Red Meat and Poultry Outlook. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

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1 Red Meat and Poultry Outlook Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

2 Overview Current meat S&O Beef S&O Pork Poultry

3 Livestock producers situation

4 Red Meat and Poultry in Cold Storage Total number 9% higher compared to 07. Red meat unchanged Beef -9% Pork +8% Poultry +16% Chicken +12% Turkey +23% Millions JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL BEEF PORK POULTRY

5 Pork and Beef prices are higher compared to last year. Pork cutout has been record high lately $ Per Cwt HOG CUTOUT VALUE Weekly Major strength from hams and loins. Ribs and bellies are off from JAN APR JUL OCT Avg

6 Pork and Beef prices are higher compared to last year. Beef below last year for most of High likely occurred in early July. $ Per Cwt BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs. Carcass, Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT

7 Broiler wholesale prices have also been strong. SOME cost increases have been passed on. Cents Per Pound BROILER PRICES 12-City Composite, Weekly However, pressure from pork and beef has prohibited passing all of those costs along JAN APR JUL OCT Avg

8 Total Meat Supplies are Higher Total + 4.7% YTD compared to Beef = +2.0% Poultry +4.4% Pork +9.5% Bil. Pounds TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION Quarterly OCT-DEC JUL-SEP APR-JUN JAN-MAR 0.0 Avg. 2002/ M-S-31 07/14/08

9 Short Story More meat. Higher prices earlier in the year. However, a weak economy and burdensome supplies in Q2 and Q3 have conspired to depress wholesale prices.

10 Beef Cattle Situation & Outlook

11 $ Per Cwt. Feeder Cattle Situation A Tale of 2 Weights MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds & Pounds, Georgia, Weekly Prices for calves and feeders have almost converged JAN APR JUL OCT

12 Mil. Head 12.5 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly Avg JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-10 09/19/08

13 Lower Cattle Supplies in the Fall Mil. Head NET FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Net Placements lower. Feeders weighing more than 800# up. Feeders weighing less than 600# down. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-08 07/25/08

14 Projections for Remainder of 2008 and Early 2009 Quarter # Steers* # Steers* Live Cattle (5 Area) Cull Cows* 85-90% Q $99-$105 $92-$98 $90-$95 $52-$58 Q $90-$98 $85-$93 $85-$93 $42-$48 Q $100-$110 $85-$95 $93-99 $46-$54 Q $105-$120 $95-$103 $100-$107 $52-$60

15 2008/2009 Summary An improved economy would help beef demand. Larger total meat supplies in Q3 and Q4 could be troublesome. Corn crop (prices) vs. Live Cattle prices will continue to drive the train for feeder cattle prices.

16 Marketing Alternatives This Summer and Fall Current pricing scenario favors adding as much weight as possible. Stockering or backgrounding may be economical. Retained ownership may be profitable this year.

18 BEEF COWS THAT HAVE CALVED JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska Hawaii 272 US Total VT CT 6 NJ 9 DE 4 MD 44 NH 5 MA 9 RI 1.4 1,020 to 5,240 (9) 520 to 1,020 (11) 290 to 520 (9) 80 to 290 (11) 0 to 80 (10) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-15 02/01/08

19 CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2007 TO JANUARY 1, 2008 (1000 Head) Alaska -1 Hawaii -3 US Total MA 2 RI -0 CT -1 NJ 1 DE 0 MD -6 2 to 141 (13) 1 to 2 (3) -6 to 1 (13) -25 to -6 (11) -74 to -25 (10) Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-28 02/01/08

20 Mil. Head JULY 1 BEEF COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Points to a January 1,2009 number lower than January 1, Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-46 01/30/06

21 Drought and high inputs continue to cause herd reductions BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head Avg JAN APR JUL OCT C-S-34 07/18/08

22 Fewer Cows = Smaller Calf Crop Fewer Supplies Mil. Head CALF CROP U.S., Annual Smallest calf crop since Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA/NASS

23 $/ton Fertilizer Prices (and 2009) $1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $500 $300 $ Apr-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Nitrogen (AN) Phosphorous (DAP) Potash (Muriate)

24 $/Gallon Fuel Prices $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ Diesel (bulk) Jul-08

25 Impact of Fuel & Fertilizer Prices on Cost of Production $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $ # Calf ($/Cwt.) Hay ($/ton)

26 Incentives to Expand Beef Herd

27 Incentives to Expand Beef Herd

28 Projected Prices 2009 and Beyond $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $ GA 500# steer GA 750# steer Choice fed steer GA Slaughter cow Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

29 Other Issues Southeast More reliant on fertilizer Wider basis Increasing land values Increasing demand for beef from alternative production systems Natural Organic Grass-fed Increasing demand for locally produced foods Animal welfare MCOOL/NAIS

30 Pork Situation & Outlook

31 Pork Situation

32 Pork Situation Record supplies in UNBELIEVABLE export demand has supported prices. Historically high input prices have certainly taken a toll on profits.

33 Returns to farrow-finish hog producers have been negative for most of the past year! May Source: IA State University Sep 2005 May Sep 2006 May Sep 2007 May Sep 2008 May

34 Thou. Head HOG SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 2,500 2,300 2,100 Avg ,900 1, ,500 JAN APR JUL OCT H-S-05 09/12/08

35 Mil. Pounds 530 PORK PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly 480 Avg JAN APR JUL OCT M-S-19 09/15/08

36 BARROW AND GILT PRICES Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly $ Per Cwt Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center H-P-09 08/14/08

37 U S NET PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center I-N-32 09/12/08

38 Pork Summary Record supplies of pork in Supplies will be reduced some in Packing capacity may be a concern this fall. Prices will be pressured this fall. Prices should be stable to higher next year. High input prices will continue to plague producers.

39 Poultry Situation and Outlook

40 Cents Per Pound 90 BROILER PRICES 12-City Composite, Weekly 85 Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center P-P-01 09/16/08

41 These prices do not tell the whole story! Breast prices are running 10.5% lower than last year. Leg and wing prices are carrying the water for broilers this year. Exports have played a major role in moving the dark meats. Cents Per Pound Cents Per Pound JAN JAN WHOLESALE WHOLESALE CHICKEN CHICKEN BREAST LEG PRICES PRICES Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly APR APR Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JUL JUL OCT OCT Avg. Avg

Billion Pounds RTC 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 July 2008 forward EMI Analytics forecast US Broiler Exports, Annual Other Romania Korea Ukraine Cuba

42 Billion Pounds RTC July 2008 forward EMI Analytics forecast US Broiler Exports, Annual Other Romania Korea Ukraine Cuba Lithuania Angola Taiwan Turkey Canada Mexico EMI Analytics, All Rights Reserved China Russia

43 cents/lb What s the impact of higher feed-grain prices on broilers? Since 2006 Corn prices up 67% Soybean meal prices up 206% Broiler costs up 137% US Broiler Production Cost (WOG basis) EMI Analytics model, weighted average, with OH & interest 2006 avg. 60 cents 2007 avg. 68 cents 2008 avg. 81 cents 2009 avg. 82 cents Sept 2008 forward forecast EMI Analytics, All Rights Reserved

45 Production will be lower the rest of the year. Broiler egg sets down. Broiler chick placements down. Total production for 2008 will be up only 2.3%. Will actually see a decrease in production in Quarterly Broiler Production Projected

46 Poultry Price Forecast Broiler prices should remain in the lower $80s. Breast prices will continue to struggle. Legs and wing prices should stabilize. HOWEVER, disruptions in the export market could be very problematic.

47 Bil. Pounds TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION Quarterly Avg. 2002/ JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 2009 M-S-31 07/14/08

48 Red Meat and Poultry Summary Record meat supplies this year. Q3-Q4 could be a big problem for pork supplies. Smaller beef, pork and poultry supplies in Exports for all meats continue to be favorable. All meat prices should remain steady to improving for the remainder of this year and next year. HOWEVER, if the economy continues to weaken all bets are off.

49 QUESTIONS?

Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock

Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock Current Situation $ Per Cwt. 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES 500-600 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly