Commodity Outlook: September 2017 West Central Illinois: July 2017
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1 Commodity Outlook: September 2017 West Central Illinois: July 2017 William George Senior Agriculture Economist U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agriculture Service Office of Global Analysis
2 Commodity Outlooks are all about Looking Forward.. The Trick is Determining where the Market is Going
3 Corn and Wheat (HRW) $/BU Soybean ($/BU) Record U.S. Soy Plantings and Brazil Harvest Send Soybean Price Lower 5,25 Commodity Price Trends U.S. Cash (KC & Cent Ill) 10,20 4,75 Initial USDA Area Forecast 10,00 9,80 4,25 3,75 Early Dryness So. Plains Brazil Soybean Harvest March USDA Intentions 9,60 9,40 9,20 9,00 3,25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun HRW Corn Soybean 8,80
4 Corn and Wheat (HRW) $/BU Soybean ($/BU) Wheat and Soybean Prices Rise in July 5,25 5,05 4,85 4,65 4,45 4,25 4,05 3,85 3,65 3,45 3,25 Commodity Price Trends U.S. Cash (KC & Cent Ill) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July HRW Corn Soybean No. Plains Drought Yield Concerns & USDA Planting Report 10,20 10,00 9,80 9,60 9,40 9,20 9,00 8,80
5 Corn and Wheat (HRW) $/BU Soybean ($/BU) Prices Declined Following USDA s August Forecast Commodity Price Trends U.S. Cash (KC & Cent Ill) 5,25 5,05 4,85 4,65 4,45 4,25 4,05 3,85 3,65 3,45 3,25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug HRW Corn Soybean USDA August Yield Forecast 10,20 10,00 9,80 9,60 9,40 9,20 9,00 8,80
6 Price Impact of September USDA Forecasts Less than August August August September September
7 U.S. Crop Trends Wheat, Corn, Soybeans
8 Million Hectares Growth in Area Harvested for Wheat, Corn and Soybeans in the U.S Slows 3-Crop Total Area % of Global Wheat Corn Soybeans 20% 84 19% % % %
9 U.S. Soybean Harvested Area Continues to Expand Million Acres
10 Million Tons MT/HA U.S. Soybean Production to Reach New Record on Larger Area and Above Trend Yield ,6 3,4 3,2 3 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2 Production Yield
11
12 Grams/Pod Soybean Objective Yield Region Pods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight Sept ,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 Pods Per 18 Square Feet Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) / USDA-NASS
13 U.S. Corn Harvested Area Declines on Slowing Trend Million Acres
14 Production Yield U.S. Corn Production to Decline with Reduced Yield Million Metric Tons Drought MT/HA
15
16 Lbs/Ear Corn Objective Yield Region Ears Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight Aug Sept ,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 Ears Per Acre Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears USDA-NASS
17 U.S. Wheat Harvested Area Trending Lower Million Hectares
18 Wheat Production and Yield Decline in 2017 Million Metric Tons MT/HA 4,0 3,6 3, ,8 2,4 2,0 Production Yield
19 Wheat Yields and Production Fall in 2017
20 Where does this take us into 2017/18? Lets look at each commodity separately
21 Million Tons Record Soybean Stocks to Continue into Soybean Exporter Ending Stocks Local Year Volume and Percent of Use 2000/ / / / /17 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
22 Percent Disappearance Million Tons Current Exporter Stocks Remain High Stocks to Use Comparable to % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Soybean Exporter Ending Stocks Sept: Volume and Percent of Disappearance % 2000/ / / / /17 0
23 Current and Forecast U.S Farm Prices Comparable to 2010 Soybean Exporter Ending Stocks/Use U.S. Cash Price ($/BU) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% $4,54 $4,38 $5,53 $7,34 $5,74 $5,66 $6,43 $14,40 $12,50 $13,00 $11,30 $10,10 $9,97 $9,59 $10,10 $8,95 $9,50 $9,30 $16,00 $14,00 $12,00 $10,00 $8,00 $6,00 $4,00 $2,00 $0,00
24 Million Tons China s Demand Drives Imports Trends in Global Soybean Imports / / / /2017 China EU Other
25 Million Tons Soybean Trade Eclipses Meal in Consumption Growth 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0-1,0-2,0-3,0-4,0 Trends in Soybean Meal Imports Meal & Bean Equivalent (excluding China) 2002/ / / / / /2018
26 Million Tons Import Growth Accelerates 14,0 3-yr Avg Annual Soybean Import Growth 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1998/ / / /2017
27 Million Tons Consumption Growth Mirrors Trade Adds to Total Demand 3-yr Avg Annual Soybean Import and Consumption Growth 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 1998/ / / /2017
28 Exports Set Records Every Year in Brazil and U.S. Trends in Global Soybean Trade Brazil United States / / / / /2018
29 Exports from Other Markets Fail to Match U.S. and Brazil Growth Trends in Global Soybean Trade Argentina Canada Paraguay Ukraine Uruguay ROW / / / / /2018
30 Grain Bins and Silo Bags are found on many Farms Producers have Many On-Farm Storage Options
31 U.S. Dollars/Metric Ton South American Producers Facing Sticker Shock 550 US Dollar Equivalent Export Price Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 US Gulf, FOB Brazil Paranagua, FOB Argentina Up River, FOB
32 US Dollars/Metric Ton Export Market Competitive on Price Soybean Export Price Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 US Gulf, FOB Brazil Paranagua, FOB Argentina Up River, FOB
33 MILLION TONS Global Corn Stocks Forecast to Decline 250 GLOBAL CORN STOCKS / / / /2018 Other U.S. China
34 MILLION TONS U.S. Corn Prices Face Further Declines 250 GLOBAL CORN STOCKS 200 $6,22 $6, $4,46 $3,70 $3,61 $3,35 $3, / / / / / / /2018 Other U.S. China Price
35 Global Corn Consumption Growth Continues to Trend Higher GLOBAL CORN CONSUMPTION (1,000 MT) US China Other Asia Eur/FSU ROW / / / / / / /2018
36 Global Corn Exports Forecast to Decline Trends in Global Corn Trade United States Brazil Argentina Ukraine ROW / / / / /2018
37 Global Wheat Stocks Forecast to Rise in the Coming Year WHEAT STOCKS (THOUSAND TONS) Other Other Major Exporters US
38 Million Tons U.S. Prices to Rise as Lower U.S. Production Reduces Domestic Stocks Wheat Stocks $7,24 $7,77 $6,87 $9, $5,70 $5,99 $4,89 $3,89 $4,60 $6, $3, / / / / / / / /2018 Other Other Major Exporters US Price $0,00
39 Global Wheat Consumption Continues to Grow at a Slow Pace WHEAT CONSUMPTION ROW ME/N Afr India Asia (excl India) EU / / / / / / /2018
40 Global Exports Forecast to Remain Near Current Levels GLOBAL WHEAT EXPORTS Russia/Ukr European Union United States Canada Australia Argentina Other / / / / / / / /
41 Outlook Summary: What You See is What You Get Current Corn and Soybean Prices Expected into 2018 Wheat Prices Forecast to Rebound from Current Lows with lower production in the U.S. and Australia and increased competition from Russia and Eastern Europe in Export Markets. Strong Demand Growth Boosts Soybeans Potential to Move Markets Corn Markets will Likely Follow Soybeans
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% of Reference Price 190% Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec. Male Calves Dairy Type Male Calves Beef Type
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