,043, ,717,244 1,926,550,056 2,538,678, ,341,625 4,3,945,390 4,248,248, ,803,562 17,770,328,478 1,548,

11 BRAC contributed Tk. 8,215.3 million, Tk. 10,479.1 million, Tk. 13,558 million and Tk. 17,770.3 million to GDP of Bangladesh in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively. In 1995 BRAC s share to GDP was 0.7%, while it increased to 1.15% in This shows that output of BRAC increased faster than GDP of Bangladesh. During the period output of BRAC increased, on average, at 29.1% annually. It may be mentioned that the share of Grameen Bank to GDP of Bangladesh was estimated at 1.1% in 1996 (1) which increased at a slower rate than the GDP of the country. BRAC s direct contribution to the GDP was Tk. 1,492.5 million, Tk. 1,948.7 million, Tk. 2,313.1 million and Tk. 3,144 million in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively (Annex Table 1). Capital supplying sectors contributed Tk million, Tk. 1,159.4 million, Tk. 1,551.6 million and Tk. 1,926.6 million in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively (Annex Table 3 to 8). The contribution from input supplying sector was Tk. 1,093.3 million, Tk. 1,570.9 million, Tk. 2,132.2 million and Tk. 2,538.7 million respectively (Annex Table 3,4, and 9 through 11). Value added in linked sectors due to input supply to BRAC were Tk million, Tk million, Tk million and Tk million in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively (Annex Table 2). The annual weighted average return on loan financed activities is estimated to be 72%. Onethird of the above has been deducted to account for income from alternative sources in the absence of BRAC loan. Thus, the net rate of return was calculated at 48%. At this rate the return from loanfinanced activities is estimated at Tk. 1,770.7 million, Tk. 2,450.5 million, Tk. 3,306.7 million, and Tk. 4,3.9 million in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively (Annex Table 12). Weighted average of the difference in monthly income of those with and without BRAC s skill training is estimated to be Tk. 1,010. Average cost of training per person is Tk. 5. At this rate annual contribution of skill training is estimated at Tk. 2,040.7 million, Tk. 2,252 million, Tk. 2,721 million, and Tk. 4,248.2 million in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively (Number of persons received skill training and got themselves involved in income generating activities were 175,619, 193,807, 234,165 and 365,598 in 1995, 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively). Value of the annual number of days (8 hours a day) saved of working adults which would otherwise have been lost due to illness is estimated to be Tk Value of the annual number of days saved of 10

12 working adults which would otherwise have been lost due to care of the sick is estimated to be Tk (2 hours a day). At this rate value added due to BRAC s health intervention is estimated at Tk million, Tk million, and Tk million in 1996, 1997 and 1998 respectively (Annex Table 13). Estimating the contribution of BRAC s education programme was not possible since data on the sectoral wage differential of the BRAC graduate and those without any education was not available. LIMITATIONS The estimation of BRAC s contribution to GDP in the present study is not beyond criticism since the methodology is still in its preliminary stage. It is expected that further studies will improve both the methodology and the authenticity of the estimate. For more accurate estimation data quality needs to be improved. For example, all the sectors which supply input to BRAC and where BRAC disburses loan, need to be specified as much as possible. That will help calculate weighted average of the sectoral value added coefficient more accurately. An MIS system with all the programme information in detail is required. Some data such as the potential earnings of a beneficiary who received training from BRAC, was collected from BRAC programme. Such information would be more acceptable to the researchers and other people outside BRAC if that could be known from past research. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author is grateful to Dr. Mohiuddin Alamgir, Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome, Italy for his suggestions on the methodology and comments on the earlier drafts. Sincere thanks are also due to Mr. Bazle Mustafa Razee of FIVDB for valuable suggestions on the methodology. Dr. AMR Chowdhury, Director Research deserves special thanks for encouraging me to conduct the study. Mr. Hasan Shareef Ahmed is also acknowledged for editing the report. REFERENCE 1. Alamgir M. Contribution of Grameen Bank to gross domestic product of Bangladesh: preliminary estimates, Dhaka: Grameen Trust, p. 2. BRAC financial statements December 31, 1998 together with independent auditors' report. Dubai: Arthur Anderson & Co. and Dhaka: ACNABIN & Co p. 11

13 3. BRAC financial statements December 31, 1997 together with independent auditors' report. Dubai: Arthur Anderson & Co. and Dhaka: ACNABIN & Co p. 4. BRAC auditors' report and financial statements for the year ended December 31, Dubai: Arthur Anderson & Co. and Dhaka: ACNABIN & Co p. 5. GoB & BIDS. An inputoutput table for Bangladesh economy May Tudor MJ, Mallick D. NGOs and village impacts: a case study in Badhair union, Dhaka: BRAC, p. 7. Uniconsult International Limited. Preparation report for the rural livelihood project in Bangladesh (Technical assistance number 2293BAN), Dhaka:

14 Table 1. Direct Contribution of BRAC to GDP of Bangladesh (Taka) Item Wages and salaries Net interest Net profit Provision for depreciation Total 835,216, ,933, ,259,305 49,094,3 1,492,504, ,338, ,590, ,920,934 78,876,236 1,948,726,219 1,158,407, ,094,1 164,964, ,624,930 2,313,090,986 Table 1a. Calculation of net interest Item Interest income Loan to VO members ,418, ,708, ,359,541 Bank accounts, fixed deposits and PSPs 52,763,110 59,470, ,107,047 Project/companies Subtotal (a) 39,178, ,360,612 20,461, ,640, ,466,588 Interest expenses Deposit of VO members Long term loans Bank overdraft interest and charges 28,123,936 41,573,309 3,729,719 48,531,602 35,702,635 6,815,890 71,853,236 24,415,704 7,103,548 Subtotal (b) 73,426,964 71,050, ,372,488 Net interest (ab) 408,933, ,590, ,094,1 Annex ,409,784,188 1,184,840, ,252, ,166,654 3,144,043, ,237,919, ,231,348 1,369,150,653 1,803,842 55,203,679 28,302, ,310,520 1,184,840,133 13

15 Table 1b. Calculation of net profit Item a) Revenue from sales of commercial ventures b) Cost of sales of commercial ventures c) Income from investment in related companies 526,124, ,934,340 6,875,0 557,918, ,577,212 3,750,0 643,303, ,786,704 3,249,987 d) Other income* e) Loss on investment Net profit (ab+c+de) 57,193, ,259,305 66,829, ,920, ,912, ,714, ,964,943 * Include service charges, sectoral income, rental income, gain on sale of assets and others. Table 2.1. Value added in linked sectors due to Input Supply to BRAC (Taka) Expenses Travelling and transport Sector Transport service Input supply (1995) 98,936,459 Input supply (1996) 108,127,135 Value added coefficient Value added (1995) 65,545,404 Training Professional service 196,552, ,551, ,604,995 School rent and maintenance Stationary, rent and utilities building Printing and publishing 61,536,694 85,390,870 66,078, ,154, ,162,067 36,683,918 Maintenance and general expenses Communication 38,366,079 42,033, ,544,590 Programme supplies Printing and publishing 420,983, ,041, ,854,501 Publicity, advertisement and sales commission Bank charges Professional service Banking and insurance 3,729,719 6,815, ,445,204 Total 464,840, ,403, ,340,412 11,539, ,821,797 10,172, ,252,453 Value added (1996) 71,634,227 84,532,382 37,757,429 51,618,330 34,559, ,735,482 4,468, ,306,268 14

16 Table 2.2. Value added in linked sectors due to Input Supply to BRAC (Taka) Expenses Sector Input supply (1997) Input supply (1998) Travelling and transport Transport service 108,127, ,352,866 Training School rent and maintenance Stationary, rent and utilities Maintenance and general expenses Programme supplies Publicity, advertisement and sales commission Bank charges Total Professional service building Printing and publishing Communication Printing and publishing Professional service Banking and insurance 147,551,723 66,078, ,154,399 42,033, ,041,624 6,815, ,360,413 82,529, ,189,798 78,996, ,228,404 15,386,265 28,302,999 Table 3. Percentage allocation of loan to various sectors by use (capital, intermediate inputs and labour) Sector Agriculture Capital 30 % allocation Intermediate inputs 51 Labour 19 Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Cottage industry transport trading Food processing Housing Value added coefficient Value added (1997) 98,883, ,5,653 44,5,363 61,425,510 42,522, ,528,979 2,281,094 4,657, ,309,411 Value added (1998) 127,433, ,963,181 47,157,269 69,247,137 64,950, ,594,922 8,814,791 18,555, ,717,244 15

17 Table 4.1. Allocation of loan to various sectors by use (Taka) Sector 1995 Capital Intermediate inputs Labour Agriculture 135,549, ,433,598 85,847,811 Fisheries 53,959,463 51,119,491 36,919,632 Poultry and livestock 218,621, ,414,773 87,448,427 Sericulture 29,148,543 12,954,908 11,875,332 Cottage industry 8,567,982 37,699,123 10,852,778 transport 82,550,790 18,344,620 30,137,590 trading 201,602, ,412,935 63,0,819 Food processing 116,684, ,361, ,202,313 Housing 63,209,115 7,023,235 Table 4.2. Allocation of loan to various sectors by use (Taka) Sector Agriculture Capital 193,053, Intermediate inputs 328,191,634 Labour 122,267,472 Fisheries 118,996, ,733,640 81,418,740 Poultry and livestock 390,325,285 1,014,845, ,130,114 Sericulture 7,329,420 3,257,520 2,986,060 Cottage industry transport trading 9,338, ,653,5 516,104,912 41,091,270 25,922,890 2,548,268,3 11,829,305 42,587, ,282,785 Food processing 149,041, ,206, ,761,601 Housing 50,742,0 5,638,0 Capital 172,992,648 81,908, ,620,413 6,758,289 8,855, ,866, ,126, ,996,997 31,334,850 Capital 357,040, ,356, ,176,350 8,462,880 6,831,675 91,718, ,878, ,460,410 82,652, Intermediate inputs 294,087,502 77,597, ,613,073 3,3,684 38,963,476 23,525,791 1,792,935, ,322, Intermediate inputs 606,968, ,969,240 1,110,658,510 3,761,280 30,059,370 20,381,830 3,045,838, ,995,925 Labour 109,562,010 56,042,376 1,248,165 2,753,377 11,216,758 38,649, ,476, ,330,497 3,481,650 Labour 226,125, ,033, ,870,540 3,447,840 8,653,455 33,484, ,774, ,768,165 9,183,615 16

18 Table 5. Percentage allocation of loan financed capital expenses by supplying sector Capital supplying sector Wooden furniture Metal products Machinery Transport equipment building Other construction Agriculture Poultry and livestock Sericulture 22 transport trading Food processing Housing Fisheries % allocation of capital Cottage industry Table 6.1. Allocation of loanfinanced capital expenses by supplying sector (Taka) 1995 Capital supplying sector Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Capital expenses (Taka) Cottage industry transport trading Food processing Housing Total Wooden furniture 6,412, ,399 12,382,619 24,192,314 14,2,176 35,397,104 92,815,292 Metal products 9,488,442 9,173, ,759 42,926,411 76,608,996 9,334,784 27,812, ,943,511 Machinery 69,130,079 6,425,987 27,241, ,797,827 Transport equipment 1,618,784 1,618,784 Building 163,965,8 13,991,301 1,113,838 1,801,310 93,347, ,220,090 Other construction 56,930,654 43,167,570 54,655,267 8,744, ,498,053 17

19 Table 6.2. Allocation of loanfinanced capital expenses by supplying sector (Taka) 1996 Capital supplying sector Wooden furniture Metal products Agriculture 12,109,485 Fisheries 13,924,375 Poultry and livestock Sericulture 1,486,824 Capital expenses (Taka) Cottage industry 442, ,874 transport 15,879,909 55,050,351 Machinery 88,226,250 6,641,502 34,935,8 Transport equipment Building 2,457, ,965,310 3,243,979 1,151,194 Other construction 72,656,912 6,552, ,655,103 2,027,487 Table 6.3. Allocation of loanfinanced capital expenses by supplying sector (Taka) 1997 Capital supplying sector Wooden furniture Metal products Agriculture 13,513,773 Fisheries 20,229,425 Poultry and livestock Sericulture 1,612,472 Capital expenses (Taka) Cottage industry 466, ,725 transport 17,497,951 60,659,563 Machinery 98,457,490 7,4,194 38,495,492 Transport equipment Building 3,569, ,743,963 3,518,122 1,214,060 Other construction 81,082,639 95,197,296 97,581,321 2,198,826 trading 43,575, ,987, ,563,046 trading 61,932,589 19,611, ,805,2456 Food processing 16,559,640 11,039, ,397,598 Food processing 1,788,54 11,923,336 11,923,3357 Housing 17,547,516 13,787,334 Housing 28,415,520 22,326,480 Total 95,491, ,519, ,803,552 2,457, ,321, ,865,972 Total 127,810, ,426, ,957,176 3,569, ,761, ,060,082 18

20 Table 6.4. Allocation of loanfinanced capital expenses by supplying sector (Taka) 1998 Capital supplying sector Wooden furniture Metal products Agriculture 24,992,834 Fisheries 33,550,591 Poultry and livestock Sericulture 1,861,834 Capital expenses (Taka) Cottage industry 341, ,217 transport 13,757,735 47,693,482 Machinery 182,090,647 5,123,756 30,267,018 Transport equipment 5,920,693 Building 320,382,263 4,062, ,118 Other construction 149,957,4 157,885, ,794,088 2,538,864 trading 74,025, ,413, ,439,352 Food processing 16,615,249 11,076, ,768,328 Housing 46,285,420 36,367,115 Total 152,887, ,572, ,481,421 5,920, ,540, ,175,091 19

21 Table 7. Leontiff inverse matrix for Bangladesh economy Sectors Paddy Wheat Other grains Jute Sugarcane Potato Vegetables Pulses Oilseeds Fruits Cotton Tobacco Tea Major species Other crops Livestock Poultry Shrimp Other fish Forestry Rice milling Ata and flour milling Fish and sea food processing Edible oil Sugar and gur [Table 7 continued...] Wooden Furniture Fabricated Metal products Machinery Transport equipment building Other construction

22 [...Table 7 continued] Sectors Tea (processing and blending) Salt Other food Tanning and leather finishing Leather products Jute bailing Jute textile Yarn Mill cloth Handloom cloth Dyeing and bleaching Readymade garments Knitting and hosiery Other textiles Cigarettes Bidi Saw and planning mills Wooden furniture Pulp, paper and board Printing and publishing Drugs and pharmaceuticals [Table 7 continued...] Wooden Furniture Fabricated Metal products Machinery Transport equipment building Other construction

23 [...Table 7 continued] Sectors Fertilizer Other chemicals Petroleum products Pottery and earthenware China and ceramic Glass and glass products Brick, tiles and clay products Cement Iron and steel basic industry Fabricated metal products Machinery Transport equipment Miscellaneous industries Urban building building Construction: Electricity and gas Construction: road [Table 7 continued...] Wooden Furniture Fabricated Metal products Machinery Transport equipment building Other construction

24 [...Table 7 continued] Sectors Construction: other transport Other construction Electricity Gas Mining and quarrying Trade service Transport service Housing service Health service Education service Public administration and defence Banking and insurance Professing services Hotels and restaurants Communications Other services Total Wooden Furniture Fabricated Metal products Machinery Transport equipment building Other construction

25 Table 8. Value added in linked sectors due to increase in capital expenses by loan receiving sectors (Taka) Sectors Total output in different years Value added in different years Paddy Wheat Other grains Jute Sugarcane Potato Vegetables Pulses Oilseeds Fruits Cotton Tobacco Tea Major species Other crops Livestock Poultry Shrimp Other fish Forestry Rice milling Ata and flour milling Fish and sea food processing Edible oil Sugar and gur Tea (processing & blending) [Table 8 continued...] , ,188 3,2 592, ,830 9,7 19,052 37, ,948 7, ,455 1,923 2,629 61,120 62, ,851 84,338 6,710 55,586 88,565,422 52, , , ,668 8, , ,347 3, , ,155 12,324 24,257 48, ,891 9, ,107 2,399 3,339 77,652 78, , ,367 8,537 70, ,860,861 66,515 1,7, , ,555 11, ,547 1,042,943 4,980 1,025, ,148 15,979 31,430 63, ,568 12, ,110 3,204 4, , , , ,693 11,019 91, ,139,649 86,880 1,330,828 1,226,356 1,082,363 14, ,558 1,339,361 6,587 1,210, ,511 21,461 42,204 83,183 1,016,046 16,383 1,237,763 4,383 5, , ,456 1,090, ,840 14, , ,285, ,689 1,711,565 1,592,514 1,385,766 19,358 Value added coefficient , ,356 1, , ,704 5,170 9,574 2, ,139 4, , ,693 36,336 31, ,319 37,345 3,106 26,837 38,756,228 7, , , ,160 3, , ,841 2, , ,708 6,569 12,189 29, ,525 6, ,851 1,098 2,151 46,164 39, ,299 47,542 3,952 34,188 47,637,513 10, , , ,132 4, , ,417 3, , ,738 8,517 15,793 38, ,890 8, ,375 1,466 2,774 60,563 53, ,221 61,856 5,1 44,269 65,263,510 13, , , ,174 5, , ,157 4, , ,525 11,439 21,208 51, ,798 10, ,877 2,6 3,763 79,178 76, ,096 82,290 6,918 59,539 74,954,713 17, , , ,490 7,339 24

26 [...Table 8 continued] Sectors Salt Other food Tanning and leather finishing Leather products Jute bailing Jute textile Yarn Mill cloth Handloom cloth Dyeing and bleaching Readymade garments Knitting and hosiery Other textiles Cigarettes Bidi Saw and planning mills Wooden furniture Pulp, paper and board Printing and publishing Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer [Table 8 continued...] ,040,575 3,392,340 Total output in different years ,313,059 4,3, ,760,660 5,718,702 17,783 22,672 30,051 42, ,923 1,2,468 1,669, , ,081 1,257,577 2,093, ,136 1,156,357 1,643,819 2,732, ,574 12,903 9,621 16,197 12,657 21,716 51,395,894 53,339,594 71,333,676 93,760,979 96,642, ,353,546 24,458,745 27,682,408 36,541,214 17,420,089 21,607,071 27,964, , , , , , , ,159,127 7,252,091 38,467 91,366 1,450,683 2,193,019 3,641,449 1,247 16,341 29,177 85,692, ,841,390 46,033,218 37,181,758 1,304, ,441 Value added coefficient , ,970 Value added in different years ,167,309 1,139, ,565,227 1,515,456 2,059 2,625 3,480 12, , , , , , , , , , , , ,668 6,146 3,390 7,715 4,459 10,343 21,694,207 22,514,642 30,109,944 20,749,305 21,386,916 28,625,940 6,540,268 7,402,276 9,771,121 7,483,670 9,282,398 12,013, , , ,843 27,053 34,218 45, ,919,464 1,921,804 4,455 27, , ,150 1,024, ,757 13,897 36,170,627 34,266,4 12,309,282 15,973, ,062 58,221 25

27 [...Table 8 continued] Sectors Other chemicals Petroleum products Pottery and earthenware China and ceramic Glass and glass products Brick, tiles and clay products Cement Iron and steel basic industry Fabricated metal products Machinery Transport equipment Miscellaneous industries Urban building building Construction: Electricity and gas Construction: road Construction: Other transport [...Table 8 continued] ,034,721 Total output in different years ,280, ,048,439 21,623,546 27,191,926 35,880,343 5,438 6,886 9,139 24,468 30,938 40,095 10,012,684 12,608,6 15,565,610 19,598,824 25,331,483 35,068,124 15,838,590 20,363,719 27,902, ,356, ,648, ,723, ,336, ,982, ,828, ,434, ,014, ,240,188 12,841,479 16,769,581 22,291,390 23,413,974 29,360,630 38,921,563 22,130, ,246,218 27,905, ,838,938 36,060, ,099,180 10,597 13,016 17,844 29,703 34,674 46, ,940,280 45,869,755 11,678 54,231 22,776,663 40,106,545 33,397, ,117, ,209, ,295,676 30,7,343 50,770,131 48,391, ,698,283 20,467 57,395 Value added coefficient ,854,791 Value added in different years ,105, ,382,934 9,248,391 11,629,987 15,346,023 2,108 2,669 3,542 7,468 9,442 12,237 4,279,421 5,388,916 6,652,742 9,479,951 12,252,838 16,962,452 3,435,384 4,416,891 6,052,024 1,064, ,696, ,479,352 89,520, ,891, ,966,286 49,211,573 61,926,303 76,243,931 6,930,546 9,050,543 12,030,663 11,030,323 13,831,793 18,335,948 8,989, ,415,689 11,335, ,179,769 14,647, ,465,872 4,464 5,482 7,516 9,746 11,377 15, ,345,992 19,618,494 4,526 16,551 9,734,746 19,399,536 7,243, ,706, ,469, ,221,818 16,568,975 23,917,809 19,656, ,806,199 8,621 18,831 26

28 [...Table 8 continued] Sectors Other constructions Electricity Gas Mining and quarrying Trade service Transport service Housing service Health service Education service Public administration and defence Banking and insurance Professing services Hotels and restaurants Communications Other services Total ,716,508 23,06,782 16,223,540 31,378, ,483,299 62,748,579 7,221, ,093 1,075,152 Total output in different years ,145,949 26,252,256 20,954,3 40,586, ,119,293 79,565,582 9,104,055 1,219,268 1,386, ,427,553 38,255,655 27,376,222 54,501, ,413, ,040,510 12,184,757 1,578,360 1,783,275 17,366,895 21,816,832 29,245,793 3,947, ,392,018 64,716,512 13,326,872 16,595,644 22,442, , ,292 1,291,307 11,359,252 2,662,513 14,363,640 3,360,665 18,365,982 4,494,281 2,415,775,180 3,068,631,490 4,069,336, ,648,083 49,501,983 35,532,939 67,391, ,501, ,858,856 15,351,987 2,099,236 2,411,346 40,740,492 87,524,171 33,399,381 1,737,187 25,280,156 5,696,954 5,197,214,068 Value added coefficient Value added in different years ,184,7 42,416,874 57,718,073 15,46,288 19,634,114 25,677,195 14,597,942 18,854,679 24,633,124 15,868,106 20,524,376 27,561,290 97,454, ,967, ,908,398 41,570,934 52,712,198 70,251,838 5,442,468 6,860,816 9,182, , , , , ,342 1,252,929 11,715,707 14,717,635 19,729,212 25,878,152 3,307,7 42,428,145 7,634,965 9,507,644 12,857, , ,061 4,176 9,339,577 2,370,169 11,809,785 2,991,664 15,1,510 4,0, ,885,386 1,159,446,867 1,551,571, ,204,920 33,225,731 31,972,539 34,080, ,141,687 88,681,492 11,569,258 1,090,553 1,694,211 27,483,536 57,380,847 19,134, ,354 20,785,345 5,071,428 1,926,550,056 27

29 Table 9. Loan in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds (%) Input supplying sectors Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Paddy Wheat Other grain Vegetables Pulses Fruits Major spices Edible oil Tobacco Bidi/cigarettes Livestock Poultry Other fish Forestry Ata and flour milling Sugar and gur Salt Other food Mill cloth Yarn Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer Other chemicals Petroleum products Transport equipment [...Table 9 continued] Cottage industry transport 75 trading Food processing

30 ...Table 9 continued] Input supplying sectors Machinery Miscellaneous industries Other construction Electricity Trade service Transport service Other service Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock 5 2 Sericulture 5 55 Cottage industry 3 transport 25 trading Food processing 29

31 Table Loan in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds (Taka) 1995 Input supplying sectors Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Cottage industry transport Paddy Wheat Other grain Vegetables Pulses Fruits Major spices Edible oil Tobacco Bidi/cigarettes Livestock Poultry Other fish Forestry Ata and flour milling Sugar and gur Salt Other food Mill cloth Yarn Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer Other chemicals [Table 10.1 continued...] 39,173,712 52,999,728 2,304,336 34,565,040 16,130,352 23,3,771 5,111,949 20,447,796 2,555,975 39,789,034 45,473, ,365, ,682,955 56,841,477 45,473,182 2,590,982 2,590,982 5,654,868 25,635,403 3,769,912 1,507,965 trading 298,623,881 99,541,294 29,862,388 29,862,388 39,816,517 59,724,776 39,816,517 59,724,776 19,908,259 59,724,776 19,908,259 39,916,517 99,541,294 9,954 99,541,294 19,908,259 59,724,776 Food processing 337,089,428 21,068,089 63,204,268 30

32 [...Table 10.1 continued] Input supplying sectors Petroleum products Transport equipment Machinery Miscellaneous industries Other construction Electricity Trade service Transport service Other service Agriculture 4,608,672 2,304,336 2,304,336 2,304,336 62,217,071 11,521,680 Fisheries Poultry and livestock 28,420,739 11,368,295 Sericulture 647,745 7,125,199 Cottage industry 1,130,974 transport 13,758,465 4,586,155 trading Food processing 31

33 Table Loan in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds (Taka) 1996 Input supplying sectors Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Cottage industry transport Paddy Wheat Other grain Vegetables Pulses Fruits Major spices Edible oil Tobacco Bidi/cigarettes Livestock Poultry Other fish Forestry Ata and flour milling Sugar and gur Salt Other food Mill cloth Yarn Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer Other chemicals [Table 10.2 continued...] 49,994,875 67,640,125 2,940,875 44,113,125 20,586,125 34,918,711 7,759,714 31,038,854 3,879,857 45,612,915 52,129, ,645, ,322,615 65,161,307 52,129,046 6,737 6,737 5,844,521 26,495,164 3,896,347 1,558,539 trading 537,880, ,293,508 53,788,052 53,788,052 71,717, ,576,105 71,717, ,576,105 35,858, ,576,105 35,858,702 71,717,403 17,929,351 17,929,351 17,293,508 35,858, ,576,105 Food processing 398,657,992 24,916,125 74,748,374 32

34 [...Table 10.2 continued] Input supplying sectors Petroleum products Transport equipment Machinery Miscellaneous industries Other construction Electricity Trade service Transport service Other service Agriculture 5,881,750 2,940,875 2,940,875 2,940,875 79,403,652 14,704,375 Fisheries Poultry and livestock 32,580,654 13,032,261 Sericulture 150,184 1,652,026 Cottage industry 1,168,904 transport 17,644,343 trading Food processing 33

35 Table Loan in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds (Taka) 1997 Input supplying sectors Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Cottage industry transport Paddy Wheat Other grain Vegetables Pulses Fruits Major spices Edible oil Tobacco Bidi/cigarettes Livestock Poultry Other fish Forestry Ata and flour milling Sugar and gur Salt Other food Mill cloth Yarn Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer Other chemicals [Table 10.3 continued...] 55,792,578 75,484,076 3,281,916 49,228,745 22,973,414 50,730,138 11,273,364 45,093,456 5,636,682 71,039,202 81,187, ,938, ,969, ,484,574 81,187, , ,504 6,163,691 27,942,064 4,109,127 1,643,651 trading 764,480, ,826,8 76,448,040 76,448, ,930, ,896, ,930, ,896,080 50,965, ,896,080 50,965, ,930,720 25,482,680 25,482, ,826,8 50,965, ,896,080 Food processing 430,564,898 26,910,306 80,730,918 34

36 [...Table 10.3 continued] Input supplying sectors Petroleum products Transport equipment Machinery Miscellaneous industries Other construction Electricity Trade service Transport service Other service Agriculture 6,563,833 3,281,916 3,281,916 3,281,916 88,611,741 16,409,582 Fisheries Poultry and livestock 50,742,287 20,296,915 Sericulture 162,876 1,791,636 Cottage industry 1,232,738 transport 19,442,168 6,480,723 trading Food processing 35

37 Table Loan in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds (Taka) 1998 Input supplying sectors Agriculture Fisheries Poultry and livestock Sericulture Cottage industry transport Paddy Wheat Other grain Vegetables Pulses Fruits Major spices Edible oil Tobacco Bidi/cigarettes Livestock Poultry Other fish Forestry Ata and flour milling Sugar and gur Salt Other food Mill cloth Yarn Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer Other chemicals [Table 10.4 continued...] 103,184,7 139,602,830 6,069,688 91,045,324 42,487,818 84,136,158 18,696,924 74,787,696 9,348,462 77,746,096 88,852, ,263, ,131, ,065,851 88,852, , ,256 5,844,521 20,440,372 3,5,937 1,202,375 60,916, ,750,316 trading 913,51, ,583,860 91,375,158 91,375, ,833, ,750, ,833, ,750,316 60,916, ,750,316 60,916, ,833,544 30,458,386 30,458, ,583,860 Food processing 399,996,740 24,999,796 36

38 [...Table 10.4 continued] Input supplying sectors Petroleum products Transport equipment Machinery Miscellaneous industries Other construction Electricity Trade service Transport service Other service Agriculture 12,139,376 6,069,688 6,069,688 3,069, ,881,583 30,348,441 Fisheries Poultry and livestock 55,532,926 22,213,170 Sericulture 188,064 2,068,704 Cottage industry 901,781 transport 15,286,373 5,095,458 trading Food processing 37

39 Table 11. Value added in sectors supplying intermediate inputs financed by loan proceeds (Taka) Input supplying Total input supply Value sectors added 1995 coefficient Paddy Wheat Other grain Vegetables Pulses Fruits Major spices Edible oil Tobacco Bidi/cigarettes Livestock Poultry Other fish Forestry Ata and flour milling Sugar and gur Salt Other food Mill cloth Yarn Drugs and pharmaceuticals Fertilizer Other chemicals Petroleum products [Table 11 continued...] 680,541,889 39,789,034 45,473,182 99,541,294 29,862,388 50,930,477 39,816,517 59,724,776 39,816,517 59,724,776 3,273, ,407,731 42,912,030 65,451,920 56,841,477 73,158,397 9,954,129 99,541,294 3,769,912 6,619,914 67,685, ,328,594 21,277,309 4,608, ,377,912 45,612,915 52,129, ,293,508 53,788,052 78,704,177 71,717, ,576,105 71,717, ,576, ,144, ,898,720 70,777,413 98,212,567 65,161,307 92,677,725 17,929, ,293,508 3,896,347 9,318,253 90,928, ,328,821 25,066,719 5,881, ,71,568 71,039,202 81,187, ,826,8 76,448, ,358, ,930, ,896, ,930, ,896, ,387, ,865, ,695, ,872, ,484, ,213,598 25,482, ,826,8 4,109,127 12,917, ,434, ,869,785 29,261,6 6,563,833 1,421,441,925 77,746,096 88,852, ,583,860 91,375, ,374, ,833, ,750, ,833, ,750, ,786,6 404,882, ,052, ,273, ,065, ,457,775 30,458, ,583, ,899, ,839, ,335,592 52,588,536 12,139, ,528,630 16,878,508 28,479,854 50,019,5 18,389,259 33,975,721 23,670,919 12,177,882 18,220,038 31,206, ,493,658 76,784,943 20,717,928 28,641,760 12,397,126 14,543,889 8,849,221 26,378,443 1,060,853 1,678,810 21,801,589 14,337,554 4,1,137 1,971,129 Value added ,227,669 19,348,998 32,648,421 90,094,987 33,122,682 52,503,556 42,635,996 21,934,767 32,817,883 56,208, ,993, ,341,553 34,171,335 42,977,819 14,211,681 18,424,331 15,939,193 47,512,779 1,096,432 2,363, ,082,658 30,134,829 50,847, ,050,467 47,076,703 68, ,597,813 31,175,510 46,643,497 79,888, ,237, ,577,122 49,098,586 56,832,330 2,133,785 21,115,263 22,654,102 67,529,102 1,156,308 3,275,755 29,288,109 43,623,592 22,402,781 4,830,357 2,515,624 30,289,687 5,638,710 2,807, ,097,310 32,979,894 55,648, ,053,390 56,268,822 77,633,732 72,430,042 37,262,789 55,751,030 95,487, ,190, ,281,758 70,031,555 62,259,066 24,223,462 20,965,6 27,077,505 80,714, ,871 5,046,462 50,195,787 42,688,809 10,133,811 5,192,011 38