MONGOLIAN RANGELANDS AND RESILIENCE (MOR2) PROJECT OVERVIEW. June 14, 2011, Ulaanbaatar

Transcription

1 MONGOLIAN RANGELANDS AND RESILIENCE (MOR2) PROJECT OVERVIEW June 14, 2011, Ulaanbaatar

2 Outline Setting the Context A Collaborative Effort Objectives and Research Questions Conceptual Model Research Design Expected Outcomes

3 Setting the Context Why did we create the Mongolian Rangelands and Resilience Project?

4 Rangelands = 80% of Mongolia s land area Mountain & Forest steppe Desert steppe Steppe

5 Temperate Grassland Biodiversity Photo by George Schaller

6 Pastoral Livelihoods 2.5 million people, >30% depend on livestock for their livelihoods ~40 million head Livestock = 80% of agricultural production Livestock = 20% of GDP

7 Political & Economic Change Collective Era Democracy & Free Market 1990-present

8 Rural Poverty = 40%

9 Changing Climate Time series of average annual temperature at Tsetserleg station, Arkhangai. Time series of daily discharge (streamflow) on Hanui River at Erdenemandal, Arkhangai. (From: Fassnacht, Sukh, et al. 2011)

10 Changing Climate: Extreme Events

11 1999-Present drought and dzud kill 30% of livestock, but by 2007 national herd of record size ~ 12 donors and NGOs helped organize over 2000 community-based herder groups, communities, and pasture user groups No national law on pasture tenure or rangeland management dzud kills 20% of national herd

12 Preliminary Research 2007 Interviews and household surveys in 4 aimags (Selenge, Tuv, Uvurkhangai, Arkhangai) Compared PUG and herder group member households to non-members Members and non-members differed significantly in management practices, collective action, trust and social networks.

13 Preliminary Research 2009 Measured ecological condition of pastures grazed by group members vs. non-members (Ikhtamir, Akhangai and Jinst, Bayankhongor) Found greater foliar cover and less bare ground on winter pastures used by group members compared to non-group pastures (in the mountain-steppe).

14 A Collaborative Effort Does Community-based Rangeland Ecosystem Management Increase Resilience of Rural Mongolian Communities to Climate Change? Research Planning Meeting, June 2008 Ulaanbaatar

15 Meeting Participants & Sponsors PARTICIPANTS CSU and other International Education Orgs (3) Mongolian Research and Educational Organizations (10) Mongolian National (4) and Local NGOs (6) International Donors and NGOs (14) National Government (2 ministries & 2 agencies) Local and Regional Government (1) Over 100 individuals participated over 5 days of the meeting SPONSORS Warner College of Natural Resources World Bank Swiss Agency for Development & Cooperation Mongolian Society for Range Management United Nations Development Program

16 Project Design Process Field Tour 2. State of Science 3. Research Questions 6. Research Design 5. Hypotheses 4. Conceptual Model 7. Feedback & Evaluation Pilot Sample Training & Testing

17 MOR2 Project Partners Colorado State University Texas A&M University Research Institute for Animal Husbandry Mongolian National Agricultural University Institute of Geo-Ecology Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology Center for Nomadic Pastoralism Studies (NGO) Mongolian Society for Range Management (NGO) Wildlife Conservation Society (NGO) (CRSP Grant)

18 Project Support & Sister Projects MOR2 PROJECT

19 Objectives, Conceptual Model and Design

20 MOR2 Project Objectives 1. Assess the vulnerability of Mongolian pastoral socialecological systems to climate change 2. Evaluate the effects of community-based rangeland management (CBRM) on the resilience of Mongolian pastoral systems. 3. Strengthen linkages between natural resource science and policy-making in Mongolia. 4. Build the capacity of participating Mongolian and US researchers and students to analyze the dynamics of complex coupled natural-human systems.

21 Climate and Weather climate change, extreme events (Based on design by L. Huntsinger) Markets, Policies, Social Trends economic and political forces Herders Social System Management decisions and actions Ecosystem Pastures Livestock and ecosystem response

22 Climate and Weather climate change, extreme events (Based on design by L. Huntsinger) Markets, Policies, Social Trends economic and political forces Herders Social System Management decisions and actions Ecosystem Pastures Livestock and ecosystem response

23 Climate and Weather climate change, extreme events (Based on design by L. Huntsinger) Markets, Policies, Social Trends economic and political forces Herders Social System Management decisions and actions Ecosystem Pastures Livestock and ecosystem response

24 Conceptual Model

25 Research Questions & Hypotheses Research Question 1: How resilient or vulnerable are Mongolian pastoral SESs to climate change? Climate Change & Vulnerability Hypothesis: Climate change is a major cause of recent declines in snow cover and surface water and is increasing the area of non-equilibrium (more dry and highly variable) rangelands. Surface water loss and expansion of non-equilibrium rangelands increases SES vulnerability.

26 Research Questions & Hypotheses Research Question 2: Does community-based rangeland management (CBRM) increase coupled systems resilience to climate change? CBRM Resilience Hypothesis: CBRM increases the adaptive capacity of coupled systems by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems. CBRM Performance Hypothesis: Performance and outcomes of CBRM will vary with key institutional design elements, including territory & group size, monitoring & enforcement mechanisms, and others.

27 Research Questions & Hypotheses Research Question 3: What are the implications of temporal and spatial scales and differing physical, ecological and social boundaries for understanding and managing resilience? Boundary Analysis Hypothesis: Analysis of the relationships among physical, ecological and political boundaries and pastoral migratory territories and social networks will reveal the most useful units and scales of analysis. Multi-scale Governance Hypothesis: CBRM organizations alone are insufficient to ensure sustainable management practices and ecological conditions. Multi-level governance is needed to ensure sustainability.

28 Research Questions & Hypotheses Research Question 4: Can participatory modeling and scenario planning improve within- and cross-scale learning, knowledge integration and adaptation? Scenario Planning and Social Learning Hypothesis: Participatory systems modeling and scenario planning will deepen participants understanding of system dynamics and cross-scale relationships, integrate multiple knowledge sources, and enhance adaptive capacity, leading to increased capacity for cross-scale governance and learning.

29 Research Design

30 Site Selec(on: PRIMARY FACTORS Poli(cal Boundaries Community Groups Ecological Zones Aimag Soum Without CBNRM (18 sites) paired With CBNRM (18 sites) Mountain/Forest Steppe Steppe Desert Steppe Donor/Sponsor & Group Type: UNDP (SGM/SLM)=Herder group SDC-GG=Pasture User Group WCS= Nukhurlel GTZ=Nukhurlel SECONDARY FACTORS Age of project: > 5 yrs < 5 yrs Geographic distribution: Central, Eastern Other factors: Past research contacts Existing data Other studies in region Future Considerations: Dzud Watershed boundaries

31 CBRM Org. Traditional neighborhood Non-CBRM Soum CBRM Soum

32 Units of Analysis & Sampling Units Units of Analysis or Sampling Units People Animals Pasture Soum Soum Soum herd Soum territory CBRM Organization or Neighborhood Group CBRM Organization or Traditional Neighborhood Group Aggregate herd Winter pasture area Household Household Household Herd Winter pasture area Sampling Unit Person (questionnaire respondent) Animal (sampled) Ecological plot (sampled)

33 Expected Outcomes Increase scientific understanding of community-based institutions and coupled systems resilience to climate change Develop methods for integrated data collection and analysis Impact policy through participatory modeling and scenario planning Recommendations to government, NGOs and donors on community-based rangeland management in Mongolia Train Mongolian & US researchers and graduate students Train secondary school teachers

34 Thank You!