Emmit L. Rawls Professor Agricultural Economics

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1 Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Emmit L. Rawls Professor Agricultural Economics

2 Slaughter Steer Prices $ Per Cwt Market W eighted Average, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Now in the mid $90s

3 Boxed Beef Cutout Value $ Per Cwt. 180 Choice Lbs. Carcass, W eekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Wholesale values higher on reduced supplies

4 Steer Hide and Offal Value $ Per Cwt Live Animal Basis, W eekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Support from weaker dollar and recovering world economy

5 Tennessee lbs Steer Prices 2009, 2010 and 5-yr average, weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Avg

6 Tennessee lbs Steer Prices 2009, 2010 and 5-yr average, weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Avg

7 Slaughter Cow Prices $ Per Cwt. 65 Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT

8 Omaha Corn Prices $ Per Bu Weekly Avg JAN On a new plateau APR JUL OCT

9 Other Hay $ Per Ton 115 Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year Avg. 04/05-08/ / /11 85 MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR

10 Kansas Feedlot Closeouts $/cwt 95 Feeding Costs per Cwt, Steers Avg. 2004/ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11

12 Cattle Inventory July = Million Head -1.2 Percent Cycle began in 90, peaked in 96 with cycle lows in early 04 After 2 years of increase, no change in 07, decrease in 08, 09 & 10

13 Beef Cows That Have Calved January 1, 2010 (1,000 head) Alaska Hawaii US Total VT NH 4 MA 8 RI 1.3 CT 5.5 NJ 10 DE 4 MD to 5,140 (11) 440 to 890 (13) 160 to 440 (13) 0 to 160 (13)

14 Change in Beef Cow Numbers Jan. 1, 2009 to Jan 1., 2010 (1000 head) Alaska Hawaii US Total MA 1 RI -0 CT -1 NJ -1 DE 0 MD 2 2 to 46 (14) 1 to 2 (2) -10 to 1 (15) -17 to -10 (8) -71 to -17 (11) Due to drought and pasture moving to crops

15 Change in Beef Cow Numbers Jan. 1, 2001 to Jan 1., 2010 (1000 head) Alaska Hawaii US Total MA 3 RI -0 CT -3 NJ 2 DE 0 MD 4 3 to 160 (12) -8 to 3 (12) -68 to -8 (13) -325 to -68 (13) Impact of drought in western states and Southeast

16

17 Beef Cow Slaughter Thou. Head 95 Federally Inspected, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Why: High cow prices, cash flow needs

18 Heifers Held As Beef Cow Replacements July 1 Mil. Head % Smaller cow herd ahead

19 Cow-Calf Returns and Cattle Inventory $ Per Cow Mil. Head Cow-Calf Returns Cattle Inventory Jan 1 Low returns and droughts caused herd to decline

20 Feeder Cattle Supplies July 1 Mil. Head 55 Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S Down 2.6% from July 09

21 Beef Demand: Choice Minus Select Beef Prices $ Per Cwt Carcass Cutout Value Lbs., Weekly 8 Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Consumers shifting to lower priced cuts/grades due to economy Higher % Choice cattle

22 Beef Demand: Wholesale Beef Ribeye Prices $ Per Cwt. 770 Boneless, Light, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL Again prices lower than average shift in purchases, currently $511 OCT

23 Beef Demand: Wholesale Beef Chuck Prices $ Per Cwt. 190 Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Stronger prices, but cheaper cuts, currently $172

24 Monthly US Beef Exports 000 Pounds, CWE Source: Daily Livestock Report

25 Japan s Share of U.S. Beef Exports 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

26 Beef Demand Impacted by Food safety recalls Concerns about heart disease Nutrition information Female employment outside the home Convenience Source: Kansas State University Mintert, Tonsor & Schroeder

27 Beef Demand Consumers value convenience Consumers respond to new products that meet their needs Consumers are receptive to information about health and nutrition Consumers expect beef to be safe Source: Kansas State University Mintert, Tonsor & Schroeder

28 Commercial Beef Production Bil. Pounds 6.8 Quarterly Avg. 2004/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC Smaller herd, reduced production

29 Total Red Meat & Poultry Production Bil. Pounds 24.0 Quarterly 23.0 Avg. 2004/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2011 Expansion in poultry is offsetting reduction in beef and pork

30 Factors Driving Feeder Cattle Prices Expected fed cattle price Current fed cattle price Distant futures Expected cost of gain Currently $ Returns to cattle feeders Forage availability Weather

31 Impact of Corn Price on Price of Feeder Cattle 25 change in corn price changes price of 550 lbs feeder $2.50/cwt 25 change in corn price changes price of 700 lb feeder $1.00/cwt Assumes constant fed cattle price

32 Impact of Corn Price on Cost of Feedlot Gain Cost of gain (COG) in feedlots $3 corn = $70 COG $4 corn = $80 COG $5 corn = $90 COG $6 corn = $100 COG $7 corn = $110 COG Source: Harlan Hughes

33 Returns from Finishing Yearling Steers

34 Choice Steer Price vs Breakeven $ Per Cwt Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: July Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven

35 Fed Cattle Price Forecasts USDA-ERS* UT Futures August $/cwt Jul Sept Aug Ot Oct Dec Ot9507 Oct Jan Mar Dec Apr Jun Feb Apr * August 13, 2010

36 What Can A Feedlot Pay For 700 lbs. Steers To Be Sold At 1200 lbs.? Expected Sale Price ($/cwt) $ 95 $ 100 Sale wt (lbs) x 1200 x 1200 Gross Sale Value ($/hd) $ 1140 $ 1200 Cost of $0.75/lb 500 lbs gain Max Dollars for Feeder ($/hd) $ 765 $ 825 Return to Risk & Management ($/hd) Max Dollars for Feeder ($/hd) $ 740 $ 800 Max Price for Delivered 700 lbs Steer ($/cwt) $ $ Less Trucking ($/cwt) TN Price ($/cwt) $ $

37 What Can A Feedlot Pay For 700 lbs. Steers To Be Sold At 1200 lbs.? Expected Sale Price ($/cwt) $ 100 $ 100 Sale wt (lbs) x 1200 x 1200 Gross Sale Value ($/hd) $ 1200 $ 1200 Cost of $0.75/lb ($0.85/lb) 500 lbs gain Max Dollars for Feeder ($/hd) $ 825 $ 775 Return to Risk & Management ($/hd) Max Dollars for Feeder ($/hd) $ 800 $ 750 Max Price for Delivered 700 lbs Steer ($/cwt) $ $ Less Trucking ($/cwt) TN Price ($/cwt) $ $

38 Feeder Cattle Forecasts Steers M lbs* lbs** Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun * Load Lots ** Auction Cattle

39 Futures Based Forecasts Feeder Cattle lbs M-1 Steers August 13 Aug Sept Ot Oct Nov Jan Feb Not Adjusted For Basis

40 What About Stockers? Strategies Intensive grazing Reduce hay/feed waste Take advantage of seasonal feed prices Buy in bulk, shop around Manage price risk on feed and cattle

41 Corn Gluten Feed Pellets Cash Seasonal Price Index, % Memphis 105% +6% +5% +2% +2% +4% +5% 100% -1% 95% -3% -4% -4% -4% 90% -7% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

42 Soybean Hulls Cash Seasonal Price Index, % Memphis 115% 110% 105% 100% +11% +8% +2% +1% +6% +7% +9% 95% 90% 85% 80% -4% -4% -12% -10% -15% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

43 What About Stockers? Strategies Intensive grazing Reduce hay/feed waste Take advantage of seasonal feed prices Buy in bulk, shop around Manage price risk on feed and cattle Consider retained ownership Market as load in on-farm, video or thru a graded sale

44 What About Stockers? Buy em cheap Keep em alive Feed em cheap Sell em high

45 Retained Ownership Freight to feedlot pay anyway Added risk both production and price Opportunity to capture full value due to grade, gain, age & source Again price risk management for feed and cattle important

46 Take Home Message Cattle cycle stalled Cow calf returns will be higher in 11 Beef production up 1.6% in 11 Beef fdemand dcould struggle until unemployment declines Higher feed cost than 10 Contraction in beef & pork Poultry expansion

47 Take Home Message Tight credit an issue Beef exports a big plus Exports value of dollar/politics Hedge funds may continue to create market volatility Excess capacity in feedlot & packing business will force contraction/consolidation

48 Take Home Message Some shift in feeding to mid-west Check out the new Livestock Risk Protection Insurance

49 The End

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