SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Food Security Update. August Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events in West Africa

Transcription

1 SAHEL AND WEST AFRICA Food Security Update August 2009 The first growing season (March through July) in the southern reaches of the Gulf of Guinea countries is winding down, with good harvest prospects. Early crops (maize, yams, and groundnuts) from these areas are beginning to arrive on local markets and more distant markets in the Sahel. After the erratic pattern of rainfall in northern Nigeria and northern Benin and the extremely late start of the rainy season in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, there has been an improvement in rainfall conditions since the beginning of August, with a general pick up in precipitation. The large grain reserves held by many households after last year s good harvests are helping to meet needs across the region, with local and cross border trade and imports of Asian rice and American maize and sorghum helping to strengthen and better distribute grain supplies. On the whole, July prices for popular grain crops held steady, in keeping with price trends since May of this year. Though prices are running high, in general, this stability is keeping prices close to the average for this time of year, which coincides with the hunger season. However, there were reports of large hikes in prices on certain markets in Niger, Nigeria, and Chad following the drought in June and July. These high prices are curtailing food access for low income market dependent households, particularly in structurally deficit areas of the Sahel and poor urban and peri urban communities. Seasonal calendar and timeline of critical events in West Africa Figure 1. Current food security assessment, August 2009 For more information on the FEWS NET food insecurity severity scale, visit Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET West Africa Ouagadougou Tel: fewsnetrfnrwest@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 WEST AFRICA Food Security Update August 2009 Progress of the 2009/10 growing season The main growing season (April through October) in the Gulf of Guinea countries which, thus far, has been going well, should continue to make good progress thanks to regular, adequate rainfall. Satellite estimates put cumulative rainfall totals for the period from May 1 st through August 10 th of this year at between 800 and 1000 mm in certain areas, particularly in Guinea Conakry, southern Côte d Ivoire and Nigeria, and northern Cameroon (Figure 2). Despite flooding problems, these rainfall amounts helped promote the normal growth and development of cereals (maize and sorghum), pulses (groundnuts, cowpeas, earth peas, and sesame), and tubers (yams, cassava, and sweet potatoes). In general, maize crops are in the height growth and heading stages and pulses are in the flowering stage. The 2009/10 growing season got underway amid mixed rainfall conditions considered less favorable than last year, which was a good year, In the northern reaches of certain Gulf of Guinea countries (Nigeria in particular) and the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of certain Sahelian countries. The Intertropical Front (Figure 2) is still south of its average decadal position (for ). Cumulative rainfall totals for the period from May 1 st through August 10 th of this year range from a high of 600 mm in the southern reaches of these areas to a low of from 50 to 100 mm farther north in the Sahel (Figure 3). As of August 10 th, these cumulative rainfall figures were well below figures for last year (by 30 to 50 percent) and slightly below average cumulative rainfall totals for the same time of year. A comparison of the cumulative satellite rainfall estimate, and the shortterm average (2004/08) shows persistent anomalies (rainfall deficits) in central and western Côte d Ivoire, northern and eastern Nigeria, and virtually all parts of Chad (Figure 4). In the face of these stubborn rainfall deficits since the first rains began, the growing season began late in certain areas, particularly in southeastern Senegal, northern Guinea Bissau, central and southeastern Mali, western and southwestern Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, and southern Chad (Figure 5). Recent assessment missions by FEWS Figure 2: Comparison of the average decadal position of the Intertropical Front Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET Figure 3: Satellite-derived estimate of cumulative rainfall totals for the period from May 1 st through August 10, 2009 (mm). Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET Figure 4: Satellite-derived estimate of rainfall anomalies for the period from May 1 July 16, 2009 (mm). Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET 2

3 WEST AFRICA Food Security Update August 2009 NET and its partners (the CILSS, GTP, and WFP) observed and confirmed this year s start of season anomalies in various countries in July and August, reflected out in the field in the developmental stages of major crops in these areas, most of which are still in the sprouting leaf formation stage. Areas reporting a late start of season include southeastern Senegal, southern, western, and central Mali, central and southwestern Burkina Faso, and parts of southwestern Niger, where the late start of season prompted farmers to resort to a coping strategy which involved planting different early maturing varieties of crops such as 90 day maize and short cycle (60 to 90 day) cowpea in lieu of long cycle grains. Several rounds of replanting Figure 5: Start of season anomalies (April October) as of August 10, Source: USGS/FEWS NET were required in areas especially hard hit by rainfall deficits before crops were finally successfully planted late in July. As a result, crops in these important farming areas are in all different stages of growth and development, as demonstrated by the satellite image of southeastern Senegal taken on July 25 th showing some maize crops in the advanced height growth stage and others in the sprouting stage in the same field. These late planted crops still in the sprouting stage will need the rains to continue into October. In any event, their limited vegetative growth and development will affect yields. The same is true for the last batch of crops planted at the end of July and, in some cases, at the beginning of August. The first successfully planted millet crops are currently in the sprouting, leaf formation, tillering, and height growth stages. Maize and sorghum crops are in the height growth stage, while groundnuts and cowpeas are in the sprouting leaf formation stage, with some crops in Senegal s groundnut basin (in the Kaolack, Diourbel, Fatick, and Tambacounda regions) already in the flowering stage. Mechanized and manual weeding and fertilization activities for early planted millet/sorghum and groundnut crops are underway. Elsewhere in the Sahelian zone of area countries, in spite of the reported dry spells following the definitive startof season between the end of June and the beginning of July which, in this case, are promoting efficient and effective plot maintenance, in general, crop growth and development is going well and fields are well tended. Assuming the good rainfall conditions reported since the beginning of August continue through the middle of October, there is cause to hope for a good agropastoral season in these areas. Markets and trade The month of August generally coincides with the height of the hunger season in the Sahel and marks the end of the hunger season in the coastal states, following harvests of early groundnut, tuber, and maize crops. Household food stores are sharply if not virtually completely depleted at this time of year, particularly stores of major rainfed crops such as millet, sorghum, maize, groundnuts, and cowpeas. The stepping up of off season crop production, grain imports from the international market, and cross border trade during this period helps meet needs in food short areas. Market supplies are tighter and business is slower at this time of year and frequently disrupted by heavy rains preventing good market attendance or, in many cases, closing roads, as was the case in the Bakel region of Senegal at the end of July. For all these reasons and with the stepping up of farming activities, in general, the food situation is more problematic at this time of year. 3

4 WEST AFRICA Food Security Update August 2009 Market supplies for August are still ample thanks to regular releases of crops from on farm and trader inventories, particularly with the rains picking up across the region. There are no reports of any shortages despite the late start of season in Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, and northern Senegal. However, prices are running high, with no significant improvement in household income, particularly in urban areas where the incomes of poor and average households are highly inadequate (see the Price Annex). Even with the large expansion in on farm wage earning opportunities with the stepping up of farming activities at this time of year, there is no noticeable improvement in household income with the slowing of remittances as migrant workers return home for vacation or to work on the farm and with the slowdown in sales of crops as producer household reserves are depleted. Thus, in general, the price analysis by trade area and type of crop shows prices running high (above the nominal five year average) with a small normal seasonal upturn in prices since May of this year. The breakdown by crop shows maize prices in the eastern trade area generally running above the nominal average by anywhere from 32 percent in Dantokpa (in Cotonou, Benin) to 53 percent in N Djamena (Chad), to as much as 83 percent in Dawanau (Kano, in Nigeria), possibly due to the combined effects of heavy demand from the poultry industry and the seasonal drop in inventory levels at this time of year. Markets in the western trade area are reporting lower prices, with 50 kilograms of Argentinean and Canadian maize selling for 8,500 CFA francs on markets such as Bakel, in Senegal, compared with 8,750 CFA francs for Malian maize. With its larger availability, lower price, and better physical and organoleptic properties, imported maize from overseas has penetrated markets in the western trade area, where it is helping to ensure regular market supplies and keep prices stable. Current prices for millet, a grain crop in demand mainly among food short households looking to meet their food consumption needs, are certainly running above the nominal average ( ) but, thanks to their stability in recent months, are nearly on par with seasonal averages. As of the end of July, millet prices were only 9 percent above average in Dawanau (Kano, in Nigeria) and 14 percent above average in Maradi, Niger. However, there are reports of sharp hikes in prices across the region, ranging from 27 percent on the Ségou market in Mali to as much as 55 percent on the N Djamena market in Chad. The normal, seasonal movements in prices on most markets suggest that trends in household demand are also normal, with most households still in possession of sufficient food stores to get them through the hunger season thanks to last year s good harvests. In general, any sharp rises in prices such as those reported in N Djamena, on the Dawanau wholesale market, and in Ségou (in Mali s leading millet producing area), are a result of the poor start of season conditions in scattered areas across the region. Though still running above seasonal averages (by 36 percent in Cotonou (Benin), 20 percent in Bamako (Mali), and a mere 7 percent in N Djamena, (Chad)), prices for rice, which is another heavily consumed grain crop in this region, are holding steady or coming down thanks to falling prices on the international import market, government subsidies, and recent harvests of local off season crops in all countries across the region. This price stability or likely downturn in prices is a good opportunity for food short or low income households to gain access to this substitute grain crop, particularly in areas where the price of millet is rather high. Trends on livestock markets usually alter course at this time of year. Thus, there are fewer offerings and the physical condition of livestock, which are at their worst, leaves much to be desired after a hunger season marked by shortages of pasture, high prices for animal feed, and frequent outbreaks of epizootic diseases. As a result, supplies tighten, and, in many cases, retail prices for live animals and meat tend to rise. Despite the poor start of season conditions in certain livestock raising areas of Niger, Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania, in general, August prices for livestock are still above average, particularly in the case of animals in good physical shape. 4

5 WEST AFRICA Food Security Update August 2009 With prices currently running high across the board, they are a major contributing factor to poor household food access, particularly at the height of the hunger season when so many households are dependent on the market for their food supplies. Outlook Coarse grain prices (millet, sorghum, maize) will probably continue moving upwards for the next month, due mainly to heavy consumer demand during the month long observance of Ramadan scheduled to begin in the last dekad of August. Moreover, the late start of the growing season in many areas could delay shipments to market of certain early crops such as maize and cowpeas, as well as milk and cheese production. There could be small to moderate hikes in prices for livestock, depending on the area in question. However, the situation in livestock raising areas needs to be closely monitored, particularly in Niger, Chad, Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania where persistent poor conditions hindering pasture production could mean heavy casualties for livestock, leading to a sharp increase in supplies on livestock markets and a steep plunge in prices. With prices running high and likely to continue to rise until the upcoming harvest season, market dependent urban and food short households will be facing a difficult food situation for the next month. Livestock raising areas of Chad, Niger, Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania could be facing even more serious problems where, this year, new pasture growth got off to a late start and is making slow progress. These problems could be exacerbated by the month long observance of Ramadan, which has already started up across the region and is generally accompanied by sharp hikes in prices due to the stepped up demand for all types of food items. Miscellaneous local assistance, which is generally recommended and common at this time of year, could prove inadequate in the face of the simultaneous effects of the hunger season and of the larger needs and higher prices associated with the observance of Ramadan. Relief measures by governments and the donor community such as the strengthening and opening of village level grain banks and the mounting of social marketing programs will be essential to ensure an acceptable household food supply until the upcoming harvest season. 5

6 Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, market information systems, WFP, and other network and private sector partners. West Africa can be divided by agro ecological zone (running north to south) or by trade basins (running west to east), both important for understanding market behavior and dynamics. The three major agro ecological zones are the Sahelian, the Sudanese and the Coastal zones where production and consumption can be easily classified. (1) In the Sahelian zone, millet is the principal cereal cultivated and consumed particularly in rural areas and increasingly, when accessible, in urban areas. Exceptions include Cape Verde where maize and rice are most important, Mauritania where sorghum and maize are staples, and Senegal with rice. The principal substitutes in the Sahel are sorghum, rice, and cassava flour (Gari), the latter two in times of shortage. (2) In the Sudanese zone (southern Chad, central Nigeria, Benin, Ghana, Togo, Côte d'ivoire, southern Burkina Faso, Mali, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Serra Leone, Liberia) maize and sorghum constitute the principal cereals consumed by the majority of the population. They are followed by rice and tubers, particularly cassava and yam. (3) In the Coastal zone, with two rainy seasons, yam and maize constitute the most important food products. They are supplemented by cowpea, which is a significant source of protein. The three trade basins are known as the West, Central, and East basins. In addition to the north to south movement of particular commodities, certain cereals flow horizontally. (1) The West basin refers to Mauritania, Senegal, western Mali, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and The Gambia where rice is most heavily traded. (2) The Central basin consists of Côte d'ivoire, central and eastern Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Togo where maize is commonly traded. (3) The East basin refers to Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Benin where millet is traded most frequently. These three trade basins are shown on the map above. i

7 MAIZE: Maize is the main food staple for the majority of the Guinean and West African coastal counties, particularly food insecure and rural populations, and acts as a substitute for millet and sorghum in the Sahel during times of shortfalls. It is also used by industry and for animal feed. ii

8 COWPEA: Cowpea is a basic food for the coastal countries and also acts as a source of protein and meat substitute for poor households in the Sahel. RICE: Rice is an important commodity for the urban Sahel and West African region. Monitoring market trends for rice is necessary because unfavorable conditions can lead to social instability. All of the markets shown here represent those that import international products for dissemination to other markets. iii

9 iv

10 SORGHUM: Sorghum is generally the first substitute for millet and is important in the Sahel for consumption, industry, and animal feed. There is currently significant competition between human food consumption in Sahelian zones and breweries that demand sorghum for beer production. v

11 YAMS: Yams are important for food security in the coastal countries and the southern part of Nigeria. Through commercial flows, surplus yam from the coastal countries moves to the urban areas of the Sahel and several rural areas to reinforce the food availability during the lean season and times of shortfalls. It is also a primary substitute when cereal prices start to rise. MILLET: Millet is the main food staple for a majority of the Sahelian food insecure populations, particularly for the rural and urban poor. These are the main market centers for the Sahelian countries which a majority of the population relies on for food staples. vi

12 vii