By: Dr. Mohammad Rahimi

Transcription

1 CAgM Expert Team (ET) on Drought and Extreme Temperatures: Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Rangelands, Forestry, and Fisheries Feb.2009, Beijing, China Report Of Rapporteur for RA II By: Dr. Mohammad Rahimi I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO)

2 Introduction A survey was carried out by sending a questionnaire via WMO to all members to collect information from RA II countries. We received completed questionnaire from 18 members. However, we did not received reply from 17 other members.so All the country members have not been analyzed in RA II, accordingly, and survey responses reflect the current condition of 18 members.

3 RA II Members We received completed questionnaire from 18 countries including Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, China, I.R. of I.R. of Iran, Islamic Republic of, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Stan, Macao, China, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation,Saudi Arabia,Sri Lanka, Thailand, United Arab Emirates,and Uzbekistan. Of course PR of Macao, China with WMO informed us that there are no Agrometeorology is practiced so the questionnaire is not applicable in Macao.

4 Regional characteristics Asia is the most populous continent. Its total population in 2002 was reported about 3,902 million, of which almost 61% is rural and 38.5% lives along 100 km of the coast. The coastline of Asia is 283,188 km long.

5 Observed climatic trends, and extreme events Past and present climatic trends and variability in Asia are generally characterized by increasing surface air temperature which is more pronounced during winter than in summer. The observed increases in some parts of Asia during recent decades ranged between less than 1 C to 3 C per century. Increases in surface temperature are most pronounced in North Asia.

6 Observed climatic trends, and extreme events Decreasing trends in annual mean rainfall are observed in Russia, North-East and North China, coastal belts and arid plains of Pakistan, parts of North-East India, Indonesia, Philippines and some areas in Japan. Annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Western China, Changjiang Valley and the South- Eastern coast of China, Bangladesh and along the western coasts of the Philippines.

7 Observed changes in extreme climatic events In South-East Asia, extreme weather events associated with El- Ni o were reported to be more frequent and intense in the past 20 years. Significantly longer heat wave duration has been observed in many countries of Asia, as indicated by pronounced warming trends and several cases of severe heat waves.

8 Observed changes in extreme climatic events Generally, the frequency of occurrence of more intense rainfall events in many parts of Asia has increased, causing severe floods, while the number of rainy days and total annual amount of precipitation has decreased. However, there are reports that the frequency of extreme rainfall in some countries has exhibited a decreasing tendency.

9 Observed changes in extreme climatic events Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in many parts of Asia are attributed largely to a rise in temperature, particularly during the summer and normally drier months, and during ENSO events. In parts of China, the rise in temperature and decreases in precipitation, along with increasing water use have caused water shortages that led to drying up of lakes and rivers.

10 Observed changes in extreme climatic events In India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, water shortages have been attributed to rapid urbanization and industrialization, population growth and inefficient water use, which are aggravated by changing climate and its adverse impacts on demand, supply and water quality.

11 Observed changes in extreme climatic events In arid Central and West Asia, changes in climate and its variability continue to challenge the ability of countries in the arid and semi-arid region to meet the growing demands for water.

12 Observed changes in extreme climatic events Decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature commonly associated with ENSO have been reported to increase water shortage, particularly in parts of Asia where water resources are already under stress from growing water demands and inefficiencies in water use.

13 Frequency & severity of droughts Drought has been involved in the most damage to the agricultural products in most of region countries, especially in recent years such as 1999, 2000, 2002, The damage was occurred in different parts of agricultural activities including irrigated lands, rangelands, forestry and fisheries.

14 Frequency & severity of droughts The earliest summer in Mongolia was in 2002 which was more than 70% all territory under abnormal drought condition during the summer season. Yield decreasing because of drought was reported from most of countries. It seams that the most effective droughts have been occurred in 2000 and after that.

15 Heat waves In the next grade the heat waves and frost also imposed damage on agricultural products. Heat waves were reported from I.R. of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong China, Uzbekistan, and Pakistan. A heat wave in 2003 in southern China and in 2006 in Sichuan and Chongqing were reported also. Totally among many disasters in RA II countries, drought, Heat wave, Frost and dust storm are the most threatened on agriculture section.

16 Most Affected Areas Many sectors such as agriculture, rangeland, forestry, and fisheries have been affected from drought and extreme events. Regarding the ranking the damage in these sectors. In all of the countries the agriculture section is the most affected sectors. In the most of the countries the rangelands is the second area. In the third and fourth ranks forestry and fisheries sectors have been affected. In Korea, Seri Lanka, and Bangladesh the forestry section is the second rank and rangelands are the last rank.

17 Current status of monitoring Most of these countries use the official and reliable information which get them from well organized national and international organizations that developed for this propose as well. Many of them like I.R. of Iran, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Pakistan have especial centers for Disaster Risk Management.

18 Current status of monitoring 13 members Including Thailand, Kazakhstan, Korea, Sri Lanka, Hong Kong China, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Russian Federation, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, I.R. of I.R. of Iran, Lao PDR and China have an operational monitoring for drought & extreme temperature.

19 Drought Indices Different indices are used for drought monitoring by them. Some of these indices are shown in Table 2. In addition to these indices Satellite data and deciles and percent of precipitation, and Soil moisture are used. Among these indices SPI, PDSI and Crop Moisture Index are most frequent used indices

20 Drought Forecasting 7 members including Uzbekistan, Russian Federation, Pakistan, Thailand, Korea, I.R. of Iran, and China have also operational centers for drought forecasting. In order to forecast drought in these centers, Short and long range forecasts including seasonal forecasts via Numerical Weather prediction will be done. China uses statistical downscaling and preevaluation method for drought monitoring also. Early Warning Systems are also active on the base of these products.

21 Status of drought preparedness & drought coping strategies 8 RA II members including Thailand, Korea, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Russian Federation, Pakistan, and Lao PDR among 18 replied members prepare drought and extreme temperatures maps and high-risk zone analysis of the country.

22 Status of drought preparedness & drought coping strategies 8 RA II members including Thailand, Korea, Sri Lanka, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Russian Federation, Pakistan, and Lao PDR among 18 replied members prepare drought and extreme temperatures maps and high-risk zone analysis of the country.

23 Status of drought preparedness & drought coping strategies There are different copping strategies in RA II members in drought preparedness and coping. Of course in most of cases met. Service is not in the charge of this responsibility however provides responsible authorities such as agriculture ministry and water resources departments with required data and information including weather forecasts

24 Status of drought preparedness & drought coping strategies Thailand, Uzbekistan, Russian federation, Pakistan, I.R. of Iran, China, Lao PDR, Mongolia, and Sri Lanka have short term strategy such as seasonal outlook for drought preparedness. Kazakhstan and Bangladesh uses early warning methods also. Nepal is in the first steps of defining preparedness and copping strategy.

25 Status of drought preparedness & drought coping strategies In Hong Kong, transferring water from nearby places to drought affected areas and investigation on using new water resources including desalination and use of re-claimed water and also promotion of water conservation measures are some samples of their strategies.

26 Status of drought preparedness & drought coping strategies In some countries such as Pakistan, I.R. of Iran, Saudi Arabia also research institutes are engaged for recognizing drought resistant varieties and cropping patterns as long term strategies. UAE, Kirgiz Republic, Korea and Qatar did not provide us with information in this regard.

27 Strengths & weaknesses of existing national drought policies Among 18 members, 13 members have a public weather services program related to drought and extreme temperatures. UAE, Qatar, Nepal, Bangladesh and Kirgiz Republic still have not PWS services for drought and extreme temperatures

28 Strengths & weaknesses of existing national drought policies In delivering critical products and services for drought risk reduction most of the members have some limitation in resources and infrastructures such as Professional staff, Computers, Network equipment, Communication facilities, Internet access, Financial resources, and Operational soft wares.

29 Strengths & weaknesses of existing national drought policies All of the members welcomed to improve their drought risk reduction activities to do better coordination with neighboring or adjacent countries in the areas of early warning, data exchange and training activities, exchange of experts, joint and cost sharing projects targeted at drought and extreme in order to regional drought monitoring.

30 Strengths & weaknesses of existing national drought policies Regarding activities related to future climate change scenarios, 11 members have activities in different ways. Most of the members have policy supports in capacity building for agrometeorology.

31 Limititions According to the results all the members have financial resources, and Operational soft wares limitations. The Professional staff is also an important issue. The Computers, Network equipment, Communication facilities are in the next priorities. Internet access is the less important item.

32 Conclusion and Recommendations According to the replies the drought has been involved in the most damage to the agricultural products in most of RA II countries, especially in recent years such as 1999, 2000, 2002, The damage was occurred in different parts of agricultural activities including irrigated lands, rangelands, forestry and fisheries.

33 Conclusion and Recommendations In the subject of Current status of monitoring and predicting droughts, most of the members have an operational monitoring for drought & extreme temperature and it is necessary that other members also to provide such a actions. However only 7 members; including Uzbekistan, Russian Federation, Pakistan, Thailand, Korea, I.R. of Iran, and China have also operational centers for drought forecasting.

34 Conclusion and Recommendations Only 9 countries Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Russian Federation, Pakistan, Lao PDR, and I.R. of Iran, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and China do Seasonal outlooks of probabilities of potential drought. Regarding data, almost all of countries have their own meteorological observation data and some of them required to use other international data banks.

35 Conclusion and Recommendations Regarding drought preparedness & drought coping strategies, most of the countries need to be worked more on this regard especially in long term coping strategies. Most of the RA II members have a public weather services program related to drought and extreme temperatures. The most important limitations in all of the countries are limited financial resources, Operational soft wares and professional staffs in order

36 Conclusion and Recommendations It seems in overall that most of the RA II countries are in a good condition regarding to Drought and extreme events data bank, forecasting and early warnings, coping strategies. Only in the area of activities related to future climate change scenarios, most of members have not involved to run models for different future climate change scenarios for their own countries and the link between the results of models and pre-planning of national development programs.

37 Snowy Great Wall

38 Thank you for your Consideration