Coping Strategies with Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties for Crop Yield 1. Lourdes V. Tibig 2

Transcription

1 Coping Strategies with Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties for Crop Yield 1 by Lourdes V. Tibig 2 1 Presented at the International Workshop on Coping with Agrometeorological Risks and Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities, New Delhi, India on October Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines

2 coping strategies with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties for crop yield optimal and sustainable use of resources; change in cultural practices/improved farming practices; modification of resource potential, including controlled micro-climates; local indigenous knowledge systems/networks; access to extension services; technological innovations such as new/ modified approaches; and others, such as resilience and divestment in natural capital.

3 Optimal and sustainable utilization of resources Crop diversification change(s) in crops/varieties/cropping, altering crop mix, practice of different cropping, intercropping, mixed/sequential / ratoon cropping, rotation of crops; use of cash crops that have secure markets

4 Objectives of crop diversification: match physiological requirements of crops with specific micro-environment; meet domestic consumption requirements, exploit morphological complementarities and compensatory behavior of crop components; reduce income risk; and improve aggregate production

5 types horizontal broadening of the base of the system addition of more crops to the system vertical upstream and downstream activities of a crop (ex: fruits to frozen fruits/ juices/syrup, etc.)

6 varietal diversification spread risk of loss due to period-specific stresses reduce risk of loss due to pests/diseases use of varieties with varying maturities exploit genetic variability in resistance / tolerance to biotic stresses

7 reduce risk of loss due to stresses associated with land types match crops to microenvironments reduce risk of loss due to change of environment (ex. rainfall, growing seasons) fit crop requirements

8 Change in cultural/farming practices adjustments in agricultural inputs; flexible calendar of farming operations; integrating crops with trees/aquaculture/livestock; and use of farming systems like organic/precision farming.

9 Modification of resource potential, including controlled micro-climates through field afforestation (ex: windbreaks) changes in location of crops local indigenous knowledge systems farmer-developed techniques from years of observations, experiments and experiences adapting/marrying these techniques with imaginative approaches that fit cultures of indigenous communities (ex: sustainable temperate fruit industry in Thailand, Vietnam and Laos) (Source: ACIAR)

10 Technological innovations direct rice seeding

11 Delayed rainfall and transplanting risk (Source: IRRI)

12 raised cropping beds (Pakistan and India) (Source: ACIAR)

13 Integrated weed management (India) (Source: ACIAR)

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15 access to extension services permits adapting cropping systems to a wider range of climatic regions direct rice seeding for optimal timing of different rice varieties and to allow for more than one crop

16 resilience/divestment of natural capital

17 Some specific examples of coping strategies Canada permits adapting cropping systems to a wider range of climatic regions - changes in cropping patterns (crop substitution, new areas/crops, etc.) adoption of new technologies - Improved land and water resource mgmt (fallow/tillage practices, etc.) altering farming calendar changing intensification of production to address changes in the environment changing location of crop production others ( use of SCF, crop insurance, etc.)

18 Okanagan Valley wine production fruit thinning dropping crop (reducing cropload risk-reducing technologies (e.g. wind machines)

19 United States Mississippi use of differing farming systems - precision farming (site-specific management system); - organic farming which relies upon crop rotation, crop residues, biological pest control; etc.; - low-input farming system which optimizes on-farm resources whole farm management - new crops/combinations - use of proven varieties - careful planning to maximize resources

20 Latin America Andes of Peru and Bolivia highlands / agropastoral diversification among crops, and between crops and livestock use of local knowledge systems resilience/divestment in natural capital livelihood strategies (niche markets/cash crops/value added crops, building buffers, etc.)

21 Africa West Africa semiarid tropics (WASAT) diversification (of crops, cultivars, location match crops to micro-environments sequential decision-making to correspond to changes in environment

22 Senegal diffusion of sustainable technologies Uganda use of traditional knowledge of micro-environment, diversification / intensification crop diversity through integration of farmers knowledge with scientific assessment

23 Asia Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam crop diversification - horizontal (multiple cropping/ high cropping intensities/diversified cropping systems, alternate crops - vertical - use of ditch and dike system of farming (Vietnam) - advanced techniques of rice farming

24 Philippine experiences The map of the Philippines

25 Climate map

26 arable land per capita : agriculture : 1/6 GDP rice area : 4 M ha irrigated rainfed : : 2.67 M ha 1.33 M ha

27 1960 s : Green Revolution (technology innovation - centered on HYVS - high inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation - results: high yields BUT low income for farmers greater challenges more frequent pest outbreaks, elimination of natural predators, traditional varieties displaced by monocrops, seeds replaced by commercial ones, loss of farmers assets

28 Mid-1980s : MASIPAG development approach - five strategies farmers and scientists partnership integration of scientists technical knowledge with farmers experiences/knowledge farmers prioritize their needs, farmer-led research and training through trial farms, farmer-to-farmer mode of technology transfer, and advocacy for sustainable farming.

29 Initial results Higher yields of MASIPAG- bred rice, Less inputs more income to farmers, Ancillary benefits to environment, and Alternative pest management more diverse food sources

30 Table 1. Comparison of Inputs used in organic MASIPAG farming versus conventional farming (Source: Medina, 2002) Land preparation Seeds Weeding Herbicide Insecticide Yield/Gross income: 4560kg (PhP 7.40/kg) /4620kg (PhP 7.40/kg) Net income Item Straw application Uprooting/transplanting Seed broadcast/seedbed Chemical Fertilizer Harvesting/threshing Total production cost Net profit : cost ratio 0 1,500 3, ,829 3,600 2,948 13,519 20, Conventional (Pesos) , , ,948 7,148 27, MASIPAG (Pesos) 1 Cost and return analysis per hectare of conventional farming (HVY) and organic MASIPAG RICE (Sinayawan, Valencia, Bukidnon, 1977) 1 One US$=51.5 Pesos (as of Feb. 2002)

31 current practice at farm level: at least 3 rice varieties (to meet diverse agroecological conditions) vegetable trees/fruits, trees avoids external chemical inputs Farmers mass-produce their seeds an ecological design prevent pest outbreak genetic conservation

32 The organic farming in the Banaue rice terraces map of the rice terraces

33 Direct-seeded rice map of Indo-Gangetic Plains

34 Source: IRRI

35 Diversified vs monoculture More economically and ecologically resilient farms; Farmers can spread economic risk and are less susceptible to price fluctuations associated with changes in supply and demand; and Can buffer a farm

36 - Crop rotation can be used to suppress weeds, pathogens and insect pests; - Cover crops in orchards/vineyards can buffer the system against pest infestations by increasing beneficial anthropod populations; - Using a variety of cover crops protect against the failure of a particular species to grow and attract a wide range of beneficial anthropods; and - Pest-resistant crops when chosen carefully are tolerant of existing soil and site conditions.

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