REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AGRICULTURE SECTOR REVIEW

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1 Final Report REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AGRICULTURE SECTOR REVIEW January 14, 2003

2 ii CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Yugoslav Dinar 1 YUD =.0154 US$ US$ 1 = 65.1 YUD ACRONYMS AMS AK CAP CEEC DCR EIU EU FOSC FRY GDP HDI IARA ISTA MAFWM MCO MPNRE MSTD NBFI NBY O&M OM&R RoS SFRY SME SOE SPS SWA USAID WUA WTO Aggregate measure of support Agro-kombinat Common Agricultural Policy (of the European Union) Central and Eastern European Countries Directorate for Commodity Reserves Economic Intelligence Unit European Union Farmers Organizations Support Center Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Gross domestic product Human development indicator Institute for Applied Research in Agriculture International Seed Testing Association Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management Micro-credit organization Ministry for Protection of Natural Resources and Environment Ministry of Science, Technology and Development Non-bank financial institution National Bank of Yugoslavia Operations and maintenance Operations, maintenance and rehabilitation Republic of Serbia Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia Small and medium-scale enterprises State-owned enterprise Sanitary and phytosanitary services Srbijavode Water Authority United States Agency for International Development Water Users' Association World Trade Organization

3 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS... ii ACRONYMS... ii TABLE OF CONTENTS... iii FIGURES, BOXES AND TABLES...v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...vi The Context for Sector Development...vi Priorities for Action...ix I. INTRODUCTION...1 II. THE CONTEXT FOR SECTOR DEVELOPMENT...3 POLITICAL CHANGE...3 THE MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT...3 AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND TRADE POLICY...3 DIRECT SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURE...5 Agricultural Price Policy and Subsidies...6 The Directorate for Commodity Reserves...7 RURAL FINANCE AND INVESTMENT...8 PRIVATIZATION...9 LAND OWNERSHIP, LAND MARKETS AND LAND USE...10 RURAL POVERTY...12 Agricultural Policy, Budget Expenditure and Rural Poverty...12 LESSONS FROM REGIONAL EXPERIENCE OF REFORM...13 CURRENT STATE OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION...15 III. INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY AND COMPETITIVENESS: PRIORITIES FOR ACTION...17 REFORM TRADE AND INCENTIVE POLICIES...18 Continued Trade Liberalization...18 Reform of Direct Support for Agriculture...18 STRENGTHEN FARM COMMODITY AND INPUT MARKETING SYSTEMS...19 Input Supply...19 COOPERATIVES AND FARMER ORGANIZATIONS...20 Policy and Legislation for Cooperatives and Farmer Organizations...20 Old and New-Style Cooperatives and Farmer Organizations...21 A Transition and Support Program...21 REJUVENATE THE FOOD MARKETING CHAIN...22 Arrival of International Supermarkets...22 Constraints and Prospects for Agro-Processing...23 Marketing Links and Contractual Relationships...24 IMPROVE ACCESS TO RURAL FINANCE...25 PRIVATIZE AND RESTRUCTURE STATE AND SOCIALLY-OWNED ENTERPRISES...26

4 iv Privatization of Agro-Industrial Enterprises...26 Privatization of AKs and Land Restitution...27 STRENGTHEN LAND MARKETS...28 INSTITUTIONAL REFORM...29 Policy Analysis...29 Sanitary and Phytosanitary Services...30 Agricultural Extension...30 Agricultural Research...31 Prioritizing and Sequencing Institutional Reform...32 RESTORE IRRIGATION, DRAINAGE AND FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS...33 Irrigation...33 Drainage and Flood Protection...33 Water Management and Pricing...34 Planning for the Irrigation Sub-Sector and Donor Support...35 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT...35 Regional Classification...36 Regional Priorities...38 IV. LOOKING AHEAD: POST-REFORM AGRICULTURE IN SERBIA...40 ANNEX 1: ACTION PLAN REPUBLIC of SERBIA...43 ANNEX 2: RECOMMENDED SUPPORT FOR IRRIGATION, DRAINAGE AND FLOOD PROTECTION...46 ANNEX 3. STATISTICAL INDICATORS...48

5 v FIGURES, BOXES AND TABLES FIGURES AND BOXES Figure 1. Trends in Aggregate Output, FRY...1 Figure 2. Trends in Agricultural Terms of Trade, Republic of Serbia...6 Figure 3. Regional Classification: Republic of Serbia...41 Box 1. What is a Cooperative?...20 Box 2. Land Management in Serbia...28 TABLES Table 1. Comparative Statistics: Republics of Serbia and Montenegro...48 Table 2. Macro-Economic Indicators: FRY...49 Table 3. Trends in Agricultural Trade: FRY...50 Table 4. Trade in Selected Agricultural Commodities: Republic of Serbia...50 Table 5. Tariff and Non-Tariff Trade Measures for Agricultural Products: Republic of Serbia...51 Table 6. Nominal Protection for Selected Agricultural Commodities: Republic of Serbia, Table 7. Budget Expenditure for Agriculture: Republic of Serbia...54 Table 8. Agricultural Price and Subsidy Policies: Republic of Serbia, Table 9. Structure of Socially- and State-Owned Agro-Industrial Enterprises...56 Table 10. Characteristics of Majority and Minority Privately-Owned Enterprises...56 Table 11. Distribution of Land by Type of Ownership: FRY...57 Table 12. Characteristics of the Rural Population: FRY, Table 13. Characteristics of Household Income and Expenditure: Republic of Serbia, Table 14. Poverty Indicators: Republic of Serbia...58 Table 15. Commodity Support and Marketed Surplus by Region...59 Table 16. Trends in Agricultural Land Use: Republic of Serbia...59 Table 17. Crop Production: Republic of Serbia...60 Table 18. Livestock Production: Republic of Serbia...61 Table 19. Selected Indicators of Agricultural Performance: FRY...62 Table 20. Trends in Agricultural Producer Prices: Republic of Serbia...62 Table 21. Regional Characteristics: Republic of Serbia...63 Table 22. Land Use Characteristics by Region, 1999: Republic of Serbia...64 Table 23. Livestock Numbers by Region: Republic of Serbia...65 Table 24. Agricultural Marketing and Processing by Region: Republic of Serbia...65

6 vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Already a major component of the economy of the Republic of Serbia (RoS), agriculture also has considerable scope for increased production and efficiency. With appropriate policies and support it could become a powerful engine of economic growth. This review describes the issues and constraints which the sector faces, and outlines an action plan for recovery and growth. 2. Agriculture s importance to the economy is both deep and diverse. Primary production from agriculture, hunting and forestry accounted for 21 percent of GDP in 1999, second only to manufacturing (24 percent). If the food and beverage processing activities associated with agriculture are added to primary production, agriculture is the largest sector in the economy with 25 percent of GDP. Approximately 44 percent of the population live in rural areas, of whom onethird rely wholly or in part on agriculture for their livelihoods. Exports of primary agricultural products, processed food, beverages and tobacco products accounted for percent of total exports in 2000 and 2001, second only to the exports of other manufactured goods. 3. Sector development has been severely impeded during the last 20 years by socialist policies, the break-up of former Yugoslavia, and the economic distortions and political problems of the Milosevic era. Agricultural output has been far below its potential as a result. These influences have also depleted the capital base of farmers and agro-processors, and led to inefficient production and public institutions that are ill-suited to a market economy. Yet unlike the rest of the economy, agricultural output has already recovered to pre-1990 levels. This recovery is indicative of its strong underlying resource base and the considerable potential for further growth. The Context for Sector Development 4. The broad macro-economic context for sector development has improved substantially since the end of the Milosevic era. Economic recovery has been rapid and the medium-term outlook is for continued growth. Inflation is falling and is expected to be below 15% by the end of 2003, and the exchange rate is stable. Economic recovery remains fragile nevertheless. The budget and trade deficits are high, the banking sector is weak, and RoS has substantial debt commitments. Unemployment is also high and privatization is slow. The political situation creates further uncertainty, first, associated with the newly formed entity of Serbia and Montenegro and, second, with the outcome of elections expected in The donor community remains committed to support for economic and political reform however, and eager to further the progress made to date. The general outlook is thus favorable for the agricultural sector, with increasing demand for food and agricultural commodities and greater price stability. 5. The progress with economic reform has included key initial reforms to agricultural trade policy. The maximum tariff has been reduced from 40 percent to 30 percent, and the tariff structure simplified. But most agricultural commodities continue to benefit from the maximum protection rates of 20 percent and 30 percent, and trade policy remains a major form of support for producer prices. Additional unit tariffs have been reduced, from a maximum of about 20 percent (tariff equivalent) to 15 percent. However export quotas for 31 basic agricultural commodities remain, including wheat, maize, flour, sugar, soybean and sunflower. Government also reintroduced export subsidies in This is not only ill-advised in its own right but also inconsistent with the use of export quotas and Serbia s application for membership of the WTO.

7 vii 6. Serbian agricultural exports are substantial and there is considerable potential for increase. Nominal protection coefficients indicate a comparative advantage for high-value berry fruit in EU markets, and cereal and oilseed products in regional markets, particularly to neighboring countries of the former Yugoslavia. Processed food products also have established export markets in these countries. Moreover, regional trade opportunities are expanding rapidly, driven by economic recovery in the CEECs, a proliferation of bilateral trade agreements, and improved access to EU markets under the SAA. A more open trade policy is needed to respond to these opportunities. 7. Producer prices were kept at below parity levels during the Milosevic regime, in order to keep food prices low. The new Ministry of Agriculture (MAFWM) has thus placed considerable emphasis on raising producer prices, through the removal of price controls and various forms of direct support. Producer prices have risen as a consequence, without the need for public floor price schemes, and agricultural terms of trade have improved. This increase in prices has not enhanced competitiveness however, as there has been no associated increase in productivity. 8. Direct budget support for agriculture is moderate at 3-5 percent of total budget expenditure, but is rising in line with general budget expenditure. Subsidies account for almost 60 percent of the 2002 agriculture budget, with most subsidies targeted to milk, sugarbeet and tobacco. These subsidies raise the incomes of farmers with a marketed surplus, but do little to help producers to improve yields, product quality or marketing efficiency. It is also difficult to justify the weak budget allocation to the public institutions responsible for research and extension. The priorities for budget support need review. Soft budget support to state and socially-owned agricultural enterprises continues through non-enforcement of debt obligations in the banking system. 9. Further direct support to agriculture comes from the Directorate for Commodity Reserves (DCR), an independent agency responsible for price support, market stabilization and strategic food stocks. Wheat is the major commodity transacted, and the DCR buys at least half of the marketed surplus at prices slightly above border prices. Under the new government the DCR has also become actively involved in the provision of seasonal inputs and farm machinery, which are transferred to farmers on a barter basis. These activities create significant distortions and inhibit private sector activity in the markets for rural credit, farm products, machinery and farm inputs. 10. Of the 570 medium- and large-scale socially- and cooperatively-owned enterprises in the agro-industrial sector in Serbia, 60 percent are involved in primary production and the rest are agro-processing or agro-service enterprises. Many of these enterprises were involved in earlier MEBO privatization programs in 1989 and 1997, although most (90%) are still less than 50% privately owned and have yet to change substantially. The main impact of the earlier privatization programs was to disaggregate the former agro-industrial complexes into independent business entities. This disaggregation will facilitate privatization of agro-processing and agri-service enterprises as they are now more focused and transparent and less subject to land ownership disputes. A concomitant land restitution program during the 1990s, had a similar impact on the agro-kombinats, leaving them much smaller and focused on primary production. 11. Serbia s current privatization program applies to all socially- and cooperatively-owned enterprises in the agro-industrial sector. It involves international tenders for the largest and most attractive enterprises, auctions for smaller and less attractive but still viable enterprises, and sales of the remaining enterprises after restructuring (by bankruptcy/liquidation). To minimize MEBOs, 70 percent of shares will be offered to a strategic investor, and the rest either allocated to employees (for auctions) or split between employees and the Privatization Register (for tenders). Most agro-industrial enterprises will be privatized by auction and viable agroprocessing and agri-business enterprises are expected to sell quickly. AK privatisation will be

8 viii more protracted and difficult. Government has yet to legislatively clarify the future status of AK land use and ownership rights, and a further program of land restitution is under way. 12. Deepseated problems in the factor markets for land and credit present significant mediumterm constraints to agriculture sector growth. Although private farmers own most of the agricultural land, their farms are very small (2-5 ha) and fragmented. Weak land markets limit the ability to consolidate and enlarge these farms, other than through informal leasing. A disjointed property registration system, inefficient land administration, and weak private sector involvement in property markets all contribute to this situation. On-farm production efficiency is reduced as a result, and will remain constrained until land markets strengthen. 13. Rural credit markets are even weaker. The banking system collapsed during the Milosevic era and is only now beginning to re-emerge under the guidance of a World Bank support program. Credit is limited as a consequence and producers and processors have minimal access to the capital they need for seasonal finance and investment. The in-kind credit program implemented by the DCR is the only substantive institutional response to this problem thus far, a response which inhibits rather than encourages development of the private bank and non-bank financial institutions needed to resolve this constraint. 14. Both rural and urban poverty increased during the Milosevic era, although rural poverty is less pervasive. Nevertheless, 29% of the rural population, approximately one million rural people, are below the poverty line of $US2/day. Of these, 430,000 rural people live in extreme poverty. Rural poverty is highest where farmers are older, or living in remote areas; among farmers with very small farms and/or low fertility land; and in minority rural populations. It is also high in southern Serbia. Economic reform and current agricultural policies benefit wealthy, market oriented farmers. Poorer, subsistence-oriented farmers with little to sell derive little benefit from higher producer prices and subsidies. In the short-term, privatization of rural enterprises will also deepen rural poverty. Policies directed towards employment creation, improved access to social services and targeted social assistance are more appropriate responses. 15. The experience of other CEECs with agricultural sector reform can substantially inform Serbia s response to the issues and constraints described above. To begin, it appears that the rapid, overall liberalisation and macro-economic stability achieved since reform began will do much to help Serbian agriculture avoid the initial contraction experienced by other CEECs. What other lessons can be used to guide recovery? 16. The first is that economic liberalisation must continue and macro-economic stability be preserved. These are the pre-conditions for successful institutional reform, foreign direct investment and better access to capital and technology. Poland and Hungary met these preconditions and benefitted accordingly. Slow liberalization and privatization, and the maintenance of soft budget constraints predispose to weak, faltering sector recovery -- as observed in Romania and Croatia. Access to rural credit, and clearly defined, readily transferrable land use rights are also critical. Failure to achieve these latter goals inevitably slows productivity growth. 17. Where these pre-conditions are met, sector recovery is ultimately driven by productivity increases. Among socially-owned enterprises productivity increases occur through lower labor and input use, and are greatest where hard budget constraints are imposed. Productivity increases on small farms result from higher yields and more cost-effective input use. Finally, the experience of Poland and Hungary shows the importance of establishing new institutions for product exchange and contract enforcement, which are effective even when public institutions are weak. These institutions are often imported as a result of foreign direct investment.

9 ix Priorities for Action 18. Serbia faces a very different context for sector recovery and growth compared to other CEECs at the beginning of reform. Regional markets in the EU, Central Europe and the CIS countries are expanding rather than contracting, and regional trade is being actively promoted through the SAA. This opening up of regional markets will also lead to increased competition on domestic markets. Given the demonstrated capacity of Serbian agricultural products to compete on domestic and regional markets, immediate priority should be given to measures which strengthen the ability of private sector agents to respond to these market challenges. The emphasis should be on developing appropriate incentive structures, strengthening marketing institutions and marketing chains, and providing producers and processors with the operating and investment capital they need to increase productivity and output. Specific priorities include: (1) Continue reform of trade and incentive policies. All export quotas and export subsidies should be abolished and effective levels of protection further reduced. These policy reforms should be driven by the requirements for WTO membership rather than EU policy. Alignment with EU trade policy and the CAP should be viewed as a medium- to long-term goal, to be pursued once EU accession is more imminent. Future public expenditure should be allocated on the basis of well-defined sector objectives and priorities that are consistent with the role of government in a market economy. Direct support should be used to increase productivity rather than prices and should be more poverty oriented. Public responsibilities such as border control, plant and animal health, research, training and education should receive a high priority for support, together with the adoption of EU standards. The DCR s role should also change. In the short term, reform should include a reduction of the number of commodities in DCR's mandate, a parallel reduction of the level of strategic stocks, and an increase in the transparency of DCR's activities. It should also cease to provide farm inputs and seasonal credit. The medium-term objective should be to transfer responsibility for commodity support to the MAFWM and limit the DCR's mandate to civil emergencies. (2) Strengthen farm commodity and input marketing systems. A new policy and legislative framework is needed to strengthen the role of (new-style) farmer cooperatives and organisations in commodity and farm input marketing systems, together with a support centre to assist old-style cooperatives to restructure and new farmer groups to develop. (3) Rejuvenate the food marketing chain. A support system is needed to assist agro-processors to build effective marketing links with producers and food retail outlets (including international supermarkets). In addition to restructuring and new product development, this support should include the introduction of new contractual arrangements between producers, processors and food retail outlets. (4) Improve access to rural finance. A broad-based technical assistance program is needed to develop viable investment proposals among prospective borrowers, strengthen the capacity for agricultural loan appraisal among lenders, and to support the establishment of viable bank and non-bank

10 x financial institutions in rural areas. Where appropriate, this should be supported with donor credit lines. 19. An associated set of short-term actions is needed to begin reform of the public enterprises, institutions and infrastructure which influence the capacity of private sector agents to respond to market challenges. These measures include: (1) Complete the privatization and restructuring of agro-kombinats and agro-processors. Although privatisation lies outside the direct ambit of the MAFWM, the process can be supported by providing technical assistance to support the restructuring of state and socially-owned agricultural enterprises. (2) Strengthen land markets. A broad-based technical assistance program is needed to restructure the property registration system, develop a national real-estate cadastre and strengthen the private sector institutions involved in property markets. Initial priority shoud be given to measures which clarify land ownership and use rights for private farmers and AKs, and accelerate land restitution. (3) Initiate reform of public institutions for agricultural support. Short-term priorities include strengthening the capacity for policy analysis, alignment of SPS legislation with the acquis communautaire, upgrading and rationalization of the laboratory system, upgrading border control facilities and procedures, support for private sector extension initiatives, and the preparation of national strategies for research and AKIS (4) Rehabilitate drainage canals. A limited program to rehabilitate drainage canals would provide a cost-effective way to improve drainage, improve flood control and allow irrigation in the areas near the canals. 20. Finally, a more broad-based, medium to long-term set of actions is needed to: (1) Complete the reform of public institutions for agricultural support and land administration: Medium-term priorities include the privatization of veterinary services, the seed industry, and the commercial activities of extension and research stations; the establishment of new institutional structures for extension, research and food safety; and implementation of the national strategies for research and AKIS. (2) Promote regional development. The diverse nature of rural Serbia means that policy priorities must be regionally differentiated in order to be effective. In Vojvodina, priority should be given to privatization and land restitution. Support for private sector development should be a major focus of agricultural policy in Central Serbia. A broader policy framework, based on rural livelihoods, is needed in Southern Serbia where rural communities and municipalities should be the focus of action, and the emphasis should be on employment creation and income diversification. (3) Restore the physical and institutional infrastructure for irrigation, drainage and flood control.

11 xi Flood protection should be undertaken by a separate agency rather than the water companies. The substantial backlog of irrigation and drainage maintenance will require major investment. It is essential that clear levels of ownership and responsibility for maintenance are defined, such as what organization is responsible for the cleaning of each level of canal. Water companies should be restructured to become fully selffinancing. Future investments in new and rehabilitated irrigation and drainage facilities need to be determined on the basis of economic analysis relating water costs to returns. Water Users' Associations should be established on a demand-driven approach rather than by imposing cooperation. Existing cooperatives should be transformed into independent organizations under farmer ownership and control.

12 1 I. INTRODUCTION 1. Already a major component of the economy of the Republic of Serbia (RoS), agriculture also has considerable scope for increased production and efficiency. With appropriate policies and support it could become a powerful engine of economic growth. This report reviews the opportunities for and constraints to growth within the agriculture sector, and identifies priorities for action. Where possible, analysis is based on data specific to RoS (excluding Kosovo). Otherwise, the analysis is based on data for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). As Serbia accounts for more than 90 percent of the economy of FRY (Annex 3, Table 1), this use of aggregate data does not substantially change the analysis. 2. The agriculture sector s historical strength and resilience is evident from trends in output relative to GDP over the period Unlike the rest of the economy, agricultural output has already recovered to pre-1990 levels (Figure 1), despite severely limited access to farm inputs and the collapse of traditional markets. As a result of this recovery and the collapse of other sectors of the economy (notably manufacturing), agriculture s contribution to GDP has increased substantially. Primary production from agriculture, hunting and forestry accounted for 21 percent of GDP in 1999, second only to manufacturing (24 percent). If the food and beverage processing activities associated with agriculture are added to primary production, then agriculture is the largest sector in the economy of the former FRY, with about 25 percent of GDP Agriculture s contribution to the economy is as broad as it is deep. Approximately 44 percent of the population live in rural areas, of whom one-third rely wholly or in part on agriculture for their livelihoods. Large tracts of fertile land, particularly in the Vojvodina region, allow the production of most food commodities and assured an adequate food supply throughout the economic and political turmoil of the 1990s. Exports of primary agricultural products, processed food, beverages and tobacco products accounted for percent of total exports in 2000 and 2001, second only to the exports of other manufactured goods. Some 200,000 people (10 percent of the work force) are employed in agro-processing and agricultural service industries. Food-processing enterprises are the Figure 1. Trends in Aggregate Output: FRY Indices (1980=100) GDP Agricultural Output

13 2 largest single employer in the industrial sector, with 84,300 employees in Sector development has been severely impeded during the last 20 years by socialist policies, the break-up of former Yugoslavia, and the economic distortions and political problems of the Milosevic era ( ). Agricultural output has been and continues to be far below its potential as a result. Twenty years of mismanagement have also severely depleted the capital base of farmers and agro-processors, led to inefficient production systems divorced from trends in world commodity markets, and resulted in public institutions that are ill-suited to the operation of a market economy. 5. These constraints to sector growth and development were identified in the World Bank/EU Report Breaking with the Past (2001), which was prepared for the international community to guide initial pledges of support for recovery and reform in the former FRY. The report also identified the following axes for responding to these constraints: Establishment of a more appropriate incentive structure for production, marketing and trade; Promotion of private sector activity and investment in production, processing and marketing. Modernization and strengthening of public agricultural institutions. 6. This review provides an in-depth analysis of these imperatives and presents recommendations as to how they should be addressed through support for policy reform, private sector investment and capacity building. Chapter II summarizes the context for sector development and identifies the issues that constrain growth in production and processing and inhibit factor and commodity markets. Regional experience of agricultural reform in other CEECs is also discussed, plus a brief review of rural poverty. The major areas for action are prioritized and discussed in Chapter III, including an analysis of regional issues. Chapter IV considers the potential impact of this action plan on postreform agriculture in Serbia. 7. The review is intended to improve understanding of the rural economy by the government and by donor organizations. It will assist the government to formulate an effective medium-term strategy for the sector and to design a sound borrowing program, financed by the World Bank and other donors, in support of this strategy. As such, the review provides an important reference point for both public investment and donor co-ordination. 1 Data reported in this paragraph are from the Statistical Yearbook of Yugoslavia, 2001.

14 3 II. THE CONTEXT FOR SECTOR DEVELOPMENT POLITICAL CHANGE 8. In March 2002, the governments of Yugoslavia and its two constituent parts, Serbia and Montenegro, agreed to replace the federal republic with a state to be called the Union of Serbia and Montenegro. Each republic would retain its own currency, tax and budgetary systems, customs services, banking systems and financial supervision, but the two republics would form a common market with free movement of people, goods, services and capital. The republics also agreed to harmonize their respective trade and customs policies by aligning them with the economic system of the EU. This new constitutional structure is expected to come into full effect early in FRY or its successor will then negotiate a Stability and Association Agreement with the EU, negotiating as a single entity. 9. The new constitution would have widespread implications for the policies and institutions linked to agriculture. Trade, price and subsidy policies will remain Republic-level responsibilities in the short term. But the two Republics will need to re-formulate and align these policies during the next months, as membership of the WTO will have to be negotiated as a single entity. Similarly, the policies and procedures applied by the institutions responsible for border control, animal health, phytosanitary control, plant breeding and food safety will be unified through alignment with the EU. The new common market will also strengthen traditional trading links between the food surplus areas of the Republic of Serbia and the food-deficit Republic of Montenegro. THE MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 10. Macroeconomic conditions are reviewed in the context of aggregate trends for the two Republics. Economic recovery began in 2000 with a 6-7 percent increase in real GDP (Annex 3, Table 2). This growth continued in 2001, despite continued contraction within the industrial sector, because the agriculture and service sectors recovered strongly. The outlook for is for growth of 5-6 percent. Output should continue to grow as investment increases, higher real wages strengthen domestic demand, and recovery begins in the industrial sector as obsolete capital stock is replaced. Inflation is also expected to decline, from percent at the end of 2001 to percent by the end of The exchange rate should also remain relatively stable. These trends favor growth of the agricultural sector by boosting domestic demand for food and agricultural commodities, reducing price instability and encouraging increased output of raw and processed agricultural goods. 11. Economic recovery remains fragile nevertheless. Despite steady progress with fiscal and monetary reform, the budget deficit is expected to increase significantly in 2002, unemployment is still high, the banking sector remains weak and privatization is slow. The trade deficit is forecast to grow from US$1.4 billion in 2000 to US$2.2 billion in 2002, before falling to an estimated US$1.9 billion in 2003 (EIU, 2001). This deficit, together with substantial debt commitments (even after debt rescheduling) means that Serbia will rely heavily on donor support and foreign direct investment to meet its foreign exchange commitments in the medium-term. The establishment of a stable, marketoriented economic policy framework conducive to foreign direct investment, active support for privatization, and sustained donor support will all be crucial for sustained growth. Measures to strengthen agriculture will reinforce growth and increase rural employment. AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND TRADE POLICY 12. Agricultural commodities account for a significant proportion (16-17 percent) of total Serbian exports. A wide range of crop and livestock products is exported, among which berry fruit, cereals,

15 4 meat products, edible oils and processed food are the most important (Annex 3, Tables 3 and 4). There is considerable potential to increase the export of many of these commodities. Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are the largest export markets, followed by Russia, Romania and the EU (Germany, Italy, France and Austria). Much of Serbia's recent trade with Russia and Romania has involved the exchange of wheat and maize for energy and fertilizer. A wide range of food and agricultural products is imported, with the EU as the largest source of imports. 13. Nominal protection coefficients are presented in Table 6 (Annex 3), as an indicator of the competitiveness of major agricultural products. Berry fruit is the most important export commodity, with an established presence in the markets of Western Europe due to its high quality and competitive price. There is also significant potential to increase export earnings from berry fruits, particularly as it is exempt from import duties under the current EU trade agreement. As most Serbian berry fruit is currently exported in bulk or packed under Western European labels, there is ample scope to add value to what is already a high-value commodity. Output can also be increased markedly by introducing new varieties and management systems. Note also that berry fruit production is ideally suited to small-holder production in many of the hilly areas of central and Southern Serbia. 14. Cereal exports are also significant, particularly maize. While not fully competitive with major Central European exporters such as Hungary, Serbian cereals are nevertheless competitive in neighboring Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo all of which have large structural cereal deficits. An increase in on-farm productivity (higher yields, lower production costs etc) would further improve the competitiveness of wheat and maize, and is readily attainable. Oilseed crops also have considerable potential for export, although the ability to realise this potential will depend on the extent to which processing efficiency can be improved. 15. A wide range of processed meat, fruit and vegetable products are exported to neighboring countries in the former Yugoslavia. Demand for such products is increasing in response to economic recovery and growth. Relatively low costs for raw materials and labour, plus long-standing market links will help to preserve these markets in the short-term, but Serbian products will inevitably face strong pressure from EU exports. Increased attention to production efficiency, marketing and product development will be essential if these products are to retain their market share. 16. Despite its demonstrable lack of competitiveness, sugar is currently being exported to the EU. The current trade agreement with the EU does not restrict sugar exports, and EU intervention prices are well above Serbian prices. This situation is clearly anomalous however, and will be reviewed by the EU in 2006, as part of a wider review of economic relations. 17. Under its wide-ranging program of economic reform, the new government of Serbia has markedly liberalized trade policy. The maximum tariff has been reduced from 40 percent to 30 percent, and the tariff structure has been simplified to six bands (1 percent, 5 percent, 10 percent, 15 percent, 20 percent, 30 percent). Most agricultural commodities continue to benefit from the maximum rates of protection of 20 percent and 30 percent (Annex 3, Table 5), and trade policy remains a major form of support for producer prices. Additional unit tariffs have been reduced, from a maximum of about 20 percent (tariff equivalent) to 15 percent. They remain a source of trade and price instability however, as they can be changed by cabinet, and are usually reviewed annually. There is also a facility to exempt imported raw materials from customs duty if they are used to manufacture export products. Licenses are no longer required for agricultural imports or exports, and import quotas for agricultural commodities have been terminated. However export quotas for 31 basic agricultural commodities remain, including wheat, maize, flour, sugar, soybean, sunflower and leather products. Most of these quotas are based on food balance calculations in order to limit exports to surplus domestic production. The government also reintroduced export subsidies in 2002, 2 2 These subsidies apply to all agricultural exports, with the level of subsidization ranging from 1%-7%.

16 5 funded from the Federation Budget, a policy measure that is not only ill-advised in its own right but also inconsistent with the use of export quotas and membership of the WTO. 18. While the reforms are a major improvement on pre-war trade policy, the current policy framework is still characterized by high levels of protection on most agricultural commodities and extensive non-tariff interventions. A full analysis of effective protection of Serbian agricultural production would need to take into account the comparative subsidation and taxation of agriculture vis-à-vis industry and other real sectors of the economy, but this is beyond the scope of this report. Initial focus should be on the non-tariff barriers and the variable unit tariffs, since they constrain and destabilize agricultural markets to the detriment of farmers and the broader economy. 19. Non-policy barriers are among the important constraints to trade in Serbia. These include limited capacity to satisfy EU phyto-sanitary and quality requirements (a result of the rundown of laboratories and agro-processors), the EU ban on livestock imports in order to control foot-andmouth disease, and Serbia's heavy reliance on barter trade due to lack of credit. Removal of these constraints will require improved product quality, the capacity to certify that Serbia products meet EU standards, increased access to credit, and diversification into more favorable export markets. 20. Reliance on cash-strapped former trading partners in former Yugoslavia and the CIS countries is a major cause of the high level of barter trade and a further constraint to trade. Both Republics need to strengthen trade with a wide range of trading partners, beyond the existing trade agreement with Macedonia and the trade agreements now being negotiated with Croatia and Russia. Negotiation on the proposed Stability and Association Agreement with the EU, which will begin once the new constitution has been ratified by both Republics, is critical in this regard. 21. Future agricultural trade policy reform will be heavily influenced by the application for membership in the WTO, filed by Serbia in February and by the new constitution. These are important not only in their own right, but also because they will oblige the two Republics to align their respective trade policies and negotiate a joint agreement as the basis for WTO membership. Given the marked disparities between the role of agriculture in each Republic (Annex 3, Table 1), and their respective agricultural trade policies, the decisions made in this regard will have quite different impacts on producers and consumers in each Republic. This process of policy alignment will add a further level of complexity to trade reform. 22. Regrettably, the two Republics recently stated that they view alignment of their respective economic and trade policies as justification for an increase in import protection to EU levels. Reform in this direction would restrict rather than encourage trade. It would also be viewed unfavorably by the WTO, which views membership as a commitment to reduce import protection and increase market access, not vice-versa. Increasing prices without increasing productivity will reduce competitiveness and impose a high cost on consumers. On a more positive note, harmonization of the codex alimentarius with the EU has begun, as one step towards WTO membership. DIRECT SUPPORT FOR AGRICULTURE 23. Budgetary support for agriculture in Serbia has increased significantly since 2000, albeit from a very low base. In real terms, the agricultural budget more than doubled from (at 2000 prices). Total public expenditure rose more than 300 percent during the same period (Annex 3, Table 7) however, so agriculture s share of the total budget fell from 5.3 percent in 2000 to 3.6 percent in Expenditure on agricultural subsidies accounted for approximately 60 percent of the 2002 agriculture budget, and has increased in line with the overall increase in agricultural expenditure. An export subsidy program (650 million dinars), funded by the Federation government, was introduced 3 The application was filed by Serbia alone, as it was prepared before the agreement to establish a new constitution in March The application will now have to be modified and presented as a joint application by the two republics.

17 6 in Provided that the budget for agriculture remains in its current range of 3-5 percent of total public expenditure, this overall level of expenditure is not an immediate cause for concern. The way budgetary resources are used is an important issue however, as discussed below. Soft budget support to state and socially-owned agricultural enterprises continues through non-enforcement of debt obligations accumulated in the banking sector and through subsidy payments. The cost of this support is unknown. Agricultural Price Policy and Subsidies 24. Producer prices were kept at or below parity levels during the Milosevic regime, in order to keep food prices low, which depressed agricultural production. The current Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management (MAFWM) has thus placed considerable emphasis on raising producer prices, through the removal of price controls and various forms of direct support. Producer prices have now risen to levels comparable to those observed elsewhere in the region, and agricultural terms of trade have improved (Figure 2). This increase in prices has not enhanced competitiveness however, as there has been no associated increase in productivity. Figure 2. Tends in Agricultural Terms of Trade (1999=100) Ag Producer Prices Ag Input Prices 25. The form and focus of agricultural price policy and subsidies has changed considerably since 2000 (Annex 3, Table 8). The use of floor prices to support 10 strategic commodities was abolished in 2002, because neither government nor the agro-processing enterprises had the financial resources to support these prices. A system of de facto floor prices remains nevertheless. The Directorate for Commodity Reserves (DCR) continues to purchase significant quantities of wheat and livestock, and sugarbeet and tobacco processors are obliged to pay an official price in order for their suppliers to qualify for producer subsidies. But the emphasis has now shifted to subsidy of a small number of commodities (milk, sugarbeet, tobacco) and subsidy of livestock improvement and establishment of orchards and vineyards. Further changes in 2002 include the introduction of area payments for tobacco and sugarbeet in place of production subsidies; incentives and production targets to increase industrial crop output and reduce wheat production; and the re-introduction of

18 7 export subsidies, funded by the Federation government. MAFWM is also seeking to assume the DCR s responsibility for support for wheat prices and has introduced a small allocation for this in the 2002 budget. There are no input subsidies. Controls on consumer food prices have been removed except that the price of dark bread cannot exceed 13 dinar/700 gm loaf. 26. Changes such as the abolition of government floor prices are useful reforms. Others, such as the introduction of export subsidies, support for tobacco and sugarbeet, the incentives to switch from wheat to industrial crops, and the introduction of area payments, may not be. The newly announced production targets for wheat and industrial crops are redolent of central planning. More importantly, many of the changes to price and subsidy policy have been ad hoc in nature, as opposed to a systematic introduction of new policies designed to achieve a clearly defined set of policy objectives. Pending a full analysis of the comparative subsidation and taxation of agriculture compared to manufacturing and other sectors, the best policy for the near term will be to hold the line on the level of subsidation of agriculture as a whole, and to rationalize further the supports across all agricultural subsectors. 27. Policy makers still see subsidies as the most effective form of sector support, rather than measures to increase productivity and implement institutional and structural reform. Budgetary resources are allocated accordingly, often to inappropriate subsidies and/or commodities. Public and private sector roles have also not been clarified. For example, measures to increase yields, improve product quality and strengthen marketing would have a much greater impact on competitiveness than export subsidies. And export subsidies will have to be terminated anyway as a condition of WTO membership. Subsidies for tobacco and sugarbeet are also difficult to justify. These subsidies account for 14.5 percent of the 2002 MAFWM budget, although tobacco and sugarbeet account for less than 2 percent of the total area cultivated (55,000 hectares in 2001) and are not strategically important crops. Moreover, these subsidies support agro-processors more than farmers. Instead, private-sector tobacco processors should decide tobacco prices, and support for sugar production and processing (through both subsidies and import protection) should be terminated because it imposes a very high cost on consumers. The introduction of area payments as a means to align current policy with the CAP is also misguided. The EU introduced these subsidies to compensate farmers for lower producer prices (following the Uruguay Round) and as the basis for a supply control program. Producer prices have increased in Serbia and there is no reason to limit production. The recently announced production and area targets for wheat and industrial crops are a disturbing step backwards from the initial program of liberalisation. These echoes of central planning distort the signals sent by relative and absolute prices, and do little to encourage foreign investment. 28. Ill-defined policy responses like these lead to a poor allocation of public resources, first between subsidies and institutional support, and second within the subsidy program. They are also a source of instability and a disincentive for producers and agro-processors seeking to expand and invest. In a market-oriented economy, most direct public support for agriculture should be allocated to the public institutions that assure animal health, border control, product standards, research, training and extension. Moderate tariffs provide a broader base for supporting producer prices, especially where fiscal resources are limited. Within the subsidy program there is no obvious link between the commodities and activities supported and the need to enhance sector competitiveness and growth. It makes little sense to allocate 25 percent of all subsidies to tobacco and sugarbeet, which are neither basic food commodities nor major crops. A coherent basis for agricultural price policy formulation, based on a clearly articulated sector strategy, is needed as a starting point for policy reform. The Directorate for Commodity Reserves 29. Government supports wheat prices through the purchasing activities of the Directorate for Commodity Reserves (DCR). Typically, the DCR purchases 300, ,000 tons of wheat annually, equivalent to three months consumption, but this was increased to 600,000 tons in 2001 to

19 8 rebuild stocks after the crop failures of This purchase was probably most of the marketed surplus, and incurred effective costs estimated at more than 20 million euro, including storage, losses and disposal 4. A wheat purchase price of dinar/kg has been set for 2002, and the government has stated that the DCR will purchase up to 280,000 tons of the 2002 crop. The DCR is also responsible for holding strategic stocks of maize, oilseeds, mear, sugar, powdered milk and salt. 30. The DCR s activities distort key commodity and factor markets. In addition to buying and selling the main agricultural commodities in order to maintain strategic food stocks and stabilize prices, the DCR has also now become the major source of farm machinery, farm inputs (fuel and fertilizer) and of seasonal credit to farmers. These activities distort incentive structures and inhibit private sector activity in the markets for farm credit, farm machinery, farm inputs and agricultural output. Reform of the DCR will thus be a pre-condition for increased private sector activity in these markets and increased market efficiency. RURAL FINANCE AND INVESTMENT 31. Reform of banking legislation and supervision and the establishment of a viable commercial banking system is a major thrust of the reconstruction program for Serbia. The banking system collapsed during the Milosevic era. Of the approximately 90 commercial banks in , 39 have now been deemed fit for continued operation; eighteen have merged with other banks; four have been designated for rehabilitation; and one is under administration. The remaining 23 will be liquidated, including Serbia's four largest banks, which account for over half of total banking assets. Further consolidation of the commercial banking sector is inevitable. Increased competition, tighter supervision and new laws which require banks to increase their capital base to 10 million euros by the end of 2003, will force the smaller and less profitable banks to merge with other banks or close down. This will further strengthen the banking sector and should lead to better access to capital and lower interest rates. 32. The commercial banks licensed to operate have begun to respond to the improved economic conditions, led by the foreign banks (Raiffheizen, Societe Generale, MicroFin, National Bank of Greece, Bank of Austria). Lending has increased as a result of better access to euro capital markets and the 0.65 billion euro that flowed into deposits to convert EU currencies to euros 6. Lower interest rates have also helped. Short-term interest rates of 2-3 percent per month in December 2001 have fallen to 1-2 percent per month (as of June 2002), and medium-term credit for small and mediumscale enterprises (SMEs) is now 9-11 percent per year. With core inflation still close to 15 percent, real rates of interest are now moderate. But overall lending by the commercial banks remains low, and short-term loans predominate (93 percent of all lending in June 2002). 33. Minimal progress has been made with the establishment of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), as pre-war experience with pyramid schemes has made the NBY very wary of non-bank institutions. An NGO was recently granted permission to establish a savings and credit association, but the NBY continues to take little interest in the establishment of micro-credit organizations (MCOs). This stance may reflect the NBY s reluctance to accept institutions that it can not adequately supervise, rather than any aversion to the services they provide. Microfin specializes in micro-credit, but operates as a commercial bank and so is subject to conventional reporting and supervision requirements. There is also a (pre-war) legislative and supervisory framework for savings and credit associations, even though all ceased to operate during the Milosevic era. 34. A healthy, diverse financial system is critical for recovery and growth in the agriculture sector. Farmers and processors need to rebuild their capital base, obtain the technology needed to operate 4 Mission estimate. Information on expenditure by the DCR is not in the public domain. 5 Data provided by the National Bank of Yugoslavia (NBY) 6 Of the 4 billion euro exchanged, 2.65 billion was exchanged for euros in cash, 0.7 billion was exchanged for other currencies, and 0.65 billion was deposited in foreign currency accounts (NBY).

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