2012 Farm Outlook. Highlights

Transcription

1 2012 Farm Outlook Office of the Chief Economist USDA Highlights A promising spring planting was followed by historic drought. Record high commodity prices followed. Farm incomes are expected to be near record levels. Food inflation is expected to tick up next year. Agricultural Exports are expected to be at record levels. Ethanol production expected to slowdown. 1

2 Drought Intensifies May 22, 2012 September 4,

3 World Corn Production Country or Region estimate 2012/13 forecast previous month Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union FSU Ukraine South Africa China

4 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand estimate 2012/13 forecast last month Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks 1,128 1, Production 12,358 10, Total supply 13,511 11, Feed and residual 4,400 4, Food, seed, and industrial 6,390 5, Ethanol 5,000 4, Domestic use 10,790 10, Exports 1,540 1, Total use 12,330 11, Ending stocks 1, Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / U.S. Corn Harvested before September 1 Billion bushels 1.2 Percent Corn Harvested Percent F Note: Based on forecast production from the September, 2012, Crop Production report and reported harvest progress from the weekly Crop Progress report and State level crop progress reports. 4

5 Bil gallons 16 Weekly Ethanol Production (annualized) Jun 04, 2010 Jul 09, 2010 Aug 13, 2010 Sep 17, 2010 Oct 22, 2010 Nov 26, 2010 Dec 31, 2010 Feb 04, 2011 Mar 11, 2011 Apr 15, 2011 May 20, 2011 Jun 24, 2011 Jul 29, 2011 Sep 02, 2011 Oct 07, 2011 Nov 11, 2011 Dec 16, 2011 Jan 20, 2012 Feb 24, 2012 Mar 30, 2012 May 04, 2012 Jun 08, 2012 Jul 13, 2012 Aug 17,

6 World Soybean Production Country or Region estimate 2012/13 forecast previous month Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China

7 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2012/13 estimate forecast last month Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 3,056 2, Imports Total supply 3,287 2, Crush 1,705 1, Seed and residual Domestic use 1,797 1, Exports 1,360 1, Total use 3,157 2, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price / U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand estimate 2012/13 forecast last month Thousand short tons Percent Percent Beginning stocks Production 41,250 35, Imports Total supply 41,800 36, Domestic use 32,000 29, Exports 9,500 6, Total use 41,500 36, Ending stocks Dollars/short ton Average market price /

8 World Wheat Production Country or Region estimate 2012/13 forecast previous month Million Tons Percent Percent World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Russian Federation Ukraine Kazakhstan China India U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand estimate 2012/13 forecast last month Percent Percent Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Million bushels Beginning stocks Production 1,999 2, Imports Total supply 2,974 3, Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use 1,181 1, Exports 1,050 1, Total use 2,231 2, Ending stocks Percent Stocks to use ratio Dollars per bushel Average market price /

9 Dairy feed ratio Avg : Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Poultry feed ratio Avg : Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 9

10 Hog corn price ratio Avg : Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 $ billion 80 Total crop receipts are forecast up 6.6 percent to $222 billion, led primarily by corn and soybeans Receipts for selected crops, F F Corn Soybeans Fruits and nuts Vegetables Wheat Cotton 10

11 $ billion Total livestock receipts forecast down slightly to $165.8 billion Receipts for selected livestock products, F F Cattle and calves Dairy Broilers Hogs Production expenses forecast up over $18 billion led by increased feed expenses Changes in major expense items, F F 13.2% $ billion % 9.5% 1.1% 6.5% 4.9% 10.9% 3.2% 1.8% 7.6% Marketing Pesticides Interest Fuels Repairs Seed Livestock & poultry Labor Fertilizer Feed 0 11

12 $ billion After a 36% jump in 2011, net cash income expected to increase slightly in Net cash income less payments Direct government payments F Farmer participation in crop insurance programs is up significantly since 1988, which should provide a safety net for the majority of crop producers. Crop Insurance Coverage % participation rate % participation rate State Percent of corn insured in 2011 Percent of soybeans insured in 2011 Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Missouri Ohio Source; RMA, State Profiles, July

13 Food Inflation Forecast Annual food inflation in 2012 and 2013 are expected to remain near the 8 year average. In 2012, retail prices are expected to fall relative to In 2013, retail prices are expected to rise slightly. Item Annual Forecast Forecast Consumer Price Indexes All food to to 4.0 Food away from home to to 3.5 Food at home to to 4.0 Meats, poultry, and fish to to 4.0 Eggs to to 4.0 Dairy products to to 4.5 Fats and oils to to 3.0 Fruits and vegetables to to 3.0 Sugar and sweets to to 3.0 Cereals and bakery products to to 4.0 Nonalcoholic beverages to to 3.5 Other foods to to 4.5 Source. USDA ERS (The most recent forecast was published on July 25th, 2012 and is updated by the 25th of each month). 13