16 th October, Turmeric Crop Survey & Analysis 2015
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- Antony Gardner
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1 Turmeric Crop Survey &
2 02-Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-15 Rs Per Quintal 16 th October, 2015 Ravi Dsouza Research Analyst Nikhil Murali Research Associate Kunal Shah Research Head Market Recap The Turmeric crop year of began on a good note this year as the southwest monsoon arrived on time. Weather conditions were ideal at the start of the sowing season. Turmeric price witnessed a gradual correction from June as the pace of sowing picked up. Turmeric prices corrected from the high of Rs.9348 per quintal recorded in January 2015 and fell to Rs.6664 per quintal by July The fall in prices did not sustain and Turmeric prices began its up move by the mid of August as the progress of southwest monsoon was disappointing. Turmeric prices moved up and hit a high of Rs.8728 per quintal by the end of August 2015 as weather conditions turned unfavourable for the crop. Turmeric prices have remained on the higher side since August 2015 as below average rainfall from July till the end of September has severely impacted the yield and dented the prospects of a bountiful crop this season. Lower carry forward stocks in the season has further fuelled the price rally. Daily Turmeric Price: Source: NCDEX, Reuters 1
3 Balance Sheet Particulars(In lakh bags) E E E F Opening Stock Source: Traders, NB Research Production Total Supply Dom. Consumption Exports Total Consumption Closing Stock Stock to Usage Ratio Note: Each bag is 75Kg The year is going to witness a serious demand-supply crunch as we will begin the year with an all time low carry forward stocks of lakh bags as compared to lakh bags in In the year we have seen production drop by 15 percent to 45 lakh bags due to lower acreage and unfavorable climatic conditions. The shift of acreage was mainly caused due to poor realization rates to cultivators in the last marketing year i.e Through our crop survey and analysis in the main turmeric tracts of India, we came to a conclusion that the turmeric production of India in will be in the range of 375, ,000 metric tonnes (i.e lakh bags) which is slightly more than last year s figures of 337,500 metric tonnes (i.e. 45 lakh bags). It has to be noted that last year, the turmeric production was least in the near past due to harsh weather conditions. Though this year we had a deficient monsoon in some turmeric growing areas, the increase in acreage in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh owing to favourable climatic conditions will compensate for the lower production in other areas. In the year we expect supply-demand situation to worsen as the total supply is expected to drop by 17 percent to lakh bags as compared to lakh bags, while demand is expected to be in the range of lakh bags leaving the carry out stocks at a minuscule figure of only 2.8 lakh bags. Stock to usage ratio is expected to fall to an all time low of 4.46 percent as compared to percent in
4 (F) In tons In lakhs Hectare 16 th October, 2015 Area Under Cultivation A.P & Telangana Karnataka Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Others Source: NB Research, Trade Sources Exports 100,000 Quantity (LHS) Value (RHS) ,000 80,000 70,000 60, , ,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: Spice Board of India 3
5 India is the largest producer and consumer of turmeric in the world. Despite this, India has the largest share in world exports. Top export destinations of Indian turmeric are U.A.E., Bangladesh, Malaysia, Iran, UK and USA. Exports of turmeric have risen significantly since 2011 due to quality control initiative undertaken by the Spice Board of India on quality control. Many of the developed countries like the US, the UK and Japan are showing keen interest in purchasing Indian turmeric due to high degree of quality consciousness being followed by Indian exporters. Turmeric exports are expected to fall to 80,000 tonnes in from 86,000 tons in as exporters will find it difficult to procure Turmeric due to higher prices and lower availability. Key Observations from our Crop Survey Our research team visited the major turmeric growing regions Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Warangal (Telangana) and Sangli (Maharashtra) in the first week of October We had detailed discussions with each of the VCPs - Farmers, Brokers, Traders, Exporters, etc. which gave a clear picture regarding climatic conditions prevailing there, the crop growth status, the intricacies involved in the turmeric trade, trade opportunities prevailing in the sector and so on. Key Findings Telangana Nizamabad region of Telangana is a major contributor to India s Turmeric production, accounting to about 25 percent of the total production. We visited the Armoor belt of Nizamabad which comprises the villages of Ankapur, Anksapoor and regions of Karimnagar like Metpally and Jagtial. Turmeric is mainly intercropped with maize in this region. Sowing of turmeric in this region normally starts in the first week of June and this year also it was on time as it mostly depends on the timely onset and progress of monsoon. But the months of July and August were rain-deficient and it raised many eyebrows regarding the growth of the crop. When we visited the turmeric farms, the crops were almost 4 months old. To our surprise, the deficient rainfall in this region hadn t taken a heavy toll on the crop as most of the fields were drip-irrigated. But we can t ignore the fact that the soil is under moisture stress and the diminishing water table coupled with the prevailing high temperatures (About C compared to ideal temp range of C) has visibly affected the growth of the crop. 4
6 Nizamabad Crop Scenario Ankapur Anksapur Stunted Growth Stunted Growth The crops were only feet tall as against the normal height of feet within 4 months duration. Normally the fingers of the plant must be 5-7 in numbers and 3-4 long; but we found that this year it s less in number i.e. about 3-4 only. Considering all these factors we conclude that there will be a dip in the yield of the crop. This year we expect the yield to be around 6.47 tonnes/ha compared to last year s figure of 6.59 tonnes/ha. Also considering the decrease in acreage of turmeric in this region from 13,655 ha to 12,747 ha, we expect the production to be in the range of 78,750 82,500 metric tonnes. In Warangal region, turmeric acreage dropped from 8,956 ha last year to 7,558 ha this year. So we expect the production figures to be in the range of 18,750 22,500 metric tonnes which is slightly lower than last year. From our survey we got to know that there is a dip in the acreage of Turmeric in Telangana from 44,623 ha to 40,830 ha. Considering the looming concerns regarding yield, we expect the total turmeric production in Telangana to be less this year, around 97,500 metric tonnes. 5
7 Andhra Pradesh In Andhra Pradesh, there is an increase in the turmeric acreage- from 12,333 ha last year to 19,377 ha this year. The acreage in almost all the major turmeric growing districts - YSR Kadapa, Guntur, Krishna, Kurnool, and Visakhapatnam increased this year. Though the crop is in the vegetative stage, any major crop damage hasn t been reported till now. Considering these facts we expect the production figures to be around 45,000 48,750 metric tonnes for Maharashtra & Karnataka We visited Sangli, the Turmeric City of Maharashtra, an epithet proven true by the fact that it s India s largest turmeric trading centre. The turmeric growing belt of Sangli comprises of villages in and around Sangli like Islampur and areas like Athani in Northern Karnataka. In these regions turmeric is mainly intercropped with Sugarcane. Sowing in this region is normally carried out in the period of 25 May 15 June. This year we witnessed a drought-like scenario in parts of Northern Karnataka and Marathwada, as we observed a decline in the turmeric acreage in Karnataka from 16,801 ha to 11,761 ha for Sangli Crop Scenario 79 Islampur Tasgaon Sangli Crop Status 6
8 But the situation was not that worse in Sangli region which was visible in the condition of the crops. The crops were approx 3 feet tall (4 months old crop) and were devoid of any pests or diseases. Overall, the crops are in good condition and we expect the yield to be more this year. So in Sangli region, we expect the production to be higher this year around 60,000 metric tonnes. But the acreage in Maharashtra as a whole dipped from 9,887 ha in to 6,920 ha in the current season. And it has to be noted that other major turmeric growing regions of Maharashtra such as Hingoli, Basmat and Nanded received a deficient monsoon this year and the crops are obviously under moisture stress. So we expect the production in this belt to be around 45,000 metric tonnes, slightly lower than last year s figures. Tamil Nadu Erode region in Tamil Nadu is one of the major turmeric growing regions of the country contributing around 30% of the country s total production. Sowing season in this region starts from June end only. The acreage in the whole of Tamil Nadu rose from 46,160 ha last year to 53,129 ha this year, about 15% increase owing to good and timely rainfall. The plants in Erode region are reported to be around 1-2 feet high (3 months old) as on now which shows that the plants are in good condition. Taking all these facts into consideration, we expect the production to be in the range of 97, ,000 metric tonnes this year. Non-traditional/Small growing areas Other turmeric growing tracts comprising Kerala, Assam, etc. account for about 38,160 ha of turmeric cultivation. But these are mostly grown for household consumption and other domestic purposes. Indian Production Scenario Through our crop survey and analysis in the main turmeric tracts of India, we came to a conclusion that the turmeric production of India in will be in the range of 337, ,000 metric tonnes ( i.e lakh bags) which is slightly more than last year s figures of 300,000 metric tonnes (i.e. 40 lakh bags). It has to be noted that last year, the turmeric production was least in the near past due to harsh weather conditions. Though this year we had a deficient monsoon in some turmeric growing areas, the increase in acreage in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh owing to favourable climatic conditions will compensate for the lower production in other areas. 7
9 Outlook The crop year is going to witness a tight supply and demand situation as lower carry forward stocks coupled with a marginal rise in production will leave the supply side with a huge strain. We expect prices to rise during October-November 2015 as demand for spices generally rises during the festive season in India. Turmeric Prices will witness a correction during the period of January-March 2016 as new crop arrival generally arrives during this period, but we do not see a sharp fall in prices during the arrival season this year due to lower availability. Looking at the demand and supply situation we are bullish on Turmeric and recommend buying the NCDEX December turmeric futures contract for a target of Rs. 9,000-9,500 per quintal by the end of this year i.e. December
10 RESEARCH TEAM Name Designation Kunal Shah Head of Research Devidas Rajadhikary Sr. Technical Analyst Harshal Mehta Sr. Technical Analyst Mohammed Azeem Technical Analyst Somya Dixit Research Analyst Ravi D souza Research Analyst ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com Nikhil Murali Research Associate nikhil.murali@nirmalbang.com Anish G Research Associate anish.g@nirmalbang.com Smit Bhayani Research Associate smit.bhayani@nirmalbang.com Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. N.B. Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. N.B. Commodities Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. N.B. Commodities Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. Address: Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt. Ltd., B2, 301 / 302, 3rd Floor, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai , India 9
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