Dairy Outlook Midwest & Great Plains Outlook Conference. Katelyn McCullock Dairy & Forage Economist Livestock Marketing Information Center

Transcription

1 Dairy Outlook 2014 Midwest & Great Plains Outlook Conference Katelyn McCullock Dairy & Forage Economist Livestock Marketing Information Center

2 KEY TO DAIRY 2014 Prices are record high in the first half. Profitability has been very good and will remain. Dairy demand remains strong worldwide Lower Feed Costs Rapid herd expansion: Inventory? Drought minimal impact or restrained growth? Export markets face more competition: Oceania production, EU Quota, Russia?

3 $ Per Pound ALL MILK PRICE Dollars per CWT Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Denotes New Record High *Previous was $22.10 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 08/04/14

4 $ Per Pound CLASS III CLASS IV DIFFERENCE IN MILK PRICE Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 08/04/14

5 $ Per Pound PRICE vs VOLUME CHEDDAR CHEESE 500 Pound Barrel, US, Weekly Mil. Pounds Price Volume Data Source: USDA-NASS 08/04/14

6 1000 MT 40 CHEESE AND CURD EXPORTS Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-FAS 08/06/14

7 Mil. Pounds 1175 TOTAL CHEESE IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: USDA/NASS 07/22/14

8 $ Per Pound 2.60 BUTTER PRICES US, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS 08/06/14

9 Mil. Pounds 350 BUTTER IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Avg Data Source: USDA/NASS 07/22/14

10 1000 MT 14 BUTTER AND OIL EXPORTS Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-FAS 08/06/14

11 $ per lb $2.35 OCEANIA BUTTER Biweekly $2.15 $1.95 $1.75 $1.55 $1.35 $1.15 $0.95 $0.75 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS 07/18/14

12 $ Per Pound MILK-FEED PRICE RATIO US, Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS 08/04/14

13 2013 returned to normal for many states 2011: Texas 8% of total U.S. production down to 3% CA represents 7% of U.S. hay production in 2013 Prices rose 56% nationally in 2011/2012 CA Hay: 30% higher than 2013 in July WEATHER: HAY

14 ALL HAY PRICE PERCENT CHANGES IN JULY % 18% -11% -23% -34% 30% 20% 9% 2% -24% -20% -34% -45% -3% -28% -33% 1% -31% -20% -23% -4% 2% 34% 20% 5% -6% National Prices: All Hay: 1.1% Alfalfa: 3.3% Other: -4.0% -4% -100% to -23% -23% to 0% 0% to 9% 9% to 35%

15 Percent 40 US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-30 08/11/14

16 $ Per Ton ALFALFA HAY MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Avg. 08/09-12/ / /15 Data Source: USDA-NASS G-P-12 08/04/14

17 $ Per Ton 160 OTHER HAY MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Avg. 08/09-12/ / /15 Data Source: USDA-NASS G-P-13 08/04/14

18 HAY OUTLOOK Objective yield numbers largely do not match price picture. Drought Monitor may be overstated

19 MILK PRODUCTION % 1.2% 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% West: 41% of Milk Production in 2013 Nationally, almost all states increasing total production. 20.5% 0.3% 1.0% 2.2% 1.7% 4.0% Milk per cow is unknown, sequestration.

20 Bil Pounds 17.2 MILK PRODUCTION 23 States, Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS 07/18/14

21 Thou. Head 9290 DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly Sequestration suspended data from March to July of 2013 from USDA-NASS. These graphs use LMIC estimates during this time. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS 07/18/14

22 DAIRY COW HERD REPLACEMENTS July 1 Inventory Percent of Cow Herd Data Source: USDA-NASS

23 JULY CATTLE INVENTORY Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures: A random sample of United States producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all cattle producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Data were collected during the first half of June from about 40,000 small and medium sized operations. These operators were contacted by face-to-face personal interviews. About 10,000 large producers and feedlots were contacted during the first half of July by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Operators were asked to report inventories as of the first of the month and calf crop for the entire year of Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve year to year and item to item relationships. Estimates for the previous year are subject to revision when current estimates are made and when the January 1 cattle inventory estimates are made. The revisions are primarily based on livestock slaughter and additional foreign trade and survey data. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date. Same as earlier years. Proportion of dairy sampled is ~40% had a dairy cows on their place of the 10, 000 large producers. Reliability estimates are not given for the specific categories. All Cows: Revisions are 0-600,000 head, average is about 210,000 Figures no longer rounded to the nearest 50 thousand head Overlap with the quarterly milk production survey.

24 MILK PRODUCTION REPORT Milk Production survey sample size ~10k producers all shapes and sizes. Reliability estimates, 0-10,000, average 4,000 Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions. However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Milk production report intended to be an average for the month. Meaning the July Milk Production Report data does not have to match July 1, cattle inventory July 1 inventory should be between June and July Milk Production Report.

25 IMPLICATIONS OF INVENTORY July Milk Production report: June revision should be down, with July slightly up from month earlier OR July Inventory comes in close to the July 1 figure Dairy Cow numbers are no longer growing. Beef herd also not retaining heifers -2% from 2012 (-2% from LMIC 2013 estimate, as well)

26 Thou. Head 215 HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-13 08/08/14

27 Thou. Head DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly Sequestration suspended data from March to July of 2013 from USDA-NASS. These graphs use LMIC estimates during this time. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Data Source: USDA-NASS 07/18/14

28 Thou. Head 75 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-35 08/07/14

29 Bil. $ 6.0 US DAIRY INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 02/06/14

30 Bil. $ US DAIRY INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Total Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 02/06/14

31 NEW ZEALAND DROUGHT

32 NEW ZEALAND DROUGHT

33 1000 MT 80 MILK AND CREAM EXPORTS Concentrated or Sweetened, Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Data Source: USDA-FAS 08/06/14

34 EXPORT GROWTH TWO-FOLD Mature vs. Emerging Markets Role of the Cold Chain Demand from existing markets Chinese economy Mexico World-wide increases in dairy

35 EXPORTS TO CHINA AND MEXICO EXPAND Thousands $ YTD Data Source: USDA-FAS China Mexico

36 Questions Katelyn McCullock Dairy & Forage Economist Website: Phone: