IN CANADA 2017 GROWING SEASON Canadian Wheat Crop in Review

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1 The 2017 growing season in Canada was diverse across the country, including in the prairie region. Most of the Prairies experienced dry and hot temperatures, causing yield declines in some areas. This year s growing season was ideal for good quality but yields for spring wheat were below the previous two years and below average for durum wheat as the durum growing region was the most impacted by the dry conditions. Precipitation Percentiles April 1, 2017 to October 22, Canadian Wheat Crop in Review

2 Number of Days with Temperature above 30 C April 1, 2017 to October 2, 2017 April 1, 2017 to October 2, 2017 Canadian Major Crop Seeded Area Since 2000, there has been a significant increase in canola hectares. Recently this increase has been augmented by growth in pulse crops like peas and lentils. The growth in canola and pulse crops has impacted cereal production, with wheat showing a slight downward trend since 2000 and barley hectares off significantly. In the last three years hectares seeded for Western Canada s two major crops canola and wheat have seen a continuation of the longer-term trends with slight declines in wheat hectares and increases in canola. This is the first year that there was more canola seeded than wheat. In 2017 wheat was seeded on more than 9 million hectares; however, this total is down by over 2.5 million hectares from 20 years ago. 000 Hectares 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Wheat Canola Pulses Soybeans Barley Oats Canadian Wheat Crop in Review

3 TOTAL WHEAT SEEDED AREA (Million Hectares) % Y/Y Total Wheat Spring Wheat Durum Winter Wheat Source: CANSIM Table Yield (kilograms per hectare) 4,000 3,500 3, ,000 1,500 1, ,500 2,400 Canadian Wheat Yields Durum Source: CANSIM Table Spring Wheat Overall, yields for spring wheat are still above the longterm average despite the dry conditions in parts of Western Canada. This is in keeping with the growth trend in Canadian wheat yields. The 2017 yield for Canadian spring wheat is estimated to be about 3.5 tonnes per hectare compared to the average since 2000 of 2.7 tonnes per hectare. The 2017 yield for Canadian durum is estimated to be 2.1 tonnes per hectare, versus the average since 2000 of 2.3 tonnes per hectare. Due to a decrease in the hectares seeded and the fall in yields, Canadian durum production is estimated to be less than 45% of the record durum crop seen in It is significant to note the continued strength in pulse crop production. Pulse crops like peas and lentils have been giving producers a high return and, therefore, we are seeing increased hectares going into these crops. Wheat and durum are competing for cropland. CANADIAN MAJOR CROP PRODUCTION (Million Tonnes) * Wheat, all Wheat, excl durum Wheat, durum Canola Soybeans Barley Pulses Oats Source: Statistics Canada *Estimated as of November Canadian Wheat Crop in Review

4 2% 18% 41% Canadian Spring Wheat Production The majority of spring wheat in Canada is produced in the three Prairie provinces Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. 39% The province of Saskatchewan produces about 41% of the spring wheat grown in Canada. This is followed by Alberta which produces about 39% and Manitoba which produces about 18%. The next largest producer is the province of Ontario, at about 2%. Saskatchewan Alberta Manitoba Ontario 17% 83% Canadian Durum Wheat Production Virtually all Canadian durum production takes place in Saskatchewan and Alberta. This past year the province of Saskatchewan produced about 83% of Canadian durum wheat while Alberta accounted for the remaining 17% Canadian Wheat Crop in Review

5 CANADIAN WHEAT (EXCLUDING DURUM) SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION (Million Tonnes), CUMULATIVE (August to July) Beginning Stocks Production Exports and Domestic Exports Domestic End Stocks Source: CANSIM Table Incoming world stocks for wheat (excluding durum) for the 2017/18 year are at about 242 million tonnes. While this is a slight increase over the stocks at the end of the previous crop year, wheat stocks remain low due to strong exports from Western Canada. CANADIAN DURUM SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION (Million Tonnes), CUMULATIVE (August to July) Beginning Stocks Production Exports and Domestic Exports Domestic End Stocks Source: CANSIM Table Durum stocks at the beginning of the 2017/18 crop year are below the long-term average. Stocks of Canadian durum are expected to decline further throughout the 2017/18 year because of the lower production. Unlike the previous year the quality of the 2017 harvest is much higher than average Canadian Wheat Crop in Review