Beef Cattle Profitability Expectations for Kenny Burdine UK Agricultural Economics

Transcription

1 Beef Cattle Profitability Expectations for 2015 Kenny Burdine UK Agricultural Economics

2 Market Fundamentals Supplies tight, expansion likely underway 2015 calf crop likely larger than 2014 Grain prices softer and carryover to buffer grain supply impact Expansion in competing meats first threat, expansion second Record spring prices Fall prices softer, but the 2 nd highest on record

3 Outline for Discussion Quick take on production costs Revenue expectations for spring Revenue expectations for fall

4 Cow-calf Cost Targets Our budgets usually $450 to $550 for variable costs 2.5 tons of hay, 2 pasture acres, vet / med, mineral, breeding, commission, etc. Fixed costs / overhead costs are usually wildcard Buildings, facilities, equipment, fencing, operator labor $100 to $300 not at all uncommon

5 Variable Costs from Cow-calf Budget VARIABLE COSTS PER COW Pasture Maintenance 2.0 acre $40.00 $80.00 Hay 2.5 ton $80.00 $ Grain 0.0 lb $0.07 $0.00 Salt and Mineral 91.3 lb $0.40 $36.50 Vet and Medical 1.0 head $25.00 $25.00 Breeding 1.0 head $70.00 $70.00 Marketing 1.00 head $32.35 $32.35 Main of Replacement Heifer 0.00 head $ $0.00 Mach & Equip (Fuel/Rep/Main) 1.0 head $20.00 $20.00 Other 1.0 head $15.00 $15.00 Interest on Operating Capital Total Variable Costs per Cow $ dollars 6.0% $23.94 $ With fixed and overhead costs likely $600 to $800 total

6 Fall 2014 Revenues 550# $250 = $1, # $235 = $1,292 Steer / heifer average = $1,333 Weaning rate impacts: 90%: $1,200 per cow maintained 80%: $1,066 per cow maintained 70%: $933 per cow maintained

7 CME Feeder Cattle Futures

8 Historical Basis Estimates (550# Steer Calves)

9 Spring 2015 Revenue Estimates (Futures based prices) Spring board around $ # $265 = $1, # $245 = $1,348 Steer heifer average = $1,403 Weaning rate impacts: 90%: $1,263 per cow maintained 80%: $1,122 per cow maintained 70%: $982 per cow maintained

10 Fall 2015 Revenue Estimates (Futures based prices) Fall board around $ # $240 = $1, # $220 = $1,210 Steer heifer average = $1,265 Weaning rate impacts: 90%: $1,139 per cow maintained 80%: $1,012 per cow maintained 70%: $886 per cow maintained

11 High Market Mentality This market covered up a lot of mistakes Cow-calf and backgrounding Producers tend to take less risk in high markets Retained ownership Some producers cut corners in high market Bulls vs. steers Current market is an incredible opportunity

12 A bit on post-weaning and backgrounding

13 Rethink Price Slides! 550# $1.50 = $ # $1.40 = $910 $85 dollar margin 550# $2.40 = $1, # $2.20 = $1,430 $110 dollar margin At current prices $10 slide is more like $24

14 133 Day Backgrounding (Drylot) Value 550# steers $ % BW 50 / $220 per ton 1.5% BW grass $80 per ton 2.25 lbs gain per day 0.25 mineral per $20 per bag Futures based sales price for 850# steer $12 under basis

15 CME Feeder Cattle Futures

16 Current Backgrounding Budget (Purchased calves) Sales # units unit price / unit total Feeder 849 lbs $2.21 $1,876 Expenses Stocker Calf 550 lbs $2.50 $1,375 Hay 1365 lbs $0.04 $55 Hulls / Gluten 1,365 lbs $0.11 $150 Mineral 0.25 lbs / day $0.40 $13 Vet / Med 1 head $25.00 $25 Commision 1 head $53.00 $53 Hauling 1 head $12.00 $12 Other 1head $10.00 $10 Interest 5% rate $29 Death loss 2% $28 Total Expenses $1,750 Return to Land, Capital and Management $127

17 A few things to remember A $1 movement in futures is worth about $1.50 on calves Sometimes you make your money on the buy Budgets based on $2.50 Each nickel is worth $27.50 Manage downside sale price risk 10% increase in feed costs ($20.50) 10% decrease in sale price ($188.00) Short term vs longer term Think through cost differences owned calves vs. purchased

18 Current Backgrounding Budget (Owned calves) Sales # units unit price / unit total Feeder 849 lbs $2.21 $1,876 Expenses Stocker Calf 550 lbs $2.50 $1,375 Hay 1365 lbs $0.04 $55 Hulls / Gluten 1,365 lbs $0.11 $150 Mineral 0.25 lbs / day $0.40 $13 Vet / Med 1 head $15.00 $15 Commision 1 head $13.00 $13 Hauling 1 head $5.00 $5 Other 1head $10.00 $10 Interest 5% rate $29 Death loss 1% $14 Total Expenses $1,678 Return to Land, Capital and Management $198

19 And 5 minutes on risk management

20 Current Backgrounding Budget (Purchased calves) Sales # units unit price / unit total Feeder 849 lbs $2.21 $1,876 Expenses Stocker Calf 550 lbs $2.50 $1,375 Hay 1365 lbs $0.04 $55 Hulls / Gluten 1,365 lbs $0.11 $150 Mineral 0.25 lbs / day $0.40 $13 Vet / Med 1 head $25.00 $25 Commision 1 head $53.00 $53 Hauling 1 head $12.00 $12 Other 1head $10.00 $10 Interest 5% rate $29 Death loss 2% $28 Total Expenses $1,750 Return to Land, Capital and Management $127

21 Risk Management Strategies Forward contract No price risk, production risk, negotiate slide and weigh conditions - $127 exp. proft Short futures Price risk to basis risk, margin calls, more flexibility - $127 expected profit Put options a bit more complex

22 Put options in this market Spring board around $233 $228 put - $4 per cwt premium Sale weight 850# = $32 per head premium Now expected profit is $95 per head

23 Current Backgrounding Budget (Purchased calves) Sales # units unit price / unit total Feeder 849 lbs $2.21 $1,876 Expenses Stocker Calf 550 lbs $2.50 $1,375 Hay 1365 lbs $0.04 $55 Hulls / Gluten 1,365 lbs $0.11 $150 Mineral 0.25 lbs / day $0.40 $13 Vet / Med 1 head $25.00 $25 Commision 1 head $53.00 $53 Hauling 1 head $12.00 $12 Other 1head $10.00 $10 Option Cost 1 head $32.00 $32 Interest 5% rate $29 Death loss 2% $28 Total Expenses $1,782 Return to Land, Capital and Management $95

24 Put options in this market Spring board around $233 $228 put - $4 per cwt Sale weight 850#, $32 per head Now expected profit is $95 per head But, you also self insure the first $5 in market drop Worst case scenario is $52 per head

25 Current Backgrounding Budget (Purchased calves) Sales # units unit price / unit total Feeder 849 lbs $2.16 $1,834 Expenses Stocker Calf 550 lbs $2.50 $1,375 Hay 1365 lbs $0.04 $55 Hulls / Gluten 1,365 lbs $0.11 $150 Mineral 0.25 lbs / day $0.40 $13 Vet / Med 1 head $25.00 $25 Commision 1 head $53.00 $53 Hauling 1 head $12.00 $12 Other 1head $10.00 $10 Option Cost 1 head $32.00 $32 Interest 5% rate $29 Death loss 2% $28 Total Expenses $1,782 Return to Land, Capital and Management $52

26 Contact Information Kenny Burdine UK Agricultural Economics (859)