Changing landscape for livestock production in Europe Directions and expected change in the next years

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1 Changing landscape for livestock production in Europe Directions and expected change in the next years Anne Mottet Livestock Policy Officer, FAO

2 Outline EU projections for the main sub-sectors: meat and milk production should continue to grow over the next decade and exports may increase But more economic volatility is expected (e.g. dairy sector) The CAP reform could result in some geographical shifts Adaptation to climate change will be a constraint, but not to everyone and is impacting diseases patterns 2

3 EU per capita meat consumption is expected to recover from economic crisis levels Source: DG Agri, EC 3

4 Beef: decrease Herd reduction Low export growth in South America Demand declines Source: DG Agri, EC 4

5 Pork: rebound Welfare regulation had slowed down the growth High demand for exports Source: DG Agri, EC 5

6 Poultry: growth Slightly slower than recent growth due to low beef and pork supplies High demand, both domestic and for export Source: DG Agri, EC 6

7 Global milk production is growing Removing quotas could lead to a limited growth of production, especially if competition from NZ, Argentina and Brazil remains high Source: OCDE-FAO 7

8 Europe remains a global milk supplier Source: IDF 8

9 Milk production will grow in already biggest member states Modeling production 2023/2012 (%) under certain price and market assumptions (JRC) Source: DG Agri, EC 9

10 Further concentration of milk production Higher animal density? 10

11 Exports of dairy products will continue to grow 2.5 Billion DE DK FR UK GR IE IT NL PL Source: Eurostat

12 Dynamic cheese market development High demand for exports with emerging outlets (Brazil, Asia ) EU market not yet saturated (esp. new member states) Source: DG Agri, EC 12

13 Impact of the 2014 Russian ban Private Storage Aid for butter, Skimmed Milk Powder and certain cheeses? Reserve for Crises in the agricultural sector (CAP 2014) 424m in 2014 by cutting 1% off farmers Direct Payments Source: Eurostat-Comext/Treatment INRA SMART LERECO 13

14 Less cows, more milk Source: DG Agri, EC 14

15 Milk price volatility higher after 2015? 15

16 Income volatility slows down investments Source: Institut de l Elevage 16

17 Dairy farm consolidation - more animals per farm Source: Eurostat Nb dairy cows/farm Denmark Germany Ireland Spain France Netherlands Poland United Kingdom * 2035* 17

18 More animals per farmers Livestock units per annual work unit Denmark Germany Ireland Spain France Netherlands Poland United Kingdom Livestock units per annual work unit Specialist dairy Specialist monogastrics Source: Eurostat 0 Denmark Germany Italy Spain France Netherlands Poland United Kingdom

19 Efficiency gains Production of milk protein per cow, index 1000 in Southern Asia Northern America South America World Africa Europe Source: FAOSTAT 19

20 Feed use efficiency Cereals and oil crops used as feed per protein output (index 100 in 1980) Southern Asia Africa Europe South America Northern America Eastern Asia Improve feed use efficiency (precision feeding, increased use of by-products, biotech and protein extraction from grass?) Source: FAOSTAT 20

21 2014 CAP reform : impact on production spatial distribution? External convergence by 2020 (1/3 of the gap to 90% of EU average) 21

22 What about greening the CAP? Crop diversification min. 3 crops on arable land; each crop between 5 70% of area Permanent grassland maintain at least 95% of hectares in 2014 Ecological focus areas no production on 7% of all eligible ha except perma. grassland 22

23 Climate change winners and losers? 23

24 Climate change and animal health Spread of bluetongue virus (sheep) across Europe artly attributed to CC through increased seasonal activity of the Culicoides vector. Gastro-intestinal parasites amplified with global warming and South species spreading to North. Ticks (primary arthropod vectors of zoonotic diseases in Europe, e.g. Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis) distribution towards higher altitudes and latitudes (IPCC, 2014). Impact on wildlife? 24

25 Wild animals population implications for animal health Densities of wild boar in Europe and wild boars numbers in the Russian Federation Khomenko et al, 2013, Empres Watch vol 28 25

26 Conclusions European livestock farmers are exposed to more and more variability: markets, policy, climate, disease threats Further concentration of livestock production in Northern Europe is expected, but what about animal densities? The trend of a CAP less market/income oriented and greener will continue To maintain a comparative advantage, European livestock needs to continue gaining in efficiency 26

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