Global Climate Change & Smallholder Farmers

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1 Fintrac Topic Papers Volume 1 Global Climate Change & Smallholder Farmers Productivity, Adaptation, and Mitigation Opportunities February 013 Agriculture, especially as practiced by smallholder farmers in developing countries, is particularly vulnerable to climate change. It is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. Expanding farmer adoption of good agricultural practices (GAPs) not only reduces risks from extreme weather events and climate changes (adaptation), but also contributes to reduced emission efforts (mitigation). Because GAPs increase productivity and income, they enable continued and expanded farmer investment in productivityenhancing and adaptation/mitigation technologies. This topic paper outlines a no regrets approach to climate change adaptation and mitigation for smallholders, including: promoting farmer adoption of GAPs; incorporating a whole-farm integrated crop management approach; supporting research, development, and adoption of new crop varieties; and expanding capacity in remote weather stations, disease modeling, and index insurance systems. It concludes with a table of suggested GAPs, summarizing how each one contributes to adaptation, mitigation, and economic growth. Climate Change Forecasts Global surface temperature is the simplest and most practical indicator for measuring and tracking climate change, and has risen steadily over the past two centuries due to fossil fueldriven industrialization. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found, with a high level of confidence, that increasing average global temperatures during this period are primarily a result of increased greenhouse gases from human activity. 1 Under the six emissions scenarios considered by the IPCC, global average surface temperatures are expected to increase by C this century (Figure 1). 3 While continued warming is likely, the predicted average global temperature increases over this century vary widely within and among the many global general circulation models and the various emission scenarios. Medium- and long-term forecasts for regional global climate change (GCC) impact (as measured by temperature, precipitation levels, alterations in seasonality, and incidence of 1 IPCC 007 Synthesis Report, p. 39. IPCC 007 Synthesis Report, p These scenarios take into consideration the varying degrees of demographic, economic, and technological change that may occur during the next century, and the emissions that are expected to result. See IPCC 007 Synthesis Report (page 44) for descriptions of each scenario. Figure 1: Forecasted Global Temperature Increase for Emission Scenarios by ( C) extreme weather events) are even more variable. Projected increases in global temperatures are likely to lead to an increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, heavy precipitation, and intensified tropical cyclones. The severity of and changes to annual trends for extreme weather events vary among regions, and even among microclimates found within relatively close geographic proximity. Ensemble projections show expected warming in all developing regions, but expected precipitation changes and extreme weather events differ widely from region to region (Table 1). Some regions are

2 expected see net increases in precipitation, while others could witness devastating decreases in total rainfall and seasonal distribution. GCC, Agriculture, and Smallholders Due to its significant reliance on weather patterns, as well as other environmental factors, agricultural production is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. Some 40 percent of the Earth s land surface is under cropland and pasture, while natural forests cover another 30 percent. 4 Emissions from agricultural activities represent 13.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, while emissions from forestry, including deforestation and land use change due to agricultural expansion, represent another 17.4 percent (Figure ). 5 Developing countries account for 75 percent of direct emissions from agricultural activities (Figure 3). 6 7 Developing countries account for 68 percent of nitrous oxide (N O) emissions from soils, which account for 38 percent of total non-carbon dioxide agricultural emissions. Reducing inefficient or excessive application of N O-based fertilizers will lower emissions from both their manufacturer and, more significantly, release from cultivated soils. Other good agricultural practices, including mulching, minimal tillage, and agroforestry, reduce N O emissions and allow agricultural ecosystems to serve as carbon sinks that capture and sequester carbon from Table 1 Ensemble Regional GCC Predictions (by 100) Dec Mar Jun Sep Annual Feb May Aug Dec East 13% 6% 4% 7% 7% West Southern South Asia Southeast Asia Central America 3.0 6% %.5 6%.6 14% 3.5 3% 3. % % 3.5 9%.7 7% %.7 11%.4 7% 3.4 9% 3.3 1% % %.4 6% 3. 4% the atmosphere through photosynthesis. 3.3 % 3.6 4% %.5 7% 3. 9% temperature increase ( o C) precipitation decrease (%) precipitation increase (%) increased frequency of extreme wet () or dry () seasons Note: Mean averages of 1 global models under A1B scenario. Source: Climate Change 007: The Physical Science Basis, WG1 Ch.11, IPCC, pages IPCC 007 AR4 WG, Chapter 5 p IPCC 007 Synthesis Report, p US-EPA 006; Global Anthropogenic Non-CO Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Emissions of CH 4 and N O; net emissions of CO are negligible due to photosynthetic properties of agricultural crops.

3 Given that farmland in developing countries is predominantly managed by smallholder farmers (upward of 80 percent in Asia and ), they are significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. 8 Agriculture-related land-use change and deforestation occurs predominantly in the tropical developing world, principally due to agricultural expansion and, to a lesser extent, demand for forest products. While the need for agricultural expansion can be attributed in some part to growing populations, most is due to decreasing soil fertility and resultant poor productivity due to low technology adoption, causing farmers to abandon unproductive farmland and mine previously uncultivated soils. While higher CO concentrations and higher temperatures might lead to increased yields in some crops and in some regions, especially at higher elevations for crops with higher optimal temperatures, reductions in yields are likely at lower elevations, particularly in tropical regions where temperatures exceed optimal ranges for many crops. Productivity reductions in livestock, a primary coping mechanism for the food insecure, are also likely. Higher evaporation rates from warmer temperatures will increase competition for available water among households and agricultural activities, and higher temperatures will also increase disease vulnerability for humans, animals, and plants, requiring expanded and improved health systems for vector control and treatment. All crops suffer productivity declines and total or partial crop losses with increased extreme weather events. Many farmers report observable changes in climate, such as increased frequecy and severity of flooding in the Terai region of Nepal, more common and severe droughts in Kenya, hotter day and night temperatures in Central America, and delayed start of the rainy season and more erratic rainfall patterns in Cambodia. A No Regrets Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation At this stage, the uncertainty and variability of climate change models is too great to determine future geographic or crop winners 8 Food and Agriculture Organization, 01 and losers with any confidence. Governments, development organizations, farmer associations, and companies should therefore promote no regrets interventions adaptation and mitigation measures that have positive returns on productivity, profitability, environment, biodiversity, risk-reduction, and future adaptability regardless of future climate change. The fundamental principle of this approach is that GAPs, income, and climate mitigation are directly linked since: 1. Farmers whose incomes are increasing are more likely to adopt practices that reduce risk from climate change and contribute directly to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.. The best way for smallholders to increase incomes, while at the same time adapting to risks associated with climate change, is to adopt a range of good agricultural practices. 9 Promoting farmer adoption of good agriculture practices. Generating income through increased agricultural productivity is the primary conduit for reducing poverty and hunger among smallholder farmers. Such increases in productivity invariably result from the adoption and application of GAPs designed to raise yields, decrease per unit production costs, and increase gross margins. Environmental and climate change activities that reduce farmer or agribusiness costs, and are market-led and profit-driven, have the best sustainability rates. While income generation may be the first and foremost reason for promoting a particular agricultural practice, GAPs also have substantial socio-environmental advantages and include adaptive properties that allow farmers to reduce losses from extreme 9 The term good agricultural practices refers to a package of techniques that increase productivity on a sustainable basis by improving soil composition, reducing erosion, raising soil fertility and water-holding capacity, and creating a balanced ecology of microflora and fauna within the soil and crop environment. GAPs take the best aspects of traditional agriculture such as crop rotation and recycling of organic plant and animal waste but supplement these with precision use of inorganic fertilizers, optimal and safe use of crop protection chemicals, and introduction of irrigation systems that minimize water use. The most cost-effective and sustainable way for smallholders to become small-scale commercial farmers is by adopting GAPs appropriate to their conditions. 3

4 weather events and adjust to changing climatic conditions. GAPs also have mitigative properties that result in reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (Table ). Importantly, more and more end-market buyers are requiring suppliers to incorporate GAPs and mitigation measures through specific protocols (e.g. GLOBALGAP). Promoting adaptation methods that reduce loss risk from extreme weather events. Worldwide, farmers have already experienced an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events, and they have shown that adoption of basic agronomic techniques can reduce losses from these events (particularly short-duration events such as flash flooding). For drought conditions, these include mulching and contouring to retain and increase soil moisture, and more efficient irrigation methods that conserve water. For floods and heavy flash rains, mitigation measures include raised beds or contouring to divert heavy flows from plants and reduce soil erosion. Incorporating a Whole-Farm Integrated Crop Management approach. A wholefarm approach prioritizes risk reduction through diversification of both crops and buyers/markets. Government extension workers, development practitioners, farmer associations, and private companies should therefore be trained to promote technologies and techniques that benefit a range of crops and enable farmers to apply them to new crops in the future. Supporting research, development, and adoption of new varieties with research organizations and private sector partners. Increased Productivity & Climate Change Mitigation For many crops, production increases have been more the result of increased land conversion to agriculture as opposed to productivity increases. The lack of productivity success has been the primary cause for deforestation. Given that land conversion already accounts for nearly 0 percent of global CO emissions, increasing productivity of current areas under production and the resultant reduction in land conversion can and should be one of the primary climate change mitigation measures. Steps to reduce fertilizer and other farm chemical use (soil analysis, precision fertilization, IPM, improved varieties) will also significantly contribute to mitigation given their high emission contributions. Demonstration trials can promote proven, faster-maturing varieties that are drought, heat, pest, virus, disease, and saline tolerant. Priority should be given to scaling-up supply of improved planting materials and promoting farmer adoption of new varieties, which are often persistent weaknesses in many developing countries. Expanding capacity in remote weather stations, disease modeling, and index insurance systems. The affordability, remote applicability (through photovoltaic power sources), and accessibility (through mobile telecommunications technology for both data collection from stations and information dissemination to farmers) of weather stations for agriculture has improved remarkably in recent years. There is incredible potential in using this technology for improved pest and disease forecasting and control, risk-reducing financial instruments (i.e. crop insurance), and climate change modeling. Table : Illustrative Good Agricultural Practices & GCC Adaption and Mitigation Practice Adaptation Benefit Mitigation Benefit Economic & Other Benefits Crop rotation Diversified crop production (multicropping) by individual farmer Systems knowledge (multicrop experience) allows farmers to change crop mix in future if required to compensate for longer-term temperature and precipitation changes Reduces emissions from lower use of fertilizers and other farm chemicals through improved soil fertility and reduced pest/disease pressure (reduction in soilborne pathogens) Reduced risk of income variability caused by market demand and price fluctuations for single crop; increased productivity and soil structure (with suitable rotation crops) and income (with highervalue crops) 4

5 Table : Illustrative Good Agricultural Practices & GCC Adaption and Mitigation Practice Adaptation Benefit Mitigation Benefit Economic & Other Benefits Calendarized crop production by individual farmer Pest and disease forecasting for small geographic areas (weather station networks and crop models) Improved water management systems (catchment, groundwater recharge, drip and other irrigation) Low tillage or no tillage Mulching Raised and contoured beds Protected production technologies (greenhouses, row tunnels) Fertigation and other precision fertilization practices; soil analysis Live pest and wind barriers Agroforestry Pest scouting (as part of IPM program) Development and adoption of improved crop varieties (e.g. drought, pest, disease tolerance) Reduced exposure to variability in crop value due to seasonal extreme weather events Risk reduction from crop loss due to higher disease/pest pressures from GCC (especially higher temperatures) Reduced reliance on erratic rainfall patterns; improved recharge of groundwater for irrigation Reduced soil erosion during severe rainfall; improved water absorption capacity Decreased water requirements and increased water retention (reduced envirotranspiration) Reduced risk of crop loss from flood events through water channeling; increased water absorption and retention Protection (limited) from extreme weather events; reduced water usage from reduced envirotranspiration Farmers can prepare for and respond to changes in soil chemistry due to climate change Reduced pest/disease pressures despite higher temperatures; reduced damage from extreme (limited) wind weather events Reduced soil erosion; wind barriers Reduced pest/disease pressures despite higher temperatures Increased tolerance to changes in temperature, rainfall, pest/disease threats, soil salinity/ph, length of growing season, etc. None or negligible Reduction in emissions from unnecessary applications of farm chemicals; expanded climate data availability and geographic coverage to improve GCC forecasting None or negligible Reduced release of carbon and organic matter stored in soils; reduced use of fossil fuels for plowing Lower emissions from reduced herbicide use for weed removal; increased capture and sequestering of CO and carbon into soils Reduced soil erosion will maintain soil fertility (reduce land conversion) Intensive production reduces land-use conversion and deforestation; lower emissions from reduced manufacturing, transport, and application of fertilizer and other farm chemicals lower/optimal applications of fertilizers; increased land area productivity (reduced need for land conversion to crops) lower requirements for pesticides Carbon sequestration lower requirements for pesticides Require less intensive manufacturing and application of inputs (fertilizer, pesticides) Reduced income variability from fluctuating market prices within seasons; improved cash flow and ability to self-finance costs Cost savings from reduced cost and application of chemical inputs; income and productivity increase from early disease and pest prevention; potential for expansion of crop insurance to reduce financial risks Reduced harvest/income losses due to drought and erratic rainfall patterns; reduced runoff of agricultural inputs into watersheds and community water sources Improved profit margins due to reduction or elimination of tilling and plowing expenses Reduced herbicide input costs; reduced soil-borne pathogen infection of plants, with resultant increased yields and quality; reduced drudgery of hand weeding productivity (better root development with raised beds); reduced soil runoff into watersheds and water ecosystems productivity and improved quality; reduced chemical input costs with pest barriers Reduced fertilizer input costs; increased productivity and yield; increased gross margins and incomes Increased productivity and income through reduced pest, disease, and wind losses; reduced chemical input costs Diversified income source; increased income Increased productivity and income through reduced pest and disease losses; reduced chemical input costs productivity; reduced risk and potential losses; potential decreased requirements for fertilizers and other farm chemicals 5

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