AGEC 429: AGRICULTURAL POLICY. LECTURE 21: Guest Speaker: Dr. James Richardson: Performance of 2014 Farm Bill and prospects for a 2018 Farm Bill

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1 AGEC 429: AGRICULTURAL POLICY LECTURE 21: Guest Speaker: Dr. James Richardson: Performance of 2014 Farm Bill and prospects for a 2018 Farm Bill

2 GUEST SPEAKER Dr. James W. Richardson, Co-Director Regents Professor Texas AgriLife Senior Faculty Fellow Department of Agricultural Economics Dr. Richardson has research and graduate teaching responsibilities in public policy and simulation analysis. His research has attracted national recognition by emphasizing quantitative, risk based policy analyses through the use of farm-level simulation models (FLIPSIM). Evaluating the farm-level impacts of agricultural and tax policies on crop, livestock, and dairy farms is Richardson's specialty. His research is largely responsible for the ability of AFPC to evaluate the implications of policy decisions at the farm level -- the analytical dimension for which the Center is best known. As new policies are considered, their consequences are evaluated and the results are provided to policymakers, producers, producer groups, and policy analysts. He received degrees in agricultural economics from New Mexico State University and Oklahoma State University. He has received numerous awards such as Lifetime Achievement Awards from the Southern Agricultural Economics Association and from the Western Agricultural Economics Association; five Awards for Professional Excellence from the American Agricultural Economics Association, the TAMU Faculty Distinguished Achievement Award for Research and for Student Mentoring, Southern Agricultural Economics Association Distinguished Professional Contribution Award for Research and for Extension and the TAMU Deputy Chancellor's Distinguished Performance Team Awards for both Research and for Extension Education twice.

3 Ag Policy Update James W. Richardson Senior Regents Professor Co-Director, AFPC AGECO 429 April 5, 2018

4 Presentation Outline Environment of writing a farm bill -- Outlook for Agriculture Money Available? The 4 Principals and Key Farm Bill Issues - The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 Other Issues That Could Impact Farm Bill Seed Cotton & Decision Aid Section 199A Fix Conclusions Farm Bill

5 Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) Operations We have been analyzing policy alternatives for Congress since Joint Extension and Research Center - Have always assisted with farm bill signups from hand worksheets to 2002 Base and Yield to where we are today Since 1985 we have been involved in the development of every Farm Bill Each Year we develop a 5 year projection of the health of farming to advise Congress Today agriculture is facing a severe cash flow problem

6

7 Definition of Financial Position Good Less than 25% chance of a negative ending cash balance and less than 25% chance of losing real net worth Marginal A 25-50% chance of a negative ending cash balance and a 25 50% chance of losing real net worth Poor Greater than 50% chance of a negative ending cash balance and a greater than 50% chance of losing real net worth

8 AFPC Representative Feedgrain Farms

9 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Feedgrain Farms, FAPRI Baselines 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Poor Marginal Good

10 AFPC Representative Wheat Farms WA WAA OR MT CO KSN KSC

11 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Wheat Farms, FAPRI Baselines 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Poor Marginal Good

12 AFPC Representative Cotton Farms

13 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Cotton Farms, FAPRI Baselines 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Poor Marginal Good

14 AFPC Representative Rice Farms

15 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Rice Farms, FAPRI Baselines 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Poor Marginal Good

16 AFPC Representative Dairies WA VT ID WI NYW NYC NV CA MO TXN TXE TXC FLN FLS

17 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Dairies, FAPRI Baselines 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Poor Marginal Good

18 AFPC Representative Ranches MT WY SD NV CO NVS NM MO TXR TX FL

19 Overall Economic Viability of Representative Ranches, FAPRI Baselines 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Poor Marginal Good

20

21 Farm Survival Publication In anticipation of the cash flow problems in Agriculture we developed a guide to help farmers --

22 Writing the Next Farm Bill: Every Farm Bill Is Different Examples FB (Freedom to Farm) was driven by Newt Gingrich and Pat Roberts FB was a reversion back to counter-cyclical policies used prior to 1996 FB and also kept direct payments FB gave farmers a choice between 2002 FB programs and ACRE FB gave farmers a choice between a revenue program and a price program. There were some seemingly small changes that made a very big difference like yield exclusion or 2019 FB is a status quo bill (no new money). Hard to make it much better for anyone without hurting some other segment of the bill.

23 Money Available for Farm Bill Title 2008 Farm Bill Score Farm Bill Score June 2017 CBO Score Commodities 87,179 44,458 58,720 Conservation 50,699 57,600 59,804 Trade 3,715 3,574 3,056 Nutrition 397, , ,181 Credit -2,321-2,240-5,398 Rural Development Research, Extension, and Related Matters 1,290 1, Forestry Energy 43 1, Horticulture 0 1,755 1,812 Crop Insurance 52,743 89,827 77,419 Miscellaneous 13,668 2,363 2,199 Total Outlays 604, , ,498

24 June 2017 CBO Baseline by Title Mandatory Spending Only Million $

25 The Big 3 Crops Account for Almost 90% of Planted Acres There is a reason corn, bean and to a lessor extent wheat representatives think they should have the most say If it wasn t for the power of Southern and Western politics they likely would have much more say Our system works elected officials try to do their best for their constituents

26 PROGRAM PAYMENT SUMMARY 2016 Predicted in CBO April 2014 Baseline 2016 Actual Price Loss Coverage Corn 1,117 0 Sorghum Barley 93 0 Oats 15 0 Total Feed Grains 1,339 0 Soybeans Wheat Rice Peanuts Other Oilseeds 18 0 Dry Peas 6 55 Lentils 0 0 Small Chickpeas 0 0 Large Chickpeas 0 0 Total Price Loss Coverage 2, Agriculture Risk Coverage - County Corn 835 3,762 Sorghum Barley 2 7 Oats 1 2 Total Feed Grains 862 3,808 Soybeans Wheat Rice 1 0 Peanuts 0 0 Other Oilseeds Dry Peas 0 1

27

28 Key Features of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 for Agriculture? Government funded through March 23rd Suspends the nearly $20.5 trillion statutory debt limit until March 1, 2019 Includes $89 billion for hurricane and wildfire victims Retroactive biodiesel credit for 2017 Seed cotton included as covered commodity in Title I Dairy MPP changes and eliminates $20 million cap on crop insurance for livestock producers

29 Key Features of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 for Cotton Cotton producers back in Title 1 for the 2018 farm bill as Seed Cotton Cotton producers faced with decisions Base acres for seed cotton 1. Convert 80% generic base acres to seed cotton, or 2. Average planted acres of cotton , or 3. Reallocate all base acres for all crops using average planted acres Decide on PLC or ARC program for seed cotton Update payment yield for PLC Seed cotton payment yield = 2.4 * lint yield

30

31 Key Features of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 for Agriculture? (Cont.) Eliminates the $125,000-per-producer payment cap in the Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) Doubles the acreage eligible for Tree Assistance Removes the $20 million annual cap on the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees and Farm-Raised Fish Program

32 Issues that Could Impact Timing of and/or Derail the Farm Bill This Year Immigration Reform Welfare Reform Budget to Improve Infrastructure Trade - NAFTA - China - TPP - Tarriffs and a trade war Primary elections and November election - Congressional Calendar

33

34 2018 State Primary Election Dates Number of States March April May June July August September October November Texas is March 6th

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36 Conclusions Getting cotton and dairy handled outside of bill helps a lot Lots and lots of politics going on right now For 3 years I have said the bill won t be done until 2019 earlier this year I changed my mind. Now feeling pretty stupid but there is a chance if the bill moves this summer as planned Mr. Conaway cannot be anymore accommodating than he already has been it s time to go He gave D s everything they requested in SNAP after more than 20 hearings on the subject

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