Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research

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1 Steve Freed Vice President ADMIS Research Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the express written consent of ADM Investor Services, Inc. is strictly prohibited. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADM Investor Services, Inc. ("ADMIS") and in no way should be construed to be information provided by Archer Daniels Midland Company. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc. 10/4/2013

2 World Population Density

3 Basic supply/ demand input World Macro- Economic Conditions Weather Investments China Long term US/World supply needs

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8 Million Metric Tonnes 600 World Ending Stocks - Corn, Soybeans, Wheat Soybeans Wheat Corn 100 0

9 World Consumption Snapshot in Million Tonnes 2000/ /2016 % Change 2014/ /2016 % Change 2016/2017 Forecast Population (Bil) % % 7.92 Palm Oil % % 64.0 Soybean Oil % % Soybean Meal % % Corn % % Wheat % % Pork % % Beef & Veal % % Milk % %

10 Monthly nearby soybean futures chart Horizontal lines is USDA est of 2016 range Prices near pre 2008 resistance 10

11 May soybean Board crush margins 11

12 cents / bu Soybean Average Price Range Daily vs USDA S&D Report Days Daily Average USDA S&D Report Days

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16 China Soybean - Net Imports (Million Metric Tonnes)

17 Trade - Million Metric Tonnes China Soybean Imports vs. US Percent Share of World Exports Trade US Share (%) US Share (%)

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19 Trade - Million Metric Tonnes World Soybean Trade vs. US Percent Share Trade US Share (%) US Share (%)

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24 Soybean - Farmer Percent Marketing s / / Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Month of Crop Year

25 $900 $800 $700 Soybeans Revenues and Costs, Central Illinois High Productivity Farmland, Gross revenue Total non-land costs Total Costs $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0

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28 Nearby monthly soyoil futures chart 28

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31 Monthly nearby soymeal futures chart 31

32 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND 2015/ / /17 USDA Office of Chief Economist (OCE) Forecast Released February 2016 US SOYBEANS USDA USDA February Chief Hightower S&D Report Economis Estimate 2017/ / / / / / / / /26 Planted Area (M Acres) Harvested Area (Acres) Yield (Bu/Acre) Beginning Stocks (M Bu) Production 3,930 3,785 3,867 3,810 3,850 3,890 3,920 3,940 3,980 4,020 4,035 4,065 Imports Supply,Total 4,150 4,280 4,347 4,261 4,262 4,268 4,273 4,269 4,285 4,320 4,335 4,360 Crushings 1,880 1,910 1,880 1,920 1,940 1,960 1,980 1,995 2,005 2,020 2,030 2,045 Exports 1,690 1,825 1,650 1,835 1,850 1,860 1,870 1,875 1,885 1,905 1,915 1,925 Seed and Residual Use, Total 3,701 3,859 3,661 3,879 3,914 3,945 3,974 3,994 4,015 4,050 4,070 4,094 Ending Stocks Stocks/Use Ratio 12.2% 10.9% 18.7% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2% 7.5% 6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5%

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35 2016 Weather Will Different For Many Areas Relative To That Of Last Year. Wetter - Biased Conditions Are Expected This Year In Southeast Asia, Europe And The Western CIS And Northern South America. The Drier Biased Areas Will Be In Argentina, The Southern U.S. Plains, Northwestern Africa, Eastern Spain, South Africa And Possibly Western Australia (Later In The Winter And Early Spring Seasons).

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37 China Consumption Snapshot 2000/ /2015 % Change 2013/ /2015 % Change 2015/2016 Forecast Population (Bil) % % 1.38 Palm Oil % % 5.75 Soybean Oil % % Soybean Meal % % Corn % % Wheat % % Pork % % Beef & Veal % % 7.35 Milk % % Sugar % % 17.50

38 Near-term outlook China grain and cotton imports slow as Chinese authorities seek to dispose of stockpiles Allow internal prices to decline Limit imports when possible Subsidize processors? Oilseed imports remain strong China s soybean production may rebound slightly Domestic supply of rapeseed and cottonseed plunging Import demand for meats strong High grain prices mean high production costs for livestock Environmental concerns constrain livestock production High value of the U.S. dollar versus competitor countries remains a disadvantage for U.S. exports

39 10-year outlook Robust demand income growth, urbanization, consumption patterns shaped by new habits, preferences and prices Supply depends on an ambitious makeover for Chinese agriculture A new great leap to capital-intensive, high-tech farming faces institutional obstacles Environmental and resource protection constrain production Markets for a new era e-commerce upgrading inspection/quarantine to accommodate increased trade Overseas investment by Chinese companies to procure food supply, technology, and attain geopolitical objectives Conflict between rigid food security concerns and flexibility needed for modern food market

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