U.S. Rice Market Faces Tighter Supplies and Higher Prices in 2017/18

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1 U.S. Rice Market Faces Tighter Supplies and Higher Prices in 217/18 University of Arkansas Webinar Series October 26, 217 Nathan Childs Economic Research Service USDA Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Estimates and forecasts are from the October 217 WASDE.

2 PART 1 THE 217/18 GLOBAL RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

3 The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Overview Global rice production of million tons (milled basis) is projected to be.7 percent below the 216/17 record. Smaller crops in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, and the United States more than offset larger production in Burma, Thailand, Vietnam. Global harvested area is projected at a record million hectares, up 1.1 million hectares from 216/17, as expanded rice area in India, Thailand, and Sri Lanka more than offsets reductions in Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Philippines, & U.S. Global supplies of 622. million tons are projected to be - record high, a result of a 5-percent larger carryin.

4 Global rice supplies in 217/18 are projected to be record high MIL. TONS Global Carryin Global Production 9/91 95/96 /1 5/6 9/1 12/13 17/18 Milled basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

5 Global 217/18 Harvested Area: Economic Rationale for Expansions Producer price support programs remain in effect in the world s largest rice growing countries particularly India and China with India s area up 3 percent and China down only.5 percent despite huge stocks and record imports. Ideal rainfall, adequate reservoir levels, higher farm-gate prices boost Thailand s rice area 4.4 percent, near-normal, after severe drought. Sri Lanka s rice area is expected to recover from the 216/17 abnormally small level that was sharply impacted in 216/17 by severe flooding and then severe drought.

6 Global 217/18 Rice Harvested Area: Economic Rationale for Contractions United States: Total harvested are dropped 23 percent. MAIN FACTOR: A weak long-grain price outlook at planting, plus Heavy rainfall and flooding early in the season in California and in much of the South. Late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes. Severe spring and summer flooding reduced harvested area 4 percent in Bangladesh, mostly reducing the Aman crop. Egypt s rice harvested area dropped 1 percent due to stricter area controls and shifts in planting to cotton & corn. Philippines rice area is projected to drop 5 percent, mostly due to expectations of increased imports.

7 Thailand s 217/18 rice area and production are expected to return to pre-drought levels Mil. tons Production Area 9/91 95/96 2/3 7/8 11/12 17/18 Mil. Ha /18 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

8 The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Decreases in Production Largest production declines are projected for: Bangladesh down 1.6 million tons or -4.6 percent China down 85, tons or -.6 percent Brazil down 562, tons or -6.7 percent Egypt down 5, tons or -1.4 percent Philippines down 486, tons or -4.2 percent Madagascar down 394, tons or percent South Korea down 297, tons or -7.1 percent Japan down 18, tons or -2.3 percent Indonesia down 15, tons or -.4 percent India down 15, tons or -.1 percent

9 The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Increases in Production Largest production increases are projected for: Thailand up 1.2 million tons or percent Sri Lanka up 93, tons or percent Vietnam up 479, tons or percent Paraguay up 141, tons or percent Peru up 121, tons or +5.2 percent Burma up 1, tons or +.8 percent Bolivia up 97, tons or +7.3 percent Cote d Ivoire up 95, tons or +7.1 percent Australia up 44, tons or percent

10 The 217/18 Global Rice Market: Domestic Use and Ending Stocks At 48.5 million tons, global consumption (including a residual) is.5 tons below the 216/17 record and 3.3 million tons below 217/18 production. Bangladesh, Burma, Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States account for most of the expected decline global consumption (including a residual component) in 217/18. In contrast, rice consumption in 217/18 is projected to increase in China, Egypt, India, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks of million tons are projected up 4.6 million tons from 216/17 and the highest since 2/1.

11 MILL. TONS Global ending stocks in 217/18 are projected to be the highest since 2/1 PERCENT Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use Ratio /81 85/86 9/91 95/96 2/3 7/8 11/12 17/18 217/18 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

12 China is expected to hold more than 65 percent of global ending stocks in 217/18 MIL. TONS China India Thailand Rest of World 199/ /96 2/1 25/6 21/11 217/18 217/18 are forecasts. Milled basis. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

13 MIL. TONS 5 However, ending stocks by the top 5 exporters are decling India Thailand Vietnam United States Pakistan /21 4/5 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 217/18 are forecasts. Milled basis. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

14 The Global Rice Exporters: Calendar Year 218 Global rice trade in 218 is projected to drop.3 percent from the 217 record to 44.4 million tons (milled basis), the second highest on record. In 218, Argentina, Burma (down 3K), Cambodia, Thailand (down 5k), and the United States are projected to export less rice. In contrast, Australia, China, India (up 6K and record), and Pakistan are projected to increase exports. India and Thailand are projected to remain the top rice exporters in 218, followed again by Vietnam and Pakistan.

15 The Global Rice Importers: Calendar Year 218 China is projected to remain the number one rice importer, taking 5.25 million tons, unchanged from the 217 record. Nigeria (2.3 mmt), the EU (record 1.9 mmt), the Philippines (1.7 mmt), Cote d Ivoire (record 1.5 mmt), Saudi Arabia (1.45 mmt), Iran (1.3 mmt) and Bangladesh (1.2 mmt) are projected to be the next largest buyers. Sub-Saharan Africa (up 41K mt and record), the Philippines (up 6k mt), and Bangladesh, account for most of the expected increase in global rice imports in 218. In contrast, Egypt (-1K), Iran (-3K), Nigeria (-1K), and Sri Lanka (-5K) are all expected to import less rice in 218..

16 About 9 percent of global rice production is traded annually, double the share 25 year ago MILL. TONS Rice Trade Trade Share of Production and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, PERCENT

17 Thailand and India are projected to remain the top rice exporting countries in 217 and 218 MIL. TONS Major Exporters India Thailand Vietnam Pakistan USA Burma 217 and 218 forecasts. These countries account for about 85 percent of global rice exports. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

18 1, TONS Burma s 217 rice exports are projected to be the highest since before WWII BURMA CAMBODIA and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

19 China is expected to remain the largest rice importing country; Nigeria to remain number two MIL. TONS 6 5 China Nigeria and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA,

20 With steady growth, Cote d Ivoire is projected to be the fifth largest rice importing country in 218 1, TONS 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Philippines EU Cote d'ivoire Saudi Arabia 217 and 218 are forecasts. Source: Production, Supply, and Distribution database, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, Iran Iraq

21 Little change in Thailand s export prices, while U.S. prices continue rising $/TON $1,2 $1,1 $1, $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ U.S. No. 2 Long-grain Vietnam's 5 Percent Brokens Thai 1 % Grade B All prices quoted free-on-board vessel at local port. Sources: Thai quotes, U.S. Ag Counselor, Bangkok; U.S. and Vietnam quotes, Creed Rice Market Report.

22 PART 2 THE U.S. 217/18 RICE MARKET OUTLOOK

23 The U.S. 217/18 Rice Market: Main Points Declining prices and historic flooding at planting, plus late summer Gulf Coast hurricanes, resulted in a 23-percent drop in U.S. long-grain harvested area. California harvested area dropped 15 percent due to heavy winter rains, historic snowpack, and resulting flooding. A 2-percent drop in all rice U.S. production is projected to pull U.S. supplies down 15 percent from the 216/17 near-record level. Total use domestic and residual use plus exports is projected to decline 11 percent. With both categories projected to be smaller. Total ending stocks of all rice are projected to drop 4 percent, with the stocks-to-use ratio of 12.6 percent, slightly below normal. Prices for both classes of rice in the South and for medium- and shortgrain in California are projected to be higher in 217/18 than in 216/17.

24 Arkansas accounts for the bulk of the decline in harvested area in 217 ARKANSAS CALIFORNIA LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI MISSOURI TEXAS TOTAL RICE HARVESTED AREA (1, ACRES) Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Acreage, June 217, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

25 Rice crops in 217 estimated smaller in all producing States Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

26 Arkansas remains the largest rice producing State Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

27 A 23-percent drop in all rice harvested area is projected to pull U.S. production down 2 percent in 217/18 MILL. CWT PRODUCTION HARVESTED AREA. 81/82 86/87 91/92 96/97 1/2 6/7 11/12 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.. MILL. ACRES

28 MILL. CWT U.S. rice imports are projected to increase slightly in 217/18 IMPORTS 1/ SHARE OF DOMESTIC USE 2/ PERCENT /83 87/88 92/93 97/98 2/3 8/9 12/13 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR 217/18 are forecasts. 1/ Rough basis. 2/ Does not include seed use. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

29 Mill. CWT 35 3 U.S. rice supplies are projected to drop 15 percent in 217/18 Carryin Production Imports /93 95/96 98/99 1/12 4/5 7/8 1/11 13/14 17/18 Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA..

30 MILL. CWT Both U.S exports and domestic use are projected to be smaller in 217/18 1/ DOMESTIC & RESIDUAL USE EXPORTS /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough-rice basis. 217/18 are forecasts. 1/ Domestic use includes a residual component. Sources: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

31 The U.S. 217/18 Rice Market: Economic Rationale Weaker U.S. Exports Smaller U.S. supplies of both classes of rice. Higher U.S. prices for both classes of rice. Bumper crops and supplies in most Asian exporting countries. Lack of price competitiveness for U.S. rice outside core markets: Long-grain core market are mostly in the Western Hemisphere. The majority are rough-rice buyers. Medium- and short grain U.S. core markets are Northeast Asia (milled) and to a lesser degree the Mediterranean and North Africa (rough & milled).

32 Latin America typically accounts for about 6 percent of U.S. rice exports 1, TONS 5 Mexico Other Latin America Rest-of-World /91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 11/12 16/17 Product-weight. Does not include groats, meal, or flour. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Global Agricultural Trade System,

33 By type, milled-rice accounts for most of the projected decline in U.S. rice exports 217/18 MILL. CWT 1 8 MILLED RICE EXPORTS ROUGH RICE EXPORTS /91 94/95 98/99 2/3 6/7 1/11 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

34 U.S. exports of both classes of rice are projected to decline in 217/18 MILL. CWT LONG-GRAIN MEDIUM- AND SHORT-GRAIN 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1/11 12/13 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA.

35 Through October 19, U.S. all-rice exports were 22 percent below a year earlier, with rough most of the decline 1, TONS Milled Brown Rough Oct Oct. 19, 217 Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report.

36 But U.S. long-grain exports were 7 percent above a year earlier, with milled all of the increase 1, TONS Milled Brown Rough Oct Oct. 19, 217 Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report.

37 While combined medium- and short-grain exports were 63 percent below a year earlier 1, TONS Milled Brown Rough Oct Oct. 19, 217 Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report.

38 Through October 19, U.S sales and shipments to Haiti and Mexico were well ahead of a year ago Long-grain MEXICO HAITI CENTRAL AMERICA Oct. 2, 216 VENEZUELA COLOMBIA Oct. 19, 217 SAUDI ARABIA , tons Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report

39 but well behind last year to Northeast Asia and the Middle East Medium- and short-grain Japan Korea Taiwan Turkey Jordan Oct. 2, 216 Oct. 19, 217 Libya , tons Product-weight. Shipments plus outstanding sales. Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, weekly U.S. Export Sales report

40 The U.S. 217/18 Rice Market: Economic Rationale Smaller domestic and residual use Less post-harvest losses due to a smaller crop. Fewer losses in transporting, milling, and marketing, also due to the smaller crop. Stable historic ratio of total supply to domestic use. Higher prices will likely reduce some processed food and industrial uses of rice.

41 U.S. all-rice ending stocks are projected to decrease 4 percent in 217/18 MILL. CWT 6 3 ENDING STOCKS STOCKS-TO-USE 5 25 PERCENT /88 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 11/12 14/15 17/18 AUGUST-JULY MARKET YEAR Rough basis. 217/18 are forecasts. Source: World Agricultural Supply and Use Estimates, WAOB, USDA..

42 Season-average farm prices for both classes of rice are projected to be higher in 217/18 $/CWT 3 All rice Long-grain U.S. medium- and short-grain /18 are forecasts. Source: Quick Stats, NASS, USDA,

43 $/CWT 3 Both the southern and California medium- and short-grain SAFPs are projected higher CALIFORNIA 2/ OTHER STATES 3/ 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Market years 2/ 217/18 are projected. 1/ Season-average rough-rice for medium- and short-grain rice first reported by region for the 28/9 market year. 2/ October-September market year. 3/ August-July market year. Source: Quick Stats data base, NASS, USDA.

44 The U.S. 217/18 Rice Market: Economic Rationale for Higher Prices Tighter U.S. supplies of both classes of rice. Ending stocks of both classes of rice are expected to substantially decline from 216/17: With long-grain down from recent abnormal high levels And medium- and short-grain ending stocks becoming extremely tight. Area and crop losses from adverse weather early in the season in both the South and California, as well as concerns over potential damage from Gulf Coast Hurricanes pushed prices higher.

45 For More Information, Please Go To: The Economic Research Service Home Page World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report Grains: World Markets and Trade Reports Production, Supply and Distribution data base The Rice Topics Page

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