Fresh Connections Global Retail Trends
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1 Fresh Connections Global Retail Trends June 26, 2014 Flat Global Retail Economy US Retail = LUKEWARM Slightly accelerating consumer economy. European Union Retail = FLAT TO DECLINE Continued retail contraction, higher taxes, and slowed spending. Russia Retail = UP Strong oil prices result in growth a retail. India Retail = FLAT TO SLIGHT DECLINE Rebuilding economic production from Retail = UP the earthquake. Disposable incomes are increasing Retail = CLOUDY Fighting inflation. Japan Brazil Retail = UP Continued growth of consumer credit South Africa Retail = LUKEWARM to FLAT Fighting inflation Australia Retail = LUKEWARM to FLAT Continued price pressure at retail Booz & Co 2 1
2 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Societal Increased global food demand Urbanization Technological Adoption of mobile smart devices E-Commerce Environmental Extreme weather Economic High crop prices Rising demand for biofuels Consolidation 3 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Societal One in eight people in the world were suffering from chronic undernourishment in (United Nations; FAO) decreased nearly 30 percent in Asia and the Pacific due to socio-economic progress in many countries in the region Population growth in developing nations is key driver for consumer demand of fresh product. Growing urban areas in emerging markets will continue to reshape global markets 100 new cities will be in in
3 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Technological Disruption at Retail: Mobile technology/smart devices Increases competition - Allows suppliers, manufacturers, buyers and wholesalers to sell direct to the consumer. Puts power is in the hands of the consumer forcing retailers to deliver tailored shopping. Consumers using smart phones for purchases United States 60% Thailand 51% Russia 33% 21% Australia 10% 5 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Technological E-commerce 2.3 Billion people purchasing food and alcohol online worldwide. Imaginations everywhere have been stoked since Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos announced his company plans to start offering 30-minute deliveries via drone-like "octocopters." 6 3
4 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Environmental Severe weather events drive-up food prices beyond the current forecasts. World Bank, IMF and economic community in agreement on rising temperatures and more turbulent events to come. Key food-growing regions across the southeast and the southwest Australia are likely to experience more droughts in the future. (theguardian.com) 7 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Economic Crop prices will continue to rise due to greater demand, higher input costs and erratic weather. Rising demand for biofuels is creating food inflation in developed nations according to the World Bank. Nearly 60% of the growth in global demand for oilseed/cereal crops is due to biofuels. 8 4
5 Macro forces driving global retail trends: Economic Global Retail Landscape Hypermarkets - High level of concentration and competition Largest global hypermarket retailers dominated by European companies, except Wal-Mart o Slightly decline in sales in due to saturation in key markets o Increased competition from other formats Conventional Supermarkets High level of concentration and competition Concentration in U.S. and Japan o Both markets experienced declining sales over Intense competition from hypermarkets and supercenters, limited assortment stores and internet Aldi Significant growth in Australia / Aldi & Lidl growing in Europe Convenience Stores global sales increase from High prevalence in Asia Pacific Strong performance in Western Europe 9 Modern Retailing in Family Mart Convenience Store in Shanghai DIA Discounter in Shanghai 10 5
6 Modern Retailing in Carrefour Hypermarket in Shanghai Lianhua Supermarket in Shanghai RT Mart Hypermarket in Shanghai 11 Modern Retailing - Asia Hypermarkets sales growth slows due to saturation o Food, especially fresh produce and meat, is a traffic driver Supermarkets registered a 10% increase in sales in 2013 and account for a 47% share of grocery retail sales. Fruit and vegetable share in supermarkets is 35%. Convenience stores growth gathers speed Asia Pacific (outside of ) Strong expansion of Hypermarkets accompanied by urbanization o Driven by local retailers, which have become more efficient (ex: Resources) and focused on second-tier cities o Malaysia o Thailand o Indonesia 12 6
7 Modern Retailing - Online sales Internet retailing appeals to consumers because of: o convenience o extensive product ranges o perceived improved quality 31 leading grocery retailers launched internet retailing stores Yonghui Superstores entered the online channel (2013), aggressively focusing on fresh food. Internet sales of food and beverages in is expected to grow from 7% of internet sales in 2013 (41 million RMB) to 11% of internet sales in 2018 (205 million RMB) Asia Pacific Smartphones and tablets are expected to boost online retail sales to $428 billion a year by 2018 from $186 billion in (The Economic Times) Emerging markets like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand accept cash-on-delivery for products purchased online in order to ease consumers' suspicions about fraud. (Euromonitor) 13 Modern Retailing - Authenticity, Transparency & Trust Food scandals including food safety incidents have resulted in Chinese consumers: Lack of confidence s supply chain Chinese consumers seek out large foreign brands for reliability and quality. ( Market Research.) Actively seeking information to protect themselves from harmful products Increasingly turning to organic and chemical free Chinese products Increasingly turning to imports Between 2007 and 2012, imported fruits sales increased from 15% to 45% of total fruits sales in s top ranking supermarket chain. Allen Wang, CMO, Google Asia 14 7
8 Modern Retailing - Packaging High demand for loose/bulk fruits and vegetables due to traditional consumption habits Demand for convenience packaging increasing due to hectic lifestyles in first-tier cities Asia Pacific Increasing demand for aseptic packaging o Eliminates microorganisms and bacteria o Extends shelf life o Help provide customers with fresher tasting food Packaging offers opportunity for branding 15 Modern Retailing - Direct Sourcing Growing numbers of retailers looking for direct sourcing Addresses consumers concerns about food safety Reduce costs / potential improvement of quality 16 8
9 Retail Panel Tristan Harris - Harris Farm Markets Stephen Sexton - Countdown Shane Bourk - Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. () Dave Stewart - My Greengrocer 17 9
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