Overview. Dairy. U.S. Industry

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2 Dairy Overview U.S. Industry The United States is the world s largest milk producer, its output of almost 78.2 million mt in 2003 having accounted for about 15 percent of the world s milk supply. 37 Dairy is the second-largest agricultural sector in the United States, generating about $22 billion in cash receipts in 2003, equivalent to approximately 10 percent of cash commodity farm receipts. 38 According to the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), the retail value of dairy products containing U.S.-produced milk reached $90 billion in The NMPF also reported that about 70,000 commercial dairy farms were in operation in 2003, and that U.S. milk production generates close to 1.2 million jobs both on farms and in dairy processing. Milk production in the United States is experiencing considerable structural change, including (1) a steady increase in production and productivity over time; (2) an increasing share of U.S. milk supplied from a relatively few, very large dairy operations; and (3) a regional shift in production from the Northeast and Upper Midwest to the Southwest and West. In 2002, U.S. milk production costs were in the $10-13 per cwt range, significantly higher than Australia ($ per cut). 40 In the United States, milk is marketed under a complex system of federal, state, and local laws and regulations. 41 Programs at the federal level include a dairy price support program, 42 Federal milk marketing orders, 43 income deficiency payments, import controls, and export assistance. These programs are used to influence the use and availabilityof milkin the domestic market in orderto affect the level and reduce the volatility of producer prices and incomes. A consequence of U.S. Government 37 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT database Feb. 3, 2004 update. 38 USDA, ERS, Cash receipts from farming, table 33, Agricultural Outlook, various issues. 39 National Milk Producers Federation, submission to the Commission concerning U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economy-wide and Selected Sectoral Effects (Investigation No. TA ), Apr. 6, International Farm Comparison Network, Dairy Report 2003, found at 41 For a detailed discussion of U.S. dairy policy, see USDA, ERS, Dairy. Briefing Room, found at 42 Under the system, market prices for butter, cheddar cheese, and skim milk powder are supported through purchases of domestic surpluses by the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). The CCC is a government-owned and -operated corporation within the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 43 Federal milk marketing orders regulate handlers that sell milk or milk products within an order region, by requiring them to pay not less than an established minimum price for the Grade A milk they purchase from dairy producers, depending on how the milk is used. This classified pricing system requires handlers to pay a higher price for milk used for fluid consumption (Class I) than for milk used in manufactured dairy products such as yogurt, ice cream (Class II), cheese, (Class III), and butter and skim milk powder (Class IV)). 47

3 intervention has been the rise of U.S. domestic prices substantially above world market prices. 44 Owing to the incentives created by the price gapbetween domestic and world markets, border controls in the form of TRQs have been necessary to prevent imports from lowering domestic dairy prices and undermining government support programs. Dairy imports account for about 2 percent of the value of domestic production. Total U.S. imports subject to TRQs mainly cheese amounted to $783 million annually in 2003, while imports not subject to TRQs amounted to $971 million. In 2003, U.S. imports of dairy products from Australia amounted to $93 million, accounting for 5 percent of total U.S. dairy imports. Imports from Australia included $27 million of products subject to TRQs, and $66 million of products not subject to TRQs. Australian Industry In 2003, Australia was the world s 14th-largest milk-producing country with production of 10.6 million mt, accounting for about 2.1 percent of world production. 45 However, it ranked third among leading exporting countries, accounting for about 17 percent of the global dairy trade. 46 The Australian dairy industry is the third-most-important agricultural industry (behind the wheat and beef industries), and milk production accounted for about 11 percent of the total value of Australian agricultural production in 2000/ Further, dairy products accounted for about 8 percent of total Australian agricultural exports in Australia s pasture-based production system is highly efficient, making Australia one of the world s lowest-cost milk producing countries. Australia s dairy industry is largely dominated by cooperatives, which process about three-quarters of all the milk delivered to factories. 49 Recently, the Australian dairy industry has undergone significant deregulation and there is relatively little government support of the sector. Low milk production costs and highly modern and efficient processing facilities make Australia highly competitive in international markets, especially in cheese, milk powders, butter, and dry dairy ingredients (such as whey, lactose, milk protein concentrate, casein, and caseinate). In 2002/03, 50 approximately 60 percent of all dairy products manufactured in Australia were exported. 51 The volume is estimated at 44 In 2003 the average U.S. price of butter was 80 percent higher than the world price, while U.S. cheese prices were 42 percent higher, and skim milk powder prices were 8 percent higher. USDA, FAS, Dairy World Markets and Trade, Dec Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAOSTAT database Feb. 3, 2004 update. 46 Dairy Australia, Australian Dairy Industry in Focus Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Australia, Australian Food Statistics 2003, June 2003, table 1.2, pp Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Commodities, Dec Paul Kerr, Chief Operating Officer, Murray Goulburn Co-op Ltd, testimony before the USITC concerning Investigation : Conditions of Competition for Milk Protein Products in the U.S. Market, Dec. 11, 2003, transcript p Australia s marketing year for milk, ending June Dairy Australia, prehearing submission, USITC Investigation : Conditions of Competition for Milk Protein Products in the U.S. Market, Dec. 1, 2003, p

4 13.8 billion pounds (raw milk equivalent). Australia supplies more than 120 countries worldwide. However, Asian markets account for between two-thirds and three-quarters of total Australian exports, reflecting Australia s proximity to those markets. 52 The United States is also an important market for Australian dairy exports; in 2001, it accounted for about 5 percent of the total value of dairy exports from Australia. Potential Impact on U.S. Trade Flows U.S. Imports The U.S.-Australia FTA will likely result in a relatively small increase in U.S. imports of dairy products from Australia. The Agreement is also likely to have a small effect on U.S. milk production and employment in the dairy industry. This conclusion is based on an analysis showing that the additional quantities of Australian dairy products entering the U.S. market as a result of the Agreement are relatively small in comparison with current levels of domestic dairy production and consumption. Current U.S. tariff and nontariff barriers in the sector U.S. tariff treatment of imported dairy products varies considerably by product type. Imports of dairy products including fluid milk and cream (fresh, condensed, and evaporated), butter, cheese, milk powders, whey products, chocolate containing butterfat, infant formula, ice cream, and animal feeds containing milk are subject to TRQs with high over-quota tariffs. In 2003, the over-quota tariffs on an ad valorem equivalent basis for butter and skim milk powder were 84 percent and 53 percent, respectively. 53 In contrast, imports of many other milk protein products, such as milk protein concentrate, whey protein concentrate, and caseinate, face generally low ad valorem or specific tariffs and no quantity restrictions, 54 while imports of casein and milk albumin enter the United States duty-free. Specific FTA provisions for this sector The market access provisions under the FTA pertaining to U.S. dairy imports from Australia are shown in table 4-2. Under the FTA, 12 separate TRQs were established 52 Dairy Australia, Australian Dairy Industry in Focus In addition, U.S. imports of dairy products subject to TRQs are also covered by Special Safeguards (SSGs) which take the form of temporary additional duties and are typically applied to products that are particularly sensitive to trade. Under rules in the World Trade Organization Agreement on Agriculture, SSGs are permissible to prevent low prices or import surges from injuring a domestic industry. 54 For example, the tariff on milk protein concentrate (HTS subheading ) is $3.70 per mt, less than 0.1 percent on an ad valorem equivalent basis. 49

5 Table 4-2 U.S. market access provisions for dairy products under the U.S.-Australia FTA Additional quota HTS chapter and Product additional note WTO quota Year 1 Year 10 Year 25 Metric tons Milk/cream/ice cream 1... Ch. 4: 5; Ch. 21: Condensed milk... Ch.4: ,000 5, ,147 Butter/butterfat... Ch.4:6,9,14 0 1,500 1, ,049 Skimmilkpowder... Ch4: Otherpowder... Ch:4,8,12;Ch.23:2 56 4,000 5, ,253 Otherdairy... Ch.4:10;Ch.18:2 3,016 1,500 2, ,074 Cheddar cheese... Ch.4:18 2, ,525 American-type cheese... Ch. 4: 19 1, ,016 Swiss cheese... Ch.4: ,612 European-type cheese 6.. Ch 4: 17, 20, 21, ,000 3, ,451 NSPF (other) cheese... Ch4:16 3,050 3,500 5, ,288 Goya cheese... Ch4:21 13,481 2,500 3,878 ( 7 ) 1 Million liters. 2 6 percent compound growth after year percent compound growth after year percent compound growth after year percent compound growth after year Includes blue mold cheese, Edam and Gouda, Italian-type cheese, and Gruyere-processed cheese. 7 Unlimited access after year 17. Source: U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement, Draft, Annex 2-B, Mar. 1, 2004 that cover almost all U.S. dairy imports already subject to TRQs under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture. Under the FTA, quota quantities will increase in the first 17 years in staged amounts, after which they will increase annually based on a compound growth rate (table 4-2). 55 After year 17, quotas will increase by a specified compound growth rate that ranges from 3 to 6 percent depending on the category. Imports up to the FTA quota level will face a tariff rate of zero. However, imports entering beyond the quota amount will continue to face the normal trade relations (NTR) over-quota tariff rate; the Agreement does not include phased reductions in the over-quota tariff on Australian products. 56 For most dairy products not subject to TRQs, tariffs will be eliminated in equal installments over an 18-year phase-out period. Also eliminated are the in-quota tariffs on Australia s country-specific TRQs under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. 57 After year 20, the FTA allows either country to request consultations with the other to review the dairy market access arrangements. To gauge the impact of these provisions on the U.S. dairy industry, the additional amount of dairy products entering the U.S. market resulting from the FTA were 55 Goya cheese is an exception for which the over-quota tariff will drop to zero in year 18 (i.e., the TRQ will be eliminated). 56 In other U.S. FTAs (e.g., Chile, Jordan, and Israel), over-quota tariffs are reduced over the implementation period. 50

6 compared with total U.S. dairy imports and U.S. dairy production. In light of the heterogenous nature of dairy products, an accurate accounting of additional imports cannot be made by simply summing tonnages across products (e.g., combining liters of milk with tons of butter and cheese). A more accurate method of accounting (and one commonly used by dairy analysts) is to convert dairy products into their milk components (i.e., protein, milkfat, and other milk solids (mainly lactose, minerals, vitamins)), which then can be summed and compared. The additional volume of U.S. imports of milk protein, milkfat, and other milk solids derived from additional market access by Australia under the Agreement are compared with U.S. production in table In the initial year of the Agreement, it is estimated that the additional amount of milk protein entering the U.S. market will be about 9.1 million pounds, increasing to 13.8 million pounds in year 10, and to 23.2 million pounds in year 25. The United States produced about billion pounds of milk in 2003, 59 equivalent to about 5,620 million pounds of protein(fluid whole milk is assumed tobe 3.3percent protein). 60 Thus the additional quantities of protein imports resulting from the FTA are equivalent to about 0.2 percent of U.S. production in years 1 and 10, and 0.4 percent in year 25 (assuming a 2003 level of milk production) (table 4-3). The analysis also indicates that the FTA would add relatively small quantities of milkfat and other milk solids to the U.S. market, based on 2003 U.S. milk production. After 25 years, additional imports would account for 0.5 percent of domestic milkfat production and 0.3 percent of other milk solids production. These estimates are consistent with the GTAP results reported in Chapter 3. The USDA has reported that it expects increased trade access under the FTA. TRQs will be equivalent to about 0.2 percent of the annual value of U.S. dairy production. It also believes it unlikely that additional imports will impact the operation of the U.S. dairy 57 For example, under the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, Australia has an exclusive access (country-specific quota) for 2,450 mt of cheddar cheese. 58 The procedure used to estimate the milk components of additional imports under the FTA was as follows. The percentages of protein, milk fat, and other solids contained within each product covered by TRQs were obtained from the USDA Nutrient Database. Using these conversion factors, the additional quantities of milk components imported into the United States under the FTA were calculated for each of the first 25 years of the FTA, based on the growth in TRQs over this period. Total additional imports of milk components were summed across all 12 TRQs and compared with domestic production. For example, cheddar cheese is 25 percent protein, 33 percent milk fat, and 5 percent other solids. Thus every additional ton of cheddar cheese entering the United States under the FTA means an additional 250 kilograms of protein, 330 kilograms of milk fat, and 50 kilograms of other solids in the U.S. dairy market. In year 1 of the FTA, the cheddar cheese quota is 750 mt, implying an additional tons of protein, mt of milk fat, and 37.5 mt of other solids. By year 25, when the cheddar cheese quota reaches 1,525 mt, additional milk components will amount to 381 mt of protein, 503 mt of milk fat, and 76 mt of other solids. These milk component quantities were summed across all 12 TRQs, and compared with U.S. milk production (about 170 billion pounds, with 3.3 percent protein, 3.3 percent milk fat, and 5.4 percent other solids). 59 USDA, NASS, Milk production, Mar USDA, Nutrient database. 51

7 Table 4-3 Estimated additional U.S. imports of milk components from Australia under provisions of the U.S.-Australia FTA, and comparison with total U.S. imports and production in 2003 Item Protein Milkfat Other milk solids Million pounds Additional imports from Australia: Year Year Year Total U.S. production in ,620 5,620 9,196 Percent Share of 2003 production: Year Year Year Note. Milk component conversion factors are sourced from the U.S. Department of Agriculture s, Nutrient database. Source: USITC estimates. price support programs. 61 The NMPF analysis also shows effects of similar magnitude in the out years. For example, by the 10th year, the NMPF expects the cumulated dairy income loss to be $610 million. This represents about 0.25 percent of cumulated farm receipts from sales of milk over a 10-year period based on annual receipts of $23 billion. 62 U.S. Exports The United States is not a major dairy-exporting country. In 2003, its dairy exports to Australia amounted to $8.8 million, of which about one-half was infant formula and 20 percent was lactose. All dairy products exported to Australia currently face an NTR duty rate of zero and are not subject to sanitary/phytosanitary restrictions. Thus the FTA is not expected to change the trade flows of U.S. dairy products into Australia USDA, FAS, 62 National Milk Producers Federation, submission to the Commission concerning U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economy-wide and Selected Sectoral Effects (Investigation No. TA ), Apr. 6, 2004, table 2, p Report of the Agricultural Technical Advisory Committee (ATAC) for Trade in Animals and Animal Products, Mar. 2004, found at 52

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