CN/SC/2008/RP/H/2 UNESCO 2009

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3 UNESCO Publication as part of Ecological Research for Sustaining the Environment in China (ERSEC) under funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). This conference was organized to communicate on a multilateral platform the results of the Sino-German bilateral project on Sustainable Land Use and Water Management under ERSEC umbrella. Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. ERSEC Project Secretariat Waijiaogongyu Jianguomenwai Compound Beijing, P.R. China Phone: Fax: beijing.sc@unesco.org UNESCO 2009 CN/SC/2008/RP/H/2

4 Acknowledgements Many thanks to the following members and staffs: Dr. Matthias Hack Dr. Zhang Baiyu Dr. Marco Roelcke Dr. Monirul Mirza Ms. Lu Hongyan Mr. Meng Shuguang Mr. Cai Jianing Mr. Cheng Shengkui Mr. Ge Quansheng Ms. Ha Yanmei Ms. Gao Dan Ms. Zhang Yan Mr. Wan Yusheng Mr. Yu Yibin Mr. Zhou Jianchun Ms. Feng Wenli Dr. Wang Xiaoping Dr. Qin Yongsheng Dr. Zhi Xin Mr. Li Hao Dr. R. Jayakumar Ms. Liu Yi Mr. Liu Ke Ms. Teng Yue 4

5 Organizations Involved Conference Organizers: Project Management Jülich/Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH (Ptj) Berlin, Wallstr. 18 Germany Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IGSNRR, CAS) Chinese National Committee for International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environnemental Change (CNC-IHP) A-11 Datun Road, Anwai, Beijing , P. R. China UNESCO Office Beijing Waijiaogongyu Jiangguomenwai Compound Beijing P. R. China Sponsors German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Heinemannstr Bonn, Germany Ministry of Science and Technology of the People s Republic of China (MoST) 15B Fu Xing Road, Beijing , P. R. China Ministry of Education of the People s Republic of China (MoE) 37 Damucang Hutong, Xidan Beijing , P. R. China United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) 1, rue Miollis Paris cedex 15 France Beijing Municipal Bureau of Forestry and Parks Room 705 Shuanquan Building, No.3 Beisanhuan Zhonglu, Xicheng District Beijing , P. R. China 5

6 Table of Contents Schweers W., Zhang Shaowen, Wang Xu, Wu Huijun, Li Yinkun, Cai Dianxiong, Cheng Ruifeng, Yang Qichang, Zhang Shaoyan,Yang Peiling, Yan Huibian, and Su Yanfang Reducing the Intensity of Resource Utilization in Greenhouse Agriculture of North China: Results of a Cucumber Water-saving Irrigation Trial at Yongqing, Hebei Province 9 M. Monirul Qader Mirza Adapting to Climate Change Risk: Sustainable Land and Water Management Approach 17 Karin Berkhoff, Marc Cotter, Sylvia Herrmann and Joachim Sauerborn Using Remote Sensing Data as Basic Information for Applied Land Use Change Modelling 36 M. Birkle Simulation Based Decision Evaluation in Water Use Management 46 Harinder P.S. Makkar, Klaus Becker and Liu Jianxin The Role of Jatropha curcas in Sustainable Land Management to Attain Energy and Food Security a Joint BMBF-MOST Effort 53 Christian Sartorius and Thomas Hillenbrand Estimating the Diffusion of Decentralized Wastewater and Storm Water Management on the Basis of Land Use Data 62 Cui Tiening Research on the System of Field Property Right in the Chinese Countryside 75 Bernd Cyffka Sustainable Development of Riparian Forests by Technical Measurements a Case Study of Integrated Land Use Management and Water Management between Neuburg and Ingolstadt, Bavaria/Germany 81 Holger Bergmann Regional Economic Effects of the Water Framework Directive in the Emsland 97 6

7 R. Nieder Nitrogen Surplus in German Agriculture: Interactions with Soils, Aquifers and Adjacent Ecosystems 113 M. Roelcke, U. Schmidhalter, Y.C. Hu, M. Schraml, B. Mistele, R. Nieder, T. Müller, R. Schulz, V. Römheld, R. Marggraf, H. Bergmann, K.-C. Kersebaum, Y.X. Miao, X.P. Chen, Q. Chen, Z.L. Cui, Z.C. Cai, Y. Han, J.K. Huang, R.F. Hu, W.L. Zhang and F.S. Zhang Innovative Nitrogen Management Technologies to Improve Agricultural Production and Environmental Protection in Intensive Chinese Agriculture 130 Wang Weiping,Sun Xiaobin and Qu Shisong Ecology-oriented Sustainable Water Resources Management in Coastal Area of Shandong Peninsula 156 Daniela Weber, Holger Bergmann and Kenneth J. Thomson Multifunctionallity of Agriculture Some Remarks about the Importance of Different Functions 167 G. Langenberger, J. Chen and J. Sauerborn Promoting Sustainable Land Use in the Greater Mekong Subregion - the Living Landscapes China (LILAC) Project in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan 185 Heiner E.Goldbach, A. Fink, B. Reichert, M. Christoph, B. Diekkrüger, T. Heckelei, M. Rössler, P. Speth, and co-workers Inter- and Trans-disciplinary Approaches for a Sustainable Management of Water Resources: Example GLOWA IMPETUS 196 Hany El Kateb, Bernhard Felbermeier, Zhang Pingcang, Peng Hong, Zhang Haifeng, Jörg Summa, Wang Xiaolan and Reinhard Mosandl Rehabilitation of Degraded Land Ecosystems in Southern Shaanxi Province: An Introduction to a Sino-German Project 202 Leif Heimfarth and Holger Bergmann Internalisation of Environmental Costs of Plant Production Systems in China A Standard Gross Margins Approach 215 Sylvia Herrmann and Karin Berkhoff GIS Based Land Use Modelling - LUCC Scenarios at the Regional Scale 231 Mariele Evers Instruments for Comprehensive Land Use Planning and River Basin Management 240 7

8 K.C. Kersebaum Model Based Nitrogen Fertilization Considering Annual Weather Variability 257 Lan Fang and Ernst-August Nuppenau Does Investment Alleviate Water Scarcity and Increase Income? -A Case Study from Northwestern China 271 Dirk Löhr Public Land Leasehold Tenure Approaches A Way towards an Efficient and Effective Land Use Management 287 Niu Ben, Mo Xiaodan, Zhang Li-xia, Zheng Chun-sheng, Zhao Jingjing,Li Xiao-nan, Qin Xiaojing, Fu Xuechi,Wang Qi and Mei Ruhong The Studies and Applications of Beneficial Endophytic Bacillus 314 Reinhard Böhm Overview on Different Treatment Methods for Liquid and Solid Manure Concerning Their Ability to Inactivate Pathogens 319 Reiner Doluschitz, Zhang Fusuo, Diana Ebersberger and Torsten Müller The Sino-German International Research Training Group Sustainable Resource Use in the North China Plain 326 Summary and Conclusions: Establishing Sustainable Land Use and Water Management System 334 8

9 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Reducing the Intensity of Resource Utilization in Greenhouse Agriculture of North China: Results of a Cucumber Water-saving Irrigation Trial at Yongqing, Hebei Province 降低华北地区温室农业对资源利用的强度 : 河北省永清县黄瓜节水灌溉试验结果分析 Schweers W. 1, Zhang Shaowen 2, Wang Xu 1, Wu Huijun 1, Li Yinkun 1,Cai Dianxiong 1, Cheng Ruifeng 3, Yang Qichang 3, Zhang Shaoyan 4,Yang Peiling 4, Yan Huibian 5 and Su Yanfang 5 1 Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences 2 Prof. emeritus of Henan Agricultural University 3 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences 4 School of Water Conservancy and Civil EngineeringChina Agricultural University 5 Environmental Strategies of Intensive Agriculture in the North of China German Technical Cooperation Abstract Greenhouse agriculture in North China is intensive with regard to the use of water, fertilizer and crop protection substances. Water resources are scarce in the region, especially in the Hai River Basin. Given their long renewal times, the alluvial aquifers of the North China Plain need to be protected from contamination and over-exploitation. Traditional flood irrigation has a relatively high share of non-beneficial evaporation. If too much water and nitrogen are applied with this method, the excess may percolate from the root zone with some of it being further lost for beneficial use. Moreover, excess nitrogen coupled with high humidity increases the risks of crop diseases, necessitating higher doses of fungicides. To the extent that incremental benefits are overcompensated by incremental costs, reducing productive intensity in the greenhouse should also be in the financial interest of the farmers. At present, the farmers mostly use flood irrigation on cucumber crops, because they think drip irrigation cannot supply sufficient water in late spring and summer when temperatures are high. To test the possibility of applying the less water and fertilizer-intensive drip irrigation method while still achieving good cucumber yields and a comparable income, a water-saving irrigation trial was conducted in 2007/08 at Yongqing, Hebei Province. Two greenhouses were physically partitioned, using drip irrigation in one half and surface irrigation in the other. A third greenhouse was managed entirely with drip irrigation. The participating farmers received advice, but were ultimately responsible for 9

10 ERSEC conference proceeding greenhouse management. They observed that during winter, drip irrigation would reduce greenhouse temperatures less and augment relative air humidity less than surface irrigation, thereby increasing yield and lowering the incidence of diseases. The trial showed that, as long as the proper quantity of water is irrigated at the right time based on crop water demand at different growth stages, drip irrigation enjoys a comparative advantage. 摘要 中国北方的温室农业对于水分 肥料和农药的利用强度非常高 水资源在这个区域非常短缺, 尤其是在海河流域 由于需要较长的恢复时间, 华北冲积平原的水域需要很好的保护以避免污染和过度开发 传统的漫灌导致相对较高的无效蒸发 如果这种方法施用过多的水和氮肥, 剩余的部分可能会从根区渗漏掉而不能被有效利用, 过多的氮肥和较高的空气湿度可能会增加作物病虫害的风险, 迫使施用更高剂量的农药 在增加的收益被增加的投入相抵消时, 降低温室的生产密集程度也符合农民的利益 目前, 农民在黄瓜生产上主要用漫灌, 因为他们认为滴灌在晚春和夏天温度升高时不能供应足够的水分 为验证减少水分和肥料用量的滴灌方法能保证良好的黄瓜产量和相当的经济收入这种可能性, 在河北永清县于 年开展了节水灌溉试验 传统的灌溉方式和减少水分和肥料施用强度的滴灌进行了比较 试验中, 有两个温室分别被分为两半 ( 一半为滴灌, 一半为漫灌 ), 第三个温室整棚采取滴灌方式 参加试验的农户接受技术指导, 并且负责了温室的管理 结果发现 : 滴灌和漫灌相比, 对温室温度下降和湿度增加的影响都要少一些, 因此滴灌增加了产量并减少了病害的发生 试验表明只要在黄瓜不同生长阶段根据生长需要灌溉适量的水分, 滴灌有着相当的优势 1 Introduction For many years, limited farmland and a fast growing population have forced China more and more to rely on intensive agriculture to feed its people. However, the main problems of intensive agriculture, especially intensive vegetable production, in China today are the irrational uses of chemical fertilizers, especially inorganic nitrates, the abuse and misuse of pesticides as well as the inappropriate management of animal waste, which lead to the pollution of agro-environment (namely soil, surface water and under-ground water), contamination of various agro-products, such as vegetables and fruits, and increased cost in agriculture production. All these problems have raised great concerns from the government and consumers in China. Germany is a world leader in environmental know-how and policy. A Sino- German technical cooperation project entitled Environmental Strategies of Intensive Agriculture in the North of China (ESIA) was developed to reduce the environmental problems in the intensive agriculture of China. The objective of the project is The production of selected vegetables in the pilot counties is environmentally friendlier and of better quality. The project area covers 5 counties in Hebei province: Gaocheng, Taocheng, Xushui, Suning and Yongqing. 10

11 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 2 Materials and Methods The experiment took place in Western Mazhuang township of Yongqing County, Hebei, about 80 km south of metropolitan Beijing. The area has a temperate continental monsoonal climate with hot, rainy summers and dry winters (Figure 1). Figure 1: Climate diagram of Beijing (source: Weather Online) As in many parts of the North China Plain, the soils on site have formed on loess deposits and are therefore dominated by their silt component (Fig 2). According to USDA particle size classification system, they fall into the silt loam category, which can store around 30 mm of water/decimeter (~30%) at field capacity, i.e., the amount of water the soil can hold against gravity after saturation and 10% at wilting point, which leaves an available water capacity of around 20% or 20 mm/dm. 6 5 Fractional share (%) a 125b 70a 70b 70c 70d Particle size (µm) Figure 2: Particle size distribution of topsoil in greenhouses No. 70 and No. 125 (diffractrometrical method according to Fraunhofer) 11

12 ERSEC conference proceeding Most greenhouses in the area are of the Langfang 40 Serial type with 3m thick walls on the north side storing the heat and supporting the near circular construction which is covered by Polyurethane and extends 7.5 m to the south at ground level. Commonly, grass quilt covers are rolled up in the mornings and down in the evenings to keep longwave radiation inside. Unless cold-sensitive crops like strawberries are grown, the greenhouses do not need a supplementary heating system. Boumei 16 and 11 from Tianjin (De Rui Te Zhongyie Youxian Gong Se) were the most commonly used cucumber varieties among the participating farmers. Soil moisture was measured with an EC-20 sensor of Decagon Devices Corp. Electrical conductivity in the soil was directly determined with a Field Scout from Spectrum Technologies and checked against 1:5 soil extract elutions measured with Chinese-made DDS-307A. The soil fertility status during the trial was checked by a portable spectrometer ( Ding Sheng Shi Dai Ke Ji ) originally developed by the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of CAAS. For the drip irrigation treatment, a corrugated line system of Shuang He Shen Guan Di Guan Xi Tong from Zhengzhou, Henan Province was used. This system has the advantage that the segments can easily be pulled apart and rejoined in case there should be a problem of clogging. The flow rate is 2.5 l/hr at 1 bar pressure. Altogether 4 greenhouses (68, 70, 90 and 125) were included in the trials, among which Greenhouse No. 70 was monitored more intensively. This greenhouse was partitioned in the middle, so that one half was irrigated with drip technology while traditional flood irrigation was used in the other. The lowest soil water content for irrigation was at 22% soil moisture or around 60% of the available soil moisture. This equates approximately 73% of field capacity (FC). If the soil water reached that value, 10-20m³/Mu (15-30mm) were applied under the drip treatment. With flood irrigation, 50m³ (75mm) were irrigated instead. The total amount of irrigation water applied with drip irrigation was 40% lower and fertilizer use intensity was 20% lower. 3 Results and Discussion The experiment showed that drip irrigation produced a yield which was at least equal to flood irrigation, while the method turned out to be more economic on inputs (Table 1). The yield increase effect was not so much, but still reached 1.5% on top of substantial water savings and 15.7% fertilizer savings. Under the drip irrigation treatment, the fertilizer application was sufficient to sustain cucumber growth, while fertilizer losses were reduced. Similar results were obtained from a comparison of Greenhouses No. 90 and 125 (Table 2). However, the owner of greenhouse No. 90 had managed to achieve better prices, so that the overall value of production was higher than that of No. 125, the 12

13 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management drip-irrigated greenhouse. Table 1: Comparison between yield and input level of drip and flood irrigation (No. 70) Yield Chicken manure Fertilizer Water Per Mu Output Difference Input Difference Input Difference Input Difference (=1/15 ha) Pound Pound % Pound Pound % Pound Pound % m 3 m 3 % Drip (treatment) Flood (control) Comment Cost for dripirrigation is 1018Yuan less than the one for flood irrigation and it can increase 225 Yuan income. The total increased income is 1243 Yuan. Note : cucumber :0.675 Yuan/kg; fertilizer: 1.25 Yuan/kg; chicken manure: 0.15Yuan/kg; Water:0.1Yuan/m 3 Table 2: Comparison of performance between Greenhouses No. 125 (drip) and 90 (flood) Item GH No. Month ( ) Total Comparison with control Drip (TR) Production (Pound/Mu) % Production Value (Yuan/Mu) % Average price (Yuan/Pound) % Production (Pound/Mu) Flood Production Value (Yuan/Mu) (CK) Average price (Yuan/Pound) By monitoring the soil moisture in 10 cm increments during 48 hrs after saturation, it was found that the water distribution in the soil reached a dynamic balance soon after irrigation. Only the data at 19 cm showed a significant decrease in soil moisture, while the rest showed only around 0.5% change (Fig 3). Even though 1/3 less was irrigated in the drip treatment, the difference in soil moisture content between the treatments was not much, especially in the first 30 cm, the most effective part of the cucumber root zone. Additional water, as applied with flood irrigation, can only have converted to seepage and diminished fertilizer use efficiency. 13

14 ERSEC conference proceeding Figure 3: Changes in soil moisture at incremental depths after irrigation It also appeared that there was a clear relationship between the die-off of cucumber plants and the treatments. This is shown by the comparison of the two partitioned Greenhouses No. 68 and 70, where the incidence of die-off was several times higher under flood irrigation. This was attributed to the higher atmospheric moisture and greater incidence of fungal diseases in the control partitions. Table 3: Irrigation method and observed incidence of cucumber plant die-offs No. of greenhouse Treatment (% die-off incidence) CK (% die-off incidence) Comparison to CK (%) A typical water use efficiency based on the logbook information of the owner of greenhouse No. 125 (drip irrigation) is shown in Fig. 4. During the period of fructification, the WUE rises markedly. On average over the trial period 89 pounds were harvested per cubic meter of irrigation water. The gross irrigation benefit, before operating costs, was 124 Yuan/cubic meter. Production performance was apparently not constrained by lack of major nutrients or high soil salinity (Table 4). Differences in soil type, soil structure or aeration might have benefited yields in GH No. 125 and 90. Such differences, although apparently minor, as perceptible from Figure 2, might nevertheless have had some effect. 14

15 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Greenhouse No Cumulative Irrigation (m3/mu) Water Use Efficiency (Pound/m³) Linear (Water Use Efficiency (Pound/m³)) /09/07 14/11/07 3/01/08 22/02/08 12/04/08 1/06/ Figure 4: Drip irrigation water use and efficiency in solar greenhouse near Yongqing Table 4: Soil fertility, soil EC and yield in solar greenhouses near Yongqing 棚号 No of greenhouse 灌溉方法 Irrigation Method 电导率 ms/cm EC NH 4-N mg/kg P 2O 5 mg/kg K 2O mg/kg 产量斤 / 亩 yield 125 drip basin drip/basin drip/basin basin Cucumber plants were generally well supplied with plant nutrients as farmers spent 17.1% of gross production value on chicken manure (45%) and mineral fertilizer (55%), adding up to 6470 Yuan/Mu. 4 Conclusions and Recommendations Drip irrigation should be the method of choice in greenhouse agriculture of the North China Plain, where water scarcity prevails. This method can save water and is more environment-friendly. It can contribute to the reduction of nutrient losses and help save inputs. A more comprehensive cost/benefit calculation will show whether the investment in a drip system pays off to farmers, which is likely, or whether more incentives are needed to guide the producers and balance environmental costs. To make best use of water savings, drip irrigation requires more frequent water applications. Wei and Yang (2008) recommended maintaining soil moisture of greenhouse cucumber during fructification within 75% - 85% FC. In the absence of continuous soil moisture observations and a common situation for agricultural extension agents operating at the village level in China, it might be helpful to have K c values for different growth 15

16 ERSEC conference proceeding stages of regional horticultural crops grown in greenhouses. Provided that PET values from a nearby climate station are accessible, this would allow for an approximate analysis of irrigation performance merely on the basis of irrigation volumes and soil water balances. Soil water holding properties can be derived from soil particle size analysis or through manual soil type assessment (Hangen & Scherzer 2004, Saxton et al. 1986). The possibility of correlating PET measured in a nearly climate station with real ET of horticultural crops in the greenhouse has been demonstrated by Orgaz et al. (2005), who, using lysimeters, found that peak K c values for vertically supported crops varied between 1.3 and 1.4, which were higher than those of field crops grown in the summer. This was attributed to their high leaf area indices, along with the high proportion of diffuse radiation inside the greenhouse, which allowed for more uniform light penetration within the canopies. Naturally, the overall evaporative demand of greenhouse horticultural crops, which are grown during comparatively cold periods, is relatively low. At of 83% relative air humidity, the incidence of cucurbit downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) augments dramatically. Under flood irrigation, levels of 90% relative humidity are often reached at night time during winter (He 2008), necessitating comparatively more frequent fungicide applications. Acknowledgements GTZ China and the Ministry of Agriculture of Hebei are acknowledged for their financial and logistical support. Thanks also go to CIM, Frankfurt and to the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning of CAAS for co-financing the position of the first author. References 1. Hangen E. and Scherzer J Ermittlung von Pedotransferfunktionen zur rechnerischen Ableitung von Kennwerten des Bodenwasserhaushalts (FK, PWP, nfk, kapillarer Aufstieg). Studie im Auftrag des Bundesministerium für Verbraucherschutz, Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (BMVEL), Bonn, 68 p. 2. He Bing. The occurrence rule and ecological control method of cucumber diseases in greenhouse. Northern Horticulture (6): [ 何冰. 保护地黄瓜病害发生规律及生态调控技术. 北方园艺 (6): ] 3. Orgaz F., Fernández M.D., Bonachela S., Gallardo M., and Fereres E Evapotranspiration of horticultural crops in an unheated plastic greenhouse. Agricultural Water Management 72 (2): Saxton, K.E., Rawls, W.J., Romberger, J.S., Papendick, R.I. (1986): Estimating generalized soil-water characteristics from texture. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 50, Wei Heng-wen, Yang Pei-ling. Intelligent Irrigation Control Index for Cucumber in Solar Greenhouse. JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE. 2008(27) 3:

17 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Adapting to Climate Change Risk:Sustainable Land and Water Management Approach 适应气候变化风险 : 可持续的土地和水资源管理方式 M. Monirul Qader Mirza University of Toronto at Scarborough, Canada Abstract Land and water are the most important elements for food security and human survival. Only 2% of global water resources is freshwater and there is a growing competition over its uses for agriculture, domestic, industrial and other uses. Three extreme problems are associated with water. They are: too much, too little and too dirty water. In recent decades there has been an increase in extreme flooding and associated damages. Increased drying has been observed in many regions of the world that has resulted in crop failure and food insecurity. Water pollution has become a serious problem especially in developing regions. The IPCC AR4 projects about changes in temperature, precipitation as well as extremes such as floods and droughts. Similar to water, significant impacts and changes in land use will occur due to climate change. Coastal agricultural lands will be inundated by rising sea level. Crop agriculture will be difficult due to salinization. In the tropical areas, frequent flooding related inundation would change crop patterns in the flood plains. Lands now with high yielding varieties may not be suitable any more. Droughts can trigger frequent losses of crops and can change land fertility through increased erosion of top soils. Many crops that are now cultivated in dry lands may not be suitable to grow. It is likely that smallholder and subsistence farmers, pastoralists and artisanal fishers will suffer complex, localized impacts of climate change. Current climatic variability and extremes have already emerged as a threat to food security. This would likely increase in the future. In the mid and high latitude countries, agriculture may be aggregately benefited from increased warming. Societies have a long record of adapting to the impacts of weather and climate through a variety of practices that include land management through erosion control, increasing soil fertility, crop diversification, irrigation, various techniques and policies of water management and disaster risk management. However, more extensive adaptation than is currently occurring is required to reduce the vulnerability to climate change. Adaptation 17

18 ERSEC conference proceeding through land and water management should be handled with a holistic approach. There are barriers, limits and costs of such approaches which are not fully understood. 摘要土地和水是粮食安全和人类生存最重要的元素 全球水资源中仅有 2% 是淡水, 并且农业 家 庭 工业和其它用途对水资源的需求竞争日益激烈 水资源存在三种极端问题 : 太多 太少和 太脏 近几十年里极端洪水造成的损失增加 ; 世界上许多地区干旱增多导致作物歉收和粮食不 安全问题, 特别在发展中国家, 水体污染已经成为一个异常严重的问题 IPCC 第四次评估报 告突出强调了温度 降水和极端事件的变化 与水资源类似, 受气候变化的影响, 土地利用也产生了明显的变化 沿海的农田将被上升的海平面淹没, 农作物因盐渍化而生长困难 在热带地区, 频繁发生的洪水及其淹没区变化会改变洪泛区的作物种植模式, 高产的作物品种可能不再适合种植 ; 干旱可能引发频繁的作物产量损失, 可导致表层土壤的侵蚀增加从而改变土地肥力, 以至于目前种植在旱地的作物可能已不适合耕种 已有明显证据表明, 小农 自给自足农民 牧民和个体渔民将遭受气候变化带来的复杂的, 局部的影响 当前气候变化和极端事件已经威胁到了粮食安全, 这种影响未来可能加剧 在中高纬度国家, 农业可能会受益于气候变暖 社会各界已有长期适应天气和气候变化所采取的一系列措施, 这些措施包括通过控制水土流失 提高土壤肥力 增加作物种类 提高灌溉 采用大量先进技术和政策的水资源管理和灾害风险管理 然而, 比适应目前情况更需要的方式是减少气候变化的脆弱性 通过土地和水资源管理的方式适应气候变化应该进行整体分析, 这些方式自身所存在的各种障碍 限制和成本代价还没有被充分地认识到 1 Introduction Land, water and atmosphere are integrally related. From land, water moves toward the oceans where most of the evaporation takes place. The process continues within the hydrological cycle until it returns back to the oceans or inland soil masses and water bodies. The most intensive activities related to the hydrological cycle occur over the oceans. Despite the net water flux from the oceans to the continents, terrestrial evapotranspiration is the origin of most of the continental precipitation (Teuling, 2007). Most of the terrestrial evapotranspiration occurs through the plants stomata (Dolman and Gregory, 1992; Savenije, 2004). Roots of plants play a key role in the climate through abstraction of soil moisture from the entire soil profile. Note that evaporation from interception could also be significant. The hydrological system is potentially sensitive to changes in climate (Arnell et al., 1996; IPCC, 2007). The interactions between increased greenhouse gases and the hydrological system are very complex and are shown in Figure 1. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases result in increases in net radiation on the surface of 18

19 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management the earth. This ultimately results in changes in temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Increased temperature accelerates the hydrological cycle and process that involves evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and infiltration (Huntington, 2006). The increased evapotranspiration enhances the water vapour content of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect, resulting in the global mean temperature climbing even higher. Land use changes will also play a key role in increased evapotranspiration and vice versa. Possible changes in temperature, volume and timing of precipitation, whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, evapotranspiration and snowmelt may result in changes in soil moisture regimes, groundwater recharge and runoff and could intensify flooding and droughts in various parts of the world (Arnell et al., 1996; IPCC, 2007). Greenhouse gas increases Increases in radiative forcing Changes in temperature Snow and ice melt Rise in sea-level Backwater effect by tidal flow Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration Changes in drought Changes in soil moisture Increases in radiative forcing Changes in river flow Changes in floods Changes in ground water Figure 1: Relationship between climate change and hydrology. Source: Mirza and Dixit, 1997 This paper discusses a few issues which include: risks of climate change and sea levels rising; impacts on land and water; implications for food security and adaptation through sustainable land and water management. Land and water resources will be impacted by climate change. The impacts on land could be in many forms. Increased inundation by floods and sea water ingress can occur in many parts of the world. These could be highly productive agricultural lands, or coastal forests. Drought can destroy productive agricultural land through dryness, erosion and loss of quality of soil. Forested lands could be impacted from pest infestation and fire. Impacts on water could also be of 19

20 ERSEC conference proceeding diversified nature. Water quantity and quality would be impacted. Regarding quantity, the impacts could be of volume, spatial and temporal availability. The two extremes of floods and droughts would be more pronounced in many parts of the world. Variability of seasonal water availability will also change. Increase in temperature would likely change water quality in all types of water bodies. Saline water intrusion will contaminate freshwater in the low lying coastal areas. Impacts on land and water will increase risks of hunger and malnutrition, health related problems. The livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people dependent on agriculture could be at risk. Past experience demonstrates that adapting to the impacts induced by extreme weather events on land and water is not an easy task. Sustainable land and water management could assist in adapting to future risks of climate change. 2 Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Risk Major risks for land and water resources would arise from changes in mean, extremes and variability of temperature and precipitation. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from the observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. This is one of the major conclusions drawn in the IPCC AR4. Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperatures since The updated 100-year linear trend ( ) of 0.74 C (0.56 C to 0.92 C) (Figure 2) was found to be larger than the corresponding trend of 0.6 o C (0.4 o C to 0.8 o C) for calculated in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC. The AR4 further concluded that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century was very likely (> 90% probability of occurrence) due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. In the last 100 years, temperatures in the Arctic regions increased at a rate twice that of the global average. Since 1978, Satellite data show that annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3] % per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8] % per decade (IPCC, 2007). In the last century, the Asia region experienced an increased tendency in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. A connection between El Nino and extreme weather events have been found for the South East Asia. Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts have also been identified in many regions in Asia. Such trends are largely attributed to rising temperature and prolonged dryness, especially in the summer months. One of the major observed extreme weather events is heatwaves which tended to be longer in duration and claimed many lives in many countries of Asia. Frequency of occurrence of more intense rainfall events in many parts of Asia has also increased which caused severe floods, landslides, and debris and mudflows (IPCC, 2007). A summary of observed changes in extreme events and severe climatic anomalies for 20

21 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management China is presented in Table 1. In the last 50 years ( ), annual mean air temperature registered an increase in North America with the greatest warming in Alaska and north-western Canada, substantial warming in the continental interior and modest warming in the south-eastern U.S. and eastern Canada. The greatest changes in temperature observed in spring and winter (Karl et al., 1996; Hengeveld et al., 2005) and daily minimum (night-time) temperatures have warmed more than the daily maximum (daytime) temperatures (Karl et al., 2005; Vincent and Mekis, 2006). Analyses show that annual precipitation has increased for most of North America with large increases in northern Canada, but it has decreased in the southwest U.S., the Canadian Prairies, and the eastern Arctic (WG1 AR4 Ch.3, Hengeveld et al., 2005; Shein, 2006). Figure 2: Changes in global average temperature, sea level rise and northern hemisphere snow cover (IPCC WG1, 2007). 21

22 ERSEC conference proceeding Table 1: Summary of Observed changes in extreme events and severe climatic anomalies for China Event Key Reference Heatwaves Intense rains and floods Droughts Cyclones/Typhoons In the recent decade, increase in frequency of short duration heatwaves; increasing warmer days and nights Increasing frequency of extreme rains in western and southern parts including Changjiang river, and decrease in northern regions; more floods in Changjiang river in past decade; more frequent floods in North-East China since 1990s; more intense summer rains in East China; severe flood in 1999; seven-fold increase in frequency of floods since 1950s Increase in area affected by drought has exceeded 6.7 Mha since 2000 in Beijing, Hebei Province, Shanxi Province, Inner Mongolia and North China; increase in dust storm affected area Number and intensity of strong cyclones increased since 1950s; 21 extreme storm surges in 1950 to 2004 of which 14 occurred during 1986 to 2004 Zhai et al., 1999; Zhai and Pan, 2003 Zhai et al., 1999; Ding and Pan, 2002; Zhai and Pan, 2003; Zhai, 2004 Chen et al., 2001; Yoshino, 2000, 2002; Zhou, 2003 Fan and Li, 2005 The second major risk to land and water resources would arise from the rising sea level. Analyses of tide gauge data collected from many parts of the world demonstrate consistency of sea level rise with the warming. Over a period of 43 years ( ), global mean sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8mm/year. However, in recent years ( ) the rise of sea level is occurring at a faster rate of 3.8 mm/year. The IPCC says it is unclear whether such faster rate is a decadal variation or longer term trend. Contribution to sea level rise comes from: thermal expansion, glacier and snow melt, ice sheets, etc. Since 1993, thermal expansion alone contributed 57% to the sea level rise followed by glaciers and ice caps 28%. Melting of snow and ice poses the third major risk to land and water resources. Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined in both northern and southern hemispheres. Himalayan glaciers are melting at a faster rate than ever before, threatening water supplies to the Ganges, Brahmaputra (Tsangpo), Indus and Mekong rivers in Asia. The Asian mega deltas would be at the risk of inundation from the sea level rise. The Zhujiang, Changjiang and Huanghe deltas in China are economically very important which account for a sizeable share of the country s GDP. Rising temperature is causing increased risk to frozen grounds in the global permafrost region. For example, since the early part of the last century, areal extent of seasonally frozen grounds in the northern hemisphere decreased by 7% with a maximum 15% decrease in spring. 22

23 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 3 Impacts on Land and Water 3.1 Impacts on Land Land-use, land cover changes, climate change and the feedback are integrated in complex and interactive ways. In many ways climate system is affected by land-use and land cover change. For example, tropical deforestation contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, snow and glaciers reflect sunlight and vaporization from water bodies contribute to the hydrologic cycle. Climate variability and change, in turn, can affect the ways in which land is used and the land cover of a given area (USGCRP, 2008) which is the focus of this section Sea level rise and inundation The impacts of rising sea-levels will vary by location and depend on a range of biophysical characteristics and socioeconomic factors, including human activity. The most serious physical impacts of gradually rising sea-levels on coastal lowlands are (1) inundation and displacement of wetlands and lowlands; (2) coastal erosion; (3) increased vulnerability to coastal storm damage and flooding; and (4) salinization of surface water and groundwater. The global aggregate figure of area to be inundated by sea level rise is not available. In the IPCC (2007) report, some individual country or regional level information is available. Recently the Gupta et al. (2007) examined consequences of a range of sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (1-5 m) in the coastal regions of 84 developing countries. With 1-5m sea level rise, 194,000 to 768,000 sq.km coastal lands could be inundated. The authors applied the GIS tool to overlay key socio-economic data-population, agriculture, urban areas, wetlands and gross domestic product to assess the overall impacts of the SLR. The analysis shows that hundreds of millions of people would likely be displaced by sea level rise accompanied by severe economic and ecological damage for many countries. It was concluded At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam, A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other extreme, many developing countries experience limited impacts. (Gupta et al., 2007) Drought and soil degradation The IPCC AR4 projected that the proportion of land surface in extreme drought at any one time is projected to likely increase in addition to a tendency for drying in continental interiors during summer, especially in the sub-tropics and low and mid-latitudes. A long- 23

24 ERSEC conference proceeding standing result from global coupled models noted in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) was a projected increased likelihood of summer drying in the mid-latitudes, with an associated increased risk of drought. Fifteen recent AOGCM runs for a future warmer climate indicate summer dryness in most parts of the northern sub-tropics and midlatitudes, but there is a large range in the amplitude of summer dryness across models. Droughts associated with this summer drying could result in regional vegetation die-off and contribute to an increase in the percentage of land area experiencing drought at any one time; for example, extreme drought increasing from 1% of present-day land area (by definition) to 30% by 2100 in the A2 scenario. Drier soil conditions can also contribute to more severe heatwaves (IPCC WGI, 2007). Soil moisture is another topic that affects the dryness situation. Projections of annual mean soil moisture content commonly show decreases in the subtropics and the Mediterranean region, but there are increases in East Africa, Central Asia and some other regions with increased precipitation. Decreases also occur at high latitudes, where snow cover diminishes. Approximately half of the sub-humid and semi-arid parts of the southern African region, for example, are at moderate to high risk of desertification. In West Africa, the long-term decline in rainfall from the 1970s to the 1990s has caused a km shift southward in the Sahel, Sudan and Guinean ecological zones in the second half of the 20th century (Gonzalez, 2001). This has resulted in the loss of grassland and acacia, loss of flora/fauna, and shifting sand dunes in the Sahel; effects that are already being observed. Windblown dust originating in desert regions of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Mongolia, Central Asia and China can affect air quality and population health in remote areas. When compared with non-dust weather conditions, dust can carry large concentrations of breathable particles, trace elements that can affect human health, fungal spores and bacteria Land to be inundated by flood There are no precise global estimates of current areas vulnerable to floods. However, from 1985 and 2003, between major flood events occurred in the world and most of them belonged to developing economies. Analysis of continental data shows that approximately 45% and 25% occurred in Asia and the Americas respectively. According to Dutta (2003) the high vulnerability of Asia to flooding is due to the highest quantity of average rainfall and volume of river discharge (Dutta, 2003). For example, about 70% of Bangladesh is vulnerable to flooding and in an extreme case rivers in Bangladesh carry as much as 200,000 m 3 /sec flood flow. Increased precipitation could increase flooding in many river basins in Asia. In the Mekong basin flooding risk could increase in the wet season. Flood vulnerability could also increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputa and Meghna basins in South Asia. Based on 24

25 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management scenarios from four climate models Mirza (2003) projected that the area flooded in Bangladesh may increase by at least 23 29% with a global temperature rise of 2 C. El Nino event in Africa and associated flooding could increase in regions subject to increases in flooding. The number of extremely wet seasons in East Africa is projected to increase. In response to increased runoff, increasing risk of flooding in northern Europe and of flash flooding in all of Europe is projected. Today s 100-year floods are projected to occur more frequently in northern and north-eastern Europe and less frequently in large parts of southern Europe. In North America, increasing winter precipitation and early spring could escalate flooding potential. In British Columbia, more severe spring floods on the coast and interior is projected Impacts on forested lands and ecosystems About 26% of the world is covered with forests. They are key determinants of water supply, quality and quantity in both developing and developed countries. As water is becoming scarcer, the importance of forests as watersheds may increase in the next few decades, particularly in the developing countries. Forests ecosystems are sensitive in different ways to various elements of the climate systems. The temperature and water limited biomes are sensitive to the impacts of warming and drought and dryness, respectively. Model simulations show that that climate change can increase global timber production through changes in locations of forests and higher growth rates resulting from, CO 2 fertilization effect. However, many limitations of the models have been identified. For example, models do not include key ecological processes. In such cases, the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DVGMs) have been found to be useful. Cox et al. (2004) found that DGVM feedbacks raise HadCM3LC GCM temperature and decrease precipitation forecasts for Amazonia, leading to eventual loss of rainforests Impacts on agriculture land In Africa, It is estimated that, by the 2080s, the proportion of arid and semi-arid lands in Africa is likely to increase by 5-8%. At the same time-line, a significant decrease in suitable rain-fed land, in both extent and production, as potential for cereals is forecast under climate change. Wheat cultivation may disappear from Africa by 2080 and maize production could be substantially reduced in southern Africa under ENSO conditions. In Asia, climate change would not only affect crop yield per unit area, but also the area of crop production. By the middle of this century in northern China, tri-planting boundary will likely shift by 500 km from Changjiang valley to Huanghe basin, and double planting regions will move towards the existing single planting areas, while single planting areas will shrink by 23% (Wang, 2002). Suitable land and production potentials for cereals could marginally increase in the Russian Federation and in East Asia (Fischer et al., 2002).In Latin America, by the 2050s, 50% of agricultural lands are very likely to 25

26 ERSEC conference proceeding be subjected to desertification and salinization in some areas. In New Zealand, areas suitable for crops would increase especially in the western and southern areas due to a longer growing season. In southern Europe dry agriculture lands would increase. Unsustainable land-use practices will tend to increase the vulnerability of agriculture in the U.S. Great Plains due to climate change (Polsky and Easterling, 2001). 3.2 Impacts on water For the fresh water availability under a climate change regime, three scenarios could emerge depending on the direction of change of the major climate related drivers. If: (1) amount of evaporation is less than increased precipitation with uniform temporal distribution, annual runoff would increase; (2) evaporation exceeds precipitation, runoff deceases; (3) extreme precipitation events frequently occur, probability of flooding events would increase; although these events are caused by extreme runoff, they may not contribute to availability of water; (4) evaporation increases sharply due to rise in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Extreme hydrological droughts may occur resulting in shortage of water availability. Africa: Under future climate change regimes, regionally this dry continent will experience mixed changes in water resources availability. Modeling experiments show a significant decrease in runoff in the north and south of Africa but an increase in parts of Eastern Africa and parts of semi-arid sub-saharan Africa (Arnell 2004). A range of uncertainty has emerged from the multi-model experiments. Decrease in Northern Africa and increase in Eastern Africa appear to be the most robust responses to climate change. Climate change would likely increase the water stress across the African continent. Even without taking climate change impact into account and using the Falkenmark s water stress criteria (Table 2), one estimate (Arendal, 2002) shows that by 2025, nine countries of Eastern and Southern Africa would face chronic water scarcity with per capita availability of less than 1000 m 3 /year. Up to 460 million people dispersed over twelve countries especially in Western Africa would face regular water stress with per capita annual availability of m 3. Another estimate shows that the proportion of the African population at risk of water stress and scarcity could increase to 65% in 2025 from 47% in 2000 or a net 530 million increase over a period of 25 years. Table 2: Water stress definitions (modified from Falkenmark, 1974) Annual renewable fresh water (m 3 /person/year) Level of water stress >1700 Occasional or local water stress Regular water stress Chronic water scarcity begins to hamper economic development and human health and well-being <500 Absolute water scarcity 26

27 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Asia: Water resources in Asia will be impacted by various climates, population and economy related driving forces. Flooding could be severe in the tail of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna basins. Increased flooding risks are also projected for the Mekong delta in the wet season for different time-lines. This flooding could be due to intense rainfall or accelerated snow and glacier melt. By 2050, a linear extrapolation of observed changes shows a 27% decrease in glacier area, a 10-15% decrease in frozen soil area resulting in increased flooding and debris flow and more water shortage by 2050 compared to the baseline period Saltwater intrusion in many estuaries could be pushed by the combine effect of decreased runoff in the dry season and rising sea level. For example, facilitated by frequent and intense droughts, a sea level rise of 0.4 to 1.0 m can push the salt water boundary by 1-3 km to further inland in the Zhujiang estuary in China (Huang and Xie, 2000; IPCC, 2008). Expansion of water stress area and increase in affected population in South and Southeast Asia will likely increase due to climate change (IPCC, 2008). Under full range of SRES scenarios Arnell (2004) it is estimated that from billion and 185 million to 981 million people will experience water stress in 2020 and 2050, respectively. Reduction in annual flow for the two important South-east Asian rivers, the Red River and the Mekong River, has also been projected to likely contribute to increasing water stress. In India, eight medium to large river basins show a to -0.6% decrease in annual surface flow by 2050 resulting in droughts and scarcity of available water resources. These river basins are located in the west to the south of the country, which are already drier than the north and east. Based on the analysis, Lal (2008) concluded India is water-stressed today and is likely to be water-scarce by Europe: This continent will experience contrasting changes in water resources and their spatial and temporal distributions. An increase in annual runoff is projected for the Atlantic, while decreases may occur in Northern Europe Central Mediterranean and Eastern Europe. Alcamo et al. (2007) used SRES A2 and B2 scenarios from two climate models to simulate annual runoff in hydrologic models. Results display 5-15% and 9-22% changes in annual runoff for Northern Europe for 2020 and 2070, respectively. On the other hand, Southern Europe may experience 0-23% and 6-36% reduction in annual runoff for the two timelines considered. Changes in seasonality are also projected. From a different experiment, Arnell (2004) concluded that higher flows in the in peak flow season and lower flows in the low flow season could occur. In the low flow season, dry periods could also be extended. Latin America: For this continent, most GCM projections indicate larger (either positive or negative) rainfall anomalies for the tropical region and smaller ones for the extratropical part of South America. In Central America, extreme dry seasons are projected to become more frequent for all seasons. In 1995, the number of water stressed (less than 27

28 ERSEC conference proceeding 1000 m 3 /person/year) was 22.2 million. Arnell (2004) estimated that the number could be increased between 12 and 81 million in 2020s and between 79 and 178 million in the 2050s. The current observed vulnerabilities in many Latin American countries will be compounded by the joint negative effects of growing demands of water supply and irrigation for a larger population, and the expected drier conditions in many basins. North America: Only a small portion of North America, the south western USA is projected to have decreased precipitation, while an increase is projected in most of remainder of the continent. Climate change will bring about four major changes for the Canadian water resources sector: (1) the present mid-latitude rain belt would shift northward; increases in precipitation are projected to be in the range of +20% for the annual mean and +30% for winter for the A1B scenario. IPCC (2007) projects a large increase in extreme precipitation as well as droughts with greater temporal variability; (2) snowmelt and spring runoff would occur earlier than at present; (3) evapotranspiration would be greater, as it would start earlier and continue longer; and (4) the interior continental region in the Northern Hemisphere will, in general, experience drier summers. Driven by these changes, the vulnerability of the Canadian water resources to climate change will especially be endemic in three locations/regions: Prairies, Great Lakes-St.Lawrence and coastal areas. Australia and New Zealand: Regionally Australia would face diversified changes in water resources. The largest Murray-Darling basin, which accounts for more than 70% of the country s irrigated crops and pastures, would be impacted significantly. For the SRES A1 and B1 emission scenarios and a wide range of GCMs, annual streamflow in the basin is projected to decrease by 10-25% in 2050 and 16-48% by On the other hand, salinity would likely to change -8 to +19% and -25 to +72%, respectively for the two time-lines. A decline in annual runoff is expected in most of the east and south-west Australia. Little is known about future impacts on groundwater in Australia. In New Zealand, proportionately more runoff is very likely available in winter, and less in summer (Woods and Howard-Williams, 2004). The groundwater aquifer for Auckland City has capacity to accommodate recharge under all the scenarios examined (Namjou et al., 2006). Small Island States: Based on seven GCMs and for a range of SRES emissions scenarios, the IPCC (2007) compares projected precipitation changes over small islands by region (Table 3). In the Caribbean, many islands are expected to experience increased water stress as a result of climate change, with SRES projecting reduced rainfall in summer across the region. It is unlikely that demand would be met during low rainfall periods. Increased rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere winter is unlikely to compensate, due to a lack of storage and high runoff during storms (IPCC, 2007). Table 3: Projected percentage change in precipitation over various small island regions 28

29 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Ranges are derived from seven AOGCMs run under the SRES B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios Regions % change Mediterranean Caribbean Indian Ocean Northern Pacific Southern Pacific to to to to to to to to to to to to to to Source: IPCC WGII, 2007 There is a wide variation in the estimates of water-stressed populations under climate change. These estimates have not taken into account possible adaptation measures to be designed and implemented. Climate change is one of the driving forces for increasing water stress but demographic pressures, future socio-economic pathways (for example, the SRES scenarios), technological development and its diffusion, access to it and finally spontaneous and planned adaptation factors will determine the level of future water stress phenomenon. The discussions above show that many regions or sub-regions will experience increased runoff but that would not automatically reduce water stress. For example, Cherranpunji in the north east of India, which experiences around 11,000 mm rain just over a period of four monsoon months is water stressed in the dry season because of lack of storing facilities. Therefore, without creation of storage capacities for additional runoff due to climate change, the water scarcity situation may get worse in many regions or subregions. Additionally, storage facilities such as dams and reservoirs could also create many socio-economic problems. One area related to river flow which has so far received less attention in climate change related scientific research is morphological changes to be caused in rivers and channels. Increased runoff could collect a higher amount of sediment from the catchments, bringing that to the rivers and channels and vice versa. As a result of changes (+/-) runoff and sediment supply, changes could occur in some morphological parameters: width, depth, meander wave length, slope, sinuosity and width-depth ratio (Table 4). Table 4: Possible changes in channel morphology due to changes in 29

30 ERSEC conference proceeding water and sediment discharge Q Q S b d g S P F /- + +/ /- - +/ /- + +/ /- - +/ Note: Q = water discharge, Q S = sediment discharge, b = width of the channel, d = depth of the channel, G = meander wave length, S = slope, P = sinuosity, and F = width-depth ratio 4 Implications for Food Security Both land and water are integrally related for the productivity of agriculture, fishery and forestry. Productivity of these systems is highly dependent on good quality land and spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, as well as freshwater resources for irrigation (IPCC, 2008). The FAO (2003) identified that agricultural production systems in marginal lands will be critically under stress of climate change and variability along with other factors such as degradation of land resources through various types of soil erosion, ground water mining, salinization from irrigation and fertilizer inputs and overgrazing of dry lands. Irrigation water demand would increase to satisfy increased crop evapotranspiration needs. Water pollution and changes in instreaming water availability would experience an increased vulnerability and risk to fishery resources. Water is essential for world agriculture. More than 80% of water withdrawn in a year from various surface and ground water sources is used in the agriculture sector. However, the bulk of this water goes for irrigated agriculture while four-fifths of world agriculture is rain-fed. These areas are distributed over Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East and characterized by arid and semi-arid climates. Crop productivity of the rain-fed lands is completely dependent upon timely precipitation of sufficient quantity to satisfy evaporative water demand and associated soil moisture distribution (FAO, 2003). For food production, both extremes of drought and flood can cause damaging effects on crops and their yield. Droughts affect availability of soil moisture to plants thereby limiting their growth. Too much supply of moisture or standing water during a flood can cause partial or complete damage of a crop. Note that the magnitude of damage is dependent on timing of plantation, growth stages and antecedent soil conditions. Most of economically disadvantaged populations live in Africa and Asia. Most of the economies of these two continents are highly agro-based (10-70% contributions to the GDP) although in recent years the contribution of the agriculture sector to their GDP is dwindling due to increased growth in other sectors. IPCC (2007) concluded that agricultural production and food security, which includes access to food in many African countries and regions were likely to be severely impacted by climate change and climate 30

31 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management variability. The regions already having semi-arid conditions ( mm rainfall) are finding agriculture challenging. One of the major impacts of climate change on crops in some parts of Africa would be reduction in growing degree-days, with marginal farms and farmers being most affected. Only a decade from now in 2020, projected yield loss in some countries could be as high as 50% and crop revenue loss could fall up to 90%. Note that agriculture and growing season in some other parts of Africa (for example, Ethiopian highlands and Mozambique) may increase due to a combined effect of increased rainfall and temperature. The fisheries sector will also be impacted especially in North West Africa and the East African Lakes. Freshwater species will be affected by intrusion of salt water and reduction in freshwater. Crises for the agriculture sector and risks of hunger in Asia would be due to a combination of factors such as rapid melting of glaciers, water scarcity and the effects of warming. Adverse impacts of faster glacier melting would be felt at a latter stage and the areas closer to the locations of glaciers would be hard hit. IPCC (2007) projects decreased freshwater supplies in Central, South, East and South-East Asia especially in the large basins, for example, Changjiang. Population growth together with increasing water demand with changing living standards could adversely affect more than a billion people or about 20% of the projected population in Asia by Under the SRES A2 scenario and without taking into account the benefit of carbon fertilization, an additional 49 million, 132 million and 266 million people of Asia could be at the risk of hunger by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the agriculture sector in Latin America, the effects of climate change are mixed as well as risks of hunger. A consistent reduction in rice yield is expected after 2010 and soybean yield would increase with CO 2 fertilization. However, larger crop yield reduction is projected with doubling of temperature variance. Parry et al. (2004) projected that yield reduction of grain could reach up to 30% by 2080 under the HadCM3 SRES A1FI warmer scenario. The number of additional people at risk of hunger for the A2 scenario could be 5, 26 and 85 million by 2020, 2050 and 2080, respectively. On the other hand, if the CO 2 fertilization effect is considered, additional numbers of people at risk of hunger would increase slightly by 2020, remaining unchanged by 2050 and would decrease in Adapting to the Risk: Sustainable Land and Water Management Approach Agriculture, food security and overall human well-being are at the centre of land and water management. In the IPCC s AR4 and in recent literature, most of the focus is concentrated on a sectoral approach rather than an integrated approach. Table 5 shows that in all regional chapters of the IPCC (from chapter 9 to 16), an integrated approach 31

32 ERSEC conference proceeding of land and water management as a sustainable framework has seldom appeared. Table 5: Frequency of the term land and water management approach asadaptation in the IPCC AR4 IPCC WGII Chapter Land Management Water Management Integrated Land-Water Management 9 (Africa) (Asia) 11 (Australia and New Zealand) 12 (Europe) 1 (Adaptation of grassland) 13 (Latin America) 0 14 (North America) 0 1 (indigenous people and land management) 3 (cooling water, integrated water management, planned water management) 1 (Waste water management) 3 (water management, integrated water management and major water management challenges 2 (water management policies and structural measures for water management) 1 (increasing challenges for water management and storm water management) (drainage technology and water management 15 (Polar Region) (Small Island States) 1 (whole-island management including terrestrial, aquatic and atmospheric environments) 0 0 Sustainable land and water management is crucial to minimizing degradation of land and water, rehabilitating degraded areas and ecosystems that are connected with both land and water while ensuring the optimal use of land and water resources will be for the benefit of present and future generations. A simple hydrologic cycle (Figure 3) could be a starting point for integrated land and water management practices in a sustainable fashion, because both land and water interact with each other. The problem with a piecemeal sectoral adaptation approach is explained in Table 6. 0 Figure 3: A typical hydrologic cycle (Source: Iowa State University, USA) Table 6: Some selected land and water sectoral adaptation options and their interactions 32

33 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Land Interactions with water Water Interactions with land -Increased sediment supply Intensive agriculture for -infiltration loss -over extraction can cause Extraction of groundwater food production -loss of water quality land subsidence -impact on aquatic ecosystems Flood control for agriculture Afforestation -less groundwater recharge -improved water quality -increased river channel capacity -increased groundwater recharge Building reservoirs and dams Desalination of sea water Note: column 3 suggested by the IPCC (2008) -inundation of forested lands and human settlement -loss of land based ecosystems -likelihood of contamination of soil and groundwater by rejected brine from desalination plants on soil and groundwater A sustainable land and water management approach could face at least five generic limits/barriers as suggested by the IPCC (2007, 2008): (1) Physical or ecological: it is possible that in some cases application of technological means will not be able to prevent adverse impacts of climate change. For example, a complete melting of a glacier which is now the only source of water to a river; agriculture practices in a place from where it is virtually impossible to stop erosion of top soil to the nearby river/creek (2) Technical, political and social: finding a suitable place for reservoirs which will minimally inundate land resulting in a smaller number of displaced persons;; (3) Economic: an adaptation option, for example, desalination plant for Bangladesh could be very expensive and therefore cannot be implemented; (4) Cultural and institutional: in many cases, land and water are managed by separate institutions. Therefore, ineffective cooperation or difficulties in cooperation could result in partial success or no success in adapting to future climate change; and (5) Cognitive and informational: land and water managers may not recognize the magnitude of the challenge posed by climate change or they regard it as low priority because of other priorities. 6 Concluding Remarks Climate change is expected to cause substantial impacts on land and water resources interactively. All regions in the world will be impacted with high regional variability. Most of the water stressed people would be in Asia and Africa where a sizeable number of people already suffer from the lack of water availability currently. In the past decades, a large number of research studies have suggested many adaptation options for land and water resources to reduce the vulnerability to climate change. However, most of these studies focused on independent sectoral approaches, but an integrated approach should be pursued to develop sustainable options that would maximize benefits for both land and water resources. However, there will be many limits and barriers. 33

34 ERSEC conference proceeding References 1. Arnell, N.W., Bates, B., Lang, H., Magnuson, J.J. and Mulholland, P., Hydrology and Freshwater Ecology. In: (R.T.Watson et al. Eds) Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific and Technical Analyses. Cambridge University Press, p Chen, J., An, Z.S., Liu, L.W., Variations in chemical compositions of the aeolian dust in Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 2.5Ma and chemical weathering in the Asian inland. Science China Serial D, 44, Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. And Jones, D., Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Teoretical Applied Climatology, 78, Ding, Z.Q. and Pan, H.S., The causes and prediction of flood disaster in Heilongjiang Provinces. Heilongjiang Science and Technology of Water Conservancy, 3, Dolman, A. J., and D. Gregory, 1992). The parameterization of rainfall interception in GCMs, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological. Society, 118(505), Dutta D Flood disaster trends in Asia in the last 30 years. International Centre for Urban Safety Engineering. Institute of Industrial Science. University of Tokyo. ICUS/INCEDE Newsletter 3(1): Falkenmark, M., and Lindh, G. (1974), "How Can We Cope with Water Resources Situation by the Year 2050?" Ambio 3 (3 4), pp Fan, D.D and Li, C.X., Complexities of Chinese coast in response to climate change. Advance in Research on Climate Change, 1, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), 2003: World Agriculture 10. Towards 2015/ asp?url_file=/docrep/004/y3557e/y3557e00.htm. 12. Fischer, G., M. Shah and H.V. Velthuizen, 2002a: Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 152 pp. 13. Gonzalez, P., Desertification and a shift of forest species in the West African Sahel. Clim. Res., 17, Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D. and Yan, J., The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries:A Comparative Analysis 15. Hengeveld, H., Whitewood, B., Fergusson, A., An Introduction to Climate Change: A Canadian Perspective. Environment Canada. Downsview, Ontario, 55pp. 16. Huang, Z.G. and Xie X.D., 2000: Sea Level Changes in Guangdong and its Impacts and Strategies. Guangdong Science and Technology Press, Guangzhou, 263 pp. 17. Huntington, T.G., 2006: Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: review and synthesis. J. Hydrol., 319, IPCC WG1, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (S. Solomon et al. Eds). Cambridge University Press, New York, USA. 19. IPCC, 2007.Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (Parry, M. Et al. Eds.). Cambridge University Press, New York. 34

35 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 20. IPCC, Climate Change and Water (B.Bates et al. Eds.). IPCC, Geneva. 21. Karl, T., Knight, R., Easterling, D. And Quayle, R., Indices of climate change for United States. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 77, Lal, M., 2008.Implications of Climate Change in South Asia on the Interlinking Project of Indian Rivers. In: (Mirza, M.M.Q, Ahmed, A.U. and Ahmad, Q.K. Eds.) Interlinking of Rivers in India: Issues and Concerns, Taylor and Francis Group, London, Mirza, M.M.Q., 2003: Three recent extreme floods in Bangladesh: a hydro-meteorological analysis. Natural Hazards, 28, Mirza, M.M.Q., 2004: Climate Change and the CanadianMirza, M.M.Q. and A. Dixit, 1997: Climate change and water management in the GBM basins. Water Nepal, 5(1), Parry, M., C.A. Rosenzweig, M. Iglesias, M. Livermore and G. Fisher, 2004: Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios. Global Environ.Chang., 14(1), Polsky and Easterling III, Adaptation to climate variability and change in the US Great Plains: A multi-scale analysis of Ricardian climate sensitivities. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, 85, Savenije, H. H. G. (2004), The importance of interception and why we should delete the term evapotranspiration from our vocabulary, Hydrological Processes, 18(8), , doi: /hyp.5563.shein, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002: Vital Climate Graphics. United Nations Environment Programme. (http: // 29. Vincent, L. and Mekis, E., Changes in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices for Canada over the twentieth century. Atmosphere-Ocean, 44, Wang, T., 2003: Study on desertification in China. Contents of desertification research. J. Desert Res., 23(5), Yoshino, M Problems in climatology of dust storm and its relation to human activities in Northwest China. Journal of Arid Land Studies, 10, Yoshino, M Kosa (Asian dust) related to Asian Monsoon System. Korean Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 5, S93-S Zhai P. and X. Pan, 2003: Trends in temperature extremes during in China. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1913, doi: / 2003GL Zhai, P.M., A. Sun, F. Ren, X. Liu, B. Gao and Q. Zhang, 1999: Changes of climate extremes in China. Climatic Change, 42, Zhai, P.M., 2004: Climate change and meteorological disasters. Sci. Techn. Rev., 193(7), Zhou, Y.H., Characteristics of weather and climate during drought periods in South China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 14, S118-S

36 ERSEC conference proceeding Using Remote Sensing Data as Basic Information for Applied Land Use Change Modelling 遥感数据作为应用土地利用变化模型的基础 Karin Berkhoff 1, Marc Cotter 2, Sylvia Herrmann 1 and Joachim Sauerborn 2 1 Department of Environmental Planning, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany (berkhoff@umwelt.uni-hannover.de) 2 Institute for Plant Production and Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Germany (cotter@uni-hohenheim.de) Abstract The objective of the LILAC ( Living Landscapes China ) project is to develop a decision support tool for sustainable land use development. The study area is the Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (NNNR), located in Yunnan province of China. The modelling framework applied in the LILAC project is called NabanFrame. It follows an interdisciplinary approach integrating environmental planning, economy, ecology, and sociology. Each of the disciplines builds up its own model under the umbrella of the NabanFrame modelling framework. The paper describes the development of the common data base for the LILAC project, illustrating the various data requirements of the disciplines. An essential data source for most of the disciplines is a detailed land use map, derived from IKONOS satellite imagery for the study area. The contents of the common data base have been discussed intensely in the beginning of the project, proving the importance of an appropriate data base for interdisciplinary projects in particular. In discussing the data base, project participants gain a common understanding of the research topic and more detailed insight into the problems of the related disciplines. Only by allowing this initial discussion is it possible to obtain a data base that fulfils the needs of all project participants. 摘要 生命 景观 中国 项目的目标是为可持续土地利用的发展开发一个决策支持工具 项目实施 36

37 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 地点是中国云南省的纳版河国家级自然保护区 在此项目中运用的模式体系称之为 纳版体 系 此体系既将环境规划, 经济学, 生态学以及社会学多种学科相结合整体考虑, 又在此体系下建立每种学科各自的模式 文章阐述了该项目普通数据库的开发, 说明了各个学科不同的数据需求 对大多数学科来说一个重要数据来源是由 IKONOS 卫星图像得出的详细土使用规划图 在项目的初始阶段已集中对所需基础数据进行了讨论, 这也显示了一个适当的数据库对于多学科项目的重要性 在对基础数据进行讨论时, 项目参与者们不仅对于研究主题达成共识而且对与学科相关的问题有了更加详细深入的了解 只有通过这种形式的讨论才能获得满足所有项目参与者需求的数据 1 Introduction-the Integrated Approach of Land Use Change Modeling in the LILAC Project In the LILAC ( Living Landscapes China ) project (project duration June 2007 until August 2010) a decision support tool will be developed for the Nabanhe National Nature Reserve in Xishuangbanna with the aim of providing policy makers and stakeholders in the region with comprehensive information for sustainable land use development. The GIS-based tool shall be able to predict the economic, social and ecological effects of different land uses, within a landscape context. Several disciplines are involved in the development of the decision support tool. Environmental planning is drawn on as well as economy, ecology, and sociology. The disciplines form the sub-projects within the LILAC project, and every sub-project is developing one part of the common modelling framework, which in turn serves as an umbrella for the joint application of the four models. The modelling framework is called NabanFrame, as it is developed for the study area of the LILAC project, the Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (NNNR), located in Yunnan province of China (cf. section 2). The LILAC modelling framework consists of three phases: a pre-processing phase, the land use allocation phase, and a post-processing phase. They are shown in figure 1. Figure 1: Workflow within the NabanFrame modelling framework 37

38 ERSEC conference proceeding In the pre-processing phase, the general data preparation takes place. The required input data are described as follows. An important data input is land use in the starting year of the simulation. It is classified from satellite imagery (cf. section 3.1). Just as important is the identification of the demands for every land use type. Depending on their objectives, the four models have different data requirements concerning content, spatial resolution, data format, and reference unit; e.g., the land use change model, CLUE Naban, relies on physical data (elevation, soil texture, precipitation) as well as on other parameters influencing land use allocation (distance to market, population density, ethnic group) (cf. Veldkamp and Fresco, 1996; Verburg et al., 1999). All these data need to be transformed to a 25 metre grid for the integration into CLUE Naban. In contrast, the economic model works on farm type level, assigning the farms in the NNNR to six farm types developed for the region. Input data for the GAMS-based economic model are collected from interviews in the study area. Surveyed data include agricultural area, fertilizer amount, crop composition, crop rotation, and others. Table 1 gives an overview of the data requirements of the various disciplines in LILAC. Discipline Environmental Planning Economy Table 1: Data requirements of the disciplines involved in NabanFrame, further data needs within the project Model Land use change model (CLUE Naban) Optimisation model (GAMS based) (Selected) Input data Land use Elevation Soil texture Precipitation Distance to market Population density Ethnic group Land use Agricultural area Fertilizer amount Crop composition Crop rotation Spatial resolution Data format Reference unit 25 metre Grid Grid cell Farm type Data (Excel) table Farm type Ecology Landscape metrics (FRAGSTATS) Land use Elevation Field surveys of flora and fauna / Polygon Plot Sociology Ecological field surveys Household interviews Social model / Location of households within villages Results from household surveys Topographic map of study area Household Questionnaire, data table (Excel) / / Plot Household / Village maps / Questionnaire Household It can be clearly seen from table 1 that the data requirements of the disciplines are quit heterogeneous. In addition to the data needs of the four models, basic data have to be 38

39 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management provided for the preparation and realisation of ecological field surveys and interviews in the villages. In section 4 the procedure is described which was chosen to satisfy these data needs. In the second phase of NabanFrame, the allocation of land use changes is conducted by the land use change model, CLUE Naban, with data input from all other models. Finally, in the post-processing phase, the simulated land use maps are evaluated regarding their impact on social factors, ecology (biodiversity), and economy. 2 Study Area: Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (Xishuangbanna) The NNNR covers an area of 264 square kilometres. It is formed by the catchment of the Naban River, which is a tributary of the Mekong River. The Mekong River outlines the eastern boundary of the catchment, as can be seen in figure 2. MEKONG River!!!!! Legend Main road (only segment in NNNR displayed)!! Villages!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! N M A NDIAN River ABAN River!!!!!!!! Rivers (Mekong River: only segment near NNNR displayed) Boundary of Naban catchment Elevation (SRTM data) 2291 metre 10 metre! 0! 5 10 Kilometers Figure 2: The Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (SRTM data: Jarvis et al., 2006) The study area is located 20 kilometres northwest of Jinghong city in Xishuangbanna province of Yunnan. The NNNR belongs to the subtropics. The regional climate is heavily influenced by the southwest monsoon with intense rainfalls from May to October. Elevation in the area ranges from 10 to 2291 metres, the highest of which can be found in the western part of the study area. 3 Data Sources Several data sources are available to satisfy the data needs described in table 1. They can 39

40 ERSEC conference proceeding be divided into satellite data and household surveys, and will be described in the following. 3.1 Satellite data Like in other rural and remote areas, the NNNR has no information on land use types available for the whole of the area. Satellite imagery provides an opportunity to overcome this lack of data, since it provides area-wide land use information. A basic land use map of the NNNR for the year 2007 is required by most of the disciplines. As the ecological subproject particularly needs a very detailed land use map, it was decided to use IKONOS imagery (European Space Imaging, 2008) to classify land use. Additionally, LANDSAT-3/4/7 satellite images of the years 1980, 1989 and 2001 (U.S. Geological Survey, 2007) were classified to define trajectories of land use change, which are necessary for the land use change model. 3.2 Household surveys Household surveys in the NNNR villages were conducted by a number of doctoral students with the collaboration of Chinese translators. From March 2008 to July 2008, 219 households were interviewed, focussing on various topics depending on the subprojects. Interviews were conducted from both the economy and the sociology subprojects. Interview results were evaluated qualitatively. It was necessary to built up a common data table within the LILAC project, which contains unique ID numbers for the surveyed households a well as the village they belong to and some basic information about the persons who were interviewed. This data table is updated continuously and thus serves the purpose of coordinating the interview activities in the villages (to avoid double interviews or interview accumulation in single villages). Table 2 shows the structure of the household ID data table. Table 2: Content of the household ID data table of the NNNR V_ID V_NAME ADM_V TWNSHP HSE_ID HSE_NMEP HSE_NMEC GND INTVW DATE Village ID Name of village Administrative village Township Household number Name in Pinyin Name in Chinese Gender Interviewer Interview date 4 Data Processing Data processing in the beginning concentrated on the development of a detailed land use map, as this is a basic data input for most of the sub-projects. As mentioned above, the 40

41 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management land use map was derived from IKONOS imagery. Six IKONOS 2 scenes were available, three of which were selected to represent the whole of the NNNR. Georeference correction was necessary, because the images were only available in product level Geo ; i.e., without ortho-correction, and not mosaicked. The correction was done using Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements taken in the area. The three images then were mosaicked. After that, areas of interest were defined (using ENVI 4.4) for all land use classes. For that reason, ground truth data were collected during field studies within the NNNR. Further, ecological experts made land use classifications based on visual on-screen interpretation of IKONOS images. With the help of the defined areas of interest, a supervised classification was prepared in the ENVI programme. It resulted in the classification of 9 land use classes: 1. Paddy rice 2. Farmland 3. Forest 4. Rubber 5. Bamboo 6. Grassland 7. Water 8. Stream bank 9. Cloud shadow/not classified The post-processing of the classified image was done in ArcGIS 9.2, using the generalisation functions of the raster calculator. IKONOS satellite images turned out to be the most important data source for the LILAC project, because they also helped to fulfil the following data requests (besides land use classification): Location of households within villages Topographic map of study area Village maps The sociological sub-project digitizes household locations from the IKONOS image to add spatial reference to their data. Details of the IKONOS image were also printed out as village maps for the spatial allocation of households during interview trips. Figure 3 shows such a village map. A topographic map has been created from the IKONOS image (digitized villages, roads, rivers), which is absolutely necessary for the planning and conduction of field trips. It can be stated that IKONOS imagery is particularly useful in interdisciplinary projects, wherein not all participants are familiar with remote sensing data. IKONOS images can be understood easily because of their high resolution and their similarity to aerial images. 41

42 ERSEC conference proceeding Figure 3: Detail from IKONOS satellite, showing a village in the NNNR (European Space Imaging, 2008) Summarising the data processing procedure, a common data base for the LILAC project has been created (in the form of an ArcGIS geodatabase), which integrates the needs of all sub-projects. Its content is presented in table 3. Table 3: Common data base of the LILAC project (data in brackets are not yet available or not yet implemented) Feature class/grid file Attributes Spatial resolution Source IKONOS mosaic / 1 m IKONOS Land use land use classes 1 m IKONOS Land use land use classes 30 m Landsat Land use land use classes 30 m Landsat Land use land use classes 30 m Landsat Villages Household IDs County / IKONOS Inhabitants Roads / / IKONOS Rivers / / IKONOS Digital elevation model (DEM) Elevation 90 m SRTM (Digital elevation model (DEM)) Elevation 1.25 m TerraSAR-X (Precipitation) Amount of precipitation / Monitoring stations (Soil texture) Soil texture / Soil survey 42

43 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 5 Data Provision A number of project partners in Germany as well as in China are involved in the LILAC project. That makes it necessary to provide data in a central place, with easy access for all partners. In the LILAC project, data are distinguished between Geodata and Data without explicit spatial reference (e.g. interview results) Geodata are stored on a central server and can be accessed via ArcGIS Server. Additionally, they are also available on an FTP server. This is necessary, because in fact the ArcGIS Server offers multiple functions regarding the visualisation and processing of geodata (even without desktop GIS installed), but does not provide access to the original data. For this reason, the original geodata are also available from the FTP server. Data without explicit spatial reference are only available on the FTP server. In the case that they are household-related, they refer to the common household ID data table to guarantee data continuity. 6 Example of Data Base Use The common data base is used individually by the different disciplines. For example, the IKONOS land use map is a basic input for the CLUE Naban model (cf. Herrmann & Berkhoff, this volume), the economic model, and the ecological model. In the following, it is described as an example of how the ecological sub-project makes use of the land use map which is contained in the data base. 6.1 Landscape matrix analysis Based on the IKONOS land use map, the ecological sub-project made an analysis of landscape structure in the NNNR. Software used for this investigation was ArcGIS and FRAGSTATS (McGarigal et al., 2002). The GIS facilitated transformation from the raster based land use map into an ASCII file readable by FRAGSTATS. Preliminary model runs have been conducted using parameters and estimates derived from field data. Although an extensive set of indices has been calculated during this process, the main focus in the further modelling process will be on the following set of indices: 1. Mean patch size and proportional abundances of the different land use classes 2. Contagion and Interspersion indices to clarify tendencies of land use types appearing in direct proximity to the same land use 3. Patch density 4. Largest patch index 43

44 ERSEC conference proceeding 5. Area weighted mean patch fractal dimension These indices are considered suitable for the comparison of different landscape matrices (Lausch & Herzog, 2002). 6.2 Ecological evaluation model In field surveys, data on biodiversity (flora and fauna, in particular insects) within the NNNR are evaluated. In order to combine the surveyed information on biodiversity, a framework concept has been established. The data on flora and fauna will be combined into different indices using benchmarking processes. These indices will be normalized with the highest value of the corresponding data set (Mueller, 2004). Some of these combined indices will be species diversity, abundance or the occurrence of rare and endangered species. After normalization, the variables will be directly linked to the corresponding classes in the IKONOS land use map using a GIS. The thematic raster maps resulting from this process will be altered by using mathematical equations. They are derived from the data sets provided by the fauna migration analysis, the work on floral habitat suitability, as well as extensive literature review. Special focus will be laid on barrier, corridor and halo effects (Ricketts, 2001). This process will lead to a set of rules that allows the thematic maps to be transformed into a combined categorized map of biodiversity value or ecological significance. This impact analysis is part of the postprocessing phase of the NabanFrame modelling framework. In the post-processing phase, the evaluation of modelled land use maps takes place (cf. figure 1). This example from the ecological sub-project shows how data from the common data base are used in one of the disciplines involved in the LILAC project. The contents and the structure of the LILAC data base have been discussed intensely in the beginning of the project. That shows the importance of an appropriate, useable, and accessible common data base for interdisciplinary projects in particular. In discussing the data base, project participants gain a common understanding of the research topic and a more detailed insight into the problems of the related disciplines. Only by allowing and encouraging this initial discussion is it possible to obtain a data base that fulfils the needs of all project participants. References 1. European Space Imaging (2008): IKONOS 2 scene, product level Geo, acquisition dates , , Herrmann, S., and K. Berkhoff (2008): GIS-based land use modelling LUCC scenarios at the regional scale. This volume. 3. Jarvis, A., Reuter, H.I., Nelson, A., and Guevara, E. (2006): Hole-filled seamless SRTM data v3, International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), available from 44

45 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management cgiar.org 4. Lausch A., and F. Herzog (2002). Applicability of landscape metrics for the monitoring of landscape change: issues of scale, resolution and interpretability. Ecological Indicators 2: McGarigal, K., S. A. Cushman, M. C. Neel, and E. Ene (2002): FRAGSTATS: Spatial Pattern Analysis Program for Categorical Maps. Computer software program produced by the authors at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Available at: landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html 6. Ricketts, T.H. (2001): The matrix matters: effective isolation in fragmented landscapes. American Naturalist 158(1): U.S. Geological Survey (2007): Landsat 7 ETM+ scene, acquisition date ; Landsat 4 TM scene, acquisition date , Landsat 3 MSS scene, acquisition date Veldkamp, A., and Fresco, L. O. (1996): CLUE: A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects. Ecological Modelling 85: Verburg, P. H., de Koning, G. H. J., Kok, K., Veldkamp, A., and J. Bouma, (1999): A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecological Modelling 116:

46 ERSEC conference proceeding Simulation Based Decision Evaluation in Water Use Management 基于水资源利用管理决策评估的模拟 M. Birkle Fraunhofer Institute for Information and Data Processing IITB, Germany Abstract The present situation of local or regional water use and water distribution systems will change according to economic and social development, and according to decisions of local and national authorities. For these reasons, today's decisions concerning water use, water resource exploitation and water distribution should not only be made by considering present problems, but should also take into account its influences on future developments. A convenient method to include future impacts of present decisions is to simulate the changes of the present situation into a future situation as a result of man-made and natural activities. To do this we need models of water use and the water resource systems under consideration. Furthermore, we need boundary conditions and input parameters to calculate the transition of the present system status into a future system status under well defined implications. The decision alternatives of the decision makers have to be described in this context with different scenarios, one scenario for each alternative. The definition of different scenarios is a basic task in this procedure and should be done in cooperation between decision makers and modelling experts because in this step the alternatives and needs of the decision makers, as well as the requirements of model calculation, should be integrated. The generation of a complete set of model input parameters from a complete and adequate scenario can be performed in a computer-aided and automatic way. The results of model calculations for different scenarios will be various future system situations, one for each scenario, whereas the best one identifies the most favourable scenario and therefore identifying the optimal decision. This contribution addresses aspects of application and technical problems of this procedure; especially how to handle incomplete or inconsistent scenarios and how to get good estimations of spatially distributed model input parameter and model boundary conditions in large model areas of some hundreds to some thousands of km². Examples of application of this procedure in Beijing municipality area are also given. 46

47 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 摘要 地方性或区域性的水资源利用和水资源分配系统的现状会随着经济和社会的发展状况, 以及地方和国家的管理而相应的改变 因此, 当今关于水资源利用 水资源开发和水资源分配的决策不仅要考虑现在存在的问题, 还要验证其对于未来发展的影响 一个将未来因素纳入当前决策中的较好方法是模拟现有条件下的变化, 并作为人为因素和自然因素共同作用的结果纳入未来的条件 想要做到这一点, 我们需要研究水资源利用模型和水资源系统 我们需要限制条件及输入参数去计算详细定义下现有系统状况向未来系统状况的转换 本中将用不同的模式来描述决策者的决策方法, 每一个模式对应一种方法 在这个程序中, 对于不同模式的定义是一个基本任务并且应该由决策者和模型制定专家共同来完成, 因为在这个这个步骤中, 需要同时考虑决策者的方法 需求以及模型计算的要求 通过一个完整和恰当的模式可以得到一套完整的模型输入参数, 它可以在电脑和自动方式下运行 由不同模式得到的模型计算结果将表现出不同的未来系统情形, 并且它们是一一对应的, 最好的系统体现最好的模式, 因此也是最佳方案 本文论述了这个程序中的技术问题和应用方法, 尤其是对如何处理不完整或不一致的模式, 如何获取一些较准确的空间分布模型输入参数的评估结果, 以及在数百至数千平方公里的大面积模型区域内的模型边界情况 这个程序的应用实例也同样适用于北京地区 Water supply and water use of large metropolitan areas are complex dynamic systems depending on many influences and interactions. If we take the metropolis of Beijing as an example we have on one side the local water resources in the Beijing municipality, and on the other side the growing consumer groups of households, industry and agriculture. The available water resources in detail are: Groundwater from numerous groundwater wells and well fields exploiting the high yield aquifers under the North Chinese Plain Local surface water from the rivers (Chaobai, Yongding etc.) and from numerous reservoirs (Miyun, Guanting, Huairou as the largest) Recharge or renewal of both resources directly depends on local climate and on land use. Today both resources are overexploited. Therefore, in the future Beijing has to use the South to North Water Transfer and an increasing reuse of treated wastewater as a third and fourth category of water resources. The exploitation fields or exploitation points of the resources have different restrictions concerning exploitation rate and quality of water. For example, treated wastewater is not suitable for drinking water and should preferably be used as irrigation water or industrial water, dependent on the degree of treatment. On the consumer side, agriculture represents the largest consumer group, using about 40,000 to 50,000 local wells and exploitation facilities. Total consumption, meaning the 47

48 ERSEC conference proceeding sum of agriculture, industry and households, has a time variable and regionally distributed structure resulting in a corresponding structure of waste water emissions. Concerning this complex, dynamic and regionally distributed system of water supply, water demand and waste water disposal/reuse, it is obvious that long or medium term results of today s interventions or management decisions are very difficult to forecast. Therefore the management of such a complex systems needs a computer-aided management and decision support system for determination and evaluation of the future results of today s interventions and actions. Application areas and tasks of this management and decision support system are presented in Figure 1. If we want to determine future behaviour or a future status of an integrated water resource and water allocation system, all relevant information about the system has to be aggregated in models describing the input/output behaviour of the water resources within given conditions. Figure 2 shows that these models are the central part of any water management and decision support systems. The algorithms and underlying balance equations used in groundwater and surface water models are state-of-the-art. Commercial software systems with modules for a variety of detailed processes are available on a high technical level from different suppliers. But these models and software systems have to be structured and parameterised according to the particular application or task. The quality of model calculation, simulation and prognosis will be defined primarily by these procedures of structuring and parameterisation and less by selection of a particular commercially available software system. For large model regions with some thousands of km², like the plain area of Beijing Municipality, the parameters and boundary conditions of the models are 48

49 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management spatially distributed variable and depend on time. Instead of constant parameters, we have to determine parameter functions F(x,y,z,t) starting with maps; e.g., topographic maps, land use maps, precipitation maps, hydro geological maps, resource or exploitation maps and time series for time-dependent variables. If intervention or changes happen in a water resource and water allocation system, the system will change from a present status into a future system status, which can be calculated by simulation using a model and a scenario. A scenario in this context is a complete set of a starting system status, model input parameters and boundary conditions to calculate the corresponding future system status at a defined time. If we have different alternatives for actions or decisions, we need different scenarios, one scenario for each alternative. Figure 3 shows a simplified example for the use of scenarios. The task in this example is to find an adequate reaction for the assumed two dry years of 2009 and Fig. 2: Basic structure of a water management and decision support system 49

50 ERSEC conference proceeding Figure 3 shows that scenario building is a starting point and prerequisite of any computer-aided integrated water resource and water allocation management. In a scenario, assumptions, predictions, boundary conditions etc. are assembled in order to generate complete model input parameters for simulation. To build up scenarios for complex water management systems is in itself a complex and difficult task. The scenarios have to be complete and consistent. In order to handle complexity, completeness and consistency, scenario building, as well as tests and approval of the scenario, should be performed computer-aided and automated. To do this, we start with building up a total water budget of the model region. In case of Beijing Municipality this is the plain area with a size of about km². Figure 4 presents as an example the water budget of the year We see in this example the quantification of all water flows within the model area as well as the inflows and outflows of the model area. Water Budget Beijing 2000 (FhG) Modeling Area: 6300km² 2,1 km³ Waste Water Run Off 0.62 km 3 Industry ET km³ Industry Daily Life km 3 Diffuse Losses 0.85 km 3 Daily Life km km 3 Inflow: km³ Surface Water Surface Water Run Off km³ 0,11 km³ 0,63 km³ Agricultural Irrigation 0.7 km km 3 Overexploitation Groundw at er Run Of f 0.03 km 3 Krol 2005 Seite 1 Figure 4: Yearly Water Budget Beijing 2000 The next step in scenario building is the regionalisation of the water budget. Because of the strong influence of land cover and land use on recharge of groundwater and surface water, the procedure of computer-aided regionalisation and scenario approval uses an actual land use map. Figure 5 shows as an example a land use map of the plain section of the Beijing Municipal area of the year From originally 13 different land use types we have reduced it to 5 water relevant land use classes. Table 1 presents the corresponding balance equations at soil surface according to the 5 water relevant land use classes. 50

51 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Urban/residential areas (1980 km²) Agriculture/ 2 Harvests (3727 km²) Woodlands/ Orchards (310 km²) Open woodlands/ Meadows/ Shrubbery (45 km²) Water areas per. (100 km²) Water areas eph. (138 km²) Figure 5: Water relevant land use classes in the plain area of Beijing Table 1: Balance equation at soil surface according to land use maps Precipit ation + Irrigation + Infiltration f. surface water Pre Infiltration f. waste water losses from sewage system Pre + Irrigation = Pre + Irrigation reduced = = Evapotrans piration + = ET + ET for 2 harvests ET for 1 harvest, vegetation Pre = ET + Pre Contributio n from other land uses + inflow + - = ET perennial water areas + + ET ephemeral water areas + Groundwater recharge Groundwater recharge from precipitation, losses from sewage Groundwater recharge from precipitation, irrigation Groundwater recharge from precipitation, irrigation Groundwater recharge from precipitation Groundwater recharge from perennial water areas Groundwater recharge from ephemeral water areas Contribution to surface water Contribution to surface water Contribution to surface water Contribution to surface water Contribution to surface water + outflow The first line represents the principle of balancing and the following lines represent the application of this principle to the land use classes. If sufficient information is available, the number of water related land use classes can be increased, especially the shape of the 51

52 ERSEC conference proceeding soil surface can be included, if the model area is not a plain. However, it should be mentioned that in the land use class water areas perennial and ephemeral areas have to be distinguished, as well as the fact that the areas will change depending on annual precipitation. Furthermore, we can define open channels as a third variance of water areas with evaporation and with reduced or without percolation. Thus, it is easy to include the waterways from the South to the North Transfer and the waste water channels and to realise the physical coupling of all four water resources in an integrated management and decision support system. Scenario building in general means to determine the variables of these 5 or more equations, either from direct or indirect measurement results, or from publications, estimations or assumptions. The horizontal inflow, as a part of groundwater recharge, is not included in these equations. This inflow is taken from the total water budget and regionalised by using hydro geological maps representing the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity k f and specific yield n f. The set of input data has been completed through exploitation maps and the data of exploitation points representing the regionalisation of the water withdrawal. The future exploitation in a scenario may be estimated from the expected water demand, which itself can be taken from assumptions and estimations, or it can be calculated from climate models and/or water demand models. Once the described procedure of scenario definition and scenario building is finished, the calculation of the model input parameter functions F (x, y, z, t) can be performed automatically and completeness and consistence of the scenario can be tested and approved by computer. In this way we have a procedure and tools for an easy and correct transformation of alternative interventions or decisions into alternative scenarios for a simulation-based decision evaluation in integrated water resource and water allocation systems. 52

53 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The Role of Jatropha curcas in Sustainable Land Management to Attain Energy and Food Security a Joint BMBF-MOST Effort 麻疯树在土地可持续管理与能源和食品安全中的作用 中德合作项目简介 Harinder P.S. Makkar 1, Klaus Becker 1 and Liu Jianxin 2 1 University of Hohenheim 2 Zhejiang University Abstract Jatropha curcas is considered to be 70 million years old and is the most primitive member of the large genus Euphorbiaceae. It is a multipurpose plant, has high water use efficiency, is not grazed by animals and is drought and disease resistant in the wild. The major attribute which makes Jatropha an exciting future crop for energy generation is its capability to grow in degraded, poor and marginal lands, with no competition for food or feed; contributing to soil reclamation and rural socio-economic development. Globally, there are huge areas of degraded former crop lands available for planting Jatropha. China and India alone report up to 150 million ha of degraded lands, and establishment of Jatropha plantations on such areas creates opportunities for development, generates employment in the rural sector, enhances income of farmers, and contributes to human welfare and to the whole world economy. The conversion of food crops to biofuels and the accelerated demand for animal products is leading to feed shortages; whereas, the seed meal left after extraction of oil (approximately 35 % oil in seeds) from Jatropha seeds could be a potential source of livestock feed. In addition to producing oil and seed meal and reducing greenhouse gases, the plant has other important roles, such as: a) land reclamation and additional agro-ecological advantages, b) provision of chemicals with potential in industry (e.g., dyes), medicine (e.g., antiinflammatory and wound healing compounds), pharmaceutical and bio-pesticide applications (e.g., phorbol esters present in the oil kill the snails at extremely low concentrations and hence could be used to control the deadly human disease schistosmiasis; and these also could possibly be used for controlling agricultural pests and insects leading to enhanced crop productivity), c) hedge plant, d) rodent repellent, e) wind breaker in sandy and harsh 53

54 ERSEC conference proceeding environments, and f) support plant (e.g., vanilla plantations). Reflecting the multiple benefits, our analysis suggests that the cultivation of Jatropha on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands prevents the destruction of native ecosystems, helps in managing the land use efficiently, and effectively reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Our German-Sino project aims to enhance the economic viability and sustainability of a Jatropha-based biofuel production system by introducing innovative industrial and livestock production systems. Specifically, we seek to: utilize a by-product of the oil production; Jatropha seed meal as a substitute for soyabean meal in livestock feed enhance efficiency of production and use of oil as fuel conduct production cost analysis of the Jatropha seed detoxification process and financial and economic assessment along the value chain of oil/biodiesel production systems. At present Jatropha seed meal is toxic to animals, and efficiency of oil extraction from Jatropha seeds and its use are far from satisfactory. The outputs from this project have high potential for making the industry competitive in facing new challenges, especially in the area of renewable energy, for generating new resources, and for sustainable development and environmental conservation through sustainable and efficient land use. 摘要麻疯树有 7 千多万年的历史, 是大型大戟属植物的最古老成员 它是一种多用途植物, 能高效利用水, 不为动物食用, 具有耐干旱和野外抵御病害的能力 麻疯树能在恶劣 贫瘠和边缘地带生长, 与粮食和饲料生产不构成竞争, 还可改良土地, 促进农村社会和经济发展, 这些优势使得麻疯树成为一种能源生产具有前景的作物 从全球看, 有大量原先用于谷物生产的贫瘠土地可用于种植植麻疯树 据报道, 仅中国和印度这种贫瘠的土地面积就高达 1.5 亿公顷 在这些地区种植麻疯树将会创造许多发展机会, 提高农村就业率, 增加农民收入, 可为人类社会和整个世界经济发展做出贡献 把粮食作物用于生物燃料生产与动物产品需求的快速增加, 导致了饲料的严重短缺, 而麻疯树种籽 ( 含油量约 35%) 脱油后的籽饼粕可以成为潜在的动物饲料资源 这种植物除了能用于生产油和饲料饼粕 以及减少温室效应气体外, 还有其他一些重要作用, 例如 :(1) 改良土地和获取额外的农业生态效益 ;(2) 提供潜在的化学制品, 用于工业 ( 如染料 ) 医药( 如消炎和创伤治疗剂 ) 和用作药剂和生物杀虫剂 ( 如种籽油中的佛波酯在极低浓度下可杀死蜗牛这种血吸虫病菌携带者, 该病是热带地区的第二大人类疾病 ; 佛波酯也可用于控制农业病虫害, 从而提高农作物产量 );(3) 作为树篱植物 ;(4) 防止啮齿动物 ;(5) 作为沙化和荒漠地带的挡 54

55 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 风带 ;(6) 作为支持植物 ( 如香草种植 ) 等 综合其诸多优点, 我们的分析表明, 在贫瘠和荒芜的土地上种植麻疯树可减少自然生态系统的破坏, 有助于有效地管理土地, 有效降低温室效应气体排放 中德合作项目的目的是, 通过研究和开发新型工业和家畜生产体系, 提高以麻疯树为基础的生物燃料生产系统的经济效益与可持续性 具体地说, 我们拟实现以下目标 : 利用生物柴油生产的副产品, 即麻疯树饼粕作为动物饲料中大豆饼粕的替代物 ; 提高麻疯树种籽油作为燃料生产和利用的效率 ; 完成麻疯树种籽脱毒过程的成本分析, 以及围绕种籽油 / 生物燃料生产系统价值链的经济和效益评估 目前, 麻疯树饼粕对动物是有毒的, 从麻疯树种籽中提取油的效率以及其利用远非理想 该合作项目的研究成果具有很大的潜力, 将使其产业在新的挑战面前具有竞争力, 尤其是在可再生能源 新资源, 以及通过可持续与有效的土地利用达到保护环境和实现可持续发展等方面 The world s food security is threatened by increasing land degradation, climatic changes imposed by increased emissions of green house gases, water depletion, and energy crisis. According to FAO, about 23% of the usable land is degraded and, it is increasing by 6 to 10 million hectares per year. In China 300,000 hectares of arable land is lost per year due to soil erosion. Freshwater resources are not evenly distributed with more than 2.3 billion people in 21 countries living in water stressed basins, 1.7 billion living under water scarcity conditions and a billion people without sufficient access to clean water. By 2055, approximately 64% of the world s population will be living in water stressed basins and 33% in areas of absolute scarcity. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's 2006 International Energy Outlook, global consumption of marketed energy is projected to rise by 71% between 2003 and Together, China and India account for nearly 70% of projected worldwide growth in oil demand between now and To cover the national demand of its fast growing economy, China is already the second largest buyer of crude oil worldwide. Furthermore, China's share of world carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions is expected to increase from 12% in 2000 to 18% in 2025, rapidly approaching the current USA share of 22%. There is an urgent need for finding solutions for reducing imports of oil and emissions of green house gases, and for reclaiming degraded lands. In this respect, Jatropha curcas could contribute to sustainable land development and to enhancing energy and food security. In a study by Azam et al. (2005), a comparison of 75 non-edible oilseed plants revealed J. curcas to possess the maximum number of attributes as a source of biodiesel. The major attribute which makes J. curcas an exciting future crop for energy generation is its capability to grow in degraded, poor and marginal lands, with no competition for food or feed; contributing to soil reclamation and rural socio-economic development. It has high 55

56 ERSEC conference proceeding water use efficiency and is drought and disease resistant in the wild. Globally, there are huge areas of degraded former crop lands available for planting J. curcas. China and India alone report up to 150 million ha of degraded lands, and establishment of J. curcas plantation on such areas creates opportunities for development, generates employment in the rural sector, enhances income of farmer, and contributes to human welfare and to the whole world economy. Jatropha curcas (Physic nut) is considered to be 70 million years old and is the most primitive member of the large genus Euphorbiaceae. There are 175 species of Jatropha plants in the world, of which 5 are present in China. These are J. curcas L., J. podagrica Hook, J mutifida L., J. gossypiifolia L. and J. integerrima Jacq. In China J. curcas L. has many alternate names, for example Xiaotongzi (Panzhihua), Shuhuasheng (Hainan), Huangzhongshu (Guangdong) and Jiahuasheng (Guangxi). This plant has mainly been developed as a biological energy plant, whereas J. podagrica Hook and J. integerrima Jacq are mainly promoted as ornamental plants (Shui, 2005; Ye et al., 2008). The origin of J. curcas (hereafter addressed as Jatropha) in China is unknown. It is reported that this plant has been grown in China for more than 300 years and it has been naturalized. Depending on varied terrains, landforms and climate, the distribution area of Jatropha can be divided into two regions; the Southwest and the Southeast. The Southwest region extends from the southwest of Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the dry and hot valley of Three-Rivers (Nu River, Jinshajiang River, Lancang River), possessing a hot monsoon climate. This area includes the west of Panzhihua in Sichuan, most of Yunnan and the southwest of Guizhou province. In Sichuan province, Jatropha is popular in the Panxi area (Panzhihua City and Liangshan Yi Autonomous Municipality), including Panzhihua, Yanbian, Miyi, Ningnan, Dechang, Xichang, Huili, and Jinyang Yanyuan (Li et al. 2006). In Yunnan province, Jatropha is widely grown in Chuxiong Yi Autonomous City, and Dali, Honghe, which are located around the Three-River Valley in the west and southwest of Yunnan (Zhang et al. 2001). In the southwest Guizhou province, the dry and hot valley of Nanpan River, Beipan River and Hongshui River has the largest distribution of Jatropha, which includes Wangmo, Anlong, Zhenfeng, Ceheng, and Luodian. In the southeast region, Jatropha grows in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Taiwan along the southeast coast (GIB 1998). These areas have tropical and subtropical maritime climates. In many countries, it is being used to prevent or control erosion and reclaim land as a live fence since it is not grazed by animals. It is also being planted as a commercial crop. However, in China Jatropha has mainly grown in the wild and distributed in the valleys and mountainous areas. Lately, interest in Jatropha has increased because of its potential for meeting the challenge of increasing demand for biodiesel, improving the rural economic structure and increasing farmers income. The exploitation and utilization of Jatropha has developed rapidly in recent years, but a large Jatropha industry has not yet 56

57 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management taken shape. Systematic studies on Jatropha botany, ecology and agronomy have only recently been initiated. Productivity reports on Jatropha yields vary from less than 100 kg to more than 10 tonnes of seed per ha. Currently various important agronomic factors such as planting density, nutrient and water demand and pruning time are being investigated. In China the limited studies up to now have, nonetheless, provided the basis for the emerging commercial development of Jatropha. A more comprehensive exploitation to take advantage of its multifaceted potential is needed in order to bring remarkable economic, social and environmental benefits for the country as a whole. Jatropha oil mirrors rape seed oil in its fatty acid composition and important physical parameters, and is therefore well suited for conversion into bio-diesel by the conventionally proven processes. The biodiesel produced from Jatropha oil meets the European EN14214 standards. Unblended 100% Jatropha biodiesel was tested extensively on the road in India with modern CDI Mercedes cars. A total of 80,000 litres were used up in these tests. The overall results were highly satisfactory. Striking differences are found for cetane numbers and emission parameters, specifically sulphur and particulate matters, which are 80% lower than in mineral diesel. These tests have also shown that there is only a marginally better efficiency of 1.7% over mineral diesel in fuel consumption (Becker and Makkar, 2008). In contrast to biofuels from food crops such as maize, soyabean, sugar cane and palm, biodiesel from Jatropha, which grows on degraded agricultural lands, incurs little or no carbon debt and thus offers immediate and sustained greenhouse gas advantages. Furthermore, Jatropha grown on degraded land does not accelerate carbon dioxide emission through a change of land use for bio-diesel production as has been the case for biofuels from food crops. The conversion of food crops to biofuels and accelerated demand for animal products is leading to feed shortages; whereas, the seed meal left after extraction of oil (approximately 35% oil in seeds) from Jatropha seeds could be a potential source of livestock feed. In addition to producing oil and seed meal and reducing greenhouse gases, the plant has other important roles, such as: a) land reclamation and additional agro-ecological advantages, b) providing chemicals with potential in industry (e.g. dyes), medicine (e.g. anti-inflammatory and wound healing compounds), pharmaceutical and bio-pesticide applications (e.g., phorbol esters present in the oil kill the snails at extremely low concentrations and hence could be used to control the deadly human disease schistosmiasis;; and these also could possibly be used for controlling agricultural pests and insects leading to enhanced crop productivity), c) hedge plant, d) rodent repellent, e) wind break in sandy and harsh environments, and f) supportive plant (e.g. vanilla plantations). 57

58 ERSEC conference proceeding Unlike other bio-fuels, the multiple uses of Jatropha represent real advantages over conventional bio-fuel sources such as corn, sugar cane and palm, which to a large extent are being grown on converted lands. Reflecting the multiple benefits, our analysis suggests that the cultivation of Jatropha on degraded and abandoned agricultural lands spares the destruction of native ecosystems, helps in managing the land use efficiently, and reduces effectively greenhouse gas emissions. At present Jatropha seed meal is toxic to animals, and efficiency of oil extraction from Jatropha seeds and its use are far from satisfactory. The appropriate utilization of the Jatropha seed meal left after the extraction of oil is vital for the viability, sustainability and hence wider acceptability of the Jatropha-based biofuel production systems. At present, the seed meal is used as a fertilizer, the selling price of which is approximately 25% that of the groundnut or soy meal, on a protein-equivalent basis. Under the prevailing situations, it is evident that development of a low-cost detoxification process, and use of the detoxified Jatropha seed meal as livestock feed will provide economic sustainability to the Jatropha-based oil productions system (Francis et al., 2005). The toxicity of Jatropha seed meal is ascribed to phorbol esters. Trypsin inhibitor, lectin and phytate are also present at high levels but they are not responsible for acute toxicity (Goel et al., 2007). Our German-Sino project (Fuel and Feed for the Future) aims to enhance the economic viability and sustainability of a Jatropha-based biofuel production system by introducing innovative industrial and livestock production systems. Specifically, we seek to: a) utilize a by-product of the oil production, b) use Jatropha seed/kernel meal as a substitute for soyabean meal in livestock feed, c) enhance the efficiency of production and the use of oil as fuel, d) conduct production cost analysis of the Jatropha seed detoxification process and, e) assess the financial and economic impacts with regard to the value chain of oil/biodiesel production systems. So far in this project, we have optimized conditions for cracking seeds and for separating shells from kernels. The detoxification of Jatropha kernel meal, which contains approximately 60% crude protein, has been achieved. The amino acid composition of Jatropha seed protein is good. Among the essential amino acids, only lysine is deficient when compared to amino acid composition of the FAO Reference Protein for a 2 to 5 year old growing child. The detoxified Jatropha kernel meal has been used as a substitute for fish meal and soyabean meal in fish (carp) diets. The growth of the fish fed by the detoxified Jatropha kernel meal diet has been found to be better than a soyabean meal diet and is comparable to a fish meal diet, suggesting an excellent protein value of Jatropha seed meal. In addition, blood parameters analyzed suggest the innocuous nature of the detoxified Jatropha seed meal. The upscaling of the detoxification process to 40 kg/day capacity is in progress. A report (Wang, 2006) states that, under a conservative 58

59 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management scenario, 2 million ha out of an available 8.3 million ha of land could be allotted to Jatropha plantation by 2020 in China, giving an oil/biodiesel yield of 5.85 million tons per annum. From this data it can be calculated that by 2020 the potential exists to produce Jatropha kernel meal equivalent to 5.6 million ton of soyabean meal on a protein equivalent basis (45% crude protein) per annum. Under an optimistic scenario, according to Wang (2006), the production of biodiesel from Jatropha could vary between 70 and 200 million tons per annum. Under such a situation, detoxified Jatropha kernel meal could provide between 67 and 190 million tons of soyabean meal on a protein equivalent basis. In China, the consumption of animal derived products is likely to increase by 41 million tons by 2020 (derived from Delgado et al., 1995), and the availability of these additional amounts of feed obtained as a by-product of biodiesel from Jatropha, grown largely on barren and wastelands, will significantly contribute to achieving the consumption target of a biologically high-valued diet in a sustainable and environmentally friendly manner. It may be added that from 190 million tons of soyabean meal containing 45% crude protein, 570 million tons of good quality animal feed with 15% crude protein can be obtained. Taking an average feed conversion of 3.5 to 1 for monogastric animals, this amount of additional feed would be more than sufficient to meet the additional requirements of animal products in China. In addition, in this project, conditions for preparation of protein concentrate containing ca 82% protein from screw pressed cake containing 45% shells have also been optimized, and the protein concentrate has been characterized. It contained a substantial amount of phorbol esters ( mg/g), trypsin inhibitors, lectins and phytate The amino acid composition of the protein concentrate mirrored that of the kernel meal and the available lysine was unaffected by the treatment of producing the protein concentrate (Makkar et al., 2008). As for the Jatropha kernel meal, in vitro rumen protein digestibility of the protein concentrate was low and protein digestibility using pepsin and pancreatin was high (Selje-Assmann et al., 2007), suggesting a high value of protein concentrate for high yielding ruminant livestock. For making the protein concentrates fit for use as an ingredient in livestock feed, phorbol esters must be removed, and trypsin inhibitors and lectins inactivated by heat treatment. The adverse effects of phytate could be mitigated by the addition of phytase in the diet. We have also developed a process for detoxification of the protain concentrate. Future studies include the incorporation of the detoxified Jatropha kernel meal/protein concentrate in the diets of poultry, pigs, sheep, goats and cattle. Other technologyoriented ongoing studies in this joint BMBF-MOST project are: a) development of technology for separating shells and kernel from screw-pressed shell-containing seed meal/cake, b) optimization of screw-press technology for extraction of oil and production of seed meal/cake, c) development of technology for cleaning of Jatropha crude oil for use in plant oil stoves, and d) development of small scale combustion 59

60 ERSEC conference proceeding systems for using shells as an energy source. Other information which this project will provide is the identification of non-technical factors determining the diffusion of the use of detoxified Jatropha seed meal in monogastric, fish and ruminant nutrition, and a financial and economic assessment according to the value chain of large and small-scale oil/biodiesel production systems. Further information on the project can be obtained at: The outputs from this project have high potential for making the industry competitive in facing new challenges, especially in the areas of renewable energy, generating new resources, sustainable development, and environment conservation through sustainable and efficient land use. References 1. Azam, M.M., Waris, A. and Nahar, N.M Prospects and potential of fatty acid methyl esters of some non-traditional seed oils for use as biodiesel in India. Biomass and Bioenergy 29: Becker, K. and Makkar, H.P.S Jatropha curcas: A potential source for tomorrow s oil and biodiesel. Lipid Technology 20: Delgado, C., Crosson, P. and Courbois, C The impact of livestock and fisheries on food availability and demand in 2020, IFRI, Washington. 4. Francis, G., Edinger, R. and Becker, K A concept for simultaneous wasteland reclamation, fuel production, and socio-economic development in degraded areas in India: Need, potential and perspectives of Jatropha plantations. Natural Resources Forum, 29(1): Guangxi Institute of Botany (1998) Guangxi Plant Directories. In: Guangxi Institute of Botany (ed) Guangxi Plant Directories, Volume 2-Dicotyledons, Guangxi Institute of Botany, Guangxi, pp Goel, G., Makkar, H.P.S., Francis, G. and Becker, K Phorbol Esters: Structure, Biological Activity, and Toxicity in Animals. International Journal of Toxicology 26 (4): Li Y.L., Zhang P. and He, Y, Perspective of the development and application of Jatropha curcas in the dry-hot valley of Panzhihua. Guangxi Tropical Agriculture 2: Makkar, H.P.S., Francis, G. and Becker, K Preparation of protein concentrates from Jatropha curcas screw-pressed seed cake and toxic and antinutritional factors in protein concentrate. Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture 88, Shui, J Excellent gardening plant Jatropha integerrima Jacq. Practical Forest Technology 5: Selje-Assmann, N., Makkar, H.P.S., Hoffmann, E.M., Francis, G. and Becker, K Quantitative and qualitative analyses of seed storage proteins from toxic and non-toxic varieties of Jatropha curcas L. 2nd Int Symp on Energy and Protein Metabolism and Nutrition, Vichy, pp Wang, G Liquid Biofuels for Transportation, Chinese Potential and Implications for 60

61 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Sustainable Agriculture and Energy, in the 21st Century: Assessment Study ( 12. Ye, Meng, Li, Caiyan, Francis, G. and Makkar, H.P.S Current Situation and Prospects of Jatropha curcas plantation and use as a multipurpose tree in China. Agroforestry System (Communicated) 13. Zhang, W.D., Song, H.C., Wei, X.G., Liu, Z.M Study on growing adaptability of Jatropha curcas in Yuanmou County. Agriculture Technology 21(1):

62 ERSEC conference proceeding Estimating the Diffusion of Decentralized Wastewater and Storm Water Management on the Basis of Land Use Data 基于土地利用数据的分散型废水排放和雨水管理的评估 Christian Sartorius and Thomas Hillenbrand Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovations Research (ISI), Germany Abstract In Europe and in most other parts of the world, centralized systems of wastewater collection and treatment are state-of-the-art. They and their proper functioning are however questioned by challenges such as climate and demographic change. An alternative to centralized systems of wastewater and storm water treatment and management are decentralized systems, including small-scale treatment plants for wastewater and on-site infiltration of storm water and treated wastewater run-off. However, especially the small-scale treatment plants can face a lock-out by their centralized counterpart. This lock-out is based on arguments that hold in many, but by far not all, conditions and regions. It is important to identify those regions where the alternative, decentralized infrastructure, is not locked out because it tells policy makers and business persons where and when the support and adoption of elements of the alternative approach should best be started. In order to identify possible starting points for the diffusion of decentralized wastewater and storm water management in the Elbe region, we use geographically differentiated data concerning today s (2004) population, settlement area, sealed surface area, the installed small-scale wastewater treatment devices as well as size and load factors of the existing urban centralized installations. We then and extrapolate these data to the year It turns out that it is possible to identify regions where the employment of decentralized management of wastewater and storm water, respectively, is much more favorable than in others, and thus adoption of it is much more probable. 摘要在欧洲和世界上大多数地区, 集中式废水收集和处理系统已达到最先进的技术水平 然而这一系统和它固有的功能正面临着由气候和人口变化带来的挑战 针对集中式废水处理和雨水管理 62

63 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 系统的一种替代方法是分散型系统, 包括小型污水处理厂, 现场的雨水渗透以及处理过的污水的排放 然而, 小型污水处理厂尤其可能面临集中式污水处理系统的排斥 这种排斥源于存在的许多争论, 但并非所有情况和所有地区都如此 重要的是识别出那些替代性 分散式基础设施没有被排斥的地区, 因为这将告诉政策制定者和商业人士在什么地区, 什么时间才是支持和采用这种替代方法的最佳时机 为确认在易北河 (Elbe) 地区何时何地开始使用分散型污水排放和雨水处理系统, 我们使用地理分区不同的数据, 综合考虑 2004 年的人口 居民点 已封存地表 已安装的小型污水处理设备及其尺寸 已有的城市集中型污水处理设备的规模和负荷等, 并以此推断出 2020 年的数据 结论是我们可以识别出采用分散型废水处理和雨水管理系统比其他地区更有利, 和采用这种系统的可能性更大的区域 1 Introduction In Europe, and in most other parts of the world, centralized systems of wastewater collection and treatment are state-of-the-art. They and their proper functioning are however questioned by a series of challenges. Climate change is in many regions expected to increase the intensity and duration of drought periods in summer and, at the same time, the frequency of heavy precipitation events (Hattermann et al. 2005). The former events hamper the transport of sewage to the treatment plants while the latter lead to the foreseeable release of excess untreated sewage into the natural water bodies. In the context of demographic changes, it is often difficult to adapt the proper operation of the system to population decreases that occur especially in more remote and economically less prosperous regions; e.g., in many parts of Eastern Germany (Koziol et al. 2006). Finally, there is an ongoing tendency towards more efficient water use and decreasing specific water consumption especially in Germany (BGW 2005; Destatis 2006). Although it is not so much a technical problem, these difficulties lead to an increase in total and, all the more, specific operation costs that may not be easily accepted by the served population (Koziol et al. 2006; Hillenbrand/Hiessl 2006). The same argument applies for the high costs of keeping the long-living infrastructure in proper operation. An alternative to centralized systems of wastewater and, possibly, storm water treatment and management are decentralized systems including small-scale treatment plants for wastewater and on-site infiltration of storm water and treated wastewater run-off. Due to their typically smaller scale, more modular construction and shorter lifespan, both approaches are significantly more flexible and could therefore in principle avoid most of the above mentioned problems. However, the small-scale wastewater treatment plants in particular face a lock-out by their centralized counterparts based mainly on three arguments. Economically, as long as the existing infrastructure represents substantial sunk costs, additional decentralized installations drawing off users from the centralized 63

64 ERSEC conference proceeding system increase rather than decrease the specific costs in the first place. As a consequence, operators of the centralized system support, and often refer to, regulation that forces households to remain connected to, and discharge their wastewater into, the conventional system. In addition to increasing returns to adoption, operators of wastewater infrastructure in countries like Germany are directly executing obligations imposed on them by the legislators and as such perceive the conventional system as more controllable and less risky than decentralized systems. Finally, specific costs of urban wastewater treatment plants tend to decrease with increasing size and, thus, seem to outperform small-scale plants. At the moment, all three arguments hold in many, but by far not all conditions. In shrinking cities or regions, for instance, it may be economical to put parts of the existing system out of operation and serve the remaining users with decentralized plants (Koziol et al. 2006; Hillenbrand/Hiessl 2007). The cleaned run-off is then discharged (without further problems) into the former central sewerage or directly into surface waters. In remote places, small-scale plants show a similar performance as large-scale facilities, but at lower costs. In the future, increasing numbers of producing facilities will decrease their costs, such that now, small-scale plants occupy niches of which the number and sizes will increase considerably in the future. In both cases, storm water infiltration and management complement the decentralized wastewater treatment in that they additionally reduce the reliance on a central sewerage for storm water run-off. Because the conditions for a transition are especially favorable in many parts of East Germany, the river Elbe basin was chosen as the region of investigation of this study. If, for the reasons given, decentralized wastewater and storm water management was indeed increasingly competitive with the conventional approach, policy makers and other actors willing to support the implementation process in an effective manner need to know where and when to best start. In this respect, the approach adopted in this analysis resembles the windows of opportunity approach (see Sartorius/Zundel 2005) with the basic difference being that the window is specified geographically rather than temporally. It also contains elements of the niche management approach (Kemp et al. 1998) insofar as it is assumed that diffusion will start in certain restricted regions with favorable conditions, and will further expand to less favorable regions after acceptance and knowledge have increased, and cost decreased during adoption in the primary niche. In order to specify a possible starting point for the diffusion of decentralized wastewater and storm water management the proceeding in this paper will be as follows. Section 2 describes the model used to reconcile the supply and demand for wastewater and storm water treatment under a variety of circumstances and specifies in more detail the arguments guiding the diffusion of the technical innovations characterizing a decentralized wastewater and storm water management. Section 3 shows the results of this modeling approach with special focus on the transition from conventional to more 64

65 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management decentralized wastewater and storm water management. It also looks at these results in relation to the evolutionary economic literature dealing with path dependency, lock-in, niche management and transition management. 2 Modeling the Demand and Supply of Elements of Wastewater and Storm Water Infrastructure From the techno-economic perspective, it is the primary objective of this paper to identify those regions or locations where the implementation of decentralized wastewater and storm water management is most useful and therefore most probable to start. In order to do this analysis, we apply a model called INNUWIM (INNovation in Urban Water Infrastructure and Management) which is generally used to specify the technical design and the corresponding costs of the wastewater and storm water infrastructure in a given the geographical region (i.e., the Elbe basin) and depending on the existing regulation concerning the degree to which wastewater and storm water have to be treated before being released into natural water bodies. In order to assess the contributions of various infrastructure components to the effectiveness and cost of the entire infrastructure, INNUWIM uses demand and supply data. The demand for infrastructure is basically determined by the maximum permissible values of relevant emissions (in this case the nutrient elements phosphorous and nitrogen) prescribed by the respective regulation. On the supply side, various technologies may be available by means of which the regulatory limits may be met. Eventually, those technical elements are selected from the available set that brings about the desired effect at the lowest cost under the respective circumstances. This analysis is basically carried out on a rather disaggregate level (i.e., communities or local catchments) and can then be aggregated on the level of interest (e.g., federal, state, or river catchment). Figure 1 shows the structure of the model in which the details are explained below. Data concerning the number of persons connected to the infrastructure (measured as person equivalents, p.e.), the wastewater volume, the capacities of the treatment plants, the quantities of total phosphate and inorganic nitrogen in the inflows to, and outflows from, the treatment plants, including the corresponding purification performance, were available for all treatment plants with a capacity greater than 2000 p.e. for the year 2004 from the River Basin Community Elbe and for all smaller urban wastewater treatment plants for the year 2000 from the Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning at the Technical University in Berlin. All these treatment plants were registered with their exact geographical position and accordingly assigned to their specific local (partial) catchments. 65

66 ERSEC conference proceeding Input Urban wastewater treatment plants (geographical position) Connected p.e. Capacity (p.e.) Wastewater quantity Loads of P ges and N anorg, In- and outflow and/or Cleaning performance Communities Population Area Settlement area urban area sealed urban area Inventory of SWTP Septictanks Connections to sewers w/o wastewater treatment Sewer length Share mixedvs. separate sewerage Stormwater retention and sedimentation tank Source: River basin community Elbe (2004) Source: LAND-USE- SCANNER (for 2000 and 2020, all scenarios) Source: Public statistics (2004) Measures technical potencials Cost functions (scenario specific) Source: various references River sub-basins Water permeability of the soil Source: BGR (für 2004) Central sewerage Small-scale wastewater treatment plant (SWTP) Soil retention filters Surface run-off disconnection (SRD) Output River sub-basins P- and N load for Reference state (w/o add. measures) Reduction (with add. measures) Cost for all measures Additionally (beyond reference) Status quo for SWTP, Septic tanks, Connections to sewers w/o wastewater treatment [other models dealing with nutrient treatment/retention in the water bodies] Figure 1: Flow structure of the data in the model INNUWIM determining the influence of the technical specification of the wastewater and storm water infrastructure on costs and effectiveness of the reduction of nutrient emissions Modeling of the diffusion of small-scale wastewater treatment plants (SWTP) and improvements of the performance of existing installations was based on communityspecific data from the statistic agencies of the German states about the quantity of installed SWTP and septic tanks, the number of p.e. concerning the central sewerage, the person-specific length of the sewers and the respective shares of mixed and separate sewerage (all from 2004). Where community-specific data were not available, more aggregated data were disaggregated on the basis of suitable parameters (e.g., number of inhabitants). Part of the more aggregated data came from a survey we had conducted in the beginning of 2006 with the kind support of the German Association for Water, Wastewater and Waste (DWA) (Sartorius/Hillenbrand 2007). From this survey, we could also derive data concerning the actual functional integrity of the SWTP. Data concerning population quantity, urban, settlement and total area were captured on the community level and used to estimate the extent to which surface areas and the storm water run-off collected on them are available for disconnection from central sewerage. These data stem from the LAND USE SCANNER model, which is able to specify different kinds of land use on a very small scale and project them into the future along different scenarios (Hoymann et al. 2008). In general, community-specific data are converted to sub-basin-specific data that are 66

67 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management more relevant with regard to river basin management. In this context, community-based data are respectively assigned to the sub-basins occupying the largest share of the community area. Eventually, modeling requires technical and cost figures characterizing different means in the reduction of nutrient emissions from central and (more importantly in this paper) decentralized wastewater and storm water treatment. These figures come from the literature and from expert interviews and are summarized in the following. 2.1 Small-scale wastewater treatment plants The general conditions for the diffusion of decentralized approaches to wastewater management are based on the scenario A1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic et al. 2000) an. This scenario assumes a rather global orientation of the economy and a decreasing intensity of regulation. For Germany this implies that the existing obligation of households to be connected to, and use, the central infrastructure will be abolished. Moreover the subsidization in some German states for connecting even rather remote households to the central wastewater infrastructure will be omitted. Accordingly, the existing small-scale wastewater treatment plants (SWTP) will persist and will possibly be adjusted to a technically state-of-the art quality. Additionally, a certain proportion of increasing population will also be served by SWTP. This share depends, on the one hand, on the population density and can be derived from the following exponential function PE PE SWTP total population b community area = a e, (1) where a und b (both positive) were empirically assessed from a survey among East- German sewerage operators (Sartorius/Hillenbrand 2007). On the other hand, this share depends on the existence of free capacities in the central urban wastewater treatment plants serving this sub-basin: the lower the free capacities, the stronger the increase in SWTP capacity. Basically the same calculus is applied when SWTP are to replace septic tanks. If the population shrinks, which is expected to be not uncommon in East Germany, it is assumed that the capacity of SWTP will nevertheless increase. The reason for this is that the central wastewater infrastructure will then work even further below its full capacity and it may be more economical to shut down part of it and serve the remaining people by SWTP. Whether such a shut down occurs crucially depends on the extent of the population decrease and the resulting under-utilization of the existing infrastructure. According to our assumption a population decrease below 10 percent is not expected to 67

68 ERSEC conference proceeding give rise to any shut-down nor to additional SWTP, whereas a decrease of 30 percent or more would result in an increase of the SWTP capacity of 20 percent of the shut-down central capacity. 2.2 Disconnection of surface run-off from central sewerage: water infiltration and unsealing the ground Central sewerage systems storm water management includes discharging excess storm water into the natural water bodies. This water is harmful because the surface run-off is contaminated with deposited substances like heavy metals and, in the case of a mixed sewerage system, with wastewater. Alternatively, surface run-off can be disconnected from central sewerage and avoided or treated immediately at its origin. The main components of such a surface run-off disconnection (SRD) are active on-site storm water infiltration into the soil and unsealing of the ground, which avoid the accumulation of run-off water in the first place. The potential for SRD amounts to between 10 and 30 percent in urban areas (Longdong 1999; Wolf/Milojevic 2000) and can reach up to 80 percent in rural areas (Leinweber/Schmitt 2000). The INNUWIM model allows for a maximum SRD rate of 20 percent in existing settlements and 100 percent on newly settled areas. However, the rates chosen as parameters for each model run are not applied uniformly to all communities. Instead, in order to achieve an optimum solution from the macroeconomic perspective, SRD rates are chosen higher where the effectiveness is higher and lower where this measure is less effective. The effectiveness of the SRD is basically determined by the potential amount of contaminants in the avoided run-off, which in the case with the wastewater-relevant plant nutrients phosphate and nitrogen are 2.2 and 15.9 kilograms of phosphate and nitrogen, respectively, per hectare sealed surface area and per year (Hahn et al. 2000). These data apply for the employment of SRD measures in newly settled areas and can even be larger in already existing settlements. In order to calculate the costs of the SRD measures, the specific cost figures of Böhm et al. (2002) for storm water infiltration and unsealing the ground in mixed and separate sewerage systems under different general conditions are applied. Thereby it is assumed that in existing settlements and under unfavorable conditions unsealing of the ground plays a more important role, whereas storm water infiltration is more effective in favorable conditions. In newly constructed settlements neither the cost nor the effect of unsealing the ground are included because, resulting in no additional cost, it is assumed that it will be done anyway. For storm water infiltration the most favorable cost data generally apply. All applied cost data are summarized in Table 1. 68

69 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Table 1: Costs of the reduction of emissions of the wastewater-based nutrients phosphate and nitrogen for useful combinations of SRD measures in existing and newly constructed settlements (in Euro per gram) Measures in existing settlements Combined system Separated system in new settlements favorable medium unfavorable favorable medium unfavorable favorable medium unfavorable P ges -0,68 1,55 10,96-1,86 3,88 21,78-0,75 0,79 2,85 N ges -0,14 0,30 1,87-0,26 0,47 2,16-0,16 0,17 0,59 Finally, it needs to be acknowledged that the effectiveness of SRD measures depends on the water permeability of the soil. In the case of well permeable soils such as sand more simple and less costly installations are sufficient than in the case of less permeable clay. According to Böhm et al. (2002), the difference between both cases amounts to a cost factor of about 2. With regard to all relevant communities the specific costs (k spec ) of the SRD measures are now calculated under the assumption that they (1) increase disproportionately with both the initial (VG) and the eventually aspired degree of unsealing (EG) and (2) change inversely proportionately to the water permeability of the soil (WG) and to the share of separate sewerage (AT). Eventually, the specific costs of the SRD measures can be summarized in the following equation. k spec = ( AT ) (1 0.5 WG) (8.5 e 4.5 EG 9.9) e VG (2) In order to achieve cost efficiency for the entire region (in this case the Elbe basin), the achievable degree of unsealing (EG) for a fixed specific cost is determined for every community and eventually yielding an average degree of unsealing for the whole region. Subsequently, the specific cost is modified until the aspired average degree of unsealing is reached. The same procedure is then applied to areas that will be newly settled in the future, taking in account that in this case the initial degree of sealing and the kind of sewerage system (i.e., separate or mixed) do not play a role. 3 Transition to a Decentralized System of Wastewater and Storm Water Management If a variety of different wastewater treatment technologies and their respective contributions to the reduction of, for instance, nutrient emissions into the natural water bodies are compared, it is often implicitly assumed that each of these technologies has an equal chance to propagate, if it is appropriate for the prevailing local conditions and meets the existing regulatory requirements. In this context, it is often overlooked that 69

70 ERSEC conference proceeding technical developments do not take place independently of each other. Instead, innovations can impede each other through inherent path dependence and lock-out (David 1985), or support each other through synergistic effects. In order to analyze this kind of phenomena, Dosi (1982) has developed the concept of technological paradigms and trajectories. Within a paradigm technical progress proceeds by gradual improvements and amendments (including end-of-pipe) of existing components, but without changes in the basic structure of the employed technology. Innovations fitting into the paradigm can diffuse quite easily. By contrast, the diffusion of more profound and radical innovations proceeds with much greater difficulty for several reasons. First, the technology as a whole usually finds itself in a much earlier state in the innovation cycle such that adoption of the technology is associated with higher risks in technical as well as economic terms. Second, a less mature technology tends to be produced in smaller quantity with less opportunity for learning by experience; so, it tends to be more expensive. Third, and most importantly, unlike its established counterpart, the radically new technology is not, and may not be able to be, adapted to the existing technical standards and regulatory regime (Zundel et al. 2005). In the field of wastewater management the contrast between established and radically new technology is best exemplified by the relationship between central and decentralized wastewater treatment. In the Elbe region, like elsewhere in Germany, the central wastewater infrastructure represents the dominant technical paradigm, which, in compliance with the restrictive regulatory regime, guarantees the high quality of wastewater treatment. On the other hand, the high wastewater treatment standards are associated with high costs, when applied generally without regard to the specific circumstances. Due to the long sewers required to connect households, especially in rural areas, investment costs tend to make up a large proportion of the total cost. In general, fixed costs represent 75 percent of the total cost of wastewater treatment. Once invested, these costs will be lowered for the lifetime of the sewerage that is 50 years and more. From this perspective, the operators of the central sewerage are not in favor of competing (including decentralized) alternatives, when the capacity of their existing facilities is not exhausted. Although the bodies in charge of wastewater collection and treatment (that is, the communities) are public and therefore not subject to private competition, major cost increases cannot easily be passed on to the households for political reasons. Therefore, they try hard to reimburse their costs including a legal obligation of the households to be connected to, and to use the central sewerage. Evidently, this undermines private engagement in favor of decentralized alternatives like SWTP that show comparable performance and are in many circumstances much cheaper than the central sewerage. Where such obstacles do not exist, SWTP are I Germany officially considered as an equivalent alternative to central sewerage since 2002 (Supplement 1 of the Wastewater Ordinance). 70

71 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Against this background, the findings of Sartorius et al. (2008) concerning the potentially positive effect of an extended implementation of SWTP and SRD on the reduction of nutrient emissions in natural water bodies gain an additional significance. Until recently, the existence of SWTP was restricted to small niches and where they existed, considerable attempts were made to further reduce their quantity (compare the results of our survey in Sartorius/Hillenbrand 2007). Only now reconsideration seems to be gaining momentum. In some federal German states in the Elbe basin with many SWTP or septic tanks in operation, governments are forced by the EU Urban Wastewater Directive to repair or replace the existing facilities. As most of these facilities are located in the more remote parts of the country and connection to a central sewerage would tend to be very expensive, the governments of these states seem to recognize the potential of a decentralized wastewater management and adapt their legislation such that an engagement of communities and households in the decentralized technology is much facilitated (MLUR 2001; SMUL 2007; UMV 2007). At this point in time, these activities appear to contribute to the increase of niches that formerly tended to become smaller. Even in the long run, decentralized technologies will be far from a substitute for the centralized alternatives completely. However it is important that existing niches are now allowed to expand at least to some extent, because the learning processes taking place during the niche expansion will probably give rise to improvements with regard to cost and technical performance, such that the future potential of this technology will be further expanded. After a while, both central sewerage and SWTP may be competitors on a level playing field, with each of them prevailing under the respectively favorable conditions. With the INNUWIM model, the latter development is to be followed up to the year Currently, only the initial part of the development may have become evident. However, modeling the development will allow for predictions concerning the magnitude of the changes and, more importantly, the regional focal points of the development. In order to identify these regions more clearly, we make use of the expected synergy effects between two innovations jointly characterizing by the decentralized management of wastewater and storm water. In the central sewerage system both wastewater and storm water are collected and treated centrally in the wastewater treatment plants and in various supplementary devices such as storm water overflow or sedimentation tanks. In the decentralized regime, SWTP represents only one part of the story. The cleaned wastewater and collected storm water need to be disposed of somewhere and the collected storm water additionally needs to be cleaned. A decentralized approach that nicely complements SWTP and solves most of these remaining problems is storm water infiltration and unsealing the ground the two elements of SRD. Unsealing the ground avoids the collection of storm water in the first place, and infiltration can be used to dispose of cleaned wastewater or storm water of which the collection is unavoidable. 71

72 ERSEC conference proceeding In order to identify those regions where a transition toward decentralized wastewater and storm water management are most probable, two indices derived from the INNUWIM model are used jointly: the increase in persons connected to SWTP (relative to the total population) and the increase in the sum of infiltrated and unsealed area (relative to the total sealed area). The results for both indices are shown in figure 2 (a and c). Since it is assumed that just the combination of SWTP and SRD represents a reasonable basis for decentralized wastewater and storm water treatment, a composed index was reconstructed by the multiplication of the two above-mentioned indices. The multiplicative composition was chosen in order to make sure that both aspects (SWTP and SRD) make a significant contribution, and that no strong aspect of one can compensate for the weakness of the respective other, as would be the case after addition.1 Figure 2 (b) shows the regional distribution of the composed index. Figure 2: Regional focal points of the transition from central to decentralized wastewater and storm water management. The general tendency (b) is yielded from the multiplicative combination of the diffusion tendencies of SWPT (a) and SRD measures (c) It is evident that the regional developments of both SWTP and SRD show specific points of focus, some of which they hold in common, some are different. The significant differences between SWTP (focal point in Thuringia) and SRD (focal point in Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein) emphasize that SWTP and SRD are indeed independent aspects of decentralized wastewater and storm water management. The regional overlap of focal points in Brandenburg and Western Pomerania on the other hand shows that an unambiguous focal point for the development of a decentralized wastewater and storm water management exists. Although, due to the longevity of the established central sewerage system and its institutional background, the hints we find for the emergence of a decentralized alternative in the time period until 2020 are not yet very clear. The potential for such a shift is definitely strongest in the regions identified. 1 Note that the composed index represents a pure index without specific contextual meaning. 72

73 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Acknowledgements The authors thank the German federal ministry for education and research for granting the project GLOWA-Elbe (FKZ: 01LW0308) and the Forschungsdatenzentrum der Statistischen Landesämter (especially in Stuttgart) and the River Basin Community Elbe for providing the data necessary for the model. References 1. Böhm, E; Hillenbrand, T; Liebert, J; Schleich, J; Walz, R (2002): Kosten-Wirksamkeitsanalyse von nachhaltigen Maßnahmen im Gewässerschutz. UBA-Texte 12-02, Berlin: UBA 2. Bundesverband der deutschen Gas- und Wasserwirtschaft (BGW) et al. (ed.) (2005): Branchenbild der deutschen Wasserwirtschaft 2005, Bonn: Wirtschafts- und Verlagsgesellschaft Gas und Wasser 3. David, PA (1985): Clio and the Economics of QWERTY, American Economic Review, 75 (2): Destatis (2006): Umwelt Öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserbeseitigung Fachserie 19 Reihe 2.1, Wiesbaden: Statistisches Bundesamt 5. Dosi, G (1982): Technological Paradigms and Technological trajectories: A Suggested Interpretation of the Determinants and Directions of Technical Change, Research Policy 6: Hahn, HH; Fuchs, S; Xanthopoulos, C (2000): Niederschlagsbedingte Schmutzbelastung der Gewässer aus städtischen befestigten Flächen - Endbericht. Institut für Siedlungswasserwirtschaft, Universität Karlsruhe 7. Hattermann, F.F.; Krysanova, V.; Wechsung, F. (2005): Folgen von Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderungen für den Landschaftswasserhaushalt und die landwirtschaftlichen Erträge im Gebiet der deutschen Elbe, in Wechsung, F., Becker, A., and Gräfe, P. (Hrsg.): Integrierte Analyse der Auswirkungen des Globalen Wandels auf Wasser, Umwelt und Gesellschaft im Elbegebiet: Berlin, Weissensee 8. Hillenbrand, T; Hiessl, H. (2006): Sich ändernde Planungsgrundlagen für Wasserinfrastruk-- tursysteme. Teil 1: Klimawandel, demographischer Wandel und neue ökologische Anforderungen. KA Abwasser Abfall 53 (12/2006): Hillenbrand, T; Hiessl, H. (2007): Sich ändernde Planungsgrundlagen für Wasserinfrastruktursysteme. Teil 2: Technologischer Fortschritt und sonstige Veränderungen. KA Abwasser Abfall 54 (1/2007): Hoymann, J; Dekkers, J; Koomen, E (2008): Szenarien der Siedlungsflächenentwicklung im Elbeeinzugsgebiet. In Wechsung, F; Hartje, V; Kaden, S; Behrendt, H; Hansjürgens, B; Gräfe, P (Hrsg.): Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet - Risiken und Optionen. PIK-Report 111, Potsdam, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.v., in press 11. Kemp, R; Schot, J; Hoogma, R (1998): Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: the approach of strategic niche management. Technology Analysis & 73

74 ERSEC conference proceeding Strategic Management 10 (2): Koziol, M.; Veit, A.; Walther, J. (2006): Stehen wir vor einem Systemwechsel in der Wasserver- und Abwasserentsorgung? Sektorale Randbedingungen und Optionen im stadttechnischen Transformationsprozess. Forschungsverbund networks (Hrsg.), Heft 22, Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik 13. Leinweber, U; Schmitt, TG (2000): Untersuchungen zur Versickerung und Regenwasserbehandlung in ländlichen Gemeinden. KA-Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser, Abfall 47 (9/2000): Londong, D (1999): Die finanzielle Seite. Kosten und Finanzierung. In: Londong D, Nothnagel A (Ed.): Bauen mit dem Regenwasser. München: Oldenbourg Industrieverlag 15. MLUR (Ministeriums für Landwirtschaft, Umweltschutz und Raumordnung des Landes Brandenburg) (2001): Richtlinie über die Gewährung von Finanzhilfen für die Förderung von Abwasseranlagen, Teil 2: Kleinkläranlagen, vom Nakicenovic, N; Swart, R (2000): Emission Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press 17. Sartorius, C; Hillenbrand, T. (2007): Abwasserentsorgungstechnologie im Elbegebiet Bestand und Entwicklung. KA Abwasser Abfall 55 (4/2007): Sartorius, C; Hillenbrand, T; Walz, R. (2008): Modellierung der Wirkung und Kosten von Maßnahmen zur Reduktion der abwasserbedingten Nährstoffemissionen im deutschen Elbegebiet, in Wechsung, F; Hartje, V; Kaden, S; Behrendt, H; Hansjürgens, B; Gräfe, P (Hrsg.): Wirkungen des globalen Wandels auf den Wasserkreislauf im Elbegebiet - Risiken und Optionen. PIK-Report 111, Potsdam, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung e.v., in press 19. Sartorius, C; Zundel, S (Eds.): Time Strategies, Innovation and Environmental Policy. Cheltenham (UK): Edward Elgar 20. SMUL (Sächsisches Staatsministeriums für Umwelt und Landwirtschaft) (2007): Richtlinie zur Förderung von Maßnahmen der Siedlungswasserwirtschaft (Förderrichtlinie Siedlungswasserwirtschaft RL SWW/2007) vom 2. März UMV (Umweltministerium Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) (2007): Richtlinie zur Förderung von Kleinkläranlagen (FöRi-KKA), Bekanntmachungen vom 25. November 2003 und (in Neuauflage) 29. Oktober Wolf, M; Milojevic, N (2000): Ermittlung der Abkopplungspotenziale in der öffentlichen Kanalisation durch dezentrale Niederschlagswasserbeseitigung. KA-Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser Abfall 47 (10/2000): Zundel, S; Erdmann, G; Kemp, R; Nill, J; Sartorius, C; Weiner, D (2005): Conceptual framework, in Sartorius C, Zundel S (Eds.): Time Strategies, Innovation and Environmental Policy. Cheltenham (UK): Edward Elgar, pp

75 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Research on the System of Field Property Right in the Chinese Countryside 中国农村土地所有权制度改革初探 Cui Tiening Beijing University of Technology Abstract The paper research on the situation of field recourse utilization in China, analyzes different development and management methods on field recourse in our country, putting forward the main shortage of field property system in Chinese countryside. Then through comparing the different methods of field property system reform,gives a point that we can, in various ways, gradually move to push on the reform of the field property system in China, which would be more in accord with the condition of our country. The reform of the countryside field property system will be based on improving and perfecting the using property system, diversifying the owner of field property and the turnover ways of using property. In addition, the countryside field property reform should be fit in with the needs of legislation and political system reform in China. 摘要论文通过对我国目前土地资源开发利用现状的研究, 在分析我国农村土地产权制度现状与缺陷的基础上, 对各种农村土地产权制度改革思路进行比较, 认为多元化, 渐进式的改革才符合我国现阶段国情 农村土地产权制度改革要在建立完整稳定使用权制度的基础上, 因地制宜, 实行产权主体和使用权流转方式的多样化 同时, 农村土地产权制度改革应该与政治体制改革和立法完善相配套 1 Introduction Earth is an important natural resource for the subsistence and development of humankind. Along with population increase and economic development, the demand for field resource keeps rising and the supply of it remains unsatisfied. This situation warns us of the great impact its consequences will bring to society. After several transformations since the founding of the People s Republic of China, our nation has adopted The Collective Ownership and Household Contract Responsibility System of Land in Chinese rural areas. The great innovation on the ownership system of China in the 1980s directly associated hard work with the gaining of surplus value while instituting an incentive regime which has largely enthusiastic farmers, emancipated the 75

76 ERSEC conference proceeding productive force and brought substantive economic development in rural areas. 2 Status Quo and Its Handicaps The Collective Ownership and Household Contract Responsibility System of Land are characterized by the following properties: (1) the rural land ownership belongs to the village farmers collectively. The farmer union, in accordance with the law, has the right to organize and re-adjust field recourses. (2) under the guarantee that the interests of state and collective is promised contractors (or farmers) can obtain an average allocation, according to the proportion of the population to land, through contracts and other forms, where conditions permit. (3) our nation strictly controls the right of contractual operation of land. The fields in rural area are owned collectively. In accordance to the existing Constitution, General Principles of Civil Law and Land Management Law, the land exclusively belongs to the farmers union. Only with village collective identity, does the villager have his right to possess, use, and dispose the land recourses. Unfortunately, this mechanism led to a paradoxical condition that all the people seemingly own the land, but no single one actually does. The proprietorship is a completed form of the right in things, with which the owner can completely enforce his right to possess, use, yield and dispose his property. In the light of this statement, comparing the state land ownership with the collective land ownership, it is so inconsistent that, in accordance with this ownership system, the villagers committee has to perform both the administrative right and its obligation as an economic entity, though it should be a type of administration but not an economic entity. In that the actual land administration system remains confused and disordered. To the farmers, the contractual right is relatively restrictive while inconsistent, and the ownership is a claim rather than a proper right which is non-inclusive and insecure. Generally speaking, the existing land ownership shows three main defects: (1) The subject of the land rights is unclear. Firstly, it is difficult to distinguish the state land ownership from collective land ownership. The villagers union, in fact, does not have a complete land ownership. That is to say, it is still the state that has the right to administrate and control the field recourses. Secondly, it is hard to tell what the subject of collective land ownership is. Though the existing law entitles the villagers union the right to possess its land recourses, how to define the word villagers union remains uncertain. Thus the uncertainty of the subject of property leads to the disequilibrium between the income and the cost of an economic entity. When the collective land owning right is impinged upon, the farmers could hardly find anyone to speak for their rights, to protect their interests and to guard the cultivated land effectively. (2) As there is no sense of the claim of land, the farmers interests, for using and 76

77 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management disposing the land, are usually ignored or omitted. As the land also supports the social security system in rural areas, it is inevitable that the changes in population will change the period of a land contract. The stability of a land contract period is impacted. The land right also constantly changes. Local governments and various interest groups impinge upon the farmer s land owning rights by building up ostentatious projects in order to make a good impression or show their achievements, which is directly deconstructive for the ownership system. The operation of land property rights accents that without a proper circulation channel and system, with the circulation value being unpaid, the farmers will never share the interests of land appreciation. (3) The proper land right is uncertified, which means that the connotation, denotation, content, category and the rights and obligations of the land owner are all waiting to be defined. All the unclear aspects and incompleteness and instability of rights to use, run, make profit and dispose land result in disorder in land management. It is hard to protect the interest of relevant economic entities and to form an incentive mechanism for the realization of agricultural mechanization and of industrialized intensive land management. Hence, it is high time that our rural area land ownership was reformed. Yet the question is; what kind of reform idea can both meet our current need of emancipating productive forces in rural areas and match the fundamental realities of the country? 3 The Ideas of Reformation For rural land property rights system reform, scholars have put forward a number of programmes. These reform ideas in general can be summed up in three: (1) Some scholars are in favor of retaining the collective ownership of land with reform and improvement. They believe that land has always been treated as a major issue which affects the people s basic interests. Even though the reform of collective ownership of land is imperative, any dramatic campaign to change the practice of collective land ownership is not only undesirable but also dangerous. Therefore, academic study should mainly focus on the reservations to improve their collective ownership which is centered in the recognition of collective ownership of land. Under the premise of a clear concept of ownership and property rights innovation, the government should improve the household contract responsibility system, under specific circumstances around the implementation of the main diversification of property rights, liberate land use rights for land conservation and provide a circulation institutional basis. (2) To abolish the collective land ownership and enhance rural land privatization, the reform of rural households is to establish private ownership of farmland in the family. 77

78 ERSEC conference proceeding The starting point is to enable farmers to access the most rights to the land. Farmers land ownership, mortgage, inheritance, gifts, transfers, and so on, naturally form the land transfer market. If the public welfare in the country requires use of rural land, the owner must be notified in advance, and the compensation must be made in accordance with the market price. The idea of the privatization of rural collective land reform is unparalleled in some advantages: A. The privatization of land solves the problem of having no concrete main subject of a land owner. B. It prevents the farmers short-term predatory behavior and business practices and encourages farmers to maintain and improve the productivity of land for investment. C. It promotes the rational flow, in accordance with the principle of effective allocation of resources and hence benefits the development of the agricultural economies. D. It facilitates the migration from rural population to urban cities and changes China's urban-rural dual structure in return (3) Abolish the collective land ownership and nationalize the rural land use. The main theme is stressed that the country is the land owner to ensure its right in land use planning and management. Farmers are contracted on long-term stable and transferable ownership. After contracting the land it will not be increased or reduced by a change in population. The nationalized model, village committees, can only represent the nation in signing the contract but is not be able to change the contract period, the population and the volumes involved in the contract, or to charge any fee. The village committee can only act as an autonomous organization of farmers or the Farmer s Committee s rights and obligations. Land nationalization advocates claim that the village committee enjoys a dual identity as an administrator and an economic manager, which will lead to some speculation and make it difficult for village committees to truly act as spokesmen of the interests of collective farmers. The members of village committee may abuse their power and violate the interests of farmers. Therefore, the deprivation of a village committee s power in land owning and nationalization of land would be the best choice to protect the interests of farmers and clarify the subject of property rights. 4 Comparative Analyses on Innovative Thought The analysis that rural land privatization could not be carried out under the fundamental realities of China, and with the decades of history of the public sector of the economy may make the condition of land privatization not come true. Land privatization will bring a series of serious social issues such as: land annexation, extended wealth gap of rural areas,the problems of employment, residence, public security, and the other aspects. In addition, at the present moment, these deep-seated problems of the political system are not solved absolutely. Government power still having an effect on the market, and the concerned supporting laws of privatization could not be brought into 78

79 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management play a main role. In this regard, it s also difficult to safeguard lawful rights and interests for the farmers. The innovative thought of maintaining the collective land ownership and improving it, must regard the township government and Village Committee as equal powers hypothetically. The requisition land contract signed by representative and government must be in accordance with the farmers' profits as well as being unchanged by the administrative power. Furthermore, township government has the capability to arrange land use and respect the autonomy in management of farmers. Meeting the requirements of the hypothesis still has many barriers under the fundamental realities of the country In line with ideology and Marxism property rights theory with Chinese characteristics, the government ownership of land is the best choice of the reform for Village Land Property System. Nationalization of land is favorable to clarification of property rights and farmers may enjoy full use of land rights, which could avoid turbulences of reform. The most important consideration is that land is a non-renewable rare resource. Nationalization not only guarantees the whole planning and long-term management of territorial resources, but it could also realize the overall development and utilization of farmland and urban land, as well as achieve balanced development of industry and agriculture. 5 Enlightenment The methods which should be taken into consideration for the reformation of rural land property are as follows: (1) A stable and complete land use rights system should be established. The nation should improve the farmers enthusiasm to protect the land and the efficiency of land use through establishing a complete and perfect land management system, land circulation market etc. Only if the land use rights can be defined clearly can the dynamic circulation and proper allocation be realized. For the use rights, the principle of ecological benefit allowance can be adopted. (2) The reform of rural land property must be in accordance with the specific conditions of the area. In order to guarantee the protection and circulation of the land, such methods as diversifying the property owners and circulation methods, and making the use rights more flexible. This can put the farmers enthusiasm into full play, and can allow farmers in different areas to make a suitable system of development according to their environmental and production conditions. The policy of state owned, group owned, and privately owned land right exist side by side. 79

80 ERSEC conference proceeding (3) Conducting the land management system reformation requires transforming the government functions. Restraining the behavior of the local government and changing the position of farmers, make the land property issues clear and oriented to the land recourse market. The local government must move away from land training, and devote itself to the reallocation of the land. This can prove that the government function is correct, and hence protect farmers benefits. (4) Enforcing and improving land legislation would harmonize the relationship between the law and the land owning system. In our nation the level of violation of the current land laws is disturbingly high. There is only a strict land-exploit-approve law, but no relevant rules to control the administration of the government. There are only laws to protect the realization of public interest but no laws to protect the realization of the farmers needs for land. The current land legislation is neither specific nor stable and some of them conflict with existing laws. In conclusion, it is highly needed that all the duties and rights of land owners should be reflected by laws in order to regulate its exploiting, circulation and compensation, etc All the duties and rights of the administrators should be regulated, defined by laws; and the judicial system reformation should be enforced to provide farmers with more legal services. 6 Perorations The essence of all Chinese problems is farmers problems, and the essence of all farmers problems is land conflicts. The current specific conditions of our country indicate that the current land owning system should be gradually reformed and diversified. The current land owning system should be based on the specific definition of ownership and farmers should be given more specific, complete and stable rights to use their land in order to improve the effective use and proper appropriation of land resources. Furthermore, during the process of industrialization and urbanization, a healthy and complete social security system, a political restructuring and other coordinated measures are of importance. In the light of this statement, the issue of a land owing system in rural areas is not only an agricultural issue but an economic issue and a significant issue relevant to economical politics and society. 80

81 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Sustainable Development of Riparian Forests by Technical Measurements a Case Study of Integrated Land Use Management and Water Management between Neuburg and Ingolstadt, Bavaria/Germany 河岸带森林可持续发展的技术途径 德国巴伐利亚州诺伊堡和英戈尔斯塔特市的综合土地利用和水资源管理案例研究 Bernd Cyffka Floodplain Institute of Neuburg Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt Schloss Greunau Abstract During the first half of the 19th century works started to embank on the main parts of the Upper Danube completely. Since that time the river has flowed in dikes, normally without any contact with its floodplain and the riparian areas. Overall this brought advantages to the population. It was possible to use the former wetlands for settlements, agriculture and forestry. After several decades typical floodplain and wetlands features became invisible no oxbows, no softwood riparian forest, and no shallow waters with the corresponding fauna and flora. The interconnection between river and floodplain had diminished not part of its surrounding natural and cultural landscape anymore. The second half of the 20th century brought the construction of hydroelectric power stations in the form of large barrages. Since this time the migration of fish was stopped. The Upper Danube was/is more or less a human managed canal. Currently the floodplains are experiencing a revival in the thinking of the population. Unfortunately many parts of vulnerable riparian areas have diminished, and with the Bavarian Floodplain Programme the search for suitable (floodable) areas began in The largest joint part was found with the riparian forests between Neuburg and Ingolstadt. In November 2005 the Bavarian Minister for the Environment dug the first turf to start a 13 million Euro pilot project named Restoration of riparian areas on the Danube floodplain between Neuburg and Ingolstadt. In the future about 2,100 hectares of forests will be used 81

82 ERSEC conference proceeding for both artificial human-controlled flooding to improve biodiversity in the riparian forest and the flood meadows and to serve as flood storage in case of disastrous floods. The contribution will demonstrate the natural basis of the pilot project, the technical preconditions and especially the technical buildings to steer the flooding, and the hopes of authorities and environmental associations connected with the project. The scientific application is carried out by the newly founded Floodplain Institute Neuburg whose future task will be to spread the results on a national and international level. There are very special conditions to overcome in this dammed environment. The pilot project is in the phase of erecting the weirs and other technical buildings for the bypass which will bring a permanent flow of water (up to 5 m 3 /s) to the floodplain. As a result of this, a new river will develop on the floodplain partly flowing in old oxbows, and partly eroding its way naturally. Together with the controlled flooding (up to 30 m 3 /s during peak discharge of the Danube),groundwater dynamics will improve and the growing of typical riparian species will be possible. A long-term monitoring plan for selected species in special transects is under construction and ready for discussion. Apart from the mentioned benefits and technical singularity of the pilot project is scientifically very exciting because it is a unique and large zoological, botanical and morphological field experiment which can serve as a case study for other restoration measures on river floodplains in dammed-up environments. 摘要在十九世纪下半叶, 多瑙河上游的筑堤工作全面开始进行 从这个时期开始, 河流流淌在岸堤内, 不再对河漫滩与河岸带地区造成影响 这样主要使居民受益, 使原来的湿地转变成居住地 农耕地和森林成为可能 自此几十年后, 典型的湿地和河漫滩地貌特征消失了 河岸针叶林 适于动植物生存的狭窄河道 牛角湾等不复存在 河流与河漫滩相互影响已减少 河流流过似外来文化通过一个本地文化景观 20 世纪下半叶建设的水电站形成了巨大的拦河坝 从此, 鱼类洄游也随之停止了 多瑙河上游渐渐成为人工管理的水道 如今, 人们正在努力恢复河漫滩地区 不幸的是, 始于 2002 年在巴伐利亚进行的适宜洪积地区调查发现, 在脆弱的河岸带有许多这样的地区已萎缩 在诺伊堡和英戈尔斯塔特市发现了最大的河岸带森林结合处 2005 年 11 月, 巴伐利亚环境部长提出了一项 13 亿欧元的示范项目 : 诺伊堡和英戈尔斯塔特市之间多瑙河泛滥平原河岸带恢复项目 未来将有大约 2,100 公顷森林, 用于人工控制洪水来促进河岸带森林和防洪区的生物多样性, 并为灾难性洪水提供洪水蓄积区 本文将探索示范项目的自然条件, 技术前提 尤其是驾驭洪水的技术设施, 以及与项目计划相关的管理部门及环境机构的期望 最近刚成立的诺伊堡泛滥平原研究所正在实施科学研究 他们未来的目标是在国家和国际的层面传播研究结果 已筑坝的环境下存在非常特殊的情况需要克服 示范项目正处于通过建设导流坝及其他技术设 82

83 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 施产生到达泛滥平原的持续水流 ( 流速可达 5 m 3 /s) 的阶段 这将导致在泛滥平原形成的新河流部分流入过去的牛角湾, 另有一部分则以自然方式侵蚀河道 这部分水流, 再加上已被控制的洪水 ( 多瑙河最大径流可达 30m 3 /s) 将提高地下水的运动, 典型河岸物种的生长将成为可能 对特殊断面选择研究物种的长期监测计划正在筹备讨论中 除了上述的好处和技术特点, 该示范项目具有绝对令人振奋的科学性, 因为这是一项独特的, 大范围的动物学 植物学和形态学的野外实验, 它可以为其他筑坝环境下河流泛滥平原的恢复措施提供案例研究 1 Introduction It is common knowledge that man contributes to landscape changes. However, often the extent of these changes is not clear nor their consequences. Especially significant are the changes of European floodplains. In Germany, these changes started at the beginning of the 19 th century. People did not want to accept the river s natural restrictions, and so began the embankment of rivers such as the Rhine and the Danube. Restrictions were the frequent flooding that made it impossible to use this land for settlements and agriculture. This was (and is) the classical concurrence of space: nature vs. man. At the beginning, man was victorious. Embankment and straightening efforts on rivers showed positive effects, and rivers and floodplains were separated as far as their hydraulic and ecologic connections were concerned. During those times people ignored the effects of these changes because of other priorities. But times have changed, and it is now necessary to correct past mistakes. The previous method of coping with nature is demonstrated by figure 1, using the example of the area between Neuburg and Ingolstadt in Germany. Figure 1: Historic map of the Danube floodplain from The modern change of the river course is shown in blue. The corrections to the Danube River are visible as a blue band in figure 1. Today, the former river path is nearly invisible. In the early 1970s two barrages (Bergheim in the west and Ingolstadt in the east of fig. 1) were built. From that time the Danube gushed through its river bed, with virtually no hydraulic contact with the floodplain and the 83

84 ERSEC conference proceeding riparian areas. No water was left for the terrestrial-aquatic biotope. There are ha of riparian forest in this area one of the largest coherent riparian forests in Europe. It is owned and managed by the Duke of Bavaria, and also suffers from these changes. The lack of water in the floodplain made forestry more lucrative. Non-riparian tree species were planted, but luckily the forest management kept some natural areas as well. Therefore, the riparian forest between Neuburg and Ingolstadt did not completely change from a natural to a cultural landscape. The question is how to remedy the floodplains of today (fig. 2), as well as determining the final goal of the remediation (DISTER 1992; HÜGIN & HENRICHFREISE 1992). Is it sensible to seek to achieve the noble goal of restoring the former natural floodplain? It may be sensible, but in most cases it is not possible because of the aforementioned reasons. Figure 2: The current floodplain between Neuburg and Ingolstadt (large green area in the middle). Satellite image from MRSid data base. Orthorectified Landsat ETM+ mosaics, band combination 7-4-2, sharpened with panchromatic band, pixel size m The main goal of restoration in this case is to bring more dynamics to the existing floodplain. The focus will be on dynamics of the groundwater level, the water surface and the water courses, and to the morphological features such as sand and gravel banks, and the waterside itself. Therefore, the hydrological processes are targeted as the most importance elements. Nearly everything in a natural floodplain is related to hydrological processes and is connected hydraulically. If one is able to use water as an adjusting element many other related features (e.g. vegetation) will adjust themselves after a certain period. 2 Measurements On November 21, 2005, the Bavarian Minister for the Environment, Health, and Consumer Protection dug the first turf for the 11 million project named Remediation of riparian areas on the Danube floodplain between Neuburg and Ingolstadt. 84

85 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The riparian forests in this area will experience significant changes over the next several years. The plan is to install two weirs in the Danube dikes (see fig. 3 and 4). The first one will permanently discharge m 3 /sec into a former riverbed of the Danube. The riverbed is not continuous over its complete length, so the scientific exciting situation is to determine the path for the water. The question is which role erosion and accumulation will play. Of course there will be some initial investigation to pre-determine the main course of this new river from former ox-bow to ox-bow, but that is all. Nature will direct the details. Figure 3: Technical sketch of the Danube bypass weir This will not only be the reactivation of the former Danube River course; it will simultaneously bypass the Bergheim hydro power station (figure 4). In this new part, the Danube River will be open again for migrating fish. It is only a first step because the other hydro power stations of Bittenbrunn, Ingolstadt, are still impermeable, but it is a step in the right direction. The bypass is controllable, so it is possible to imitate natural conditions, e.g., during summer at low water there will be a 85

86 ERSEC conference proceeding water emission of only 0.5 m 3 /sec. This will give back dynamics to the new side river, and fauna and flora will have to adapt to this. But 0.5 m 3 /sec is the minimum discharge, and of course, it will not be completely drained so that fish can migrate throughout the year. Figure 4: Project area and location of the planned weirs, the bypass and the area of ecological floodings Nevertheless, the bypass will not create conditions that are characteristic of a dynamic flood plain. To generate this, it is necessary to have frequent floods. This will be made possible by the second weir (fig.4), and ecological flooding (some prefer the expression controlled flooding ) will result. If the water level in the Danube is high enough (more than 600 m 3 /sec), statistically 2-3 times a year, about 30.0 m 3 /sec can be discharged from the Danube into the floodplain, and especially into the riparian forests. The ecological flooding will cause a band of water that accompanies the bypass and brings more water as well as more groundwater dynamics to the floodplain. The floods will last 5 to 10 days, depending on the conditions (soil moisture) in the preceding weeks. It is important not to dam the water, but to have flowing conditions. The water will be led through the riparian area, and the portion that is not able to seep away will be fed back into the Danube by two extra weirs. After the flooding, the water will saturate the soil in the riparian forest for several weeks, and will contribute to the groundwater sources, and the groundwater table will rise. With this action, it might be possible to reestablish corresponding biotopes. However, achieving nature-like softwood forests along the bypass, which were characterized by poplars, willows, and alders, is a long process. The construction will continue up to 2008 and the hope of all participants involved in the project (Water Management Authority Ingolstadt (in charge), the district of Neuburg-Schrobenhausen, 86

87 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management cities of Ingolstadt and Neuburg, University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt and the newly founded Floodplain Institute Neuburg) can expect the first water deposit on the floodplain in During this time the restoration protocol will be set up by the Floodplain Institute Neuburg. This protocol will follow certain planning approval procedure guidelines but has several possibilities to be adapted for the purpose of scientific research. Over the next two years the Floodplain Institute Neuburg will look for project partners to install sophisticated research projects. As an incentive, it offers one of the largest outdoor test sites with outstanding research possibilities. The advantages and scientific benefits of the ecological flooding and the bypass elements of this project are based on the fact that the weirs work as an adjusting screw. This makes the project one of the largest field experiments in Germany. Depending on frequency, duration, and quantity, the water let into the floodplain can possibly influence the conditions of moisture. However, this will cause partly anaerobic conditions in the soil and at the roots of the trees at least for several days, and the delicate trees will soon die. Conservationists say: Okay, so what?, but the forests are owned by the Wittelsbacher Ausgleichfonds (a public corporation to support the former Bavarian Royal House) and are managed by its Forest Management Department. They have an economic interest in keeping the trees alive and growing, and that is the crux of the matter. On the one hand, good conditions exist for a long-term scientific experiment for nature conservation, re-establishment of riparian forests and floodplain meadows; while on the other hand, a forest company seeks maximum benefit. The Floodplain Institute Neuburg/Danube was founded in January 2006 for the implementation of monitoring under scientific conditions. A co-operative contract with the Catholic University of Eichstaett-Ingolstadt ensured scientific linkages and personal security. The topics of research are multifarious. There are the main fields of vegetation, soil, and water and it will be most exciting to see the change in these fields. Therefore, the status quo was registered during the last year, and these works will last until Finally, there will be detailed information on the trees next to the new water course, the morphologic basis of this water course, as well as on the soil and sediments in and next to it. A selection of the main research, restoration and monitoring questions are: What species of trees are able to tolerate the future moister environment? Will it be young or old trees that die first or that will survive (MARGRAF 2004)? What is the detailed course of the new river? Will it follow former routes, old oxbow structures, or will erosion be the main factor and the river will form a new bed? What will be the amount of sediment transported in this situation by about ±2.5 m 3 /sec discharge? What will happen if a hidden ancient gravel bank is eroded? Will the water start to 87

88 ERSEC conference proceeding diminish into the ground? What about groundwater dynamics (KIENER 1984)? One goal of the project is to foster groundwater dynamics. Will this come true and to what extent? Will the beaver not rare in this area use the new environmental conditions to spread? What about the mosquitoes? Will they become a plague in the vicinity? These questions reflect only a part of what needs to be considered after the flooding. The milestones to evaluate the success of the operation will be both the technical creation of the bypass and the ecological flooding, as well as the measurable groundwater dynamics. The gauging stations will show whether there is a major improvement. If there is a development in direction of morphological dynamics, sand and gravel banks and several flooding a year, the natural environment will benefit and gradually adapt to the new conditions. However, nobody is really able to say yet to what extent. The goal is to mimic natural conditions. Several people ask whether it is sensible to just let nature do it. But what is the alternative? This is a unique chance to let nature take control again. Shall we intervene and restrict nature and start to shape the landscape similar to previous decades? Of course it is not possible to let nature do it everywhere in our cultural landscape, but in this case it is, and we will see to what extent nature is able to come back. Of course the author is a scientist and curious about the outcome of this outdoor test. So there are already some modelling approaches especially in the direction of the river course and the water surface of the ecological flooding (figure 5). Figure 5: Modelled ecological flooding water surface 2.5 m above the channel line, western part of the project area. The flooded area is shown in blue Laser scanning data LVG Bayern. 88

89 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The results clearly differ from what was given in the planning approval procedure, but there are several superimposing processes erosion and accumulation in the bypass river course, ecological flooding, natural flooding from which the particular effects cannot be modelled. So each modelling approach is just an approach. The final results will be determined by natural conditions. Furthermore, there is the old conflict between economy and ecology. Will it be possible to keep a modern forest alive in the area of the hardwood riparian forests (KOOP 1986)? It will not be possible to pay for compensation for the entire area owned by the Wittelsbacher Ausgleichsfonds. So the steering of discharge from the bypass and the ecological flooding has to happen carefully and must take both ecology and economy into consideration. At least in this area, but probably in the whole of Europe and most other parts of the world, it is not possible to roll back the centuries. Humankind is active in many areas and we have to balance out the interests of all people living there. 3 Summaries In the interest of conversation and flooding, it is necessary to start the remediation of our rivers in Europe, even of dammed rivers such as the Danube. The article shows foreseen measurements in between Neuburg and Ingolstadt (Bavaria/Germany) which make it possible to restore the floodplain s former hydro-, morpho- and bio-dynamics. The recommended measurements are a bypass and ecological flooding to bring back parts of the former floodplain dynamics to this area. Acknowledgements Thanks go to the Water Management Authority of Ingolstadt in charge of the project for making available the technical sketches and other useful information. Also thanks go to the Nature Conservation Group of Neuburg-Schrobenhausen District for technical and informational support. References 1. DISTER, E. (1992): Wissenschaftliche Erfahrungen aus Renaturierungsprojekten. Ber. Akademie Natur- und Umweltschutz Baden-Württemberg 13b: HÜGIN, G. & HENRICHFREISE, A. (1992): Naturschutzbewertung der badischen Oberrheinaue. Vegetation und Wasserhaushalt des rheinnahen Waldes. Schr. Vegetationskunde KIENER, J. (1984): Veränderungen der Auenvegetation durch die Anhebung des Grundwasserspiegels im Bereich der Staustufe Ingolstadt. Ber. Akad. Nat. Landschaftspflege 8: KOOP, H.G.J.M. (1986): Ecological monitoring of natural and semi-natural forests. In: Fanta, 89

90 ERSEC conference proceeding J. (eds.): Forest dynamics research in western and central Europe. Proceedings of the IUFRO workshop of subject group S ecosystems, Wageningen, The Netherlands, pp MARGRAF, C. (2004): Die Vegetationsentwicklung der Donauauen zwischen Ingolstadt und Neuburg: Vegetationskundliche Studie über den Wandel einer Auenlandschaft 30 Jahre nach Staustufenbau. Hoppea 65. Sketch and Photo Supplement Sketch A: Technical sketch of weir for ecological flooding. 90

91 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Sketch B: Technical sketch of the bridge of the bypass river over a natural stream (Laengenmuehlbach) 91

92 ERSEC conference proceeding Picture 1: Bergheim hydro power station The 6.0 m drop height of the water makes it impossible for fish and other species to migrate upstream Picture 2: View from Bergheim downstream. The course of the Danube looks like a canal,but not like a natural river 92

93 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Picture 3: Weir for bypass river. The main outlet (right, and picture below) is still under construction, but the vertical slot pass (left) for migrating species is already operating (cf Fig. 3) Picture 4: The main outlet of the bypass river (cf Figure. 3) 93

94 ERSEC conference proceeding Picture 5: Vertical slot pass for migrating species. Water depth in the pass is about 1.0 m (cf Fig. 3). Picture 6: An engineered river with nearly natural conditions in the continuation of the vertical slot pass 94

95 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Picture 7: Outlet weir for ecological flooding under construction. 30 m 3 /s will be discharged into the riparian forests of the Danube floodplain between Neuburg and Ingolstadt (cf Sketch A) Picture 8: View from the weir to the Danube River. The iron sheet pile cut off wall will be removed after finishing construction works 95

96 ERSEC conference proceeding Picture 9: Bridge of the bypass river of the Längenmühlbach (cf Sketch B) Picture 10: Bridge of the bypass river of the Längenmühlbach, view from the bridge (cf Sketch B) 96

97 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Regional Economic Effects of the Water Framework Directive in the Emsland 德国爱姆斯兰水资源政策的地区性国民经济效应 Holger Bergmann University of Goettingen Abstract With the directive 2000/60/EC the European Union established a framework for the community in the field of water policy with the purpose to protect and preserve water resources across the European Union to ensure future sustainable use (EC 2000). One of the immediate large scale land using measures is that the framework adds to the already existing land losses (e.g., by building infrastructure, industrial estates and housing) for agriculture. While the environmental benefits as well as the micro economic benefits, e.g., for water producers and the consumers, are well established, there is a lack of knowledge of what the regional economic effects of the water framework are. By employing the Generation of Regional Input Output Tables (GRIT) method, an Input- Output Table (IO) for the year 2004 was calculated and used with three scenarios. These scenarios are compared to a main baseline scenario to analyze the regional effects of a likely implementation of the water framework directive in a case study area (the Emsland, a region in the North of Germany). The main baseline scenario was defined as a prolongation of the current trends, namely structural changes in the local economy and demography. Three different scenarios shown are related to the revocation of (1) Utilised agricultural area (UAA) decreases by 5% while tourism demand increases, due to the better recreation quality of the landscape, by 5% (2) UAA decreases 10 % while tourism demand increases, due to the better recreation quality of the landscape, by 10% (3) UAA decreases by 25% while tourism demand increases, due to the better recreation quality of the landscape, by 25%. The results are discussed in terms of regional Gross Value Added, labour market demand and demographics. 97

98 ERSEC conference proceeding 摘要欧盟通过指令 2000/60/EC 为成员国制定了一个法律框架, 在这个法律框架下实行水资源保护 政策, 以达到水资源可持续利用的目标 其中的一项直接的大规模土地利用措施是将已经存在的农业 土地流失 ( 如基础设施建设, 工业用地, 住宅用地 ) 纳入这个框架中 同时, 对于水资源的生产者和消费者的环境利益和和微观经济也在此框架下很好的建立起来, 但对于水资源框架下的地区经济效果的了解很处于滞后状态 通过采用 区域性输入输出量表 的方法可以计算出 2004 年的输入输出量, 以三种模式加以利用 这些模式同主要的基线模式进行比较, 可以分析出在案例研究地区 ( 德国北部的爱姆斯兰 ) 水框架指标实施对该地区产生的影响 主要基线模式被定义为当前趋势, 也就是当地经济和人口结构性变化趋势的延伸 三种模式显示了下面的变化 : 1. 耕地面积减少 5%, 由于景观质量的提升, 旅游需求增加 5% 2. 耕地面积减少 10%, 由于景观质量的提升, 旅客需求增加 10%, 3. 耕地面积减少 25%, 由于景观质量的提升, 旅客需求增加 25% 结果的讨论以新创造的资本总值, 劳动力市场, 人口统计这类指数为依据 1 Introduction The European Water Framework Directive aims to protect and improve the quality of aquatic ecosystems. For river basins the directive demands the development of measure programs, management plans and strategies to avoid the water pollution caused by nutrients and other harmful matters. Basically the impact of the measures taken - from a farmers perspective - are compulsory extensification production systems, changing profitable arable lands to less profitable grassland use and in some cases even abandonment of any use at all by 2010, so as to protect the ground as well as surface waters (cf. Kersebaum et al., 2003). The rationale of the measures is based on the evidence that nitrogen leaching from arable land is a common environmental problem in many European countries (c.f. Kersebaum et al., 2003). Intensive agriculture is responsible for 55% of the non-pointsource pollution in Europe (Isermann and Isermann, 1995) and some 48% in surface waters in Germany (Isermann, 1990). Especially in rivers near landscapes, e.g., the Ems or the Elbe basins in North Germany, as well as in the Netherlands and Denmark, fast drainage is the dominant pathway for nitrogen into the water systems (Van der Molen et al., 1998). As other measures like nitrogen taxation or nitrogen quotas have been ruled out, legislative action was taken to ensure that environmental pollution was set to a minimum. Combining regional development with water management seemed to be 98

99 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management necessary to decrease nutrient emissions into river basins. Additionally, management plans have been considered as an effective strategy to reduce environmental pollution by nitrogen within river basins with respect to the limited financial framework. The aim of this case study is to assess the economic cost that several likely mitigation strategies will have for the regional farming sector, as well as for the economy and society in the Emsland. By employing a system-dynamics model containing three modules, namely, regional economy, regional farming sector and regional demography, the effects of mitigation scenarios are compared and policy implications are shown. 2 The Case Study Area 2.1 History Located in the North of Germany the Emsland is part of the federal state (Bundesland) Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen). Lower Saxony ranges from the heights of the Harz mountains over the fertile loess areas to the grassland dominated areas near the North Sea. It is mainly located, as its name suggests, directly along the River Ems, spreading along both sides of that river. The Emsland for Lower Saxony, with the majority of its people living near Oldenburg and Hanover, is a peripheral part of the Bundesland. It is centrally located in Europe between the industrial area of the Ruhr in Western Germany and the harbours of Hamburg as well as being near to the Dutch and Belgian borders. In some way it is part of the bigger region of Benelux. As a district in Lower Saxony, the Emsland is named after the river Ems. It is bounded by (from the north and clockwise) the districts of Leer, Cloppenburg and Osnabrück, the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the district of Kreisgrafschaft Bentheim and the Netherlands (provinces of Drenthe and Groningen) (see Emsland has a history of poverty, being known as the poorhouse of Germany until the mid 20th century, with rough living conditions for farmers due to poor sandy soils, swamps and moorland (Hachmöller and Schrader; 2002). As a result, inhabitants have developed a strong determination to free themselves from poverty and are in favour of any rural development measure that will provide jobs and income (Bryden and Hart; 2004). As a measure to support the regional economy after WWII, the Emsland-Plan, a comprehensive development plan, was set up by the federal government in 1950 turning the region into an industrial location. This was accomplished by large scale draining and establishing large scale industrial projects, e.g., a test track of the maglev "Transrapid", a world-leading shipyard for cruisers - the Meyer-Werft - and a number of small and medium locally owned enterprises as well as recently more and more service sector businesses (Schrader, 2002). 99

100 ERSEC conference proceeding In the Emsland plan a combination of financial assistance, immigration and local work ethic, proved vital for successful economic development and was even supported by the fostered strong local identity in Emsland (Schrader, 2002). Awareness of the marked poverty of the past and the catch-up process in the last 50 years has resulted in a remarkably positive attitude towards modernization and industrialization in Emsland. In Emsland, the industrial structure is quite diverse. The size of enterprises is relatively balanced, with a particularly high share of middle-sized firms, while the share of enterprises with more than 1000 employees is clearly below the regional average. The sectoral structure is diverse, with strongholds in the manufacturing sector, such as energy, chemicals, metal and vehicle production. Several investments which are space consuming or which were rejected in other areas because of environmental concerns were located in Emsland. In addition to a sound stock of domestic enterprises, there are large investments from other regions or countries. Overall, the area s economy has a relatively high share of exporting enterprises, which provides additional income and economic stability. The mix of small- and medium-sized local and external enterprises in varied. Skill-intensive branches produce substantial ripple effects throughout the region, in terms of both outsourcing and the improvement of human capital (see for further explanations Bryden and Hart, 2004) Several industrial clusters are evident in Emsland. As an important vertical cluster we find shipbuilding suppliers around the Meyer shipyard in the North of the county. In the east and south of the area, clusters around the two production sites of Krone (a large supplier of agricultural machinery) can be identified. In the South of Emsland, a large energy cluster has developed, with a nuclear power station and one gas-driven power plant. Linked to this cluster is a chemical industry cluster, led by an oil refinery (Danielzyk, 1997). Furthermore, there are clusters of distilleries, and plastic and metal processing in the area. A good example of how determined the local actors are to develop their regional economy, is the current construction of a much needed motorway interface in Emsland. The project for the completion of an approximately 40 km gap in the A 31 motorway through joint local finance was initiated by the head of the Emsland county administration. The business sector of Emsland and adjacent counties, the chamber of commerce, neighbouring county administrations and the Netherlands were involved in co-financing this project. The local share of the costs of 70 million is much less than the expected local benefits of approximately 250 million. This kind of local prefinancing of the construction of a motorway was unprecedented in Germany. There are several other examples of development processes in Emsland which were fostered by the high degree of social capital between local actors, such as a number of large investments (e.g., Nordland Paper, Mercedes-Benz test route), and the success of the Emslandplan 100

101 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management (Schrader, 2002 as well as Bryden and Hart, 2004). 2.2 The Emsland in figures from 1997 to 2005 As Table 1 shows, agricultural land use in the Emsland comprises a higher share with 188,531 ha in 2005 (65%) than the average of lower Saxony (61%) with 2,897,943 ha. In both cases, over the period 1997 to 2005, agricultural area land use by agriculture has decreased by 2%. In contrast to this, the share of forests of 17% is lower than the Lower Saxon average of 21%, while the share of buildings and streets equals the Lower Saxon average. Nature protection sites (SSSIs) comprise a higher share of the landscape in the Emsland with 4% than the average in Lower Saxony with 3%. However, compared to the average share of FFH areas in Lower Saxony of 17%, in the Emsland only 3% are under that specific site protection. This huge difference can be explained by the fact that most FFH areas in Lower Saxony can be found off-shore and in forests and woodlands, and the Emsland has none of the former and few of the latter. It has to be mentioned at that point that even the 3% of FFH area since September 2008 have not been officially included into the official list as several lawsuits have been filed. As the table shows, land used by agriculture is considered less important because afforestation and infrastructural sites demand more land. Most importantly, over the reported period, built-up land (housing, roads, railways, etc.) gained 21% in importance. In absolute figures, afforestation due to abandonment and low profits in agriculture occurred. Table 1: Land use in Lower Saxony in comparison to the Emsland (2005) Lower Saxony Emsland 2005 (in ha) 2005 (in percent) change 1997 to (in ha) 2005 (in percent) change 1997 to 2005 Size 4,761,800 0% 288, % Forests 1,011,427 21% 1% 48,501 17% 1.6% Agricultural Land 2,897,943 61% -2% 188,531 65% -2.2% Buildings 332,812 7% 10% 18,580 6% 21.2% Streets 215,519 5% 2% 13,728 5% 4.4% SSSI 151,772 3% n/a 10,185 4% n/a FFH 790,000 17% n/a 7,700 3% n/a Source: Eurostat and NLS (2008) Regarding socio-economic indicators, the Emsland had a population of roughly 300,000 persons in Population was up between 1997 and 2005 by 4.2%. Population density in the Emsland is low with 106 persons per km² for Germany, a density that is quite common in that part of the region and well higher than that of peripheral areas (e.g., Northern Sweden or the Highlands of Scotland with less than 10). It can be expected that 101

102 ERSEC conference proceeding population density in the near future might be in line with the Lower Saxon average as population increases in the Emsland by a higher annual rate than in the rest of Lower Saxony. Net migration rates in Lower Saxony as well as in the Emsland, as a share of the total population, are equal. The population in the Emsland is based therefore on higher birth rates in the Emsland and lowered death rates compared to the federal states average. Furthermore, the annual net-migration of people as compared to, for example, UK figures shows that Germans are less mobile than their neighbours. That is, annual population turn-over in the UK can be nearly 5% (Bergmann and Thomson, 2006). Gross Value Added in the Emsland grew faster between 1997 and 2005, with 25% compared to that in Lower Saxony with 16%. Even though population increased during that time at a faster rate than in the federal state, CVA per capita increased more slowly, remaining at a 15% higher level than elsewhere in Lower Saxony. Due to the fact that in the last 30 years the economic development of the Emsland changed its economic position from the poor house of the country to one of the most flourishing areas, GDP was slightly higher than the Lower Saxon position with 111% of the EU average. Table 2: Socio-economic indicators in comparison of Lower Saxony and the Emsland (2003) Lower Saxony Emsland unit 2003 change 1997 change 1997 to 2003 to Population persons 7,993,415 2% 307, % Density (Inh./Km²) inh/km² % % net-migration (annual) persons 27,735-68% % Birth rate per 1,000 persons per 1,000 persons % % Death rate per 1,000 persons per 1,000 persons % 8.2 7% GVA in million Euro in Mill. Euro 183,672 16% 7, % GVA per capita in 1,000 in 1, GDP per inh. Of EU Average unit-less % % Source: Eurostat and NLS (2008) The share of economically active persons in the Emsland and Lower Saxon are quite similar with an average with 45 to 46%. While in Lower Saxony the absolute number of economically active persons grew over the period 1995 to 2005 by 5%, the increase was higher in the Emsland with nearly 10%. A sign of better economic performance of the Emsland than the overall federal state is also depicted by the fact that with 7.1% the unemployment rate in the Emsland it was 1.4% lower. This gap was to some extent reduced in the period 1999 to 2005 as over that period unemployment in absolute figures increased in the Emsland by a higher proportion than in Lower Saxony. 102

103 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management In Lower Saxony overall 3% of all employment was provided by the primary sector (including the provision of energy and water), this figure of 4% is higher in the Emsland. Secondary (manufacturing) businesses provide 33% while 43% are provided in the region. The private service sector overall in the Emsland seems to be developing as only 30% of the jobs are in that particular category compared to 37% in the federal state. Finally, public service provision is responsible in the Emsland for only 24% while 27% in the federal states average. Overall these figures support the argument that development in the Emsland focused on supporting profit seeking activities rather than other regions that were focused on rent seeking activities; e.g., attracting governmental institutions. In both compared areas the primary sector lost, from 1997 to 2005, 6% (Lower Saxony) and 8% (Emsland) respectively of its absolute importance. This trend was more pronounced in the Emsland due to a higher share of primary industries related employment than in Lower Saxony. The manufacturing businesses in Lower Saxony lost 17% of the absolute employment while in the Emsland this loss was only 5%. While Lower Saxony won 10% of employment in the tertiary sector, the Emsland seems to be much more prepared to attract new jobs in the service sector with an increase of 21%. At least the importance of the state for employment shows the most telling difference between the Emsland and Lower Saxony as while in Lower Saxony public services providers increased employment by 3%, while it decreased in the Emsland by 21%. Table 3: Economic indicators in comparison of Lower Saxony and the Emsland (2003) Lower Saxony Emsland Unit 2003 change 1997 to change 1997 to Economically active population in in 1,000 1,000 (1999 to 2005) persons 3,680 5% % Economically active population as a share of tot. Population In percent 46.0% n/a 45.2% n/a Employees in 1,000 persoms 2,375 n/a n/a Unemployment Rate (%) (change 1999 to 2005) In percent % % GDP Per Inh. In EURO in Euro 23,000 14% 25, % Primary sector employment in persons 67,907-6% 3,531-8% Secondary sector employment in persons 781,946-17% 38,589-5% Tertiary sector employment in heads 880,939 10% 26,795 21% state employment in persons 645,025 3% 21,799-21% Source: Eurostat and NLS (2008) Agriculture in the Emsland is dominated by animal husbandry (see table 4). This requires that, due to the high importance of meat production, arable land is mostly planted with maize. Grasslands are mostly used by dairy cows and cattle. The number 103

104 ERSEC conference proceeding of farms in the Emsland in 2003 was 4,592, of which 40% were part-time and 60% were full-time lead. Table 4: Agricultural structure in comparison of Lower Saxony and the Emsland (2003) Lower Saxony Emsland unit 2003 change 1997 to change 1997 to 2005 Farms number 57,588-3% 4,592-4% Arable Land in ha 1,816,249 0% 145,454 0% Permanent in ha 19,108 1% 140 2% Grassland in ha 781,484-2% 18,243-5% Cattle number 2,661,117-2% 193,828-2% Dairy cows number 748,056-1% 33,832-4% Pigs number 7,795,272 1% 1,213,674 2% Sheep number 262,709-9% 8,758-9% Full time farms number 30,662-3% 2,573-4% in ha in ha 1,989,210 0% 130,657 1% Part time farms number 23,692-2% 1,891-6% in ha in ha 332,969-4% 24,774-5% Source: Eurostat and NLS (2008) While the full-time farms on average had a size of over 70 ha, the part-time farms are much smaller and have some 10 ha. While in Lower Saxony the absolute number of pigs increased between 1997 and 2005 by 1%, the Emsland as part of the meat production belt of the Oldenburger Münsterland has seen an increase of 2%. Grasslands can be found only in 11% of the UAA in the Emsland, compared to Lower Saxony with 30%. During that the same period the number of dairy cows decreased as well as the number of cattle per se in line with the federal states trend. Arable lands share mostly staid stability and even increased in absolute figures as more and more grassland has been either changed to fields or afforested. 3 POEMS - The Emsland Model 3.1 Structure and development of POEMS The POEMS (Policy model for the Emsland) model is built with the Stella software (ISEE, 2007), representing stocks and flows using user-defined variables, parameters, equations and time periods. Some structures and relations of POEMS have been built on existing relations existent of the POMMARD model (see Bergmann and Thomoson, 2008a, 2008b and 2008c). According to the supplier, intuitive icon-based graphical interface simplifies model building and understanding, and also data input and output, via spreadsheets and convertors. The use of this software within TOP-MARD was intended to cover both 104

105 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management the wide range of project interest, and to enable modeling to be done by some national teams who were not familiar with analysis across the range, e.g., input-output modeling, agri-environmental features, or QoL measurement. POEMS is used to simulate the behaviour of a rural region as a whole (i.e., not individual farms or other businesses) in terms of its demography, economy and land use sectors over a number of years (in this model at least 15). It contains 6 modules: Land use (see below), agriculture, economy, investment, human resources (demography), and tourism, together with initial conditions, scenario controls and indicators (i.e., major model results). Figure 1 depicts the graphic model interface. The scientific modeling approach behind POEMS is based on Johnson (1986) and Leontief (1953), in which dynamic regional shifts are included into a localized IO table. The primary engines of the model are sectoral final demand by 19 economic sectors and land use by 31 agricultural (and other, e.g., forestry) production systems. Such use, specified by shares of total regional area, determines the amounts of labour employed in these systems, and the output of farm commodities. The regional economy is modelled via an input-output table to which a households row and column are added. However, unlike many models of economic relationships, the model is partially supply-oriented, insofar as agricultural activity supplements other demand drivers. Inputs Structure of POEMS Initial Conditions (data) Land use Scenarios Agricultural production systems Human capital Output Indicators (results) Economy (Input Output table) Tourism Figure 1: The Structure of the POEMS Model Source: Bergmann and Thomson, 2008a, changed The regional population is modeled in some detail; e.g., 20 age groups differentiated by gender (e.g., under 5 year old men, under 5 year old women, under 10 year old men, 105

106 ERSEC conference proceeding under 10 year old women, etc.). These age-education cohorts are represented in the employment and migration vectors. The core version of POEMS is under development throughout Output indicators employed in POEMS Measuring the success or failure of policies related to rural development can be accomplished with a confusing number of more than 57 indicators as Bryden (2002, 14f.) and Bryden et al. (2004) shows. Bergmann et al argue that an even smaller number of probably 8 core indicators would be appropriate. In order to facilitate the presentation of the results, it has been decided to concentrate the indicators on those that would be of particular interest in the understanding of the author. The following ten core indicators are chosen and presented in this paper, so as to make understanding and comparison of the results easier: 1) Farming agricultural production value, agricultural employment 2) Demographics population size 3) Social - GVA per capita 4) Economics total regional employment and tourism labour demand 4 Scenarios and Results 4.1 Scenario specification Four different scenarios have been employed with POEMS to measure the regional economic costs that different extents of land demand by the water framework directive might have on the Emsland in regional economic, agricultural and demographic terms based on Mährlein (2007a and 2007b). Those scenarios are: 1. Baseline scenario, which considers annual economic growth of 1.5% in real terms, the foreseen local changes of birth and death rates and an individual reaction parameter on land use changes in the region. 2. Scenario 1, which considers 5% of the area being protected sharply by the water framework but will at the same time mean that tourism demand will increase by 5% 3. Scenario 2, which considers 10% of the area being protected sharply by the water framework but will at the same time mean that tourism demand will increase also by 10% 4. Scenario 3, which considers 25% of the area being protected sharply by the water framework but will at the same time mean that tourism demand will 106

107 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management increase by 25% 4.2 Main baseline scenario In the main baseline the following results for the period 2004 to 2020 can be found (see Table 5 below). The total population would reach a maximum by 2010 and decrease after that time considerably, due to lowering birth rates and labour saving technological progress. Especially in the primary and secondary sector, labour demand would decrease even if as assumed here final demand would grow significantly by 1,5% annually. By 2020 population size compared to 2004 would be down by only 1%. The total workforce however would decrease over time significantly by 3% as people tend to live longer and over time fewer children are born. As for the agricultural production value, the overall level of 2004 deflated production value would stay the same, while labour saving technological progress would bring about a situation in which less and less labour is needed to produce the same output. Overall, following the assumption that there is a trend even in tourism for specialization and less labour demand, it can be expected that by 2020 the number of people working in the tourism sector would be down by some 400 persons. Table 5: Main baseline projection for the Emsland, 2004 to 2020 Time Total population 307, , , ,055 Total workforce 89,673 89,603 86,611 83,252 GVA per capita 14,834 15,619 16,905 18,400 Total production 11,672 12,470 13,379 14,377 Total labour demand 94,597 90,086 87,526 85,151 Labour market demand[agriculture] 3,021 2,846 2,765 2,693 Labour market demand[hotels and restaurants] 1,930 1,756 1,636 1,527 Own calculations, 5 September 2008 Below, a typical output of POEMS (based on the Stella modeling framework) shows the development in the main baseline over time. Generally it can be expected that in absolute figures total production value will increase in line with the GVA per capita while total population size and subsequently labour demand (due to labour saving technological progress) will decrease. 107

108 ERSEC conference proceeding 1: 2: 3: 4: 1: Total production 2: total population 3: Total labour demand 4: GVA per capita : 2: 3: 4: : 2: 3: 4: Page Time 09:41 Sam, 6. Sep 2008 Emsland - M ain Baseline Scenario 4.3 Results of the scenarios Figure 1: Main baseline results trend until 2020 By using the above mentioned three scenarios the results can be best presented in a radar presentation in so far as the impact on the key indicators is visible at first glance. As one would expect, as the positive effects of the water framework directive are incorporated by the increasing tourism demand, the regional effects compared to the main baseline scenario are negative. While it is known that structural change in the farming sector is unavoidable, the water framework directive would add a substantial driver to the pressure to leave the farming sector permanently. Such a move as presented in this paper however can be quite problematic as the alternative sector that assimilates farming labour is tourism, which normally pays sub-standard wages and mostly offers part-time jobs. Overall, comparing the different scenarios, the effects are quite significant for agriculture with decreases in labour employment up to 28%, while the overall regional effects of the different scenarios would only result in a decrease of 3% regarding population size and workforce. 108

109 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management tourism labour Population size 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% Workforce Emsland 2015 Baseline Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% agricultural labour GVA per capita regional labour Total production 4.4 The future of POEMS Figure 2: Results comparison for 2015 As can be seen so far, POEMS is tackling the cost side of environmental improvements based on regional economic theories. The benefits so far have only been captured by increased tourism demand. The presented results are only part of the story as social benefits related to increased levels of eco-system service provision nor are water cleaning cost savings included into the scenarios. This major gap will have to be included into a full analysis in future versions of POEMS. It is intended to amend the following elements to the model: 1) price and cost module to model, in more detail, farmers behaviour over time 2) non-commodity module, which will catch environmental improvements as well as tackle non-tangibles; e.g., quality of life indicators, social capital, etc. 3) elaborated tourism module, that will model, in more detail, challenges and obstacles of developing tourism in the region 5 Conclusion Nitrogen pollution of surface as well as groundwater is a European wide environmental problem. The water framework directive aims at improving the status of river basins across Europe by introducing new protection areas near rivers by legislation. In the light of the ever increasing costs of cleaning water and subsequently loosing out 109

110 ERSEC conference proceeding on formerly free eco-system services, such a move is understandable. On the other hand, there are economic and social costs of such environmental friendly legislation. In particular, land use based industries have to bear huge amounts of cost that are implied by this new regulation. Though they are compensated, farming is deprived of its scarcest input land and the future of farming in the Emsland seems diminished. Starting with a 5% level of utilized arable agricultural land in the Emsland, to up to 25% that the new legislation might claim, this paper shows that there are not only effects that directly hit the agricultural sector, but also has wider impacts on society. The Emsland has seen in recent decades a significant economic switch from a mainly primary based economy to a services-and-manufacturing goods based economy and one would expect that this switch would be accelerated by the water framework directive. Whether this is inline with the wishes of the society remains unclear. Some hints that the European legislation might be out of touch with the wishes and demands of local citizens are given by the fact that local authorities in the Emsland have already filed court cases against other environmental legislation. Furthermore for the Emsland this paper shows there is a deep rooted regional dependency on agriculture, forestry and the mining sector in so far as that any artificially imposed constraint on production possibilities changes development patterns and might hinder rural development. As this paper presents a modeling approach still is a work in progress, questions remain especially on issues that are related to the valuation of the benefits (marketed as well as non-marketed) of the severe top-down approach that the water framework directive has chosen. Acknowledgements This paper derives partly from work being financed by the EU under the FP6 work I have done, the TOP-MARD project (see and partly from work which was done for Albrecht Mährlein (Landwirtschaftlicher Sachverständiger). I would like to thank Prof. Kenneth Thomson for comments on the modeling (University of Aberdeen) and Prof. Bernhard Brümmer (University of Goettingen) for deeper insights into the Emsland. References 1. Bergmann, H. & Thomson, K. (2008a) Modeling Policies for Multifunctional Agriculture in a Remote EU Region (Caithness & Sutherland, Scotland UK), 107th EAAE Seminar in Seville (Spain), 110

111 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 2. Bergmann, H.; Thomson, K. (2008b) Regional impact analysis of European policy spending in a rural remote area (Caithness & Sutherland, Scotland, UK), paper at the GEWISOLA conference 2008, Bonn, 26 th September Bergmann, H.; Thomson, K. (2008c) Sustainable Regional Development in a rural remote Area (Caithness and Sutherland, Scotland) Modeling impacts and obstacles, 5th Annual International Sustainable Development Conference, Sustainability - Creating the Culture, The New Drumossie Hotel, Inverness, Highlands and Islands, Scotland, 12/13th November Bryden, J.M.; Hart,J.K. (eds.) (2004): A New Approach to Rural Development in Europe. Germany, Greece, Scotland and Sweden. The Edwin Mellen Press. New York 5. Danielzyk, R. (1997) Ein erfolgreicher ländlicher Raum : Das Emsland (?), In: Forschungen des BBR, Heft Eurostat (2008): Regional statistics for Lower Saxony and the Emsland region, www. ec.europa.eu/eurostat/; accessed 1.September Hachmöller, G; Schrader, H. (2002): Entwicklungsdynamik und Sozialkapital in ländlichen Räumen: zwei Fallbeispiele aus Niedersachsen (Development dynamics and social capital in rural areas: two case studies from Lower Saxony).In: Seminarbericht No. 43 der Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung; p Manuscript of a paper presented at the winter seminar of the German speaking section of the Regional Science Association, 24th February to 3th March 2001 in Matrei/Osttirol, Austria. 8. ISEE Systems (2007) Stella Version 9, Lebanon, NH USA. accessed Isermann, K., Share of agriculture in nitrogen and phosphorus emissions into the surface waters of Western Europe against the background of their eutrophication. Fertilizer Research 26, Isermann, K., Isermann, R., Die Anteile des N-Austrages mit dem Sickerwasser aus der landwirtschaftlich genutzten Fläche über die (un)gesättigte Zone in die Oberflächengewässer Westeuropas/ EU und Deutschlands an der jeweiligen N-Bilanz der Landwirtschaft (1987/92). In: Proc. of the 5. Gumpensteiner Lysimetertagung Stofftransport und Stoffbilanz in der ungesättigten Zone, Gumpenstein, Austria, pp Johnson, T. G A Dynamic Input-Output Model for Small Regions. Review of Regional Studies 16:1 (Spring): Kersebaum, K.C.; Steidl, J.; Bauer, O. Piorr, H.-P. (2003) Modeling scenarios to assess the effects of different agricultural management and land use options to reduce diffuse nitrogen pollution into the river Elbe, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Volume 28, Issues 12-13, 2003, Pages Leontief, W.W. et al. (1953) Studies in the structure of the American economy, Oxford University Press, Mährlein, A. (2007a) Personal communication on policy scenarios, Mährlein, A. (2007b) Modellprojekt Entwicklungspotenziale Emsländischer Tieflandgewässer cdl.niedersachsen.de/blob/images/c _l20.pdf 111

112 ERSEC conference proceeding 16. NLS [Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Statistik] (2008) Regionale Statistikdatenbank, accessed 1. September Schrader, H. (2002): Social capital, local actor networks and differential economic performance in rural areas: evidence from case studies in Germany. In: ERSA 2002: from industry to advanced services; perspectives of European metropolitan regions; p Manuscript of a paper presented at the 43th Congress of the European Regional Science Association (ERSA) August 27th to 31st, 2002, Dortmund, Germany Thomson, K.J., Mcgranahan, A.D.; (2008): Environment, Land Use and Amenities the New Dimension of Rural Development, EuroChoices, Vol. 7, No. 1. (April 2008), pp Van der Molen, D.T., Breeuwsma, A., Boers, P.C.M., Agricultural nutrient losses to surface water in the Netherlands: impact, strategies and perspectives. Journal of Environment Quality 27,

113 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Nitrogen Surplus in German Agriculture: Interactions with Soils, Aquifers and Adjacent Ecosystems 德国农业氮肥过剩 : 土壤 水体和周边生态系统的交互作用 R. Nieder Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Germany Abstract In German agriculture, the nitrogen (N) surplus currently amounts to ~85 kg N ha -1 year -1. The cumulative N surplus since 1950 amounts to ~4,000 kg N ha -1. In arable soils of western Germany, ~1,500 kg N ha -1 were immobilized in the A p horizons due to the increase in ploughing depth around The surplus N which was not immobilized is susceptible to leaching of NO 3 - and emitting gaseous N. Since the beginning of the new millennium, the buffering capacity of arable soils for surplus N has reached its limits. Nitrogen emissions from agricultural systems have caused significant damage to near-natural ecosystems and water resources. Forest soils in Germany have partly changed from sink to source systems of nitrogen due to increased atmospheric N inputs. As a consequence, leaching of NO 3 - from forest soils in the near future will lead to increased NO 3 - contents in groundwater. Practices to reduce N balance surpluses in agriculture are therefore urgently needed. 摘要德国农业系统中目前每年过剩的氮肥残余大约是每公顷 85 公斤 1950 年以来累积的氮肥残余大约为每公顷 4000 公斤 由于 1970 年左右耕作深度的增加, 西德的可耕地中大约每公顷有 1500 公斤的氮固化在耕作层中 没有固化的氮肥残余很容易通过硝酸盐分解并且释放出气态的氮 自从新世纪开始以来, 可耕地对残余氮的缓解能力已经达到极限 农业系统释放出的氮已经严重危害附近的自然生态系统和水资源 德国部分森林土壤由于大气中氮的输入增加已经从氮库转化为氮源, 其结果是森林土壤中分解的硝酸盐在不久的将来会导致地下水硝酸盐含量的增加 因此, 急需农业上能减少氮残余的技术 1 Introduction Nitrogen applied in fertilizers, manures, biosolids and other sources is not always applied efficiently to crops (Galloway et al., 2004). Balance surpluses are frequently 113

114 ERSEC conference proceeding prepared to estimate the emission potential of excessively applied amounts of nutrients. The surplus N is susceptible to leaching of NO 3 - and emitting N 2 O. There are significant differences in the N surplus estimates among different authors. The most uncertain aspects of these calculations are the input terms biological N fixation and atmospheric N deposition, and the output terms (export of N from fields in harvested crops and grazing, and NH 3 volatilization (Van Drecht et al., 2005). More than 80% of the anthropogenic N 2 O emission stems from agriculture. Crop production is responsible for about 50 % of N 2 O emissions from the agricultural sector. N 2 O is also emitted from manure, soil-borne N (especially in fallow years), legumes, plant residues and compost. Based on statistical models, the global annual emissions from fertilized arable land were estimated to be 3.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr -1, and 1.4 NO-N yr -1 (Stehfest, 2006). Fertilizer induced N 2 O emissions, which are currently estimated by the IPCC to be 1.25 ± 1% of the N applied, range between 0.77% (rice) and 2.76% (maize). In the 1990s, simulated N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils amounted to 2.1 Tg N 2 O- N yr -1 (Stehfest, 2006). Emission rates of N 2 O from agricultural soils are significantly affected by the fertilization rate, soil organic matter (SOM) content, soil ph, texture, crop type, and fertilizer type. NO emissions are significantly determined by the fertilization rate, soil N content, and climate. Improving N use efficiency can reduce - NO 3 leaching and N 2 O emissions and indirectly GHG emissions from N fertilizer manufactures (Schlesinger, 1999). 2 N Balance Calculations for Europe and Germany In Table 1, the N surplus by management per unit agricultural area for 15 European countries is presented. The five countries with the highest N surplus (>80 kg N ha -1 year -1 ) are The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Luxemburg and Germany. Table 1: Surplus of nitrogen in European countries (Nieder and Benbi, 2008) Country The Netherlands Belgium Denmark Luxemburg Germany Ireland Finland Greece France Italy Spain Portugal UK Austria Sweden Mean of the 15 countries N surplus (kg N ha -1 year -1 ) > >50 >50 <50 ~50 114

115 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The development of the N surplus in Germany from 1950 to 2003, separated for western (the former FRG) and eastern (the former GDR) Germany, is given in Figure 1. The N surplus was calculated from the difference between N fertilizer applied with mineral fertilizers plus N from imported animal feed and the N removed in harvested crops (for details see Nieder et al., 2003). During the 1950s, the mean N surplus in Germany did not exceed 30 kg N ha -1 year -1. During the following decades, the N surplus increased continuously and reached a maximum of ~135 kg N ha -1 year -1 in Eastern Germany in the 1970s and of ~120 kg N ha -1 year -1 in Western Germany during the 1980s. Until the unification in 1990, the development of the N surplus was similar in western and eastern Germany. Due to the collapse of the agricultural sector after the unification, the N surplus in eastern Germany was significantly reduced. Figure 1: Development of the mean annual N surplus in Germany (1950 to 2003) After the agriculture in eastern Germany was revitalized during the 1990s, the N surplus started to re-increase. In western Germany, the N surplus since the beginning of the 1990s is roughly 100 kg ha -1 year -1. In Germany (total territory) the mean N surplus amounts to about 85 kg ha -1. The cumulative N surplus from 1950 to 2003 amounts to ~3,500 kg N ha -1 in eastern Germany and to ~4,000 kg N ha -1 in western Germany (Figure 2). 115

116 ERSEC conference proceeding Figure 2: Cumulative N surplus in Germany from 1950 to 2003 The information in Figures 1 and 2 are means for the whole agricultural sector. However, the magnitude of the N surplus strongly depends on the production system. This is shown in Table 2. Table 2: Nitrogen balances 1995/96 for three production systems in Germany (Bach et al. (1997) Production system Cash crop Fodder crop Livestock N surplus 1995/96 (kg N ha -1 year -1 ) In Germany, in most cash crop production farms, the amounts of fertilizer N applied almost correspond to the amounts of N removed by field crops. In contrast, in fodder crop and particularly in livestock production farms, the N input is much higher compared to cash crop farms. According to the current German regulation, livestock densites of more than 3.0 gross weight units (GWU) of 500 kg ha -1 are permitted. A livestock density of 3.0 GWU ha -1 would correspond to annual excretions of ~300 kg N ha -1. An additional portion may be added with mineral fertilizers. The regional distribution of livestock density in Germany is shown in Figure

117 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 3: Regional distribution of livestock densities in Germany (Cypris and Kreins, 1998) Livestock densities are extremely high in the north-western part of Germany (western Lower Saxony and north-western Northrhine-Westphalia), where in some parts >2.5 gross weight units (GWU) ha -1 occur. This region is dominated by pig and poultry production plants. Another region with increased livestock densities (>2.0 GWU ha -1 ) is southern Germany (South of Bavaria) where cattle breeding in fodder crop production farms is dominating. 2.1 Nitrogen accumulation in deepened plough layers In arable soils, the SOM content with constant rotation is in a state of quasi-equilibrium if the ploughing frequency and depth are approximately constant. Under such circumstances, soils attain a balance between gains and losses of C, N, S and P. Carbon and nutrients in SOM are temporarily liberated but the amounts released are compensated for by the incorporation of equal amounts into newly formed humus. In Europe (e.g. Denmark, France, The Netherlands, Belgium and Sweden; Cannell, 1985) and North America (Rasmussen et al., 1998), typical depths of ploughing by established methods usually range from 15 to 25 cm. In Western Germany, increasing the ploughing depth from <25 cm to >35 cm in the 1970s had been a feature of intensive 117

118 ERSEC conference proceeding agriculture (Nieder and Richter, 2000). In the territory of East Germany (the former GDR), depths of ploughing rarely exceed 25 cm (Nieder, 2000). The impact of the depening of plough layers on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) was investigated by Nieder and Richter (2000). The sampling sites are given in Figure4. Figure 4: Sampling locations (16 farms, 120 field plots) of the C and N accumulation study (Nieder and Richter, 2000) The study area is dominated by Pleistocene sandy sediments in the northern part (farm No. 16), by loess in the central part (farms no. 1-14) and by red sandstone in the South (farm No. 15). In parts of the sandy region (main crops: maize, cereals, potatoes) the livestock production systems are very intensively managed and maize fields are frequently used for slurry disposal. In the loess zone, the high productivity has lead to farming systems with sugar beet-cereal rotations (cash crop systems without animal production). The loess-derived soils are mainly Luvisols, together with some Phaeozems and Cambisols (FAO, 1998). The soils on the sandy substrates are Cambisols. Increasing the ploughing depth initially causes dilution of the soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON) content in the A p due to mixing of underlying C-poor subsoil material (Figure 5a). 118

119 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 5: Dilution of the SOC content due to deepening the plough layer (a) and accumulation of SOC due to quasi-reestablishment of the original SOM content (b) (Nieder and Benbi, 2008) Subsequently, SOM contents present before the onset of deeper plowing were quasi reestablished within several decades (Figure 5 b). From 1970 to 2000, large amounts of SOC and SON have been accumulated in the deepened plow layers. About 10 t C ha -1 and 1 t N ha -1 were accumulated in loess soils of cash crop production farms and roughly 20 t C ha -1 and 2 t N ha -1 were accumulated in sandy soils of livestock production farms (Figure 6). Figure 6: Accumulation of nitrogen after deepening the tillage (16 farms, 120 plots) from <25 to >35 cm around 1970 (Lower Saxony, North Germany) (Nieder et al., 2003) 119

120 ERSEC conference proceeding As a consequence, a significant part of the N surplus has been buffered in the deepened plow layers (about 30 kg N ha -1 year -1 in cash crop production farms and roughly 70 kg N ha -1 year -1 in livestock production farms) and thus has been prevented from leaching. The higher SOC and SON accumulation rates in livestock production farms compared to cash crop production farms might be due to higher inputs of organic residues from animal production. In most of the arable soils, the buffering capacity for C and N has reached its limits because organic matter "equilibria" have been re-established. Due to the recent SOM accumulation, the N mineralization potentials of arable soils have increased significantly (Figure 7). Figure 7: Cumulative N mineralization (from incubation experiments) in Southern Lower Saxonian arable loess soils 5, 10, 20 and 30 years after deepening the tillage (Southern Lower Saxony, North Germany) (Nieder et al., 2003) According to optimized N mineralization parameters from long-term incubation experiments, the N mineralization potentials have increased from kg N ha cm -1 in the late 1970s to about 1,200 kg N ha cm -1 in 2000 (Figure 7). This means that a significant part of the newly accumulated N has become part of the active pool of SOM. These results suggest that there is significant potential for the storage of SOM in arable soils, but it has to be taken into account that the stored amounts of SOM can be easily released again under inappropriate management practices. The changes in the N (and C) mineralization potentials are of particular interest for N fertilization strategies as well as for assessing N and C sequestration in arable soils. 2.2 Nitrogen loss estimate for Germany Emissions of NO x and NH 3 result from natural processes, food and energy production. For emissions of total N, about 70% are a consequence of food production and N cycling in human nutrition (Galloway et al., 2004). In German agriculture, losses of nitrogen via 120

121 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management denitrification may rarely exceed kg ha -1 year -1 (Nieder et al., 1989) while the emissions of NH 3 from livestock production and the storage and application of manures in some regions are extremely high. Figure 8 shows the N emissions from the agricultural sub-sectors indoor/outdoor livestock production, storage and land spreading. Figure 8: Emission densities of NH 3 -N from animal production in Germany; the data refer to districts (Umweltbundesamt, 2002) The data on livestock numbers were obtained from official livestock censuses. Information on livestock farming and manure management techniques was generated by conducting surveys in different regions of Germany. Increased N emissions correlate with livestock densities (compare Figures 3 and 4). The region with the highest NH 3 -N emission of >100 kg N ha -1 year -1 is located in the western part of Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen). Loss of nitrate in ground water during the last decades has become a significant result of nitrogen in agroecosystems. Leaching of nitrate can lead to significant, potentially harmful concentrations of NO 3 - in groundwater. Eutrophication can occur when NO 3 - accumulates in lakes, ponds or estuaries. The N transport by rivers is an important factor 121

122 ERSEC conference proceeding in N loss from continents and eutrophication of oceans (Smil, 1997). In Germany, leaching losses of nitrogen from agriculture contribute to 80% of the nitrate input into the groundwater. The mean annual N leaching rate from agricultural soils may currently amount to about 40 kg ha -1 year -1 (Nieder et al., 1995). 2.3 Atmospheric N deposition Atmospheric nitrogen is deposited to the terrestrial ecosystems through rain, snow and hail (wet deposition) or dust and aerosols (dry deposition). The input originates mainly from previously emitted NH 3 and NO x. Deposition occurs in the form of NH 3 and NH 4 + (collectively termed NH y ) and as NO x and its reaction products: gaseous nitric acid (HNO 3 ), nitrous acid (HONO) and particulate nitrate (NO 3 - ). While HNO 3 usually features a rapid downward (net deposition) flux to the surface (Huebert and Robert, 1985), the exchange of NO, NH 3, HONO and NO 2 between surface and atmosphere may be bi-directional (Trebs et al., 2006). Dry deposition of NH 3 is most important close to a source and wet deposition of NH 4 + is most important some distance downwind from the source. Far from the source the deposition of NH 4 + is on an annual average halved approximately every 400 km (Ferm, 1998). In parts of Europe, with high NH 3 emissions, like the Netherlands, Belgium Denmark and parts of Germany, dry deposition of NH 3 represents the largest contribution to total NH x deposition. The mean annual atmospheric N deposition (dry and wet) in Germany may amount to about kg N ha -1 year -1 NO x -N (mostly from the transport and energy sector) and 20 kg N ha -1 a -1 NH y -N (mostly from livestock production). Due to increased N uptake by the forest canopy, the N deposition in German forest ecosystems is currently estimated at ~50 (20 to 80) kg N ha -1 year -1 (Nieder et al., 2003). 2.4 Impacts of increased nitrogen deposition on forests High atmospheric deposition of N and S mainly concern the industrialized countries of Europe and North America, but the problem is further spreading to other parts of the world such as East Asia (Kuylenstierna et al., 1995). While S depositions in Europe and North America decreased in the 1990s, inputs of NH 4 + and NO 3 - remained unchanged or even increased (Matzner and Murach, 1995). In Germany, the critical N inputs to forest ecosystems of about 10 kg ha -1 yr -1 (Nagel and Gregor, 1999) are exceeded on 99.7% of the German forest area (Umweltbundesamt, 1999). Elevated N inputs to forest soils can enhance the accumulation of C and N in SOM through increased biomass production (Aber et al., 1998) but it is also discussed that increased N deposition increases the rate of net N mineralization (Matzner and Murach, 1995). Besides increased N and S deposition and forest liming, rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations and associated global warming during the last 50 years could also impact 122

123 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management forest ecosystems (Houghton et al., 1995; van Breemen et al., 1998). Carbon and nitrogen sequestration in forest soils are intensively discussed as potential mechanisms to reduce the increase of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and to decrease the NO 3 - concentration in the seepage water of forest ecosystems subject to elevated atmospheric N deposition. The issues of C and N sequestration in forest soils during the development of Scots pine stands within a rotation period and of N mobilization from N- saturated forest ecosystems at present are of considerable interest. In Germany, more than 70% of the forest area is covered by coniferous forests (Ellenberg, 1996), mainly by Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). Forest soils are generally important reservoirs for soil C and N. Carbon and N transformations occur more rapidly in organic layers (L and O horizons) than in the underlying upmost mineral soil horizon (A horizon). The sequestration of carbon and nitrogen in northern German forest floors was investigated by Nieder et al. (2004). The sampling locations are distributed along a catena from western to eastern Lower Saxony (Figure 9). The climate of the study area is maritime-subcontinental, partly in transition to maritime (Augustendorf, Markhausen, Sandkrug) or subcontinental climate (Rehburg, Unterlüß), respectively (Müller and Lüders, 1977). The mean annual precipitation varies from 650 mm (Unterlüß, Rehburg, Uchte) to > 700 mm (Augustendorf, Markhausen, Sandkrug). The mean annual temperature ranges from 8 to 9 o C in the whole area (de Haar et al., 1978). Figure 9: Sampling locations of the forest study (Nieder et al., 2004) 123

124 ERSEC conference proceeding Samples were taken on a total of 35 stands. The soils are Haplic Podzols (FAO, 1998) on pleistocene sands and shifting sand. The N deposition (dry and wet) in throughfall ranges from ~15 (eastern Lower Saxony) to ~30 (western Lower Saxony) kg N ha -1 year - 1 (Mohr, 2001). The total N deposition is much higher because of the interactions between atmosphere and forest canopy, especially in western Lower Saxony which is the region with the highest livestock density in Germany (see Figure 3). Most of the stands had been limed (surface application of 3 t CaMg(CO 3 ) 2 ha -1 between 1973 and 1999). The increased N availability through high N deposition results in changes in the ground vegetation. Vegetation that was adapted to N-limited conditions (e.g. Vaccinium myrtilis, Andromeda polifolia) has been replaced by the grass species Avenella flexuosa and Molinia caerulea. In our research area, the original Myrtillo-Cultopinetum sylvestris community has been replaced by an Avenello-Cultopinetum sylvestris community (Nieder et al., 2004). For long time periods, the typical humus form of Podzols under >60 year old pine (Pinus sylvestris) stands in the northern German lowlands was Mor (Hofmann, 1997). For this humus form, an abrupt transition from the L to the O f and the O f to the O h horizon can commonly be observed. The O h horizon is usually compacted. This has changed in parts of the study area. Especially in western and central Lower Saxony, Moder is currently the dominant humus form (Table 3). Table 3: Distribution of humus forms in the study area (Nieder et al., 2004) Humus form Western and central L.S. Eastern L.S. Mor Moder Total Number of sites Number of sites L.S.: Lower SaxonyIn Moder, transitions between the L and O horizons are not abrupt and the material of the O h is not compacted. The re-development of Mor to Moder has dramatic consequences for the C and N dynamics of the forest ecosystem. Mor in old pine stands (>60 y) stores significantly more C and N as compared to Moder (Table 4). Although it is not directly proven by long-term measurements, it can be supposed that in a pine forest system in which the humus form is in transformation from Mor to Moder, high amounts of C and N are being lost due to organic matter depletion which may partly cause elevated mineral N concentrations in the mineral soils. This means that forest soils in northen Germany have partly changed from sink to source systems of nitrogen due to increased atmospheric N inputs. 124

125 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Table 4: Carbon and N storage in northwestern German pine forest floors (stand age > 60 years; Nieder, 2004) Humus form C (t ha -1 ) N (t ha -1 ) C/N Mor 89.5 ± ± ± 1.9 Moder 50.8 ± ± 0.3 Note: All differences between humus forms are significant (P < 0.01) 23 ± 1.8 The changes in humus morphology are accompanied by a decrease of the C/N ratios (Table 4) which is an indicator of increased decomposability of the organic material. A further observation is a decrease in the C/N ratios in comparison with data from literature. Our mean values for Mor (C/N 28) and Moder (C/N 23) are smaller than values published by Arbeitskreis Standortskartierung (1996; range for Mor: C/N 29-31; range for Moder: C/N 25-31). Figure 10 shows the mineral N contents in the mineral soils of the sampling locations. The highest mineral N content was observed in the areas with the highest N emission rates (see Figure 4). In Augustendorf, the mean mineral N content amounted to 72 (maximum 179!) kg N ha cm -1, whereas it was 55 kg N ha cm -1 in Sandkrug and Uchte, and 45 kg N ha cm -1 in Holdorf and Rehburg. Figure 10: Mineral N contents (NH 4 + -N plus NO 3 - -N) in the mineral soils (0-90 cm) In spite of regional significantly elevated N depositions (e.g. in western Lower Saxony), the quality of groundwater under forests compared to agricultural soils is still high with respect to the EU drinking water regulation. This becomes evident by comparing NO 3 - concentrations in surface-near groundwater under forests with under agricultural areas (Table 5). While under arable land the NO 3 - the concentration is significantly higher than the EU critical value of 50 mg NO 3 - L -1, the nitrate values under forests do not exceed 20 mg NO 3 - L

126 ERSEC conference proceeding Table 5: Contents of NO 3 - (means from ) in surface-near (<20 m) groundwater under arable land and pine forests Land use type/region NO 3 - (mg L -1 ) 1 Nitrogen status Arable land/ western Lower Saxony Scots pine forests/ eastern Lower Saxony <<5 High N surplus of >>100 kg N ha -1 moderate atmospheric N deposition Scots pine forests/ Western Lower Saxony EU critical value: 50 mg NO 3 - L -1 (11.3 mg N L -1 ) high atmospheric N deposition However, the data in Table 5 demonstrate that under scots pine forests with high atmospheric N deposition the NO 3 - concentrations are significantly increased compared to pine forests with moderate N deposition. For the protection of the environment and the groundwater resources, the N emissions need to be reduced immediately. 3 Summary Since the beginning of the post World War II period, surpluses of nitrogen (N) and other nutrients have caused damage particularly to aquifers and to natural or semi-natural ecosystems of many industrialized countries. In Germany, the cumulative N surplus from 1950 to 2008 may amount to ~4,000 kg ha -1. In Western Germany (the former FRG), ~1,500 kg N ha -1 on average have been accumulated in the SOM of plough layers deepened (from <25 cm to >35 cm) around When comparing the N surplus (~100 kg ha -1 year -1 ) and the N deposition (>30 kg ha -1 year -1 ) with the mean N losses (~40 kg ha -1 year -1 as leaching and ~40 kg ha -1 year -1 as gaseous losses) and the N accumulation rate (~50 kg ha -1 year -1 ) for the period , the sum was almost balanced. Since about 2000, the buffering capacity for reactive N compounds has reached its limits in most western German soils. Forests of the temperate climate zone are subject to increased atmospheric N depositions. In northern German pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests, increased N availability results in changes of the ground vegetation. Vegetation that was adapted to N-limited conditions has been replaced by grasses in most of the stands. On pleistocene sites of the North German lowlands, the typical humus form of Podzols under >60 year old pine (Pinus sylvestris) stands for long time periods was Mor. In many parts of this region, Moder currently is the dominant humus form which is a consequence of elevated N depositions. The transformation from Mor to Moder has drastic consequences for the C and N dynamics of the forest ecosystem, because in mature pine stands, the organic layers of Moder store has significantly less C and N compared to Mor. This means that the former sink system has changed to a source system for C and N. 126

127 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 4 Recommendations Inappropriate or excessive fertilizer application can lead to increased losses of N from soils. Losses can occur through runoff, leaching or as gaseous N compounds. Losses in gaseous forms can have negative impacts on the global climate, especially as N 2 O. Improving N use efficiency can reduce NO 3 - leaching and N 2 O emissions and indirectly GHG emissions from N fertilizer manufactures. By reducing leaching and volatilization losses, improved efficiency of N use can also reduce off-site N 2 O emissions. Practices that reduce N balance surpluses include i) adjusting application rates based on precise estimation of crop needs (e.g., precision farming, agricultural system models), ii) use of slow-release fertilizers or nitrification inhibitors, iii) applying N when least susceptible to loss, iv) placing the N more precisely into the soil to make it more accessible to crop roots and v) reducing livestock density to a level (< 1.2 gross weight units ha -1 ) at which damages to aquifers and (near-) natural ecosystems can largely be avoided. References 1. Aber, J.D., McDowell, H.W., Nadelhoffer, K.J., Magill, A., Bernston, G., Kamakea, M., McNulty, S.G., Currie, W., Rustad, L. and Fernandez, I., 1998, Nitrogen saturation in temperate forest ecosystems. BioScience 48: Bach, M., Frede, H.G., und Lang, G., 1997, Entwicklung der Stickstoff-, Phosphor- und Kalium-Bilanz in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Studie im Auftrag des Bundesarbeitskreises Düngung, Frankfurt a.m. Gesellschaft für Boden- und Gewässerschutz e.v., Wettenberg, 77 p. 3. Cannell, R.Q., 1985, Reduced tillage in Northwest Europe a review. Soil and tillage Research 5: Cypris, C. und Kreins, P., 1998, Entwicklung der regionalen Flächennutzung in Deutschland. Arbeitsmaterial der Forschungsgesellschaft für Agrarpolitik und Agrarsoziologie Nr. 5 in Bonn. 5. de Haar, U., Keller, R., Liebscher, H.J., Richter, W. and Schirmer, H. (eds.), 1978, Hydrologischer Atlas der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, 68 maps. 6. Ellenberg, H., 1996, Vegetation Mitteleuropas und der Alpen. 5th edition, UTB-Verlag, Stuttgart. 7. FAO, 1998, ISSS, ISRIC, FAO. World Reference Base for Soil Resources. FAO World Soil Resources Report 84, Rome. 8. Ferm, M., 1998, Atmospheric ammonia and ammonium transport in Europe and critical loads: a review. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 51: Galloway, J.N., Dentener, F.J., Capone, D.G., Boyer, E.W., Howarth, S.P., Seitzinger, S.P., Asner, G.P., Cleveland, A.F., Green, P.A., Holland, E.A., Karl, D.M., Michaels, A.F., Porter, J.H., Townsend, A.R., and Vörösmarty, C.J., 2004, Nitrogen cycles: past, present, and future. Biogeochemistry 70:

128 ERSEC conference proceeding 10. Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, J.G., Callander, A., Harris, N. and Kattenburg, A., 1995, The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 400pp. 11. Huebert, B.J. and Robert, C.H., 1985: The Dry Deposition of Nitric Acid to Grass. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 90: Kuylenstierna, J.C.I., Cambridge, H,. Cinderby, S. and Chadwick, M.J., 1995, Terrestrial ecosystem sensitivity to acidic deposition in developing countries. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 85: Matzner, E. and Murach, D., 1995, Soil changes induced by air pollutant deposition and their implication for forests in central Europe. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 85: Mohr, K Stickstoffimmissionen in Nordwestdeutschland Untersuchungen zu den ökologischen Auswirkungen auf Kiefernforsten und Möglichkeiten der Bioindikation. PhD thesis, University of Oldenburg, Germany. 15. Müller, W. and Lüders, R Die Bodenkundliche Standortkarte von Niedersachsen und Bremen 1: Mitteilungen der Deutschen Bodenkundlichen Gesellschaft. 25: Nagel, H.D. and 16. Gregor, H.D. (eds.), 1999, Ökologische Belastungsgrenzen Critical Loads & Levels, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg. 17. Nieder, R., 2000, Nährstoffanreicherung in Ackerkrumen vor dem Hintergrund des Boden-, Klima- und Gewässerschutzes. Zeitschrift für Kulturtechnik und Landentwicklung 41: Nieder, R. and Benbi, D.K. (2008), Carbon and Nitrogen in the Terrestrial Environment. Springer, 430 p. 19. Nieder, R., Brinkmann, S., Köster, W., Wachter, H. and Isermann, K., 2004, Stickstoff- Mobilisierung in Humusauflagen norddeutscher Kiefernforste. Wasserwirtschaft Zeitschrift für Wasser und Umwelt, 11: Nieder, R., Kersebaum, K.C., and Richter, J., 1995, Significance of nitrate leaching and longtern N immobilization after deepening the plough layer for the N regime of arable soils in N.W. Germany. Plant and Soil 173: Nieder, R., Köster, W., Dauck, H.P., and Brinkmann, S., 2003, Nährstoff-Überschüsse in Deutschland von 1950 bis 2000: Quellen, Senken und Wirkungen auf die Umwelt, I. N- Überhang der Landwirtschaft. Landnutzung und Landentwicklung 44: Nieder, R., and Richter J., 2000, C and N accumulation in arable soils of West Germany and its influence on the environment - Developments 1970 to Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science 163: Nieder, R., Schollmayer, G., and Richter, J., 1989, Denitrification in the rooting zone of cropped soils with regard to methodology and climate: A review. Biology and Fertility of Soils 8: Rasmussen, P.E., Douglas, C.L., Colins, H.P., and Albrecht, S.L., 1998, Long-term cropping system effects on mineralizable nitrogen in soil. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 13:

129 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 25. Schlesinger, W.H., 1999, Carbon sequestration in soils. Science 284: Stehfest, E., 2006, Modeling of global crop production and resulting N 2 O emissions. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Kassel, 150 p. 27. Trebs, I., Lara, L., Zeri, L. L. M., Gatti, L. V., Artaxo, P., Dlugi, R., Slanina, J., Andreae, M. O., and Meixner, F. X., 2006, Dry and wet deposition of inorganic nitrogen compounds to a tropical pasture site (Rondônia, Brazil). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6: Umweltbundesamt, 1999, Annual Report 1998, 336 p. 29. Umweltbundesamt, 2002, Umweltforschungsplan des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, Forschungsbericht /02 UBA-FB , BMVEL/UBA-Ammoniak-Emissionsinventar der Deutschen Landwirtschaft und Minderungsszenarien bis zum Jahre 2010, 231 p. 30. van Breemen, N., Jenkins, A., Wright, R.F., Beerling, D.J., Arp, W.J., Berendse, F., Beier, C, Collins, R., van Dam, D., Rasmussen, L., Verburg, P.S.J and Wills, M., 1998, Ecosystems 1: Van Drecht, G., Bouwman, A.F., Boyer, E.W., Green, P., and Siebert, S., 2005, A comparison of global spatial distributions of nitrogen inputs for nonpoint sources and effects on river nitrogen export, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19: doi: /2005GB

130 ERSEC conference proceeding Innovative Nitrogen Management Technologies to Improve Agricultural Production and Environmental Protection in Intensive Chinese Agriculture 中国集约化农业中提高农业生产和改善环境保护的创新型氮肥管理技术 M. Roelcke 1, U. Schmidhalter 2, Y.C. Hu 2, M. Schraml 2, B. Mistele 2, R. Nieder 1, T. Müller 3, R. Schulz 3, V. Römheld 3, R. Marggraf 4, H. Bergmann 4, K.-C. Kersebaum 5, Y.X. Miao 6, X.P. Chen 6, Q. Chen 6, Z.L. Cui 6, Z.C. Cai 7, Y. Han 7, J.K. Huang 8, R.F. Hu 8, W.L. Zhang 9 and F.S. Zhang 6 1 Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Germany 2 Center of Life and Food Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich (TUM), Germany 3 Institute of Plant Nutrition University of Hohenheim, Germany 4 Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, University of Göttingen, Germany 5 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Germany 6 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences (CRES), China Agricultural University 7 Nanjing Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) 8 Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) 9 Institute of Soil and Fertilizer, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAS) Abstract New technologies and innovative agricultural practices together with the guidance of policy and decision makers will optimize the agricultural production and protect the environment in intensive Chinese agriculture. The project will strongly contribute to extending technology in China by formulating and implementing agro-tech extension programs, by introducing, testing and demonstrating new techniques, products, innovative management practices and extension work in different representative cropping systems and for different farm sizes. The aim is to reduce the excessive mineral nitrogen fertilization for a highly sustainable and resource-saving production in intensive Chinese agriculture. Improvements in nitrogen and water management will be able to dramatically optimize China s agriculture in terms of productivity, cost efficiency, resilience and self-sufficiency, to protect the environment from 130

131 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management nitrogen pollution, to decrease global warming and to relieve the energy crisis. 摘要对于中国集约化的农业生产体系, 新技术和创新型农业措施的结合, 作为政策制定者的指导, 可以优化农业生产和保护环境 该项目致力于通过农业科技推广项目的制定和实施, 在代表不同作物体系和不同规模农场上进行新技术 产品和创新管理措施的引进, 试验和示范, 在中国进行技术推广 其目的是减少过多的化学氮肥的施用, 建立一个高度可持续和资源节约型的集约化中国农业生产体系 优化的水资源和氮肥管理将能够极大地提高中国农业的生产力水平以及自给自足的能力, 保护环境免受氮的污染, 减少全球变暖和缓解能源危机 1 Introduction A joint Sino-German transfer project is presented by two research groups forming a consortium, comprising various disciplines and involving a number of both German and Chinese partners. The research group of the Technical University of Munich (TUM) comprises Chinese partners from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), the China Agricultural University (CAU), the National Agro-Tech Extension & Service Centre (NATESC), and the Tianjin Academy of Agricultural Sciences (TAAS) in collaboration with the German Industry Partners tec5 AG Oberursel, Merck KGaA Darmstadt, Yara GmbH & Co. KG Dülmen and SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH Halle. The research group, including the Technical University of Braunschweig (TU-BS), the University of Hohenheim, the University of Göttingen and the Leibniz-Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) includes Chinese partners from the Nanjing Institute of Soil Science (ISS) (CAS), the China Agricultural University (CAU) and the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP) (CAS), in collaboration with the German industry partners, SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz GmbH Halle, ABiTEP GmbH Berlin and Pfeffer Agri Consult Ltd Gingen. 2 Rationale/Background for this Project 2.1 Nitrogen fertilizer consumption in China Chemical nitrogen (N) fertilizer consumption in China in 2005 amounted to 30.2 Mt (expressed as pure nutrients), accounting for 33.2% of the world s consumption (IFA, 2006; FAOSTAT, 2007). The resultings annual fertilizer costs to Chinese farmers amount to some 200 billion RMB(Renmenbi Yuan (approx. 20 billion ). Inputs of fertilizer currently comprise over 50% of the costs of agro-production in China. Chemical N fertilizer consumption in China has continued to rise further, especially since 2003 following an increase in grain purchasing prices by the government to sustain production after a short slowdown in the late 1990s (China Agricultural Yearbook, 131

132 ERSEC conference proceeding 2004). Consequently, China is the largest contributor to anthropogenic reactive nitrogen, which is nearly 50% of total anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (i.e. about 70 Tg N yr -1 ) in Asia (Galloway and Cowling, 2002; Dobermann et al., 2005). Reactive N has been defined as all biologically, photochemically, and/or radioactively active forms of N. It comprises a diverse pool including mineral N forms (NO 3 -, NH 4 + ), and gases that are chemically active in the troposphere (NO x and NH 3 ) or such as N 2 O which contributes to the greenhouse effect (Galloway et al., 1995). The mean nitrogen (N) application rate per crop in China was 168 kg N ha -1 in 2005 (China Agricultural Yearbook, 2006), compared to around 60 kg N ha -1 on a world average (FAOSTAT, 2007). In China up to 3 crops per year are grown (mean multiple cropping index 1.2) and therefore the annual application rates are even higher. The N application rates per crop are extremely high in the intensive agricultural regions in eastern China and decline to-wards the western parts of the country (Ju et al., 2004; Fig. 1). In cereal double-crop rotations, the nitrogen fertilizer application rates of 300 kg N ha -1 to winter wheat and 300 kg ha -1 to rice or summer maize are common, while in orchards, annual N amounts of more than 1000 kg N ha-1 yr -1, in vegetable production of up to 3000 kg N ha -1 yr -1 are used (Zhang et al. 2004a, b). These cash crops additionally receive very high amounts of farmyard manure. In contrast, organic manure application to cereal crops in China has strongly declined since the mid-1980s (Ju et al., 2005). Besides the variation among regions and different crops, the N application rate also varies greatly among individual fields or households, reflecting farmers lack of instruction and a certain recalcitrance when applying N fertilizer (Ju et al., 2004). 132

133 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management HEILONGJIANG Unit: kg N per ha sown area Unit: kg N per ha sown area <99 < XINJIANG XINJIANG TIBET TIBET QINGHAI QINGHAI INNER MONGOLIA Figure 1: Provincial differences in average application rates of mineral nitrogen fertilizer per ha for sown area of cereal crops and vegetables in China for the year 2000, calculated from the statistics of sown area and total nitrogen consumption (China Agricultural Yearbook, 2001). The sown area comprises all major agricultural crops, including vegetables. Orchards and grassland are not included (from Ju et al., 2004). 2.2 High N balance surpluses, low N uptake efficiencies HEILONGJIANG JILIN JILIN LIAONING LIAONING TIANJIN The high fertilization rates cause very high N balance surpluses. In intensively irrigated rice/upland and winter wheat double crop rotations in the Taihu Region, mean N balance surpluses of kg N ha -1 were calculated in the mid-late 1990s (Richter and Roelcke, 2000). Similar surpluses are common in the North China Plain. As an example, in Huimin County of Shan-dong Province, N balance surpluses of around 350, 3,325 and 745 kg N ha -1 yr -1 were calculated for the wheat-maize, greenhouse vegetables and apple orchard cropping systems, respectively (Ju et al., 2006). Under orchards and vegetable crops, nitrate (NO 3 - ) accumulations of 2,000-4,000 kg N ha -1 have been found in the 0-2 m soil profile (Ju et al., 2004). The acreage of vegetables, fruits and flowers has been increased by 4.4 times compared to that in the early 1980s, when the average rate of N fertilizer application for cash crops is already 10 times as high as in cereals (Zhang et al. 2004a). At 30%, the N uptake efficiency of chemical N fertilizer in China is dramatically lower than the world average, frequently reaching only 20-30% in rice-based systems and 30-40% in upland crop rotations. As such, it is estimated that at least 20 million tons of applied fertilizers were applied in vain in 2005 alone. The high N balance surpluses and the low N uptake efficiencies are the cause of high N losses. Losses of mineral fertilizer NINGXIA GANSU NINGXIA GANSU BEIJING HEBEI HENAN SICHUAN HUBEI SICHUAN HUBEI HUNAN GUIZHOU HUNAN YUNNAN GUIZHOU GUANGXI YUNNAN GUANGXI SHAANXI SHAANXI BEIJING SHANXI HAINAN SHANXI SHANDONG TIANJIN SHANDONG HENAN GUANDONG HAINAN INNER MONGOLIA HEBEI ANHUI ANHUI JIANGXI GUANDONG ANHUI ANHUI JIANGSU SHANGHAI ZHEJIANG SHANGHAI ZHEJIANG FUJIAN JIANGXI FUJIAN (TAIWAN) JIANGSU (TAIWAN) 133

134 ERSEC conference proceeding nitrogen in N and NW China generally occur as volatilization of ammonia (NH 3 ) or leaching of nitrate (NO 3 - ), especially after flood irrigation, and to a lesser extent as nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. This is due to higher soil ph values and lower organic carbon (C org ) contents of the soils as well as to the sub-humid to semi-arid climate. In S and SE China, transformation losses through nitrification/denitrification (as dinitrogen (N 2 ), N 2 O and nitric oxide (NO) emissions), NH 3 volatilization and leaching of nitrate (NO 3 - ), nitrite (NO 2 - ) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) prevail in the irrigated paddy rice upland winter crop double-cropping systems. 2.3 Gaseous nitrogen emissions from Chinese agriculture Chinese greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are amongst the highest in the world. China has overtaken the United States as the world s leading emitter of CO 2 in 2007 and thus ranks first worldwide among the CO 2 emitting countries, according to a recent study (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2008). The latest report by the IPCC on climate change also explicitly mentions trace gas emissions from agriculture, especially methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), to be targeted in future. Gaseous N emissions from cropland mainly are comprised of ammonia (NH 3 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions. Mean total N 2 O emissions from 96 Mio. ha of cropland in China in 1990 have been estimated at 398 Gg N yr -1 ( Gg N yr -1 ), or about 10% of the world s total (Li et al., 2001; Wang et al., 2001; using the DNDC model by Li et al., 1992). Xing et al. (1998) equally estimated annual N 2 O emissions from croplands in China of 398 Gg N. Based on measured and modeled fluxes (incl. DNDC), Zhang et al. (2004c) further specified this figure as 310 Gg N yr -1 being derived from upland soils and 88 Gg N yr -1 from paddy soils. The DNDC model simulated N 2 O emissions from arable land in China of 340 Gg N for 1995 (Li et al., 2001). Table 1 shows estimates of gaseous N emissions from croplands in China by source (Yan et al., 2003). Total N 2 O emissions from Chinese cropland are estimated at Gg N yr -1 (ibid.). Compared with other East, Southeast and South Asian countries, China is the only country where mineral fertilizer is the dominant source of N 2 O emissions (Yan et al., 2003). In all other countries examined, background emission was the dominant source of N 2 O (Yan et al., 2003). Comparing average fluxes of N 2 O, NO and NH 3 in kg N ha -1 yr -1, the highest fluxes for every single gas emitted occurred in China. This was due to the heavy use of chemical fertilizer and the large animal populations in China (ibid.). Total N 2 O and NH 3 emissions from cropland in China were 15% and 75% higher than the corresponding emissions in India, despite India having more cropland area than China (Yan et al., 2003). It was also shown that the ammonia volatilization losses from chemical fertilizer have exceeded those from animal manure in China (ibid). Based on the figures by Yan et al., (2003), China s estimated contribution to global N 2 O emissions is about one quarter (Norse, 2005). 134

135 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Table 1: Estimation of N2O, NO and NH3 emissions from croplands in China for 1995 by source [Gg N] (compiled from Yan et al., 2003). Source Background Mineral fertilizer Biologically fixed N Crop residue Animal manure N2O NO Total NH (incl. crop residues) Xiong et al. (2008) estimated total N 2 O emissions from mineral fertilizers, animal manure as well as indirect emissions (as a result of NH 3 and NO x emissions and deposition) of 864 Gg N yr -1, total NH 3 volatilization losses of 8,370 Gg N ha -1 yr -1, and losses through leaching and runoff of 2,253 Gg N ha -1 yr -1 from Chinese agroecosystems to the environment ( period). The variation in estimates is due to a number of reasons, such as differences in the number of experiments used to determine emission factors, different upscaling methods etc. These examples clearly show the serious consequences of high nitrogen fertilizer application in China. In emission estimates from croplands in East, Southeast and South Asia by Yan et al. (2003), upland soils had a higher potential for N 2 O and NO emissions, whereas paddy rice fields had a higher potential for NH 3 emissions. Ammonia losses can also be high, however, in the calcareous or alkaline upland soils in N and NW China (e.g. Roelcke et al., 2002; Pacholski et al., 2006; 2008). For an overview on nitrogen losses from fertilizers applied to cereal crops in the North China Plain see Cai et al. (2002b). 2.4 Nitrogen pollution of ground and surface waters The high nitrogen balance surpluses and resulting N losses are also causing serious pollution of ground and surface waters with reactive nitrogen (Zhang et al., 2004a, b). Since the 1970s, the N and P eutrophication of major Chinese lakes and water systems has been increasing rapidly (Zhang et al. 2004a). Currently, the water quality of the major lakes (Dianchi Lake and the Chinese largest lakes of Taihu, Chaohu, Hongzehu, and Dongtinghu) is graded as poor and/or eutrophied according to the classification of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA) of China (Zhang et al. 2004a). In an investigation by Ma (1997), 93.3% of river, 70.6% of lake, and 38.2% of well water samples exceeded the critical WHO value for drinking water of 11.3 mg NO 3 - -N L -1. According to a recent survey, most of the Chinese fresh water lakes are now either in mesotrophic, eutrophic or hypertrophic state, with the area percentage of eutrophic lakes steadily increasing (Jin et al, 2005). From 1995 to 1999, total N and P concentrations in the Taihu Lake have increased from 2.30 and 0.06 mg L -1 to 3.60 and 135

136 ERSEC conference proceeding 0.14 mg N L -1, respectively (Jiangsu Provincial Committee of the Farmers and Workers Democratic Party, 2000). Besides industrial wastes, domestic sewage, fish-raising, and largely untreated wastes from animal husbandry, mineral fertilizers are increasingly being mentioned in official Chinese media as a major cause for the Taihu Lake s eutrophication and the growth of blue-green algae in summer. The whole of Tai Lake became unusable as a source for drinking water in the summer of The dramatic increase in algal blooms (Red Tides) in the East China Sea since the 1990s is also considered a direct consequence of nutrient input into the environment (Roelcke et al., 2005). Numerous other examples could be listed, such as the recent outbreak of algae off the coast of Qingdao (Shandong Province) in July Excessive flood irrigation is conducive to nitrate leaching into shallow groundwater, especially on the light-textured soils in the North China Plain, (Ju et al., 2006). For N Shaanxi Province and the Guangzhong Plain of Shaanxi Province, respectively (NW China), 21.5% and 29.7% of well waters tested had nitrate contents above the critical value (Lu et al., 1998). Estimates of total leaching and surface run-off losses in China vary between <10% (Xing and Zhu, 2000) and >25% (Li and Zhang, 1999) of the fertilizer N applied. A survey of groundwater contamination by nitrate conducted in the municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, as well as in Hebei, Shandong and Shanxi provinces indicated that in 46% of 600 groundwater samples a concentration of 11.3 mg NO 3 - -N L -1 was exceeded (Zhang et al., 1995; 1996), with highest concentrations reaching values of 500 mg L -1. Hereby, the portion of samples exceeding the critical value of 11.3 mg NO 3 - -N L -1 was much higher in intensive vegetable farming regions than in other regions. Results of a recent investigation in Huimin County (Shandong Province) confirmed these findings, with 99% of samples taken in shallow (<15 m depth) wells under greenhouse cropping systems having nitrate concentrations >10 mg N L -1, 53% of the samples exceeding 50 mg N L -1, and 26% exceeding 100 mg N L -1 (Ju et al., 2006). However, up to now the percentage of samples above 10 mg N L -1 was only 1-5% in samples from deeper wells under wheat-maize rotations (>15 m depth), vegetables (>15 m), or apple orchards (both <15 m and >15 m) (ibid.). In Shouguang County (Shandong Province), the annual N surplus after vegetable harvest is more than 709 kg N ha -1 yr -1 causing very serious pollution problems. More than 87.6% of the groundwater wells exceed 10 mg NO 3 - -N L - 1. Particularly in the vegetable growing regions with greenhouses, such as Shouguang County in Shandong Province, the current fertilizer N inputs are so extreme that soil and groundwater quality are strongly deteriorating and eventually crop quality and possibly the health of consumers are at risk (Zhu et al., 2005). Thus, it has been suggested that an ordinance for fertilizer use similar to that in Germany would help China alleviate environmental pollution (Hu and Schmidhalter, 2005). 136

137 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 2.5 Energy aspects Manufacturing of nitrogen fertilizer is the single main cause of energy use, accounting for more than 37% of the total agricultural use. From an energy point of view, such amounts of N losses only in 2005 corresponds to an over-consumption of 60 million tons of standard coal and, at the same time, a direct damage of about 3 billion because of N losses that further compounds into a 7.3 billion loss because of environmental damage. Currently, fertilizer production consumes 25% of the natural gas production and 5% of the coal production in China. However, the combination of the limited per capita resources of gas, oil and coal in China (only 5%, 10% and 60% of the corresponding levels in the world, respectively) and the dramatic increases in energy consumption expected in the near future will only serve to aggravate the situation further. This is especially true in light of estimates that, compared to 2004 levels, the consumption of fertilizer in China will increase another 10.2 million tons by 2010, with the largest share being for N (6.2 million tons) (Dr. Youguo Tian, NATESC, personal communication). 2.6 Economic consequences The economic loss caused by water pollution (non-point agricultural source + pointsource by domestic households and industry) is estimated to be as high as % of China s GDP (Zhang et al., 2004a). Besides environmental and ecosystem damage, nonpoint source pollution also causes considerable economic damage to the society (Norse, 2005). Norse et al. (2001) estimated these costs (e.g., for paying for the reduction of the nitrate content in drink-ing water where levels exceed permitted standards) for China at some million US $ per year. They also estimated the total environmental costs of rice production in China at some 20 billion RMB Yuan (approx. 2.4 billion US $ ) per year (ibid.). At the farm level, recent studies in China estimate the loss of net farm income due to overuse of mineral fertilizers at as much as 15% (Buresh et al., 2004). Their studies also suggest that farmers could reduce N inputs by as much as 30% without yield loss and thus could even have a higher income. 3 Motivation for the Current Project There are currently only few signs of any critical rethinking of the current excessive mineral N fertilization by farmers and most representatives in the Chinese agricultural sector (from the local level to the central government). Food self-sufficiency (until the 1980s) and food security (since the mid-1990s) have been the primary official policy goal for a very long time. Since 2003, and in particular at the National People s Congress annual meeting in March 2006, the problems of rural areas, including environmental pollution, and the strengthening of farmers incomes have been receiving more attention from the Chinese government. In 2003, the state purchasing prices for 137

138 ERSEC conference proceeding grain were raised, and rural taxes and levies began to be lowered. As a consequence, there was a renewed strong increase in the application rates of mineral N fertilizers in 2004 compared to the preceding years, particularly in the northern provinces (China Agricultural Yearbook, 2005). This has, however, only partly been offset by higher grain yields in 2004 (ibid.). Another aspect is that the promotion of local officials is also dependent on successful harvests. Until recently, the physical maximum yield, not the economical optimum yield, was advocated in China. It was thereby overlooked that a reduction of the excessive fertilizer amounts is yield-neutral, and therefore of economic benefit to farmers. A few case studies may highlight the existing scope and scale of reductions in N fertilizer use in intensive agricultural Chinese regions. Chen (2003) and Chen et al. (2003; 2006) showed that after several years of consecutive field experiments on an experimental site close to CAU on the outskirts of Beijing (Dongbeiwang), fertilizer amounts applied in the winter wheat/summer maize double-crop rotation (300 kg N ha -1 crop -1 ) could be reduced by more than 30% (compared to conventional farmers practice) without any decrease in grain yield. However, in these investigations farmers from the surrounding areas were not involved and no effect on the region was obtained. In four-year ( ) consecutive on-farm field experiments in 2 locations of the Taihu Region in southern Jiangsu Province, a reduced mineral N fertilization (by 30-40%) led to an average non-significant decrease in grain yield of summer rice in one location, while an 11% reduction (P<0.01) occurred in the other location, compared to standard farmers practice, respectively (Han et al., 2003; Roelcke et al., 2004; 2005). There were no significant differences in grain yields of winter wheat between the two treatments. Economically, in the case of rice, the reduced fertilization led to a slight loss of profit only in several cases, while in winter wheat there were no large differences in profits between the standard and the reduced fertilization regimes. At the same time, mean N balance surpluses under reduced fertilization were diminished by 50-90%. Preliminary results from a project involving different cropping systems at various sites across China show that newly adapted nutrient management systems, emphasizing the integrated use of nutrients from fertilizers, wastes, soil sources and environmental sources, may reduce N fertilizer input by 5-30% and increase N recovery and grain yield by 10-15%, compared to traditional (present) practices (Zhang et al., 2005). However, the results of the above case studies require further confirmation. Inventories and inquiries of local farmers in the surroundings of the field site close to the CAU confirmed this excessively high application of mineral N fertilizer and most remarkably indicated a pronounced resistance of farmers to results from scientists (Chen 2003; 138

139 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Römheld and Zhang, 2005). In the politicians and farmers view, a reduced application of mineral N fertilizer can only be successfully implemented if such a measure simultaneously results in constant or even higher yields (Römheld and Zhang, 2005). Diminished environmental pollution and a higher economical profitability alone will not be strong enough as driving forces for a reduced N application to reduce current surpluses. As a main priority, the transfer of the above results into farmers practice and their expansion to the different regions is now urgent and essential in order to alleviate the burden on the environment caused by the excessive application of fertilizer N in China s intensive agriculture. 4 Points for Action The required points for action are depicted by the following graph. German/Chinese Research Institutes New technology from German agro-industry, SMEs and universities Recommendations to policy/decision makers Extension services N management for: Cereal crops Vegetables in small and large scale farms Economic/environm. evaluation Modelling & regionalization Increasing agricultural Saving resources: Reducing environmental productivity N fertilizer, water, pollution Sustainable agriculture energy N 2 O, NH 3, NO 3 Figure 2: Summary of points for action 5 Framework of the Sino-German Transfer Project This project was approved by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research BMBF (FKZ: A-F) on Aug. 8, 2008, with a starting date of Sept. 1, 2008 and a 3-year duration. Matching funding by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) was granted on Oct. 22, 2007 (grant no. 2007DFA30850). The project is carried out as part of the Framework Programme of the German Ministry for Education and Research BMBF on Research for Sustainability (Forschung für die Nachhaltigkeit, FONA), adopted in The programme fosters the research, implementation and communication of innovations for sustainable development in a 139

140 ERSEC conference proceeding targeted manner and is thus part of the Sustainability Strategy of the German Federal Government. The study is also presented as part of the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) High-Tech Strategy for Germany adopted in The strategy explicitly aims at pooling the forces of industry and research, at improving the conditions for high-tech start-ups and innovative SMEs, at supporting the more rapid dissemination of new technologies, at strengthening Germany s international position, as well as investing in minds. 5.1 Project goals The overall goal of the project is to reduce the excessive mineral nitrogen fertilization for highly sustainable and resource-saving production in intensive Chinese agriculture, thus decreasing production costs, improving farmers low incomes, achieving a better product quality, decreasing environmental pollution and enhancing food security. Scientific and working achievements will be the transfer and extension of innovative technologies and research results into Chinese agricultural practice and the agricultural extension services. These represent the main priorities of the BMBF s High-Tech Strategy, which offers chances for German agro-industry and SMEs to introduce their innovative products and technologies into the Chinese market. The goals will be achieved by adapting new and existing successful German technologies to Chinese agriculture, by developing new nitrogen (N) fertilization technologies suitable for small farmers and for the large state farms, and by strengthening the applied research and extension. Specific joint objectives will be to carry out field trials on representative farmers field sites and in greenhouses for demonstration purposes and to facilitate the introduction of innovative technologies and practices to farmers. Intelligent enhanced efficiency fertilizers such as newly developed nitrification and urease inhibitors are to be introduced, and successful existing German technology is to be introduced and adapted to the in situ conditions of Chinese agriculture. Further specific objectives are to adopt and disseminate soil and plant quick test technologies to detect the soil fertility and plant nutrient status, to develop simple visualization tools to prepare nitrogen balances on a farm level, to develop powerful spatial sensor systems to non-destructively detect nitrogen surpluses as surveying and management tools for regional and national advisory institutions. Farmers and the agricultural extension services are to be involved and the introduction of innovative production systems will be promoted. Parallel agro-economical investigations will be included, and the N cycle will be simulated on a field scale using a model for N advisory purposes which is to be coupled with a GIS for regionalization. 140

141 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The integrated objectives will be to prepare and introduce optimized fertilization and management strategies, to carry out round-table discussions among various interest groups as well as training sessions and scenario analyses for the various stakeholders involved and finally to make recommendations for action to policy makers and decision makers. 5.2 Expected added value The main expected added value to be obtained by this project can be summarized as follows: Land use based climate protection: According to the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2006), the worldwide emissions from agriculture amount to 10-12% of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In particular, agriculture is responsible for 60% of all nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and 50% of all methane (CH 4 ) emissions. The emission factors for N 2 O following application of mineral N fertilizers published in the IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 2006) are 1.0% for upland soils and 0.3% for paddy soils. This project will make strategic recommendations to Chinese political decision makers with the aim of reducing GHG emissions and protecting the environment from N inputs. Climate protection by saving energy: Roughly speaking, 1 liter of oil is required for producing 1 kg of synthetic N fertilizer. Currently, the energy requirement in modern plants for producing 1 kg NH 3 is 27 MJ (Jenssen and Kongshaug, 2003). The efficiency of average Chinese fertilizer plants is likely to be lower, however. BMBF High-tech strategy on climate protection: This projects strongly supports the efforts by the German government to help achieve a sustainable reduction of climate relevant gases from agriculture (N 2 O, CH 4, CO 2 ) in an emerging nation of global importance such as China. The envisaged regional calculations of mitigation options for regional fertilizer savings and reduced N 2 O emissions are also very important as possible future measures in the framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Commercial advantages for the German economy: Wide ranging markets for German products in the environmental sector are expected to be opened by the increased use of innovative German technologies in China. Integration of the whole range of research, participation of the major actors in the field: For the first time, the whole breadth of university and academy research, applied research, relevant industrial enterprises and extension services has been integrated within the bounds of this collaborative project. To give a few examples, the Chinese partners from the Nanjing Institute of Soil Science (CAS) have been Lead authors of IPCC Reports; many of CCAP s senior staff have been members of the Working Groups or Task Forces of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), a high-level advisory 141

142 ERSEC conference proceeding body to the Chinese government in the field of environment and development and advisors to the Chinese government, etc. Synergies with other Sino-German projects: There are close links to other ongoing Sino-German activities in the environmental field, such as the International Research Training Group (RTG) financed by the DFG and the Chinese Ministry of Education (MOE) on Modeling Material Flows and Production systems for Sustainable Resources Use in Intensified Crop Production in the North China Plain. With its focus on basic-oriented research, the RTG may provide an optimal supplement to the present BMBF-MOST project which focuses on the application and transfer of results into Chinese agricultural and administrative practice. 5.3 Expected project outcomes On a more direct level, the following major project outcomes are expected: Ecological and health benefits for China: These will be obtained due to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, by helping China meet its national and international climate protection goals, by achieving a better product quality, e.g., lower noxious nitrate levels in agricultural products, especially vegetables, by a better environmental quality and protection of natural resources, by a lowering of the societal costs of non-point source pollution from agriculture as well as through health protection. Economic benefits for China: There is great potential for improvements in N management, the introduction of high-tech strategies into the Chinese agricultural advisory system, a higher agricultural productivity, an improvement of farmers economic situation, a rise in income of rural households, the lowering of energy costs through reduction of fertilizer and fossil fuel imports, and less energy consumption for synthetic fertilizer production. Economic benefits for Germany. These include development and sales of (via joint ventures): Eco-efficient fertilizers (urease inhibitors, nitrification inhibitors, N stabilizer for organic fertilizers, microbial products), quick test technologies, sensor technologies, water-saving irrigation systems and agricultural machinery. Both sides will benefit from: The development and testing of patentable applications, such as newly-developed sensors. Prospects of scientific and/or technical benefits: In the medium term, these will include the bringing together of different Chinese stakeholders and target groups (farmers, consumers, water works, etc.) and their being made aware of the interdependency of their actions, a strengthened communication and public relations on all politically relevant levels as well as on the local level, an instant transfer into and use of the results in Chinese agricultural practice and the extension services, a training effect for the various stakeholders involved, in particular for farmers, as well as the promotion of education of young scientists in Germany and China. 142

143 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management In the long term, closer contacts will have been established between Chinese scientists and administrative structures, the advisory system and political decision makers, Chinese environmental legislation will be included and suggestions for possible improvements will be given, a positive image of German S&T to Chinese politicians and administrators regarding innovative research and extension will be conveyed, S&T cooperation between Germany and China will be intensified, and the results will also serve as an example for other regions outside China with similar socio-economical and environmental conditions. 5.4 New technologies and innovative agricultural practices Currently, in highly developed agricultural production systems of industrialized countries new technologies are applied to increase productivity and/or economical efficiency. Such technologies and progressive agricultural practices have to be introduced into Chinese agriculture, under consideration of the Chinese agricultural systems with predominance of extreme small-scale farms, but with a substantial proportion of large state farms. For the introduction of technologies, a close cooperation with the agro-industry is a prerequisite (Figure. 3) New technologies N-Sensor technology Green Windows technology TUM NO 3 Quick test package Enhanced efficiency fertilizers YARA, Tec5, TUM CAU, CAS Basis sciences Universities & Research Institutes CAAS, CAS YARA, Tec5, TUM CAU,CAAS, CAU,CAAS, NATESC NATESC YARA, Tec5, TUM YARA, Tec5, TUM TUM CAAS, CAU, NATESC, TAAS Merck, TUM CAAS, CAU, NATESC, TAAS, CAS Applied research Institutes Extension Offices CAAS, CAAS, CAU, CAU, NATESC, NATESC, TAAS, TAAS, CAS CAS Merck, Merck, TUM TUM BASF,COMPO, SKW, TUM BASF,COMPO, SKW, TUM CAU, CAAS CAU, CAAS BASF, COMPO, SKW, TUM CAU, CAAS Farmers (family & state managed farms/cereals & vegetables & cash crops) Figure 3: Applications of new technologies and interaction among partners. Specific implementation approach (TUM coordinated research group) Key among these is several quick-test technologies developed recently in Germany that detect the soil fertility status to enable immediate on-site assessments of the needs of plants (Schmidhalter, 2005; Schmidhalter and Hu, 2008). By complementing these tests with the recently adopted Green-windows technology developed by TUM, optimized nitrogen supplies can be targeted precisely to meet the needs of plants. In adopting such 143

144 ERSEC conference proceeding strategies and methods, Chinese farmers will thus complement their extensive experience-based skills with knowledge-based ones. The further application of highly advanced Precision Farming technologies developed in Germany (Schmidhalter et al., 2008) that needs to be tailored to the Chinese extension service and state-farm levels will optimize nitrogen management. For the time being, these technologies will be implemented in the Chinese agricultural system. This will lead in the medium term to a new platform of satellite-based supported advisory systems supporting traditional advisory systems. The parallel use of newly developed and highly successful enhanced efficiency nitrogen fertilizers with a particular focus on the most widely used urea fertilizers will allow for further substantial improvements in nitrogen use efficiency accompanied by a massive abatement of gaseous nitrogen losses and decreases in nitrate losses (Weber et al, 2004). 5.5 Quick test technology package, Green-windows TUM technology and sensor technology Although substantial scientific progress has been achieved towards a better understanding of nitrogen management, and appropriate measures have been suggested, the transfer of such knowledge remains extremely difficult considering the structure of Chinese agriculture. Obstacles to this are the farmers educational level, the small acreages managed by the individual farmer, (generally not more than 0.3 ha), the parttime character of farming activities and the eventual costs of improved measures. Therefore new approaches have to be developed to comply with the current situation. This includes the implementation and dissemination of cheap and efficient management technologies accompanied by systematic bottom-up and top-down approaches to transfer such knowledge to practice. 6 Application of Quick Test Technology and Extension Service A key-role to these achievements can be ascribed to highly efficient farmers and farmer advisors participatory on-farm demonstrations. The recently developed quick-test procedure by the Chair of Plant Nutrition (TUM) fulfils such a need and allows the measurement of the soil nitrate content on-site in the quickest time ever. Recent achievements by Merck enable us to measure soil nitrate in a simplified and economic way. Still further agronomical advice is badly needed to persuade the users. This includes, as a further management option, the residual nitrate (N min ) management concept. However, the so-called N min concept is still in its infancy in China and is hardly known outside the university level. Therefore, new ways to disseminate such knowledge have to be developed. This will be done in a large-scale activity supported by national 144

145 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management and provincial advisory and extension institutions from China. 6.1 Green-windows TUM technology The N min -concept itself will not be sufficient, but has to be accompanied by a strategic measure to demonstrate the nitrogen balance. A simplified tool to achieve this, the Green windows TUM concept has been developed by the Chair of Plant Nutrition from the Technical University of Munich, and will further be incorporated into this project. The Green windows TUM concept allows the trained farmer to judge the optimum fertilizer intensity at optimum yield level and at the same time allows the extension specialist to judge the farmers practice. The combined approach allows on one hand a simple visualization by trained farmers and on the other hand the simple acquirement of this information by non-destructive highly advanced sensor techniques (Schmidhalter et al., 2006). The latter will be important to extrapolate to the county (provincial) level. Green windows will be established on a yearly increasing number of fields to reach in the end a high coverage throughout China. 6.2 Sensor technology At the same time, site-specific optimum fertilization will be detected by extremely powerful spatial sensor technologies to promote the best management practices countywide (Mistele and Schmidhalter, 2008). This is seen as a very promising technique to support the extension service with cheaply acquired information. The sensor systems further allow region-wide surveys of the current agricultural nitrogen fertilization practice. Indices developed allow the collecting of detailed information about the farmers practice. This is seen as the cheapest and most efficient method to gather information on a large scale about the current fertilizer inputs. This information will again allow the strategical targeting of the best management practices in a sitespecific manner. In this regard highly developed sensor technology will not be used directly by the small scale farmers, but serve the extension services and environmental authorities as powerful advisory tools. In contrast to the small scale farming, the advanced sensor technology can directly be implemented on the large state farms with the goal to optimize fertilizer inputs to the local and plant-specific needs. This again will be supported by the quick test technology to analyse immediately and cheaply on site the soil supply of available nitrogen. 6.3 Enhanced efficiency fertilizer Higher energy prices have caused a rapid increase in the price of nitrogen. Enhanced efficiency fertilizers (nitrification inhibitors, urease inhibitors) represent effective means of 145

146 ERSEC conference proceeding ameliorating the economic effects and ecological consequences. They allow more N to be used by the plant, less N released to the ground and surface water, saving time and effort by reducing applications, better quality products, reduced N into the air thus reducing NH 3 and NO x emitted from agricultural sources. The environmental benefits of decreasing NO 3 - leaching and the production of nitrous and nitric oxides by denitrification through inhibition of nitrification are even more important, where an excess of N is applied. One of the most promising ways to improve the efficiency of urea is the use of urease inhibitors. New enhanced efficiency fertilizers developed by BASF or SKW are highly effective and make its use an attractive management practice for decreasing the potentially harmful effects associated with nitrogen fertilizers and strengthen the economic benefit. They will be intensively evaluated in different cropping systems within the scope of this project, particularly by the partners from TU Braunschweig. Such achievements can only be obtained by medium to long-term endeavors. To be successful, both bottom-up and top-down approaches will have to be included involving the most relevant institutions from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) to advisory institutions from the national level and selected provincial to county and community levels. Top-down and bottom-up approaches will demonstrate the success of these actions on various levels. A highly effective platform involving most relevant Chinese organizations on the academic and advisory/administrative level has already been initiated within the bounds of a collaborative project. Active participants include the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), the China Agricultural University (CAU), the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), the Chinese National Agro-Tech Extension & Service Centre of the Agricultural Ministry (NATESC), provincial and local extension services and authorities among others, as well as the German partners Merck, YARA, SKW. The broad scope of these partners provides an ideal, initial foundation upon which to quickly build towards the goal of improving Chinese agricultural efficiency. The common efforts will lead to further substantial improvements enabling Chinese farmers to reduce costs and fertilizer usage, thereby also helping to reduce the negative impact of nitrogen fertilization on the environment. Altogether, these achievements will substantially boost the agricultural nitrogen use efficiency in China and benefit the environment dramatically so as to yield ecological foods in a green environment. Without question, these end results will represent strong incentives for both the Chinese and German economies. 7 Specific Implementation Approach (TU Braunschweig Coordinated Research Group) The presented project focuses on transfer and extension. It is crucial to conduct field trials on sites managed by farmers, both for their practical relevance as well as the 146

147 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management dissemination and application of the results (e.g. Buresh et al., 2005; Peng et al., 2005). Apart from the earlier cooperation project in the Taihu Region between the Nanjing ISS (CAS) and Braunschweig Technical University (VW II/69 948), and the GTZ- Programme ESIA in cooperation with the MOA, all previous Sino-German cooperative projects carried out their experimental work on sites belonging to universities or research academies, and therefore only had a limited effect on the outlying agricultural practice in China. In the Taihu Region project, local administrations and agricultural bureaus had been involved from the very beginning. The project therefore was able to achieve a transfer of the field experiment results and the derived reduced fertilizer recommendations to a wider area beyond the experimental locations proper (Roelcke et al., 2004; 2005). 7.1 Agronomic implementation approach The implementation approach of the TU Braunschweig coordinated research group in this project will mainly include information and education measures via on-farm experiments with pilot farmers, involvement of the local administrations and the agricultural extension system, of different interest groups (e.g., water works and farmers organizations, consumers), training sessions and scenario analyses for the various stakeholders. It will also comprise research on nitrogen, simulation of the agricultural nitrogen cycle including regionalization, and agro-economical instruments. In the end, recommendations will be made to policy makers, including the Chinese government, for regulatory measures ( Command-and-control ), such a compulsory rules controlling N fertilizer application rates (e.g., for certain watershed areas), as well as economic or fiscal instruments, such as removal of all direct or indirect subsidies on the production and sale of commercial fertilizers (in China, subsidies are in place for energy used for N fertilizer production, Norse, 2005). Joint farmer-research management demonstration trials on representative farmers field sites and in greenhouses for vegetable production will be carried out in 5 pilot counties exemplary of intensive cropping systems in northern and southern China. The selection of locations was carried out, not only on the basis of varying natural conditions, but also by taking their economical development into account, in order to have a range of different economic conditions. For the upland crop rotations in northern China, the pilot counties Quzhou (Hebei Province) and Huimin (Shandong Province) were selected. Shouguang County (Shandong Province) is representative of the intensive vegetable production areas in N China. For the rice-based cropping systems in southeastern China, Yixing and Huai an City were chosen as pilot counties in Jiangsu Province. The design of the field experiments for demonstration purposes has jointly been agreed on between the Chinese partners of the CAU, the ISS (CAS) and the CCAP (CAS), and the German partners involved. It is to be carried out 147

148 ERSEC conference proceeding according to the so-called 3+x approach. In each of the selected counties field trials on several farmers sites in one location will be conducted. On each farmer s field site, the following three main nitrogen fertilization treatments will be investigated:1) Conventional (local farmers practice) N fertilization, 2) reduced N fertilization, 3) a model-based fertilization, 4) Additionally, a small zero-n plot will be included. Crosswise, two alternative ( x ) agronomical treatments within each fertilization level, according to regional conditions, will be compared. One such factor will be improved irrigation methods in cereal production in northern China and the testing of fertilization methods in vegetable production. Specially designed field trials will offer German and Chinese agro-industry a platform for the testing of their technologies and products under real conditions in China. We will thus ensure that the innovative products of our industrial partners can show their advantages to deliver fourfold: higher profits for farmers, a better environmental situation, ensuring food security in China and greater market opportunities for German enterprises. In all field experiments, the N min method will be applied which can be used either separately or in combination with the quick tests to be carried out by the TUM research group (Schmidhalter, 2005). This will serve not only for the determination of the soil N status and the crop demand but also as an important resource for the calibration and validation of the nitrogen advisory model under the conditions of Chinese agriculture. Nitrogen balances will be calculated on field, as well as regional (county-based) scales to obtain a measure of the excess N under a specific rotation and to quantify the nitrogen emission potential. These calculations are an important tool to quantify the N efficiency of management systems and to control environmental quality. 7.2 Socio-economic implementation approach Agro-economical and institutional investigations The aim of the agricultural economic research is the comparison of possible monetary effects (calculated on a field as well as on a farm level) resulting from nitrogen fertilization. To serve this purpose, standard gross margins, making the comparison possible between the current and the target economy, will be calculated. Besides the common calculation per hectare, it is intended to present the results similarly in labour hours per day. Model calculations (based on linear programming and nonlinear approaches) of the farm enterprises, as well as the farm households, will show the effects of the tested new fertilizers in cooperation with our enterprise partners on profits and welfare. In this way, a scale of comparison will be produced for extra-agricultural activities to form the basis for later structural measures. These results have a special meaning with regard to the situation in Jiangsu Province. The southern part of the province shows a high economic stage of development (with Yixing as a typical example), which leads to a strong competition between the primary and secondary 148

149 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management economizing sectors over the land Participatory approach and transfer of results Top-down approaches ( command and control measures ) have shown significant effects in solving worldwide environmental problems in the recent decades. However, in solving non-point source groundwater pollution, top-down approaches meet their limitations as the control costs easily exceed the efficiency level. On the other hand suasion measures in most cases, if only based on voluntary commitment, have shown to be unsuitable as they offer the chance of moral hazard and consequentially result in a failure to achieve the targeted goals. In order to achieve a real transfer and extension of the research results and practical recommendations, this project therefore chose a fourfold approach: 1) On the one hand, implement suasion instruments accompanied by a top-down approach, mainly based on the excellent relations the Chinese partners from the CCAP, the CAU and the ISS have with decision makers of Chinese agricultural and environmental policies in rural areas. For the success of the approach, the foreseen unique involvement of provincial, county and local administrative structures and the governmental extension services is essential. The peculiarities of the Chinese administration system can lead to a rapid multiplying effect (both vertically and horizontally) in the propagation of positive local experiences. 2) Farmers in the selected pilot counties will be approached via the local agricultural technical stations or agricultural technical extension centers. The field trials on representative farmers field sites will serve demonstration purposes and facilitate the introduction of innovative technologies and practices to farmers, policy makers and especially decision makers. 3) The approach should also include round-table discussions and training. The discussions will include a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats)-analysis, which will make it possible to identify market opportunities for innovative fertilizers and effectors on the Chinese markets for the German partner enterprises. The market analysis will allow German companies to decide whether to enter the Chinese market or not. 4) Major recommendations regarding N fertilization and nutrient management in general will be forwarded to relevant Chinese institutions (MOST, MOA, MLR, SEPA), the Central Government (State Council) as well as subordinate institutions. The CCAP, a think tank of the CAS, is experienced in making specific recommendations on agricultural policies to the Chinese government (e.g., Sonntag et al., 2005). 7.3 Modeling and regionalization implementation approach Field-scale simulations using the HERMES model (Kersebaum & Beblik, 2001) for 149

150 ERSEC conference proceeding northern China and the model by Han et al. (2003) for the rice-based systems in southern China will be carried out to predict the impact of different N fertilization and management strategies on crop growth and N losses. Regionalization will be achieved by coupling the model with a GIS. 1) Soil, management and weather data of field plots will be used for a deterministic simulation of the soil-crop interactions regarding water and N dynamics. Time series measurements of soil and crop state variables on these sites will be used to prove the model under Chinese conditions and to adjust specific parameters if necessary. 2) On selected experimental fields (see Agronomic implementation approach) a model-based fertilization/irrigation recommendation will be applied to demonstrate the capability of the derived management scheme compared to the other treatments to farmers and consultants. On all experimental sites, the performance of applied and virtual fertilization practices will be evaluated by simulations to demonstrate their effects on crop yield, residual soil mineral nitrogen after harvest and nitrogen leaching. 3) Based on regional thematic maps for soils, groundwater level, farming systems and climate zoning within a GIS, a regional database will be elaborated, which will be used for a regionalized site specific simulation of the nitrogen dynamics among various cropping systems. 4) Long-term scenario simulations with varying cropping systems and management schemes will be performed for different site conditions and used to derive site specific best management practices integrating cultivation, fertilization and irrigation strategies. These recommendations will be regionalized and disseminated as guidelines to the extension services and policy makers giving two target options: 1) maximum crop yield with a minimum fertilization amount, and 2) ensuring a specific water quality standard including a risk for yield reduction, which will be calculated and used for further economic analyses. 8 Conclusion Each of the different project components forms an integral aspect for achieving the common goals. For example, optimized fertilization schemes will jointly be developed by the Chinese and German partners involved, based on the results of the field experiments, the agro-economical investigations and the simulation work. The estimated fertilization response curves for crop yields will be used to estimate an economical optimum in conjunction with the agro-economical work. The project also serves as a platform enabling companies to test their products under the reality of China s intensive agricultural conditions. 150

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156 ERSEC conference proceeding Ecology-oriented Sustainable Water Resources Management in Coastal Area of Shandong Peninsula 山东半岛沿海地区生态型可持续水资源管理 Wang Weiping,Sun Xiaobin and Qu Shisong School of City Development, University of Jinan Abstract A model of optimal water resources allocation for multiple water sources, multiple engineering facilities and multiple users was established based on engineering planning and advantages/disadvantages analysis. With this model for water allocation in Laizhou city of Shandong province, a long series of monthly balance of water demand and supply for each computation zone for 4-planning level years was simulated and analyzed. The maximum water resources bearing capacity was proposed under the conditions of ensuring adequate river flow into the sea and maintaining groundwater balance in the plain area. 摘要本文以山东省莱州市为例, 在工程规划的基础上, 结合滨海平原地区海水入侵问题, 分析现状优劣势因素, 以平原区地下水采补平衡方程和要求一定的相对入海出境水量为生态需水约束条件, 建立水资源优化配置模型, 长系列模拟分析了 4 个水平年不同措施组合下, 不同水资源分区的月供需平衡状况 在保证一定的相对入海水量, 未来需水和工程条件下, 提出了 2020 年后区域内最大水资源开发能力 1 Introduction The economy in the costal area of the Shandong peninsula is relatively developed with a sharp gap between water demand and supply, groundwater vulnerable to seawater intrusion, uneven time-space development degree of water resources. The large amount of water use in the area causes the problems of more water resources shortage and serious seawater intrusion. The ecological water demand was considered inadequately in water resources optimal allocation. The thinking about water resources allocation always considered the amount of water flow into the sea as the potential of water resources development, which has been utilized as completely as possible in the past. Although the 156

157 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management ecological water demand is beginning to be considered in the water resources planning now, it is still difficult question as to how and how much to determine the ecological water demand. Laizhou city is located in the northwest of the Shandong peninsula, east coast of the Laizhou Gulf with a coastline of km and a total area of km 2. The hilly and plain areas are about equal. Metamorphic rock, granite and diorite are distributed in the hilly area. The sand aquifer is widely distributed in the plain area. The precipitation between different years and within a year is unevenly distributed with an average annual precipitation of 640 mm, 74% of which falls in the wet season from June to September. The rivers in this area, with short routes, unstable and fluctuating flow (e.g., sudden flooding in wet season and very low or no flow in dry season), are intermittent and recharged by rainfall. Five out of the 15 major rivers have a basin area greater than 100 km 2 each. The case study in Laizhou City as representative of the eastern coastal area was conducted. A model for ecological water resources optimal allocation is established in order to determine the optimal scheme of water resources development under the condition of ensuring the comparative certain water amount flow into the sea by a simulated analysis of the monthly balance between water supply and demand. 2 Condition of Ecological Water Resources Optimal Allocation for Laizhou Water resources optimal allocation includes reasonable space-time and user allocation in terms of water quantity and quality. Many current factors directly influence the feasibility of optimal allocation of water resources.. It is necessary to judge the significance and feasibility of carrying out ecological water resources optimal allocation by analysing the advantageous and disadvantageous factors of water resources development and utilization. 2.1 Advantageous factors 1. In recent years, a developing economy and negative population growth are the most important factors of ecology and environment. 2. Laizhou city has a geographical advantage of larger catchments area of surface water in hilly areas and sand aquifer in the plain areas. There is a larger potential space for water resources regulation. 3. There are few enterprises with large water consumption and serious water pollution. The quality of surface water is generally good, which is favourable for optimal water allocation in terms of water quality. 4. Wanghe Groundwater Reservoir and the Project of Water Transfer to Jiaodong under construction provide favourable engineering conditions for optimal water resources 157

158 ERSEC conference proceeding allocation. Wanghe Groundwater Reservoir has a total capacity of million m 3 with a water surface area of 69.3 km 2, which changes surplus flood water in wet season into groundwater by retention barrages, absorbing wells, division canals and recharge reservoir. The main canal of the Project of Water Transfer to Jiaodong passes through the western plain of Laizhou from the south to north. According to the planning, 13 million m 3 of water from the Yellow River and 3 million m 3 of water from the Yangtze River will be diverted through this canal. A conjunctive water supply of local water, water from the Yellow River and the Yangtze River will be formed in the future. 5. The potential of surface water resources development still exists based on the present water engineering. 6. There is a large potential for urban wastewater treatment recycling. The drainage pipe system is not completed yet and the sewage collection rate and its treatment rate is 40%. Now the recycle-water rate is very low. The potential for reusing treated water for power stations and agriculture is large. 7. The distribution of regional water resources is uneven in Laizhou. The precipitation is gradually reduced from southeast to northwest and the river basins vary in the degree of water resources development and the balance of water supply and demand. Large amounts of water flowing into the sea or leaving the area in flood seasons of wet years provide favourable conditions for building a water facility network and achieving optimal water allocation (Wang Weiping et al, 2004). Water amounts for agricultural irrigation in the coastal plain area are large. The irrigation area accounts for 71% of the total land, 74% of the population and 82% of the industry output, but 57% of the total water resources is almost shallow groundwater. It is possible to transfer water from the hilly area to the coastal plain area. In addition, surplus flood can be used for recharging the groundwater through surface water storage facilities and groundwater reservoirs in the plain area. 2.2 Disadvantageous factors 1. Laizhou city still belongs to a serious water shortage area, with less than 500 m 3 of water per capita, even though adding the future water transfer from the Yellow River and the Yangtze River to the present 392 m 3 per capita. 2. The groundwater environment is so vulnerable that further seawater intrusion could be easily caused by groundwater overdraft when the contradiction between water supply and demand of agriculture irrigation in dry years is sharp. Once it happens, it is difficult to restore. The area of seawater intrusion once reached 234 km 2 in There are only 6 medium-scaled reservoirs with a total capacity of millions m 3 in the research area. So, the capability of carryout storage is low. 4. Laizhou is rich in mineral resources. The water and soil losses, resulting from the human activities of mining, are gradually becoming severe. 5. The system of storm water drainage and sewage is not separated. The drainage 158

159 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management pipelines are intercepted and combined which have no benefit for sewage treatment and sewage recycling. From above description, it can be seen that the advantages and disadvantages exist simultaneously for water use in the Shandong peninsula. By building a water-resources engineering network and specific planning, the advantages can be used best and the disadvantages could also be changed into advantages, so as to guarantee the sustainable social, economic and ecological development as well as the living level of people. 3 Models of Ecological Water Resources Optimal Allocation The model of multiple water sources, engineering, and users for water allocation is established by GAMS (A.Brooke et al, 1988), using the principles of a linear program. 3.1 Conceptualization of water resources system The first-class zoning takes the boundary between the hilly and plain as a border. And the second-class zoning is zoned as covering part of the same area, i.e., overlapping area, of the basin and the township. There are 15 rivers and 16 townships in Laizhou. Some small basins and townships are merged in order to more conveniently compute and analyze by model. 14 water resources zones are finalized at last. 3.2 Objectives function Under the condition of limited water resources or water resources shortage area, the minimum water loss and water deficit of the system is chosen as objectives of the model (Ganhong et al, 1995), i.e., the reservoir capacity at the end of each month of the surface water and groundwater reservoir is maximum, the water deficit amount is minimum simultaneously. { λ RV + λ GV λ ZW λ ZW λ ZW } OBJ = max 1 i 2 i 3 mai 4 midi 5 Where RV i is surface water reservoir capacity at the end of month i. GV i is groundwater reservoir capacity at the end of month i. ZW mai is agriculture water deficit in month i. ZW midi is industrial and domestic water deficit amount in month i. ZW oi is surplus water in month i. oi Where 1 λ 2 λ 3 λ 4 λ 5 λ are weighted coefficient determined by regulating and calculating based on the actual situation and decision. i is the month. 159

160 ERSEC conference proceeding 3.3 Main constraint The main constraint is as follows for month i. The water balance of reservoir RV 1 =RV 0 +W r +W up -W i -W a -W q -W e Where RV 1 is the water storage capacity of reservoir at the end of the month, RV 0 is the water storage capacity at the initial month, W r is the natural inflow of reservoir; W up is coming water in all the nodes of upstream, W i is the amount of water supplied for industry and living, W a is the amount of water supplied for agriculture, W q is the amount of water overflow, W e is the losses of evaporation, seepage of the reservoir. The water balance equation at the nodes of river nets W n +NW up -NW do -W us =0 Where W n is amount of inflow at the nodes, NW up is water coming from upstream, NW do is the amount of water supply for downstream, W us is water division at the nodes. Water balance equation for the area of water use ZW s +ZW up +DG z +ZW mi +ZW ma -W dd -W di -W da -ZW dn =0 Where ZW s is the amount of water supply of local surface water, ZW up is coming water from other basins, DG z is the amount of ground water, ZW mi is water shortage in industry and living, ZW ma is water shortage in agriculture, W dd is water demand in domestic use, W di is water demand of industry, W da is water demand of agriculture, ZW dn is the amount of outflow to other basins. Water balance equation of groundwater reservoir GV 1 =GV 0 +G r +G p +G f +G I -G d -G e -G o Where GV 1 is groundwater storage at the end of the month, GV 0 is groundwater storage at the beginning of the month, G r is recharge water by irrigation infiltration, G p is recharge water by precipitation infiltration, G f is recharge water by rivers and canals, G i is lateral seepage recharge water, G d is the amount of groundwater pumping, G e is the amount of phreatic water evaporation, G o is lateral seepage 160

161 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management outflow water. The relationship and relative parameters of the shallow groundwater are as below: The recharging by precipitation G p =α P F Where G p is recharge water by precipitation, α is coefficient of precipitation recharge, P is the amount of precipitation and F is the area. The recharging by irrigation G r =β I Where G r is the amount of recharging by irrigation, β is the coefficient of recharging by irrigation and I is the amount of irrigation water. Recharging by river course seepage: G fr =η L Where G fr is the amount of recharging by river course seepage, η is the coefficient of lateral seepage by river course; L is the length of river course. The seepage by canal system G fc =γ(1-η)s Where G fc is the quantity of seepage by canal system, γ is the revised coefficient of seepage recharge, η is the effective utilization coefficient of the water conveyance and S is the passing flow. Other parameters: In general, the evaporation of groundwater can be neglected when the depth of groundwater is greater than 4m. The infiltration of coefficient of precipitation is related to the rock properties in the unsaturated zone and is the function of the depth of groundwater table Z, while Z is increasing, α is increasing first and decreasing later. The coefficient of irrigation infiltration is the same, it is decreasing when the depth of groundwater is going to be bigger and the irrigation quota is getting smaller. 161

162 ERSEC conference proceeding 3.4 Ecological constraint The ecological water requirement in the model is reflected by related ecological governing indexes as constraint, such as water amount flowing into the sea or flowing out of the area and mean annual groundwater balance of mining and recharge. The indexes of ecological and optimal water resources allocation can be seen in table 3-1. By the water balance equilibrium equation of node flow into the sea in rivers and the restricted equation of discharge capacity of the canal, the water amount flow into the sea will remain the same. In 2005, the water amount flow into the sea was the same as the current situation. In the planning year, the ecological water demand or water flow into the sea is determined through multi-scheme regulation with the water flow into the sea greater than or equal to 40% average monthly surface runoff in 2010 and 2020 and equal to 40% average monthly surface runoff in The ecological water demand should be defined based on the principle and target of ecological protection. Now, there are many internationally prevalent calculation methods, one of which is the Tennant method (Wu Jinsong, 2002) in which Tennant reached the conclusion that the minimum runoff of river is not lower than 10%, 30% and 60%, respectively, of the normal in order to maintain the survival of aquatic creatures, the good aquatic creature s habitat and to carry out various entertainments. For the semi-arid and economically developed Shandong Peninsula, it is hard to realize the plan holding 60% of runoff flowing into sea and developing 40% of runoff because there is not any potential to build water resources storage facilities continuously. Considering the balance of ecological water demand and social, economic development as well actual production force conditions, the 40% of monthly surface runoff flowing into the sea or out of Laizhou, as the basic condition of building ecological water resources engineering network, is determined through comparing various schemes. A major problem of the ecological environment facing the Laizhou city is the seawater intrusion. The purpose to control the seawater intrusion development is realized by keeping a balance between the groundwater exploitation and recharge. The seawater intrusion restoration mainly depends on groundwater recharge by flood in a long term except limitation and reduction of groundwater exploitation for agricultural irrigation water. So, it is vital to maintain a certain amount of relative water flow into the sea under the condition of keeping reasonable economic development demand for water. It is more important to transform the surface runoff into the groundwater runoff and keep the stable groundwater table in the relative water flow into the sea. Because the groundwater environment is very vulnerable, the computation time interval month simulating analysis on the ecological target is not adequate. The ecological water demand should be further studied combining groundwater numerical model and ecological hydrology deeply. 162

163 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Table 3-1: Indexes system of ecological water resources optimal allocation in Laizhou Index category Order Index Unit 2005 Planning in Recycle water factor % Planning in 2020 Water resources development and utilization Water and soil resources protection Mean annual Plain area groundwater mining and use factor Hilly area Mean annual water amount flowing into the sea and out of the area % Agriculture water deficit factor % Wastewater treatment ratio % Qualification rate of water quality for water function zone % Ratio of split- flow of storm and sewage in urban area % Ratio of improved water and soil losses and before % Hydrological series The monthly precipitation series from 1970 to 2003 of 20 rainfall stations in the area were chosen and the corresponding runoff series for each basin were calculated by empirical formula compared with some observed runoff data restored from human activities. These data provided the basis of the model simulation. 3.6 Operational scheme of model 4 model operating schemes of 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 are drawn up considering 5 engineering measures. Others can be seen in Table 3-1. The set of detailed model simulation schemes is seen in following Table 3-2. Table 3-2: Model operational schemes Engineering measures Local water resources development The project diverting Yellow water to Jiaodong area Wastewater treatment reuse Fixed agriculture water demand Project of water resources engineering network The scheme of 2005 takes the engineering, level of water demand, and water resources conditions and wastewater treatment capacity in the present year of 2005 as the basic input condition of the model. This scheme emphases the validation by checking the modeling output and actual situation of the present year, so as to verify the reasonableness and reliability of the model system. 163

164 ERSEC conference proceeding According to predicted water demand and water resources conditions in 2010 and 2020, wastewater treatment recycling capacity, local water resources development potential, agriculture irrigation water saving level will be continually raised for the schemes of 2010 and 2020 and a new water resources engineering network will be built. The project of diverting water from the Yellow River to Jiaodong area will supply water to Laizhou city in allocated quotas and certain water amounts discharging into the sea will be kept. Then the water resources development and utilization and balance of water supply and demand for each water resources zone is calculated and analyzed. The scheme of 2030 is different from the other schemes because the target year of planning in 2030 is virtual,which will be realized before or after the year of In this scheme, the ecological water demand of the rivers is deducted from river runoff and a balance of groundwater mining and recharge is ensured. Then maximum water resource supply capacity for supporting social and economic development is figured out in reverse. The scheme is based on the water engineering condition in 2020, and the virtual reservoir in the rivers is added artificially in order to increase storage water volume. The agricultural water demand remains at the same level in Analyses of the Results 1. The water use patterns of sectors will obviously be changed in the target years of planning compared with the present year. The agriculture water use in 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 accounts for 86%, 75%, 63% and 53% of total water use, respectively. It can be seen that the agricultural water use will be the major component of the total from the present year to With the economy and peoples living condition improvement, the proportion of agriculture water to total water use will be greatly decreased after The industrial and domestic water demand will be met not only in the present year but also in the target years of planning. But the agricultural water shortages always occur to a certain degree. The mean annual agriculture water shortage will be 6.6%, 6.3% and 8% in the year of 2005, 2010 and 2030 respectively. The agricultural water shortage in hilly areas is lager than that in the plain area because of less groundwater and limited surface water storage facilities in hilly areas. However, even a small quantity of groundwater overexploitation in terms of agricultural irrigation at the coastal plain area will cause seawater intrusion. Although mean annual groundwater extraction and recharge is equilibrated, mean monthly groundwater extraction and recharge is not balanced in some dry seasons. The simulation result during a long series from 1970 to 2000 of mean annual water balance between water supply and demand in different years in Laizhou can be seen in Table

165 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Table 3-3: Mean annual water balance between supply and demand in different years in Laizhou Planning yea Water demand (10 3 m 3 ) Water supply (10 3 m 3 ) Deficient (10 3 m 3 ) Deficient rate (%) Present year Since the building of a water resources engineering network, the structure of surface water and groundwater supply has remarkably changed. Surface water development and utilization ratio has increased and groundwater overdraft also has been alleviated. The surface water and groundwater development ratio of available water to water resources amount is increased from 49%, 94% in the present year to 57%, 88% in 2010 and 60%, 85% in In general, the situation of groundwater is in balance between mining and recharge, but groundwater overdraft is still presenting in some areas due to uneven groundwater distribution in space. Though the total water resources development ratio changed a little in the present year, the structure of water use changed much. The surface water use is increasing and groundwater mining and use is reducing. 4. According to survey and prediction, the mean annual runoff flowing into the sea and out of Laizhou city are separately million m 3, million m 3, million m 3 and million m 3 in the year of 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 respectively, accounting for 53.5%, 60.3%, 65.7% and 43.7% of total surface runoff amount respectively. The runoff out of the area refers to the Xiaogu river basin, being million m 3, million m 3, million m 3 and million m 3. The water resources are the richest of the basins in Laizhou. The runoff out of the area is larger and will be reasonably developed with the water resources engineering network building and operating in the target year of planning. 5. With the water resources engineering network operating, the water amount transferred cross-basins has been increased from the present year to 2030, which are 1.53 million m 3, million m 3, million m 3, million m 3 in 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 respectively, and accounting for 2.2%, 16%, 15.8% and 15.5% respectively. From these, it can be seen that it is very necessary to build the water resources engineering network for water resources allocation among basins in Laizhou 6. In 2030 or after 2020, there is still some potential water amount flow into the sea in rivers available. The storage capacity of the virtual reservoir will be increased until the discharge volume into the sea equals the 40% mean monthly surface runoff. The impounded water amount of virtual reservoir capacity by regulating computation is the proposed maximum water resources bearing capacity, which is million m3, requiring the mean annual agricultural water deficient rate of less than 10% in order to 165

166 ERSEC conference proceeding keep water resources supporting the economic development. 5 Conclusions and Discussion There is much runoff flowing into the sea or out of Laizhou based on the observed data and modeling. The maximum local water resources development capacity is only million m 3 in 2030 compared with the present engineering under the condition of keeping the 40% the surface runoff flowing into the sea and balancing of groundwater mining and feed. In other words, it is the maximum local water resources bearing capacity. Once the planned water resources network is put in practice, the water resources utilization efficiency will be raised to optimal water resources allocation. But the water environment is still very vulnerable in the coastal area in which the agricultural irrigation water demand is larger and the designed irrigation guarantee probability of 50% in the area is low. The mode of production is a small-farmer economy, in which households manage the farmland, with less than ha per capita. It is difficult to manage the agricultural irrigation water use, because the coastal plain is dotted with pumping wells and water resources fee has been not charged for the agriculture irrigation water until now. Although a balance of average year groundwater extraction and recharge is kept in the model, groundwater overdraft would occur during a dry year or continuous dry years. If the groundwater level is over drafted, the sea water intrusion would occur. Provided the sea water intrusion occurs, it would take 50 or 100 years to restore healthy groundwater environment, and may be impossible. Hence, the key for water resources development and utilization in the coastal plain is how to solve the contradiction between groundwater extraction for agriculture irrigation and the vulnerable groundwater environment. Acknowledgements The study was funded by the doctoral foundation of University of Jinan of China (Grant No. B0529) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No ). References 1. A.Brooke, D.Kendrick and A. Meeraus, GAMS: A User Guide, The Scientific Press, Gan Hong, Han Su-hua el. General Optimization and Simulation Model of Water Resources System Driven by Data, Proceedings of Optimal Plan and Regulation in Big Water Resources System, China Science and Technology Press, Bejing, 1995, P Wang Weiping, Yang Jinzhong el. Modern Water Resources Network Building and Optimal Water Resources Allocation, Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, , P Wu Jisong, Modern Water Resources Management Methodology, China Water Resources and Hydropower Press, Beijing, 2002, P

167 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Multifunctionallity of Agriculture Some Remarks about the Importance of Different Functions 农业的多功能性 对不同功能重要性的几点看法 Daniela Weber 1, Holger Bergmann 1 and Kenneth J. Thomson² 1 Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Germany 2 Department of Geography and Environment, University of Aberdeen, UK Abstract The multifunctionality of agriculture (MFA) has received persistent attention if fluctuating one over the last decade or two, in both analytical and political circles, e.g. WTO negotiations and EU policy discussion. Based on two empirical surveys of agricultural multifunctionality in Germany (2000/ 2001) and Scotland (2007), this paper: Reviews the various concepts (economic and non-economic) of agricultural multifunctionality, in particular those of agriculture, functions and jointness of production of commodities and non-commodities. Presents evidence from public attitude surveys about the importance of different functions of agriculture. Presents analyses of current and impending policy efforts to encourage positive aspects of agricultural multifunctionality, primarily via Pillar 2 of the CAP, before and after Rural Development Programmes in Germany and Scotland are assessed against the broader conceptual and observational framework. The paper concludes with a discussion of territorial approaches versus centrally planned approaches to support multiple functions of agriculture and its links to sustainable rural development policies. 摘要在过去二十年中, 尽管人们关注的焦点在变, 农业 多功能性 却一直出现在研究分析和政治 167

168 ERSEC conference proceeding 讨论中 ( 例如 : 世界贸易组织的谈判和欧盟会议 ) 本文以 2000 到 2001 年在德国以及 2007 年 在苏格兰进行的农业多功能性经验调查为基础 : 回顾了农业多功能性的的各种概念 ( 经济性和非经济性的 ), 特别关注 农业, 功 能 和 经济性和非经济性产品的关联 提供了农业多功能重要性调查的公众意见 分析了目前以及即将出台的促进农业多功能性积极发展的政策, 主要是 2006 年前后的欧 盟共同农业政策的第二支柱 德国和苏格兰的农村发展项目已经被视为延伸性的概念及可参照的标准 为了支持农业的多种功能及相关的可持续农业发展政策, 本文结尾对区域性措施和中央计划性措施进行了讨论 1 Introduction and Background Agriculture and rural life retain great emotive and political power all over Europe, as expressed by the containing significance of the Common Agricultural Policy. This attitude was summed up in a speech by Franz Fischler, the then European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development, at the Cork Conference 1996, when he said: [The European] rural society is a socio-economic model in its own right which must be preserved in the interests of European society as a whole. This has led to the widely used European Model of Agriculture (EMA) which has been described by the European Commission (1999) as [ ] based on multi-functional, sustainable and competitive farming throughout the Union, including rural areas facing special difficulties. This idea of different functions of the agricultural sector is also reflected in Eurobarometer results (EC, 2004, 2006) about the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). From these opinions of the general public, agricultural policy should have several major functions; each of the following was regarded with about the same importance: to ensure that agricultural products are healthy and safe to make European agriculture more competitive on world markets to help farmers to adapt their production to consumer demands to reduce development gaps between regions to encourage the diversification of agricultural products and activities to protect the specificity of European agricultural products to favour and improve life in the countryside to ensure that the well-being of farm animals is respected to promote respect for the environment Moreover, in general, citizens seem to support the actual policies of the EU; i.e., the CAP itself. While theoretical aspects of the MFA concept have been considerably developed by 168

169 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management economists (see below), others (e.g. geographers, sociologists) have criticised their approach. Politically, there is suspicion of the concept as a new term or method for farmer protectionism, but also enthusiasm for it as an essential aspect of the desired EMA. In this paper, we first analyse MFA by discussing some of these different concepts. In the second section, we present some results from two empirical surveys that show the importance of different functions of agriculture on the part of the general public. And in the third part we analyse some related current policy developments. The paper concludes with a short discussion of the main findings and recommendations concerning the analysed observations. 2 Concepts of Multifunctionality of Agriculture From a general point of view, MFA is the observation that farms as well as farm households have different functions. These functions can have negative effects (groundwater pollution, extinction of biodiversity, production of carbon dioxide, etc.) and positive ones (purification of groundwater, production of food and fibre or protection of biodiversity, sequestration of carbon dioxide, etc.). Shumway et al. (1984), Blandford and Boisvert (2002) suggest that the simplest view of multifunctionality is one in which two or more outputs are technically interdependent. While this originally involved only simple physical outputs, commodities (see below) produced for sale, such as milk and beef, the evolving discussion currently also includes non-marketed agricultural positive and negative externalities and services, most prominently cultural landscapes, biodiversity protection and species extinction. The most cited, and sometimes disputed, definition of MFA has been developed by OECD (2001, 7 bottom): "The key elements of multifunctionality are: i) the existence of multiple commodities and non-commodity outputs that are jointly produced by agriculture; and ii) the fact that some of the non-commodity outputs exhibit the characteristics of externalities or public goods, with the result that markets for these goods do not exist or function properly." However, as OECD clearly states in the preceding paragraph to this working definition, multifunctionality has been used with various meanings in the policy and scientific debate. According to FAO (1999), There are no internationally agreed definitions of the multifunctional character of agriculture. However, [ ] there exist several internationally agreed references to the term. These include the 1992 UNCED Agenda 21 (BMU n.d.) and the 1996 Rome Declaration on World Food Security and the World Food Summit Plan of Action (FAO n.d.). In preparation for the ongoing Doha round negotiations (March 2007) WTO (2000) summarized the following concerning MFA: Most countries accept that agriculture is not only about producing food and 169

170 ERSEC conference proceeding fibre but also has other functions, [ ]. However, there has been some suspicion (e.g., from the Cairns Group and the US) that the EU is trying to justify trade-distorting subsidies to agriculture (see Garzon 2005; also WTO 2000) by reference to non-trade concerns (NTC). MFA has also attracted attention in other disciplines. In the following section, some of the more prominent recent publications are reviewed to show the extent to which MFA has developed from a mere factual description to a more theoretical concept in neighbouring disciplines to the mainstream economic analysis and debate. 2.1 Non-economic concepts of multifunctionality of agriculture From a geographical perspective, Wilson and Rigg (2003) have described the concept of MFA in the context of the undergoing change from a productivist to a post-productivist society and economy. They find six indicators with which the recent development of CAP can currently be understood as marking this change. Productivism in agriculture is marked by the main preoccupation to ensure: the national self-sufficiency through production maximisation, a central hegemonic position of agriculture in society, a small self-centred agricultural policy community, a strong state with a top-down approach to policy making, and farming techniques which often rely on intensified systems with high machinery use. The new phase of post-productivism can be seen, according to Wilson and Rigg (2003), as the reaction of the productivism. Post-productivist farming systems are marked by large-scale extensification and adoption of on-farm diversification strategies a move from food production to the more general production and consumption of the countryside by residents and visitors the loss of the central position of agriculture in society, and a widening of the agricultural community to include formerly marginal and urban-based actors at the core of the policy-making process allowing for bottom-up approaches in the governance of agricultural policies, and farming systems and techniques that are more in tune with environmental protection through reduced intensity (organic farming) or even total abandonment This analysis therefore shows that MFA is a concept that follows the mainstream of policy thinking in adopting bottom-up approaches, integrating sustainability issues and trying to change production-aimed policies to more diversified targets. However, with the current price bubble on international commodity markets, there seems to be indicators of a revival of productivist policies as such phrases as food security and self-sufficiency became more prominent than food safety or high-quality 170

171 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management production. Dundon (2003) asserts that the concept of multiple functions of agriculture in the rural community as well as in specific U.S. policies is not as new as it sometimes seems. Over the last 200 years, the role of agricultural policies in the countryside and in the whole of society has undergone significant changes, from being formerly just a producer of food and to produce the solid citizens needed in an ideal democracy as hard-working and independently minded citizens (in contrast to the urban labouring class), to being the provider of different social and especially environmental functions. From Dundon's agricultural-ethical perspective, he has identified from historical sources at least the following functions of U.S. agriculture in changing times: provision of the ideal citizen in democracy (starting at least with Jefferson) provision of equality and social justice in farming by freeing slaves and paying socially efficient wages soil protection, soil sustainability and local food security soil conservation as a result of the famous dust bowl in the 1920s better rural living conditions, at least starting with the 1887 social laws but being undermined by large farmer interests in higher subsidies protection of the environment and provision of healthy food in the last 20 years underlined by the Conservation Reserve Program. From a political science point of view, Gelats (2004) stresses the importance of MFA as a nodal point of discourse analysis, which he found significantly linked to the 1992 Rio Earth Summit and the Agenda 21 as other nodal points. One of the reasons for the increasing importance of MFA was the review of agricultural policies promised in the Agenda 21 process. Gelats (2004) links MFA with the terms sustainable development, ecological domination, ecological agriculture, food safety and fair trade. Especially in developed countries, consumers associate agriculture, sustainable development and third-world development. MFA is therefore conceived as a growing societal demand regarding the agricultural sector not to produce food and fibre alone, but also other benefits which in particular include quality of life, healthy food, food safety, personal development and leisure. 2.2 Economic concepts of multifunctionality of agriculture The economic discussion of MFA concepts has been summarized by Schmid and Sinabell (2004) as follows: Some authors analyse the conditions under which multifunctional outputs are supplied by farms (e.g., Boisvert 2001, Lankoski and Ollikainen 2001). Other authors suggest that the positive outputs of agriculture should be promoted 171

172 ERSEC conference proceeding while negative ones should be discouraged (e.g., Blandford and Boisvert 2002; Paarlberg et al. 2002). There is a great deal of controversy about which instruments should be implemented in order to promote and support MFA, particularly in the context of non-trade concerns. Some authors suggest that providers of public goods services that are positively valued by society should be compensated according to the Provider Gets Principle (e.g., Hodge 2000). o Others suggest that under certain conditions production-tied support of agricultural commodities is justified (Vatn 2002; Prestegaard 2003). o In opposition to both these views, some researchers object to any modification of the WTO green box criteria on the grounds of multifunctionality (e.g., Anderson 2000; Harvey 2003) From a New Institutional Economics perspective, Hagedorn (2005) published a paper on "the role of integrating institutions for multifunctionality", with eight "interpretations" of the concept, and distinguishing technical and institutional jointness of agricultural production to other mostly non-marketed agricultural functions. Much of the debate is centred on definitions and normative questions. There are only a few positive analyses which address multifunctionality both directly and empirically (e.g., Lankoski and Ollikainen 2003). Specifically regarding the public good discussion, Freshwater (2006) has suggested that: Multifunctionality is largely an urban-fringe issue for agriculture. Most of the public good outputs of farming, whether positive or negative, require the presence of nonfarmers to be significant. In his view, the urban fringe is the place where the different aspects of MFA (e.g., production versus recreation) are most significant, and pressures on farming communities and their lifestyle, as well as on their production methods, are bigger than in more remote, difficult-to-reach areas. The resulting shift in the relative value of commodities and non-commodities can lead to policies that restrict farming activities through regulation, and it can lead to policies that start to pay farmers for the production of non-commodities (Freshwater 2006: 30). However, Freshwater interprets the urban fringe as within 60 km of a U.S. city centre. In times when flights are becoming cheaper and cheaper and societies are changing from working-time societies to leisure-time societies, the urban fringe of London or Brussels can include a country home in the South of France or a castle near Inverness, and therefore, in Europe at least, this concept of the urban fringe has a much broader geographical scale than commonly accepted. In any case, the location of the MFA issue depends on what perspective (or valuation) is used: while market-related aspects (such as property values and some recreational expenditure) may be more densely located near to cities, some 172

173 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management environmental issues (preservation of rare species and landscapes) are found in extensive remote areas. 2.3 Concepts of multifunctionality of agriculturea conclusion and prospects One main reason for this ongoing political discussion, apart from disputes between nations, can be seen in the use of different territorial scales for MFA analysis. We find four different geographical scales at which analysis (mostly in the economic disciplines) has taken place: The farming enterprise producing food and fibre: The analysis of the agricultural production process concentrates on jointly negative and positive externalities (or non-commodities) directly linked to the production process, such as nitrogenous water pollution, agro-biodiversity and specific smells from agricultural production. The farm household: This approach often involves the concept of pluriactivity (see Bryden 2003), in which the interrelations between the farm business and the income of the farmer s family are integrated into the analysis of the different sources of income and the relations between farm family labour and the surrounding society and economy. The regional agricultural sector: This approach assumes that MFA has a territorial contribution to make, especially at smaller regional scales. It focuses the impacts of the whole agricultural sector in specific regions and describes the economic, ecological and especially social relations of the farming community (people living and/or working on farms) with the total regional economy (e.g., see Peaux et al. 2003; Bryden and Hart 2001). The national agricultural sector: Prominent examples of such descriptions can be found in the background papers for the OECD conference on Multifunctionality: Applying the OECD Analytical Framework (OECD 2001b). All this shows that, even in economics, the concept of MFA has been broadened from the already wide range of public and private goods and services to outputs which may be considered softer if not less important, such as social cohesion, rural culture, and a sense of entrepreneurship amongst rural residents in accordance with the broad definition of the European Model of Agriculture. The discussion is even more complicated by the economic terms used in the MFA discussion, which usually differentiates between main categories of economic goods and services, e.g., between non-marketed versus marketed commodities (OECD 2001a: 11), between non-commodities versus commodities (OECD 2001a: 11), between tangibles versus non-tangibles (Bryden and Hart 2001), and between public versus private goods. 173

174 ERSEC conference proceeding MFA analysis has thus resulted in many definitions and concepts which have been used by different authors in different contexts (see above). Summarizing, e.g., the national analysis scale of MFA in comparison, it is sometimes stated in the literature, [ ] there is still considerable confusion among World Trade Organisation (WTO) member states about what is really meant by the term NTCs [non-trade concerns] or its synonym multifunctionality (Guyomard and Le Bris 2004). This short summary of some of the available references shows that there is a need for a clear definition of what is understood under MFA and specifically under the above duality of commodities and non-commodities. Using Ockham s razor, we suggest the following definitions in order to describe MFA: a) A marketed good is a good or service which is traded on a market between two individuals; therefore a function of agriculture is marketed. These individuals can be private or juridical individuals, including the State, non-governmental organisations and private-public partnerships. This commodity definition would therefore include any good and service that farmers provide in reaction of supplied money. b) A non-marketed good is a good or service which is not traded on the market between two individuals. Therefore this function of agriculture is not marketed. 3 Observations on the Importance of Different Functions of Agriculture 3.1 General public surveys Empirical studies of agricultural multifunctionality present evidence from general public surveys about the importance of different functions of agriculture. In order to analyse the perception of agricultural outcomes by the general public, the following territorial approaches focus on different aspects via surveys. Recruiting interviews of people who left poll stations Bergmann (2003) compared 2064 interview results of different cultural landscapes in three places in Germany (Einbeck 9/2001; Soest 5/2000; Itzehoe 1/2000). The Contingent Valuation Method2 was used to show if environmental attitudes and the experience of natural resources have any significant impact on the WTP for environmental and ecological goods. 2 The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to estimate economic values. It involves directly asking people how much they would be willing to pay for specific environmental services. It is called contingent valuation, because people are asked to state their willingness-to-pay, contingent on a specific hypothetical scenario and description of the environmental service. 174

175 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Alongside the main findings, the study gave information about the general perception of and attitude towards agriculture at the time of the BSE crisis (end of 2000/ beginning of 2001). Surprisingly, although the agricultural crisis mainly influenced the economic food-production function of agriculture, and although the main function of agriculture was still seen in food-supply (nearly 90%), environmental non-economic aspects had gained at last since the summit of Goeteborg (1992) in importance since the reformed CAP. In both surveys the results indicate that the production functions of agriculture are the most important in the public eye, followed directly by the function of protection and maintenance of the cultural landscape as well as the conservation and protection of nature. Otherwise, the results showed that positive attitudes towards agriculture and the increased appreciation of environmental and ecological values were overshadowed by an agricultural crisis, e.g. the BSE crisis, as well as the increasing perception that intensive mass animal farming, application of pesticides, etc. are harmful to the environment. In the same way, two-thirds of the respondents were the opinion that agriculture uses too much fertilizer and pesticides. 40% thought that the production of commodities is too high. In principle, it is assumed by the respondents that, in the opinion of the population, agricultural production is driven too intensively in Germany and therefore considered critically. Every second respondent was the opinion that agriculture endangers to an increasing degree the natural resources of land, water and air. Moreover, more than 60% of the respondents were the opinion that agriculture should support a varied landscape. Altogether, the comparison of attitudes towards the different functions of agriculture in Germany revealed a not easily changeable positive perception of agriculture in spite of diverse food scandals. The results showed a corporate acceptance of the change of agricultural functions from pure production orientated functions to more environmentally orientated ones (see Table 2). Another exit poll survey, reported by Bergmann and Thomson (2007), took place in Scotland in three regions: two remote rural areas in Caithness and Sutherland, the urban areas of Aberdeen and the peri-urban area of Aberdeenshire. Overall, nearly 80% of all persons approached coming out of the randomized poll station participated, and 1,421 questionnaires were completed. One target of the survey was to analyse the production relationships between the public and private goods and services involved, in particular the nature and degree of coproduction (jointness or competition) between these private and public goods and services under different farming and contextual conditions. There were also questions on the importance of functions of agriculture. As shown in Table 1, the results suggest 175

176 ERSEC conference proceeding that a similar importance is ascribed to different functions, yet there is a relationship of response with place of residence, e.g. keeping rural settlements alive is of greater importance in remote and rural areas while urban people prioritise protection of wildlife. Furthermore, the survey showed that wildlife and landscape functions are more important, followed by the importance of the food-production function, and that the renewable hype is ignored by the general public. Table 6: Importance of different functions of agriculture in Scotland (Bergmann 2007) Rank (1 = highest, 9 = lowest importance) Aberdeen Aberdeenshire Caithness (West-) Sutherland Keeping rural settlements alive Protection of wildlife Protection and conservation of Landscapes Local or national food supply Production of food and fibre Maintaining cultural traditions Supply of recreation areas Production of renewable energies based on biomass (e.g. grass, straw) Production of raw materials for industry If one compares the survey results for Germany and Scotland with each other (Table 2), society in both countries appear to support the provision of multiple functions. The highest importance, especially in Scotland, lies in the protection of landscapes and nature, and in its social functions. But how is the social and protective function to be supported if one keeps the socio-economic aspects and the deeply connected willingness-to-pay of the public in mind? Table 7: Comparison of the importance of different functions of agriculture in Scotland and Germany (Bergmann 2007) Function Scotland 2007 Germany 2000/1 Production of food and fibre Production of raw materials for industry Local or national food supply Production Protection and conservation of landscapes Maintaining cultural traditions Protection Keeping rural settlements alive Supply of recreation areas Social Likert Scale: 5 - very important;...; 1 - very unimportant N = 1421 N =

177 3.2 Encouragement of multifunctionality of agriculture Sustainable Land Use and Water Management In order to promote MFA, a number of approaches can be adopted, e.g. reliance on the market mechanism, policy action by the state, or action by voluntary groups as an intermediate approach between pure states action and pure market exchange. Some of the functions of agriculture are not marketed. This raises two questions: 1) Are the functions which are not marketed produced in a quantity that is sufficient for society and 2) If the supply is not sufficient, who should spend and how much for the provision of different functions of agriculture? The answers to both questions can be found in political decisions taken by the European Council and European Parliament as well as the member states and regions. It has been decided that all functions of agriculture (food and fibre production as well as the environmental protection and functions related to rural development) should be supported by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Implicitly, this means that certain functions have not been or are not provided by markets in a quantity that satisfies citizens3. CAP objectives were specified long ago in 1957 in the Treaty of Rome. Since then, these objectives have not been changed but have been supplemented by others, most importantly environmental ones. Until the Bruntland report (published in 1987) agriculture has not been compensated for supplying public services such as the protection of landscapes and the preservation of active rural communities but since the CAP reforms are now considered. Subsidies are now paid independently from the volume of production, and the new "single farm payments" are linked to the respect of environmental, food safety and animal welfare standards. Under progressive modulation, it is planned that more money will be available for environmental, quality or animal welfare programmes by reducing direct payments to bigger farms. Spending on rural development measures in the member states has been defined by Council Regulation (EC) 1698/2005 along four Axes, with compulsory minimum percentages related to each Axis (see Table 3). With Commission Decision 636 of 12 September 2006 (notified as COM (2006) 4024), a budget proposal for the new planning period 2007 to 2013 has been made by the European Commission. 3 Most economists are convinced that the production of food and fibre no longer constitutes a market failure which allows for state intervention in agricultural markets. 177

178 ERSEC conference proceeding Table 3: Compulsory expenditure shares in EU Rural Development Plans (RL (EC) Title Compulsory minimum share Axis 1 Improving the competitiveness of the agricultural and forestry sectors 10% Axis 2 Improving the environment and countryside 25% Axis 3 Improving the quality of life in rural areas and encouraging diversification 10% Axis 4 Building local capacity for employment and diversification (Leader- Approach) 5%* * included within previous shares Axis 1 spending may be seen as supporting (as do the Pillar 1 measures) the production functions of agriculture (e.g. food and fibre production, processing food and fibre; see also Table 2). Spending on Axis 2 can mainly be understood as the protection function of agriculture as regards biodiversity, environmental assets (groundwater, etc.; see also Table 2) and cultural landscapes. Spending on Axis 3 is more linked to rural development questions (e.g. local enterprise, social cohesion, etc.; see also Table 2) and measures targeted on the provision of food safety. The Leaderapproach in Axis 4 is mostly targeted on regional society, and the services and goods which agriculture can deliver to them as well as building employment potential, all of which go beyond the production of food and fibre. Furthermore, Axis 4 introduces possibilities for locally based bottom-up approaches to rural development. Apart from this, the relevant EU regulation allows that 55% (see Table 3) of the overall budget being spent on rural development in a member state or region be done according to the regional priorities. In terms of the budgets, the importance of different functions of agriculture can be measured by the expenditures which could be made under the four axes. This is a proxy for the social valuation and importance of different aspects of MFA. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has moved from an inflexible, productionoriented subsidy policy to a more market-oriented system. The financial support, which declined from more than two-thirds of the total EU budget to less than a half, are now more dependent on environmental concerns as well as food-safety. According to the Eurobarometer (2006), a clear majority of European citizens remain positive about the CAP reform that grants more funds for the protection and development of the overall rural economy and gives direct support to farmers, which is independent of production. 4 Summary and Discussion The conceptual and observational framework presented above shows that multifunctionality of agriculture is recognized by the broad population, especially in the urban fringe. In consideration of the fact that in industrial countries the urbanisation rate 178

179 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management (proportion of urban to total population) persists in spite of regional disparities of 74% (in contrast to the worldwide urbanisation rate of nearly 50%), it is obvious that social and agricultural processes and reforms came along with ongoing urbanisation (see Bähr 2007). Referring to Wilson and Rigg (2003), it can be concluded that the phase of postproductivism was already represented by the loss of the central position of agriculture in society and the increased maintenance of the demands of the urban population. A more general position of agriculture includes alongside the pure production-centred function more diversified targets, e.g. the growing demand on environmental protection and societal requirements seen in Tables 1 and 2. The study results reveal that the link between agricultural production, farm households and their contribution to the protection of local traditions is vanishing. In other words, social functions of agriculture in the above mentioned regions that have been very important contributions to society, where, due to the absence of competing industries and alternative work-based lifestyles, it might be expected that agriculture is still closely linked to the rural community as a whole, are hard to find, but desired as amenities of the rural areas (see Table 2). The presented results show that, the Leader-approach (Axis 4) of the Rural Development program s are useful. Such a bottom-up approach to support the multiple functions of agriculture and to build local capacity for employment and diversification would support the territorial approaches that have become popular and successful in recent years (Bryden and Hart 2004; OECD 2006). Including the wishes of the general public in bottom-up approaches, sustainable rural development policies can be implemented in a more effective way including economic, ecological and especially social functions of agriculture. Such approaches have the advantage of refocusing much more support on growth, jobs and rural viability. Whereas the linkages to intensive farming will become weaker, the social value of land as a basis for public expenditure is decreasing through a Leader-based funding of tourism-attractions and traditional businesses, that gain in importance through increasing in-migrants and tourists that, according to the general public observations, appreciate the multiple functions of agriculture and the quality of life in local areas. Thus, territorial policies will affect housing, employment and rural cohesion as well as diminishing the disparities between rural and urban areas. Contrary to the provision of multiple functions in niches, it is difficult to survey nonmarketed values in the general society. Several recent CAP developments offer farmers, but do not entitle them to, a range of payments for the supply of various services, or the avoidance of potentially damaging operations. Hence, classifying a product per se as marketed or otherwise pre-judges or confuses matters. The term function in multifunctionality is therefore taken to mean the production of a specific output (commodity or non-commodity) (Thomson 2006). Centrally planned approaches, also 179

180 ERSEC conference proceeding fixed in the Rural Development Programmes, may be used as a broader concept for all farmers to provide environmental commodities alongside the production function. In conjunction with the positive outputs, Jadot (2000) mentioned some negative aspects. Although the multiple functions are not rewarded by the market, the centrally planned regulations for MFA are not a substitute for sustainable development. The subsidies constitute an unfair competition on the world market, and therefore do not account for the social and economic aspects. From the perspective of protection functions, agriculture needs these operational concepts to supply the production of public goods and to support the preservation of the countryside. Otherwise, the change to the post-productive era could not be carried out. Centrally planned policy instruments of the Rural Development Programmes are in relation to the MFA just as important as the bottom-up approaches. The environmental subsidies and restrictions act as protection against mono-functionally simply productionoriented agricultural practices and are therefore important for a comprehensive farreaching implementation of the MFA-concepts. 5 Conclusions and Outlook Agriculture has a very high potential concerning the outputs of its multifunctional activities, because there is a strong joint relation between farming and rural landscapes. Accordance to the old dependent, centrally-planned model of agricultural policy, modern farming practices put less emphasis on non-commodity-outputs than on producing food and fibre. Rural areas as consumptive landscapes were produced for free and hence without any economic importance for the farmers. Primarily through the reformed CAP, the different functions of agriculture have gained in importance in Europe. The Multifunctionality of Agriculture (MFA) is a much discussed concept within various different political debates as well as in diverse scientific disciplines. Currently and in future, the ongoing discussion in both fields is dominated by the ongoing WTO negotiations, but is confused by the widespread use of different terms and understandings. It would assist future discussions if participants would clarify what they mean. The new agricultural paradigm focusing on protection and other functions has therefore the potential to replace the competitive model in strengthening ecological and social aspects. The observations aimed to consolidate the usefulness of focussing territorial affairs and demonstrate from the perspective of the general public that there is a broad acceptance of the Rural Development Programmes. Comparing the results of the surveys, it is 180

181 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management shown that even in a post-productivist environment the main agricultural function should be production followed by environmental and social functions. The discussion reveals a potential for MFA approaches that support sustainable rural developments. Especially concerning more territorial focused policies it is shown that namely bottom-up approaches can lead to a better identification of society with the different outputs of various functions. Regarding a global perspective for MFA it is important to know, that on the one hand Europe as an industrial country can afford to support the provision of non-productive roles of agriculture, e.g. the subsidies for the promotion of public and environmental goods with simultaneous restrictions of intensively operated production maximization. Least developed countries on the other hand, with greater economic importance of agriculture are attached to such agricultural functions as social stability, poverty alleviation, access to production and environmental concerns (FAO 2002). Thirdly in between, emerging nations or newly industrialising countries, like China, social processes and agricultural upheavals are taking place. Due to this development China might see an increasing demand for a better quality of life, e.g. a better environment and other public goods provided as joint products of agriculture. Also having regard to the fact that alongside the dependence on the level of income of its consumers is important for an increased demand for environmental qualities, it is remarkable that environmental degradation, the costs of abating pollution and the political will play an important role for the encouragement of different functions (FAO 2002). Inferential MFA might be a very attractive concept that goes along with different outputs and furthermore a sustainable development. References 1. Abler, D. (2001): A synthesis of country reports of jointness between commodity and noncommodity outputs in OECD agriculture. Workshop on Multifunctionality, July Paris. 2. Anderson, K. (2000): Agriculture Multifunctionality and the WTO. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 44 (3): Bähr, J. (2008): Entwicklung von Urbanisierung. In: Bähr (2008) Online-Handbuch Demographie. mik/auswirkungen/urbanisierung/entwicklung-von-urbanisierung.html. 4. Bergmann, H. (2003): Der Einfluss von Informationen in Kontingenten Bewertungsstudien. Nutzen-Kosten-Überlegungen anhand der Agrarumweltprogramme. Hohengandern: excelsior (Göttinger Agrarwissenschaftliche Beiträge, 11). 5. Bergmann, H. and Thomson, K. J. (2006): Study Area Report Scotland: Caithness and Sutherland. Working paper, TOP-MARD Project. University of Aberdeen. 6. Bergmann, H. and Thomson, K. J. (2007): Agricultural Multifunctionality: Concepts, 181

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184 ERSEC conference proceeding 40. Shumway, C., Pope, R. and Nash, E. (1984): Allocable Fixed Inputs and Jointness in Agricultural Production: Implications for Economic Modelling. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66: Thomson, K. J. (2006): Decoupling and Cross-Compliance as Concepts and Instruments in Agricultural Multifunctionality, 93rd EAAE Seminar Impacts of Decoupling and Cross- Compliance on Agriculture in the New EU Member States September Prague. 42. Vatn, A. (2002): Multifunctional agriculture: some consequences for international trade regimes. European Review of Agricultural Economics 29 (3): Wilson, G. A. and J. Rigg (2003): Post-productivist agricultural regimes and the South: discordant concepts? Progress in Human Geography 27 (6): World Trade Organization (WTO) (2000): Briefing document focuses on the agricultural issues raised in the lead-up to the Seattle Ministerial Conference. thewto_e/minist_e/min99_e/english/about_e/07ag_e.htm. 184

185 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Promoting Sustainable Land Use in the Greater Mekong Subregion - the Living Landscapes China (LILAC) Project in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan 促进大湄公河次区域可持续土地利用 : 云南西双版纳 生命的景观 中国 项目 G. Langenberger 1, J. Chen 2 and J. Sauerborn 3 1,3 Agroecology in the Tropics and Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Germany 2 Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG), Chinese Academy of Sciences Abstract Mountainous Southwest China and the Greater Mekong Subregion represent highly diverse cultural landscapes. A steadily growing population and the corresponding intensification of land-use practices together with an increasing dependency on world markets ( globalization ) have led to degradation and resource depletion. At the same time Southwest China has been identified as one of the world s biodiversity hotspots (Myers et al. 2000). Located in mountainous southwest China and bordering Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam, the Dai Autonomous Prefecture of Xishuangbanna is home to 14 ethnic minorities who, by practicing their different cultures, have created heterogeneous land-use systems and maintained a high agro-biodiversity. Now it is influenced by globalization, attached to a highway system that links all major countries and cities in South Asia and amongst others is a major producer of the economic and strategic asset rubber. The shift from subsistence agriculture towards a cash crop economy typically brings about a reduction of land-use systems. In Xishuangbanna it is mainly the rubber tree that became overwhelmingly dominant in the lowlands. This development results in far reaching socioeconomic as well as environmental consequences. For those who have to make decisions affecting land use practices, the speed and complexity of development make it all but impossible to oversee all facets of potential consequences, and while changes might be obviously beneficial to one sector of human life they might also have serious negative impacts on others. 185

186 ERSEC conference proceeding Therefore, it is the goal of the Living Landscapes China (LILAC) project to contribute to the visualization of such possible consequences by the development of a GIS based decision support tool that allows the modeling of land-use scenarios. To this end the Sino-German research consortium consisting of six German universities and an equivalent number of Chinese institutions studies the social, economical and ecological framework conditions, ongoing changes and the respective driving factors of land-use change in the Nabanhe National Nature Reserve, a tributary to the Mekong River, located near the prefecture capital Jinghong. 摘要中国西南山区和大湄公河次区域拥有多变的文化景观 不断增长的人口和相应的土地使用集约度的增加以及对世界市场 ( 全球化 ) 的依赖导致了资源的退化和耗竭 与此同时, 中国西南被看作是世界 生物多样性的热点区域 之一 (Myers et al. 2000) 西双版纳傣族自治州位于中国西南山区, 与缅甸 老挝和越南接壤 自治州内有 14 个少数民族, 他们有不同的文化和土地使用方式, 保持着高度的农业生物多样性 该区域连通南亚的主要国家和城市, 在全球化的大环境中是一个经济和战略橡胶的主要生产区 从自给型农业向经济作物种植的转变通常带来土地使用的缩减 在西双版纳的低地, 橡胶树占有绝对的主导地位 这种发展带来了社会经济上和环境上深远的影响 发展的速度和复杂性使得人们在对土地使用作决策的时候几乎不可能看到各方面全部的潜在后果, 变化可能对人类生活的一个部门有着明显的益处, 但却对其他部门有严重的负面影响 生命的景观 中国 项目的目标就是通过开发一个基于地理信息系统的决策支持工具来使这些可能的结果可视化, 该决策支持工具能够对土地使用情景进行建模 为实现这个目标, 中德合作研究中的六所德国大学和六个中国研究机构对纳板河流域国家级自然保护区进行社会, 经济学和生态学结构条件 正经历的变化和土地使用改变的驱动因素的研究, 纳板河是湄公河支流, 保护区位于自治州首府景洪附近 1 Introduction Mountainous Southwest China and the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS)4 with its 300 million people represent highly diverse cultural landscapes, having experienced tremendous changes in recent years. A steadily growing population and the corresponding intensification of land-use practices together with an increasing dependency on world markets ( globalization ) have led to degradation and resource depletion. In this respect the Dai Autonomous Prefecture of Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, 4 The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) is an informal cooperation of Thailand, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Cambodia, Viet Nam, and the P.R. China (Yunnan, Guangxi Provinces) to promote the development of the region (ADB 2005a). 186

187 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management PR China, is representative of large areas in South Asia. Being far off global developments and characterized by a subsistence economy in the past (Saint-Pierre 1991), the region turned out to become one of the most dynamic rural areas in the world. Presently, it provides the location for a billion dollar highway construction program by the Asian Development Bank (2005a). The new highway system links the countries of the GMS and opens to them the gate to world markets. Cash crops, such as rubber, tea or the oil plant Jatropha, which partly already play a significant role in the local economy, might become even more attractive in the future. As a result, socio-economic and cultural traditions are challenged, leading to a rapid change and disappearance, respectively, of traditional land-use systems, thus speeding up the so-called land-use cover change (LUCC). The consequences are complex and manifold and do not only affect the socio-economic situation of people but also the local environment, that has been identified as one of the world s biodiversity hotspots (Myers et al. 2000). In such a dynamic development process, stakeholders have to make permanent decisions affecting land-use. Due to speed and complexity, the actual consequences of such decisions for the local socio-economy, the cultural landscape as well as the natural environment are often hard to predict due to the lack of decision-support tools which could facilitate the prediction of possible outcomes or allow modeling of different alternative scenarios. But for planning sustainable regional development it is fundamental to consider the possible impacts of decisions on socio-economy, culture, and nature ( scenario development ). A systematic elaboration of such scenarios requires an interdisciplinary and integrative tool that is able to correlate the different aspects. In the framework of this project, we therefore want to develop such a tool. 2 Objectives of LILAC During the last two decades, research projects focused on the interactions between man and nature and on solutions to protect biodiversity against man s impact. Biodiversity protection has been perceived as competing with land-use for food production and income generation. But the separation of production areas and protection areas let alone its applicability under an increasing population pressure and with restricted funds often does not provide satisfactory results. Even if small patches of diverse landscapes and habitats are protected, this concept is not suited to conserve the biological diversity of whole landscapes. As an alternative solution, the paradigm of a controlled land-use became popular ( protection by utilization ). The Man & the Biosphere concept of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) follows this approach. Nevertheless, for highly diverse and sensitive areas, such as the hotspot regions, no practical concepts or tools that would allow a rational evaluation of activities, their impact on the environment and biodiversity and hence the identification of the most appropriate solution, are available. 187

188 ERSEC conference proceeding The overall objective of LILAC is therefore to develop a computer-based interdisciplinary decision-support tool that is able to integrate ecological, socio-cultural and economic models and that is implemented on a GIS platform, to facilitate the visualization of possible consequences of decisions and thus supports land-use planning towards sustainability (Fig. 1). This objective closely corresponds with the suggestion made by Cao et al. (2003) for the management of biological diversity in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS). Figure 1: General conceptual approach Expected results are: Contribution to the competitiveness of sustainable agriculture and forestry Contribution to better living conditions in rural areas and diversification of rural economy Contribution to the protection of biodiversity The expected economic applicability of LILAC is seen in: land-use planning and certification remote sensing validating biodiversity 3 Project Structure and Participants The LILAC-project is the result of an intergovernmental agreement between the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). The overall administrative structure is shown in figure

189 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 2: Administrative structure of LILAC LILAC consists of a research consortium composed of seven Chinese institutions (five universities and two NGOs) as well as seven German institutions (six universities and one NGO) (Fig. 3a & b). The coordinating organization on the German side is the Centre for Agriculture in the Tropics and Subtropics of the University of Hohenheim, represented by Prof. Dr. Sauerborn. The coordinating institution on the Chinese side is the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden (XTBG), represented by Prof. Dr. Chen Jin. As non-scientific government organization the Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (NNNR), our research target, under the Yunnan Environmental Protection Bureau, is directly involved. Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, CAS, Menglun (coordinating organization) China Agriculture University (CAU), Beijing Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU), Nanjing Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences (YASS), Kunming Yunnan Agriculture University (YAU), Kunming Center for Biodiversity and Indigenous Knowledge (CBIK), Kunming (NGO) TianZi Biodiversity Research & Development Center, Jinghong (NGO) Figure 3a: Chinese institutions participating in the LILAC project 189

190 ERSEC conference proceeding University of Hohenheim (leading organization) Gottfried Wilhelm Leibnitz University Hannover Humboldt-University Berlin Justus-Liebig-University Giessen University of Kassel/Witzenhausen University of Passau DITSL GmbH German Institute for Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture (NGO) Figure 3b: German institutions participating in the LILAC project The project participants are form three clusters on ecology, sociology and economy. Furthermore, a specific project on Land-use Cover Change (LUCC) will develop the decision support tool and integrate the results (sub-models) of the three clusters (Fig. 1). The general working approach and the interrelatedness of activities in a humandominated environment, respectively, can be seen in figure 4. Figure 4: Interrelatedness within an anthropogenic landscape 190

191 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management During the kick-off workshop of the LILAC project the participants discussed the specific activities to achieve the set goals and agreed on the following working scheme (Figure5). Figure 5: Activity clusters, topics, and scientists involved 4 The Research Area The Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (NNNR) in the Dai Autonomous Prefecture of Xishuangbanna, Yunnan Province, Southwest China, has been selected as the research area (Fig. 6). It is located northwest of the prefecture capital Jinghong and extends between N latitude and E longitude. The nature reserve forms a watershed of 266 km 2 draining directly into the Mekong (Lancang) river. The reserve encompasses the whole range of altitudes of Xishuangbanna, from 475 m a.s.l. to 2429 m a.s.l., with an estimated 90% of the area situated between 600 and 1500 m a.s.l. Climatically, Xishuangbanna is characterized by a monsoon climate. The research area receives about 1600 mm of precipitation, but with a high local variability. Due to the monsoon impact the majority of precipitation, about 1400 mm, can be observed from May to October, while the dry season from November to April receives only about 230 mm. Xishuangbanna is known for its cultural diversity, which is well reflected in the research area. A total of 32 villages with 1219 households and 5538 persons are documented for the NNNR. They represent six out of the 14 ethnic groups home to Xishuangbanna: Han, Dai, Hani, Lahu, Bulang and Yi (Wu & Yang 2003, unpublished report5). 5 Wu Zhaolu & Yang Yun (eds.) Nabanhe National Nature Reserve. Nabanhe National Nature Reserve Management Office. Unpublished report. 191

192 ERSEC conference proceeding The area belongs to the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot (Myers et al. 2000). The fragile and endangered Lancang/Mekong catchment, extending over 23.5% of the territory of Yunnan and harbouring 53% and 75% of nationally and/or provincially protected plant and animal species, respectively, is a nature conservation priority area of the Yunnan Provincial Government. Xishuangbanna covers only 0.2% of the Chinese territory, but supports almost 18% of its higher plant species (LIU et al. 2002). Yunnan Province Beijing Nabanhe watershed Myanmar Kunming Vietnam Mekong Laos Na Ban Xishuangbanna Prefecture Jinghong Menghai Mengla Jinghong Figure 6: Location of the LILAC s research focus (not to scale) The NNNR is managed according to the Man & Biosphere concept that tries to reconcile man and his environment. It comprises a fully protected core zone, a buffer zone with restricted land use, and a development zone where restrictions are very limited. Additionally, parts of the NNNR belong to the Biodiversity Corridor Initiative of the Asian Development Bank (2005b). 5 Current Status and Preliminary Findings LILAC has been officially approved by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany) in June 2007 and by the Ministry of Science and Technology (PR China) in The project s kick-off workshop took place in November 2007 in Jinghong, PR China. During the dry season (December 2007-April 2008) initial data could be collected. A baseline survey covering selected core villages as well as first environmental inventories on entomology and vegetation have been conducted. Based on land-use classification in the field a first land-cover map is being processed. As a scientific output of LILAC four peer-reviewed contributions could be published, as well as one master and one diploma thesis could be finished so far. Being that preliminary findings still require in-depth research the following two issues 192

193 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management will be mentioned6: Village people appreciate the improvements in living conditions, like political stability, better infrastructure (roads), health care, or no more hunger. Therefore, environmental disturbance is not seen by them as critical as by environmentalists. On the other hand villagers are also aware of consequences of the current development. It has been reported that water supply decreased due to deforestation, currently allowing only one paddy rice harvest during the rainy season, while in the past, irrigation and thus a second harvest was possible. Rubber currently plays a major role in the local (lowland) economy and provides very high incomes to plantation owners (Fig. 7). According to rubber farmers they can earn between 4000 to 7000 per hectare and year by tapping. These figures have been confirmed by other sources. This income perspective caused a rubber planting boom somewhat reminiscent of a gold rush. Villagers give up their traditional land-use schemes, and thus also life styles, even transforming home gardens into rubber plantations, and become completely dependent on rubber. The transformation of former holy forests into rubber plantations has also been reported, documenting a major erosion of traditions. From an ecological perspective the current development results in a tremendous loss of the few remaining forest habitats with their reportedly very high diversity (Li et al. 2007, Liu et al. 2006). Figure 7: Local price development of natural rubber since the year 2000 (based on data from Kunming Yunken Trade Ltd. Accessed: 28 March Mainly based on information gathered during the baseline survey in spring 2008, where all work groups have been involved. 193

194 ERSEC conference proceeding 6 Discussion and Perspectives China s current economic boom and development is reflected in our research area by the speed of land-use cover change. This does not only refer to the lowland where rubber can be identified as the major driving force. It also refers to the uplands above ca m a.s.l. where new tea plantations - compared to the traditional system usually monocultures - change the landscape. Furthermore, another promising cash crop, the bio-fuel plant Jatropha, is just entering the competition for land. While this development is very promising from the perspective of the short term economy, the sustainability of this development must be questioned. Due to the plantation scheme of the mentioned cash crops, that is terracing, soil erosion is omnipresent. Water shortage during the dry season has already been reported. Additionally, the amount of agro-chemicals applied in the plantations is very high, reportedly leading to problems with potable water. Besides the obvious impact of this development on the environment and local biodiversity, there are also somewhat hidden consequences. The high agro-biodiversity of locally adapted crop varieties prevalent in traditional land-use systems disappears. The disturbance of forest ecosystems as a major source of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), which plays an important social and economic role in China, will lead to a shortage of required raw materials, probably especially affecting those at the lower end of income. While some of the consequences of the current development are obvious, many are not. We therefore hope that LILAC can help to uncover such hidden complex interactions, supporting a balanced evaluation of land-use cover change, and thus contribute to a really sustainable land-use, reconciling the requirements and needs of man and nature. References 1. Asian Development Bank 2005a. Regional Cooperation Strategy and Program Update , The Greater Mekong Subregion - Beyond Borders. Accessed: Asian Development Bankg 2005b. Greater Mekong Subregion Biodiversity Conservation Corridors Initiative, Strategic framework and technical assessment. Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippinen. Accessed: Cao M., Woods K. Hu H. & Li L Biodiversity Management and Sustainable Development: Lancang-Mekong River in the New Millennium. China Forestry Publishing House. 4. Li, H.; Aide, T.M.; Ma, Y.; Liu, W. & Cao, M Demand for rubber is causing the loss of high diversity rain forest in SW China. Biodiversity and Conservation 16: Liu, H.; Xu, Z.F.; Xu, J.K. & Wang, J.X Practice of conserving plant diversity through traditional beliefs: a case study in Xishuangbanna, southwest China. Biodiversity and 194

195 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Conservation 11: Liu, W.; Hu, H.; Ma, Y. & Li, H Environmental and Socio-economic Impacts of Increasing Rubber Plantations in Menglun Township, Southwest China. Mountain Research and Development 26 (3): Myers, N.; Mittermeier, R.A.; Mittermeier, C.G.; da Fonseca, G.A.B. & Kent, J Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403: Saint-Pierre C Evolution of agroforestry in the Xishuangbanna region of tropical China. Agroforestry Systems 13:

196 ERSEC conference proceeding Inter- and Trans-disciplinary Approaches for a Sustainable Management of Water Resources: Example GLOWA-IMPETUS 水资源可持续管理的跨学科方法 : 以 GLOWA-IMPETUS 项目为例 Heiner E.Goldbach 1, A. Fink 2, B. Reichert 3, M. Christoph 2, B. Diekkrüger 3, T. Heckelei 3, M. Rössler 2, P. Speth 2 and co-workers 1 University of Bonn 2 University of Cologne 3 University of Bonn Abstract Among the regions most affected by overall global changes, West and Northwest Africa are hot spots, as they face high population growth, rapid land-use change (deforestation), scarcity of arable land, over-grazing, erosion, increasing salinity, and severe economic constraints. Given a higher natural climate variability than anywhere on earth and a substantial drying trend especially for Northwest Africa, it is imperative to base future decisions on sound knowledge, optimizing use and protection of resources, especially land and water resources. In the context of the projects funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research on global water cycles (GLOWA), a collaborative project of the Universities of Cologne and Bonn was initiated in 2000, dealing with sustainable water (and land) management in Benin and Morocco, named IMPETUS (An Integrated Approach to the Efficient Management of Scarce Water Resources in West Africa). The project involves two contrasting watersheds: the Drâa valley in Morocco south of the High Atlas in a largely arid environment, and the upper Ouémé in the north of Benin, a tropical ecosystem with a largely unimodal rainfall distribution. After a detailed data collection in a mostly data scarce environment in the first project phase, the application of suitable models to deal with complex interactions, plausible scenarios were developed which allowed the development of information and spatial decision support systems (IS and SDSS) on different levels, aimed at aiding decision makers to make decisions based on sound criteria. The IS and SDSS are of a truly interdisciplinary nature, linking together social, economic and natural science models. Models are loosely coupled by 196

197 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management data exchange, and a framework was developed to run the SDSS. Furthermore, an atlas was developed for both project regions, which is available in printed version. In addition, an interactive atlas is available which collected all important available data from the project as well as from the respective national authorities and which enables users to gather information tailored to the individual needs. 摘要在受全球变化影响的众多地区中, 非洲西部 西北部已成为 热点 地区 这一地区正面临人口密度增长 ; 快速变化的土地利用 ( 滥砍滥伐 ), 可耕地不足, 过度放牧 水土流失, 盐碱化程度加剧和严重的经济制约等问题 非洲西北部的气候比世界上其它任何地区都要多变, 而且干旱已成为明显的趋势, 因此将未来的决策建立在可靠的知识, 优化资源, 特别是土地和水资源, 利用和保护基础上就显得势在必行 在德国教育研究部资助的全球水循环项目 (GLOWA) 的框架下, 由科隆大学和波恩大学共同协作的一个项目于 2000 年启动, 主要在贝宁和摩洛哥开展可持续的水 ( 和土地 ) 资源管理, 也就是 IMPETUS 项目 ( 有效管理西非地区不充足水资源的综合措施项目 ) 这个项目研究了两个完全不同的流域: 摩洛哥的 Drâa 流域, 位于大范围干旱环境的阿特拉斯山南部 ; 以及贝宁北部的韦梅河上游, 处于热带生态系统和单峰降雨分布区 项目的第一阶段在主要的数据缺乏地区收集了详细的数据, 开发了处理复杂交互作用和仿真情景的适当模式的应用程序, 这种程序可以在不同的层次开发信息和空间决策支持系统 (IS 和 SDSS), 旨在帮助决策者在合理标准的基础上作出决定 信息和空间决策支持系统具有各学科间的特性, 它将社会, 经济和自然科学的模式联系起来 这些模式通过数据交换松散的的连结, 由一个开发出的框架来运行空间决策支持系统 而且, 两个项目地区的地图集已经印刷出版 另外, 项目还制作了交互式的地图, 它包含了跟项目有关的所有有效信息和来自各个国家管理部门的信息, 这可以让使用者根据各自的需求来截取获得的信息 1 Problem Setting The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warmer climate for Africa, a drying in subtropical West Africa, and an uncertain rainfall trend in tropical West Africa. From a state-of-the-art regional model operated in IMPETUS taking into account land-use changes, it turns out that in the future a general decrease in rainfall together with a prominent surface heating can be expected for sub-saharan Africa and north of the Sahara until It is very likely that anthropogenic climate change in combination with soil degradation and migration will impact the hydro-climate with a weakening of the hydrological cycle in tropical and subtropical West Africa and with the implication that decreasing fresh water availability is combined with an increasing water demand. With the ongoing GLOWA initiative, the German government has set up in the year 2000 a long-term research strategy to mitigate the anticipated global change effects in the water sector. 197

198 ERSEC conference proceeding West and Northwest Africa are hot spots of global change with high population growth, rapid land-use change (deforestation) due to the scarcity of arable land with over-grazing, erosion, and increasing salinity; higher natural climate variability than anywhere on Earth, a substantial drying trend especially for Northwest Africa. Consequences of these changes include reduction of freshwater availability per capita, vulnerable food and livelihood security, changes in the spread and epidemiology of diseases like malaria, meningitis, and diarrhoea, and a growing potential of conflicts. 2 Objectives of IMPETUS The project IMPETUS aims at understanding and quantifying all aspects of the hydrological cycle of two watersheds in West (Ouémé in Benin) and Northwest Africa (Drâa in Morocco) in a multidisciplinary approach, involving natural, socio-economic, and health sciences. Thorough process evaluation and identification of pertinent driving forces of regional change, tailored tools for sustainable decision making were and are developed. 3 The IMPETUS Approach A comprehensive diagnosis of the water cycle and its impacts in the watersheds of the Drâa and Ouémé rivers was carried out during the first project phase. In the second phase, qualitative and quantitative models were developed or existing models modified. Projections of future developments were derived from scenario analysis, process understanding, and from expert knowledge. In the final phase Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS), Information Systems (IS), and Monitoring Tools (MT) have been developed and applied to a set of complex problems. The techniques used in IMPETUS range from information retrieval to advanced simulation with dynamically-coupled models for estimating the effects of policy interventions. 4 Research Highlights 4.1 Benin In contrast to the IPCC assessment, the regional climate model REMO used in GLOWA-IMPETUS simulates a more substantial drying in West and Central Africa until 2050 (see Fig. 1) of which about two thirds are due to the regional degradation of the land surface by human activities. 198

199 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 1: Simulated reduction in annual rainfall in West and Northwest Africa until 2050 as simulated from a regional climate model (REMO) using IPPC A1B climate and FAO land-use change scenarios. Based on the decreasing annual precipitation simulated by REMO, the renewable freshwater resources in the Ouémé catchment will decline by more than one third by the mid 21 st century (see Figure 2). Especially in the dry season, the uncovered freshwater demand will increase significantly (see Figure2) January February March April May June July August September October November December Scenario B1 A1B Scenario B1 A1B Figure 2: Left: Renewable water resources in the Ouémé-Bonou catchment in Benin for different decades, past (green) and future IPCC scenarios A1B (blue) and B1 (red). Right: Total monthly uncovered freshwater demand in all sectors using the IMPETUS socio-economic scenario economic growth and consolidation of decentralisation combined with the IPCC climate scenario A1B in Mio m

200 ERSEC conference proceeding Based on the reduction in annual rainfall modelled by REMO, the malaria belt in West Africa will retreat southward. Therefore, the epidemic belt will move into the more densely populated, presently endemic area. Here, the dangerous consequence is the loss of partial immunity and an increasing fatality rate. An increase in agricultural area and a high rate of deforestation is modelled for the Upper Ouémé valley. Land use conversions are observed near cities and along roads near forest areas. Adverse impacts can be mitigated by increasing agricultural productivity and by improving land use planning. 4.2 Morocco To combat the trend of declining groundwater tables in the Drâa valley, the introduction of water pricing should be considered as a management option. By using a basin-wide simulation model it could be shown that groundwater charges are a more suitable means for resource preservation compared to surface water pricing, as the buffer value of groundwater would otherwise be neglected. A projected 10% decrease in the average annual precipitation by 2020 will lead to significant depletion of groundwater levels ranging from one meter in the northern Drâa oases to a complete depletion in the two southern oases of the Middle Drâa valley. These adverse impacts can be mitigated by transferring flood runoff directly into the oases without reservoir storage. Snow melt modelling in the subtropical Atlas Mountains reveals high water losses from periods of snow sublimation in winter, reducing its contribution to groundwater formation. Outflow from groundwater is generating the discharge of the mountainous rivers during most time of the year, whereas only extreme events produce floods that refill the Mansour Eddahbi reservoir near Ouarzazate in the Drâa basin. 5 Capacity Development The IMPETUS project has established a continuing cooperation with decision makers and research institutions. IMPETUS provided capacity development at various levels from government administrations to local development projects. In total, 54 capacity development measures with 891 participants were carried out in Benin and Morocco and about 38 colleagues from partner institutions visited German counterparts or graduated from a German university. 200

201 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Partners IMPETUS has collaborated with about 16 and 23 partner organisations in Benin and Morocco, respectively. Among these are the national water and agricultural services and major research institutions and universities. A detailed list is available in the GLOWA brochure and on the project s web page: Contacts University of Cologne, Inst. for Geophysics and Meteorology, Dr. M. Christoph (Project Manager), Kerpener Straße 13, D Köln, Germany, Phone: , Fax: , christoph@meteo.uni-koeln, References: A detailed list of publications about different aspects of the IMPETUS projects are to be found under the link: 201

202 ERSEC conference proceeding Rehabilitation of Degraded Land Ecosystems in Southern Shaanxi Province: An Introduction to a Sino-German Project 中德合作 陕西南部退化土地生态系统修复研究 项目介绍 Hany El Kateb 1, Bernhard Felbermeier 1, Zhang Pingcang 2, Peng Hong 3, Zhang Haifeng 1, Jörg Summ 1, Wang Xiaolan 1 and Reinhard Mosandl 1 1 Institute of Silviculture, Technische Universität München 2 Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chang Jiang River Water Resources Commission 3 Ankang Prefecture Government, Shaanxi Province Abstract The Chinese Government is making multiple efforts to protect water resources in the south of the Shaanxi Province, as land ecosystems have been degraded due to inappropriate land use and deforestation. Rehabilitation of degraded lands is an option which offers potential commercial value as well as important ecological benefits. Therefore, the presented Sino- German project was initiated with the overall objective to develop and demonstrate a "land use planning system for a sustained land use. Information to support the development of the planning system is largely gained from three field experiments on erosion, rehabilitation measures, and assessment of forest resources in addition to a study on socioeconomic assessment in the study area. The conception of the project is based on the assessment of the prevailing situation (erosion of various vegetative covers, forest resources, and socioeconomic conditions), evaluation of rehabilitation measures employed to improve the situation, and the development of the planning system. The land use planning system will provide a range of prospective possibilities to improve the soil and water conservation in the region. Taking into account the particular economic and social considerations, a priority list of areas, where urgent actions must be taken, can be compiled. In addition, recommendations for appropriate land use can be formulated. The application of the land use planning system will enable planning authorities to be familiar with new planning tools, which can be used to achieve a sustainable improvement of the environment and of the living conditions of the local inhabitants. 202

203 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 摘要中国政府采取了一系列的行动对陕南秦巴山区由于长期以来不合理的土地利用和森林破坏所导 致的水环境退化进行保护 对退化山地生态环境进行系统修复是一项可行的措施, 不仅发掘了 其潜在的经济价值, 也优化了生态效益 因此, 这项中德合作研究项目的总体目标是开发和示 范一个着眼于可持续土地利用的 土地利用规划系统 规划系统所需的大部分基础数据来源 于三部分野外实验, 其分别为侵蚀实验, 修复措施实验和森林资源评估, 此外还有一部分社会 经济学研究 本研究项目的理念首先是基于对目前研究区概况的评估 ( 不同植被类型下的水土 流失, 森林资源和社会经济状况 ), 对所应用修复措施效果的评价以及最终规划系统的开发 土地利用规划系统的开发将为区域水土保持生态修复带来一系列的积极效应 在充分考虑特殊 社会和经济因素的前提下, 那些急需采取修复措施的区域将会被区分出来, 而且也可以进一步 给出合理的土地利用建议 该土地利用规划系统的开发有助于决策部门熟悉和掌握现代的管理 工具, 从而达到改善研究区生态环境和提高当地居民生存质量的目的 1 Introduction Multiple attempts have been made by the Chinese Government to improve the environmental situation in China. However, the country s overall sustainable development is endangered due to: increased soil erosions, critical water environment situation due to excessive sedimentation and agrarian pollutants in water streams, raising natural catastrophes of floods and landslides with significantly shorter intervals, and the hazard of poverty of the rural communities as a result of the decrease in land fertility and productivity. The causes of this critical situation are, concisely, inappropriate land use, deforestation, and mining over the last century. However, there are several possible avenues to overcome these challenges, such as: conservation of natural resource as undertaken by the Chinese Government promoting agronomic practice, production, and processing systems that are environmental friendly while in the meanwhile secures sustained income for rural communities developing sustained land use systems that meet the interests of both the government and the rural communities and which enable sustained income for rural inhabitants while in the meanwhile aims at safeguarding human health as well as environmental quality Sustained land use systems can be achieved by several selective measures such as, rehabilitation of degraded lands, afforestation of areas susceptible to erosion, sustainable management of forests, agroforestry, and/or organic farming or integrated agriculture. The approach of the Sino-German Project Rehabilitation of Degraded Land Ecosystems in Southern Shaanxi Province is to develop a Land Use Planning System for an environmental landscape management. This will enable decision makers to introduce 203

204 ERSEC conference proceeding integrative planning techniques, of which the main objectives are to: enhance the environmental landscape management, taking into consideration the ecological, economical and social aspects, and improve the surface water quality through reduction of soil erosion. Figure 1: The study area in the Shangnan County in Southern Shaanxi Province The project is located in Shangnan County in the south of Shaanxi province (Figure 1). The southern Shaanxi province is of special interest due to its role in diverting water to Beijing within the frame of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. In the south of the Shaanxi Province, soil erosion increased rapidly over the last decades (Xi et al. 1997, cf. Figure 2). Soil loss in the region is estimated at t/km 2 /year (Wang et al. 2003). The consequence is raising natural disasters of landslides and floods with considerably shorter intervals of an average of 5-year since the middle of the 20th century, compared to 28-year before this time (Wang et al. 2003). The main reasons for this deterioration are deforestation, and inappropriate land use (Xi et. 1997). Figure 2: Degradation of forests in the south of the Shaanxi Province 204

205 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The former ecosystem in the region embraced 246 woody species from 60 families. Over the last century, the natural forests have been strongly degraded or deforested (Zhang 1986, Jia 1984). The forest coverage decreased from 64 percent to 46 percent compared to the 1950s. Most of the remaining forests are of poor quality or were turned to coppices, bushes, and even grasslands. Average growing stock is estimated at only 7 to 9 m 3 /ha, which is far from its potential. The plantation forests in the region comprise mainly one species and are experiencing structural deficiencies with low stability and sensitivity to disturbances. 2 Scientific Approach Particularly, the widespread erosion occurrence, connected with increased surface discharge of polluted water in the south of Shaanxi province forced actions to be taken. Rehabilitation of the degraded lands is an option, which offers potential commercial value as well as important ecological benefits. Therefore, the presented Sino-German project was initiated with the overall objective to develop and demonstrate a "land use planning system towards sustainable land use. For the realisation of this objective, the research approach is integrative, as the project includes three linked main tasks (Figure 3). Task I includes an experimental component of three different field experiments [Ia) erosion, Ib) afforestation, Ic) assessment of forest resources]. Task II involves a socioeconomic survey in the study area. Both tasks are associated with a system-analysis component on modelling and development of a reliable planning system (Task III). Figure 3: Project tasks 205

206 ERSEC conference proceeding The different project tasks are conducted to pursue the following research questions: Task Ia: Task Ib: Task Ib: Task Ib: Task Ib: Task Ib: Task Ic: Task Ic: Task II: Task III: Task III: Task III: What is the degree of erosion and surface run off on the different vegetative covers? Is afforestation necessary for the rehabilitation of abandoned farm lands? Which degree of success/failure, on the short and medium-term, does each of the investigated tree species have in the afforestation of abandoned farmlands? Under which site conditions can a successful afforestation be practiced on abandoned farmlands? Which short and medium-term impacts does afforestation have on soil and vegetation on abandoned farmlands? Which site preparation techniques for each of the investigated tree species is ecologically and economically feasible and can be practised on abandoned farm lands on a large scale? What is the potential of wood in mass and regeneration in quantity and quality in the high forest? What is the potential of the forest resources to support the reduction of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide and of poverty? What is the degree of acceptance of the local inhabitants to changing the conventional land use in the study area Which ecological enhancement particularly due to rehabilitation technologies can be achieved by land use change? Which impacts of land use changes on socioeconomic conditions can be expected? How can the land use be optimized with regard to the objectives of the sustainable water resource management? The activities associated with the research questions include: 1) The assessment of the prevailing situation of the erosion using all available results from published studies in addition to establishing experimental plots to estimate the sediments and runoff of the different land use structures in the study area. 2) The assessment of the potential of the available forests in order to provide recommendations on the sustainable management of the forest resources. 3) The assessment of the socioeconomic conditions in the study area to detect their relationship to the prevailing environmental quality and to ascertain whether altering the traditional land use can be accepted by the local inhabitants. 4) The evaluation of rehabilitation measures aiming at the ecological and economical enhancement of the different land use structures in addition to establishing permanent experimental plots, which can be used for demonstration, educational and training purposes. 5) The transfer of the results of field experiments from the level of the research plots to spatial management units. 6) The development of the land use planning system using the results and information collected from the different field experiments, spatial information as well as from the available publications and socio-economic studies. 3 Methodologies 3.1 Field experiments (Task I) Figure 4: Dominating vegetative covers in the study area 206

207 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The field experiments include the most frequent land use structures or vegetative covers in the study area (Figure 4). The study is conducted on the dominant yellow-brown soil (84%) in the study area. The field experiments (Figure 5) deal with: a) Estimation of soil erosion and runoff on the different vegetative covers in the study area b) Rehabilitation of degraded lands by afforestation on grasslands c) Assessment of the potential of forest resources (coppices and plantation forests). d) Figure 5: Field experiments on the different vegetative covers 3.2 Layout of the field experiments Research on erosion (Task Ia) is conducted on 5 vegetative covers (Figure 5). Each vegetative cover includes 7 plots having different slope steepness, ranging between 10 and 40. Plots (Figure 6) are used for collecting data on erosion and runoff after each rain event during the rainy season. Zhang 2005 conducted a primary study including nine plots using a similar technique. This study revealed that the technique is appropriate for the measurement of erosion in mountainous areas. Figure 6: Layout of a plot in the erosion experiment (Task Ia) Rehabilitation measures (Task Ib) are practiced on grasslands. Three grasslands in the 207

208 ERSEC conference proceeding study area were selected. On each a block is laid out. A block includes a control plot without any treatment and 4x4 Latin Square. The control plots (Figure 7) are installed for long-term observation on ground vegetation and woody regeneration in order to follow the development in the successional processes. The 4x4 Latin Square, including 16 units, is used for planting of four indigenous tree species of economical and ecological importance (Quercus variabilis, Pinus massoniana, Acer truncatum, and Pistacia chinensis). Each unit is subdivided into two subunits. Each subunit randomly receives one of two levels of site preparation related to reduction of the competitive impact of the ground vegetation: no clearance of ground vegetation, or annual frequent clearance of ground vegetation over a period of 3-5 years. The underlying statistical design is 4x4 Latin Square with subunit treatments arranged in a Split-Plot Design (Figure 8). As the control plots, the Latin squares are permanently installed and can be used for further medium to long-term investigations, and serve demonstration and educational purposes. Figure 7: Layout of a control plot in the rehabilitation experiment (Task Ib) Figure 8: Layout of 4x4 Latin Square in the rehabilitation experiment (Task Ib) Planting will be achieved by 90 saplings unit -1 (45 saplings subunit -1 ). The reason for 208

209 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management this high initial density is that saplings over the observation period will be collected for biomass and root investigations. For the assessment of forest resources (Task Ic), 40 stands are randomly selected in either coppices or plantation forests within the study area. A plot of a size of 20mx20m is installed in each stand. Plots are used for collecting information about the status of the mature stand (on the whole plot) and natural regeneration as well as ground vegetation on systematically distributed sample units on each plot (Figure 9). Figure 9: Layout of a plot in coppices and plantation forests (Task Ic) 3.2 Outline of the statistical analyses techniques According to the designs of the field experiments (Task I), the research hypotheses can be evaluated by means of statistical tests of the null hypotheses using the ANOVA, as the simplest technique employed in the analyses of the collected data. However, there is an interest in testing multivariate hypotheses and in assessing the changes among the various measurements taken over the observation period. Therefore, the simplest univariate hypotheses used in the ANOVA will be reconstructed according to the desired statistical analyses and hypotheses testing. These will include univariate and multivariate analyses of variance and covariance as well as repeated-measures analyses of variance (Bortz 1985, El Kateb et al. 2004, Littell et al. 1991). For discrete variables, multivariable analysis of categorical data techniques (Fienberg 1979, Grizzle et al. 1969, Kleinbaum et al. 1988) will be used. In addition, the designs of the experiments are set flexibly to allow conducting simple and multiple regression analyses to develop models describing the relationships of interests. Furthermore, comparing regression equations of, for example, the different vegetative covers or the different tree species, is meaningful to adequately describe relationships of interest, as for example, precipitation and erosion on the different vegetative covers or diameter and under ground biomass of saplings of the different tree species. The assumptions underlying a design and the validity of models will be examined using 209

210 ERSEC conference proceeding residual analysis and different statistical tests (Cochran and Cox 1992, Draper and Smith 1981, El Kateb 1991, Kleinbaum et al. 1988, Kirk 1995). Finally, the comprehensive statistical analyses will provide reliable information concerning all research questions related to the field experiments. This will considerably enhance the accuracy of the land use planning system. 3.4 Socioeconomic assessment (Task II) Socioeconomic questionnaires (Task II) will be conducted on 200 households in the study area. The questionnaires take into account the following aspects: land use, usage of timber and non-timber products, energy sources, knowledge about the hazard of inappropriate land use, soil and water conservation, efficiency of collaboration with local authorities, and other social and environmental aspects. For the analysis of the socioeconomic data, descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and regression analyses will be performed to describe the socioeconomic variables, to group the households into clusters, and to identify relationships between the socioeconomic variables and the environmental quality in the study area, respectively. 3.5 Land use planning system (Task III) The concept of the land use planning system lays emphasis on the development of proposals for land use management plans, which are derived from land use options defined by decision makers (Figure 11). The development process of the system employs the data and results of the Tasks I and II (Figure 10). It includes the following work packages: Collection of observation data: The results of the field experiments (Task I) and the socioeconomic study (Task II) will be aggregated, remote sensing data of the study area will be analyzed and interpreted, and information from the Chinese administration will be acquired. Collection of modelling tools: A set of tools for the simulation of management options will be assembled. This includes the adaptation of already existing models as well as the application of models of erosion and forest development derived from Task I. Simulation of management options: Different management options will be defined in collaboration with Chinese decision makers and will then be simulated for the study area. Planning tools: 210

211 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Finally, different planning tools from operations research and spatial science will be developed to assemble proposals of land use management plans based on the defined management options and the objectives of the Chinese decision makers. Figure 10: Inputs, tools, outputs and applications of results of Task I and Task II Figure 11: Structure of the land use planning system (Task III) The development of the system will be supported by a team composed of Chinese experts and decision makers, in order to secure the congruence between the project team and subsequent users. The layout of the planning system (Figure 11) will contain three 211

212 ERSEC conference proceeding modules to implement the workflow from science to application. Time series of the defined management options will be stored in a relational database module. This information will be associated with the spatial information available for the study area and will be stored in a geographic information system module. Finally, user requirements and planning instruments are combined in the plan module. Using this plan module, decision makers or system users can submit proposals for land use management plans on a scientific basis. 4 Results and their Applications The collected data from the erosion research (Task Ia) will be used for developing models describing the relationship between a series of predictors including the study factors and erosion or runoff. This in turn enables the classification of the study area in categories according to susceptibility to erosion and urgency of actions to be taken. The investigations carried out on the control plots, where no afforestation is implemented, in the rehabilitation experiment (Task Ib) will provide information about the natural regeneration of the woody vegetation and its development and, thus, support the decision making of the indispensability or dispensability of the afforestation measures. The results (Task Ib) will help providing recommendations, based on ecological and economical assessments, for appropriate forestation in the study area and in areas of a comparable situation, which are widespread in the south of the Shaanxi Province. The recommendations will be compiled in a brochure to be introduced to authorities, scientists, and consultants dealing with rehabilitation of degraded lands. The permanent plots of the afforestation experiment (Task Ib) can be used for further medium to long-term investigations, as the effect of tending and thinning techniques on growth and quality of young stands and, hence, serve demonstration, research and educational purposes. The outcomes of assessment of forests (Task Ic) will provide information about the potential of the stands and the availability of regeneration and its growth potential. This can be used to assemble recommendations either for conservation efforts or for sustainable management options to improve the stands mass and quality or to improve the development of the natural regeneration. In addition, information about the potential of non-timber products and the potential to support the reduction of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide will be gained to support evaluating the management options. The results of all field experiments (Task I) will be used in the development of the land 212

213 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management use planning system. The socioeconomic survey (Task II) will provide information about the traditional land use practice, usage of timber and non-timber products, energy sources, knowledge about the hazard of inappropriate land use, and the degree of acceptance to changing the conventional land use practices. In addition, relationships between the prevailing environmental conditions and socioeconomic parameters can be detected. This valuable information will be considered in the land use planning system in order to develop strategies for the regional sustainability. The planning system (Task III) will be used to achieve the research objectives and to support the transfer of the scientific findings into China s environmental planning. The land use planning system will enable detecting a range of prospective possibilities to improve the soil and water conservation in the region. Taking into account the particular economic and social restrictions, a priority list of areas where urgent actions must be taken, can be compiled. In addition, recommendations for appropriate land use can be formulated. The application of the system will enable planning authorities to be familiar with new planning tools, which can be used to achieve a sustainable improvement of the environment and of the living conditions of the local inhabitants. Acknowledgments The presented project is being funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). Grateful acknowledgment is given to the BMBF for funding the project, to the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for providing Doctoral Grants for two Chinese Students and to the Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chang Jiang River Water Resources Commission for the financial contribution to conduct the research work in the study area. References 1. Bortz J (1985) Lehrbuch der Statistik für Sozialwissenschaftler. 2nd edition, Springer, Berlin 2. Cochran WG, Cox GM (1992) Experimental Designs. 2nd edition, Wiley, New York 3. Draper NR, Smith H (1981) Applied regression analysis, 2nd edition, J. Wiley & Sons, New York 4. El Kateb H (1991) Der Einfluß waldbaulicher Maßnahmen auf die Sproßgewichte von Naturverjüngungspflanzen im Bergmischwald, Forstliche Forschungsberichte 111, Munich, 193 pp 5. El Kateb H, Benabdellah B, Ammer C, Mosandl R (2004) Reforestation with native tree species using site preparation techniques for the restoration of woodland degraded by air pollution in the Erzgebirge, Germany. Eur J Forest Res 123: Fienberg SE (1979): The analysis of cross-classified categorical data. 3rd printing, The MIT 213

214 ERSEC conference proceeding Press, Massachusetts 7. Grizzle JE, Starmer CF, Koch GG (1969): Analysis of categorical data by linear models. Biometrics, 25: Jia SM (1984): Agricultural resources investigation and planning for Shangnan County. Internal document from the county of Shangnan, Shangnan, P Kirk RE (1995) Experimental design: Procedures for the Behavioural Sciences. 3rd edition, Brooks/Cole Publishing Company, Pacific Grove, CA 10. Kleinbaum DG, Kupper LL, Muller KE (1988) Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. 2nd edition, PWS-Kent, Boston 11. Littell RC, Freund RJ, Spector PC (1991) SAS System for Linear Models. 3rd edition, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, NC 12. Wang Y, Wen A and Zhang X (2003): Study of Soil Erosion on Cultivated Slope Land in Severe soil Loss Regions of Upper Reaches of Yangtze River Basin Using 137Cs Technique. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 13. Xi Z, Sun H, Li X (1997): Characteristics of soil erosion and its Space-time distributive pattern in southern Mountains of Shaanxi Province. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 3: Zhang H (2005): Study on abandoned farmland vegetation community characteristics and soil erosion and none-point source pollution at water catchment region of middle route for Southto-North Water Diversion project. Dissertation for Master Degree of Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China. 55 pp 15. Zhang YQ (1986): Forestry in Shaanxi. Shaanxi Science and Technology Publishing House & China Forestry Publishing House, Xian & Peking, P

215 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Internalisation of Environmental Costs of Plant Production Systems in China A Standard Gross Margins Approach 将环境保护费用纳入中国经济作物生产系统 一个标准毛利率办法 Leif Heimfarth and Holger Bergmann Department for Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, University of Goettingen, Germany Abstract Chinese agriculture uses 30.3% of artificial fertilizers produced worldwide, while China only produces 16.7% of the world s agricultural commodities. With the target to ensure food security at above 100% of consumer demand, farmers, especially in the Great North Eastern Plains of China, are worldwide below those who have on the one hand highest yields per ha, but on the other hand use probably double as much fertilizers (especially nitrogen) as the most among all other nations (e.g. Germany uses 208 kg artificial fertilizers per ha, France uses 192 kg per ha and China uses 329 kg per ha in the Great Plains). As energy prices are supported (lowered artificially) by China, nitrogen compared to Europe is cheap and subsequently used in higher doses than would be appropriate under EU conditions. There are several possible reasons for this: (1) lack of information, (2) lack of farmer s education and qualifications and (3) risk-averse behaviour of Chinese farmers. Employing the usefulness of a linear modelling approach is shown for the analysis and integration of environmental concern in decision support systems by a case study. With the newly started project Reduction of the Excessive Mineral Nitrogen Fertilization in Intensive Chinese Agriculture agricultural and environmental economics investigations we are analysing why Chinese farmers employ those high doses of nitrogen per ha. Furthermore, we show in this paper how useful the Standard Gross Margins approach in combination with a Linear Programming model is. This approach is especially useful insofar as it is a decision support system which is easy to understand for Chinese farmers and can be developed to include economic as well as environmental issues. Overall the presented approach (starting by September 2008) will develop recommendations 215

216 ERSEC conference proceeding on how to reduce environmental pollution of agriculture by increasing yields per ha. 摘要中国农业的化肥消耗占全世界化肥生产的 30.3% 而中国生产的农产品只占世界的 16.7% 为了 保证实现中国大于 100% 的粮食供应目标, 农民们尤其是在中国东北广大地区的农民, 一方面 拥有每公顷农田上的世界最高产量, 另一方面为此需要使用与其他国家相比将近双倍的肥料 ( 尤其是氮肥 ),( 比如德国每公顷农田的化肥使用量是 208 公斤, 法国是每公顷 192 公斤, 而 中国在大平原地区使用的化肥量是每公顷 329 公斤 ) 因为中国的能源价格是受到国家调控的 ( 人为降低价格 ), 所以氮的价格比欧洲国家便宜而且投入使用率也比那些欧盟国家普遍要高 这可能有几种原因 : 第一, 信息滞后 ; 第二, 农民缺乏教育和培训 ; 第三, 中国农民的风险规 避行为 根据案例研究来指出线性规则如何运用在分析以及将环境因素纳入到决策支持系统中 我们希望通过这个新启动的项目 降低中国集约化耕种中过多的矿物氮肥 农业和环境经济的调查研究 来分析中国农民会在每公顷农田上使用这么多的氮肥的原因 另外, 本文还将说明与线性规划相结合的标准毛利率办法的实用性 这种办法有助于为中国农民找到一种易于理解的能兼顾经济因素和环境因素的决策系统 统观现行的规划 ( 从 2008 年 9 月开始实行 ), 本文提出在增加每公顷农业产量的同时怎样来减少环境污染的建议 1 Chinese Fertiliser Use from an Outsiders Perspective China is worldwide the largest producer and consumer of food as well as the largest consumer of agricultural inputs (especially artificial fertilizers). China composes over 20% of the world s population but contains only 7% of world s arable land ( 2005). Hitherto the highest priority of Chinese agricultural policy is to provide a sufficient level of food produced on national land rather than from import. Food security and highest possible commodity yields are reached by high application rates of artificial fertilizers (see below; Römheld and Zhang, 2004). Driven by (a) a fast growing population (2006: population growth 5.28 ); (b) fast growing income per capita and subsequently changing dietary patterns, intensification of Chinese agriculture accelerates in speed (Carter, 2001). In the future it is likely that further economic growth will increase demand for meat and beef as well as other products of husbandry (FAO, 2004). Due to the high consumption demand of an ever growing population (see Table 1), China is producing 16.7% of the world s agricultural commodities. The production of the most 216

217 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management important agricultural goods (Table 1) was increasing rapidly during the last decades. In production of main food crops like wheat, China (in Mio. t; 15.6% of world production) ranks second behind the EU-27 (131 Mio. t). In the production of corn China (139.4 Mio. t; 20%) lies only behind the United States of America (282.3 Mio. t). In milled rice production China (128 Mio. t; 30.6%) is the biggest producer worldwide (ACTI, 2007). Table 1 shows that grain production is reduced by an increasing production of cash-crops (fruits, oilseeds, cotton, etc.). With respect to the fertilizer applications it can be concluded that these crops need a higher fertilization than (most) Grains. In areas of intensive vegetable production in China 1800 kg N/ ha is quite common (c.f. Metzner 2006). The production of livestock products (Table 1) in China has increased rapidly in the last decade. The needed amount in feed grain consumption per unit of livestock to produce 1 kg meat is 4.4 kg grain for 1 kg pork, and 2.7 kg grain for 1 kg poultry (Nakaja et al., 2002). In comparison the general standards in German agriculture are 2 to 3 kg grain for 1 kg pork and 1.1. kg for poultry. It is well known, that increased economic well-being leads to a higher consumer demand for meat production which subsequently is followed by a higher demand for fodder crops (esp. fodder grain) and other husbandry inputs (Alvensleben v., 2001). Commodity In Mio. T Table 8: Changes in main agricultural commodities in China (Mio. t) Grain Cotton Oilseeds Sugar cane Sugar beet Tobacco Fruits Meat Aqua products Population size (in Mio. Persons) 963 1,143 1,267 1,285 1,292 Population growth (in ) Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2006) 217

218 ERSEC conference proceeding Chinese agriculture uses probably 30.3% of artificial fertilizers produced worldwide (Table 2) and the consumption of the main fertilizers nitrogen (N), phosphate (P 2 O 5 ) and potash (K 2 O) has increased from 27.3 Mio. t. to over 50 Mio. t. per year during the last two decades (FAO, 2008). Across the country, large differences exist in fertilizer usage per ha especially in the application of nitrogen (see Ju et al., 2004). Furthermore applications as well as production systems and main commodities differ significantly across regions (e.g. in Western China mostly husbandry systems dominate, while in the South rice and in the North wheat is the dominant product). Table 9: Worldwide and Chinese fertilizer production 2006 Fertilizer in 1000 tonnes World China (Share of world production) Nitrogen (N) 95.9 Phosphate (P 2O 5) 38.8 Potash (K 2O) 30.2 Total Source: FAO (2008) 35.3 (36.7) 12.6 (32.3) 2.1 (6.7) 50.0 (30.3) Table 10: Application rates per ha in comparison in 2007 Fertilizer in kg/ha China Germany France EU-27 N + P 2O 5+ K 2O Source: FAO (2008) Farmers in the Great Plains of the north- and south-east of China are worldwide below those who have the highest yields per ha (ibid.). The average grain yield per ha in 2006 in the world was 30.0 dt/ha while China yields were nearly 50% higher with 46.0 dt/ha (+53.3%) (FAO, 2008). However, Chinese farmers in those regions use double as much fertilizer per hectare (especially nitrogen) than any other nation in the world (see Table 3). As energy prices are supported (lowered artificially) by China, nitrogen compared to Europe is cheap and subsequently used in higher doses. While in Europe the use of fertilizer consulting services is frequently offered by competing service providers (state, farmer cooperatives, non-governmental organisations (NGO) and businesses) such advice in China is to a large extent only available as a service of 218

219 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management fertilizer and pesticide manufactures (Metzner, 2006). Obviously fertilizer enterprises are interested in increasing their sales rather than to advise their clientele to use their inputs in a cost-saving efficient way. The reasons for the high application of fertilizer by Chinese farmers in our understanding can be found in: (1) lack of information (Brandes and Odening, 1992). This might result from a deficit of information about the relationship between gross margins, factor-yield-ratios and environmental impacts. The aim of the research here is the comparison of possible monetary effects resulting from an economy with nitrogen fertilizers to show the benefits under different production methods. (2) lack of farmers education and qualifications leading to uneconomical use of fertilizers and environmental pollution. Most important in the public eye are the negative external effect which arises from the effort to use a high level of fertilizers which results in a reduction in the quality of the local basic and surface water supply. Such can be reduced respecting the marginal cost approach in nitrogen application. (3) risk-averse behaviour of farmers. This behaviour forms the factor-yield relationship with regard to the use of nitrogen fertilizers and was strongly influenced by official administration and consultants in so far as the physical maximum yield was promoted rather than the economically efficient yield per ha. The main ecological pollutions resulting from high intensive production methods in agriculture can be summarized as: liability of soil and ground water (especially by overuse of fertilizers and pesticides), lowering of the water-table (by intensive irrigation) and water shortage. Further reasons that make the farming sector suffer are erosion and desertification. 2 Farm Modelling and Environmental Optimization Modelling farmer behaviour can be done by a confusing number of methods and models (e.g. world trade models, agent based models, non-linear as well as linear models, etc. Zander et al. 2008). However, two streams of literature can be differentiated: Those that employ maximum profitability of farm enterprises (mainly supply driven models) and those employing maximum farm household income models (mainly demand driven models). The first ones have become popular in literature throughout the last 50 years (or so) as most authors assumed that farm enterprises are ordinary enterprises. The later one only saw a revived interest after Amartya Sen won a noble price and subsequently efforts started (in a combination of works by Gary S. Becker) to analyse the behaviour of farm households with more insistence. The most prominent approach in both approaches is the combination of Standard 219

220 ERSEC conference proceeding Gross Margin approaches and the linear programming method. Such approaches have been found a significant use in the last decades and proved not only attractive to academic interest but also useful in decision support for consultants as well as farm managers. A more detailed modelling and optimization of farms and farm households involves the analysis of the conditions of production prevailing at the different sites and in different households. Marginal returns are made for each individual test field of the recorded data (e.g., application rates of labour, machinery costs, fertilizers, pesticides, etc.). These can be calculated in annual cycles, as well as for individual fruits (at diverse harvestings). For the marginal cost approach the standard gross margin analysis (SGMA) will be applied to observe the costs and benefits of one unit of production and to compare standardized different production methods, farms and regions. This approach is quite common in the EU-27 to assess the viability of farm enterprises (e.g., Andersen et al., 2007 or Calus et al., 2008) and for cross-national comparisons within the FADN (Farm accountancy data network) data base run by the European Commission (EC, n.d.) Standard Gross margin analysis (SGMA) The standard gross margin (SGM) of a crop or livestock item is defined as the value of output from one hectare or from one animal, less the cost of variable inputs required to produce that output (ibid.). Generally these variable inputs are capital, intermediate inputs (e.g., fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, etc.) and labour (family own and hired). Normally costs for land rent as well as other short term fixed costs are excluded from the SGM; as such costs can only be changed over the medium or long term. SGMA indicates by input-output relations the increasing units of the total gain of a farm if a specific production method increases by one unit, constrained by the availability of fixed and quasi-fixed production factors (Steinhauser et al., 1992). The resources on a farm taken by a specific production process as the general basis for calculating are classified following Steinhauser et al. (1992) in: (1) Resources that take proportional special costs: Goods, services and rights available on market in any order (seeds, fertilizer, etc.). (2) Resources that do not take proportional special costs: Resources in limited, fixed or quasi-fixed units (buildings, farmland, family workers, etc.). The requirement of these receivable production factors is expressed in natural units. The costs of these factors are subject to the conditions of scarcity. 7 See for more detail 220

221 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management (3) Products that take in utilization to proportional benefit (commodities ready for sale like grain, milk, etc.). (4) Products that take in utilization to no proportional benefit (non-market commodities like hay, grass, etc.). By adding up the field a specific gross margin of a farm, farm-specific gross margins can be calculated, so as to compare and analyse a possible farm development path. Within calculations nearly proportional units are handled as proportional. For example, the assumption that the cultivation of two hectare wheat/rice produces double as much fertilizer costs as one hectare wheat/rice. In contrast to the exactness of the used data, this error might be acceptable. Generally, SGMs have proved to be superior to Total Cost approaches in so far as they allow the comparison across different farm organisations and regions and add to the understanding of short- and medium-term behaviour of farmers. 2.2 Linear programming (LP) With the linear programming (LP) method the optimum profit based on specific farm total gross margin can be calculated for farms. The LP approach concentrates on the different opportunities of farm developments to analyse the economic performance in a number of specific scenarios (e.g., what happens if a nitrogen tax is introduced, if a labour shortage occurs, if a production system is banned, etc). The LP algorithm (Simplex) solves the optimization problems on farms, based on linear relations (see Steinhauser et al., 1992). The mathematical method enables us to find a number of simultaneous variables and the optimum solution for a certain goal within given constraints (Stingel, 2002). Under the given constraints of capacities, LP leads compellingly to a farm optimum. After solving the combination of plant and animal production processes, the maximum TGM of the farm will be reached. While determining the solution, different activities do not compete stepwise against each other but compete simultaneously for the best utilization of the constrained capacities. Due to this, the different activities are efficiently combined with respect to the intra-farm relations. It is useful to generalize the symbols for calculating in: x1, x2, x3,..., x n production processes c1, c2, c3,..., c n respective gross margin of a production process b1, b2, b3,..., b m farm capacities 221

222 ERSEC conference proceeding a11, a12, a13,..., a 1n factor requirements (measuring goods and bads) a21, a22, a23,..., a 2n natural requirements coefficients of the production processes M M a, a, a,..., a m1 m2 m3 mn After sampling the data a target function is developed. The function of the optimization problem to maximize the total gross margin (TGM) is expressed in the following: The value of this equation (TGM) has to be maximized (1.1) TGM = c1x 1+ c2x cnxn with the restriction that no limited capacity gets overload: (1.2) b1 a11x1+ a12x a1 nxn b2 a21x1+ a22x a2nxn M M M M b a x + a x + + a x m m1 1 m mn n as well as with the restriction that no unit gets negative: (1.3) x1, x2,..., xn 0 The equations (1.2) express the optimization problem that the sum of requirements of all production processes to the current capacities has to be smaller or equal to but not bigger than the according capacity. The last row (1.3) considers the non-negative right-hand side of the production processes (it is not possible to produce 1 ha wheat or 1 cow). Simplified, the different production processes and gross margins as well as the different capacities and natural coefficients of the production processes are: x j ( j = 1... n) realised extent of the production processes c j ( j = 1... n) gross margins b i ( j = 1... m) capacities and limitations a ( i = 1... m ) ij ( j = 1... n) extent of factor use in production processes The simplified target function (2.1) includes the aim to search the unknown variables x, x,..., x n that the value of TGM gets maximized. 1 2 (2.1) n TGM = c x = max j= 1 j j 222

223 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The constraints for the different capacities are sampled under (2.2) and (2.3) and describe the non-negative right-hand side for the production processes. (2.2) b n ax ( i= 1,2,..., m) and i ij j j= 1 (2.3) x j 0 ( i= 1,2,..., n) In both shown cases the planning task appoints the process (process units) x1, x2,..., xn of the different production processes P j ( j = 1,2,..., n), which in sum of the respective gross margins cx j j reach the maximum value. The level of expansion of the different production processes is constrained by limited available factors F i ( i= 1,2,..., m). The sum of limited factors in specific processes ax ij j must be smaller than the available amount of these factors b i. Within the process combination all process levels x1, x2,..., x n have to be positive because negative dimension of processes is not possible. 3 Observations and Case Study In this chapter the case study of Bergmann (2004) shows the practicality of marginal cost approaches as well as linear programming methods to calculate the farm optimum (maximized TGM). Additionally compensation costs have been calculated. Bergmann (2004) uses a marginal cost approach in a farm-specific LP model in order to analyse the farm enterprise impact of grassland extensification in support of nature protecting biodiversity. In more detail, the study describes the marginal protection costs of two butterfly species on the extensive grassland. The calculations are made under the side constraint to extensify grassland use by the farmers. In order to shift cutting dates to protect the flowers, which are essential for the butterflies, farmers have to be compensated. The needed compensation for an extensification was calculated using marginal costs and a production function by Opitz von Boberfeld (1994). Standard gross margin calculations were used to determine the compensation payments for the foregone profit for farmers. It was assumed that the farmers purchase concentrates as additional fodder to compensate the loss of energy yields through later cuts. Using linear programming the sum of gross margins per production unit was maximized (maximized TGM). The results (c.f. Figure 1 and Figure 2) show that as energy content in fodder decreases over time (with energy content of 6 or more MJ NEL per kg DM (dry matter)), the 223

224 ERSEC conference proceeding fodder was usable in intensive cattle production, and fodder between 4 and 6 MJ NEL per kg DM was mostly usable in horse and heifer nutrition). dt DM/ha May 01 Jun Yield in dt MJ NEL/kg 15 Jun 29 Jun 13 Jul 27. Jul Date of first cut 10. Aug 24. Aug MJ NEL/kg DM Figure 1: Effect of different mowing dates on MJ NEL (not energy) lacatation/kg, DM (dry matter)/ha and their usablibility Source: Bergmann (2004) Euro per ha June 15 June Compensation Costs per ha 29 June 13 July Mowing date Figure 2: Compensation costs in dependence of mowing date (1 cut a year) Source: Bergmann (2004) 27.July 10 Aug 24 Aug In the case of mowing regimes with a first cut later than the beginning of August, farmers have to be compensated for the complete loss of usability of the meadow. The curve of calculated compensations (Figure 2) therefore had three different stages, (1) until 15 th of June with compensation amounts about a 200 /ha, (2) from 15 th of June until the 1 st of August with compensation costs increasing from about a 200 /ha to 1000 /ha and (3) after the 1 st of August, when the total loss of usability was presumed and a compensation of 1156 /ha was calculated. These payments are the difference between the TGM of the farm without changing cutting dates and the different stages of losses. Four different farm types from cereal specialised farms with a 100% of arable land to 224

225 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management one farm organisation with only dairy cows and grasslands have been modelled in an LP to analyse the effects of the above explained shifts in moving dates. The results in table 4 show the increasing compensation costs to reach the (maximized) TGM to the reference level by increasing the extensification of grassland. On reference level (0% extensive grassland) the compensation costs equal zero. With 120 ha of extensive grassland (100%) the needed costs to compensate TGM losses are (or 258 /ha). The compensation costs compound the costs for purchasing concentrates as well as compensations for losses in gross margins of grain production (wheat, barley, etc.) due to less cultivation in ha. Table 11: Production structures in dependence of extensifying grassland Model (4 farm average) Ref. 1% 10% 20% 35% 50% 75% 100% TGM in Winter wheat ha WR Winter barley ha Titicale ha Rape ha Maize (Silage) Fallow ha Arable land crops ha intensive Grassland ha extensive Grassland ha Arable land total ha Mother cows pieces Compensation costs per year total in Source: Bergmann (2004) Two conclusions can be drawn from the above (see presented results (a) Gross margin approaches are useful as a basis for farm optimization (b) Farmers` behaviour in the framework of economic rationality can be modelled with the LP approach (c) More specifically about the case study with an LP the compensation costs for farmers can be calculated. Furthermore the extensification of grassland will result in an increase of highly intensive conventional maize production or other intensive production systems, which are known to have negative external effects (Scheringer, 2002) 225

226 ERSEC conference proceeding 4 Main Objectives of the Proposed Research Project With the newly started project Reduction of the Excessive Mineral Nitrogen Fertilization in Intensive Chinese Agriculture agricultural and environmental economics investigations we are analysing why Chinese farmers employ those high doses nitrogen per ha. During the project we will, in cooperation with the Chinese partners at the CCAP, collect data on-farm that will be fed into a general model employing the linear programming approach. The activities of the model include crop and animal production, environmental effects as well as household farm activities. The economic effects of fertilizer reduction will be estimated by different scenarios including changes of domestic and local agricultural product prices, chemical and organic fertilizer prices as well as wages. In addition, changes in governmental development strategy, environmental criteria, food demand structure and growth as socio-demographic scenarios will be considered. With the high intensive production methods and the overuse of artificial fertilizers in mind, the main objective of this research project is to optimize the (nitrogen) fertilizer application rates on Chinese agricultural farms. The aim is to develop an easy to understand measure for farmers in China to analyse by themselves their economic behaviour. The calculations will be made on a hectare basis using the marginal cost approach and on a farm-specific basis using a linear programming method. The target includes the comparison of marginal costs and benefits of different fertilizer reduction strategies on farms or between regions. Following suite is the law for growth factors formulated in 1909 by Mitscherlich (Oehmichen et al., 1986). This agrees with the economic theory of marginal yield decrease with increasing use of factors. The theory stipulates the marginal yield sinks after the reaching of the economic optimum point by an increase of the fertilizer expense, and it decreases after the yield reaches its maximum level. From these circumstances it can be concluded that the optimum level of nitrogen usage lies below the potential maximum yield level due to the diminishing marginal utility of nitrogen input (Steinhauser et al., 1992). Overall this project will develop recommendations on how to reduce environmental pollution of agriculture by increasing yields per ha. 226

227 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The pilot areas for field research are: Yixing County, South China (an economically highly developed area), Huai an County, South China (an emerging area with a grain production base), Quzhou County and Huimin County, North China (both with typically cereal crop rotations) and Shouguang County, North China (mainly greenhouse production). The needed data for gross margin calculations will be collected in a concerted effort of the Chinese and German partnership in the project (household specific economic data, survey approach, specific market and input-output data of Chinese agricultural production). The recorded data will provide new insights in farmers and farm household behaviour in China. Based on these, we will develop a general farming model by linear programming. The economic effects and the environmental costs of fertilizer reduction will be estimated by different scenarios, including changes of domestic and local agricultural prices, chemical and organic fertilizer prices as well as wage and labour. In addition we will consider changes in governmental development strategies, environmental criteria, food demand structures and growth for socio-demographic scenarios. For the dissemination process on all relevant scales, as well as for the development of the recommendations we will create: A report on economic performance and possibilities to adapt new and innovative sustainable agricultural production systems, to meet the challenges in agricultural input and output markets A report on different policy scenarios and their influence on the efficiency of production systems A report on the elaboration of optimized fertilization schemes by using the approach of Roelcke et al. (1998; 2004; 2005). The dissemination process will include the farms, the local and regional administrative and scientific community. 5 Conclusion and Outlook 5.1 Conclusion Hitherto, intensification of agricultural production systems in China is linked to increasing fertilization which is inter alia coupled with environmental pollution of soil and water. There are some obvious drivers of such increasing pollution, as the development of food demand (especially rising demand for meat coupled with demand for fodder grain) as well as the low fertilizer costs for Chinese farmers. Lack of information, lack of education of farmers as well as the risk-avers behaviour of the farmers contribute to the overuse of nitrogen fertilizer. 227

228 ERSEC conference proceeding The standard gross margin approach and the linear programming approach have been described. The usability of both methods has been shown in a case study. The observations confirm the practicality of the methodological approach of the proposed project. Bergmann (2004) has shown the usability of gross margin approaches and linear programming methods to calculate exactly the compensation for losses in TGM on farms by changing the production method. It was shown that the (maximized) TGM can be calculated with respect to variances in costs as well as in changing production methods. Additionally Bergmann (2004) shows that by setting the right incentives, farmers behaviour can be changed to become more environmental friendly. 5.2 Outlook Agriculture in China is still the most important sector factor in the rural area providing income, food and employment. The ratio of agriculture to gross domestic product (GDP) amounts 12.5% in 2006 (secondary sector 55.6%; tertiary sector 31.9%). Employment in rural areas is 483 Mio. workers of which 325 Mio. are farm labour (66%). All other available work force (131 Mio.) is either working in townships, secondary and tertiary sector businesses or migrant labour (c.f. Heimfarth, 2006). Of the total arable land in China (122 Mio. ha) two thirds is used for grain production, at which per rural worker less than 0.3 ha is available (ibid.). This ensures livelihood and current revenue. As specialisation and intensification of farming continues in China, significant environmental problems appear. Such effects (see above the main ecological pollutions of Chinese agriculture) are generally non-intentional and mostly not known, with all their consequences, by those who caused them. Hence, environmental (e.g., nitrogen pollution of groundwater, etc.) and social (e.g., increased infant mortality caused by air pollution, etc.) are not taken into account by individual farmers and farm cooperatives in their decision making process (Essen v., et al., 2007). Internalisation of environmental and social costs means making such effects part of the decision making process. From the point of view of environmental economics, the ecological liability may be interpreted as an instrument for internalization of negative environmental externalities, as the Pigou tax or the Coase theorem (Fiedor, 2003). The Coase theorem (Coase, 1960) stipulates that markets handle and solve problems based on external effects by the pareto optimal allocation of resources autonomously. For this the market actors (in the project farmers, rural society and the central government) need near perfect information about the effects and externalities of their activities. Subsequently it can be assumed that by a combination of economic, legislative and soft measures, farmers will internalise environmental costs into their production decisions. 228

229 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management References 1. Alvensleben, R.v., Agrarprodukte und Agrarmärkte in der Europäischen Union unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Ökoprodukten, Tierschutzaspekten und Produkten aus der Region, Institut für Agrarökonomie der Universität Kiel, 11. ZUFO-Umweltsymposium Münster. agrar arketing/ Leh rstuhl/agrarprodukte.pdf 2. Andersen, E.; Elbersen, B.; Godeschalk, F.; Verhoog, D., Farm management indicators and farm typologies as a basis for assessments in a changing policy environment. Journal of Environmental Management, Volume 82, Issue 3, February 2007, Pages Boberfeld, O.v., Grünlandlehre. Ulmer, Stuttgart 4. Brandes, W.; Odening, M Investition, Finanzierung und Wachstum in der Landwirtschaft. Ulmer, Stuttgart 5. Calus, M.; Van Huylenbroeck, G.; Van Lierde, G., The Relationship between Farm Succession and Farm Assets on Belgian Farms. Sociologia Ruralis, Volume 48 Issue 1, Pages Carter, C.A., Current and Future Trends in the Global Wheat Market. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Houston. Cimm yt.org /research/ Ec onomics/map/facts_trends/wheat00-01/pdf/wheat00-01_pa rt3.p df 7. China Daily, May 15, China.org, Zahlen und Fakten der Landwirtschaft Essen, H.P.v., Methodologies for external cost estimates and internalization scenarios - Discussion paper for the workshop on internalization on March 15, FAO, Statistical Yearbook 2004 Vol. 2. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome FAO, FAOSTAT Database - several issues. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome Fiedor, B., Economic Aspects of Ecological Liability And Its Insurance international experience and the polish case. JRP/ ResearchPaper2003/ Fiedor.pdf 13. Hazel, P.B.R., and Norton, R.D., Mathematical Programming for economic Analysis in Agriculture. MacMillan, New York 14. Heimfarth, L.E., Investitionsmöglichkeiten in der Chinesischen Agrarwirtschaft unter Betrachtung der wirtschaftlichen und politischen Risiken der Volksrepublik China und einer Lukrativitätsanalyse für Ausländische Investoren. Diploma Thesis, Bernburg, unpublished 15. Metzner, U., China hat noch einen langen Weg zu gehen. ww.s chweiz erbau er.ch/htmls/artikel_41.html 16. Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), China agricultural yearbook. Ministry of Agriculture, China. 17. Nakaya, T.; Shimizu, Y., A Grid-surface Projection of Major Grain Consumption in China. In Study Process impact Land-Use Chang China Final Rep LU/GEC second Phase. Center for Global Environmental Research, ISSN National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2006, several issues. 229

230 ERSEC conference proceeding Oehmichen, J., Stickstoff und Herbizide im Rhein. Vom Wasser, 66: Roelcke, M., et al., Recent trends and recommendations for nitrogen fertilization in intensive agriculture in eastern China. Phedosphere 14(4): Roelcke, M., et al., Ecological and agro-economical aspects of nitrogen pollution in an intensive croppings system in eastern China. In El Bassam, N. et al. (Eds.), Sustainable agriculture for food, energy and industry: Strategies towards achievement. Proceedings of the International Conference in Braunschweig, June 1997, Vol. 1. London: James & James (Science publisher) Ltd.,: Roelcke, M., Han, Y., Cai, Z.C., and Richter, J., Nitrogen mineralization in paddy soils of the Chinese Taihu Region under aerobic conditions. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 63(2-3): Roelcke, M., Li, X.S., Tian, X.H., Gao, Y.J., and Richter, J., (2002). In situ comparisons of ammonia volatilization from N fertilizers in Chinese loess soils. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems 62 (1): Roelcke, M., Han, Y., Schleef, K-H., Zhu, J.G., and Liu, G., 2005a. Trends and recommendations for nitrogen fertilization in eastern China s intensive agriculture. In: Proceedings of International Conference on Sustainable Resource Management for Intensive Agriculture Systems (UNESCO). Beijing, April 5-7, ERSEC Ecological Book Series 1 on Sustainable Agriculture Systems, Tsinghua University Press, Beijing, and Springer, New York, pp Roelcke, M., Han, Y., Schleef, K-H., Zhu, J.G., Liu, G., Cai, Z.C., and Richter, J., Recent trends and recommendations for nitrogen fertilization in intensive agriculture in eastern China. Pedosphere 14: Römheld, V., and Zhang, F., Sino-German Research Project on Agricultural Production in Northern China: Recommendations for Farmers and Policy Makers. In ERSEC Ecological Book series -1 Promoting environmentally- friendly agricultural production in China, Resource Management for Sustainable intensive agricultural systems. International Conference, Beijing, 2004: Scheringer, J., Nitrogen on dairy farms: balances and efficiency. Excelsior, Hohengandern 28. Steinhauser, H., Langbehn, C., Peters, U., Einführung in die landwirtschaftliche Betriebslehre Allgemeiner Teil. Ulmer, Stuttgart 29. Stingel, P., Operations Research. Carl-Hauser, Nürnberg 30. Töpfer International (ACTI), Statistical Information about the Grain and Feedstuff Market. A.C. Toepfer International, Hamburg. /media/ To epfer_statistikbroschuere_aug06.pdf 31. Zander, P., Groot, J.C.J., Josien, E., Karpinski, I., Knierim, A., Madureira, L., Meyer, B.C., Rambonilaza, T., & W.A.H. Rossing Models, techniques and tools to explain and assess multifunctionality of agriculture. International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology (IJARGE), Volume 7,

231 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management GIS Based Land Use Modelling - LUCC Scenarios at the Regional Scale 基于地理信息系统的土地利用模式 地区尺度上的 LUCC 模式 Sylvia Herrmann and Karin Berkhoff Department of Environmental Planning, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany Abstract The objective of the Sino-German research project LILAC (Living Landscapes China) is the development of an integrated approach for land use planning in an ecologically fragile upland watershed located in South-West China. A central component of this approach is the development of a decision support tool based on different models. This model framework should enable the calculation of scenarios to show the different possible futures for the area. To reach this goal, intensive discussion about model interfaces is necessary. This paper describes the modelling framework developed in the LILAC project (NabanFrame), which integrates several disciplines (environmental planning, economy, ecology, and sociology). Further, the essential land use change model (CLUE Naban ) is explained in more detail. 摘要中德合作研究 生命 景观 中国 项目的目标是为中国西南生态脆弱的山地流域开发一个综合 性的土地利用规划措施 这项措施主要是开发一套基于不同模式的决策支持工具 这个模型框架 应该使情景分析的结果显示出该地区可能的未来发展趋势 为了达到此目的, 集中讨论模式交互 关系是必要的 本文阐述了在 生命 景观 中国 项目中运用的模式体系 ( 纳版体系 ), 此 体系将环境规划, 经济学, 生态学以及社会学多种学科相结合 另外, 本文也详尽阐述了基本的 土地使用变化模式 (CLUENaban) 1 Introduction Rapid economic growth and dramatic social changes have generated great impacts on the natural resources, ecosystems and livelihoods of indigenous communities, particularly in the ecologically fragile upland areas in the Nabanhe watershed, Xishuangbanna (Yunnan). Such a context emphasizes the importance of an integrated approach to land use planning. The LILAC (Living Landscapes China) project supports land use planning in the Nabanhe watershed by developing an interdisciplinary decision support tool. The objectives of LILAC are: 231

232 ERSEC conference proceeding Contribution to the conservation of cultural landscapes and their diversity Development of alternative, sustainable land use practices Development of an interdisciplinary decision making tool Integration of ecological, socio-cultural and economic models Provision of decision support for land use planning Based on an analysis of the land use/cover changes over the last decades, the sub-project LUCC of the LILAC project aims to assess the dynamics of these changes. Scenarios will be developed in the project, which follow the criteria of sustainability, by pursuing the integration of ecological as well as social and economic demands. Land use and land cover change are the result of many interacting processes. Studying the dynamics of these processes requires an understanding of its human and environmental driving factors and its mutual interactions. By describing the land use dynamics in a model, the integration of empirical data on the one side, and the connection to other models, is necessary. To develop an integrated procedure, different disciplinary models have to be coupled with the land use change modelling system. Thus, the land use change simulation can be combined with the description of biotic and abiotic effects as well as the social and economic consequences. This coupled system provides the basis for an integrated decision support tool. 2 Study Area: Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (Xishuangbanna) The study area of the LILAC project is the Nabanhe National Nature Reserve (NNNR). It is located in subtropical South-West China (Yunnan). The Nabanhe catchment (264 square kilometres) is situated in the autonomous district of Xishuangbanna, the nearest town being Jinghong city, 20 kilometres south-east of the catchment. Fig. 1 gives an overview of the location of the study area. (2) (1) (3) Figure 1: Location of the study area (NNNR) in South West China (references: (1) (2) ( Microsoft Corp 2002), (3) Defense Mapping Agency Aerospace Center, 1970) 232

233 3 The Modelling Framework NabanFrame Sustainable Land Use and Water Management A model for the distribution of future land use in the area (scenarios) is under development which consists of a rule framework guiding a random distribution algorithm. An initial land use map was classified from IKONOS satellite data (see Berkhoff et al., this volume). Several static and dynamic driving factors for land use allocation were defined, e. g., altitude, soil quality, distance to villages, population density, ecological status, and traditions of land use according to ethnic groups. Spatially explicit information is needed to integrate the driving factors into the land use change model. Interviews and field trips in the study area were done to evaluate the spatial effects of the driving factors. For the different land use types the area demand will be provided by the economic model for the simulation time span ( ). In a geographic information system (GIS), the data are pre-processed (see Berkhoff et al., this volume) and then integrated into the land use change model. The land use change model is only one model under the umbrella of the NabanFrame modelling framework. NabanFrame is built by the joint application of four models: A social model An ecological model An economic model A land use change model The LILAC modelling framework consists of three phases: a pre-processing phase, the land use allocation, and a post-processing phase. They are shown in Figure 2. Pre-Processing General data processing Land use classification Identification of demand Sociology Ecology Economy Environmental Planning Pre-Processing CLUE Naban Environmental Planning Post-Processing Evaluation of impact of modelled land use Sociology Ecology Economy Figure 2: Workflow within the NabanFrame modelling framework In the pre-processing phase, the general data preparation takes place. An important data input is land use in the starting year of the simulation (see Berkhoff et al., this volume). The central component of the NabanFrame modelling framework is land use allocation with the help of the land use change model CLUE Naban, which is based on the CLUE model (Veldkamp and Fresco, 1996, Verburg et al., 1999). 233

234 ERSEC conference proceeding 3.1 General design of the CLUE method CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) has been designed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors, combined with dynamic modelling of competition between land use types. The objective and also the strength of the CLUE model is the allocation of land use changes rather than modelling the quantity of change (Overmars, 2006). For regional studies, CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) (Verburg et al., 2003, Verburg et al., 2002) was developed. CLUE is subdivided in two modules: a non-spatial demand module and a spatially explicit allocation module. The demand is an external input which has to be delivered to the CLUE model by an economic model (as mentioned before). Several modules within CLUE influenced land use allocation are: Spatial policies and restrictions Land use type specific conversion settings Location characteristics Land use requirements (demand) (Verburg 2006, 2007) In Figure 3 these model parts are illustrated. Figure 3: Modules of the CLUE model (Verburg, 2007) Figure 4 shows how the modules of the general CLUE model are put into the context of the LILAC modelling framework, NabanFrame. In the LILAC project, the land use 234

235 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management change model serves as the central model which integrates input coming from the economic, ecological, and the social model. The application of CLUE within the NabanFrame modelling framework is called CLUE Naban. Pre-Processing Coordination Land use map (Landsat, SPOT, IKONOS) Environm. Planning Land claims for other non-agr. land use types Land claims for nature Land claims for agricultural land and forest Land use types Paddy rice Farmland Forest Rubber Bamboo Grassland Water Streambank Cloud shadow/ not classified Neighbourhood settings Location factors -Elevation - Slope - Soil quality - Distance to villages - Distance to market - Population density - Precipitation - Frost risk - Ecological status - Tradition of land use acc. to ethnic group - Location suitability From regression Land allocation algorithm Location specific preference addition Sociology Ecology Economy Environm. Planning Household type specific spatial restrictions for land use change Sociology Ecology Economy Conversion settings - Autonomous change - Min/Max number of years - Specific locations with differing conversion settings - No rubber > 1200 m Spatial policies Analysis of traditional land use sequences Protected habitat areas Specific land use conversion trajectories Post-Processing Evaluation of simulated land use maps, impact on Farm types Analysis of historic land conversions Analysis of land use sequences applied currently Sociology Ecology Economy Sociology Ecology Economy Social factors Ecology/ biodiversity Economy Figure 4: The NabanFrame modelling framework, tasks coloured according to disciplines (grey: sociology, green: ecology, yellow: economy, blue: environmental planning) The NabanFrame modelling process is divided into three parts, as mentioned before: Pre-Processing Land allocation in CLUE Naban Post-Processing These three parts can also be identified from Figure 4. In the pre-processing phase (upper left box), the land use types are classified from satellite imagery. Further, the disciplines have to agree on land use requirements for every land use type. The preprocessing phase has been described in Berkhoff et al. (this volume). In the land allocation phase (central part of Figure 4), CLUE Naban is run with input from all other disciplines and their models. Two elements of the land use change model have to be filled in with information from the other disciplines, in particular, these are: Location factors Conversion settings (land use type specific) 3.2 Location factors These are factors that have a direct impact on land use allocation, i.e., they form the 235

236 ERSEC conference proceeding decision framework on why to allocate a certain land use type at a certain place. The influence of each location factor is evaluated using logistic regression. The underlying assumption is that land use conversions are expected to take place at locations with the highest suitability for the specific land use type at that moment in time. Location factors can be physical characteristics of the study area (e.g., elevation, soil quality, precipitation), but also socio-economic characteristics (e.g., ethnicity, distance to market, rate of illiteracy). They can either be stable (like the physical characteristics) or dynamic (e.g., population density). If location characteristics cannot be assigned to locations directly, it is possible to represent them by accessibility measures (Verburg et al., 2004). These indicate the position of a location relative to important facilities (e.g., a rubber factory). The suitability of a location is calculated as follows (Verburg et al., 2004). with R X 1,2,... a k ; b k R ki = a k X 1i + b k X 2i +... (Eq.1) preference to devote location i to land use type k biophysical or socio-economical characteristics of location i relative impact of the characteristics on the preference for land use type k A statistical model can be developed as a binomial logit model of two choices (conversion of location i into land use type k or not). The preference is assumed to be the underlying response of this choice. However, it cannot be observed or measured directly and has therefore to be calculated as a probability (Verburg et al., 2004). This method is similar to econometric analysis of land use change. In econometric studies the assumed behaviour is profit maximization, which limits the location characteristics to (agricultural) economic factors. In CLUE it is assumed that locations are devoted to the land use type with the highest suitability. Suitability includes the monetary profit, but can also include cultural and other factors that lead to deviations from (economic) rational behaviour in land allocation. This assumption makes it possible to include a wide variety of location characteristics in the model. In the study area, location factors of land use change are physical factors, but also socio-economic ones (which have been evaluated in interviews with farmers). They include: Elevation Slope Soil quality Distance to villages Distance to road Distance to market 236

237 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Population density Precipitation Frost risk Ecological status Tradition of land use according to the ethnic group 3.3 Conversion settings Conversion settings in CLUE Naban are defined with the help of two parameter sets: conversion elasticities and land use transition sequences. Conversion elasticities describe if a certain land use type can be transformed into another one easily or only with much effort. Land use transition sequences are a set of rules determining possible land use conversions. Hereby, temporal and spatial constraints can be included, as can be seen from Figure 5. succession land abandonment succession Field Semi-natural land Nature Forest logging After 30 years Rubber only <1200 m Figure 5: Exemplary land use transition sequence in the NNNR Figure 5 shows an exemplary land use transition sequence. The analysis of sequences is done in the LILAC project through a cooperation of all disciplines. For the integration of the transition sequences into CLUE Naban, it is necessary to translate them into a conversion matrix. Location factors and land use type specific conversion settings are only two examples of how the different disciplines are integrated within NabanFrame. In the land allocation phase, the other parameters of CLUE Naban also have to be defined (see Figure 4). When all information is collected the land allocation process can start. CLUE Naban calculates, with discrete time steps, the most likely changes in land use given the previously described restrictions and suitabilities. 237

238 ERSEC conference proceeding Finally, in the post-processing phase of NabanFrame, the resulting land use maps (one for the status quo, others for the scenarios) are evaluated. The evaluation is done from the point of view of sociology, economy, and ecology using the disciplinary models. 4 The First Results of the Model Framework Building Process As described by Berkhoff et al. (this volume), a common data base has been set up for the LILAC project. Its central data set is a detailed land use map of the reference year Now, as the basic data base has been established, the integration of data into CLUE Naban started. It will be completed with the results of the field studies and interviews done by the other disciplines. For the integration of data into CLUE Naban, it was necessary to discuss common parameters and interfaces of all models. Farm types described by the agro-economic model will be used by the social model as well. After the spatial delineation of these farm types in the research area CLUE Naban can use these types for the land use allocation. This is especially important for the scenarios as it can be expected that a highly intensive farm type will respond differently to a change of frame conditions than an extensive farm type does. The economic model will calculate these changes and the social model will describe the consequent social reactions. By combining management changes of crop production assumed by the economic model with the issues of the ecological model, another link will be created among the different models. All these data have to include spatial references to be considered in the land use allocation model. Momentarily, the disciplinary models are set up, already considering model interfaces, as described. A first version of the overall modelling framework NabanFrame is intended to be finished by mid Value of the Interdisciplinary Approach In section 4, it was described that model interfaces were discussed intensely with regard to the integrated modelling framework. Cooperation between disciplines increased considerably, also concerning joint data collection. Since it was discovered that the data collected in the first field survey (March to July 2008) are not sufficient to describe land use change processes adequately, another field survey will start in October The joint data collection of the sociology, the economy, and the ecology discipline will fill the still existing knowledge gaps. Data quality is ensured by providing metadata, and by using a common reference system for villages and households. The interdisciplinary approach of the LILAC project needs intensive discussion between the disciplines, but in fact it has the advantage that land use change can be modelled in 238

239 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management an appropriate way. Further, the knowledge of stakeholders is integrated in the modelling process to keep track of the practical applicability of the modelling exercise. References 1. Berkhoff, K, Cotter, M, Herrmann, S, & Sauerborn, J (2008): Use of remote sensing data as basic information for applied land use change modelling. This volume. 2. Defense Mapping Agency Aerospace Center 1970: Tactical Pilot Tage Chart, St. Louis, Missouri (revised 1987). 3. Overmars, K 2006 Linking process and pattern of land use change - illustrated with a case study in San Mariano, Isabela, Philippines. Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences. Leiden University. 4. Veldkamp, A & Fresco, L O 1996 CLUE: A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects. Ecological Modelling Verburg, P H, de Groot, W T & Veldkamp, A 2003 Methodology for Multi-Scale Land-Use Change Modelling: Concepts and Challenges in Dolman, A J, Verhagen, A & Rovers, C A eds Global Environmental Change and Land Use. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, Boston, London. 6. Verburg, P H, de Koning, G H J, Kok, K, Veldkamp, A & Bouma, J 1999 A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecological Modelling Verburg, P H, Overmars, K P & Witte, N 2004 Accessibility and land-use patterns at the forest fringe in the northeastern part of the Philippines. Geographical Journal Verburg, P H, Soepboer, W, Veldkamp, A, Limpiada, R, Espaldon, V & Mastura, S S A 2002 Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S model. Environmental Management Verburg, P 2006 CLUE-S Version Dyna-CLUE 2.0. Wageningen, the Netherlands. 10. Verburg, P 2007 The CLUE-S model - Tutorial CLUE-S (version 2.4) and DYNA-CLUE (version 2). Wageningen University. ( accessed ) 239

240 ERSEC conference proceeding Instruments for Comprehensive Land Use Planning and River Basin Management 综合性土地利用规划和流域管理手段 Mariele Evers Institute for Environmental Strategies, Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Germany Abstract Integrated river basin management (IRBM) includes the water quality aspects but also flood plain and flood risk management as important elements of IRBM. On the other side land use and land use planning, respectively have a great importance on a sustainable river basin management. However, water management and land use planning are in generally separated in planning procedures and decision making processes. Even water quality and flood risk issues are often handled by different authorities. To identify interrelated issues, synergies and common goals information systems and simulation tools can be helpful. This type of software should provide functionalities to bring together different data and information with different geographic scopes, qualities, dimensions, et cetera. Moreover the interfacing of different models plays a central role. But not only simulation of natural systems is important. Stakeholder involvement and public participation are also essential. For decision making processes, technologies like Planning or Decision Support Systems (PSS/DSS) are important and can be very helpful. But for large-scale and complex catchment based systems, a series of frontiers as for example a good data base, administrative boundaries, data availability/access, standards of methodologies, communication (e.g., between water and environmental managers) exist. Development of DSS is usually time and money-consuming. So it is crucial to identify strategies and synergies to minimize costs and optimize benefits. Requirements for management tools such as interface standards, geo data infrastructure, flexible data management, cause-and-effect scenarios, and functionalities for communication have to be defined. Furthermore a planning instrument called catchment development plan with respect to geodata and DSS functionalities which integrates water management and land use planning aspects is presented in this paper. 摘要综合性流域管理 (IRBM) 除了包括水质方面的内容, 泛滥平原个洪水风险也是其重要组成部分 另一方面, 土地使用和土地利用规划对可持续性流域管理也非常重要 然而, 在规划制定 240

241 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 和决策过程中, 水资源管理和土地利用规划通常是相互分离的 甚至水质和洪水风险的问题也经常分属不同部门管理 协合作用和共同目标信息系统及模拟工具都有助于识别相关问题 这些软件为不同区域 质量 尺度的不同数据和信息的整合提供了处理功能 而且, 不同模型的交互作用起到了主要作用 不仅仅自然系统的模拟是重要的, 同样, 利益相关者的介入和公众参与也很重要 在决策过程中, 像计划支持系统 (PSS) 或者决策支持系统 (DSS) 的技术也很重要, 并且也很有帮助 但对于基于系统的大尺度和复杂的流域来说, 好的数据库 管理边界 数据实用性和可用性, 方法的标准 沟通 ( 例如水资源管理和环境管理之间的沟通 ) 等都存在一系列的尚待开发的新领域 DSS 的发展往往耗时长久和耗资巨大 因此, 识别策略和协作, 以便花费最低, 利益最大化是很关键的 管理工具的必要条件, 如边界标准 地理数据基础设施 数据管理的灵活性 因果模式和沟通的功能都应详细说明 此外, 本文也就整合水资源管理和土地利用规划的地理信息和决策支持系统的功能性描述了一种叫做 流域发展划 的规划工具 1 Introduction Integrated river basin management (IRBM) can be seen as the management of surface and groundwater in the hydrological basin scale in terms of quantity, quality and ecological means concerning the needs and usage of the community in a multi-disciplinary perspective. Against this background it is not only important to include the water quality aspects but also flood plain and flood risk management as important elements of IRBM. Regarding the increase of extreme flood events and flood damage during the last decades it became obvious that an integrated approach is crucial in flood protection. In the complex field of integrated flood management many issues such as technical measures, spatial management, retrofitting, raising risk awareness as well as environmental and land use management have to be incorporated. Water related biotopes and especially flood plains are extremely important and rich ecosystems with a huge variety of species and functionalities. Beside these issues, considering the quality of surface water and groundwater is also a vital topic which is another side of the same coin. All aspects are greatly interrelated. Despite these conceptual formulations, the term IRBM is more precisely defined by the Global Water Partnership (GWP) as attempting to consolidate the two broad conceptual requirements of integration and sustainability, and provide a comprehensive scope for IRBM, which was summarized as, a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems (GWP/TAC 2000). So IRBM can be seen as a complex concept which embodies the integration of natural and human systems, or we can say the physical and societal worlds. Within the natural 241

242 ERSEC conference proceeding system, integration is sought between freshwater and coastal zone, land and water, surface water and groundwater, water quantity and quality, and upstream and downstream. Similarly in the human system, integration is required between demand and supply, across various water use sectors, among various stakeholders and in numerous socioeconomic considerations (Bandaragoda 2002). Following this broad definition the complexity of IRBM becomes more than obvious. So we have to raise the question of how an appropriate approach can be realised. For these complex issues such as IRBM technologies are very helpful, which is applied on an interdisciplinary basis to understand the system s behaviour and develop appropriate strategies and cooperative action programmes in response. Thus kinds of socio-technical instrument as Decision Support Systems (DSS) are required. This paper will discuss requirements for DSS to support a comprehensive approach in IRBM within the following areas as examples of the natural and the human systems and amongst the human system, the legal system in particular. a) Fresh water quality and quantity b) Flood risk management c) Flood plain management and as part of the human system we can consider e.g. d) Stakeholder involvement and public participation IRBM is a challenge for cooperation, integration and support. As is known, water is rapidly emerging as a serious limitation on meeting human needs while protecting the environment. Cooperation among all stakeholders at all organizational levels is required to reach agreement on integrated management plans, as well as appropriate allocation strategies for available resource. Balancing water resources, including issues such as increasing use compared to the availability or deterioration of water quality is becoming increasingly complex and diverse. Appropriate decision making requires specific knowledge from both technical and non-technical perspectives (Abbott 2005). These complexities create the need to understand and comprehend the more detailed technical components, as well as broader managerial and societal issues, thereby requiring efficient integration of various disciplines, sectors, countries, and societies (Somlyódy et al. 1995). Socio-economic issues should be mentioned here as an extra issue in the human system which has to be recognised but which is not further discussed in this context The framework of management processes of the different elements of IRBM are mainly based on legal regulations (acts, environmental standards, conventions, et cetera) or other environmental or other goals (e.g., the concept of sustainable regional 242

243 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management development). For IRBM purposes, numerous regulations emerged during the last years. However, integration remains a difficult issue. A number of gaps and barriers still need to be resolved. 2 Management Objectives and Legal Instruments of IRBM 2.1 The natural system As described earlier, relevant issues are, amongst others, the quality and quantity of water, the decline of water-related ecosystems and flood risk management. One crucial problem in most European countries is that there are too many actors responsible for and involved in water management. The jurisdiction over water is often very fragmented and there is not always a single institution ensuring coordination between the different managing agencies. Water quality and quantity management is mainly the issue for the water management agencies. The coordination with agriculture and nature conservation actors is quite poor. Wetlands management is considered as a nature conservation issue. This leads to uncoordinated actions in managing wetlands and missed opportunities for fully exploiting their positive role in water management. National wetland restoration policies are almost non-existent, although the international framework should lead to a national wetland protection policy (WWF 2003). For flood risk management, usually water management agencies are again responsible for water quality and quantity. Although very often another department is concerned with this issue and coordination and collaboration between them often is not sufficiently institutionalised but depends on personal contacts. 2.2 The human system For integration of the societal aspects of IRBM, public participation is a crucial element which has to be considered. Public participation in water management is rather poor in Europe, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe (UNEP 2005). The most critical aspects of public participation are the lack of pro-active information provisions to nongovernmental stakeholders and the quality of the means to enable the active involvement of interested parties in decision-making processes. Stakeholders often lack specialized knowledge and human capacity to get involved in decision-making for water management measures. It is difficult for non-governmental water stakeholders to contribute to and influence the decision-making process because the issuing of consultation documents and the participation of interested parties often take place only towards the end of the process. There is often low transparency for specific projects. 243

244 ERSEC conference proceeding Participation is more and more demanded by political and societal concepts for sustainable development. Participation aspects are integrated as a central part or declaration of legal frameworks as the Aarhus convention or Water Framework Directive of the European Union. 2.3 The legal system An increasing number of legal frameworks and guidance both on international and nation levels came into force during the last years. Table 1 shows an exemplary overview about legal frameworks and objectives in IRBM concerning water quality and quantity, flood risk management and flood plain management in Europe. All these jurisdictions are not implicitly conflictive but the interlinkages can be considered as little. Water quality and wetlands are considered separately. Water quality and flood risk management tends to be coordinated by the new European directive which is planned to be agreed upon in The designed flood risk management plans which are one basic element in the designed Directive should include not only water management aspects, but also spatial planning, nature conservation and other spatial and land use relevant issues. But we have to wait for the final wording of the law to critique it finally. Flood risk management and floodplain management are handled more or less as parallel. A small approach is done with the German Act for preventive flood management. With an instrument such as the flood risk plans it could be possible to include aspects of flood plain restorations and dike shifting. But this is not formulated explicitly, thus its realisation will depend on the respective planning authorities. Rather all biotope types of flood plains are protected by laws like the FFH Directive and national nature protection acts. But what is missing is a comprehensive and mid- or long-term strategy for sustainable protection and development. For this paradigm a catchment based approach is crucial. The only catchment based approach is demanded by the WFD concerning water quality and quantity. The draft of the flood directive for flood risk management will be abutted along this methodology and time structure (EC 2006). Only rarely we can consider established organisations for IRBM in Europe. In general it is organised along administrative boundaries. With WFD the first catchment based organisation structure has been established. Theoretically these are the right structures to coordinate IRBM. The future will tell whether they have enough competences to achieve a successful collaboration. Despite these structures, some transnational River Basin Organisations exist. They try to coordinate actions and measures in the catchment basin but very often they have not enough competence for effective coordinated management. 244

245 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Water quality and quantity Flood risk management Flood plain management Table 1: Legal frameworks and objectives in IRBM (exemplary) Legal frameworks - EC Water Framework Directive, - National standards - EC Directive for flood risk management (draft), - German Act for mitigation of flood risk - Guidelines - RAMSAR Convention, - NATURA 2000 Directive, - National acts (e.g. Germany: BNatSchG) General target Good status of water bodies Minimizing of flood risk Protection and development of wetlands and its biodiversity Environmental objective Good ecological status of surface waters (includes biological, hydro-morphological and chemical status) Good status of groundwater (includes quantitative and chemical) raise retention potential Endangered biotopes Endangered species Environmental standards - e.g. reference status of river type - e.g. max 50 mg /l N Flood probability - HQ 100 or 1,0 % - HQ 1000 or 0,1 % - Protection of FFH Appendix species and biotopes - e.g. Germany: BNatSchG 20c - Red lists Another facet of IRBM is that synergies in data management are poor despite the fact that it would be more than useful to match up a common data pool. Since implementation of the WFD and its GIS guidance a big step has been taken towards common standards and exchange of geographical data. But many other steps can still be done. 3 The Role of Decision Support Systems (DSS) in IRBM Bringing together the natural and the human system is one crucial aspect of IRBM. However, decision making in a river basin context is a complex process due to the many stakeholders involved, each with different interests, objectives, evaluation criteria, information needs and competency. Cooperation and sharing of information and ideas might enhance the harmonization of water use and allocation. Sharing models and analytical methods, and the mutual exchange of information can be an appropriate basis for co-operation in research and analysis. Computer based systems for decision making processes are specially developed to support this multifaceted approach. A wide range of possible DSS definitions and core functionalities exist. Hahn & Engelen (2000) distinguish two types of computer-based DSS: 1. Data-oriented DSS are primarily concerned with retrieval, analysis and presentation of data. 2. Model-oriented DSS include activities such as simulation, goal seeking and optimization. 245

246 ERSEC conference proceeding Generally a DSS consists of a data base, GIS and other tools or services and the user interface with all the central functionalities, and often models are included. It is a striking fact that many DSS exist but only a few are really taken into use in practice, or used as intended. The reasons are very often not because the technical realisation is not good enough but because the needs of (potential) users were not met adequately. During recent years some studies were undertaken to find out reasons for this phenomenon. In the following, the analysis of three different studies and their key results and messages will be revealed and discussed. With a synopsis and analysis of two workshops and one evaluation about factors of success and failure for DSS, four main reasons for failed development have been worked out (Hare 2004, FEEM 2005, and Uran 2002): 1. Adaptation to user- required functionalities 2. User interface 3. Transparency The most important problem to overcome is to bridge the gap between the developers and the users. Therefore, the phase of requirement elicitation has to be done thoroughly. As potential DSS users, several persons and institutions can be identified. However, mainly these organisations which deal on the catchment level as river basin organisation, water boards or international river commissions may be particularly interested to develop and use a DSS for the complex management of river basins. A striking fact is that the institutional structure has to fit to the requirement for a comprehensive management (with the help of a DSS) or vice versa. Otherwise an efficient use of the DSS can not be guaranteed. The importance of including the future DSS users in the development process has to be emphasised, and for a successful development and implementation, a new structure of DSS is proposed here. The DSS can be seen as a socio-technical instrument with three main components: 1. the interface which includes the user interface and the user specific information, structure and processing 2. the technical component with database, knowledge base, models, GIS, and other possible tools 3. the social component which consists of the interdisciplinary developer team that works out DSS requirements in a discourse The DSS for IRBM can be understood as a sociotechnical instrument for analysing, visualising and collaboration for a better understanding and handling of complex system for a coherent and transparent management process. 246

247 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 4 Requirements for a DSS In this paper not all requirements for IRBM DSS which should to be regarded can be revealed. The focus here is on two issues: the aspect of participation in IRBM and technical support for it and key functionalities for DSS. 4.1 Participation First of all we have to consider that no blueprint for excellent or appropriate public participation exists. Thinking about a reasonable way of pp covers a variety of tasks: Learning how to participate or to organise participation, developing new management styles and attitudes, learning about the river basin to be managed, building up trust between participants, representing and sharing perspectives, developing new partnerships, and social learning. Using several sources (Abbott 2001), Kleinhückelkotten 2002, Baumann et al. 2005, Initiative eparticipation (2005), EU Water directors (2003), von Haaren et al. (2005), Selle & Rösener (2003) and Evers (2008) some general requirements, which are certainly not all-embracing, can be stated: Firstly a change of paradigm has to take place: Decision makers have to change their role from decision maker to knowledge provider to act as moderators between experts and general population as the stakeholders. This is the most important and most difficult point. The communication structure and strategy is crucial in pp; e.g., a multi-channel communication, a mutuality with and between stakeholders and address of different milieus, groups and different communication measures tailored for individual milieus Possibility for Citizens to engage themselves is context dependent and is preferably informal /anonymous if desired. Transparency: information about who is involved, how the comments are used, and what are the decision structures are important. Gain new target groups by new media (young people, business people, people living in the countryside). Using Internet and e-participation tools should be used with, e.g., always actual information which is permanent accessible, information which gives profound and clear visualisation, provision of interactivity and possible feedback and the possibility of cross-linking and dialogue of the stakeholders. Eventually a tight spot exists in the phenomena that public participation is most asked and reasonable on the local level where discussions are undertaken and measures agreed upon and impacts are perceived, but information or model results are often too abstract 247

248 ERSEC conference proceeding or imprecise for adapting to the local scale. We can argue that anyway general information can be interesting and appreciated to regard the whole complex. But when it comes to local decisions, a high level of information or aggregation of information can produce scepticism on local level. This experience is described by evaluation of participatory modelling projects in Sweden (Jonsson & Alkan-Olsson 2005). A DSS for IRBM has to provide at least information and provides possibilities for consultations. An active involvement of stakeholders should be possible as well. Experiences observed in the urban and city planning (Biester, Holland-Cunz, Sauer 1994; Fraser 1997; Lettow et al. 2005) and in the water management field (Abbott 2000) show the importance and relevance of a gender sensitive approach. It is to advocate that functionalities for shared decision making are implemented. This is especially important for DSS tailored for the local level where concrete measures have to be discussed and negotiated. For generic DSS this option seems to be not as important as for the local level. 4.2 System requirement specification An important step to be undertaken for a thorough DSS development and construction is the formulation of system requirement specification (SRS). As an appropriate structure the formulating the guidelines for DSS development the composition of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) recommendations practice for software requirements specification (IEEE 1998) seems to be adequate for DSS. The following issues are proposed as SRS structure: a)functionality. What is the software supposed to do? b)external interfaces. How does the software interact with people, the systems hardware, other hardware, and other software? c)performance. What is the speed, availability, response time, recovery time of various software functions, etc.? d)attributes. What is the portability, correctness, maintainability, security, etc. considerations? e)design constraints imposed on an implementation. Are there any required standards in effect, implementation language, policies for database integrity, resource limits, operating environment(s) etc? In this paper only one issue shall be described in more detail. Several studies were undertaken by the author with almost 200 people from different working fields of IRBM. These people came from five countries in the North Sea region. In the time period from different workshops with international and interdisciplinary 248

249 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management groups, questionnaires, interviews, evaluation of a DSS prototype were conducted for identifying general requirements for DSS in IRBM (Evers 2008). Some aspects of the first requirement issue, the functionalities, will be described here. 4.3 Set of general DSS requirements - functionalities a) Compilation of data, information and knowledge with easy and quick access. This means issues like: compilation of data in a central data base which is regularly updated with easy, free and fast access make available all relevant information on various aspects and the best available current knowledge data / information for identification of pressures - state impacts - response showing missing information and gaps showing information and special analyses with maps with explanations b) Support of the planning/decision-making process. This includes following steps typical for decision making processes: problem definition (problem identification, seeking/defining objectives/goals, identifying knowledge required, identifying possible bottlenecks, defining evaluation criteria) developments of what-if scenarios including the ranking of scenarios development of alternatives (search for ready-made alternatives, screen readymade alternatives, developing individual alternatives, showing ways to meet goals) effects (e.g., simulating and or estimating effects of remaining alternatives, presentation of effects) evaluation (e.g., concernment analysis, evaluating alternatives according to a set of criteria, visualisation results of evaluation, identify synergies between different measures) operational management (provides guidance through the planning process, provides a logical structural approach which ensures that key stages are not omitted) c) Handling of complexity/better understanding/future perspectives combining information and showing complex mid- and long-term interrelations visualisation of scenarios, measures and alternative options with maps, graphs, tables etc. users can learn from other examples and new information (info boxes, data base about good practice examples, measure pool) 249

250 ERSEC conference proceeding make possible a link/exchange between catchment and sub-catchment integrate a interactive learning tool provide library with information about the system d) Communication/participation /explanation/justification give easy and structured access to all relevant information including communication platform (chat rooms, transactional functionalities.) storing of local and generated knowledge transparency of information and process supply of tools for stakeholder involvement setup of a platform for support and discussion possibility to give feedback (or judge) to stated problems, planned measures etc. (discourse management ) including a negotiation tool 5 Catchment-related development plans A main problem in working on catchment areas is the scale of delimitation of catchment areas. Catchments areas are defined as rivers from the source to the river mouth with its catchment basin. These catchments are covering many hundreds and thousands of square kilometres. Working on this scale is not possible with the aims and measures intended by the proposed development plans, but there are still organisations working on it (such as the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine). Their aim is to coordinate measures of water management whereas the catchment-related development plan shall achieve an integration of both catchment-related and spatial planning interests for one area. Thus it is necessary to work on a much more detailed scale, such as subcatchment areas and even a defined settlement area. To make sure that both scales, with detailed and less detailed information and measures can be covered, it is useful to create a multi-level plan. One plan should be established on a regional level to keep an overview and to coordinate all measures in a subcatchment area. This plan will respond to the existing German law and can respond to the needs of the Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks. The regional catchment-related development plan should be elaborated for a subcatchment area. According to the Floods Directive it should comprise the following information: Floods with a high probability (likely return period, once in every 10 years); blue zones Floods with a medium probability (likely return period, once in every 100 years); blue lines across the rivers) Floods with a low probability (extreme events); (violet lines across the river) 250

251 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management According to German law Zones for conservation or defining new water retention areas (yellow lines) Water retention areas protected by German federal planning law (green areas) Figure 2: Example for a regional catchment-related development plan Furthermore it could involve following measures, which could be either developed only for the catchment-related development plan or could be generated by other (digital) information, for instance measures for restoration of rivers due to planned measures because of environmental impact assessment, eco-accounts, or river development plans: Limitations for further development Main areas for reduction of sealing Decentralised infiltration of surface water Flood appropriated constructions / measures for retrofitting Restoration of flood retention areas (flood plains, oxbows, etc.) Restoration of rivers to raise the flood retention potential Creation of new retention areas (like polder) Land use measures for raising retention potential (land use patterns, plough-less agriculture, etc.) As information in analogue plans like the described catchment-related development plan needs to be permanently updated, computer based techniques are eligible and dynamic to gather and analyse the numerous data and to keep the plan up to date. Decision Support Systems are especially suitable for providing these functions. The early involvement of 251

252 ERSEC conference proceeding multidisciplinary water, spatial and city planners into the conception process of a DSS revealed first and foremost the need of access to interdisciplinary data complemented by hydrologic data and the easy access to them and evaluation of them by DSS techniques. Additionally a list of all required and desired data and information was questioned. The main objective of a computer based DSS is to offer analysis, communication, management and learning functions to the user. These can be worked out by a dataoriented or model-oriented DSS. It is common to both that there is a user interface, which aids the planner, to solve certain questions in an easy way. As a matter of fact, the demands in urban and rural regions differ. Flooding in densely populated areas causes higher and different damage than rural and mainly agricultural areas. Conflicts of aims and interests concerning land use are also higher in urban areas which have to be taken into account and assessed by planners. It applies to both kinds of regions that a flood related DSS needs to inform about flooding events at certain return periods, extreme events, damage/risk maps, areas in danger of flooding in case flood protection measures fail. Furthermore these data are to be opposed to spatial data about land use, land owner, building, and nature conservation and especially to the demands of the WFD. As well as for the model feeding data, there has to be an infrastructure which provides and exchanges all the needed information. For that reason in an EU project called FLOWS, which took place inter alia in Hamburg and Lower Saxony, the spatial data infrastructure (SDI) were improved by analysing existing services and extending these to the FLOWS- DSS relevant applications and data. For the last years spatial data infrastructures are being developed by all administrative levels just to mention the EU-initiative INSPIRE, the Bundes initiative IMAGI to build up the Spatial Data Infrastructure Germany (GDI-DE), SDIs on federal state level, as well as for example the inter federal state SDI Metropolregion Hamburg (MRH) which includes the FLOWS Germany investigation sites. Especially the MRH was extended through the FLOWS projects which show innovative ways of the substantiating philosophy of using Open GIS techniques. Thus, the DSS in Hamburg will use these available data and will be specified for the end user (town planner) in the Hamburg administration. The DSS Planning Client is able to show changes in the water run-off situation after a simulation of constructing new buildings or flood defence measures in an investigation site. It is able to include geodata by web mapping or web feature services in model-based DSS for simulations. In the case of this DSS flood related information, it was pre-calculated in FLOWS 252

253 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management project as for example flood events at certain recurrent periods, areas endangered by flooding in case of flood defence failure but also data about land use and land management. The infrastructure can be used to manage flood plains but also catchment areas and to set up catchment-related development plans. With this concept a clear interface between the planning instrument of a catchmentrelated development plan for a whole catchment and the supporting tools like DSS and Planer Client was created. Both can be used on its own as well. But together an innovative, appropriate and dynamic system for implementation of flood related information in spatial planning processes can be delivered. 6 Conclusions IRBM is a broad and complex field which combines not only the elements of natural systems but also the human system. In general, Decision Support Systems can assist the integrated managing approach of IRBM but most of the developed systems are not used in practice or by whom it was designed for. Many DSS projects deal only with designing the natural world, which is often complex enough, but neglect the real user demands. Until now no standards exist that ensure that DSS have certain qualities and that missing functionalities would be eliminated. Three aspects shall be stressed to improve this situation: coordination of management objectives, regarding minimum user requirements for DSS development, and collaborated research and development work to generate more synergies in DSS development. Various legal frameworks have to be considered to meet the objectives of integrated water resources management as described in this article. It would be very helpful to coordinate these management fields on catchment levels. The clearer the management objectives are, the easier the implementation in a DSS can be realised. More emphasis must be given to optimize the user interface and certain users requirements of DSS. Several evaluations were carried out to find out some key issues which have to be regarded by developing DSS for IRBM. One key issue which is trivial but rarely respected is to bridge the gap between users purposes and the developers. A close link between the developers and the users and especially an interdisciplinary development and continuous evaluation of the system together with users is stated as extraordinarily important. For emphasizing this issue a new DSS structure as a sociotechnical instrument is proposed. Two important issues of requirements are presented: facilities for participation and DSS 253

254 ERSEC conference proceeding functionalities. Because of the multi-purpose demands of integrating water, environment and society, establishment of a network centred, modular structured system might be a solution for more cooperation and synergies in developing DSS. The concept of a catchment-related development plan delivers an instrument for integrated flood management for the whole river basin. This comprehensive approach supports an integrated river basin management with coordinated measures, identifies synergies and supports labour and cost efficiency. It combines the newest computer tools for analysing and visualising with a sustainable data management concept. Furthermore, the latest national and international/european jurisdictions are considered and integrated which helps to meet its objectives in a sophisticated way. It seems to be a sustainable approach because the tools are already implemented in relevant agencies. References 1. ABBOTT M. B. The democratisation of decision-making processes in the water sector I. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 03.1, IWA Publishing ABBOTT, M.B.: The water knowledge initiative ABBOTT, M.B.: The gender issue in hydroinformatics, or Orpheus in the Underworld. Journal of Hydroinformatics 2 (2000) ALKAN Olsson J. and ANDERSSON L.: Possibilities and problems with the use of hydrological models as a communication tool in water management, International Journal of Water Resource Management (special issue /WARM/ Advances in Global Change Research), BANDARAGODA, D. J.: Water-land linkages: A relatively neglected issue in integrated water resources management. Paper presented at the SaciWATERs workshop on IRBM in South Asia: Global Theory, Emerging Practice and Local Needs held in Colombo, Sri Lanka (20-22 December 2002). 6. BAUMANN F., DETLEFSEN M., IVERSEN S., and L. VOGELSANG: Neue Tendenzen bei der Bürgerbeteiligung in Deutschland Veränderte Rahmenbedingungen, Praktiken und deren Auswirkungen, BIESTER, E., HOLLAND-CUNZ, B., SAUER, B. (Hg.): Demokratie oder Androkratie? Theorie und Praxis demokratischer Herrschaft in der feministischen Diskussion. Frankfurt/New York: Campus, EUROPEAN COMMISSION: An EU policy on flood risk management. flood_risk/index.htm, EUROPEAN COMMISSION: "Directive 2000/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for the Community action in the field of water policy" - The EU Water Framework Directive - integrated river basin management for Europe, EUROPEAN COMMISSION: Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks 11. EVERS, M.: Decision Support Systems in Integrated River Basin Management - 254

255 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Requirements for appropriate tools and structures for a comprehensive planning approach. Shaker Verlag, ISBN , EVERS, M., KRAUSE, K.-U., TRESSL, S.: A new approach towards flood concerned spatial planning: Planning and technical instruments for integrated planning and management, FEEM: Results of the International Workshop on Success and failure of DSS for integrated water resources management. Venice, Italy, 6-7 October FRASER, N.: Die halbierte Gerechtigkeit. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main, GEERTMAN, S. & Stillwell, J.: Planning Support in Practise. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Germany, GWP/TAC (Global Water Partnership, Technical Advisory Committee). Integrated water resources management. TAC Background Paper No. 4. Stockholm: GWP, HAAREN, von, Chr., B. OPPERMANN, K.-I. FRIESE, R. HACHMANN, J. MEIFORTH, A. NEUMANN, S. TIEDTKE, B. WARREN-KRETZSCHMAR, F.-E. WOLTER: Interaktiver Landschaftsplan Konigslutter am Elm. Ergebnisse aus dem E+E-Vorhaben Interaktiver Landschaftsplan Konigslutter am Elm' des Bundesamtes für Naturschutz. Naturschutz und Biologische VielfaltHeft 24, HAHN, B. and ENGELEN, G.: Decision Support Systems (DSS) for river basin management. International Workshop 6 April 2000, Koblenz, Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz-Berlin, HARE, M.: The use of Models to Support the Participatory Elements of the EU Water Framework Directive: Creating a dialogue between Policy Makers and Model Makers, IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers ): Recommended practice for software requirements specifications, IEEE Std , INITIATIVE E-PARTICIPATION: Elektronische Bürgerbeteiligung in deutschen Grpßstädten. Studie 2005: KLEINHÜCKELKOTTEN, S., H.-P. NEITZKE and B. SCHLUßMEIER: Nachhaltigkeit kommunizieren Bürger aktivieren; Soziale Milieus als Zielgruppe in der lokalen Agenda 21-Arbeit. Aktions- und Kommunikationshandbuch. Hannover: ECOLOG-Institut, LETTOW, S., MANZ, U., SARKOWSKY, K. (Hg.) (2005): Öffentlichkeiten und Geschlechterverhältnisse. Erfahrungen, Politiken, Subjekte. Ulrike Helmer Verlag, Königstein/Taunus. 24. SAVENIJE, H. G.; and VAN DER ZAAG, P.: The management of shared river basins: focus on Development, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Hague Revised and published as Conceptual framework for the management of shared river basins; with special reference to SADC and EU, in Water Policy, Vol. 2, Nos. 1-2, The Hague: Elsevier Science Ltd., SELLE, K. and B. RÖSENER: Dokumentation und Auswertung des Werkstattgespräches Erfolg! Erfolg? Kriterien für gute und schlechte Kommunikation bei Planung und Projektentwicklung am 5./5. Dezember 2002 in Gelsenkirchen

256 ERSEC conference proceeding 26. SOMLYÓDY L., VARIS O., YATES D. : Freshwater Management: Dilemmas and Challenges, IIASA WP-95-37, Laxenburg, Austria, UNITED NATIONS Economic and Social Council: Sustainable Flood Prevention. publications/ documents/guidelinesfloode.pdf, UNEP (United Nations Environmental Programme) Global resource information database (UNEP GRID) Europe participation freshwater_europe/pol.php (02/06), URAN, O.: Spatial Decision Support Systems for Coastal Zone and Water Management. Dissertation at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. ISBN: , WORLD WILDLIFE FUND (WWF): WWF`s Water and Wetland Index. Critical issues in water policy across Europe, WORLD WILDLIFE FUND (WWF): Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM); m (n. d.) 256

257 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Model Based Nitrogen Fertilization Considering Annual Weather Variability 基于年度气候变化的氮肥施用模型 K.C. Kersebaum Leibniz - Centre for Agricultural Landscape and Land Use Research Abstract The spatial and temporal adoption of nutrient supply to the demand of the crops is required to improve nitrogen use efficiency and to prevent contamination of water resources. High spatial and temporal variability of soil mineral nitrogen and high costs impede a frequent and dense soil sampling under practical conditions. Temporal dynamics of relevant state variables of the soil-crop nitrogen dynamics are simulated in agricultural system models using agro-meteorological data and temporal stable basic soil characteristics. The model HERMES was used within different places of Germany to derive field specific fertilizer recommendations by subsequent model runs at different development stages combining actualised real weather data and a typical weather scenario of the specific site for a predictive calculation of the nitrogen deficiency. Recently, the model was applied within the framework of Precision Agriculture using the spatial distribution of relevant soil and terrain characteristics. In a field trial real time site-specific model, recommendations were derived for two years. Compared with a N min /Hydro-N-sensor based method, the modelbased strategy yielded savings of 40 kg N ha -1 for both years without grain yield reduction. Long term simulations can be used to assess site specific fertilisation limits for groundwater protection. 摘要根据作物需求在不同的时空提供不同的养分需要提高氮肥的使用效率并防止水资源的污染 土壤矿质氮的高时空变异和高成本使在实际工作中很难进行频繁和密集的土壤采样 可根据农业气象数据和具有时间稳定性的土壤特性采用农业系统模型来模拟与土壤 - 作物体系氮动态相关的变量的时间动态 HERMES 模型在德国不同的地点进行应用 该模型在不同生长阶段结合实际的气象数据与某地点的典型气象模式来进行氮亏缺的预测, 通过随后的模型运行可得到田间的精确施肥推荐量 近来, 模型通过使用相关土壤和地形特点的空间分布被应用在精耕农业中 在为期两年的田间试验中, 采用模型进行实时精准施肥推荐 与基于 Nmin/Hydro-N 传感器的方法相比较, 在两年的试验中, 基于模型推荐的策略均节约 40 kg N ha -1, 而且并不减少作物产量 长期的模拟可被用来评估保护地下水的精准施肥界限 257

258 ERSEC conference proceeding 1 Introduction Nitrogen fertilization of agricultural crops is still a challenge due to the various processes and their interrelations within the soil-crop-atmosphere system. Nitrogen surplus in national nitrogen balances of industrialized countries and related problems of water quality are indicating the low efficiency of nitrogen applications (e.g. Isermann, 1990). The spatial and temporal adoption of nutrient supply to the demand of the crops is required to improve nitrogen use efficiency and to prevent contamination of water resources. Nitrogen fertilizer recommendations are usually based on measurements of soil mineral nitrogen, currently supported by optical sensors detecting the crop nitrogen status at advanced development stages. Nevertheless, both methods are just snapshots of the present situation, which are neither able to explain an observed phenomena nor to predict a probable development for the future. Moreover, recent agro-technical development using global positioning systems enables farmers to differentiate their crop management within fields considering the variability of relevant site conditions. This site specific crop management provides a better efficiency of applied nutrients combined with lower emissions of agro-chemicals. High spatial and temporal variability of soil mineral nitrogen would require a frequent and spatially dense soil sampling, which is not realistic under practical conditions due to high costs. Therefore, methods are needed to estimate the nitrogen demand considering both the soil nitrogen supply and the crop nutrient demand dependent on the actual and probable weather conditions. Agricultural system models transfer time stable soil and terrain related attributes, which have to be estimated once for a field, into a temporal dynamic of the relevant state variables of the soil-crop nitrogen dynamics using real time agro-meteorological data. We investigated the capability of the model HERMES (Kersebaum 1995) to simulate spatial variability of crop yield and nitrogen dynamics in different fields based on spatial soil and terrain information and applied the model in two years to calculate real time fertilizer recommendations for a field trial. Results are compared with recommendations based on soil analysis combined with an optical chlorophyll sensor. 2 Model Description 2.1 Fundamentals For the simulation of crop growth and nitrogen dynamics and the estimation of nitrogen fertiliser recommendations the process oriented model HERMES (Kersebaum, 1995) is used. The model consists of sub-modules for water balance, nitrogen transport and transformations, crop development and growth including N-uptake. The fundamentals of 258

259 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management the model should be described here only briefly. More details can be found in Kersebaum 1995 and Kersebaum & Beblik (2001). Figure 1 shows an overview of the model structure. Figure 1: Scheme of the nitrogen model HERMES Soil water is simulated by a simple capacity approach deriving the capacity parameters automatically from soil texture information according to the German soil taxonomy (AG Bodenkunde, 1994). These basic values are modified by organic matter content, bulk density and hydromorphic indices. For groundwater influenced sites capillary rise is calculated depending on soil texture and the distance to the groundwater using tabulated values of AG Bodenkunde (1994). These flux rates are defined for a water content of 70% of crop available water capacity and are used by the model as a steady state flux up to the lowest soil layer with less than 70% of available water capacity. The position of this lowest layer is determined daily to estimate the corresponding distance to the groundwater for capillary rise calculation. For crop specific potential evapotranspiration the user can select between different methods. The default method for Germany is the empirical method of Haude (1955) using crop specific factors during the growing season (Heger, 1978) and bare soil factors between harvest and crop emergence. Alternatively, the reference evapotranspiration from any formula can be read directly from a file or can be calculated by the Turc- Wendling formula (Wendling et al, 1991) or the Penman-Monteith approach described by Allen et al. (1998) using crop specific k c factors to estimate the potential crop specific evapotranspiration. The implementation of other methods is under construction. Partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is calculated depending on the leaf 259

260 ERSEC conference proceeding area index, which is one of the state variables of the crop growth model. The calculation of actual evaporation and transpiration considers the soil water status and time variable vertical root distribution of crops. An empirical distribution function of Gerwitz & Page (1974) is used to distribute the dry matter allocated to the roots over depth. The submodel for nitrogen mineralisation follows the concept of net-mineralisation and simulates release of mineral N from two pools of potentially decomposable nitrogen according to first order reactions. The initial size of a slow mineralisable pool is derived from soil organic matter nitrogen (Nuske, 1983). Resistant compounds from crops or manure are added to that pool at harvest or manure application. A smaller easily decomposable pool mineralising is fed by easily decomposable compounds of different crop residues and manure. Nitrogen in crop residues recycled to the soil is calculated automatically using the simulated N-uptake and a crop-specific relation to the N-export with the yield allowing simulation of complete rotations. To consider the specific history of a field, a preliminary run of several years with the historical management is recommended to allow the self adjustment of the pools. Daily mineralization coefficients are calculated depending on mean air temperature using two Arrhenius functions from Nuske (1983) and Nordmeyer and Richter (1985). Soil moisture effects are considered according to Myers et al. (1982). Denitrification is calculated by an approach taken from Richter and Söndgerath (unpublished, cited in Schneider, 1991). Daily denitrification is simulated for the top soil using a Michaelis-Menten kinetic modified by reduction functions depending on water filled pore space and temperature. The submodel for crop growth was developed on the basis of the SUCROS model (Keulen et al. 1982). Driven by the global radiation and temperature, daily net dry matter production is simulated. The partitioning of the assimilation to different crop organs is determined by the phenological development of the crops, which is calculated by a cumulative biological time based on thermal time ( C * day) modified by day length and vernalization if applicable for the specific crop. The root dry matter is distributed over depth by an empirical function according to Gerwitz & Page (1974) with an increase of rooting depth with the biological time. Dry matter production will be reduced if water or nitrogen are limiting. Water logging situations can be considered reducing crop growth according to Supit et al. (1994). Water stress is estimated by the ratio between actual and potential transpiration. To consider nitrogen stress, a crop specific function of critical nitrogen content in the crop, depending on the stage of development, is defined (Kersebaum & Beblik, 2001). Alternatively, critical dilution curves as proposed by Greenwood et al. (1991) can be used, which relate the critical nitrogen content to the crop biomass. 260

261 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management For nitrogen uptake the demand of the crop is calculated by the difference between the actual nitrogen content of the crop and a maximum N content which is also related to the biological time. Actual nitrogen uptake is limited by the supply of soil mineral nitrogen by convective and diffusive transport to the roots and by a maximum uptake rate per cm root length. 2.2 Input requirements The model operates on a daily time step using daily weather data for precipitation, temperature and global radiation. Routines are included to calculate radiation alternatively from sunshine duration if direct measurements are not available. Potential reference evapoptranspiration can be directly read from a file or can be calculated using the Turc-Wendling formula (Wendling et al. 1991) or the Haude formula which requires the vapour pressure deficit at 2 p.m. additionally. Using the model for real time fertilizer recommendations requires the online availability of weather data, ideally from an automatic weather station nearby. Spatial variability of radiation due to topographic shading (Reuter et al. 2005) can be considered using external correction files for the standard weather file. Soil information is required at a resolution of 10 cm for the profile. The German soil textural classes of AG Bodenkunde (1994) are the most important soil information, but new texture classes and related parameters can be defined by the user. For the plough layer, the organic matter content and its C/N ratio should be given. Additional information like stone content, wetness and groundwater level are needed. Information on wetness can be taken from individual soil profile information or can be derived using the topographic wetness index (Moore et al. 1993) based on terrain analysis of a digital elevation model. Management information of sowing date, harvest dates and amounts of fertilisation and irrigation are also needed to operate the model. Spatial variability and site specific management can be considered using exported tables from a GIS. 2.3 Procedure to derive fertiliser recommendations The basic concept for calculating fertiliser recommendations is described in detail by Kersebaum & Beblik (2001). Figure 2 demonstrates the principle of the calculation. The simulation of nitrogen dynamics in the soil-crop system usually starts from an initial mineral nitrogen content in soil, e.g., after harvest of the previous crop using actual weather data from a neighbouring weather station. When a recommendation is required, the model predicts nitrogen uptake and soil mineral nitrogen changes operating with typical site specific weather scenarios until the simulation predicts the 261

262 ERSEC conference proceeding next relevant development stage for fertilisation (e.g., stem elongation for winter wheat fertilisation). Figure 2: Scheme of model based fertilizer recommendations with HERMES (1 = day of recommendation, 2 = calculated date when N deficit occurs, 3 = predicted date of predefined development stage for next fertilization) (modified acc. to Kersebaum & Beblik, 2001) The model estimates the daily deficiency between nitrogen uptake required for nitrogenunlimited growth and available nitrogen in soil and accumulates the deficiency over the prediction period. The total deficiency is recommended to be applied in subsequent applications ahead of the critical phases. Between the relevant stages the model should be run after shorter intervals (e.g., days) with actualised weather data. If the actual weather deviates strongly from the applied scenario - for example, nitrogen is leached due to high precipitation, the next fertilisation has to be given earlier. If nitrogen supply is higher than predicted, the next fertilizer recommendation is reduced automatically. At the present status, the model can be used to recommend nitrogen fertilisation for cereals. Maize, potatoes, sugar beets and oilseed rape are in the test phase. 3 Model Application 3.1 Model validation Model validation has been done on several sites mostly within Germany (e.g., Kersebaum & Richter, 1991, Kersebaum, 1995, Kersebaum & Beblik, 2001). Validation was done with consistent observations of soil and crop state variables (soil moisture, soil mineral nitrogen, crop biomass, yields, N in biomass etc.). An example of a silage maize field in northern Germany is shown in Figure

263 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management [t ha -1 ]above ground biomass (dry matter) J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O [kg N ha -1 ] nitrogen in above ground biomass J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O [kg N ha -1 ] soil mineral nitrogen (0-90 cm) ( ) J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O date Figure 3: Comparison of HERMES model results (curves) with time series observations on above ground crop biomass of silage maize, N-uptake and soil mineral nitrogen (dot in brackets: 0-60cm) of a groundwater affected site in Karkendamm/Schleswig- Holstein/Germany (dots/bars = average of 4 replicate observations and standard deviation) (from Herrmann et al., 2004) In most cases, validation was performed using measurements from mixed samples across a field. Observed values, especially for soil mineral nitrogen and crop biomass often show a high spatial variability which impedes model validation using mixed samples. Fig. 4 shows the time course of simulated soil mineral nitrogen on a heterogeneous field in comparison with observed values from 60 grid points. The standard deviation of measured and simulated values over the field shows that variability can be partly explained using variable input data from the grid points. In some cases, especially after fertiliser applications, the variability increases indicating that human activities increase the spatial variability of the measurements. soil mineral nitrogen in 0-90 cm [kg N ha -1 ] simulation average simulation standard deviation observations incl. standard deviation 10/30/ /30/ /29/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /30/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /31/ /31/ /31/ /02/ /02/ /02/2002 Figure 4: Simulated and observed soil mineral N (0 90 cm) for 60 grid points within a field in North-Rhine-Westfalia/Germany. Bars and grey shade indicate the standard deviation of observations resp. simulation 263

264 ERSEC conference proceeding Beside the possibility to validate the model with time series measurements, model performance and site specific sensitivity can also be tested with spatially distributed data. To investigate the capability of the model HERMES to simulate spatial variability of crop yield and nitrogen dynamics within fields, we analysed the spatial variability of the model input data on 2 fields in Germany by grid sampling and measured the spatial distribution of yield, soil moisture and soil mineral nitrogen at different times for comparison (Kersebaum et al., 2002). For both locations, the relevant meteorological data were recorded by automatic weather stations. Figure 5 demonstrates for the same field as in Figure 4 the spatial variation of observations and simulations at the 60 sampling grid points in summer 2000 after the winter wheat harvest. Figure 5: Comparison of observed and simulated a) soil moisture, b) grain yields of winter wheat and c) soil mineral nitrogen along a transect of 60 grid points on a field in North-Rhine-Westphalia / Germany in summer Model based fertilizer recommendations Up to now, fertilizer recommendations in Germany are usually given for entire fields. The model has been used in field trials comparing fertilizer recommendations and yields of different methods. Figure6 shows a summary of fertilization trials for cereals which was performed within 3 years on different sites in Northern Germany by the Agricultural Advisory Office in Hanover/ Germany. The model used in this context was the HERMES derivate MINERVA (Beblik & Kersebaum, 1998). For the comparison, the most popular methods in Germany were selected: a fertilizer recommendation according the N min -method (Wehrmann & Scharpf, 1986), which is based on the measurement of soil mineral nitrogen in the root zone (0-90 cm) in early spring, and a combination of soil (N min ) and crop nitrogen status measurements (optical chlorophyll detection acc. to Wollring (1996). In Fig. 6a the average relative yields (N min standard method = 100) of the 3 methods plus a non fertilised plot are shown for winter wheat, winter rye and winter barley. It can be seen, that except for the zero plots all methods show no significant differentiation in yields. Under these conditions of equal yields, the nitrogen efficiency of the different methods can be calculated relating the yield increase, compared to the specific zero plots to the amount of fertilizer applied. Fig. 6b shows the 264

265 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management relative efficiency (yield increase per kg N of N min -plot = 100) averaged over all plots for the single years and crops. From this figure, it can be seen, that on average the model recommendations result, in most of the years, in higher nitrogen efficiency than the methods based on measurements. Figure 6: Comparison of different methods for fertilizer recommendations including no fertilization (summary of 41 fertilization plots for 3 cereal crops performed by the Lower Saxony State Agency for Agriculture in Hanover/Germany) for a) relative crop yields (standard N min method = 100%) and b) relative nitrogen efficiency (explanation see text) compared to N min method (= 100%) The model has also been tested in the context of Precision Agriculture to derive spatially variable fertilizer recommendations within fields using site specific input data from different field locations. A fertilization trial was carried out on a 20 ha field of the Südzucker Company in Saxony/Germany comparing different fertilization methods. Four different fertiliser strategies and a zero fertilisation were applied in 2000 and 2002 for winter wheat: 1)The "Nmin/sensor" strategy uses the average measured soil mineral nitrogen content in early spring to calculate the first nitrogen application according to the N min -method (Wehrmann & Scharpf, 1986). The next two fertiliser applications were estimated site specifically by an online chlorophyll sensor (Hydro N-sensor) (Leithold, 2000). 2)The "HERMES uni" strategy uses the average of the model based fertilizer recommendation for all grid cells of the field (simulations used only the N min observations of August 1999 resp. 2001). 3)For the "HERMES uni +/-" strategy 30% were added to the amount applied in the above-mentioned "HERMES average" recommendation in 2000, and 30% less than in HERMES average were applied in )The "HERMES ssp" strategy used for each grid cell the site specific model recommendation. All simulations were based on the N min observations after harvest of the previous crop 265

266 ERSEC conference proceeding (August 1999 resp. August 2001). During 2001 the field was fertilised for winter rape uniformly except the Zero-plots which received no nitrogen. The experimental design and results are discussed in detail in Kersebaum et al. (2003) and Kersebaum et al. (2005). A summary of the results regarding the average yields and the corresponding average fertilizer applications of the different treatments is shown in Fig. 7. In both years, the model recommendations are about 40 kg N ha -1 less than the N min +sensor recommendations without any significant difference in yield. Only the non fertilised plots differed significantly from the other treatments. The site specific recommendations from the model ranged from 75 to 157 kg N ha -1 in 2000 and from 70 to 172 kg N ha -1 in 2002, while the Nmin/sensor recommendation has a range from 154 to 194 kg N ha -1 in 2000 and 150 to 2002 kg N ha -1 in Nevertheless, the result of the HERMES uni- 30% variant in 2002 indicate, that there is still a potential to reduce fertilisation without yield reduction. However, in the model based recommendations the uncertainty of model calculations is accounted for. Especially during the prediction phase, the model uses a safety distance above the critical nitrogen content function, which marks the threshold below crop growth reduction in the simulation. Figure 7: Comparison of different uniform and site specific fertilisation recommendations on a 20 ha field in Saxony/Germany (averages of 8 grid cells for each fertilisation, except HERMES ssp.= 32 grid cells) The results shown are only valid for specific years and recommendations are derived from the aspect of the crops demand for an optimum growth. On the other hand, the protection of groundwater resources from pollution might require fertilisation limits which are below the optimum for crops depending on the site conditions (soil, climate, crop rotation). The assessment of such a limit requires a simulation with long term weather data, to avoid an overweight of years with unfavourable conditions, when nitrate concentrations beyond the threshold can occur even with low fertilisation rates. Fig. 8 shows an example of the assessment of maximum annual fertilisation rates, to ensure a long term average of seepage water concentration below the drinking water threshold of 50 mg NO 3 l -1 (~ 11 mg N l -1 ). For the estimation, a stepwise simulation of 266

267 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management different fertilisation rates to winter wheat over a 32 year period for the field in North- Rhine-Westphalia (see also Fig. 4 and 5) was carried out. (X # N # # (X # (X (X # (X (X #0 # # (X # #0 # # (X # #0 #0 # # #0 # # #0 forest area Meters 267 # # # #0 #0 # # # # #0 #0 # # (X (X # # #0 # (X #0 #0 (X #0 # # #Y (X N fertiliser limit [kg N ha -1] < > 195 Figure 8: Maximum annual fertilisation rates for winter wheat for a field in North- Rhine-Westphalia to ensure an average nitrate concentration below 50 mg NO 3 l -1 in the seepage water calculated over 32 years. The average seepage concentration was calculated from the cumulative percolation and nitrate leaching during the 32 year period. In major parts of the field, the maximum amount of fertilisation corresponds well with the nitrogen requirements of the crops. But on a small part in the North-East and in the South, where soil conditions are less favourable for crop growth, limitations are below the optimum and yield reductions were calculated for these areas. 4 Conclusion The results show, that the model HERMES is able to be used as a tool for fertilizer recommendations using daily weather data and site specific weather scenarios. Spatial distributions of soil and terrain properties can be used to produce site specific recommendations within the framework of Precision Agriculture. Nevertheless, high small scale variability of observations and uncertainties of input data impede the validation of a model, in general. Although the model has demonstrated its capability to save fertiliser compared to other methods, e.g., N min /sensor based recommendations, without significant yield loss, the results of the fertilisation experiments show, that there # #

268 ERSEC conference proceeding is still some potential for reduction of nitrogen fertiliser. The uncertainty of input data, the model error itself and the predictive calculation require some security distance to the critical point, where yield is reduced. Further development of models and various technical equipments to improve the quality and resolution of site characteristics might partly reduce these uncertainties. Nevertheless, agro-meteorological forecasts over longer periods will remain as a main source of uncertainty for the prediction of crop growth and nitrogen dynamics for fertilizer recommendations. On the other hand, long term time series of weather data can be used to calculate fertilisation limits, to prevent groundwater resources from nitrate pollution. Acknowledgements The author thanks the German Research Foundation and the Federal Ministry for Education and Research, Suedzucker AG, Claas Company and Amazone Company for funding and technical support; H.I. Reuter, O. Wendroth, K. Lorenz, M. Heisig; N. Wypler and M. Baehr for assistance. References 1. AG Bodenkunde (1994) Bodenkundliche Kartieranleitung (in German). 4th edition, Schweizerbarth, Stuttgart. 2. Allen, R.G., L.S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith Crop evapotranspiration. Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, Roma 3. Beblik, A. & Kersebaum, K.C. (1998) Stickstoffdüngeplanung durch Simulationsrechnung: Methodik - Beispiele Effizienz (in German). Bornimer Agrartechnische Berichte 21: Gerwitz, A. & Page, E.R. (1974) An empirical mathematical model to describe plant root systems. J. Appl. Ecol. 11: Greenwood, D. J., Gastal, F., Lemaire, G., Draycott, A., Millard, P. & Neeteson, J.J. (1991) Growth rate and % N of field grown crops: Theory and experiments. Annals of Botany 67: Haude, W. (1955) Zur Bestimmung der Verdunstung auf möglichst einfache Weise (in German). Mitteilgn. Dtsch. Wetterdienst Heger, K. (1978) Bestimmung der potentiellen Evapotranspiration über unterschiedlichen landwirtschaftlichen Kulturen (in German). Mitteilgn. Dtsch. Bodenkundl. Ges. 26: Herrmann, A., Kersebaum, K.C., Wachendorf, M. & Taube, F. (2004) Simulation of nitrogen dynamics in forage maize using the HERMES model. In: A. Lüscher et al (eds.), Land use systems in grassland dominated regions. Grassland Science in Europe, Vol. 9, Isermann, K. (1990) Share of agriculture in nitrogen and phosphorus emissions into the surface waters of Western Europe against the background of their eutrophication. Fert. Res. 26, Kersebaum, K.C. (1995) Application of a simple management model to simulate water and 268

269 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management nitrogen dynamics. Ecol. Mod. 81: Kersebaum, K. C. & Beblik, A.J. (2001) Performance of a nitrogen dynamics model applied to evaluate agricultural management practices. In: M. Shaffer, L. Ma, S. Hansen (eds.), Modeling carbon and nitrogen dynamics for soil management, CRC Press, Boca Raton, USA, Kersebaum, K.C. & Lorenz, K. (2002) Einfluss unterschiedlicher Bodeninformationen auf die Ergebnisse von Ertragssimulation und modellbasierter Düngerbedarfsberechnung (in German). In: K. Wild, R.A.E. Müller & U. Birkner (eds.), Proceedings 23rd Annual Meeting of GIL 2002, Dresden, Germany, Kersebaum K.C., Lorenz, K., Reuter, H.I., Schwarz, J., Wegehenkel, M. & Wendroth, O. (2005) Operational use of agro-meteorological data and GIS to derive site specific nitrogen fertilizer recommendations based on the simulation of soil and crop growth processes. Phys. Chem. Earth 30: Kersebaum, K.C., Lorenz, K., Reuter, H.I., Wendroth, O., Giebel, A. & Schwarz, J. (2003) Site specific nitrogen fertilisation recommendations based on simulation. In: J. Stafford & A. Werner (eds.), Precision Agriculture. Proc. 4th European Conference on Precision Agriculture, Berlin, Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen, Kersebaum, K. C., Reuter, H. I., Lorenz, K. & Wendroth, O. (2002) Modelling crop growth and nitrogen dynamics for advisory purposes regarding spatial variability. In: L.J. Ahuja, L. Ma, T.A. Howell (eds.), Agricultural system models in field research and technology transfer, Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, USA, Kersebaum, K.C. & Richter, J. (1991) Modelling nitrogen dynamics in a soil-plant system with a simple model for advisory purposes. Fert. Res. 27: Keulen, H. van, Penning de Vries, F.W.T. & Drees, E.M. (1982) A summary model for crop growth. In: F.W.T Penning de Vries & H.H. van Laar (eds.), Simulation of plant growth and crop production, PUDOC, Wageningen, Netherlands, Leithold, P. (2000) Der Hydro N Sensor bestimmt den Stickstoffbedarf von Getreide (in German), Neue Landwirtschaft, 1: Moore, I. D., Gessler, P. E., Nielsen, G. A., Peterson, G. A. (1993) Soil attribute prediction using terrain analysis. Soil Sc. Am. J., 57: Myers, R.J.K., Campbell, C.A. & Weier, K.L. (1982) Quantitative relationship between net nitrogen mineralization and moisture content of soils. Can. J. Soil Sci. 62: Nordmeyer, H. & Richter, J. (1985) Incubation experiments on nitrogen mineralization in loess and sandy soils. Plant and Soil 83, Nuske, A. (1983): Ein Modell für die Stickstoff-Dynamik von Acker-Lössböden im Winterhalbjahr - Messungen und Simulationen (in German), Ph. D., University Hannover, Germany. 23. Reuter, H.I., Wendroth, O., Kersebaum, K.C. & Schwarz, J. (2001): Solar radiation modelling for precision farming - a feasible approach for better understanding variability of crop production. In: G. Grenier & S. Blackmore (eds.), Proceedings of the 3rd European Conference on Precision Agriculture, Agro Montpellier, Montpellier, France,

270 ERSEC conference proceeding 24. Reuter, H.I., Kersebaum, K.C. & Wendroth, O. (2005) Modelling of solar radiation influenced by topographic shading evaluation and application for precision farming. Phys. Chem. Earth 30: Schneider, U. (1991) Messungen von Denitrifikations- und Nitratauswaschungsverlusten in einem landwirtschaftlich genutzten Wassereinzugsgebiet (in German), Ph. D., University Bonn. Germany. 26. Supit, I., Hooijer, A.A. and Diepen, C.A. van (eds.) (1994) System description of the WOFOST 6.0 crop simulation model implemented in CGMS. Vol. 1: Theory and Algorithms. EC Publication EUR 15956, Luxemburg. 27. Wehrmann, J. & Scharpf, H.C. (1986) The N min -method - an aid to integrating various objectives of nitrogen fertilisation. Zeitsch. Pflanzenernähr. Bodenk. 149, Wendling, U., Schellin, H.-G. & Thomä, M. (1991) Bereitstellung von täglichen Informationen zum Wasserhaushalt des Bodens für die Zwecke der agrarmeteorologischen Beratung (in German). Z. Meteorol. 41: Wollring, J. (1996) Der Stickstoffbedarf des Getreides wird fotografisch ermittelt (in German). Ernährungsdienst 51: 13 pp. 270

271 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Does Investment Alleviate Water Scarcity and Increase Income? A Case Study from Northwestern China 投资可以缓解水资源短缺和增加收入吗? 来自中国西北的个案分析 Lan Fang 1 and Ernst-August Nuppenau 2 1 Centre for Rural Development Research, Shaanxi Normal University, China 2 Institute for Agricultural Policy and Market Research, Justus Liebig University, Germany Abstract This paper deals with heavy pressures to save water in natural resource management due to increased water scarcity. We take the example of a Chinese watershed and investigate the water use efficiency in Chinese irrigated agriculture through a field study. The economic and environmental impacts of farmers adopting modern irrigation technologies and public sectors improving water transit systems are studied in particular. A spatial mathematical programming model is employed for optimization. The emphasis is on private and public investments in water saving. Water saving in a canal system enables an extension of the system and provides food and income for more farmers. The model results are of great value for policy makers and project managers who want to optimize irrigation projects, and also provide references for farmers in applying suitable irrigation technologies. 摘要水资源短缺的不断加剧, 使得节约用水的压力越来越大 我们选取了中国西北的一个灌区小流域, 通过实地调研来考察中国灌溉农业的用水效率 调研区农户私人主要投资于现代节水技术, 而政府公共投资则用于提高输水过程中的效率, 我们注重于对两方面投资对当地经济和环境的影响效应进行分析 我们运用一个空间的水资源模型来进行项目区的优化分析过程, 重点在于节水活动中的私人和公共投资行为 模型结果表明, 灌溉渠道中水的节约可以延长渠道供水长度, 从而为更多农户提供粮食和收入 模型结果对政策制定者和项目管理者有很大的参考价值, 也可为农户采用适用的灌溉技术提供参考 271

272 ERSEC conference proceeding 1 Introduction Water scarcity and mismanagement are severe economic and ecological problems in China. The nation s water consumption is merely 2200 m 3 per capita. In comparison to the average level of the world China has only 31% of what other nations have in terms of water resource endowment and does not use water rationally. For instance, China s agriculture already consumes approximately 75.7% of the nation s water resources (Communique on Water Resource In 2006), but only about 46% of this water is used efficiently (China-Spain Water Forum, 2007). Water logging and soil salinization are common problems in China. Many studies have been carried out in the field of responses to water scarcity and contamination. Some of them focus on approaches to assess and improve the performance of water use in agriculture in terms of increasing the water use efficiency (Keller, et al., 1996; Wichelns, 1999; Cai, et al., 2001). Some have focused on the sustainable use of groundwater resources as well as on contamination problems (Hellergers, et al., 2001; Roseta-Palma, 2002; Gayatri and Edward, 2002). Issues, such as how to utilize limited water resources most efficiently and to protect the environment, have attracted more and more attention, notably from water researchers as well as practioners. This study follows an approach developed by Umetsu and Chakravorty (1998) to investigate water use efficiency in irrigation activities and corresponding investments from public and private sectors. The study establishes a spatial water allocation model based on empirical analysis. The economic and environmental impacts from the adoption of efficient modern irrigation technologies and construction of high quality canal systems are studied and simulated. Water pricing and institutions are involved. Additionally we consider interactions of private investments in on-farm water saving technologies and public investments in water conveyance systems. The model results suggest that better water allocation increases economic and ecological efficiencies of water use. Public investment plays an important role in water saving activities, securing social welfare and reducing the negative externality, and it works complementarily with private investment. The study also stated that a high water price is the biggest motivation for farmers to use water saving technologies. 2 FIELD Survey and Empirical Findings A field survey has been conducted in a typically managed Chinese watershed and irrigation project in the county Li Quan of Shaanxi Province, in In this county the farming system is dominated by apple production. Farmers ensure their food security by growing apples for food exchange. Knowing that farms are very small in China, water efficiency and increased apple production contribute to food security, and there is big pressure for farmers to invest in water saving technologies. The socio-economic situation of farm households is described in a field survey overview (Fang, 2004). 272

273 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Investment, Yuan/Mu Investment in water saving technology Water consumption A B C D E F G Farmer category Notes: A: Flood irrigation users B: Border irrigation users C: Basin check irrigation users D: Seepage irrigation users E: Sprinkler irrigation users F: Drip irrigation users G: Dry-land farming users Figure 1: Relationship between investment in irrigation and water consumption Water consumption, m 3 /Mu Here we just present some highlights concerning current water use and technologies. A key hypothesis of the study and an important field survey finding is that there should be a relation between private investment, water consumption and water pricing. Currently (2001), the water use per hectare already declines with the water prices. As shown in Figure 1, the higher the water price is, the more investment in irrigation technology one can find, and consequently the less water is consumed. As a further result, the negative effects of high water consumption, water logging and salinization, can be reduced. By taking into account farmers' adoption of modern water saving technologies, improvements of public water transit systems, objective functions are empirically grounded. Based on such empirical data analysis, we then have established a spatial water allocation model which contains an econometric and a mathematic programming model. 3 Methodology of the Study 3.1 Layout of the irrigation area and adoption of various technologies in the study area The basic outline of the model was developed by Umetsu (1998) and is applied to our spatial water use problem. As an innovation, we include investments for irrigation. The irrigation system of the model assumes a relatively closed water cycle system, instead of an open river basin, and it contains controlled inflows and outflows. Farmers extract water from the canal, and simultaneously water seeps from the canal. It is assumed that farmers fields recharge the aquifer which is below a layer of top soil. Each farmer has access to groundwater. For a preliminary description, to reduce complexity, neither time nor a third party impact is considered in the model. Water flows, water losses, and potential choices of irrigation technologies are illustrated in Figure 2. A central planner supplies water to farmers who are located along the canal in the project area. In that system we consider construction. 273

274 ERSEC conference proceeding Figure 2: Water flow and allocation of irrigation technologies in the survey area Source: Modified from Umetsu and Chakravorty, 1998 and maintenance costs of the canal; upstream water is, therefore, cheaper than downstream water. If the central planner charges costs per meter of canal, as a hypothesis, traditional surface irrigation technologies, such as flood irrigation and border irrigation, should be intensively adopted at the head of the canal, whereas water saving technologies, such as drip irrigation, better pay off at the tail. Along the move of the water in the canal, approaching the tail irrigation area, water becomes scarcer due to extraction by individual farmers and leakage from the canal. Finally, canal water can be used up to a certain point, such as point C, as also shown in Figure 2. We assume that the point C will emerge somewhere in a watershed, on which farmers stop using canal water and switch to groundwater. Furthermore, Point C (stretch of canal, see results) depends on the efficient use of water. It is endogenous to the system and it will be determined by the model. It implies that, upstream farmers, who are located before point C, extract water from the public canal rather than from the groundwater aquifer. Since the cost of canal water is much lower than that of groundwater, this is reasonable. After point C, groundwater supply gradually becomes the dominant water source in the tail area. Importantly, relatively expensive groundwater should encourage farmers to adopt modern irrigation technologies in order to save water and lower costs (Fang, 2004). As shown in Figures 1 and 2, basin check irrigation, locally produced seepage irrigation, modern sprinkler and drip irrigation should be dominant at the tail of the survey area. For methodological reason, as the adoption of different types of irrigation techniques is an important factor to be re-considered in this study, we go for a more continuous presentation in space. In many previous studies, researchers mostly regarded technologies discrete and exogenous, rather than making them choice variables (Caswell and Zilberman, 1985; Chakravorty et al., 1995; Umetsu and Chakravorty, 1998). The key argument here is that all kinds of techniques are in a continuous set and it depends on monetary costs and benefits rather than on a kind of fixed technical coefficient. 274

275 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Apparently we have discrete technologies, but look at the varied water efficiency and investment from a functional view point or production function approach, then we can categorize technologies along a track of marginal costs. Note, our water efficiency function is a quadratic one and we consider technology as an occurrence on the line. By this approach the model can optimize technologies endogenously instead of exogenously fixing a technology. 3.2 Econometric model The econometric model of the study contains three functions. The Hotelling Lemma is applied to retrieve a restricted profit function (Eq.(1)) based on the empirical observations of the farm budgets in the Liquan county. Hereby a contingent water demand is depicted dependent on gross margin levels. Also investments in water saving technologies, water prices, etc. are derived. A regression analysis was used to obtain an on-farm water use efficiency function (Eq. (2)) and a water loss function (Eq.(3)). These functions serve as key components for the empirical foundation in the spatial model (Fang, 2004). Our restricted profit function is quadratic. It is expressed below in Eq.(1) (t values for coefficients and statistics are attached): 2 π = 11.83EW 0.01EW I 0.07EW t = t = t = (1) n =141, R 2 = , F =36. 34, sign. F. = Where π stands for profits (net income or gross margin are used synonym) per Mu (Chinese land measure) in the project area, EW is the effective water consumption per Mu, and I is annual investment per Mu in water saving technology, measured in Yuan per Mu. Since on-farm effective water consumption is one of the key measurements of optimal water resource allocation, it is essential to introduce it as a coefficient in the profit function (to reflect the on-farm water use efficiency). Umetsu and Chakravorty (1998) specify this coefficient as a proportional factor (0<h<1). The empirical analysis on a farm water use efficiency function, as dependent on investments, is expressed below in Eq. (2). The efficiency has been calculated according to IWMI standards. It is quadratic and is derived from individual farm calculations of water balances (Fang, 2004) Note that the efficiency is calculated as a net efficiency without precipitation: 6 2 h = I I t = t = t = (2) 275

276 ERSEC conference proceeding n =141, R 2 = , F = , sign. F. = Specifically h can be interpreted as on-farm water use efficiency, which is a percentage of water embodied compared to water applied, and I is again the annual private investment per Mu,. The data, grouped, is from 141 observations along the canal in the watershed. Equivalently to on farm efficiency, a canal water loss function a, as a coefficient describing the efficiency of public water management, is used to evaluate the efficiency of the water conveyance performance. This canal water loss function depends on public investment, and it is based on the field survey and relevant literature. Then, the function has been estimated as: 7 2 a = K K t = t = t = n = 30 (3) R 2 = F = sig. F = Again our own calculation and regressions give a as the canal water loss rate (as percentage) per km, and it is dependent on K which is the annual public investment per km in a canal. Hereby, we follow a strategy of having non-discrete investment types, though building canals is normally discrete with concrete or tubes; as observations and decision we made the investment opportunities continuous. 3.3 Mathematical programming model To deal with the programming model, an objective function and several constraints are constructed and incorporated. The objective function is depicted by a restricted profit function approach depending on scarce water allocation. In our case farmers are specialized in irrigated apple production, other crops are not taken into account. We merely focus on spatial water allocation. Natural conditions of agricultural activities, such as soil quality, climate, etc., are assumed constant and excluded; only the heterogeneity of location along the public canal is given priority in the optimization. The model's usefulness is, therefore, not regionally confined. The objective function is formulated in a way that it maximizes the social welfare (i.e., net income as value added or producer surplus in a restricted profit function approach) in the survey area by focusing on efficient use of water. The optimization of social welfare in the survey area was investigated by taking into consideration the water related revenue (as gross margin) minus the expenditure on water conservation and other water related costs. The constraints include the estimated on-farm water use efficiency function, the canal water loss function and two sets of equations of motion on water 276

277 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management movement. In particular, the equations of motion are the most important constraints in the spatial model. Then, due to the high non-linear characteristics of the objective function and constraints, the model was solved by using Conopt (GAMS solver) and Minos (GAMS solver) together. Specifically our spatial programming model is a static model within one time period framework. Some remarks are to be made on the outlay: The model considers the economic impacts of investments on water efficiency as an annual annuity problem of optimizing returns from investment. From the aspect of space and spatial change, the model should be treated as a quasi-dynamic process (process of motion in space). In the present study the mathematics of motion, normally used in a time framework, are applied now to a spatial framework. All variables and parameters of the model are location-wise (spatially) variable, while the locations are connected through a new dimension: the direction and length of canal. In that case the mathematics of control theory which is normally found in dynamic optimization could be applied to space, considering space as a continuous dimension. For technical reasons, our model is discrete. It splits a potential distance of 10 km, for a canal, in 200 locations (each of 50 m length along the canal). Then the watershed has a width of 200m. It means every farm has 1 ha (200x50). By this spatial framing the objective function of the spatial programming fits into a setup that maximizes the social welfare of 200 farmers living in the whole survey area. Mathematically the sum of individual profits provides the social welfare. By focusing on efficient uses of water on farms and in the watershed, reducing negative externalities, the profits of the whole area is maximized. In line with a mathematical formulation the objective function can be presented as: ( I j CWPj CWj GWPj GW ) 0. MaxSW = 15 π 05 (4) j j j j j j K j j where: j = location, ranging from 1 to 200 in the model, since it represents a stretch every 50m along the canal, i.e., the total length of irrigation system is 10km. SW = social welfare over the irrigation area π j = profit in Yuan/ Mu at location j I j = annual private investment in technology in Yuan/Mu at location j K j = annual public investment in water conveyance in Yuan/km at location j ( K is measured in Yuan/km, one unit of j (50m) is equivalent of 0.05 length of one kilometer, so it gets a coefficient 0.05). CWP j = price of canal water at location j GWP j = price of groundwater at location jcw j = canal water consumption at location j 277

278 ERSEC conference proceeding GW j = groundwater consumption at location j (Note: the objective function becomes Mu related by employing a coefficient of 15. It converts Chinese land measures Mu to 1 ha (15 Mu are equal to 1 ha). Further, farm sizes are not explicitly considered, though as mentioned, farms are small and 1 hectare is representative.) Following the notation of dynamic optimization, equations of motion are the most important constraints in a spatial-dynamic model (now to be interpreted as spatial movement from the head to the tail of the watershed: 10 km). In this model equations of motion are transferred to a location wise function. Technically one speaks of differential equations. For us, they are central elements to solve a location problem. Since canal water is moving, with locations and groundwater stocks also changing, water flows can be expressed as differential equations of spatial motion, respectively. An equation of motion (now spatial) is a classical concept in dynamic optimization procedures (Chiang, 1992). The equation of motion for canal water flows in our modeling framework is expressed in a way of fulfilling GAMS model requirements (McKinney and Savitsky, 2003; Dellink, Szonyi, and Bartelings, 2001). It can be specified, as below, with initial condition: crem 1 = cw0 15 cw1 (5) and discrete flow motion: crem a crem cw j = ( 1 j 1 ) j 1 15 j (6) where additionally: crem j = canal water at location j a j-1 = canal water loss rate at location j-1 To explain: 1. The Eq. (5) is the initial condition for canal water flows, where cw 0 represents the canal water supply at the water source. cw 1 is the quantity of canal water consumed by the first farmer within the first 50 meters, and crem 1 is therefore the canal water that remains after the first farmer has extracted his water. This remaining water then passes down to the next farmer, i.e., the next location. In total we have 200 decision making units for a potential distance of 10 km which are connected through the flows. If enough water is available and water is not merely used at the head area, all farmers might receive water, but this is hypothetical. Overuse in the head will result in no water for those living at the tail. Eq. (6) describes the amount of canal water that remains at 278

279 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management location j, which starts from the second farmer and goes to the next farmer. The general function of motion is expressed as a volume of water that remains from the previous location, j-1, minus water consumption at the present location, j. But crem j, which represents remaining canal water, i.e., the canal water stock at location j, is not only a technical matter. Additionally we introduce a canal water loss rate a j-1, defined, as before, as behavioral equation; it represents the canal water loss rate at location j Eq. (6) is a basic concept for canal water movement. In principle, the equation of motion is the same for groundwater motion, i.e., the initial condition Eq. (7), and, the flow Eq. (8). As an initial point in Eq.(7), groundwater stocks start to build up from the head of the survey area. This implies that there is an initial condition grem ( 0) = A. Specifically grem 1 is the groundwater remaining at the first location of the survey area. In terms of terminal condition, however, groundwater is free of restrictions and can give a lower bound of zero in the optimization process. 3. It is important to recognize that groundwater aquifers are recharged by water leaking from the canal and seepage from farmer's fields. The model therefore suggests that groundwater stocks will increase all the time due to the recharge from both sources, canal and field leakage, and without any extraction before point C (in Figure 2). At least in the first section of the watershed, where most canal water is used, farmers will probably not extract groundwater. Groundwater extraction starts at point C. The reason is that canal water is cheaper than groundwater. Farmers have no incentive and need to pump groundwater until C, though technically they could supplement canal water with ground water. After point C, there is minimal water flowing in the canal, groundwater extraction starts from this point, and supplements canal water. This implies that the fraction recharged from canal water becomes zero. From point C the groundwater stock can only be recharged by seepage from farmers fields. The stages are specified in the equation of motion (8). The mathematical formulation of the equation of motion for groundwater change is presented below: Initial condition: grem = gw β ( h tw gw (7) ) Discrete flow motion: grem β tw (8) j = grem j 1 + a j 1 crem j 1 15 gw j + β (1 h j ) 15 j where additionally: grem j = groundwater at location j h j-1 = on-farm water efficiency at location j 279

280 ERSEC conference proceeding β = recharge rate Eq. (7) describes the initial condition for groundwater. Here grem 1 represents the groundwater remaining at location 1 which will be available for the second location; gw 0 represents the groundwater base stock at the head location. The second part is the fraction of groundwater recharged from the first farmer s field. (Since no water recharged from canal is observed at the first location, it is zero). β is defined as the recharge rate for groundwater, tw 1 is the conjunctive water used at the first location, and h is the water efficiency in fields. At last, gw 1 is the groundwater consumption at the first location. Then Eq. (8) gives the change of groundwater stock at any location except the first location. The grem j represents the groundwater remaining from the previous farmer to the next farmer at location j; here j starts from farmer 2. Since β is the recharge rate for groundwater, β a j 1 crem j 1 represents the fraction of water loss from the canal and can be recharged to the aquifer at the location j-1. At any location water can be recharged to the aquifer. The element gw j is the groundwater quantity extracted by an individual farmer at location j. The last fraction β (1 h j ) 15 twj represents the joint water volume, i.e., pumped groundwater and surface water losses from a field, which recharges the groundwater aquifer at location j. 4. Water balances are given for each location and are dynamically modeled by Eq. (6) and (8), which are valid for each location. The two sets of equations serve as the most important constraints in the spatial model. In combination with Eq. (2) and (3), which specify the impact of investments, we can build a comprehensive model on spatial water allocation. 4 Scenarios Analysis and Simulation Results Four scenarios were initially designed to test the impacts of different policy orientations on social welfare and water allocation. The first two scenarios are presented here in detail. In a first scenario we will discuss a base run model, in which public and private investments are endogenous variables, just driven by model optimization. In a second scenario we will analyze the impacts of removal of public investment. It follows the base run model, but public investment has become exogenous to show the importance of internal optimization. In the third and fourth scenarios we have focused on the impacts of price (input and output) regimes, i.e., changes in price and water resource allocation are investigated as dependent on price policy. For the four scenarios social welfare and water efficiency are crucial indicators. They show the performance of policies. Furthermore, as a side objective, we can show the capability of the model to handle policy relevant issues as related to improving water efficiency and welfare in watersheds and as being dependent, for instance, on price and investment policies. Scenarios show costs for the public to foster water efficiency and differ according to priorities set by 280

281 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management farmers and a government. Since hydrologic coefficients such as soil permeability affect the optimality of private and public investments as well as policies, scenarios are contingent on the characteristics of natural science and agronomic conditions. A: Base run model of low soil permeability, endogenous public and private investment (K) LSEK As a base run scenario this model is used firstly as a benchmark with which other scenarios can be compared to quantify, for instance, the likely effects of the status quo of public investment and price regimes. Notice carefully, public investments in the later presented scenario are fixed or nil. Any changes modelled in other scenarios depend on the same coefficients. The public investment K and private investment Ι are endogenous variables in the LSEK scenario. The recharge rate for groundwater is 0.3, which is at a low permeability rate, and we operate 200 potential locations. Essential model results are presented in Table 1 which shows drastic changes if other policies occur. B: Low soil permeability, endogenous private but removed public investment (K1) LSRK1 To analyze the impacts of the public investment status, we have secondly modeled a removal of public investment in a separate scenario, which is a revised base run model (for any other scenario it is kept the same). Zero public investment indicates that governments will do nothing to improve the water conveyance efficiency in the irrigation system. Canal quality remains at the status quo; so we see water moving, but no efficiency gains. Interpretation results of both scenarios are in Table 1. Table 1: Comparison of indicators between base run model scenario (LSEK) and a removal of public investment scenario (LSRK1) Items LSRK1 LSEK % Social welfare (Yuan) 612, ,065, Total canal water consumption (m 3 ) 66, , Total groundwater consumption (m 3 ) 96, , Total water consumption (m 3 ) 162, , Capacity of water supply (m 3 ) 301, , Gain from conjunctive water use (m 3 ) -138, , Total public investment (Yuan) , Switch point (Location) Canal water length (m) Area irrigated by canal water (Mu) Area irrigated by groundwater (Mu) Total private investment (Yuan)

282 ERSEC conference proceeding Note: LSRK1: It indicates a removal of public investment under low soil permeability scenario, which is run under low soil permeability, exogenous public investment and endogenous private investment; LSEK: It indicates the base run scenario, which is run under low soil permeability, endogenous public and private investment. In the scenario LSRK1 a removal of public investment leaves only 0.6 million Yuan of social welfare; this is a decrease of 43.4% as compared to a social welfare of 1.06 million in the base run scenario LSEK. This change means that farmers can approximately buy half the food as compared to LSEK. This is a tremendous negative impact on food security. Total canal water consumption declines sharply due to less water availability in the canal, i.e., 77.99% of the canal water is lost due to a poorly operating conveyance system. Besides the positive aspect of recharging groundwater, it is possible that certain amounts of lost water increase the possibility of water logging in the head of the project area, especially close to the canal head. However, that depends on the permeability rate. As in reality groundwater becomes a major water source. Canal water is only available until 1.8 km as compared to 8.2 km in LSEK. Because the use of groundwater versus canal water is very expensive, especially at the tail, many farmers incur higher water prices. This is the major reason why an increase of groundwater use deteriorates the entire social welfare so much. As a fairly general result it can be concluded that a poorly managed canal system (nil public investment) results in a huge water loss and water logging. The above indicators strongly suggest that a removal of public support for water conveyance under modest soil permeability will largely hamper the social economy as well as worsen the allocation of water resources, and additionally increase the possibility of water logging.. Water remaining, m Groundwater remaining.lsrk1 Groundwater remaining.lsek Location, 50m Figure 3: Comparison of groundwater remaining between base run model scenario (LSEK)and a removed public investment scenario (LSRK1) 282

283 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 3 describes the different movements of groundwater along a canal and remaining under different scenarios in a spatial framework in the canal. In LSEK, there has been canal water available until the canal reaches location 164, thanks to heavy public investment. Before location 164, as shown in Figure 3, the groundwater stock is recharged permanently by water which is permeating from farmers fields instead of a public canal, as no water leakage happens. Simultaneously no groundwater extraction occurs. Consequently the groundwater stock reaches its peak at location 164, and then it starts to fall from location 165. In other words, at a distance of 8.2 km (from 10 km), farmers start to take groundwater. In scenario LSRK1, the availability of water (canal and ground water) changes. It is apparent that the curvature of the groundwater stock, as a remaining curve, in LSEK1 is much deeper than that of scenario LSEK. Figure 3 also demonstrates that the groundwater stock is recharged very quickly due to double losses of water from the canal (conveyance losses) and farms (irrigation losses). However, some water can be recovered, apparently, at high costs of pumping groundwater. The net loss depends on the hydrology. Both, base run model and public investment scenario, suggest that public investment plays an important role in water saving and improving social welfare. By removing public investment from water conveyance heavy losses occur, and social welfare and water resource allocation get worse. However one might notice that the private investments have not been observed in both scenarios. A major reason is that high costs of equipment and low returns make private investment unreasonable under the given pricing of apples. To show the potential for further policy analysis, we have extended the base run model. Two price regime change scenarios were designed. One was a high output price for apple; one was a high output and high cost of water. Only some key results are mentioned here due to space limitation. The detailed simulation process and model results can be found in Fang (Fang, 2004). In both latter cases the model showed considerable private investments. As compared to base run model LSEK, the scenarios give potential changes in the social economy and water resource allocation by price regime changes. Private investments are chosen endogenously above zero. Especially the high output and input price scenario shows a remarkable improvement of water use efficiency. The performance indicators strongly suggest that a high water price is one of the most important incentives for farmers to invest in water saving technology; but only the availability of financial resources ensures such investment. 5 Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Work Based on the model and simulation results, the following conclusions can be obtained: 283

284 ERSEC conference proceeding (1) Public investment plays a very important role in water saving activities, securing social welfare and reduces the negative externality of water loss. The results of the modeling suggest that governments should make great efforts to improve water use efficiency and to avoid negative externalities, stabilize output prices and introduce a cost effective recovering of canal and water conveyance costs. (2) The study unveils a complementary relationship between public and private investment. With regards to effects of water efficiency and reducing negative external effects, both investments will reduce water losses if the economic environment is conducive to investments. Good investments systems lower the water costs for farmers, so they can have more financial possibilities to adopt modern irrigation technologies. Broadly speaking, well adopted modern irrigation technologies will result in less water consumption and leave more water for farmers downstream, and water logging can be reduced. More farmers can benefit from public water conveyance systems if investments occur. Consequently the overall water efficiency and environment will improve. (3) A high water price is a good incentive for farmers to adopt modern water saving technology. However, for a government, it is also crucial to set a reasonable water price. Such a price should encourage farmers to adopt new technology, reduce the threat of water loss and not do damage to farmers interests (welfare). The presented study could not address all important issues related to social welfare and clean environment. But the model is an essential cornerstone to qualify policies. There is a need for more work and future research, especially in terms of adjusting and extending the model to relevant questions, such as the dynamics of investment, valuing negative externalities, etc. Some remarks for further investigations are to be made. (1) The spatial water allocation model of the present study is actually a static spatial programming model, in which a moving-water-flow approach has been used to model water allocation along a canal given one time period. No time-lag is considered while recharging to the groundwater aquifer. A more detailed study should consider the above mentioned aspects. Furthermore, the effects of private and public investment were simulated statically, taking annual cost rather than the investment as a dynamic problem. To be concise we have to double the dimension to time and space. A meaningful future work could be centered on the movement of water and investments over time and location changing simultaneously. (2) The investigation is based on a field survey. The modelled area is still relatively small. By enlarging the irrigation area, the model could be more broadly used for some larger irrigation projects. Furthermore, this study has been carried out by investigating a single crop to simplify the model approach. However, since it is a programming approach, multi-cropping patterns can also be incorporated in future work. That aspect would bring in the water use efficiency of different crops and show further interaction between water savings due to better spatial allocation, due to technology 284

285 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management adoption and due to revising cropping matters. Hence, though water is already at the limit, China may have a big potential to use its water more efficiently. References 1. Bureau of Water Resources of Liquan County, 1999, Annals Of Water Resources of Liquan County. 2. Cai, X., Ringler, C., Rosegrant, M. W., 2001, Does Efficient Water Management Matter? Physical and Economic Efficiency of Water Use in the River Basin. 72. Washington, D.C., IFPRI. EPTd. Discussion paper No Caswell, M., Zilberman, D., 1985, The Choices of Irrigation Technologies in California, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, May: Chakravorty, U., Hochman, E., Zilberman, D., 1995, Spatial Model of Optimal Water Conveyance. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 29: Chiang,A. C., 1992, Elements of Dynamic Optimization. McGraw-Hill. 6. China-Spain Water Forum, 2007, China. 7. Dellink, R., Szonyi, J., Bartelings, H., 2001, GAMS- For Environmental - Economic Modelling. Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, University of Wageningen, the Netherlands. Manuscript. 8. Fang, L., 2004, A Spatial Water Allocation Model (SWAM) For Water Efficiency and Irrigation Technology 9. Choices. A Case Study from North-western China.Margraf Publishers GmbH. 10. Brooke, A., Kenderick, D. Meerhaus, A., 1998, General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Washington Hellergers, P., Zilberman, D., van Ierland, E., 2001, Dynamics of Agricultural Groundwater Extraction. 13. Ecological Economics 37, Keller, A. A., Keller, J., Seckler, D., 2001, Integrated Water Resource System: Theory and Policy Implications International Irrigation Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka. 15. Lau, L. J., 1978, Applications of Profit Functions. In: Fuss, M. and McFadden, D., Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications. North-Holland. 16. McCarl, B. A., 2002, GAMS User Guide: Washington. 17. McKinney, D. C. and Savitsky, A. G., 2003, Basic Optimization Models For Water And Energy Management Ministry of Water Resources of P. R. China, Communique on Water Resource in 2006, China. 19. Office of Water Resources Management of Liquan County, 1993, Evaluation and Utilization of Water Resources in Liquan County. 20. Pindyck, R. S., Rubinfeld, D. L., 1998, Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. Auckland 285

286 ERSEC conference proceeding 21. Ray, I., Williams, J., 1999, Evaluation of Price Policy In The Presence Of Water Theft. Amer. J. Agr. Econ , Rosegrant, M. W., Gazmui, S. R., 1994, Reforming Water Allocation Policy through Markets in Tradable Water Rights: Lessons from Chile, Mexico, and California. IFPRI Report. 24. Roseta-Palma, C., 2002, Groundwater Management When Water Quality Is Endogenous. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 44, Seckler, D., Molden, D., Barker, R., 1999, Water Scarcity in the Twenty-First Century. Colombo, Sri Lanka, 26. International Water Management Institute. 27. Umetsu, C., Chakravorty, U., 1998, Water Conveyance, Return Flows And Technology Choice. Agricultural 28. Economics: The Journal of the International Association of Agricultural Economics 19, Varian, H.R., 1984, Microeconomic Analysis. New York. 286

287 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Public Land Leasehold Tenure Approaches A Way towards an Efficient and Effective Land Use Management 公共土地租赁管业权途径 一条切实可行的土地使用管理方法 Dirk Löhr Environmental Campus Birkenfeld, University of Applied Sciences Trier, Germany Abstract The People s Republic of China faces rapid economic growth. Consequences are environmental and land use problems. More and more fertile land is lost due to hardly controllable urbanization tendencies, accompanied by urban sprawl. In the cities land is more and more an object of speculation. Distribution conflicts are coming up. Poor migrant workers and their families are forced into the slums at the margin of the cities. But the rapid change with all the connected problems also opens a big opportunity: Alternative institutional designs of land use might be tested. There is the possibility to learn from mistakes that western countries have made. An interesting alternative approach to deal with land use problems is leasehold. A precondition is common property or state property on land. Referring to this, with the existing property rights system China has better starting conditions than western countries. Western states made the experience that rights due to the value of land and due to the rent of land have many disturbing impacts as well on land use planning and on land use management. Although private use of land is certainly more efficient than public land use, exclusive private rights due to the value of land or the land rent are not necessary. Valid leasehold rights may have similar characteristics as specified property rights, while at the same time they avoid the disadvantages of specified property. An appropriate common property leasehold regime (that is combined, e.g., with an auction system) might skim off the ground rent completely. Hence, with the land rent, also the economic value of land is transferred into the hand of the public or the state. Without ground rent, land is worthless for privates; speculation does not make sense anymore. A necessary precondition for proper land use is a sound plan, which contains compromises 287

288 ERSEC conference proceeding between ecological, economic and social requirements. Such plans are necessary to avoid suburbanization, urban sprawl tendencies and the destruction of scarce, fertile farm land. Experiences of western countries show that even good land use plans are thwarted by privates, hoping to increase and collect the land rent ( rent seeking ). But as a consequence of a common property leasehold regime, land use planning becomes neutral and objective: No private bagging of ground rent and land value is possible. Attempts at corrupting local authorities are useless. Western industrialized states suffer from undesirable developments in land use such as speculation, hoarding of sites, suburbanization, urban sprawl, underused sites, brownfields and destruction of agricultural land. Complete ownership titles are strong supporters of these trends. Therefore, brushwood of public law regulations is needed to dilute the owners property rights nevertheless, the effects of these regulations are meager. We show how a proper working leasehold tenure system gives economic pressure to the privates to do what the planning authorities want them to do without using monsters of public law regulations, as western states have currently. In a sound leasehold tenure system, private users have an incentive to use the sites in compliance with the land use plans. They will not hoard, not speculate and so on. Because the privates get economic incentives to comply with the plans, further dilution of rights to use the land is not necessary. In addition, in a proper working leasehold system the privates get access to land without acquisition costs. Access to land without capital is an important relief for investors, especially in big cities. In respect to social targets, the leasehold system can also be combined with a redistribution regime of the leasehold payments. By redistributing the payments to the people in equal shares, the average land use is free for everyone and as a result also low income families are able to afford comfortable flats instead of living in slums in the suburbs of the cities. Good land use policy will cause higher land rents and leases. The same holds for higher demand for land due to economic growth. Especially poor people might suffer from this. But in a redistribution system, the volume of redistributed payments also increases due to scarcity. Hence, e.g. poor migrant workers don t lose due to shortages made by the authorities plan. In opposition to the proposals of western main stream economists, we appeal to the Chinese authorities not to follow the western blueprint, but to promote the actual system of granted land use rights. 摘要中国经济正在快速增长, 由此也带来了环境和土地利用的问题 伴随着城市扩张而来的难以控制的城市化趋势导致越来越多的可耕地正在流失 城市土地更多地被作为投机对象 土地分配冲突层出不穷 贫穷的民工及其家庭只能生活在城市边缘的贫民区 但是, 这样快速的变化及其所引起的一系列相关问题也带来了巨大的机遇 : 即可以尝试不同的土地使用制度设计方案 288

289 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 我们还可以从西方国家所犯的错误中吸取教训 其中一个处理土地使用问题的办法就是租赁 其前提条件是土地是公有财产或国有财产 在这一点上, 根据现有的产权制度, 中国比西方国家具备更好的初始条件 据西方国家的经验, 土地所有权和土地租赁权对土地使用规划和土地管理有很多影响 尽管私有土地使用确实比公共土地使用更有效, 但土地私有权对土地价值和土地租赁不是必要的条件 有效租赁权既与特殊所有权相似, 同时也避免了特殊所有权的不足之处 一个适当的公共财产租赁制度 ( 比如可以与拍卖制度相结合的公共财产租赁制度 ) 可以完全摒除土地租赁 因此, 土地的经济价值包括土地的租金就转移到了公共领域或国家手中 纯粹的土地租赁对于私人而言不具备任何价值, 所以投机行为也就失去的意义 合理的土地使用的必要前提是要有一个全面的计划, 它涵盖了生态 经济和社会三者之间的需求和谐 这样的规划对延缓城市化趋势 避免城市扩张和可耕地流失是非常必要的 西方国家的经验表明, 即使是好的土地使用规划也会被期望增加和占有更多土地租赁权 ( 寻租 ) 的私人所阻碍 但是公共财产租赁制度的结果使得土地利用规划变得中立而且客观 : 私人进行土地租赁和占有土地价值也就没有可能 在这种情况下, 行贿地方政府的行为亦毫无意义 西方工业国家也经历了土地使用的负面影响, 例如投机买卖, 囤积土地, 城市化, 城市扩张, 土地未充分利用, 工业占用土地和对工业土地的破坏 完全的财产权会会加速上述趋势的恶化 所以需要众多的法律法规来削弱私人财产所有权 然而这些法律法规制度的效果微乎其微 我们指出一个运转良好的租赁体系是如何给私人施加经济压力, 促使他们去做规划权利机构希望他们去做的事 而不需要像当今西方国家那样, 依靠使用法律法规制度来维持 : 在一个健全合理的土地租赁体系中, 私人有动机使用土地, 但同时又能符合土地使用规划 他们不会囤积土地或投机买卖等 因为私人在经济利益的驱使下而服从土地利用规划, 更进一步的消减土地使用权就没有必要了 另外, 在一个运转良好的租赁体系中, 私人可以获得土地而不必承担其购置成本 尤其在大城市, 无需资本而获得土地是一种重要的环节措施 根据社会目标, 租赁体系也可以和租赁所得的再分配制度相结合 通过将租赁所得进行平等再分配, 即每个人都可以平均使用土地, 结果使得低收入家庭负担得起舒适的公寓, 而不必住在市郊的贫民区 好的土地使用政策会提高土地租金和租期 经济增长同样会引起更多的土地需求 贫困的人会因此遭受利用损失 但是在一个再分配体系里, 租赁所得再分配的规模不断增长 因此, 即便在权利机构规划失误的情况下, 民工也不会遭受损失 尽管有西方主流经济学的种种提议, 我们呼吁中国政府不要盲从西方的蓝图, 而是应该发扬现有的土地使用权体系 1 The Current Situation in China The People s Republic of China faces rapid economic growth. Consequences of this 289

290 ERSEC conference proceeding growth are environmental and land use problems. Only some examples: Fertile land is lost due to hardly controllable urbanization tendencies, accompanied by urban sprawl. The cities growth is without regard to the needs of water supply. In the cities land is more and more an object of speculation. The restructuring of cities causes social problems. Poor migrant workers and their families are forced into the slums at the margin of the cities. In the countryside, farmers do not have reliable rights to use the land. But the rapid change with all the connected problems also opens a big opportunity: Alternative institutional designs of land use might be advanced and developed. China has the possibility to cut its own path, learning from mistakes that western countries made. In contrast to China, the possibilities for efficient change management in western countries are limited, because institutions are strongly consolidated. An interesting alternative approach to deal with land use problems is a proper leasehold tenure system. A precondition is common property or even better - state property on land. Referring to this, China has much better starting conditions than western countries. After 1978, China has adopted a land use rights tenure system similar to the land leasehold tenure system in western countries. Under China s Land Administration Law, which was firstly drafted in 1986 and amended in 1998, basically the state owns all urban land, while farmer collectives own all rural land. The land ownership and land use rights may be separated, and the state remains the land owner and local government may transfer the land use rights on behalf of the state. The text below refers to urban land as well as on rural land. It will give some general ideas that might serve as helpful suggestions for the current discussion about changing the land property rights system in China. Some remarks refer to the article of Tiening Cui in this book. 1.1 Property rights, land rent and land value: basic assertion Economists often group property rights (as developed under Roman law) as follows: the right to transfer the right to others, either by inheritance, gift, or sale, and to receive the selling price (alienation, ius abutendi ) the right to appropriate the return of the asset ( usus fructus ), including earning income or rent of it the right to change its form, substance and location ( abusus ), which includes many decision-making rights such as management (to modify and transfer a resource, e.g. by planting trees, enlarging a canal, etc.), exclusion (to determine who else may use the resource) the right to use the asset ( usus ), which can include rights of access (to enter the resource domain) and withdrawal (to remove something, e.g. to extract 290

291 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management kindling).8 The first two types of rights are related to return and value, the last two rights to the control and use of the asset. Table 1: Property rights elements (in an economic interpretation) Exclusive rights, due to Value and rent Control and use Right to sell the asset and to Right to control and to change the Asset (stock) participate from its value asset according to the needs (latin: ( alienation, latin: ius abutendi ) abusus ) Utility (flow) Right to appropriate the return of the asset (latin: usus fructus ) Right to use the asset (latin: usus ) These property rights might be bundled or separated. They might either be allocated to the privates or to the community / state. In this regard we have to distinguish: A complete private ownership title is generally interpreted as holding all four sets of rights. 9 Though this complete title is the normal case in western states, the ownership titles especially for land are also weakened in western states in order to respect the interests of the public (e.g. rights of ways, requirements for planning and building permission, etc.) In contrast to a complete title, an ideal public leasehold system may be characterized by unbundling the property rights in a prudential way (as we have to discuss below) What is the connection between the property rights framework and land use policy? Good land use policy has to be a policy for sustainability.10 Referring to land use, sustainability means: to make good land use plans and to look for compliance to the plans (effectiveness of land use policy) to maximize the utility of the land over time for the whole society (efficiency) to provide access to the land for every citizen (social aspect) Referring to this, our assertion is: On the one hand, in a good land use system the rights to control and use the land 8 M. Di Gregorio / K. Hagedorn / M. Kirk / B. Korf / N. McCarthy / R. Meinzen-Dick / B. Swallow, Property Rights (2004): Collective Action and Poverty: The Role of Institutions for Poverty Reduction, Paper prepared fort he Tenth Biennial Conference oft he International Association fort he Study of Common Property (IASCP), Oaxaca Mexico, 9-13 / August, p DiGregorio_Property_040702_Paper443.pdf 9 S. Pejovich (1990): The economics of property rights: Towards a theory of comparative systems. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.- R. Cooter / T. Ulen. Law and economics. 2 ed. New York (Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers) World Commission on Environment and Development (1987): Our Common Future, Oxford / New York, S. XV. 291

292 ERSEC conference proceeding ( usus and, to a certain degree, also abusus ; see the right column in the table above) should be in private hands. Particularly strong private rights to use the land ( usus ) are essential. Privates are generally better managers than the state. The local management of resources is superior to a central management (see also Tiening Cui s comments in this book referring to the need of a local resource management and strong use-rights). On the other hand, land use policy will be presumably handicapped, if the rights due to the value and the rent (left column in the table above) are completely in private hands. Particularly the right to appropriate the return of the asset (latin: usus fructus ) proves to be a problem, if it is in private hands. Considering ius abutendi, as well the right to transfer this usus fructus is a disturbing factor in land use policy. Analyzing the problems of privatization of these rights (due to value and rent) as the most important disturbing factor is a key for proper land use policy. Even if despite a complete privatization of these rights (in the left column) an effective and efficient land use policy could be practiced, the social impacts would be unacceptable. We want to emphasize that this statement only holds for non renewable resources such as land, but not for normal, easily reproducible and substitutable assets (e.g. machines, cars, furniture). This leads to the subsequent design as a precondition for a good land use policy: Table 2: Property rights target design Exclusive rights, due to Value and rent Control and use ius abutendi : Predominantly abusus : As few as possible public (for giving restrictions to the use), as Asset (stock) public, partially private much as possible private (allowing (transferring usus -rights) private entrepreneurship) Utility (flow) usus fructus : Public! usus : Strong private rights! Whereas full specification and privatization of property rights on land (due to value and return) causes problems for a proper land use policy, a properly designed leasehold tenure system is able to harmonize the potential conflict areas of goals of efficiency (economics), effectiveness (planning, ecological aspects) and distribution (access to the land). Public leasehold tenure systems can be made with rural, agricultural land as well as with urban land (settlement). We want to discuss how a proper leasehold tenure system for land has to be shaped to reach the sustainability goals. Basically, we are emphatically opposed to Property Rights theorists such as Demsetz11, who considers complete specification and privatization of property rights as a precondition for efficiency. 11 H. Demsetz (1967): Towards a theory of property rights, in: American Economic Review, 57 /1967, S

293 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management To make our findings comprehensive, we have to give first a certain theoretical understanding about land rent and land value. Subsequently we will discuss the design and the effects of a proper leasehold tenure system. 1.2 Theory of value (I): Land rent, land value and good land use policy - some theoretical backgrounds The land rent is considered to be an extra profit, due to differences to the favorable location (J. H. v. Thünen12), the quality of land (David Ricardo13) or due to differences in the intensity of cultivation or use. These sights, originally created for agriculture land, can be applied for any kind of land by making some modifications. For a rented urban site, the different yield approach might be illustrated as follows (the numbers are fictive, but related to the German real estate market): DCF / sqm, costs Discounted cash flows (DCF), e.g Discounted Land rent = residual value e.g. 500 Costs of setting up the building Land: e.g. 100 Costs of setting up the building e.g e.g Central city Remote city DCF, e.g Figure 1: Explanation of the land value as discounted differences of yields The value of land is explained above as the excess of the discounted cash flows (future current revenues minus current costs of operation) over the (discounted) costs of putting up a building (residual value approach). In the figure above, the same kind of commercial property building (more or less the same production costs) is set up on two different sites: The left is a site in the center of a big city (e.g. Berlin or Beijing); the right is a site in a remote town. The costs for setting up a building with a certain quality standard are nearly the same in the big city and in the remote town; in the example one square meter costs On the other hand, the demand (and consequently the 12 J. H. v. Thünen (1926): Der isolirte Staat in Beziehung auf Landwirthschaft und Nationalökonomie, oder Untersuchungen über den Einfluß, den die Getreidepreise, der Reichtum des Bodens und die Abgaben auf den Ackerbau ausüben, Hamburg (Perthes). 13 D. Ricardo (1817): On the Priciples of Political Economy and Taxation, third edition, London (John Murray). 293

294 ERSEC conference proceeding discounted revenues, the bid rents of the users, etc.) differs from location to location. In a big city, the discounted cash flows are / sqm, in the remote city only / sqm. The difference is the willingness to pay for the discounted land rent. This is 500 / sqm ( ) in the big city and 100 ( ) in the remote town. Therefore, from a simplified point of view (later we will complete the theory), the value of land V may be calculated as the net present value NPV of the residual cash flow of the site: V = NPV = DCF ; I 0 DCF is the discounted cash flow and I 0 are the costs for setting up a building. Because the difference between DCF (2.000 / sqm and accordingly / sqm) and I 0 (1.500 / sqm in both cases) is higher in the big city, the (residual) value of land is also higher than in the remote town (500 / sqm and accordingly 100 / sqm). The formula above might be modified as follows: V i = R and R V = i This formula shows the value of land as the sustainable land rent R discounted by the (long term) interest rate i, using the formula of an endless rent (the useful life of land is endless). 14 Let s assume according to German data that i is ca. 5 %. The land rent in the big city would be 500 / sqm x 5 % p.a. = 25 / sqm p.a. and in the remote town it would be 100 / sqm x 5 % = 5 / sqm p.a. The formula holds for such land that is covered with a new building. Below we will show that this formula has to be extended in order to get a more proper idea about the value of other kinds of land (especially of undeveloped land). The considerations above lead to two conclusions: a. Already from this simplified version above we can derive a definition about what good land use policy should be: Good land use policy means to maximize the 14 If R is rising e.g. because of inflation or rising income, this dynamic can be shown by lowering i R i g by a growth rate g. Hence, V =. In our example below we don t discuss the issue of risk premium as a surcharge on the interest rate. 294

295 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management sustainable land rent.15 This has two different aspects: To maximize the sustainable land rent potential. This is a task for the land use planning. Sustainable means that land use planning has not only to take the short sight. Maximizing the land rent potential also means optimizing the utility of land use and the value of the land. Land use planning has to make compromises between different stakeholders and different aspects (social, ecological, economical, cultural needs). Such a plan is particularly necessary to avoid suburbanization, urban sprawl tendencies and the destruction of scarce, fertile farm land. Land use planning means to manage a multidimensional system that cannot be expressed and controled only in monetary terms it is much more than only an economic task. Furthermore, land use planning should leave as much freedom as possible for privates in order to encourage private entrepreneurship. On the other hand, planning has to set restrictions, where externalities might occur (see the abusus -right in Table 2). Hence, land use planning is acting always in conflict fields; a precondition for a good land use planning is the protection from private influence. Unlike land use planning, land use management (in a narrower sense) operates mainly in the economic dimension: It has to make sure that the sustainable land rent potential (created by the land use planning) is exhausted as far as possible. The value, created by the planning, has to be realized by exploiting the rent as far as possible according to the planners decisions. Figure 2: Criteria for good land use policy b. In a working market economy costs and benefits should be allocated to those who caused them. For instance, if one person has the costs, another person takes the benefits, externalities occur, and the result is market failure. However, changes of the land rent are mostly caused by the public. For example, a new highway (set up with public money), that connects a remote area lowers the distance to the next big city and therefore increases the rent due to the location; a new (public) development plan allows a more intensive use of a site and therefore a higher yield, etc. In a completely private 15 M. Pfannschmidt (1990): Vergessener Faktor Boden Marktgerechte Bodenbewertung und Raumordnung, Lütjenburg, S

296 ERSEC conference proceeding property regime, the benefits (higher land rents and higher value of the land) are taken by privates, whereas the activities are done and paid by the public / state. Therefore, a completely private property regime must lead to market failures; it is anything but efficient. A completely private property regime also must have impacts on the planning system. 1.3 Why do private property rights due to value and rent cause negative impacts on land use planning? Often, maximizing the value of the property of the commonwealth is not the same as maximizing the sum of the values of the individual properties. In a private ownership system, some private owners may have interests that contradict those of the community. Experiences of western countries show that even good land use plans are thwarted by privates. Some of them simply want to live on big, comfortable sites, others hope to collect the land rent ( rent seeking ) and increase the value of their sites. The first motive (a consumers motive) costs the society much money (infrastructure costs, etc. depend highly on the density of settlement16) and also causes external costs.17 The second intention (an investors motive) is strongly related to land speculation, which has to be named as one of the central drivers for the rededication of farm land to settlement areas. For example, in Germany, very often farmers try to influence the authorities to change the dedication of farmland to settlement areas. The land rent and the value of settlement areas are roughly 10 to 20 times higher than those of farmland.18 As a consequence, farmers may become get millionaires overnight, if their lobbying is successful. But a new development area often means a less efficient use of the old cores of the cities; people go out to the cheaper developing areas, the cores of the cities are losing attractiveness and begin to rot. The loss of the community is often higher than the increase in value of the lobbyists land. For the rural areas of China, Tiening Cui prefers village committees acting as administrators and representatives of the central state. This arrangement is highly responsive due to the better information and understanding of the local specifics. But even such a design could lead to speculation, if the members of such village committees abuse their power and violate the interests of the farmers. If the right for privates to take the rent and the value is kept up, this problem will remain even if the formal property is shifted from the collectives to the central government. 16 Cf. Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning) / Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung (Federal Ministry for Transport, Building and Urban Affairs) (Ed.) (2006): Infrastrukturkostenrechnung in der Regionalplanung, H. 43 / Bonn. 17 Among other impacts, biodiversity is reduced and fertile land is destroyed. 18 In recent times a change of the relative prices happened due to the risen prices of agricultural products. 296

297 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management But how could these malpractices be avoided (that includes lobbying and sometimes corruption activities)? Simply stronger laws are not enough. The experiences in western states show that lobbying is often acting in a grey area between legality and illegality; in most instances nobody is interested in prosecuting the parties concerned, and even if, there is not enough proof for such kind of activities. More promising is the change of the incentive structure, In case, the land rent is always skimmed off completely by the authorities, privates will not have any incentive to impact land use planning, e.g., by lobbying or corruption: If the land rent goes completely to the public, also the value of the land for the privates is always equal to zero, no difference, if it is either farmland or settlement area. In contrast, if the usus fructus right is left to privates, and if privates are allowed to take the rent and value, an incentive for lobbying and corruption activities also will be perpetuated. This holds even if the land titles officially belong to the state. 1.4 Theory of value (II): Why do private property rights due to value and rent cause negative impacts on land use management? Above we explained preliminarily the value of the land as the discounted land rent. This formula holds especially for land covered with new buildings. Although this may explain much, it is not the whole truth. For instance, it cannot explain the characteristics of the value of land covered with elder buildings and of undeveloped land. It also cannot explain completely the value of land that is subject to speculation. Finally it cannot explain that even land without any actual economic use (not as farmland, not for settlement or transport purposes, not as resource retention area, German: Unland ) has a value that is higher than zero. Obviously, despite the fact that the net present value approach gives a certain understanding of how prices of land emerge, it has serious shortcomings. It does not take into account special characteristics particularly of unimproved land: Land can be considered as a (real) option.19 Let us use urban land as an example. After buying the land, the owner has the possibility, but not the obligation, to do what the planners want him to do (e.g., according to the plans, to erect a building). For instance, the owner of a firm, also having the property at a bordering site to his factory, has the option to extend his production activities on the new site, maybe with a new storehouse. With a complete title, he has the individual option, but not the obligation to use the site as the planners want the site be used. He will only comply with the land use plans if the expected cash flows of the investment (e.g., building) are high enough. Otherwise, if the situation is insecure or does not suit his individual expectations, he will postpone his investment. The site is blocked during his waiting for the right moment to take the chance. Doing so, he might damage the community, because, in fact, due to this blockade, the supply of land is running short and the 19 Cf. A.S. Holland / S.H. Ott / T.J. Riddiough (2000): The Role of Uncertainty in Investment: An Examination of Competing Investment Models Using Commercial Real Estate Data. Real Estate Economics 28, Cf. abstracts_2002.html. 297

298 ERSEC conference proceeding scarcity of land increases. However, for an individual investor the acquisition of unimproved land is the key (low initial investment) for a modular investment strategy (capital intensive follow-up investment). The flexibility to wait for the suitable moment, to extend etc. in an insecure world has a value and can be modelled as a call-option. Hence, in contrast to the opinion of Ricardo s followers, the value of unoccupied land cannot be explained only from the discounted land rent ( passive capital value ), as we did above. According to the real option perspective, the present value (discussed above) perspective has to be completed by the value of the investments flexibility F : V = NPV + F( t, σ, i, d) = ( DCF I 0 ) + F( t, σ, i, d) = R + F( t, σ, i, d) i In the real option approach F is a function of the duration t, the volatility "σ ", the interest rate i and the dividend d. The longer the duration, the longer lasts the possibility that the option will be in the money. Hence, the higher the value of F will be. A complete private ownership title is an endless option. Therefore, the value of F is relatively high. Investment in land is a classical strategy to cope with insecurity: the owner of the option benefits from the chances; on the other hand he can avoid the losses (by default of the follow-up investment). Because of this asymmetric structure, volatility means only a chance to him. Thus, the higher the insecurity, the amplitudes of returns "σ ", the higher the value of F will be.20 As mentioned above, investment in land is a key for a profitable follow-up investment (foremost a building). As long as the follow-up investment is not made, the money can be invested in other assets. Therefore, the higher the interest rate, the higher F. A special parameter is the so called dividend. The higher the dividend, the lower is F. It works in the opposite direction as the other parameters mentioned above. Considering a financial option, the holder of the option right does not have the rights to the asset itself (e.g., company). If a dividend is paid, the payment flows to the owner of the company, not to the owner of the option. Therefore, the asset and the option right lose value. Dividend payments mean opportunity costs for keeping up the option (e.g., not buying the share). The idea might be transferred to the real option approach. Impacts such as competition to a site, e.g., from new developing areas, might be modeled as dividend.21 According to Copeland / Antikarov, the net present value calculation is only a special case of dynamic investment calculation with F = 0, but in practise, F = 0 hardly ever happens.22 Hence, the real option approach with F 0 is the general approach. 20 But, we will show that despite the hoarding behavior spends individual security it causes insecurity for the public (difficult access to land). 21 Cf. D. Löhr (2006): Flächenhaushaltspolitik via Grundsteuerreform gibt es einen Königsweg? Ein Versuch, Working Paper No. 3 des Zentrums für Bodenschutz und Flächenhaushaltspolitik am Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld (ZBF-UCB), May, pp T. Copeland / V. Antikarov (2001): Real options A Practioner s Guide, New York / London (Texere), S

299 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management The formula above shows that (in a simple interpretation) the value of a project is the value of the added possibilities, the value of the flexibility to postpone the project ( F ) plus the value of striking the option, this means the discounted cash flows of the project (if it is executed; DCF or R / i ). In conjunction ( R / i + F ) the term is called extended net present value 23. For simplification let us continue with our urbanland-example above and let us assume that the value of F is half of the net present value. Considering a big city, the net present value of one square meter of land is 500 and the flexibility advantage has a value of 250 / sqm. But in fact, the investor never can realize the net present value NPV of a project and the value of flexibility F of postponing the project at the same time: If the investor sets up a building on unimproved land, he strikes the option. This means, he loses the value of the flexibility, thus, F becomes negative. This means, in our case, the investor has additional costs of 250 / sqm. Therefore the investor will only make the follow-up investment if the discounted cash flows are high enough to give him (besides a market conformed rate of return) also a compensation for the loss of flexibility: DCF [ I 0 + F( t, σ, i, d)] 0 ; Therefore, a high compensation for F is an additional obstacle for a profitable investment in real estate (see below). Also the selling of an unimproved site can be considered as the selling of an option. The seller gives up future chances. Hence, he will only do so if he gets also a compensation for the loss of the flexibility advantage (here: 250 / sqm for a big city site). Very often this compensation requirement that is added to the net present value results in a price that is considered by the buyers as not realistic, and too high, judged by Ricardo s theory and the isolated net present value calculation. Indeed, these prices often are anything but absurd, if the value of the flexibility advantage is considered in addition to the present value of the rent. However, inefficiencies will result if this mark-up cannot be paid anymore. Figure 3 shows the calculation by a potential investor who wants to buy a piece of land from an owner unwilling to sell and who has been hoarding the land. The sales price is 750 / sqm; it is composed of the compensation for the waiving of the discounted land rent (500 / sqm, NPV or passive capital value ) and the option or flexibility value ( F, here: an additional 250 / sqm). The investor on the other hand deducts from the discounted net earnings or cash flows of the investment cost for the building (1.500 / sqm). The residual (500 / sqm) constitutes the ability to pay for the real property. 23 Cf. M. Kilka (1995): Realoptionen Optionspreistheoretische Ansätze bei Investitionsentscheidungen unter Unsicherheit. Frankfurt a.m., p Cf. also realoptions.org/papers 2002/BellalahNPVFin3r.pdf. 299

300 ERSEC conference proceeding Ability to pay (investor) Discounted Cash Flows: / sqm Investment building: / sqm P ayment request (owner / seller) Flexibility mark-up: 250 / sqm Atp.:500 / sqm Discounted land rent: 500 / sqm Figure 3: Calculation of an investor and inefficiencies in the real estate market If the investor, however, can only afford the land rent, but not the mark-up, there is no exchange. Hence, the compensation requirements work like a wedge in the transactions of land. If the required price cannot be paid, the owners prefer to hoard the site and do not sell. An objection against this real option approach in view of the real estate market has been the market s inability to adjust to option price theory, because it is not known to the actors. Sotelo refutes this criticism by, appropriately, stating that economic laws do not depend on the knowledge of the individual actors. It is not even necessary that anybody knows the economical principles.24 The estimate by the Bavarian Ministry for Regional Development and Environment Issues, according to which up to 36 % of inner town brownfields and potential conurbanization areas in the municipalities are still unused25, can give an impression as to how many exchange gains are not exploited and how far the market is from an optimum. These numbers refute the statement of the alleged efficiency of complete private ownership titles. If no exchange happens on the market, the hoarded sites reduce the effective supply for sites. As a consequence, abnormal effects emerge. Generally, if the demand rises in a market economy, the price of commodities will also rise. Considering a normal commodities market, the extra profits give feedback to the suppliers to increase the 24 R. Sotelo (1995): Die WertV ist tot, es lebe die WertV ein finanzierungstheoretischer Vergleich deutscher und angelsächsischer Wertermittlungsmethoden, in: Grundstücksmarkt und Grundstückswert 6 (2), pp Bavarian Interior Ministry and the Bavarian Ministry for Regional Development and Environment Issues, (Bayerisches Staatsministerium des Innern / Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Landesentwicklung und Umweltfragen) (2003): Press release, 07/

301 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management supply. As a result of the supply efforts, finally prices and profits go back to the normal level. However, the real estate market works quite differently. Because the total supply of land is not elastic, the supply of land cannot be increased due to a higher demand. Only the land rent and the price of land are rising. But quite different from other kinds of commodities and services - a rising price often gives incentive to the speculators not to supply more land on the market. Instead of this, the owners often hold back the supply (they hoard the sites) and wait for a further increase of the prices. In option pricing language: NPV is rising due to higher scarcity, and F is rising due to the higher price volatility "σ ". As a result of these sellers market characteristics, the supply runs even shorter and as a result the price increases even more a positive feedback loop! Hence, real estate is a preferred object to speculation: Whereas in Germany the consumer price index rose from 100 to 112 from 1997 to 2005, the price index for unimproved sites nearly doubled (from 100 to 193) at the same time.26 The consequence: Because the value of land is comparatively lower in the periphery of the big cities or in rural areas, there is current evasion to suburbia and urban sprawl - with manifold negative economic, social and ecological consequences. Hence, the reverse of the blocked sites is a higher pressure outwards to develop new sites. More and more agriculture land gets lost in favour for settlement areas. The annual rededication of agricultural land in Germany is nearly as much as 2/3 of the surface of the Bodensee, the biggest inland lake of Switzerland, Austria and Germany and is much more connected to the economic growth than to the demographic development.27 Thus, speculation, empty and hoarded sites, and as a consequence urban sprawl and suburbanization, are a severe problem of land use especially in developed economies. Hence, the complete title-regime is not a good blueprint for the development of the Chinese property rights regime. Nevertheless, emerging markets are also subject to speculation. In China especially Shanghai is affected. But, due to the different system of property rights, speculation has different manifestations compared with western countries. Bu po bu li, the slogan of Mao Tse Dong, meanwhile debauched into the motto of the land speculators of today s Shanghai.28 The displacement of the citizens concerned causes severe problems (for solutions see below). With further economic development similar problems will also affect other Chinese cities, if the system will not be changed. But, if the system is changed according to the western blueprint, China will face the problems described above of hoarding and inefficient use of sites. 26 Federal Statistical Office (2007): Statistical Yearbook 2007 for the Federal Republic of Germany, Wiesbaden, p. 512 and p. 505, own calculations. 27 Cf. D. Löhr (2004): Umgestaltung der Grundsteuer im Rahmen einer effizienten Flächenhaushaltspolitik, in: Zeitschrift für Umweltpolitik und Umweltrecht (Journal of Environmental Law and Policy) 4, pp C. Bommarius (2005): Bu po bu li!, Berliner Zeitung, 12/

302 ERSEC conference proceeding Speculation in China affects also agricultural sites, though agricultural areas are protected highly in China. 29 Hence, there is a certain pressure on the planning authorities in the provinces to rededicate the farm land. 2 How Can a Leasehold Tenure System Support Land Use Policy? Land use policy can only work properly without disturbance by such property rights due to the value and the rent of the land. These property rights (particularly the ususfructus -right in Table 1) have to be transferred as far as possible into the hands of the community (see Table 2). If the privates have no chance any more to take the rent and make use of the flexibility advantage, the disturbances described above will come to an end. Subsequently we want to show how a leasehold tenure system might be used to arrange the transfer of these rights to the state. 2.1 Characteristics of leasehold tenure systems In the P.R. China basically two types of land use rights might be acquired. Besides the allocated land use rights (a kind of tenancy according to the old law, that is mainly used by governmental owned enterprises) privates get granted land use rights (according to new law ). These granted land use rights have many things in common with the German leasehold tenure rights ( Erbbaurecht ). In the usual Chinese leasehold tenure system, the leasehold tenure rights are limited, e.g., by 40 (e.g., hotels), 50 (industrial use) or 70 years (dwelling) and the duration of the contract is according to the presumable economic life of the upstanding building. In Germany, contracts are made up to 99 years. Especially the Roman Catholic Church (as a non-governmental actor) uses this instrument extensively. But also, for instances, the city of Wolfsburg (headquarter of VW) is erected on leasehold, and in the city of Kaiserslautern leasehold is quite common.30 During the leasehold and according to the land use plans, the leaseholder has the right to erect a building (or to use it as a farmland). In the Chinese system, the holder of the right is even obliged to set up a building within a certain range of time therewith speculation in urban sites shall be avoided. In Germany, such restrictions might also be used ( Baugebote ). But the effect of such commands is limited: It does not affect things such 29 The land use plans of the provinces have to be authorized by the central government. The plans have to provide information about rededication plans of agricultural sites. The provinces also have to look for compensation, either in new farm land or in a compensation payment (in a recultivation fund). 30 Regarding possibilities to use leasehold for municipalities see 302

303 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management as speculation with farmland (purpose: rededication to settlement area or concentration in the hand of big investment trusts, as it happens currently in eastern Germany31), it does not stimulate the efficient use of buildings, and it does not prevent negative impacts on planning aspects we will discuss below. Particularly in complete ownership titleregimes (such as in Germany), the application of this instrument is also connected with political and legal trouble. After the leasehold term the leasehold rights go back to the owner of the land (here: state). The leasehold contract might be combined with a privilege of the actual leaseholder to elongate the leasehold contract (German: Vorpachtrecht ). Also the keeper of a granted land use right may elongate the leasehold contract. The Chinese Land Bureaus are instructed to refuse prolongation only in exceptional cases. By elongating the contract, the keeper of the right has to pay anew a purchase price for the elongation of the granted land use right. Concerning this matter, the Chinese granted land use rights show a proper model design. If the contract runs out before the life time of the upstanding building is over, in Germany the leaseholder has to be compensated for the lost value of his building by market value (an assessment of the building has to be made). According to the Chinese law, leaseholders get no or only little compensation. This rule has negative impact on the quality of the leasehold tenure right. It is important to take the market value of the building as a yardstick for the compensation otherwise leasehold rights are considered as being minor compared to complete titles; also insecurity for the investors will be produced and in the end the building is no longer well maintained. a. Classical private ownership b. Leasehold system Common / state property Full private property Figure 4: Leasehold tenure vs. full private property 31 S. Fründt (2008): Höfe der Zukunft Die Planwirtschaft der Milchbauern ist vorbei, in: Die WeltOnline, 06/ Planwirtschaft_der_ Milchbauern_ist_vorbei.html. 303

304 ERSEC conference proceeding In Germany, the leasehold tenure rights might be sold, used as loan security32 etc. insofar as they may have the same functions as a full property right. Hence, solicitors characterize leasehold tenure rights as being equal to property ( eigentumsgleiche Rechte ). Though valid leasehold rights may have similar characteristics as specified, complete ownership titles, they avoid the disadvantages of specified property (see below). Indeed, particularly with strong private use-rights and suitable compensation rules a proper leasehold tenure system may even contribute to strengthen the legal certainty of the users and suit the public needs as well. The leasehold payments in Germany are currently paid in annual or monthly rates. They are calculated at 4 to 6 % of the market value of the site (this corresponds to the interest rate for riskless long term governmental bonds in a situation without abnormal inflation rates). The leasehold payments are adapted from time to time (normally every five years). The Chinese design is as in the Hongkong lease tenure system based on the rent being paid in advance. The price is negotiable, but contains a compensation for the antecessor, external development costs, taxes, fees and a price for the site itself. Different from China, despite its advantages the German leasehold tenure system has not been advanced in the last decades. This concerns especially the way of the current adjusting of the leasehold payments. The main reason for the lack of interest in improving the design is the big standing of complete ownership titles in Germany. 2.2 Skimming off the land rent completely A properly designed leasehold tenure system should be able to skim off approximately the whole land rent (this means for the remaining rent: R 0). Therewith it also reduces the value of flexibility (F 0), because the leasehold payments work like a dividend in a finance option (see ch above). Last but not least, the termination of the leasehold tenure right also gives pressure on the value of F. Therefore, if R 0 and F 0, the value of the site V also approximates to zero (the whole value is transferred into the hand of the state). The consequences are inter alia, no speculation, no hoarding, a more efficient use of the sites, etc. (see more below, in the subsequent chapter). But, a proper working of the leasehold system requires a proper design: The leasehold rights should be issued as far as possible by public auction (with competitive bids). The privates know best about their willingness to pay for the use of the site better than the authorities. Though, an auction is not always 32 In case of security the creditors are only interested in the value of the upstanding building, not in the value of the leasehold tenure right itself. 304

305 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management practical, especially regarding small sites. Thus, in order to lease such sites, authorities should try to asses a leasehold payment that is in line with the land rent (see more below). In the Chinese design the leasehold payments are paid in advance. Especially considering long terminations of the leasehold right, the big disadvantage of a prepayment is the deviation of real market conditions and forecasts. Hence, if the payments are lower than the land rent, the property rights due to value and rent may be valorised again. If no current adaptation of the leasehold payments is stipulated in the system, the relevant site may become subject to speculation again. Another disadvantage of the payments in advance is the capital the investors have to raise. The price for paying the leasehold tenure right in advance might be not far away from the price of full property, especially considering long terminations of the right. If, in contrast, current leasehold payments are required that are in line with the land rent and therefore skim it completely off, the property rights due to value and rent are without value. Hence, an investor gets the access to land for free he has to pay no acquisition costs. This is a relief for privates as well as for enterprises, because the solvency and the credit line are not as much stressed as with a payment of the whole sum in advance. Naturally the difficulty is to bring the current leasehold payments in line with the land rent in order to skim it off completely during the whole time of the leasehold contract. If the land rent is not skimmed off completely over the time of the contract, land may still have a private economic value also in a leasehold tenure system and may still be an object of abuse. If the transfer of leasehold rights between privates is allowed 33, it may serve as a link for a proper assessment of the payments: As told above, leasehold payments that are in line with the land rent are necessary to skim off the whole land rent. As a result the value of the leasehold tenure right is zero. Therefore, if privates transfer the right for nothing, the leasehold payment is set corresponding to the land rent. If privates sell the right for positive values, the leasehold payments are obviously too low; they do not skim off the whole rent. The adaptation of the current payment should be approximately the value of the right multiplied by the long term (riskless) interest rate.34 In order to get the required data, the transfers of the leasehold tenure rights must be registered and analyzed. For this purpose, a network of land registry offices is necessary, on a local as well as on province level. It should be checked whether the existing Land Bureaus in China are able to do this job properly. An important task of these offices should be to assess the sites according to their economic potential in order to set up a detailed 33 Chinese central government wants to allow the transfer of rights in rural areas now. 34 This is a rough recommendation. Indeed, also an adaption according to the duration, possibly the inflation etc. has to be made. 305

306 ERSEC conference proceeding classification of value zones. Germany has had good experiences with assessment committees ( Gutachterausschüsse ) on local, county and state (province) level and thus created a sound data basis. When the leasehold contract runs out, the site has to be given back to the state. The compensation for an upstanding building should be made according to the market value. Giving back the right should also be possible before the end of the contract, if the user is not able to generate the rent (for whatever reasons) any more, and/or cannot sell the right to another private person. Under the design described above, the rights due to value and rent are transferred as far as possible into the hand of the state. 2.3 Consequences for land use policy What are the consequences, if the property rights due to value and rent are transferred to the community as far as possible? Transfer of experiences from land value taxes A leasehold tenure system has similar effects as its little sister, a land value tax. This tax (also called site value tax) is an ad valorem tax where only the value of land itself is taxed. This ignores buildings, improvements and personal property. A land value tax skims off the land rent only partially, whereas a good working leasehold system should be able to skim it off completely. Hence, a leasehold tenure regime works more intensively than a land value tax does. The advantages of a land value tax have often been described and also proved in some cases.35 Hence, we can get some impression about the impacts a proper leasehold tenure system could have. The statements below are derived out of such experiences and descriptions Consequences for land use planning If the land rent is skimmed off completely and the flexibility advantage is devaluated by the current leasehold payments, the economic value of property rights due to value and the rent of land are zero; nobody would be willing to pay for the property rights due to value and rent. For land use planning purposes, leasehold is useful because under these conditions land use planning becomes neutral and objective: No private collecting of land rent and land value is possible any more. Attempts at lobbying and corrupting local authorities are useless. Considering the land use plan development, the plans are not derogated by private interests any more. Western industrialized states had the painful experience that it is often difficult, e.g., to organize a restructuring of townships in order to valorize the cities. Owners have strong property rights and often impede or block the plans, if they do not correspond completely with their individual interests. 35 Cf. D. Löhr (2008): Flächenhaushaltspolitische Varianten einer Grundsteuerreform, Wirtschaftsdienst 2, pp

307 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Though respecting the rights of the private users, a leasehold system gives many possibilities to the authorities for active intervention. Authorities may plan better, particularly a good after use of sites ( circular economy of sites 36) when the term of a lease is finished. For instance, no hoarding of sites has to be expected, because the hoarding of unused land is expensive. Instead, the supply of sites will increase, if the leasehold payment is in line with the land rent. Hence, the organizing of after use of sites is easier than today. But, generally, the remaining property rights in the hand of the privates (table 1: mainly usus, to a certain degree also abusus ) should be at least as strong as complete ownership titles.37 Otherwise the system would not be accepted by the people. Public law should dilute both leasehold tenure rights and complete titles basically in equal intensity. Regarding the land use plan execution, the users of the land have an incentive to do what the planners want them to do. They have to pay currently the land rent to the public. If they don t use the land according to the plans, or use the land in an inefficient way, they cannot earn the rent they have to pay and will suffer a loss. Consequently, if in a wide sense the deviation of real land use to land use plans are interpreted as external costs, these externalities are immediately internalized. Hence, the land users get a current pressure to use the land both efficiently (generating the possible land rent) and effectively (according to the land use plans) Consequences for land use management The major toehold of the leasehold tenure approach is land use management. For land use management purposes, speculation does not make sense any more, if the whole rent is (nearly) completely skimmed off. The economic value of the property rights of value and rent of land for the privates will always be zero. Hence, the supply of land will not be shortened by speculators, and the price of real estate will not be increased by them. If the user is urged to earn the rent, he currently has to look for an efficient use of the site. Dieterich describes the 36 Cf. Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung (Federal Office for Building and Regional Planning) / Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung (Federal Ministry for Transport, Building and Urban Affairs) (Ed.) (2006): Perspektive Flächenkreislaufwirtschaft Kreislaufwirtschaft in der städtischen/stadtregionalen Flächennutzung - Fläche im Kreis, Band 1: Theoretische Grundlagen und Planspielkonzeption, Bonn, September. 37 Seminar für Freiheitliche Ordnung e.v. (ed.) (1992): Folder Argumente für das Erbbaurecht als Instrument der kommunalen Bodenpolitik, available at the postal adress: Badstr. 35, D Bad Boll. 307

308 ERSEC conference proceeding experiences made in Denmark with the tax on the value of land.38 Similar experiences are reported from Australia by Lusht.39 Nobody will claim more land than he really needs. Therefore leasehold is a proper tool to reduce the consumption of land, suburbanization and urban sprawl. Underused or unused sites cost money. Thus, empty sites and underused houses could be avoided. In a proper working leasehold tenure system, the user would give the land back to the state or would try to transfer the right, if he is not able or willing to generate the land rent any more. Keeping recyclable brownfields unimproved also costs money. Hence, also the pressure on a revitalization of brownfields is rising. Even more than in consequence of a tax on the value of land, hoarding of sites is a thing of the past. 40 A proper leasehold tenure system gives pressure to holders to offer sites on the market. Generally, this pressure provides a high supply of sites. Thus, especially enterprises have no need any more to hoard reserve sites. This option only costs money ( dividend ), whereas also the market currently covers the needs for available sites. The owners of the buildings will have a current incentive to keep them maintained; otherwise they cannot earn the maximum land rent out of them. Experiences made with the tax on the value of land in Denmark also show the stimulating effect of maintenance on the construction industry, although the consumption of land is reduced.41 Because no acquisition costs for land are necessary any more, money can be more easily invested to increase the quality of the buildings upstanding. Another important side effect is that investors become more independent from credit restrictions, because access to land is now free. Currently, credit restrictions may affect severely enterprises as well as privates. If the debt-equity ratio is too high, banks will no longer offer credit. Liquidity plays an important role. In big cities, sometimes more than 50 percent of the price of real estate is paid only for the land. In Shanghai, also allocated land use rights were given sometimes to privates by exception, because they were not able to raise enough 38 H. Dieterich (2004): Reform der Grundsteuer, in: H. Dieterich / D. Löhr / S. Tomerius (Eds.): Jahrbuch für Bodenpolitik 2004, Berlin (VWF), p. 57. These experiences hold only before the tax freeze in Denmark in Cf. E. Erlandsen / J. Lundsgaard / F. Huefner (2006): The Danish Housing Market: Less Subsidy and More Flexibility Economics Department Working Paper No. 513, p. 6. http.// 39 Lusht, cit. in R. Josten (2000): Die Bodenwertsteuer Eine praxisorientierte Untersuchung zur Reform der Grundsteuer, Stuttgart (Kohlhammer), pp K.-M. Groth / P. v. Feldmann / C. Streck (2004): Möglichkeiten der Baulandmobilisierung durch Einführung einer bodenwertorientierten Grundsteuer Research project on behalf oft he Federal Ministry for Transport, Building and Urban Affairs, update oft he final report 2000, Berlin, p K.-M. Groth / P. v. Feldmann / C. Streck (2004), ibid., p

309 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management capital to pay the granted land use rights. If an investor buys a complete title or a granted land use right (as it is designed today), he has to take debts on this, to repay the loan and to pay the interest (with a risk premium added up). In a proper working leasehold system, the user only has to pay the current leasehold fee corresponding with the interest rate without any risk premium (if the user fails, the site goes back to the state). For privates as well as for companies this is a big financial relief: No amortization, no risk premium and no credit restriction. Access to land without savings is especially a chance for young entrepreneurs with good ideas, but low capital endowment. Hence, also economic innovation is supported by a proper land use system. The more efficient land use and also the easier access to land in the cities centers will lower the pressure to rededicate agricultural land in the suburbs for settlement purposes. Pressure on suburbanization and urban sprawl is taken away. This leasehold tenure system could basically (with some modifications) also used for farmland. 2.4 The social aspects In the leasehold tenure system promoted here, the rights due to land rent and value of land (left column in table 1) are dominantly in the hand of the public. This is just because the land rent and value of the land are a consequence of the population growth of the economic dynamics (income growth) public infrastructure investments planning decisions but basically not caused by activities of the land owners. Hence, in this system the public bears the costs as well as the benefits of the land. However, in a private ownership regime the state has the burden of the improvements and the private owners benefit from the results, basically without any contribution. In a market economy, the latter neither is an efficient design (see ch. 1.2.), nor a just design. Generally, the promoted leasehold tenure system has social appeal. In Germany, leasehold was introduced in 1919 especially for social reasons (today everybody is allowed to acquire a leasehold right). Particularly German municipalities are using leasehold tenure rights in the last years again more extensively, e.g., to privatize such flats, which are public property. If the buyers (former tenants, living in the flat) have a low budget and cannot afford to pay for the land, leasehold is a social way to deal with privatization F. Ost: Interview about using leasehold by municipalities, in: 309

310 ERSEC conference proceeding Referring to the leasehold payments, the authorities also have possibilities to control the composition of the leaseholders with limited personal releases: If they want to have more middle or low income families (respectively) and small and middle enterprises in the city centers, they may give them special conditions for the leasehold payments. For example, a startup enterprise has to pay lower payments for a certain range of time. Also low income families could get reductions for the payments, if a mixture of habitants is required. These kinds of reliefs basically should be given individual-related. Last but not least, leasehold by maintaining state property allows an effective and efficient land use policy on the one hand and to avoids at the same time the characteristic social problems of other emerging or developing countries in rural areas. In countries as India, Brazil or Indonesia large land holdings are replacing more and more small scale farming very often small farmers lost their land, with severe social consequences. 3 More than Simply an add up : Redistribution of the Payments The social aspect of a leasehold tenure system might be stressed more by adding on a further module: the redistribution concept.43 This concept is derived out of the ideas of old land reformers such as Henry George44, Silvio Gesell45, and Michael Flürscheim46 etc. Good land use policy leads to increasing land rents and to increasing prices of land. Due to this, in a private property regime the inequality in society will rise. In the end, especially poor people might suffer from a successful land use policy. The access to land will be hampered due to a good land use policy. Hence, there is a conflict of goals between a good land use policy and the social needs. Without additional elements, also the leasehold tenure approach described above is only partially able to ease these conflicts, because the leasehold fees will rise too. The basic idea discussed here is that land as well as the land rent belongs to the public, because nobody created the land. Every citizen has basically the same rights to land and land rent. Considering the citizens as shareholder of the land and the state as trustee, the rent should be redistributed to the people in equal shares. The results of this redistribution are noteworthy: 43 Cf. F. Andres (2001): Wieviel Erde braucht der Mensch? In: Fragen der Freiheit, 257 / 1-3, S. 24 ff. 44 H. George (1866): Progress and Poverty, San Francisco (W.M. Hinton), 2 nd ed S. Gesell (1949), Die Natürliche Wirtschaftsordnung durch Freiland und Freigeld, 9th edition, Lauf bei Nürnberg (Rudolf-Zitzmann-Verlag).- In English language cf. The Natural Economic Order, in: 46 M. Flürscheim (1890): Der einzige Rettungsweg, Dresden and Leipzig (Pierson). 310

311 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management a. Everybody has the same average possibility for access to land: If somebody needs a higher quantity or / and a higher quality of land than the average citizen, he has to pay more leasehold fees to the public. Although he also benefits from redistribution, in the end he pays more than he gets. In fact, the economic result is like paying a rent for his above-average use to those who use land below average. Thus, he has an incentive to save the use of land in order to get a better net payment out of the system. If somebody uses as much land (due to quality and quantity) as an average citizen, he pays as much leasehold fees as he gets from redistribution. Those who use land below average, pay less leasehold fees than they get back by redistribution. On balance, the members of this group get compensation from those who use their share of the common heritage land (the first group above). There is a current incentive for each group for a more efficient land use, because the net distribution position may be improved this way. Also this effect reduces pressure for suburbanization and urban sprawl, because people do not have such a high pressure as today to settle in suburbia due to a low budget. Thus, the redistribution regime also takes away pressure on setting up further dwellings in suburbia; that way it supports the neutrality of land use planning. The redistribution system may be installed on a small level (parts of a municipality) as well as on a large level (province) it holds for each kind of land. By redistributing the land rent in equal shares per person, everyone receives the average land rent. In other words, although the economical incentives to use the land are efficient, in fact the average use of land is free! This aspect is important, because the People s Republic of China will face rapid economic development also in the future. But economic development causes scarcity of land; this scarcity will get even worse due to good land use policy. A higher scarcity causes higher land rent and leases. Without a redistribution system, this will lead to distribution conflicts, because low income citizens will not be able any more to pay for the access to land. However, in the redistribution system, due to the rising scarcity also the volume of redistributed payments will increase. This means, a good land use policy will not have the bad social effects as it has today. Also low income families will be able to afford more comfortable flats instead of living in slums in the suburbs of the cities despite the rising land rents. The targets of efficiency, distribution justice and effectiveness of land use are harmonized. Also the restructuring of settlements, the demolition of old dwellings, hutongs, etc. and the reconstruction of new houses could be done without such severe social consequences as today when the people concerned cannot afford access to another piece of land. 311

312 ERSEC conference proceeding b. Redistribution works as a financial equalization scheme between urban and rural areas: Interesting political options are opened particularly for farmland. In China, ca. 60 % of the population are living in the countryside, mostly under bad conditions. There is high inequality between cities and rural areas. The income of the farmers and the rural land rent is low, in contrast to the land rent in the big cities. However, even though, the support from the rural areas is necessary to keep up the urban way of life, this contribution is not sufficiently compensated. To lower the difference between urban areas and countryside, the authorities could act as follows: The rural land rent (low rents from farmland) and the urban land rent payments (high rents from urban sites) could be pooled. The pooled land rents could be redistributed to the people in the cities and countryside in equal shares per head. Within such a redistribution system the habitants of rural areas would get back a good deal more than they paid into the fund. Hence, the system would give the land population a just compensation and at the same time it would raise the standard of living in the countryside. This redistribution mechanism would work like a financial equalization scheme in favor of the rural areas. The pressure of migration from countryside into the big cities would decrease. Also interesting side-effects occur: Today very often farmland is redistributed when new children are born. The effect of these current redistributions are weakened use rights and (because of insecurity) inefficient incentive structures. A redistribution system would cause different effects and open new possibilities: If the size of farmers families changes due to births, the family would benefit from higher redistribution payments. An additional redistribution of the land in order to feed the bigger family is not necessary any more. Hence, the use rights of the farmers could be strengthened. 4 Result Despite that the western economic main stream suggests exactly the opposite and although also many Chinese give pressure on the central government to privatize land, the actual leasehold tenure rights system should be strengthened and advanced. In no case this system should be abolished in order to establish a similar unsuccessful framework of specified property rights as the western states did. The western blueprint for land use is unqualified so far. In a complete title-system (as western states have), all rights mentioned in table 1 are in the hand of the privates. But in fact privates don t need strong ius abutendi und abusus -rights, and they don t need at all usus fructus. We described how these rights 312

313 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management are currently disturbing land use planning and land use management in western states. Hence, in western societies the land law is highly diluted by public law, to correct the overall aberrations. In fact, the rights of owners only have titles on land that are more or less weak.47 A proper working leasehold tenure regime makes many of these corrections dispensable, because users have an economic incentive to comply with the plans of the authorities. Hence, by giving particularly strong usus and partially also abusus rights to privates, these rights could be made stronger than currently, in a complete ownership title-system! The People s Republic of China has a unique chance to cut its own way, which is better than copying the unsuccessful western blueprint. Concerning land (and other nonrenewable resources), the actual leasehold tenure system in China has serious shortcomings: Ius abutendi and usus fructus -rights are strong (this cause speculation), usus and abusus rights are relatively weak (consequence: uncertainty). Nevertheless, the actual system is an excellent precondition for proceeding in a new, original Chinese way. A leasehold tenure system especially combined with the redistribution regime - brings the ecological, economical and social needs in harmony and supports a sustainable land use policy. 47 H. Dieterich (2001): Bodenordnung und Bodenpolitik, in: H. W. Jenkis (ed.): Kompendium der Wohnungswirtschaft, 4th ed., Munich / Vienna (Oldenbourg), pp

314 ERSEC conference proceeding The Studies and Applications of Beneficial Endophytic Bacillus 有益内生芽孢杆菌的研究与应用 Niu Ben, Mo Xiaodan, Zhang Li-xia, Zheng Chun-sheng, Zhao Jingjing,Li Xiao-nan, Qin Xiaojing, Fu Xuechi, Wang Qi and Mei Ruhong Department of Plant Pathology, College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University Abstract In order to reduce the use of agrichemicals while controlling crop pathogens, promoting crop growth, improving crop quality and enhancing the stress resistance of crops, we have carried out some research work about the environmental-friendly beneficial endophytic Bacillus strains which have the capacity to control plant pathogens and promote plant growth. Based on the research achievements obtained, we have developed several beneficial endophytic Bacillus preparations, some of which have been successfully applied in Chinese agriculture with good results. The studies and applications of beneficial endophytic Bacillus will help us to realize the sustainable land use and the water pollution control. Eventually it must promote sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. 摘要为了达到在控制作物病害 促进作物生长 改善作物品质 增强作物抗逆性的同时, 减少农用化学品使用量的目的, 本实验室对不会造成环境污染, 具有防病促生功能的有益内生芽孢杆菌进行了研究 基于所取得的研究成果, 本实验室开发出了一定数量的有益内生芽孢杆菌制剂, 其中一部分已被成功应用到农业生产当中, 并取得了良好的效果 对有益内生芽孢杆菌的研究与应用将有助于实现可持续化的土地利用以及对水污染的控制, 最终将推动中国农业的可持续发展 1 Use of Bacillus Currently, for the purpose of solving the food problem, more and more agrochemicals (chemical pesticides, chemical fungicides, chemical fertilizers and so on) have been applied in agriculture, which have brought significant environmental problems at the same time. This may eventually present a serious health threat to humans. To solve this problem, some new kinds of environmental-friendly microbial preparations, including 314

315 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management the Bacillus preparations made from natural and beneficial Bacillus strains, which are playing important roles in controlling crop pathogens, promoting crop growth, improving crop quality and enhancing the stress resistance of crops, have been developed and applied in agriculture to reduce the use of the agrochemicals. Bacillus was named as a genus for the first time in The bacteria belonging to the genus can form endospores to stand various kinds of adverse environments. It has been proved that some Bacillus strains have the effects of controlling plant pathogens and promoting plant growth. In addition, the fermentation process of the Bacillus strains is simple and low cost, so the beneficial Bacillus strains have been widely used in agriculture at present. In these years, we have isolated many Bacillus strains from the inner tissues of several kinds of plants, such as wheat, cucumber, tomato, sugar beet and so on. Some of the endophytic Bacillus strains have been proved to be beneficial ones which have the capacity to control plant pathogens and promote plant growth. In the study on beneficial endophytic Bacillus, we mainly focus on the following aspects: 1) the biocontrol and plant growth promoting effects of beneficial endophytic Bacillus, 2) the colonization of beneficial endophytic Bacillus in the inner tissues or on the surface of plants, 3) the cloning and heterologous expression of genes coding Bacillus SODs and, 4) the fermentation process of beneficial endophytic Bacillus strains. 1.1 The biocontrol and growth promoting effects of beneficial endophytic Bacillus We have newly screened a number of endophytic Bacillus strains with the functions of controlling plant pathogens and promoting plant growth. Bacillus cereus strain 2013, Bacillus subtilis strain 2014, Paneabacillus polymyxa strain M-1, Bacillus licheniformis strain W-2 and Bacillus subtilis strain W-3 have effects on controlling the wheat sharp eyespot disease which has already become one of the most damaging diseases, sharply reduced the wheat production(1,2). Both 2014 and its metabolite can inhibit the growth of Rhizoctonia cerealis hyphe on the PDA plates, however, under the same condition, no antagonistic band can be observed between 2013 and Rhizoctonia cerealis. Only the metabolite of 2013 can suppress the growth of Rhizoctonia cerealis hyphe. The biocontrol assay in the greenhouse has shown that the biocontrol effects of strains M-1, W-2, W-3 were all up to 50%. Simultaneously, 2011, 2012, 2013, M-1, W-2 and W-3 have effects on promoting wheat growth. 1.2 The colonization of beneficial endophytic Bacillus The beneficial endophytic Bacillus strains work on the premise that the bacteria must 315

316 ERSEC conference proceeding colonize in or on the plants. In order to study the colonization of the bacteria, we have tagged some of them with the green fluorescent protein (3, 4). Combined with the results obtained by the plate counting method, the distribution of the bacteria observed by fluorescence microscope indicates that they can not only colonize in or on the wheat plants but also migrate in them. The colonization of GFP-tagged Bacillus cereus strain B932 has been observed with the fluorescence microscope and the confocal system (5). The results indicated that B932 could colonize in wheat roots and transfer to leaves on the 5th day after wheat seedling emergence. For the purpose of revealing the colonization mechanism of the Bacillus, the effects of several factors reported before (flagellin, chemotaxis protein, plant-growing temperature and inoculation condition) on the colonization of the bacteria have been investigated (1,6,7). In the study on the effect of flagellin encoded by the genes flaa and flab, we found that the quantity of the flaa mutant colonized in or on the wheat roots was obviously less than the quantity of the wide-type A-47. Similar results were obtained from the research on the effect of chemotaxis protein, and the quantity of the CheA mutant colonized in or on the wheat roots was significantly less than the quantity of the wide-type B905. When we investigated the effects of the plant-growing temperature and inoculation condition on the colonization of Bacillus cereus strain B946 in the inner tissues of wheat, we found that a higher concentration than 10 8 cfu/ml, 3h for seed treatment, and plant-growing temperature at 25 were good for the colonization and transference. In addition, the role of superoxide dismutases (SODs) of Bacillus cereus strain 905 surviving in wheat rhizosphere was analyzed (8). We found that the functions of the two MnSODs appeared to be essential for the bacterium to colonize the wheat rhizosphere. In brief, all the factors investigated can influence the colonization to different extents. 1.3 The cloning and heterologous expression of Bacillus SOD genes Superoxide dismutase (EC ; SOD) is a metal-containing enzyme that widely exists in organisms. SODs which can catalyze the dismutation of superoxide into hydrogen peroxide and oxygen play a central role in protecting organisms against oxidative stress. At the present time, the superoxide dismutases have been widely applied in food, the pharmaceutical industry, health protection, daily chemical industry and agriculture. In the light of enormous potential of the SODs in agriculture and many other fields, we have screened some beneficial endophytic Bacillus strains (Bacillus cereus M22 and Bacillus cereus 905) which can yield high levels of SODs. The genes coding SODs have been cloned and successfully expressed in Escherichia coli and Pichia pastoris (9-12). In order to increase the level of SODs expressed, we have optimized 3 SOD genes 316

317 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management (Mn14-SOD, Mn18-SOD, CuZn-SOD) which are all from M22, according to the biased codons which are used by Pichia pastoris, then synthesized new sequences on the premise of no modification of the amino acid sequence (13). The 3 genes optimized were successfully expressed in Pichia pastoris, and the maximum activity of the SOD expressed was raised 2.2 times, 1.6 times and 1.8 times, respectively. This work will provide a scientific basis for the industrial scale production of SODs. 1.4 The fermentation process of beneficial endophytic Bacillus strains The fermentation process of Bacillus is simple and low cost, and the endospores formed by the bacteria facilitate the fermented products to be stored and transported. We have optimized the fermentation process (fermentation culture medium and fermentation condition) of some Bacillus strains to increase the fermentation yield and decrease the cost. Plackett-Burman design and response surface analysis were used to optimize the fermentation medium of Bacillus subtilis strain B908 under the shake-flask condition (14). According to the results of Plackett-Burman design, we found that the factors affecting the fermentation yield of B908 were corn flour, bean flour and CaCO 3. The optimum fermentation medium component for B908 was corn flour 13.0g, bean flour 20.5g, CaCO 3 7.0g, glucose 5.0g, fishmeal 5.0g, (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 1g, K 2 HPO 4 0.3g, MgSO 4 7H 2 O 0.2g, MnSO 4 H 2 O 0.2g, water 1000ml. The medium increased the production to spores ml 1 from spores ml -1. Other fermentation parameters including temperature, original ph-value, rotation speed, amount of inoculation etc, for B908 were also optimized. The optimum fermentation condition was described as: rotation speed 200 rpm, original ph , amount of inoculation 2%, amount of load 50 ml (in 500 ml flask). On the basis of the results, the optimized process was applied in 2000 L fermentation tun production, and it increased the yield of B908 by 50%. 1.5 The application of beneficial endophytic Bacillus Based on the research work above, 13 kinds of Bacillus preparations, including 4 kinds of biological fungicides, 7 kinds of microecological fertilizers, 1 kind of SOD-beneficial microecological preparation and 1 kind of organic matter fermentative agent, have been developed, among which 11 have been registered. The Yiwei Microecological Preparation is one of our products. It has been applied on more than 50 kinds of crops, including fruits, vegetables and field crops growing in 31 provinces by now, and the total applied area is up to 133 million hectares. The preparation can not only increase the yields by 10% on average and improve the crop qualities, but also control plant 317

318 ERSEC conference proceeding pathogens when applied by dipping roots, spraying leaves and soaking seeds. Through applying the Yiwei SOD-Beneficial Microecological Preparation, we have successfully developed more than 20 kinds of SOD functional food. 2 Conclusions In recent years, we have acquired several patents for our inventions, and our products also won many prizes for good results in agricultural application, which shows that the beneficial endophytic Bacillus and the relative products have made a great contribution to controlling crop diseases, increasing crop yields and improving crop qualities in Chinese agriculture. In a word, the study and application of the beneficial Bacillus will provide us with an effective approach to reduce the use of the agrochemicals, which will eventually help us to realize sustainable land use and water pollution control. There is no doubt that the natural and environmentally-friendly beneficial endophytic Bacillus will have a brighter future in sustainable development of Chinese agriculture. Acknowledgement The research work was supported by Production-Study-Research Cooperation Project, Beijing Municipal Education Commission and 863 Scientific Program. Reference 1. Liu, Z.-M. et al.2005.chinese Journal of Biological Control.21, Yao, L.-J. et al.2008.chinese Journal of Biological Control.24, Tian, T. et al Acta Phytopathologica Sinica.34, Qi X.-C. et al. Chinese Journal of Biological Control, (in press). 5. Wang X. Research on Colonization Dynamic of Plant Beneficial Bacillus cereus [MS. Thesis].Beijing: China Agricultural University, Gu, X.-H. et al.2005.acta Phytopathologica Sinica.35, Jiang, W. et al. Chinese Journal of Biological Control, (in press). 8. Wang, Y.-J. et al.2007.j.fems Microbiol.Lett.272, Chen, H.-F. et al.2003.journal of Microbiology.24, Shang, Y.-L. et al Acta Phytopathologica Sinica.34, Peng, X. et al Acta Phytopathologica Sinica.37, Mo, X.-D. et al Journal of Agricultural Biotechnology.16, Xu, Y. et al Journal of Agricultural Biotechnology, (in press). 14.Zhang, L.-X. et al. Chinese Journal of Biological Control.22,

319 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Overview on Different Treatment Methods for Liquid and Solid Manure Concerning Their Ability to Inactivate Pathogens 液体和固体肥非活性病原体能力的不同处理方法综述 Reinhard Böhm Institute of Environmental-and Animal Hygiene, University of Hohenheim, Germany Abstract Manure from animal populations with an undefined or a partly undefined health status may contain bacterial and viral pathogens as well as parasites, therefore epidemiological risks are connected with its agricultural use. Therefore, biotechnological treatment as well as physical treatment, including thermal drying as a chemical treatment, e.g. with lime, can be applied in order to achieve hygienic safety of the product according to the epidemiological situation, as long as the process had been validated by appropriate methods. Routinely, at the farm level only thermophilic anaerobic treatment or composting can be applied as preventive measures. In the case of notifiable diseases like FMD or other epidemics, chemical disinfection of manure will be the preferred procedure in order to avoid spreading of the diseases via the environment. 摘要来源于健康状况完全不明或部分不明的动物群体的粪肥可能包含细菌和病毒病原体以及寄生虫, 因此流行病的风险同这种肥在农业生产中的使用相关联 为了达到农产品的卫生安全, 可以采用生物技术处理, 物理方法处理比如加热烘干, 以及化学处理, 例如加入石灰等, 只要用适当的方法验证处理过程是有效的 通常来说在农田中只有喜温的厌氧处理或堆肥被用作预防措施 在诸如口蹄疫这样须申报的疾病或其它流行病的情况下, 为了避免疾病通过环境而传播, 粪肥的化学消毒是首选的途径 1 Introduction Animal manure is a valuable source of available nutrientsfor plants and organic matter, contributing to soil quality and fertility. However, manure can contain pathogenic micro organisms, parasites and viruses which create the potential for the transmission of 319

320 ERSEC conference proceeding diseases to susceptible animal populations or spread of zoonotic agents from the farm environment into the food chain via plants or food of animal origin or into drinking water. In order to interrupt one or more of the ways of transmission compiled below, measures have to be taken in order to reduce or totally inactivate the involved bacteria, viruses or parasites of epidemiological importance (European Parliament and Council, 2002). The most important precondition is that the method applied is effective, which can only be assured if it has shown in a validation procedure with representative test-organisms that it is capable of reducing the relevant organisms in a sufficient manner. A complete documentation on manure management and related biotic as well as abiotic risks has been edited by Burton and Turner (2003), therefore only some basic information will be given here. 2 Epidemiological Background Besides the indigenous microbiological flora and populations of viruses including protozooic and metazooic organisms, manure may contain a variety of obligate and facultative pathogens for animals including zoonotic agents as well as undesired organisms which shall not be spread in the environment and shall not be introduced into the biocoenosis like multi resistant bacteria and seeds of weeds (Strauch, 1991). The indigenous flora as well as the pathogens and undesired contaminants are depending on species and amount on the type of manure, the epidemiological situation in the animal population and the antimicrobial drugs used in the epidemiological unit as well as on storing and already given treatment conditions. Mainly three hygienic risks do generally exist in handling biological wastes, occupational health risks, environmental risks and risks concerning product safety. In this framework only treatment and measures preventing risks caused by the utilization of manure, as fertilizer will be regarded, this includes the environmental risks related to collection, storage and utilization. The spectrum of applicable measures and methods has gradually different effects on the epidemiological risks related to solid and liquid manure. Manure containing pathogenic vegetative bacteria, as well as bacterial spores, viruses with different chemo- and thermoresistance, as well as infectious stages of different parasites is representing the highest degree of epidemiological risk in this context. A validated treatment capable of inactivating vegetative bacteria and viruses with moderate resistance like enteroviruses results in a manure representing the next lower level in a risk assessment. The remaining parasitic stages, highly resistant viruses and bacterial spores are defining the remaining risk. A validated treatment capable to inactivate vegetative bacteria, viruses of moderate resistance and infectious parasitic stages results in a manure, with the next lower level concerning the epidemiological risk, which is characterized only by the remaining highly resistant viruses (e.g. parvo- and caliciviruses) and spores of sporeformers. A 320

321 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management validated treatment capable to inactivate vegetative bacteria, viruses of high resistance and infectious parasitic stages will result in a manure containing only the remaining spores of aerobic and anaerobic sporeformers and represents the level of biosafety with the lowest epidemiological risk (Table 1). From the practical point of view, since sterilization resulting in a material free of thermoresistant spores seems not to be a desirable aim to attain a material spread on soil inhabited with the same or related sporeformers, belonging to its indigenous flora. Level of biosafety Table 1: Simplified compilation of different treatment levels for manure under hygienic aspects. Type of pathogens inactivated Vegetative bacteria Viruses with moderate resistance Vegetative bacteria Viruses with moderate resistance Infectious parasitic stages Vegetative bacteria Virus of high resistance Infectious parasitic stages Vegetative bacteria Virus of high resistance Infectious parasitic stages Bacterial spores Vegetative bacteria Virus of high resistance Infectious parasitic stages Prions Type of pathogens remaining Parasitic stages Highly resistant viruses Bacterial spores Prions Highly resistant viruses Bacterial spores Prions Bacterial spores Prions Prions 3 Treatment Options for Inactivation of Pathogens The methods which can be applied for inactivation of the different pathogens can be chemical, physical and biological treatment. Except in aerobic or anaerobic biotechnological treatment, the applied micobicidal process may have more or less adverse effects to substantial properties of the treated material deemed to be used as a fertilizer (e.g. loss of nutrients, losses of organic matter). This is of secondary importance if the treatment is done in the case of eradication of notifiable epidemics in animal husbandry, but if the treatment is done in another legal context, in the context of general preventive measures or of voluntary quality assurance systems, those factors have to be taken into account. Each process has once to be validated in order to be sure that it will be effective for the intended purpose, the involved type of manure and the related epidemiological situation (European Parliament and Council, 2007). 321

322 ERSEC conference proceeding The spectrum of applicable measures and methods has gradually different effects on the epidemiological risks related to solid and liquid manure. Manure containing pathogenic vegetative bacteria, as well as bacterial spores, viruses with different chemo- and thermoresistance, as well as infectious stages of different parasites is representing the highest degree of epidemiological risk in this context. 3.1 Physical treatment For physical treatment in general the application of heat or irradiation is possible, but not very common. Only drying of poultry manure as well as exposure of spread manure to sunlight has a certain importance in this context. In a certain epidemiological situation pasteurization prior to further biotechnological treatment or other utilization is required as well as applied in some countries in the case of notifiable diseases as Foot and Mouth Disease. In this case liquid manure can be pasteurized by direct or indirect heating of the intended volume in a batch process or by microwaves in a continuous mode. If in a batch process a temperature of at least 70 C is kept for at least 60 min vegetative bacteria, viruses of moderate heat resistance and all infectious parasitic stages will be inactivated if the temperature is evenly distributed in the material with a high probability. Pasteurization at 90 C for 60 min will lead to an inactivation of vegetative bacteria, heat resistant viruses and infective parasitic stages in a sufficient level in order to achieve hygienic safety and some heat sensitive bacterial spores will also be affected (Fig. 1). Other combinations of temperature and exposure time may be effective as well, if the relevant process data has been confirmed in a suitable validation procedure. However, this technology is not applied to full scale plants. Microwave heating in a continuous flow mode has also shown to be effective to vegetative bacteria, moderately heat-resistant viruses as well as to parasites at a temperature of 80 C and an exposure time of less than one second in the microwave field. Thermal drying of manure is mainly done at ambient or moderate temperatures and therefore no significant inactivation of pathogens can be expected. If additional heat is applied and temperatures above 60 C are achieved inactivation of certain pathogens can be expected, but it must be kept in mind that the main factors influencing the inactivation of the relevant pathogens are the temperature, the exposure time and the water activity in the material. The latter is of special importance. Low water activity increases the heat resistance of micro organisms in a way that even vegetative bacteria can survive temperatures of above 100 C. Therefore the drying procedure must be designed so that the inactivation of the target organisms is complete before the aw-value of the material drops below 0,9. Since the drying procedure is a complex one, those processes have to be validated on a type related basis in order to fix the relevant effective process data. 322

323 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 1: Temperature ranges effective for inactivation of different types of pathogens. In thermal inactivation by the application of moist heat, thermoresistance of parasitic infective stages is low while the inactivation of PrP res requires extremely high temperatures 3.2 Chemical treatment Chemical disinfection of liquid manure may be done with several substances as could be seen from Table 2. Generally it applies in the case of an epidemic and not routinely after every service period. The cheapest way is using 40% lime-wash which is commercially available in most places in Europe and will be distributed directly to the farm. Chemical disinfection of liquid manure will only be successful if the slurry has been carefully mixed up prior to adding the chemicals and subsequently stirred every day for at least 1h during the exposure time, which is normally 4 days. Solid manure can be disinfected by setting up a pile with manure mixed with quicklime in the following way: Selection of a place with solid ground (e.g. concrete floor) a safe distance form buildings and inflammable materials Distribution of a 25 cm high straw-layer on which 10 kg /m 2 lime is spread Loading of a solid manure spreader layer soil manure by layer and granulated quicklime in a ratio of 100 kg lime per 1 m 2 of solid manure (at least two layers of each) Setting up a pile by turning down the material from the manure spreader to the prepared straw layer up to 1.5 m high under steady moistening with water Covering the pile with black silo foil fixed by stones Turning the pile after 5 weeks Spreading the disinfected manure after a total exposure time of 10 weeks preferably on arable land followed by ploughing in 3.3 Biotechnological Treatment Aerobic and anaerobic biotechnological treatments can be done in the mesophilic or in the thermophilic range. In such processes a more or less rapid inactivation of pathogens occurs due to different factors like antibiosis, ph-shift, redox-potential, antagonism, 323

324 ERSEC conference proceeding nutrient deficiencies and exothermic metabolism. The most effective factor in this context is the elevated temperature (above 50 C). In the broadest sense, long time storage can be regarded as biotechnological treatment. Generally it can be stated that only a thermophilic process run in a semi batch manner keeping a defined exposure time without adding or taking out manure is suitable for an inactivation of pathogens within a reasonable time frame. The aerobic process applied may be either aerobic thermophilic stabilization (ATS) of liquid manure or composting of solid manure or solids separated from liquid manure. The ATS process should be operated in two-stage reactors (two vessels connected in series) at least, to achieve a sufficient exposure time and avoiding hydraulic shortcircuits in filling in and taking out of sludge during the operation (Meyer, 2001). Based on the semi batch type of operation (e.g. one hour feeding per day) and 23 hours stabilization (exposure time) and of the temporary decrease of temperature inevitably connected with this type of operation, the following reaction times and temperatures are recommended for inactivation of vegetative bacteria, viruses of moderate resistance and infectious parasitic stages: 23h at 50 C or 10h at 55 C or 4h at 60 C. Composting of manure can be done with different techniques in windrows and reactors, under open air conditions and under a roof. Recommended process parameters for hygienization in composting cannot be given here, because every technique applied has different properties concerning the process parameters to be kept for hygienization. Table 2: Chemical disinfection of liquid manure for different types of pathogens Chemical 40% lime wash Caustic Soda 50% Exposure time (days) Formalin (37% Formaldehy de) Organism of concern Vegetative Naked Enveloped Mycobacteria viruses viruses bacteria Dose (kg/m 3) Exposure time(days Dose (kg/m 3 ) % NaOH (0.8%NaOH) Dose (kg/m 3 ) Exposure time (days) 15 (1.5 % Formalin) (1.0 % Formalin) 25 Bacterial spores up to 5%dry matter: % dry matter: Peracetic Dose (kg/m 3 ) (0,37 % Peracetic - (0.6% Peracetic - acid* acid) acid) - (15%) Exposure time (days) Calcium Dose (kg/m 3 ) cyanamide Exposure time ** (days * Formation of foam only applicable with small volumes of slurry ** Vigorous stirring necessary 324

325 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Therefore every type of composting equipment has to be validated by an adequate technique in order to find out the relevant process data to be kept in order to achieve hygienic safety in the intended range. Nevertheless some experience-based general data can be given for orientation: 55 C must be kept for two weeks or 65 C for one week in windrow composting with at least one turning of the pile and one week in container composting at least 60 C in the whole material. Mesophilic anaerobic digestion of manure alone or in codigestion with other substrates is not capable to inactivate pathogens in the exposure time given by the standard procedure of operation, therefore additional physical or chemical treatment is necessary in order to reach the intended level of hygienization. Thermophilic anaerobic treatment at temperatures between 53 and 55 can be effective in inactivation of vegetative bacteria, viruses with moderate resistance and infectious stages of parasites. If in a semi batch procedure an exposure time of at least 20 h can be kept without filling in and without taking out material. References 1. Bendixen, H.G. (1999) Hygienic safety - Results of scientific investigations in Denmark (Sanitation requirements in Danish biogas plants), pp IEA Bioenergy Workshop (Proceedings), Deutsche Veterinärmedizinische Gesellschaft e.v., Frankfurter Str. 89, D Giessen Burton, C.H. and Turner, C. (2003) Manure Management-Treatment strategies for sustainable agriculture. 2.Ed. Silsoe Research Institute, Wrest Park, Silsoe, Bedford, UK 2. European Parliament and Council (2002):Regulation (EC) No 1774/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 3 October2002, laying down health rules concerning animal by-products not intended for human consumption. 3. European Parliament and Council (2007):Commission regulation (EC) No 185/2007 of 20 February 2007 amending Regulations (EC) No 809/2003 and (EC) No 810/2003 as regards extension of the validity of the transitional measures for composting and biogas plants under Regulation (EC) No 1774/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council 4. Meyer, J. (2001) Hygienisch-mikrobiologische Untersuchungen an drei Güllebehandlungsanlagen unter Berücksichtigung des Parasiten Cryptosporidium, Vet. Med. Dissertation, Freie Universität, Berlin, Journal No Strauch, D. (1991) Survival of Pathogenic Microorganims and Parasites in Excreta, Manure and Sewage Sludge. Rev. Sci. Tech. Off. Int. Epiz. 10, S

326 ERSEC conference proceeding The Sino-German International Research Training Group Sustainable Resource Use in the North China Plain 中德合作教育研究项目 华北平原资源的可持续利用 Reiner Doluschitz 1, Zhang Fusuo 2, Diana Ebersberger 3 and Torsten Müller 4 1 Institute of Farm Management, University of Hohenheim, Germany 2 College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University 3 IRTG Sustainable Resource Use in North China, University of Hohenheim, Germany 4 Institute for Plant Nutrition, Universität Hohenheim, Germany Abstract Agricultural food production in the North China Plain is characterized by high level production intensities, crop rotations and yields. Until now, sustainability has not been taken into account sufficiently in the development of China s agriculture, which has mainly been focused on raising productivity by increasing yields in order to meet the food demand of a growing population with increasing living standards. As a consequence, agricultural production in China entails serious environmental problems such as reduced water availability as well as air, water, and soil pollution. In 2004, the German Research Foundation (DFG), Bonn and the Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing jointly implemented the first Sino-German International Research Training Group (IRTG) at the University of Hohenheim and the China Agricultural University. Meanwhile, funding has been granted until The project aims at developing cropping systems and management practices for the North China Plain that will ensure high intensities and will at the same time be environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable. This requires clearly identifying, measuring, and modeling of related material flow effects in cropping systems. Strategies to reduce or avoid negative effects have to be developed, analyzed and assessed on field, farm and regional levels in order to derive suitable agro-environmental policy measures. Subprojects within this International Research Training Group focus on the above mentioned topics and involve many fields of agricultural sciences (soil science, plant nutrition, plant ecology, physics, biogeophysics, crop and vegetable production, plant breeding, weed science, agricultural engineering, agricultural 326

327 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management economics, agricultural informatics and rural development policy). Most of them use modelling approaches on different levels and scales which enable linkages between levels and projects. This contribution to the ERSEC Conference 2008 will present the main results of the IRTG s research carried out in the past years and will give an outlook on the work planned in the future. 摘要高度集约化生产 作物轮作与高产是华北平原农业粮食作物高产的主要特色 然而至 今, 中国农业的发展仍然没有充分考虑资源的可持续利用问题, 而是主要偏重于通过提高作物产量来增加农业生产力, 以满足增长的人口及日益提升的生活水平带来的粮食需求 结果中国的农业生产导致了严重的环境问题, 例如水资源可利用性的降低, 以及空气 水和土壤的污染 在 2004 年, 德国研究协会 (DFG) 与中国教育部共同开展了首个中德合作教育研究项目, 并由德国 Hohenheim 大学和中国农业大学合作执行, 同时此项目的研究经费已被充分支持到 2013 年 本项目旨在开发适于华北平原的作物生产体系及管理措施以确保在高度集约化生产条件下, 环境 经济和社会的可持续发展 这需要清楚的验证 测量和模拟相关的物流对生产的影响 另外, 用来减低和避免负面影响的策略也已被开发出来, 并通过分析被应用到基地 农户 区域等不同尺度来寻求最适合的农业与环境政策 在此中德项目中的所有子课题均紧紧围绕这一主题, 同时涉及了土壤学 植物营养学 生态学 物理学 作物栽培 作物遗传育种 杂草学 农业工程 农业经济 农业信息技术及农村发展等多个农业学科领域 大多数的子项目均利用模型进行不同程度和范围的模拟来确保不同层次与不同项目之间的连接 此中德合作教育研究项目过去几年的研究成果与未来的工作展望将在 2008 年中国环境可持续发展生态研究国际会议中发表 1 Introduction The International Research Training Group Sustainable Resource Use in North China (IRTG) was established by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and the Chinese Ministry of Education at the University of Hohenheim (Stuttgart) and the China Agricultural University (Beijing) in June 2004 and will be funded until Agricultural food production in the North China Plain is characterized by high level production intensities, crop rotations and yields. Until now, sustainability has not been taken into account sufficiently in the development of China s agriculture, which has mainly been focused on raising productivity by increasing yields in order to meet the food demand of a growing population with increasing living standards. As a consequence, agricultural production in China entails serious environmental problems like reduced water availability, air and water pollution, and soil degradation. The research program of the IRTG aims at developing cropping systems and management practices for the North China Plain that will ensure high intensities and will at the same 327

328 ERSEC conference proceeding time be environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable. The IRTG consists of 11 subprojects from various disciplines (soil sciences, plant nutrition, plant ecology, physics, crop and vegetable production, plant breeding, weed science, agricultural engineering, farm management, agricultural informatics and rural development policy). Research is jointly conducted by German and Chinese project leaders and German and Chinese PhD Students and postdoctorals. All subprojects use modeling approaches on different levels and scales in order to establish linkages between levels and projects. Modeling approaches of agricultural systems are therefore the major topic in the accompanying qualification program for PhD students whose modules take alternately place in Stuttgart and Beijing twice a year. 2 Study Region The North China Plain (NCP), which is one of the most important regions of cereal crop production in China, covers an area of about 328,000 km 2 and seven provinces, including, in total or parts, Anhui, Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong and Tianjin (see Fig. 1). Agricultural production in this region constitutes around 37.5% of the total national agricultural production (Xin and Li, 1990). Wheat and maize rotations and one season cotton are the most common cropping systems. Especially for these two main crops the region is very important as a production area as it contributes an amount of 50% of Chinese wheat and about one third of Chinese maize total production, respectively (Kendy et al. 2003). Crop production in the North China Plain was focused in the last decades on yield increase to meet the growing food demand of a rapidly growing population. This development is characterized basically by fixation on increasing yield raising serious environmental problems (Bönning-Zilkens 2003, Lin 1992). In the winter wheat and summer maize productions systems, like in other intensive agricultural systems, water shortage and pollution, air pollution and soil contamination have become evident. In the NCP, the availability of arable land is limited and total arable land has decreased as a result of the proceeding urbanization and infrastructural development projects. Therefore, food production can only be increased by augmenting productivity of the land in the long run by more efficient production intensities, aiming at decreases in fertilizerinput and irrigation, and applying improved crop rotations and other agricultural management optimization. With the growing population and a rising standard of living, it is essential to develop land use systems with higher productivity but also better resources protection for the North China Plain. 328

329 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Figure 1: The North China Plain with the location of the 3 research stations 3 Research Program The main objective of the project is to develop cropping systems and management practices for the North China Plain that will ensure high yield levels and will at the same time be environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable. The central research idea of the IRTG is the quantification and multi-level assessment of effects on material flows as a consequence of optimized cropping systems. Strategies to reduce or avoid negative effects have to be developed, analyzed and assessed on field, farm and regional levels in order to derive suitable agro-environmental policy measures and potential for broad acceptance by farmers. The main hypotheses of the overall research program are: 329

330 ERSEC conference proceeding Adjustments in cropping systems (wheat/maize, vegetables) and management practices provide potential for sustainable resource protection (soil, water, air, nutrients) on a high yield level. Adjusted cropping systems and management practices meet farm level (economic and organisational) and sectoral (demand) requirements provide regional benefits and can be linked to the sectoral (political, institutional) frameworks. Modeling approaches at all research levels are available and suitable to the conditions in the North China Plain to transfer spot results to a broader surrounding (regional, sectoral). The research program is structured in 11 subprojects within 3 groups. Subproject topics and responsible scientists from both partner universities are listed below (Table 1). In December 2008, corresponding to the start of the second 4.5-year-phase of funding, two new subprojects will take up work, namely SP 2.3 Decision support systems for weed management in North China Plain production systems and SP 2.4 Precision irrigation and fertiliztion technology for improving water and fertilizer efficiency of North China Plain production systems. Table 1: Subproject topics and leaders SP Topic Subproject Leaders Group 1: Material Flows/ Pollution Analysis 1.1 A combined BaPS- 13 C stable isotope technique to study the interaction Streck and Ingwersen/ Ju between C and N turnover in alkaline agricultural soils of the North China Plain 1.2 Optimisation of soil organic matter management under intensive cropping in Müller T/ Chen XP and the North China Plain Zhang 1.3 Modeling and measuring nitrogen deposition in the North China Plain Fangmeier/ Liu and Zhang FS 1.4 Further development and evaluation of laser spectroscopic in-situ Haas and Wizemann/ measurement techniques for highly sensitive detection of climate relevant Jiang and Su trace gas fluxes in the North China Plain Group 2: Cropping Systems 2.1 Design, modeling and evaluation of improved cropping strategies and multilevel Claupein and Graeff/ interactions in mixed cropping systems in the North China Plain Wang 2.2 QTL analysis and optimization of breeding schemes for improved nitrogenuse Melchinger/ Chen SJ and efficiency of maize and wheat for sustainable cropping systems in the Sun North China Plain 2.3 Decision support systems for weed management in North China Plain Gerhards and Belz/ Ni production systems 2.4 Precision irrigation and fertigation technology for improving water- and Müller J./Han fertilizer-efficiency of North China Plain production systems Group 3: Farm level, regional and sectoral assessment 3.1 Economic analysis on the effects of management and policy measures Zeddies/ Xiao aiming at a reduction of the environmental burden from high-level agricultural production in the North China Plain 3.2 Development and implementation of an Integrated Agro-Environmental Doluschitz/ Yu Information System at regional levels of different scales in the North China Plain 3.3 Property rights and access to credit, inputs and agricultural knowledge: implications for technical efficiency, sectoral change, and rural income inequality Zeller and Heidhues / Wu 330

331 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Already in October 2004, soon after the official launch of the IRTG, the main field trials for the IRTG were established in Dongbeiwang (Beijing suburb), Wuqiao and Quzhou (see Figure 1). They included five treatments (respectively 6 treatments in Wuqiao) in a completely randomised block design in 4 replications: 1) Farmers practice: double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize as practiced on farms concerning fertilisation, irrigation and tilling 2) Reduced input: double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize under conditions of reduced input concerning nitrogen fertilisation and irrigation 4) Three harvests in two years: winter wheat and summer maize in first year, spring maize in second year under conditions of reduced input 5) Continuous spring maize under conditions of reduced input 6) Vegetables: transplanted spring cabbage, intercropped spring maize and spinach during one year 7) Wuqiao-System: double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize (only in Wuqiao). For the socio-economic analysis of current agricultural systems in the North China Plain, in spring 2005 the subprojects of Group 3 conducted a joint survey of 337 agricultural households in 20 villages in Hebei, Henan and Shandong provinces. The questionnaire used for the survey covered the following topics: key characteristics of the farm household and the family members including off-farm activities, land resources and land use rights, cultivation systems with special focus on fertiliser application, machinery, livestock, self-run family businesses, and credit access of the farm households. The farm households were asked to describe the cultivation season of those crops harvested in Selected Results of the First Phase ( ) In the result section, we will focus on research activities regarding nitrogen pollution and water saving in the NCP. Water shortage is one of the burning issues in Chinese agricultural development. Binder (2007) evaluated the double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize in the North China Plain. The model based analysis with DSSAT indicated that the irrigation amount can be reduced during the winter wheat growing season without affecting grain yield and gross margin. This can mainly be achieved by improving the irrigation schedule. In another study, Binder et al. (2007) suggest that shifting from the traditional double cropping system to single spring maize cultivation could contribute to water saving strategies while maintaining high yields. 331

332 ERSEC conference proceeding Barning (2008) analysed the data of the household survey regarding the nitrogen balances in different crops. He showed that in all crops, but especially in wheat, a high nitrogen surplus is common in the NCP farms, which is on average 200 kg/ha per year. He found that only few farms followed the recommended nitrogen application rates, and concluded that an insufficient knowledge transfer system is the key reason for the inadequate use of the traditional cultivation system in terms of fertilizer application in the North China Plain. The modification of the nitrogen price by a nitrogen tax is considered as an economically applicable instrument. However, a noticeable share of the target group seemed not to consider their farm level economic optimum as criterion in their determination of the applied nitrogen. Hence, an improvement in application of the cultivation technology might be more successful than an economic instrument. This can only be achieved via improvements in education and agricultural skill of the farmers. The nitrogen surplus calculated by Barning (2008) on the basis of household data does not take into account the airborne nitrogen input into agroecosystems of the North China Plain. For example for the maize growing period, He et al. (2007) estimated a total nitrogen input of 83.3 kg N ha -1 averaged across the three experimental sites of Dongbeiwang, Wuqiao and Quzhou. This result suggests serious atmospheric N pollution, which is currently not considered in fertilizer recommendations. The heavy overuse of fertilizers also leads to high rates of nitrogen leaching. Rumbaur (2008) studied the water balance and nitrogen leaching at the three field trials. The highest rates occurred in Dongbeiwang under summer maize (130 kg N ha -1 ) in the Farmers Practice treatment. Under Reduced Input conditions, nitrogen leaching was decreased considerably, up to 80%. However, yields reached nearly the same level than in the Farmers Practice treatment. In conclusion, results of the different subprojects confirm that high-yielding cropping systems with increased water and nitrogen efficiency can be developed for the NCP. However, better education of the farmers and better extension services are prerequisites for their spread among farmers. 5 Outlooks Building on the results from the first years, the research program of the coming years will become more focused on developing improved cropping and management systems. Ideally, the outcomes of the project will finally provide policy recommendations - for realizing sustainable resource use of agriculture in the North China Plain - which are both scientifically sound and realizable by policy makers and also by common farmers. In addition to the scientific outcome, the project has already been successful in capacity 332

333 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management building regarding young Chinese and German scientists which gained broad expertise in the field of sustainable agriculture and in strengthening the Sino-German cooperation. Results of the IRTG will partly be transferred to practical agriculture within the recently started German-Chinese transfer project Innovative nitrogen management technologies to improve agricultural production and environmental protection in intensive Chinese agriculture which is jointly funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (MOST) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). References 1. Barning, R. (2008): Economic evaluation of nitrogen application in the North China Plain. PhD Thesis, Universität Hohenheim, Barning_2008_Economic_Evaluation _of_nitrogen_application_in_the_north_china_plain.pdf. 2. Binder, J., S. Graeff, W. Claupein, M. Liu, M. Dai and P. Wang (2007): An empirical evaluation of yield performance and water saving strategies in a winter wheat - summer maize double cropping system in the North China Plain. German Journal of Agronomy 11 (1), Binder, J., (2007): Reducing irrigation water supply to accomplish the goal of designing sustainable cropping systems in the North China Plain, PhD Thesis, Universität Hohenheim, df 4. Böning-Zilkens, M. I. (2003): Comparative appraisal of different agronomic strategies in a winter wheat summer maize double cropping system in the North China Plain with regard to their contribution to sustainability. PhD-Thesis, Universität Hohenheim, He, C.-E., Liu, X., Fangmeier, A., and Zhang, F. (2007). Quantifying the total airborne nitrogen input into agroecosystems in the North China Plain. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment 121, Kendy, E., Molden, D. J., Steenhuis, T. S., Liu, C. and Wang, J. (2003): Policies Drain the North China Plain - Agricultural Policy and Groundwater Depletion in Luancheng County, International Water Management Institute, Colombo. 7. Lin, J. Y. (1992): Rural reforms and agricultural growth in China. American Economic Review, 82/ 1, Rumbaur, Christian (2008): Regional risk assessment of nitrate leaching in the North China Plain depending on land use intensity. PhD-Thesis, Universität Freiberg - in review. 9. Xin, D. H. & Li, W. J. (1990): Comprehensive control of salt affected land and rural development in the North China Plain. Beijing: Beijing University Press. For a complete list of publications related to the IRTG, please refer to: 333

334 ERSEC conference proceeding Summary and Conclusions: Establishing Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Systems Outcome of the ERSEC International Conference on Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 8 10 October 2008, Beijing, P.R. China 1 Introduction This paper summarizes findings of the ERSEC International Conference on Sustainable Land Use and Water Management, held from 8 to 10 October 2008, Beijing, P.R. China. The conference took place under the general framework of Ecological Research for Sustaining the Environmental in China (ERSEC), was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and implemented by the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Office Beijing. In response towards the general aim of the ERSEC project to influence the policymaking process in China with ecological considerations, the conference is dedicated towards the promotion and application of scientific research to build better mechanisms for a sustainable land use and water management system. It is also expected that the conference could serve to constitute an interactive platform where experts from not only Germany and China, but also other countries, would be able to share and integrate expertise from a multi-disciplinary perspective. Participants represented a wide spectrum, ranging from science and research to economy and administration, although most are based in two projects partners - Germany and China. With over a fifth of the world s population and less than 7% of the planet s arable land and scarce water resources linked with an annual economic growth rate of around 10% and a rapid urbanization, China s landscape is dramatically changing with far reaching social, economical, and environmental implications. While economic achievements have enabled policy makers to introduce a more balanced policy towards a sustainable development, population growth and economic development continue to put great pressure on natural resources and the environment. Hence there is an urgent need for knowledge-based solutions to facilitate a sustainable land use management. Issues of land use and water management are closely connected. With a view to achieving this, it is necessary to integrate land use and water 334

335 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management management and establish a sustainable land use and water management system in China. Against this general backdrop, the participating researchers are focusing their efforts on the following topics: 1. Integrating land use management and water management 2. Technical and organizational innovations for a sustainable use of land and water resources 3. An institutional framework and management practice for land use and water management Science and technology play an important role in creating sound knowledge for the sustainable use of our resources. Whilst technological innovations offer answers and solutions, the integration and diffusion of scientific knowledge into the respective policy framework will contribute to the development of an institutional infrastructure necessary for the planning and implementation of sustainable land use and water management. 2 Conference Summary and Statements The following section is structured according to major topics and points of interests raised and discussed by the participating researchers, organizations and audiences. Establishing Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Systems Reducing the intensity of resource utilization by water saving irrigation Climate change and land cover change challenges to the water system The contribution of Jatropha curcas to sustainable land use, food and energy security The system of recycling of organic residues Minimizing the epidemiological risks by validated treatment to organic waste Combination of biogas and organic fertilizer to maximize water protection Innovative Concepts and Instruments for a Sustainable Use of Land and Water Resources Instruments for land use plan and river basin management: Planning/Decision Support System and geodata Sustainable development of riparian forest by human-controlled flooding Decentral non-structural measures for flood protection Integrate ecological, economical and social aspects into a Land Use Planning System to improve soil and water conservation GIS-based tools contributes to sustainable and diverse land use system 335

336 ERSEC conference proceeding Institutional Framework and Socioeconomic Conditions for Land Use and Water Management Decentralized wastewater and storm water management on the basis of land use data Indigenous social institution for sustainable ground water irrigation and command area management Multifunctionality of agriculture becomes a new rural paradigm Integrate rural socio-economic development into its water resources management Combination of economic, legislative and soft measures for the reform of field property rigths of countyside in China Leasehold approaches as a support for good land use policy German Water Framework Directive a model of regional economic effects Improving and sustaining food production and environmental quality The challenge of higher crop yield in China needs actions by both institutions and individuals Agricultural nitrogen balance calculations in Germany Nitrogen fertilization management for a highly sustainable and resource-saving production in intensive Chinese agriculture Models of the nitrogen cycle as a tool for nitrogen fertilizer recommendations and calculating scenarios with impacts on the groundwater as well as N 2 O emissions Sustainable Solutions for Integrating Land Use and Water Management Application of qualitative and quantitative models with climate and socioeconomic scenarios in assessing their impacts on agriculture, food security etc. to design adaptation measures with the aid of spatial decision support systems (DSS) Integrate land and water management to maintain the health of land,water and the ecosystem and support food security Case Study on Integrated Land Use and Water Management The Sino-German research training group: sustainable resource use in the North China Plain Sustainable development of a forestry-based community in water resources protection in Miyun watershed, Beijing Promoting sustainable land-use in the greater Mekong subregion 336

337 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management Alleviate water scarcity in northwestern China: public investment, modern irrigation and high water price Conference general recommendations An integrated sustainable land use and water management system should be established Climate change will lead to a complex land and water management system; many paradigms of knowledge and perceptions exist Integrated model approaches should deal with all competitive requirements of future land-use and climate change Technologies and strategies have to be developed for rural areas with their specific logistic conditions to secure ecosystem functions, plant and animal protection as well as socio-economic development A combination of economic, legislative and soft measures will help farmers include environmental costs into their production decision System dynamic modelling is useful to win holistic insights into sustainability policies Investment in technology for efficient irrigation, agricultural education and extension services to increase crop yield is strongly required It is urgent to have an effective tool to disseminate information and transfer the know-how of the best practice to farmers Adequate physical, biotechnological or chemical treatment in a validated process can minimized the epidemiological risks connected with the utilization of organic wastes and residuals like wastewater, sewage sludge or animal manure By integrating three critical elements- ecological, economical and social aspects into a Land Use Planning System can achieve sustainable improvements of soil and water conservation GIS-based tool shows the consequences of land use change on the economical, social and ecological levels, which can contribute to the sustainable and diverse land use system Comparative economic analysis of centralized and decentralized land use and water management system is necessary China should follow the policy to develop the country in a more environmental friendly way and maintain the possibility of food security Taking more consideration of economic, social aspects and climate change issues to keep a whole picture related with water and land use is important Scientists have to be openers in an inter-disciplinary manner During the three day conference, participants discussed and deliberated the crucial issues of land use and water management regarding aspects of economy and society, policy and institution, technology and instruments. They integrated and exchanged results of their 337

338 ERSEC conference proceeding investigations. In this context, critical comments have been taken as the constructive inputs. Based on these discussions and inputs, we developed the special recommendations which directly target decision makers and the policymaking process. We are convinced the conference and these proceedings will give an overview of stateof-the-art research on land use and water management, which will contribute to sustainable development in China. 338

339 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 建立可持续的土地利用和水资源管理体系 2008 年 10 月 8 日 10 日在中国北京召开的 可持续的土地利用和水资源管理 中国环境可持续发展生态研究项目 (ERSEC) 国际会议的总结 1. 背景 这本摘要概述了 2008 年 10 月 8 日 10 日在中国北京召开的 中国环境可持续发展生态研究项目 (ERSEC) 可持续的土地利用和水资源管理国际会议 的成果 这次会议是在由德国联邦政府教育研究部资助和联合国教科文组织北京办事处实施的 中国环境可持续发展生态研究项目 (ERSEC) 总体框架下举办的 这次会议专注于提升和应用科研成果, 为可持续的土地利用和水资源管理建立更好的机制, 这也反映了 ERSEC 项目旨在以生态考量影响中国的决策过程的总体目标 这次会议也为来自中国 德国和世界其他国家的专家提供了一个互动的平台, 使他们能够分享和整合多学科的观点 尽管这次会议的多数代表来自项目的两个东道国德国和中国, 代表的范围却很广泛, 包括从科学和研究到经济和管理部门的学者专家 中国拥有超过世界五分之一的人口, 可耕地面积却不到全球耕地总面积的百分之七 中国的水资源缺乏伴随着每年大约百分之十的经济增长率和快速的城市化进程 这些都使得中国的地貌发生着急剧的变化, 并对社会, 经济和环境产生深远影响 尽管中国已取得的经济成就使得决策者能够制定更加协调的, 面向可持续发展的政策, 但人口的增长和经济的发展仍然对自然资源和环境持续造成重大压力 因此, 急需以知识为基础的解决办法来推动可持续的土地利用管理 而土地利用的问题是同水资源管理紧密相连的 为了达到这一目的, 很有必要将土地利用和水资源管理结合起来, 并且在中国建立可持续的土地利用和水资源管理体系 在此大背景下, 与会专家的研究成果集中在以下方面 : 1. 整合土地利用和水资源管理 2. 可持续土地利用和水资源管理的技术和组织创新 3. 土地利用和水资源管理的制度框架和管理实践 科学和技术在为可持续利用资源, 创造有效的知识方面发挥着重要作用 在技术 339

340 ERSEC conference proceeding 创新提供解决之道的同时, 在相应的政策框架内整合和传播科学知识将有助于开发出制度的基础, 这对于规划和实施可持续的土地利用和水资源管理是十分必要的 2. 大会纪要 本章中的内容按照与会专家, 组织者和听众所讨论和提出的主要问题和关注点进行排列 建立可持续的土地利用和水资源管理体系 通过节水灌溉减少水资源使用的强度 气候变化及土地面积的变化挑战水资源系统 麻风树在可持续的土地利用和食品 能源安全中的作用 有机废物的循环系统 通过对有机废物的有效处理最大限度减少流行病的风险 沼气和有机肥的结合能最好的保护水资源 可持续利用土地和水资源的创新型观念和方法 土地利用和流域管理的方法 : 规划 / 决策支持系统和地理信息数据 人工控制洪水对河岸带森林可持续发展的作用 分散型非结构性的防洪措施 将生态 经济和社会因素整合进 土地利用规划 来改善水土保持 以地理信息系统为基础的工具对可持续和多样化的土地利用系统的作用 土地利用和水资源管理的制度框架和社会经济状况 建立在土地利用数据基础上的分散式污水和雨水管理模式 本土社会制度对可持续的地下水灌溉和辖区管理的作用 农业的多功能性成为一种新的农村范例 将农村的社会经济发展整合进其水资源管理中 中国农村土地所有权改革需要结合经济 立法和其他软性措施 租赁制是土地利用政策很好的支持手段 德国水资源框架指标 一种地区经济效果的模式 改善粮食生产和维护环境质量 中国粮食高产量的挑战需要制度和个体共同行动 340

341 Sustainable Land Use and Water Management 德国农业氮平衡的计算 氮肥管理在中国集约化农业可持续和资源节约型生产中的作用 氮循环的模式可以作为氮肥施用量建议和对地下水及一氧化二氮排放影响情景计算的工具 综合性土地利用和水资源管理的可持续解决方案 应用定性和定量的模式, 结合气候及社会经济情景, 评估其对农业和食品安全等的影响, 借助空间决策支持系统设计应对措施 结合土地和水资源管理, 维持土地 水资源和生态系统的健康及食品安全 综合性土地利用和水资源管理的案例研究 中德合作教育研究项目 : 华北平原资源的可持续利用 北京密云水库流域林区水资源保护的可持续发展 促进大湄公河次区域可持续的土地利用 减轻中国西北地区的缺水状况 : 公共投资, 现代灌溉技术和提高水价 大会特别建议 应当建立综合性的可持续土地利用和水资源管理体系 气候变化会导致复杂的土地和水资源管理系统 : 存在许多知识的范例和理解 综合性模型的方法应该涉及未来土地利用和气候变化的所有相关的必要条件 必须为农村开发出适合当地特殊后勤条件的技术和战略, 以确保生态系统功能, 动植物保护和社会经济发展的安全 经济 立法和软性措施相结合能帮助农民自觉的将环境成本纳入生产决定中 系统动力模型有助于获得对可持续政策的全面看法 为增加粮食产量而加大有效灌溉, 农业教育和延伸服务的技术投资十分必要 急需一种有效的工具向农民传播信息和转让最优方法的专门知识 有效采用充分的物理 生物技术或者化学处理能最大限度的减少与使用污水 底泥或动物粪肥等有机废物相关的流行病的风险 通过将三种关键因素 生态, 经济和社会整合进 土地利用规划系统 能够可持续的改善水土保持 基于地理信息系统的工具能显示土地利用经济 社会和生态层面的影响及其结果, 这有助于建立可持续和多样化的土地利用系统 有必要对集中式和分散式的土地利用和水资源管理进行比较性经济分析 中国应该遵循更加环境友好的发展政策和维持食品安全 更多的考虑经济 社会和气候变化的因素以获得对水资源和土地利用的全面了解十分重要 341

342 ERSEC conference proceeding 科学家必须成为跨学科方法的开启者 在为期三天的会议期间, 与会者深入讨论了土地利用和水资源管理的关键问题, 内容包括经济和社会, 政策和制度, 技术和手段等方方面面 他们相互整合和交换了自己的研究成果 在此背景下, 主要的评论形成了建设性的意见 根据这些讨论和意见, 形成了直接针对决策者和决策过程的特别建议 我们相信这次会议及其论文集将概括土地利用和水资源管理方面最新的研究成果, 将对中国正在实施的可持续发展有所贡献 342

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