U.S. Fertilizer Situation and Outlook for 2009

Transcription

1 U.S. Fertilizer Situation and Outlook for 9 Wen-yuan Huang Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Introduction Historic consumption Historical prices Fertilizer production and production capacity Fertilizer expense Fertilizer costs per acre and share of operating costs Background Declining production capacity Increasing dependence on global trade Factors contributing rising prices Supply Demand Presentation at the ICAC 9th standing committee meeting Washington, DC, January, 9 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the views of USDA Volatile Fertilizer Prices in Surge Fall Outlook for 9 Phosphate Conclusions Large increase in nitrogen U.S. Consumption of Plant Nutrients, 19-7 Million nutrieent tons 1 Price increased sharply in early and drop late Prices of fertilizer nutreints increased sharply to historical highs in Dollars/pound of nutrient Phosphate... phosphate Price is the average for April of each year. N itrogen prices are average prices of nitrogen nutrient in anhydrous ammonia, nitrogen solution and urea. Phosphate prices are the PO prices of superphosphate. prices are the KO prices of muriate of potash. Fertilizer Year Source: USDA, Economic Research Service Introduction 1

2 Highest cost for Corn Fertilizer costs per acre and as a share of total operating costs, 7 Dollars per acre Percent Corn Wheat Oats Barley Grain sorghum Rice Sugarbeets Peanuts Soybeans Cotton Source: USDA, ERS production capacity and production decline Phosphate production capacity and production decline Figure 3. U.S. ammonia production and production capacity Million material tons Figure. U.S. phosphate (PO) production and production capacity capacity production capacity Backgroun d Fertilizer Note: Fertilizer year runs from July of the preceding year to June of the year indicated in the chart Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using capacity data from IFDC and production data from DOC. Fertilizer Note: Fertilizer year runs f rom July of the preceding year to June of the year indicated in the chart. capacity refers to production capacity of w et-process phosphoric acid. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using capacity data from IFDC and production data from DOC.

3 producrion capacity and production stagnate Increasing dependence on imports Figure. U.S. potash (KO) production capacity and production Figure. U.S. nitrogen (N) supply from domestic production and net imports Net imports capacity Fertilizer year Note: Fertilizer year runs f rom July of the preceding year to June of the year indicated in the chart. production is based on quantity of ammonia produced. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using DOC data for nitrogen production and ERS trade data for net imports. Calendar year Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using capacity data from IFDC and production data from USGS. Phosphate exports decline Increasing dependence on Imports 1 1 Figure 7. U.S. phosphate supply for domestic consumption and exports 9 Figure. U.S. potash (KO) supply from domestic production and net imports 1 1 Domestic consumption 7 Net impor ts 3 Net Ex por ts Note: Fertilizer year runs f rom July of the preceding year to June of the year indicated in the chart. Phosphate production is based on the quantity of phosphoric acid produced. Domestic consumption = production - net exports Calendar year Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using DOC data for phosphate production and ERS trade data for net exports. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using production data from USGS and net import data from ERS' trade data. 3

4 Factors contributing to rising prices from - Supply Price surged and declining Indexes of prices paid by U.S. farmers Percent ( price index = 1) Rising energy costs Rising transportation costs Rising raw material input costs Falling value of the U.S. dollar Strength of export fertilizer associations Increasing concentration in fertilizer industries 7 Phosphate and potash Fertilizer Demand 3 Global population and economic growth Increased global consumption of phosphate and potash Foreign trade policies Subsidization of fertilizers High commodity prices and cash returns 1 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan- Feb- Mar- Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from NASS Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Volatile prices Ammonia price surged and declining Urea price surged and declining Gulf NOLA barge ammonia prices at the end of the month U.S.Gulf prill import urea prices at the end of the month Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from Green Narkets Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from Green Markets

5 DAP (phosphate) price surged and declining price surged 1 Central Florida DAP prices at the end of the month 9 Saskatchewan Sandard Muriate prices at the end of the month Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from Green Markets Source: USDFA, Economic Research Service using data from Green Markets Price decline in late Softening global fertilizer demand in reaction to the fertilizer price spike and declining crop prices. Disruption in U.S. fertilizer demand for fall applications because of a short application window (caused by late crop harvests following delayed planting in the spring because of wet weather). An increase in fertilizer supplies (from July to August, ) from imports. A decline in fertilizer feedstock prices (such as natural gas, sulfur and phosphate rock, and costs to transport). A recent disruption in financial markets for fertilizer purchases, and possible deflation effects. However, ammonia retail prices are not declining as much as producers prices (Green Markets). Congested distribution supply chains due to farmers postponing purchases.

6 Declines in domestic production of ammonia and phosphate Declines in nitrogen and potash imports (Nov.) and increase in Phosphate exports B. Net imports I. November Outlook Fertilizer supplies for 9 crops. A. Domestic production Ammonia Phosphate (PO) April-September (1 tons),, NA Percent change from 7 (%) Source: USDA, economic Research Service using data from DOC NA II. July-November (N) Phosphate (PO) (KO) (1 tons) * Net exports increased 313% (N) Phosphate (PO) (KO) (1 tons) * Net exports increased 3% Percent change from 7 (%) * -1 Percent change from 7 (%) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from DOC -1-3* 1 Expected price rebounds in spring 9 Many of the causes of the recent spike in fertilizer prices could still place upward pressures on fertilizer prices in spring 9. The fertilizer supply in U.S. is expected to decline due to production cutbacks by industries (Yara, Terra, Agrium, Corp, and Mosaic company, for example). And due to import decline because of falling prices and congested distribution supply chains in the U.S. Fertilizer demand likely stays high. Projected lows in U.S. corn, wheat, and soybean stocks for /9 and government s continuing ethanol mandate are likely to keep crop prices above their historic average. Conclusions The currently low ammonia and urea prices (below production costs) may not be sustainable. Expected high fertilizer demand from feed and food grain production, tighter nitrogen supplies are expected in spring 9, again putting upward pressure on nitrogen prices. Tight supplies due to limited U.S. production of DAP and MAP, coupled with high production costs and expected strong global demand, may keep phosphate prices above their historic trend levels this spring. Canpotex, the export marketing association in Canada, signed a new contract to supply potash to Japanese customers at a delivered price of just over $9 per metric ton ($17 per short ton) in November. This will likely become the benchmark price for potash marketed in 9.

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