Do recent West African rainfall variations really impact the livestock in the Sahel?
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1 Do recent West African rainfall variations really impact the livestock in the Sahel? Pierre OZER Department of Environmental Sciences and Management University of Liege, Arlon, Belgium be.troplive Symposium, Brussels, 14 November 2013 Pastoralism: where does it go in an ever changing context?
2 Sahel : Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger 150 mm 700 mm Hyper-arid: Desert Arid/Semiarid: Sahel Dry subhumid: Soudanese
3 Pluviométrie annuelle (mm) Recent rainfall variations in the Sahel Pluviométrie annuelle Moyenne centrée [9 ans] Moyenne Moyenne Moyenne Moyenne Ozer et al, in press
4 Impacts of the drought of the early 1980 s in the Sahel
5 Spatial extent of the rainfall shortages of the 1970 s and 1980 s in Niger Ozer & Erpicum, 1995
6 Spatial extent of recent rainfall changes in the Sahel ( ) Lebel & Ali, 2009
7 Jours BUT: Number of rainfall days in Niger ( ) JOURS DE PLUIE -3,0% / 10 ans (**) Années Ozer & Ozer, 2005
8 BUT: Number of extreme rainfall days in Niamey ( ) Jours 4 3 JOURS DE PLUIE > 99e PERCENTILE +36,6% / 10 ans (*) Années Ozer & Ozer, 2005
9 BUT: Number of extreme rainfall days in Niamey ( ) Jours 4 3 JOURS DE PLUIE > 99e PERCENTILE +36,6% / 10 ans (*) 2 1 Very likely a result of climate change Années
10 BUT: Rainfall trends in Niger Hountondji, Nicolas, Sokpon, Ozer, 2005
11 BUT: NDVI trends in Niger Hountondji, Nicolas, Sokpon, Ozer, 2005
12 BUT: Rainfall Use Efficiency (RUE) trends in Niger Hountondji, Nicolas, Sokpon, Ozer, 2005
13 BUT: Rainfall Use Efficiency (RUE) trends in Burkina Faso Hountondji, Sokpon, Ozer, 2006
14 What s next? End of 21st century compared to Held et al., 2006
15 What s next? End of 21st century compared to Held et al., 2006
16 What s next? Held et al., 2006
17 What s next? Held et al., 2006
18 Population (millions) We have (likely, 66% to 90% of chance) a serious problem 200 Human population in the Sahel Population Projections : +3.1%/yr : +2.1%/yr Data: FAO, 2013
19 Heads (million) The livestock in the Sahel? 35 Sahel - Cattle (heads) Data: FAO, 2013
20 % The livestock in the Sahel? 15 Cattle - year to year % evolution in the Sahel Data: FAO, 2013
21 The livestock in the Sahel?
22 The livestock in the Sahel? Eastern Niger, ~ mm UNIVERSITE DE LIEGE
23 The livestock in the Sahel? Data: FAO, 2013
24 Is this correct? Data: FAO, 2013
25 Is this correct? Data: FAO, 2013
26 Niger: drought of 2005 «the effect of the severe drought on the livestock has been devastating»
27 Niger: drought of 2005 «the effect of the severe drought on the livestock has been devastating»
28 Niger: drought of 2005 «the effect of the severe drought on the livestock has been devastating» Niger: Cattle in 2005 vs 2004: + 6 % (406,250 heads)
29 Niger: drought of 2010
30 Niger: drought of 2010
31 Niger: drought of 2010 «The drought threatens almost 70 % of herds (Red Cross)» «It could take up to 10 years to rebuild the losses in livestock. Next year, people will not be able to survive off their livestock (Niger Association for the Revival of Breeding)»
32 Niger: drought of 2010 «The drought threatens almost 70 % of herds (Red Cross)» «It could take up to 10 years to rebuild the losses in livestock. Next year, people will not be able to survive off their livestock (Niger Association for the Revival of Breeding)» Niger: Cattle in 2010 vs 2009: + 6 % (555,698 heads)
33 Is this correct? Data: FAO, 2013
34 Is this correct? Data: FAO, 2013
35 Is this correct? Data: FAO, 2013
36 References FAO, FAOSTAT, FAO Statistical Databases. last access: November 14, Held, IM, Delworth, TL, Lu, J, Findell, KL, & Knutson, TR. (2005). Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. PNAS, 102, Hountondji, Y, Nicolas, J, Sokpon, N, & Ozer, P. (2005). Mise en évidence de la résilience de la végétation sahélienne par télédétection basse résolution au Niger à la suite d épisodes de sécheresse. Belgeo, 2005(4), Hountondji, Y, Sokpon, N, & Ozer, P. (2006). Analysis of the vegetation trends using low resolution remote sensing data in Burkina Faso ( ) for the monitoring of desertification. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27(5-6), IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007: synthesis report. In: Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III To the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, Eds., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. Lebel, T, & Ali, A. (2009). Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime ( ). Journal of Hydrology, 375, Ozer, P, & Erpicum, M. (1995). Méthodologie pour une meilleure représentation spatio-temporelle des fluctuations pluviométriques observées au Niger depuis Sciences et changements planétaires / Sécheresse, 6(1), Ozer, A, & Ozer, P. (2005). Désertification au Sahel : Crise climatique ou anthropique? Bulletin des Séances de l Académie Royale des Sciences d Outre-Mer = Mededelingen der Zittingen van de Koninklijke Academie voor Overzeese Wetenschappen, 51(4),
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